NIP Day -- National Indigenous People's Day

How about them Cowboys:

• they just beat the world champions; Cowboys? Back-up quarterback.
• and, it was not even close: 22 - 10, with any number of great plays
• Cooper Rush: #2 on the Sports Center top ten newsreel!
  
• most interesting: quarterback not credited with win? Who gets the credit for the win? Everyone else:
• the team -- it was a "team effort"
• defensive unit
• the head coach
• the team's owner
• the fans
• the Dallas Cowboys cheerleaders
  
• the guy in section 834 selling hot dogs

Stephen A:

• after the Cowboys' win, another bad morning for Stephen A. LOL.

Have we just seen the end of the on-side kick?

• call for a "fair catch" seems to be the "trick"
  

Focus on fracking: posted.

• oil price jumps 17% on OPEC supply cut; 
• natural gas stores see largest autumn increase on record; 
• US oil supplies at a 20½ year low; 
• SPR at a 38 year low; 
• gasoline supplies at eight year low with gasoline demand at a 9 month high; 
• total oil + oil products supplies at a 17 year low..
  

Reading the blog: after posting this story often during the past year, "everyone" is now reporting it.

• the big energy story this year: not gasoline, not natural gas, but diesel
• from Bloomberg this morning

The Saudi Arabian production cut:

• domestic:

Some of the reduction in output could be soaked up by lower domestic demand as temperatures ease. Domestic consumption of crude in power generation swings seasonally by more than 350,000 barrels a day. The biggest falls usually occur in October or November, depending on when the weather begins to cool. But over the past five years the average drop in the kingdom’s direct use of crude between October and November has been less than 75,000 barrels a day. So lower domestic use is unlikely to soak up more than 20% of the output reduction.

• Asia: no change
• US: 

It looks like the cut going to hit buyers in Europe or the US.In contrast to other regions, Saudi Arabia raised prices for its crude being delivered across the Atlantic — exports to the US are currently running at just over 400,000 barrels  a day. The kingdom may be adding injury to insult by focusing its output cut on shipments to the US. 

Bloomberg fails to mention that California will feel the greatest impact.

Sakhalin-1: see this post for background.

• apparently this is not sitting well with Japan ; why does this not surprise me? LOL.
• it looks like Putin has picked another fight -- this one with Japan

********************************
Back to the Bakken

The Far Side: link here.

Active rigs: 44.

WTI:

Natural gas:

Monday, October 10, 2022: 21 for the month, 21 for the quarter, 466 for the year
38810, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Fantuz 3-13-24-158N-100W-MBH,
38398, conf, Hess, EN-J Horst 154-93-1112H-2,

Sunday, October 9, 2022: 19 for the month, 19 for the quarter, 464 for the year
38809, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Defrance 4-12-1-158N-100W-MBH,
38397, conf, Hess, EN-J Horst-154-93-1112H-1,
37846, conf, Whiting, Maki 11-27-2H,

Saturday, October 8, 2022: 16 for the month, 16 for the quarter, 461 for the year
38808, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Fantuz 4-13-24-158N-100W-MBH,

RBN Energy: US LNG feedgas volumes swing wildly ahead of peak winter demand.

Total U.S. LNG export capacity is around 12 Bcf/d, including the still-commissioning-but-nearly-complete Calcasieu Pass. About 13.5 Bcf/d of U.S. natural gas supplies, or feedgas, is required to produce that much LNG, but feedgas demand has averaged just 10.5 Bcf/d over the past week despite still-soaring global gas prices and an undersupplied global LNG market. 

Two U.S. terminals are currently offline: Freeport LNG, which has been out of service since an explosion and fire in June, and now Cove Point LNG, which shut for annual maintenance October 1, 2022. 

Beyond those outages, which have taken about 2.75 Bcf/d of demand out of commission, LNG feedgas volumes have been extremely volatile, swinging as much as 2 Bcf/d within a week. 

Don’t expect this to last, however — with winter approaching, the return of both Freeport and Cove Point on the horizon, and the full startup of Calcasieu Pass in sight, feedgas demand will likely rise to new heights and soon consistently top 13 Bcf/d. In today’s RBN blog we take a closer look at the recent volatility in LNG feedgas and the potential demand coming this winter.