Rattlesnake Point -- Lots Of Activity -- December 19, 2023

Locator: 46354B. 

Map:

Sited in section 9-146-96:

• 16927, conf, CLR, Veigel 1-9H, Rattlesnake Point, t8/08; cum 240K 10/23;
  
• 40135, conf, CLR, Veigel 2-9H, Rattlesnake Point,
• 40136, conf, CLR, Veigel 3-9H1, Rattlesnake Point,
• 40137, conf, CLR, Veigel 4-9H, Rattlesnake Point,
• 40138, conf, CLR, Veigel 5-9H1, Rattlesnake Point,
• 40139, conf, CLR, Veigel 6-9H, Rattlesnake Point,
• 40140, conf, CLR, Veigel 7-9H1, Rattlesnake Point,
• 40141, conf, CLR, Veigel 8-9H, Rattlesnake Point,
• 40142, conf, CLR, Veigel 9-9H1, Rattlesnake Point,

Sited in section 8-146-96 (does not include several PNC permits):

• 17403, conf, CLR, Lundberg 1-8H, Rattlesnake Point, t4/10; cum 322K 10/23;
  
• 21877, conf, CLR, Lundberg Federal 2-8AH, Rattlesnake Point,
• 40109, conf, CLR, Lundberg Federal 4-8H1, Rattlesnake Point,
• 40110, conf, CLR, Lundberg Federal 7-8H, Rattlesnake Point,
• 40111, conf, CLR, Lundberg Federal 5-8H1, Rattlesnake Point,
• 40112, conf, CLR, Lundberg Federal 6-8H, Rattlesnake Point,
• 40113, conf, CLR, Lundberg Federal 7-8H, Rattlesnake Point,
• 40114, conf, CLR, Lundberg Federal 8-8HSL1, Rattlesnake Point,

Sited in section 7-146-96 (does not include several PNC permits):

• 17560, IA/376, CLR, Cuskelly 1-7H, Rattlesnake Point, t4/10; cum 313K 8/23;
• 22203, IA/1,430, CLR, Cuskelly 2-7H, Rattlesnake Point, t3/14; cum 273K 8/23
  
• 29710, 1,985, CLR, Thorvald 3-6H, Rattlesnake Point, t9/18; cum 315K10/23
• 29711, 1,625, CLR, Cuskelly 4-7H1, Rattlesnake Point, t6/18; cum 352K 10/23
• 29712, 2,069, CLR, Cuskelly 3-7H, Rattlesnake Point, t6/18; cum 370K 10/23
• 29713, 1,862, CLR, Thorvald 4-6H1, Rattlesnake Point, t918; cum 416K 10/23
• 37571, conf, CLR, Cuskelly 6-7H, Rattlesnake Point,
• 39782, conf, CLR, Thorvald 6-6H, Rattlesnake Point,
• 39783, conf, CLR, Thorvald 7-6H1, Rattlesnake Point,
• 39784, conf, CLR, Cuskelly 8-6HSL, Rattlesnake Point,
• 39785, conf, CLR, Cuskelly 10-7H, Rattlesnake Point,
• 39786, conf, CLR, Cuskelly 11-7H1, Rattlesnake Point,
• 40278, conf, CLR, Thorvald 5-7H, Rattlesnake Point,
• 40279, conf, CLR, Thorvald 5-6H, Rattlesnake Point,

A National -- Texas -- North Dakota Connection -- A Sort Of 21st Century Cattle Swindling Tale -- December 19, 2023

Locator: 46353B.

A reader suggested I take a look at these two stories:

• https://www.star-telegram.com/news/local/article283097103.html; and,
• https://www.thedickinsonpress.com/news/unregistered-aecurities-agent-under-scrutiny-in-killdeer.

I'll tackle them tomorrow. Tonight, family commitments continue. 

The reader provided a comment at an earlier post with the above links.

One assumes the story begins with Bakken oil money but I wouldn't know for sure.

MRO's Nanette Strommen Pad In Killdeer Field

Locator: 46352B.

See this post for the daily activity report when first noted.

