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Monday, October 10, 2022

Ticker: DEN -- October 10, 2022

News: link here:


Predicted on the blog back in August, 2022. This has been another open-book test.

An Ovintiv Rolla Well Maintains Nice Production Through First Nine Months; 375K Bbls Crude Oil In Ten Months -- October 10, 2022

 The well

  • 38082, conf-->drl/drl, Ovintiv, Rolla 152-97-1-12-5HLW, Westberg, first production, 11/21; t--; cum 15K over first eight days; cum 375K 8/22;

Full production:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN8-202231221852219115109000
BAKKEN7-20223123378235371701099483967972686
BAKKEN6-2022302802227797186771156921142741418
BAKKEN5-202231328893315318564109173108209964
BAKKEN4-2022273209632137166528684086699141
BAKKEN3-202231499354976423632123371122822549
BAKKEN2-2022285190752101237751138111138110
BAKKEN1-2022315874658668278991276611276610
BAKKEN12-202131610426101228899119074118877197
BAKKEN11-20218146451416848982723727120117

The NDIC Map -- Really Cool -- October 10, 2022

Link to the map here.

Use the "+/-" icons to zoom in / zoom out.

For blogging, there some features of the previous map app I liked better but, wow, this new map app is incredible.

One example: measuring distance.

There are five "icons/emojis" below the search box.

The middle one, a ruler, is for measuring distance.

Example:

First, using the "+/1" emojis/icons, zoom in to area of interest.

Then, click on the "ruler."

When the next dialogue box opens up, click on the second icon/emoji from the left, another ruler, with left/right arrows.

The default: miles. But you can measure distance in a number of units, including feet

You have to leave that dialogue box open when using it / measuring distance.

Click on "origin."

A green dot will appear.

Now move mouse to next spot, and click. Voila. Distance.

Now, and this is the great part, Move the mouse to the next spot and click and get the updated distance. 

Lots of fun. Couldn't due it with the previous mapping app. 

If you close the map app by clicking on the "x" the distance app will cease functioning.

To clear all that from the map, open the distance app again, and click on "clear."

CLR Now Reporting The Harrisburg Wells In Indian Hill, South Of Williston, South Of The River -- October 10, 2022

The CLR Harrisburg wells are tracked here.

The well:

  • 37499, loc/A, CLR, Harrisburg 6-34H, Indian Hill, t--; cum 144K 8/22;

Production:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN8-20222616352166622084815561138390
BAKKEN7-20223113426131292205313209113130
BAKKEN6-202230119961194119330107248548480
BAKKEN5-20223112043123572136477247246100
BAKKEN4-2022267949774515938456642690
BAKKEN3-20223123172232533148417170167610
BAKKEN2-2022127642743313164628461270
BAKKEN1-2022136813722139113830
BAKKEN12-20212717153172632475214298140250
BAKKEN11-20213031031315034573825859254610
BAKKEN10-202163311251062202594245773

Halo Effect In Heart Butte -- October 10, 2022

See this note.

Now, the halo effect on the first well (?) on this pad: 

  • 20215, 2,140, Rimrock, FBIR Guyblackhawk 24X-27B, Heart Butte, t2/12; cum 488K 8/22;

Recent production:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN8-2022311666166621656804510
BAKKEN7-2022311968196622966994700
BAKKEN6-2022301999199614677525390
BAKKEN5-2022312446243912579937620
BAKKEN4-2022292497250420078176060
BAKKEN3-2022312882288717319096780
BAKKEN2-2022282900290417528926890
BAKKEN1-2022313844384323578926610
BAKKEN12-2021314220422029287124810
BAKKEN11-20213045864583373810468220
BAKKEN10-202131373937295822178115500
BAKKEN9-202128337733604853162614290
BAKKEN8-20210000000
BAKKEN7-20210000000
BAKKEN6-20210000000
BAKKEN5-202100590000
BAKKEN4-2021943243645568558699
BAKKEN3-202128149415071259219421940
BAKKEN2-2021281626160013822573254924
BAKKEN1-20213116101610247177516080
BAKKEN12-20202711511193212135112070
BAKKEN11-20203016291601245156713610
BAKKEN10-20203117071740193162613810

