News: link here:
Predicted on the blog back in August, 2022. This has been another open-book test.
Monday, October 10, 2022
An Ovintiv Rolla Well Maintains Nice Production Through First Nine Months; 375K Bbls Crude Oil In Ten Months -- October 10, 2022
The well
- 38082, conf-->drl/drl, Ovintiv, Rolla 152-97-1-12-5HLW, Westberg, first production, 11/21; t--; cum 15K over first eight days; cum 375K 8/22;
Full production:
| Pool | Date | Days | BBLS Oil | Runs | BBLS Water | MCF Prod | MCF Sold | Vent/Flare |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAKKEN | 8-2022 | 31 | 22185 | 22191 | 15109 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 7-2022 | 31 | 23378 | 23537 | 17010 | 99483 | 96797 | 2686 |
| BAKKEN | 6-2022 | 30 | 28022 | 27797 | 18677 | 115692 | 114274 | 1418 |
| BAKKEN | 5-2022 | 31 | 32889 | 33153 | 18564 | 109173 | 108209 | 964 |
| BAKKEN | 4-2022 | 27 | 32096 | 32137 | 16652 | 86840 | 86699 | 141 |
| BAKKEN | 3-2022 | 31 | 49935 | 49764 | 23632 | 123371 | 122822 | 549 |
| BAKKEN | 2-2022 | 28 | 51907 | 52101 | 23775 | 113811 | 113811 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 1-2022 | 31 | 58746 | 58668 | 27899 | 127661 | 127661 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 12-2021 | 31 | 61042 | 61012 | 28899 | 119074 | 118877 | 197 |
| BAKKEN | 11-2021 | 8 | 14645 | 14168 | 4898 | 27237 | 27120 | 117 |
The NDIC Map -- Really Cool -- October 10, 2022
Use the "+/-" icons to zoom in / zoom out.
For blogging, there some features of the previous map app I liked better but, wow, this new map app is incredible.
One example: measuring distance.
There are five "icons/emojis" below the search box.
The middle one, a ruler, is for measuring distance.
Example:
First, using the "+/1" emojis/icons, zoom in to area of interest.
Then, click on the "ruler."
When the next dialogue box opens up, click on the second icon/emoji from the left, another ruler, with left/right arrows.
The default: miles. But you can measure distance in a number of units, including feet.
You have to leave that dialogue box open when using it / measuring distance.
Click on "origin."
A green dot will appear.
Now move mouse to next spot, and click. Voila. Distance.
Now, and this is the great part, Move the mouse to the next spot and click and get the updated distance.
Lots of fun. Couldn't due it with the previous mapping app.
If you close the map app by clicking on the "x" the distance app will cease functioning.
To clear all that from the map, open the distance app again, and click on "clear."
CLR Now Reporting The Harrisburg Wells In Indian Hill, South Of Williston, South Of The River -- October 10, 2022
The CLR Harrisburg wells are tracked here.
The well:
- 37499, loc/A, CLR, Harrisburg 6-34H, Indian Hill, t--; cum 144K 8/22;
Production:
| Pool | Date | Days | BBLS Oil | Runs | BBLS Water | MCF Prod | MCF Sold | Vent/Flare |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAKKEN | 8-2022 | 26 | 16352 | 16662 | 20848 | 15561 | 13839 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 7-2022 | 31 | 13426 | 13129 | 22053 | 13209 | 11313 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 6-2022 | 30 | 11996 | 11941 | 19330 | 10724 | 8548 | 480 |
| BAKKEN | 5-2022 | 31 | 12043 | 12357 | 21364 | 7724 | 7246 | 100 |
| BAKKEN | 4-2022 | 26 | 7949 | 7745 | 15938 | 4566 | 4269 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 3-2022 | 31 | 23172 | 23253 | 31484 | 17170 | 16761 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 2-2022 | 12 | 7642 | 7433 | 13164 | 6284 | 6127 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 1-2022 | 13 | 68 | 137 | 22 | 1391 | 1383 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 12-2021 | 27 | 17153 | 17263 | 24752 | 14298 | 14025 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 11-2021 | 30 | 31031 | 31503 | 45738 | 25859 | 25461 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 10-2021 | 6 | 3311 | 2510 | 6220 | 2594 | 2457 | 73 |
Halo Effect In Heart Butte -- October 10, 2022
Now, the halo effect on the first well (?) on this pad:
- 20215, 2,140, Rimrock, FBIR Guyblackhawk 24X-27B, Heart Butte, t2/12; cum 488K 8/22;
Recent production:
| Pool | Date | Days | BBLS Oil | Runs | BBLS Water | MCF Prod | MCF Sold | Vent/Flare |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAKKEN | 8-2022 | 31 | 1666 | 1666 | 2165 | 680 | 451 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 7-2022 | 31 | 1968 | 1966 | 2296 | 699 | 470 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 6-2022 | 30 | 1999 | 1996 | 1467 | 752 | 539 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 5-2022 | 31 | 2446 | 2439 | 1257 | 993 | 762 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 4-2022 | 29 | 2497 | 2504 | 2007 | 817 | 606 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 3-2022 | 31 | 2882 | 2887 | 1731 | 909 | 678 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 2-2022 | 28 | 2900 | 2904 | 1752 | 892 | 689 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 1-2022 | 31 | 3844 | 3843 | 2357 | 892 | 661 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 12-2021 | 31 | 4220 | 4220 | 2928 | 712 | 481 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 11-2021 | 30 | 4586 | 4583 | 3738 | 1046 | 822 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 10-2021 | 31 | 3739 | 3729 | 5822 | 1781 | 1550 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 9-2021 | 28 | 3377 | 3360 | 4853 | 1626 | 1429 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 8-2021 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 7-2021 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 6-2021 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 5-2021 | 0 | 0 | 59 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 4-2021 | 9 | 432 | 436 | 455 | 685 | 586 | 99 |
| BAKKEN | 3-2021 | 28 | 1494 | 1507 | 1259 | 2194 | 2194 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 2-2021 | 28 | 1626 | 1600 | 1382 | 2573 | 2549 | 24 |
| BAKKEN | 1-2021 | 31 | 1610 | 1610 | 247 | 1775 | 1608 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 12-2020 | 27 | 1151 | 1193 | 212 | 1351 | 1207 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 11-2020 | 30 | 1629 | 1601 | 245 | 1567 | 1361 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 10-2020 | 31 | 1707 | 1740 | 193 | 1626 | 1381 | 0 |
Production Update On A Huge Rimrock Well In Heart Butte -- October 10, 2022
The well:
- 36928, conf, Rimrock, FBIR Guyblackhawk 24X-27D, Heart Butte, HUGE WELL, 74K 8/21; first production, 7/21; t--; cum 78K 8/21; cum 383K 8/22;
Full production profile:
| Pool | Date | Days | BBLS Oil | Runs | BBLS Water | MCF Prod | MCF Sold | Vent/Flare |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAKKEN | 8-2022 | 31 | 11148 | 11160 | 8010 | 12646 | 12418 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 7-2022 | 31 | 14078 | 14094 | 9200 | 14556 | 14326 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 6-2022 | 30 | 16923 | 16886 | 10952 | 16817 | 16593 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 5-2022 | 31 | 19249 | 19177 | 13223 | 14629 | 14398 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 4-2022 | 25 | 16465 | 16553 | 12964 | 14424 | 14254 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 3-2022 | 31 | 24078 | 24119 | 17288 | 21050 | 20819 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 2-2022 | 28 | 24127 | 24133 | 16166 | 17812 | 17609 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 1-2022 | 31 | 29028 | 29030 | 22587 | 20500 | 17150 | 3119 |
| BAKKEN | 12-2021 | 31 | 33613 | 33611 | 25877 | 21443 | 21213 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 11-2021 | 30 | 35447 | 35460 | 27901 | 22918 | 22695 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 10-2021 | 30 | 34451 | 34425 | 30087 | 21671 | 20308 | 1144 |
| BAKKEN | 9-2021 | 30 | 45070 | 45180 | 34325 | 28701 | 26646 | 1831 |
| BAKKEN | 8-2021 | 31 | 73925 | 74347 | 54617 | 47272 | 41869 | 5172 |
| BAKKEN | 7-2021 | 2 | 4765 | 4011 | 3926 | 2976 | 1513 | 1463 |
US Diesel Inventories -- October 10, 2022
Again, it seems the talk is worse than the data. But ... it's the big story this year ...
**************************
Inventories
After a decade of following this stuff, I'm losing interest in tracking inventories. Actually, that's not correct. I continue to have interest in inventories as data points. However, inventory data without context is not helpful. And, worse, perhaps inventory of anything is the wrong metric. Yes, there is a much, much better metric, which I've talked about on numerous occasions.
Hypothetical example:
- September, 2021: days of supply -- 14 days
- anticipated problems? Three hurricanes to knock out Gulf refiners
- September, 2022: days of supply -- 28 days
- anticipated problems? None.
NIP Day -- National Indigenous People's Day
How about them Cowboys:
- they just beat the world champions; Cowboys? Back-up quarterback.
- and, it was not even close: 22 - 10, with any number of great plays
- Cooper Rush: #2 on the Sports Center top ten newsreel!
- most interesting: quarterback not credited with win? Who gets the credit for the win? Everyone else:
- the team -- it was a "team effort"
- defensive unit
- the head coach
- the team's owner
- the fans
- the Dallas Cowboys cheerleaders
- the guy in section 834 selling hot dogs
Stephen A:
- after the Cowboys' win, another bad morning for Stephen A. LOL.
Have we just seen the end of the on-side kick?