The permits/wells on that 9-well pad, sited west to east, with four horizontals appearing to run north, and four horizontals running south; it appears a horizontal is yet to be drilled for #40231, but I could be wrong:

• 17509, runs south (definite), conf, MRO, Nanette Strommen 41-13H, Killdeer,
• 2023: being re-entered to run sidtrack #2
  
• 40288, runs south (?), conf, MRO, Bowers 31-13H, Killdeer,
  
• 40290, runs south (?), conf, MRO, Grayson 441-13TFH, Killdeer,
• 40289, runs south (?), conf, MRO, Maadsen 41-13H, Killdeer,
• 40287, runs north (?); rig on site, conf, MRO, Serum 34-12H, Killdeer,
• 40231, north (?), conf, MRO, Lillebridge 44-12H, Killdeer,
• 40286, runs north (?), conf, MRO, Noreen 44-12TFH, Killdeer,
• 40285, runs north (?), conf, MRO, Muggli 44-12H, Killdeer,
• 40284, runs north (?), conf, MRO, Kellogg 14-7TFH, Killdeer,

Maps:

MRO Strommen wells in Killdeer field are tracked here (not sure if all Strommen wells are accounted for).

Only Stellantis Remains Uncommitted -- December 19, 2023

Locator: 46351EVS.

Link here. Or link directly to The Verge.

Volkswagen, Porsche, Audi: the last major holdouts will use Tesla's EV charging plug.

Volkswagen Group, which also owns Audi, Porsche, and Scout Motors, is finally doing what nearly every other automaker has already done: announce its intention to adopt Tesla’s electric vehicle charging standard.

VW said it is “exploring adapter solutions” so that its current EV owners can access Tesla’s Supercharger network and expects to have something to roll out by 2025. That same year, you’ll start to see new VW electric vehicles rolling off the assembly line with Tesla’s charging port natively installed. All told, VW says the deal will give its customers access to 15,000 Supercharger locations in North America.

Of course, VW is incredibly late to this parade. Things started rolling in November 2022, when Tesla announced that it was renaming its charging technology to the North American Charging Standard (NACS) and would be opening it up to other automakers. Ford came first, then GM, and then, well, everyone else.

Volkswagen Group, one of the world’s largest automakers, with brands like Audi, Bentley, Bugatti, Porsche, and Lamborghini under its umbrella, stayed mum throughout. All we got was some reporting that the company was “in talks” with Tesla. That story followed the news that Electrify America, VW’s EV charging subsidiary, would begin adding Tesla charging plugs itself. The rest of Germany’s auto industry soon followed, including BMW, Mini, and Mercedes-Benz.

Much more at the link. 

Disruptive:

• EVs: link here. Scorecard. 
• cash burn
  
• graphite
• not for me. "Energy transition is dead" is followed here.
  
• EVs charging.  

June 12, 2023: one step closer to the "holy grail." Ford and GM partner wtih Tesla for access to Tesla's superchargers. If Stellantis follows suit, game over. 

Crashed and burned: Blink Charging, EVgo, and ChargePoint;

• Motley Fool notes Tesla partnership with F, GM; says Stellantis could be next;
• closer and closer to the "holy grail": a universal supercharger.
• see this post.

My Favorite Chart -- US MMF Monitor Posted -- December 19, 2023

Locator: 46350MMF.

More than $6 trillion "on the sidelines." Some talking heads on CNBC and some tweeters opine that a lot of that money could flow back into the equity market in 2024 if the Fed cuts rates. Not gonna happen. Most of that money was moved from checking and savings accounts at banks. Huge problem for regional banks. Some of that MMF money will flow back into the equity market but most of it will stay in MMFs. Compared to MMFs, equities are riskier and even at 2%, MMF compare favorably with equities in many cases.

My favorite chart, link here.

From Morningstar:

Strong November Flows Don’t Change the Larger Trends for 2023: the vast majority of inflows accrued to just two category groups.

U.S. mutual funds and exchange-traded funds collected $33 billion in November 2023, just their fifth month of inflows in 2023. The vast majority of inflows accrued to just two category groups: U.S. equity and taxable bond. Five of the 10 groups suffered outflows in November.