Production Update On A Huge Rimrock Well In Heart Butte -- October 10, 2022

The well:

  • 36928, conf, Rimrock, FBIR Guyblackhawk 24X-27D, Heart Butte, HUGE WELL, 74K 8/21; first production, 7/21; t--; cum 78K 8/21; cum 383K 8/22;

Full production profile:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN8-2022311114811160801012646124180
BAKKEN7-2022311407814094920014556143260
BAKKEN6-20223016923168861095216817165930
BAKKEN5-20223119249191771322314629143980
BAKKEN4-20222516465165531296414424142540
BAKKEN3-20223124078241191728821050208190
BAKKEN2-20222824127241331616617812176090
BAKKEN1-20223129028290302258720500171503119
BAKKEN12-20213133613336112587721443212130
BAKKEN11-20213035447354602790122918226950
BAKKEN10-20213034451344253008721671203081144
BAKKEN9-20213045070451803432528701266461831
BAKKEN8-20213173925743475461747272418695172
BAKKEN7-20212476540113926297615131463

Fuel Crisis In France -- October 10, 2022

Fuel crisis in France, link here.


*********
Let's Not Panic

Link here

I guess you can say that when you travel by limousine, helicopter, and fixed-wing aircraft. And your salary is guaranteed.

The Apple Page -- October 10, 2022

From The WSJ:

Sales, 3Q22 (4th quarter for Apple), link here. Incredible.


Apple free cash flow, link here: imagine -- if you think XOM is going to break records with FCF, imagine Apple doubling that.


***********************
The Berries Went First

US Diesel Inventories -- October 10, 2022

Link here.

Again, it seems the talk is worse than the data. But ... it's the big story this year ...


**************************
Inventories

After a decade of following this stuff, I'm losing interest in tracking inventories. Actually, that's not correct. I continue to have interest in inventories as data points. However, inventory data without context is not helpful. And, worse, perhaps inventory of anything is the wrong metric. Yes, there is a much, much better metric, which I've talked about on numerous occasions.

Here's US gasoline inventory


Hypothetical example:
  • September, 2021: days of supply -- 14 days
    • anticipated problems? Three hurricanes to knock out Gulf refiners
  • September, 2022: days of supply -- 28 days
    • anticipated problems? None.

NIP Day -- National Indigenous People's Day

How about them Cowboys:

  • they just beat the world champions; Cowboys? Back-up quarterback.
    • and, it was not even close: 22 - 10, with any number of great plays
    • Cooper Rush: #2 on the Sports Center top ten newsreel!
  • most interesting: quarterback not credited with win? Who gets the credit for the win? Everyone else:
    • the team -- it was a "team effort"
    • defensive unit
    • the head coach
    • the team's owner
    • the fans
    • the Dallas Cowboys cheerleaders
    • the guy in section 834 selling hot dogs

Stephen A:

  • after the Cowboys' win, another bad morning for Stephen A. LOL.

Have we just seen the end of the on-side kick?

  • call for a "fair catch" seems to be the "trick"

Focus on fracking: posted.

  • oil price jumps 17% on OPEC supply cut; 
  • natural gas stores see largest autumn increase on record; 
  • US oil supplies at a 20½ year low; 
  • SPR at a 38 year low; 
  • gasoline supplies at eight year low with gasoline demand at a 9 month high; 
  • total oil + oil products supplies at a 17 year low..

Reading the blog: after posting this story often during the past year, "everyone" is now reporting it.

  • the big energy story this year: not gasoline, not natural gas, but diesel
  • from Bloomberg this morning

The Saudi Arabian production cut:

  • domestic:

Some of the reduction in output could be soaked up by lower domestic demand as temperatures ease. Domestic consumption of crude in power generation swings seasonally by more than 350,000 barrels a day. The biggest falls usually occur in October or November, depending on when the weather begins to cool. But over the past five years the average drop in the kingdom’s direct use of crude between October and November has been less than 75,000 barrels a day. So lower domestic use is unlikely to soak up more than 20% of the output reduction.