- call for a "fair catch" seems to be the "trick"
Focus on fracking: posted.
- oil price jumps 17% on OPEC supply cut;
- natural gas stores see largest autumn increase on record;
- US oil supplies at a 20½ year low;
- SPR at a 38 year low;
- gasoline supplies at eight year low with gasoline demand at a 9 month high;
- total oil + oil products supplies at a 17 year low..
Reading the blog: after posting this story often during the past year, "everyone" is now reporting it.
- the big energy story this year: not gasoline, not natural gas, but diesel
- from Bloomberg this morning
The Saudi Arabian production cut:
- domestic:
Some of the reduction in output could be soaked up by lower domestic demand as temperatures ease. Domestic consumption of crude in power generation swings seasonally by more than 350,000 barrels a day. The biggest falls usually occur in October or November, depending on when the weather begins to cool. But over the past five years the average drop in the kingdom’s direct use of crude between October and November has been less than 75,000 barrels a day. So lower domestic use is unlikely to soak up more than 20% of the output reduction.
- Asia: no change
- US:
It looks like the cut going to hit buyers in Europe or the US.In contrast to other regions, Saudi Arabia raised prices for its crude being delivered across the Atlantic — exports to the US are currently running at just over 400,000 barrels a day. The kingdom may be adding injury to insult by focusing its output cut on shipments to the US.
Bloomberg fails to mention that California will feel the greatest impact.
Sakhalin-1: see this post for background.
- apparently this is not sitting well with Japan ; why does this not surprise me? LOL.
- it looks like Putin has picked another fight -- this one with Japan
********************************
Back to the Bakken
The Far Side: link here.
Active rigs: 44.
WTI:
Natural gas:
Monday, October 10, 2022: 21 for the month, 21 for the quarter, 466 for the year
38810, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Fantuz 3-13-24-158N-100W-MBH,
38398, conf, Hess, EN-J Horst 154-93-1112H-2,
Sunday, October 9, 2022: 19 for the month, 19 for the quarter, 464 for the year
38809, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Defrance 4-12-1-158N-100W-MBH,
38397, conf, Hess, EN-J Horst-154-93-1112H-1,
37846, conf, Whiting, Maki 11-27-2H,
Saturday, October 8, 2022: 16 for the month, 16 for the quarter, 461 for the year
38808, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Fantuz 4-13-24-158N-100W-MBH,
RBN Energy: US LNG feedgas volumes swing wildly ahead of peak winter demand.
Total U.S. LNG export capacity is around 12 Bcf/d, including the still-commissioning-but-nearly-complete Calcasieu Pass. About 13.5 Bcf/d of U.S. natural gas supplies, or feedgas, is required to produce that much LNG, but feedgas demand has averaged just 10.5 Bcf/d over the past week despite still-soaring global gas prices and an undersupplied global LNG market.
Two U.S. terminals are currently offline: Freeport LNG, which has been out of service since an explosion and fire in June, and now Cove Point LNG, which shut for annual maintenance October 1, 2022.
Beyond those outages, which have taken about 2.75 Bcf/d of demand out of commission, LNG feedgas volumes have been extremely volatile, swinging as much as 2 Bcf/d within a week.
Don’t expect this to last, however — with winter approaching, the return of both Freeport and Cove Point on the horizon, and the full startup of Calcasieu Pass in sight, feedgas demand will likely rise to new heights and soon consistently top 13 Bcf/d. In today’s RBN blog we take a closer look at the recent volatility in LNG feedgas and the potential demand coming this winter.
Tyson Foods Leaving Chicago -- October 10, 2022
Back in 2017, the Fortune 500 companies in Illinois at this link.
Since then, at least three have left: Caterpillar, Citadel and Boeing.
Now a fourth large company is leaving Chicago: Tyson Foods. Link here.
The poultry producer said Wednesday that it's bringing together its corporate employees at its global headquarters in Arkansas, resulting in the closure of three offices, including downtown Chicago, Downers Grove, Illinois, and Dakota Dunes in South Dakota.
Roughly 1,000 employees work in the three offices and will begin relocation in early next year.
"Bringing our talented corporate team members and businesses together under one roof unlocks greater opportunities to share perspectives and ideas, while also enabling us to act quickly to solve problems and provide the innovative products solutions that our customers deserve and value," said CEO Donnie King in a release.
Tyson's move serves another blow for Chicago's image. McDonald's, which has its headquarters there, criticized the city for crime. CEO Chris Kempczinski recently said that crime is "seeping into every corner of our city" and he said that he's frequently asked "what's going on in Chicago?"
There may be some "back to office" issues, also, with the pandemic now over.
Dolly Parton: One Book Per Child Under Age Of Five -- October 10, 2022
Available in several states now, including Oregon. Apparently, local organizations "manage" the programs, such as local libraries.
Link to "Imagination Library."