Status Quo Largely Persists for U.S. Equity Funds:

Nearly $22 billion entered U.S. equity funds in November, their largest inflow since they gathered $35 billion in May 2022. As usual, passive large-blend funds did the heavy lifting. They took in about $29 billion in November and have collected a whopping $140 billion for the year to date. Large-growth funds collected $1.6 billion in November, their first monthly inflow since June 2022. [You don't often hear analysts using the word "whopping."]

High-Yield and Corporate-Bond Funds Turn a Corner:

The taxable-bond cohort collected $21 billion in November behind breakout flows into some of its riskier pockets. High-yield bond funds absorbed nearly $13 billion in their best month since May 2020, and corporate-bond funds reeled in nearly $5 billion. After favoring safer bond funds for most of 2023, investors in November pivoted into categories that court more credit risk.

Two New Permits; Two DUCs Reported As Completed -- December 19, 2023

Locator: 46349B.

WTI: $73.44.

Active rigs: 35.

Two new permits, #40402 - #40403, inclusive:

• Operators: Cornerstone Natural Resources, Phoenix Operating
• Fields: Northeast Foothills (Burke); Burg (Divide)
• Comments:
• Cornerstone has a permit for a KMC well, SWSW 21-161-91; 
• to be sited 645 FSL and 210 FWL
• Phoenix has a permit for a Nate well, NENW 27-160-99, 
• to be sited 588 NFL and 1551 FWL;

Two producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 39827, 2,374, MRO, Cournoyer 11-17H,
• 34633, 3,091, MRO, Satrum 11-17TFH, 

These completed DUCs are about a mile east of a 9-well MRO pad with many of the new permits at this post, October 23, 2023.

I normally wouldn't pay a lot of attention but it's a huge pad, a 9-well pad; and,
a very old MRO well on that pad drilled and completed in 2009, has a rig on that specific site.

The file report says that this well, on that pad, was approved as a re-entry well for MRO to drill side-track #2:

• 17509, 450 FNL 1200 FEL, 2,162, MRO, Nanette Strommen 41-13H, Killdeer, t2/09; cum 223K 8/23;

The other permits/wells on that 9-well pad, sited west to east, with four horizontals appearing to run north, and four horizontals running south; it appears a horizontal is yet to be drilled for #40231, but I could be wrong:

• 17509, see above, runs south (definite);
  
• 40288, runs south (?), conf, MRO, Bowers 31-13H, Killdeer,
  
• 40290, runs south (?), conf, MRO, Grayson 441-13TFH, Killdeer,
• 40289, runs south (?), conf, MRO, Maadsen 41-13H, Killdeer,
• 40287, runs north (?); rig on site, conf, MRO, Serum 34-12H, Killdeer,
• 40231, north (?), conf, MRO, Lillebridge 44-12H, Killdeer,
• 40286, runs north (?), conf, MRO, Noreen 44-12TFH, Killdeer,
• 40285, runs north (?), conf, MRO, Muggli 44-12H, Killdeer,
• 40284, runs north (?), conf, MRO, Kellogg 14-7TFH, Killdeer,

Maps:

MRO Strommen wells in Killdeer field are tracked here (not sure if all Strommen wells are accounted for).

Fisker Update -- December 19, 2023

Locator: 46348EVS.

I got an e-mail "alert" about Fisker but the story is behind a paywall; apparently the "alert" has to do with customers' complaints. I have no idea if this is anything new. Since the "alert" is behind a paywall, I assume it's just a tease to get folks to subscribe. Whatever. Let's look at the 3-month, 6-month, and 1-year charts and compare Fisker with the darling of Wall Street and the one that Jim Cramer likes, Rivian:

Rivian may be a great trading stock. When it comes to EVs, it looks like Cramer goes with "mojo" and the "auto de jour."

Disruptive:

• EVs: link here. Scorecard. 
• cash burn
  
• graphite
• not for me. "Energy transition is dead" is followed here.
  
• EVs charging. 

Epic Short Squeeze Remains In Play -- December 19, 2023

Locator: 46347INV.

Later: at the close but a lot of those having a great day earlier, turned, many turning negative. Buying opportunity?