  • Asia: no change
  • US: 

It looks like the cut going to hit buyers in Europe or the US.In contrast to other regions, Saudi Arabia raised prices for its crude being delivered across the Atlantic — exports to the US are currently running at just over 400,000 barrels  a day. The kingdom may be adding injury to insult by focusing its output cut on shipments to the US. 
Bloomberg fails to mention that California will feel the greatest impact.

Sakhalin-1: see this post for background.

  • apparently this is not sitting well with Japan ; why does this not surprise me? LOL.
  • it looks like Putin has picked another fight -- this one with Japan

********************************
Back to the Bakken

The Far Side: link here.

Active rigs: 44.

WTI:

Natural gas:

Monday, October 10, 2022: 21 for the month, 21 for the quarter, 466 for the year
38810, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Fantuz 3-13-24-158N-100W-MBH,
38398, conf, Hess, EN-J Horst 154-93-1112H-2,

Sunday, October 9, 2022: 19 for the month, 19 for the quarter, 464 for the year
38809, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Defrance 4-12-1-158N-100W-MBH,
38397, conf, Hess, EN-J Horst-154-93-1112H-1,
37846, conf, Whiting, Maki 11-27-2H,

Saturday, October 8, 2022: 16 for the month, 16 for the quarter, 461 for the year
38808, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Fantuz 4-13-24-158N-100W-MBH,

RBN Energy: US LNG feedgas volumes swing wildly ahead of peak winter demand.

Total U.S. LNG export capacity is around 12 Bcf/d, including the still-commissioning-but-nearly-complete Calcasieu Pass. About 13.5 Bcf/d of U.S. natural gas supplies, or feedgas, is required to produce that much LNG, but feedgas demand has averaged just 10.5 Bcf/d over the past week despite still-soaring global gas prices and an undersupplied global LNG market. 
Two U.S. terminals are currently offline: Freeport LNG, which has been out of service since an explosion and fire in June, and now Cove Point LNG, which shut for annual maintenance October 1, 2022. 
Beyond those outages, which have taken about 2.75 Bcf/d of demand out of commission, LNG feedgas volumes have been extremely volatile, swinging as much as 2 Bcf/d within a week. 
Don’t expect this to last, however — with winter approaching, the return of both Freeport and Cove Point on the horizon, and the full startup of Calcasieu Pass in sight, feedgas demand will likely rise to new heights and soon consistently top 13 Bcf/d. In today’s RBN blog we take a closer look at the recent volatility in LNG feedgas and the potential demand coming this winter.

Tyson Foods Leaving Chicago -- October 10, 2022

Back in 2017, the Fortune 500 companies in Illinois at this link

Since then, at least three have left: Caterpillar, Citadel and Boeing.

Now a fourth large company is leaving Chicago: Tyson Foods. Link here.

The poultry producer said Wednesday that it's bringing together its corporate employees at its global headquarters in Arkansas, resulting in the closure of three offices, including downtown Chicago, Downers Grove, Illinois, and Dakota Dunes in South Dakota
Roughly 1,000 employees work in the three offices and will begin relocation in early next year.

"Bringing our talented corporate team members and businesses together under one roof unlocks greater opportunities to share perspectives and ideas, while also enabling us to act quickly to solve problems and provide the innovative products solutions that our customers deserve and value," said CEO Donnie King in a release.

Tyson's move serves another blow for Chicago's image. McDonald's, which has its headquarters there, criticized the city for crime. CEO Chris Kempczinski recently said that crime is "seeping into every corner of our city" and he said that he's frequently asked "what's going on in Chicago?"

There may be some "back to office" issues, also, with the pandemic now over. 

Dolly Parton: One Book Per Child Under Age Of Five -- October 10, 2022

Available in several states now, including Oregon. Apparently, local organizations "manage" the programs, such as local libraries.

Link to KRON

Link to twitter.

Link to "Imagination Library."