Monday, January 22, 2024

Vision Pro: Early Numbers -- January 22, 2024

Locator: 46621APPLE.

See this post also.

Link here175,000 units ... so far.

Link here. 250 apps ... so far.

The ticker:


The Goose That Laid The Golden Egg -- January 22, 2024

Locator: 46620FACEBOOK.

Mother Jones has seen a 99% drop in Facebook referrals now that Meta has changed direction.

I can't claim to know with certainty what's going on and why Jeff Zuckerberg made this change but anyone that follows this story probably knows , at least in general.

Here's the story from the linked article:

Mother Jones CEO Monika Bauerlein has had a front-row seat in recent years to watch Facebook upend the media industry.

Bauerlein, who took over as CEO of the publication nine years ago, remembers when about 5 million users a month visited the Mother Jones website after coming across articles distributed on Facebook. That was in 2017.

But Facebook, now known as Meta, is out of the news business, a move that’s disrupted the traffic flow for many publications — Mother Jones has seen a 99% drop in Facebook referrals since its peak — and had disastrous consequences for some.
In September, Meta said it would “deprecate” its Facebook news tab in European countries including the U.K., France and Germany as “part of an ongoing effort to better align our investments to our products and services people value the most.”

The push away from news followed years of public relations disasters for Facebook regarding the company’s handling of misinformation and its decisions on when to cancel accounts and remove posts. Conservative politicians have long accused the company of operating with a liberal bias, while groups on the other side portrayed Facebook as instrumental in the 2016 election of Donald Trump because of how Russian operatives exploited the site to boost his candidacy.

“At this point, it seems pretty clear from the comments that executives at Facebook and Meta made that they have just decided that news is more trouble than it’s worth and that they will show people a fairly minimal amount of it,” Bauerlein said in an interview.

At Mother Jones, a 48-year-old nonprofit magazine specializing in politics and investigations, the implications were dramatic. Though Facebook had generated millions of referrals a month for Mother Jones during its heyday, in November and December it generated just over 58,000 and 67,000 visitors, respectively, for Mother Jones, down from about 172,000 and 228,000 in the same months a year earlier.

Let's see -- what was that fable all about -- the goose that laid golden eggs?

Only One New Permit Today -- January 22, 2024

Locator: 46619B.

Most interesting headlines today -- especially the acknowledgement of the incredible power consumption required by AI. "Everyone" knows that, but it hasn't really "sunk in" yet.

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: 39.

WTI: $75.19. Up 2.5% today; up $1.80 today.

new permit, #40463:

  • Operator: Oasis
  • Field: Camp (McKenzie)
  • Comments:
    • Oasis has a permit for a Lee N well in lot 12, section 5-152-101; 
      • to be sited 2976 FNL and 624 FWL.

Six permits renewed:

  • Grayson Mill (3): three Clear Creek Federal permits, Westberg, McKenzie County;
  • Petro-Hunt (2): two Arsenal Federal permits in Charbonneau oil field, McKenzie County;
  • BR: one Mary Swanson permit in Bear Den, McKenzie County.

One producing well (a DUC) reported as completed:

  • 39715, 358, Petro-Hunt, Joel Goodsen 149-102-32C-29-2H, Moline, no production;

Well of interest:

  • 28699,1,041, Petro-Hunt, Joel Goodsen 5-32-29H, Moline, t7/15; cum 206K 11/23; off line briefly.

TSM News -- Market In General: Second Consecutive Day -- All-Time Record Close -- January 22, 2024

Locator: 46618TSM.

Breaking: United Airlines -- beats on top and bottom line; stock jumps almost 7% before dropping back bit but wow, the guidance is NOT GOOD AT ALL.

I've never understood TSM as an investment.

IIRC, Warren Buffett bought TSM in the last year or so, and then "famously" sold it within six months or so when some analysts warned that China was ready to invade Taiwan.  Instead, he bought more OXY.

News today:

Tickers:



 OXY:



Meanwhile, AMD dropped 3% today on downgrade simply because it was getting ahead of its headlights:


UNP had a good day.

Recession -- The Market -- Charts -- Bull Market? January 22, 2024

Locator: 46617ECON.

A contrarian (?) on CNBC during the noon hour was still arguing that there will be a recession in 2024. His thesis: the Fed is doing a great job controlling inflation. They will not cut rates until they see labor market down to their goal but by that time it will be too late to start cutting rates, which will mean a recession. The analyst feels the labor market numbers are a lagging indicator. 

Near the close today, a Schwab spokesperson was as wishy-washy as he could possibly be. It's clear he missed the rally in 2023, and is still skittish, leaning toward a recession. CNBC moderator called him out many, many times. Poor, poor interviewee / analyst. The longer the interview lasted, the worst it got. What a disappointment. Direct question: what will the Fed do this year? What will the market do this year? What is your thesis going forward? Answer: it all depends. We will know next year. LOL. I hope he’s not your broker. LOL.