Original Post

FOMO, YOLO, MOJO, and an epic short squeeze:

*******************************
Online Shopping

All roads lead to Nvidia (nvidia has become a metonym, for me):

• terabytes of shopping
• terabytes of AI to data mine that shopping
• terabytes of cybersecurity

Link here.

I saw this Steve Liesman report live -- absolutely amazing.

Look at the numbers! Amazing. 

Seventy-five percent of Americans: online shopping as their top one or two destinations. 

After a two-year slump below its pandemic high, online shopping made a comeback this holiday season. The CNBC All-America Economic Survey finds 57% of Americans naming online shopping as their top one or two destinations for Christmas gifts. In 2006, online shopping accounted for just 18% of responses. It hit an all-time high in 2020, at the height of the pandemic, when 55% responded it was the top destination. It scaled back to 51% last year, holding on to some but not all of its pandemic gains. But this year, hit yet another all-time high.

The reason for the surge is unclear but a look at those spending more online this year suggests it could center around a search for bargains to combat inflation. Among those groups spending more online are women 50 and older who as a group reported more frugal holiday spending plans than average and are more concerned about inflation and the overall condition of the economy. Still, the group shops less online than younger women aged 18-49. 

Also spending more online this year than last are those with incomes below $30,000 and those who plan to spend only $200 on gifts, far below the $1,300 average.

Pet peeve: in the middle of a "data-driven story," the writer throws in an opinion: 

The reason for the surge is unclear but a look at those spending more online this year suggests it could center around a search for bargains to combat inflation. 

What drives that opinion?

Why are folks shopping on line? Four reasons:

• convenience;
• convenience;
• convenience:
• convenience.

Prices / inflation has nothing to do with the records being set.

Two questions not asked:

• of the average $1,300 spent this year on "Christmas," what amount / what percent is spent on gifts for folks who don't live in same city as you do?
• when did you last visit the USPS to mail a package?

It does not matter whether one is a member or not, as long as one spends at least a nominal amount (generally around $35 per visit) one gets "free" shipping."

Seventy-five percent of folks shop on line. Seventy-four percent of that spending is done at Amazon. No one even comes close.

And again, incomplete data: "Today, that percentage has risen to a commanding 74%, unchanged from last year but below its 2019 high."

So, what was the "high" / the number in 2019?

By the way, Amazon is emphasizing BNPL or at least offering incentives to use BNPL plans.

Dashboards Have Posted For December, 2023

Locator: 46346B.

EIA dashboards:

• Permian: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/pdf/permian.pdf.
• Eagle Ford: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/pdf/eagleford.pdf,
• Bakken: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/pdf/bakken.pdf.

The Bakken:

The Permian:

The Eagle Ford, December, 2023:

Bud Update, Good News For Tylenol And Another Seven Dividend-Paying Stocks -- December 19, 2023

Locator: 46345INV.

Tylenol: wow, this is huge. Not on my bingo card. Smart judge. Link here.

BUD: For the archives only. I lost interest in this story a long time ago.

• wow, the Kid Rock boycott -- talk about an over-hyped story;
• best thing that ever happened to Budweiser: something new on which to blame their problems.
• the real problem(s):
• marijuana legalized in 2015 in progressive states
• craft beer craze
  
• the Covid-19 lockdown (bars closed down)
• emphasis on weight loss with Ozempic
  

Link here.

Christmas is the season for forgiveness, and so it seems for Kid Rock and Bud Light, as the musician said his boycott of the beer is over. Yet parent company AB InBev has already recouped nearly all its losses from its botched Dylan Mulvaney partnership. 

Last week, Kid Rock spoke with Tucker Carlson, saying that while Anheuser-Busch InBev deserved the “black eye” it got for its marketing campaign with transgender influencer Mulvaney, he felt there was no need to keep avoiding the brand. While noting that he hoped other companies took note of consumers’ displeasure, he explained that after many months of lower sales, “I don’t think the punishment that they’ve been getting at this point fits the crime.”

 ***************************************
Laser-Focused On Dividends

Link here.

Bad News For Blue Hydrogen -- IEEFA -- December 19, 2023

Locator: 46344H2.

