Lucid's Tri-Motor: Quarter Mile In Less Than Ten Seconds -- September 24, 2020

Link here.

Eighteen Minutes Ago? Enbridge, State Come To Agreement On Line 5 -- September 24, 2020

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.  

More And More Daylight -- September 24, 2020

Updates

September 25, 2020: Natural gas consumption in US plummets: link here to EIA.  

Original Post

Link here. 

No New Permits; Two DUCs Reported As Completed: Eleven Permits Renewed -- September 24, 2020

Breaking news: so much for all that "player safety." PAC-12 to return with 7-game season. All college conferences now playing football. Pretty amazing. Money talks. Analysts already worried about how to figure out who plays what post-season bowl game. Oh, give me a break. Except for maybe four bowl games, none of them matter, anyway. No asterisk at the end of the season. 

Breaking news: Nikola's ex-CEO vanishes. Mysteriously.

Taking a break: after I post the daily activity report in about fifteen minutes, I'm going to go off the net for awhile. So much is happening right now with regard to some good notes coming out of the Bakken, I need to take a break.

Oasis: nothing new on Oasis. From a week ago --

Oasis Petroleum Inc. skipped payments due September 15, 2020, on some of its debt, becoming the latest oil and gas producer to flirt with bankruptcy amid a prolonged price slump.

The company owed interest on $244.8 million of convertible notes and $834.5 million of unsecured notes maturing in 2022. Oasis Petroleum has 30 days to make good on the missed payments before a formal default. [My calendar suggests that would be about October 15, 2020.]

Led by Chief Executive Officer Thomas B. Nusz, Oasis has failed to post an annual net profit since 2017. The company previously warned in a quarterly filing that it may need Chapter 11 court protection if it can’t refinance its debt. Oasis is in danger of breaching a covenant on its credit facility, and has been working with advisers to explore alternatives.

**********************************
The Daily Activity Report

Active rigs:

$40.31	9/24/2020	09/24/2019	09/24/2018	09/24/2017	09/24/2016
Active Rigs	11	57	64	57	33

No new permits.

Two producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 36725, drl/A, CLR, Bailey 13-13HSL1, Pershing,
• 31967, SI/A, Petro-Hunt, Klevmoen Trust 153-95-17D-7-3H, Charlson, no production data,

Eleven permits renewed:

• Bruin (7): seven FB Leviathan permits, all in section 27-151-94; McKenzie County;
• CLR (4): four LCU Reckitt Federal permits, all in section 22-153-99; Williams County;

Reason #1 Why I Love To Blog -- September 24, 2020

Updates

September 26, 2020: updated at this post. This page won't be updated.

Original Post

Okay, possums, this is a teaser, but over the next couple of days when I get caught up I will post a very interesting comment from a reader regarding theses two wells:

• 34356, link here;
• 34358, link here;

Stay tuned!

NDIC Hearing Dockets For October, 2020, Posted

Link here. 

The NDIC hearing dockets are tracked here.

The usual disclaimer applies. As usual this is done very quickly and using shorthand for my benefit. There will be factual and typographical errors on this page. Do not quote me on any of this. It's for my personal use to help me better understand the Bakken. Do not read it. If you do happen to read it, do not make any investment, financial, job, relationship, or travel plans based on anything you read here or think you may have read here. If this stuff is important to you, and I doubt that it is, but if it is, go to the source.

Highlights in bold.

Wednesday, October 21, 2020
Three Pages

 

The cases:

• 28562: Hess, Wheelock-Bakken, amend; establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit; sections 29/30/31/32-156-98; one well; Williams County;
  
• 28563: Hess, Beaver Lodge-Bakken, amend; terminate an overlapping 3840-acre unit, establish an overlapping 27/28/33/34-156-95; one well; Williams County;
  
• 28564: Hess, pooling;
  
• 28565: Hess, pooling
  
• 28566: Hess, 13 wells; see this post; Blue Buttes-Bakken, amend; 13 wells on a 1280-acre unit; 8/17-150-95; McKenzie County;
  
• 28567: Hess, commingling;
  