From tipranks:


 


Buffett Watch -- January 22, 2024

Locator: 46616BRK.

Link here.

Undated.

Seems to be current as of January 17, 2024.

Fifty-one tickers.

Percent of portfolio:

  • AAPL: 48.2%
  • BofA: 9.1%
  • AMEX: 7.6%
  • KO: 6.5%
  • CVX: 4.2%
  • OXY: 3.7%
  • Kraft Heinz: 3.2%
  • Moody's 2.6%
  • Itochu: 1.4%
  • Mitsui: 1.4%

All the rest below 1%.

Including:

  • Atlanta Braves, BATRK, $8,858,578; 0.0% of portfolio
  • Vanguard 500 Index Fund ETF, VOO, $19,131,130; 0.0%
  • SPY: $19,073,540; 0.0%
  • NVR: $81,173,049; 0.0%
  • Lennar Corp Class B: LEN.B, $21,659,121; 0.0%

Re-Posting: Respiratory Illnesses Update -- January 22, 2024

Locator: 46596FLU. 

Updates

January 22, 2024: weatherbug, link here. Wow, what an incredibly awful article, and this was the link that The Drudge Report posted. TDR simply went with the headline, and never critically read the artile. Compare the linked weatherbug article with the incredibly professionally, critically reviewed post below.

Original Post

Link here.

Flu vaccines must really be working this year. I'm looking at you, RFK, Jr.





Corona -- link here:

Again, for RFK, Jr., the vaccines must really be working. As folks know, the NYT is reporting American sewage is teaming with evidence of Covid virus in the American population ... and yet ... the clinical illness data doesn't reflect that. And, the new variant has been around for several months now.

A Bunch Of Wells Coming Off Confidential List Over Four Days -- January 22, 2024

Locator: 46615B.

Pending: google ratings nielsen viewers kc chiefs vs buffalo bills yesterday. See this post. Number to beat: 23 million.

Dallas Cowboys: dissension over Dak among family, teammates on twitter. Add this to my discussion of the Cowboys at this blog in which I re-iterated my question marks about Dak:

  • Dak getting older; injury-prone? 
  • Aaron Rogers 
  • younger teams; time to re-build?
  • age of the starting QBs for the 32 NFL teams: throw out the outliers (32+) and the average age appears to be about 24 years old. Dak? 30 years old. Not getting any younger; four NFL starting QBs 30+ (?).

Market

  • did anyone see this coming today: Apple up nicely;
  • WTI opened up at the opening -- seldom seen on a Monday

Personal investing:

  • sold all my KMI shares
  • bought DE with the proceeds

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $74.73.

Tuesday, January 23, 2024: 43 for the month; 43 for the quarter, 43 for the year
None.

Monday, January 22, 2024: 43 for the month; 43 for the quarter, 43 for the year
35369, conf, Enerplus, Quoll 152-94-23CH
30916, conf, BR, Saddle Butte 14-9 MBH-ULW,

Sunday, January 21, 2024: 41 for the month; 41 for the quarter, 41 for the year
39280, conf, Liberty Resources, CA C 158-93-21-23-2MBHX,
39279, conf, Liberty Resources, CA C 158-93-21-23-1MBHX,
39278, conf, Liberty Resources, NV C 158-93-16-14-20MBHX,
39277, conf, Liberty Resources, NV C 158-93-16-14-5MBHX,
39051, conf, Oasis, Bergem 5199 43-33 4B,
30915, conf, BR, Saddle Butte 14-9 TFH,

Saturday, January 20, 2024: 35 for the month; 35 for the quarter, 35 for the year
39946, conf,  Resonance Exploration, Resonance Lodoen 12-36H INJ,
30914, conf, BR, Curtis 14-9 MBH,

RBN Energy: new pipelines and power plants spur ever-higher natural gas exports to Mexico.

With all the talk about U.S. LNG exports and plans for more LNG export capacity, it can be easy to forget that more than 6 Bcf/d of U.S. natural gas — mostly from the Permian and the Eagle Ford — is being piped to Mexico. That’s more than 3X the volumes that were being piped south of the border 10 years ago, a tripling made possible by the buildout of new pipelines from the Agua Dulce and Waha hubs to the Rio Grande and, from there, new pipes within Mexico. And where is all that gas headed? Mostly to new gas-fired power plants and industrial facilities — a handful of new LNG export terminals being planned on that side of the border will only add to the demand. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss the ever-increasing flows of gas to Mexico and the tens of billions of dollars of new infrastructure making it all possible.