I have no idea what biases IEEFA may have with regard to energy, but the headline certainly caught my attention, and it certainly seems to raise some legitimate concerns.  

There are a number of posts regarding "blue hydrogen" on the blog. Link here to scroll through the "blue hydrogen" blogs.

The takeaways from the latest IEEFA analysis:

• the small and shrinking market potential for hydrogen fuel cell vehicles
• the U.S. Department of Energy is negotiating with several selected companies to establish regional hydrogen hubs that derive hydrogen from methane. They will be costly, and DOE must ask hard questions before it commits the funding
• DOE is under pressure to put the cart before the horse—to build hydrogen projects based on unproven technologies and undemonstrated markets.
• by the time DOE’s selected applications are processed and the surviving projects are built, EV market trends will have expanded the already strong role of BEVs substantially, weighing against most vehicular uses of hydrogen.
• if DOE fails to exercise discretion in reviewing and finalizing the hydrogen project proposals the result is likely to be a substantial waste of taxpayer dollars for an outsized hydrogen-based economy that will never arrive.
• the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is negotiating with several companies to build costly hydrogen hubs that derive hydrogen from natural gas (methane), but the agency must ask hard questions before committing any more public funds for the “blue hydrogen” projects, according to the latest Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) report.
• public dollars should not be sunk into projects that are likely to fail to achieve financial viability due to a weak market, IEEFA warns, and the market scenario for hydrogen in vehicular transportation is particularly troubling. 
• the scale of the hydrogen push does not make sense from an economic perspective. Despite the influx of federal funding, the long-term viability of the proposed hydrogen hubs (H2Hubs) will likely still be ruled by actual market forces.
• in a 2022 report, IEEFA found hydrogen had an extremely limited future in the market, including vehicular transportation, warning that the H2Hubs may be obsolete before they launch. With the rapid advances in battery electric technology and sustained growth in its market share, the market scenario for hydrogen in vehicular transportation is even more dubious today.
• much, much, more but you get the gist.

And, of course, making matters so much worse:

• the DOE is headed by a politician and not a scientist, or an expert on the matter
• the secretary is perhaps the least bright of any of three cabinet secretaries
• the secretary is perhaps the most ideological of all the cabinet secretaries

*****************************
From Earlier

Locator: 45761H2HUBS.

Link here. Charles Kennedy.

• Mid-Atlantic H2: blue
• Appalachian H2: deep blue
• California H2: deep blue
• Gulf Coast (Houston) H2: blue
• Heartland H2: blue
• Midwest H2: blue
• Pacific Northwest H2: deep blue

Eight Wells Coming Off Confidential List These Next Two Days -- Tuesday, December 19, 2023

Locator: 46343B.

WTI: $73.72.

Wednesday, December 20, 2023: 29 for the month; 178 for the quarter, 748 for the year
39698, conf, WPX, North John Elk 28-27HB,
39552, conf, Five States Operating, RH 1-8H,
39230, conf, Grayson Mill, Reidle 6-3F 2H,
39027, conf, Hess, GO-Golden-Valley-LW-157-96-2832H-1,
38257, conf, Hess, EN-State B-155-93-0916H-10,

Tuesday, December 19, 2023: 24 for the month; 173 for the quarter, 743 for the year
39697, conf, WPX, North John Elk 28-27HW,
38254, conf, Hess, EN-State B-155-93-0916H-7,
38114, conf, Formentera Operations, LFM1 22-34 161-93 BTF,

RBN Energy: Capline's volumes making strides two years after reversal, but headwinds remain.

We’ve reached the two-year anniversary of the reversal of the joint-venture Capline crude oil pipeline. With its current north-to-south flow, it adds to the few conduits that can move oil from the Midwest to the Gulf Coast, specifically the St. James, LA, oil hub. Flows have been on a steady climb since southbound service began in December 2021, but volumes appear to be short of its available capacity, and there are looming headwinds.

In today’s RBN blog, we examine whether Capline’s flows could be affected by the impending startup of the Canadian government-owned Trans Mountain Expansion Project (TMX). Could rising Alberta production be its golden ticket?  

Earlier This Morning -- Tuuesday, December 19, 2023

 Locator: 46342INV.