• 28568: Petro-Hunt, pooling;
  
• 28569: BR, 15 wells; see this post; Westberg-Bakken; 15 wells on a 1280-acre unit, 6/7-152-96, McKenzie County
  
• 28570: BR, 30 wells; see this post; Clear Creek-Bakken; 30 wells on a 2560-acre unit; sections 25/36-152-06 & sections 1/12-151-96; McKenzie County;
  
• 28571, BR, 15 wells; see this post; Hawkeye-Bakken; 15 wells on a 1280-acre units, sections 14/23-152-95; McKenzieCounty
  

Thursday, October 22, 2020
Four Pages

 

The cases:

• 28572: NDIC, Samson Oil & Gas, file #15646, Mays 1-20H, 28-150-102, McKenzie County;combined production/injection, Foreman Butte-Madison pool
• 28573: CLR, relief for #37508, Kennedy 14-31H2; McKenzie County;
  
• 28574: Slawson; see this post;
  
•  i) 4 wells:
• ii) 2 wells:  
•  iii) 2 wells;
• iv) 4 wells;
• v) 4 wells:
• vi) 1 well;
• vii) 1 well;
• viii) decrease 3 wells to one well; four wells to one;
• ix) terminate several spacing units;28575: Cobra, unitize Flat Top Butte-Madison Unit, McKenzie County
• 28575: Cobra Oil & Gas; amend the definition of the unitized formation for the Flat Top Butte-Madison Unit, McKenzie County;
  
• 28576: Medora Grazing Association; conversion of the Cobra Oil & Gas #4684 to a freshwater well; pretty interesting, Square Butte Field, Golden Valley County, ND;
  
• 28577: Medora Grazing Association; conversion of Scout Energy Management LLC #13311, to a freshwater well; Fryburg Field, Billings County;
  
• 28578: Medora Grazing Association; conversion of Scout Energy Management#12476 to a freshwater well; Fryburg Field, Billings County;
  
• 28579: Medora Grazing Association; conversion of White Rock Oil & Gas #15017 to a freshwater well; David Creek Field, Billings County;
  
• 28580: WPX, pooling;
  
• 28581: WPX, 8 wells; see this post; 8 wells on an existing 1280-acre unit; 25/26-150-93; Reunion Bay-Bakken; Dunn and Mountrail counties;
  
• 28582: Ballantyne, commingling;
  

Hurricane Season? September 24, 2020

Is it just me or was all that Weather Channel hype about all the hurricanes / tropical storms last week just that -- hype, to sell commercials? Of all the networks I surf through, the Weather Channel seems to have the most commercials. Reminds me of an old Jerry Lewis movie I first saw when I was about eight years old.

Sideshow: Was He Tested For Covid-19? September 24, 2020

From a reader:

A Massachusetts Construction worker's love of candy cost him his life. 

The 54-year-old, who has not been named, died in a fast-food restaurant while having lunch after consuming a bag and half of black licorice for a few weeks, a study by The New England Journal of Medicine. 

"He had a poor diet, consisting primarily of several packages of candy daily," the study claimed, before noting that three "weeks earlier, he had switched the type of candy he was eating" to black licorice. 

The study also said that licorice's glycyrrhizic acid (usually found in the candy's extract) can cause the "unimpeded presence of cortisol," which in turn "can cause hypertension, hypokalemia, metabolic alkalosis, fatal arrhythmias, and renal failure — the constellation of signs and symptoms seen in this patient." 

The Journal's findings listed the following as the diagnosis of Dr. Elazer R. Edelman, a doctor cited in the study: "Metabolic, renal, vascular, and cardiac toxic effects from apparent mineralocorticoid excess due to licorice consumption." 

The man, who suffered experienced "full-body shaking and loss of consciousness" before his death, also smoked a pack of cigarettes a day for 36 years and had a medical history that "included previous heroin use disorder and untreated hepatitis C virus infection."

And they're blaming licorice for his death? LOL.  

Shirley, the NEJM is jesting.

And quit calling me Shirley.

Australian Government Imploring Their Folks To Drive To Work To Protect The Grid -- September 24, 2020

Too tired to do much editing so will simply move through this quickly.

A couple of days ago a reader noted that the Australian government was imploring folks to drive themselves back to work. The reason? To protect the grid. I can't make this stuff up. Link here.

My reply to the reader who sent that:

This is quite coincidental. I mentioned the very same thing to my son-in-law who works out of New York City and Atlanta, GA. I bet al lot of those somewhat empty buildings still have the a/c running because some folks are still working at the office and the computers / servers need to be kept cool.

But then, on top of that 75% or more are working at home .... causing the problem noted in Australia.

The reader replied overnight:

We both know it has been crazy the last twenty years for millions of people to go to their skyscraper office and then spend most of their time on the phone/computer, and a few hours every month in meetings....mostly with fellow staff which could be done "virtually."

some meetings with outside clients/consultants/customers/regulators/lawyers could be done at "their" office. 

Gets complicated when trying to figure out who goes and who stays and where to do the few face-to-face meetings but surely "downtown" could be cut in half....and will be. 

$brillion bankruptcies here we come! The internet changed the world dramatically.

I would add one more thing: "everything" will change. Think about the unused, Covid-19 incubating subway system in NYC. And then there's the whole education thing.  If Corky can do it, everyone can do it.

***************************
All Over The PGA US Open Last Week 

And this is an MSNBC-associated network which has its own Microsoft Teams application. Apparenlty not so much.

Reason #1 Why I Love To Blog -- Feedback From Readers -- September 24, 2020

This made my day. From a reader:

A note about the length of time for having a vacancy on the court: from 1972 through 1994, the only vacancy that lasted more than three months was when Bork and the first Ginsburg got knocked out and Kennedy was Reagan’s third choice for the vacancy in 1987. 

I don’t remember how long it was until Roberts and Alito filled their vacancies, but it looks like Kagan and Sotomayor came in after roughly three-month vacancies. 

The point is that for this vacancy to remain until probably late February at the earliest, after the hearings that’d follow a nomination after the inauguration--that would be unusual. 

Also interesting: Lincoln got four men on the court, during a civil war, so they were confirmed without the participation of what, a third of the states? 

On a whole different topic, I see Dallas and Tampa are playing the Stanley Cup Finals this week, in Edmonton. It’s a city that’s about as far as from those two cities as exists in the NHL.

I haven't blogged much about the NHL -- I guess with all the politics, lost interest in sports. Having said that, not looking good for Dallas at the moment, although I have no (emotional) skin in the game. This surprised me, though, about the Lightning:

The Lightning have qualified for the Stanley Cup playoffs eleven times in twenty-seven completed seasons and won the 2004 Stanley Cup. The Tampa Bay Lightning have won over 900 regular season games, the 25th-highest victory total among NHL teams.

Back to the US Supreme Court. "Everybody" says Trump only has til November. In fact, win or lose, he and the US Senate have until early January, 2021. I know one very highly regarded justice said a president was elected for four years, not three.

Does Anybody Really Care Any More? Except For Gasoline Demand, Not Much Changed Week-Over-Week -- September 24, 2020

Gasoline demand: oh-oh -- link here: if I had only one metric to track the health of the US economy, and I can argue that gasoline demand is a leading indicator.

Jobless report: holds steady at 900K. Link here. 

Weekly EIA petroleum report, link here.

• US crude oil in storage decreased by 1.6 million bbls -- inconsequential.
  
• US crude oil in storage: 494.4 million bbls
  
• US crude oil in storage remains about 13% above the already-fat five-year average
• US refineries are operating at 74.8% capacity, down another percent from last week; wow; that may start to explain the reason the price of gasoline is jumping;
  
• US crude oil imports average 5.2 million bopd, up a bit from last week; imports  now averaging about 24.2% less than same four-week period last year (2019) (it was 20% last week)
  
• distillate production decreased last week; over the past four weeks, down by 8.2% from same period last year
  
• jet fuel supplied was down 45.8% compared with same four-week period last year; unchanged from last report
  

Re-Balancing:

Week	Date of Report=	Change	Million Bbls Storage	Over/under 5-year average
Week 0	November 21, 2018	4.9	446.9
Week 1	November 28, 2018	3.6	450.5
Week 2	December 6, 2018	-7.3	443.2
Week 3	December 12, 2018	-1.2	442.0
Week 4	December 19, 2018	-0.5	441.5
Week 5	December 28, 2018	0.0	441.4
Week 84	July 15, 2020	-7.5	531.7	17%
Week 85	July 22, 2020	4.9	536.6	19%
Week 86	July 29, 2020	-10.6	526.0	17%
Week 87	August 5, 2020	-7.4	518.6	16%
Week 88	August 12, 2020	-4.5	514.1
Week 89	August 19, 2020	-1.6	512.5
Week 90	August 26, 2020	-4.7	507.8	15%
Week 91	September 2, 2020	-9.4	498.4	14%
Week 92	September 10, 2020	2.0	500.5	14%
Week 93	September 16, 2020	-4.4	496.0	14%
Week 94	September 23, 2020	-1.6	494.4	13%

Jet fuel:

Jet Fuel Delivered, Change, Four-Week/Four-Week
Week	Date of Report	Change
Week 0	3/7/2020	-12.80%
Week 1	3/14/2020	-12.60%
Week 2	3/21/2020	-8.90%
Week 3	3/28/2020	-16.40%
Week 4	4/4/2020	-0.22%
Week 18	July 15, 2020	-51.90%
Week 19	July 22, 2020	-47.70%
Week 20	July 29, 2020	-42.10%
Week 21	August 5, 2020	-40.90%
Week 22	August 12, 2020	-45.80%
Week 23	August 19, 2020	-47.60%
Week 24	August 26, 2020	-45.70%
Week 25	September 2, 2020	-47.10%
Week 26	September 10, 2020	-45.10%
Week 27	September 16, 2020	-45.60%
Week 28	September 23, 2020	-45.80%

Distillates:

Distillate Fuel Inventories
Week	Date of Report	Change in Millions	Relative to 5-Yr Avg
Week 1	August 26, 2020	1.40	24.0%
Week 2	September 2, 2020	-1.70	23.0%
Week 3	September 10, 2020	-1.70	20.0%
Week 4	September 16, 2020	3.50	22.0%
Week 5	September 23, 2020	-3.40	21.0%

Crude oil imports:

Crude Oil Imports
Week (week-over-week)	Date of Report	Raw Data, millions of bbls	Change (millions of bbls)	Four-week period comparison
Week 0	March 11, 2029	6.4	0.174
Week 1	March 18, 2020	6.5	0.127
Week 2	March 25, 2020	6.1	-0.422
Week 3	April 1, 2020	6.0	-0.070
Week 4	April 8, 2020	5.9	-0.173
Week 5	April 15, 2020	5.7	-0.194
Week 6	April 22, 2020	5.6	-0.700
Week 7	April 29, 2020	5.3	0.365	-19.700%
Week 8	May 6, 2020	5.7	0.410
Week 9	May 13, 2020	5.4	-0.321	-26.100%
Week 10	May 20, 2020	5.2	-0.194
Week 11	May 28, 2020	7.2	2.000	-16.400%
Week 12	June 3, 2020	6.2	-1.000	-18.300%
Week 13	June 10, 2020	6.4	0.000	-13.300%
Week 19	July 22, 2020	5.9	0.373	-13.500%
Week 20	July 29, 2020	5.1	-0.800	-13.600%
Week 21	August 5, 2020	6.0	0.900	-18.100%
Week 22	August 12, 2020	5.6	-0.389	-20.400%
Week 23	August 19, 2020	5.7	0.109	-21.700%
Week 24	August 26, 2020	5.9	0.185	-16.900%
Week 25	September 2, 2020	4.9	-1.000	-20.200%
Week 26	September 10, 2020	5.4	0.500	-17.900%
Week 27	September 16, 2020	5.0	-0.416	-20.100%
Week 28	September 23, 2020	5.2	0.160	-24.200%