A Lost Year -- July 25, 2020

Those most adversely affected by Covid-19:

• children, ages 4 to 18;
• elderly and those with "underlying conditions" ("pre-existing conditions"?)
• mom-and-pop restaurants;
• airlines;
• services industries associated with travel;

Least affected:

• landscape services in Texas.

For investors, it's one year.

But for investors, this is nothing compared to the two lost decades under Bush II and Barack Obama. In fact, the NASDAQ hit an all-time high this past week.

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Fake Endorsements

This has been going on for quite some time but I've not seen it mentioned before.

Television advertisers using "actors" that have voices that sound like very famous folks: examples, "actors" that sound like Barack Obama and Gwen Ifill. This is just the opposite of "real" celebrities doing voice-overs.

Without question, the best such example is not only a voice-over, but a very, very clever video. Geico's "Wedding Getaway" is a parody of the most famous royal couple no longer a royal couple: Prince Harry and Meghan, Duchess of Sussex.



The actor portraying Prince Harry even has the beard. This was a very, very clever commercial. 

Making America Great -- Wages Growing -- Fastest Rate In More Than A Decade -- December 28, 2019

From Axios, original story here.

Wages for nonsupervisory employees — who make up 82% of the workforce — are rising at the fastest rate in more than a decade. 

The big picture: Workers at the bottom of the pay scale have been feeling positive effects on their wages at the end of 2019 — especially when compared to those at the top.

Pay rates the bottom 25% of wage earners rose 4.5% in November from a year earlier, while wages for the top 25% of earners rose only 2.9%, per data from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

The bank also found that the rate of pay rises for low-skilled workers matched those for high-skilled workers last month for the first time since 2010.

Ah, yes, since 2010 -- the "lost decade."

Flashback: Hillary promised to put folks out of work; not raise wages.

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The History Page

I have just re-read the first four chapters of The Battle For New York, Barnet Schecter, c. 2002. I completed my first reading of the entire book some time ago. I will put Schecter down for awhile now that I've got the setting sorted out (again), as well as the geography -- land and water -- of the New York area. My notes on that book are here.

I don't recall ever having read a biography of George Washington, but the biography of Washington in Schecter's book is incredibly fascinating.

Then, of all things, while reading The Anarchy, the story of the East India Company, by William Dalrymple, c. 2019, this from page 57:

That opportunity [to "take" India"] manifested itself even as the Carnatic Wars (a series of "wars" waged between French and British trading companies in India during the 1750s] were grinding to an inconclusive end in the mid-1750s.

For it was not just in India that Anglo-French rivalry was smouldering, ready to reignite  at the slightest spark. Instead the trail of gunpowder which ignited the next round of Anglo-French conflict began far away from India, on the frozen borderlands of America and New France -- what we today call Canada --a between the great lakes and the headwaters of the Ohio River.

On 21 June 1752, a party of French Indians led by the French adventurer Charles Langlade, who had a Huron wife and was also influential among the Seneca, Iroquois,  and Micmac, led a war party of 240 warriors down Lake Huron, across lake Erie and into the newly settled farmlands of British Ohio. Tomahawks at the ready, they fell on the British settlement of Pickawillany, achieving complete surprise. Only twenty British settlers managed to muster at the stockade. Of those, one was later scalped and another ceremonially boiled and the most delicious parts of his body eaten.

The violent raid spread a sense of instability and even terror among British traders and settlers as far as New York and Virginia. Within months, regular French troops, supported by indigenous guides, auxiliaries and large numbers of of Indian warriors were rumoured to be moving in large numbers into the headwaters of the Ohio Valley, and on 1 November the Governor of Virginia sent a  21-year-old militia volunteer north to investigate. His name was George Washington. So began the first act in what Americans still call the French and Indian Wars, and which is known in the rest of the world as the Seven Years (sic) War.

This time it would be total war, and properly global, fought on multiple continents and in ruthless advancement of worldwide British and French imperial interests. It would carry European arms and warfare from the Ohio to the Philippines, from Cuba to the coast of Nigeria, and from the Heights of Abraham outside Quebec to the marshy flatlands and mango groves of Plassey.

But the part of the globe it would transform most lastingly was India.

Wow, talk about serendipity. I put the first book down having come to a great spot to do so, and then to pick up a completely unrelated book and it seems to begin exactly where the first left off.

Wow, advice to the granddaughters: never quit reading. LOL.

Keeping America Great; Steel Mills All Along The Gulf Coast -- July 22, 2019

Updates

Later, 7:59 p.m. CT: after posting the original post, a reader noted --

It is virtually impossible to overstate the impact of an abundant, cheap energy supply ... most particularly when referring to industrial (high consuming) end users.

When we, the public, regularly note the benefits of 2 buck/gallon gasoline, these industrial heavyweights are scanning regions with 5 and 6 cent per kilowatthour with which to do their thing.

With Henry Hub pricing looking to stay low for decades, the latest iteration of Combined Cycle Gas Plants springing up all over, the USA will continue to be THE place for business, especially heavy manufacturing.

As a sharp counter point, virtually the ENTIRE Green New Deal would have taken this country in the completely opposite direction.  

Comment: when I first started blogging back in 2007, I called the Bush II era a "lost decade." Many others subsequently said the same thing. I think most of us thought a second "lost decade" would be virtually impossible, but Barack Obama managed to pull it off. Clearly, the US is starting to make up for lost time.

For much of the past decade (yes, it's been that long) I've opined that the major energy hiccup for the US was Obama killing the Keystone XL. I'm not so sure any more. If the Keystone XL had gone in on time, it's very possible the Bakken, the Eagle Ford, and the Permian may have taken another direction. Not ready for prime time, but I am starting to question whether killing the Keystone might have worked out to our advantage. Something to think about. 

Original Post

I find this fascinating. It is simply staggering what is happening from Corpus Christi to Houston to New Orleans. 

Link here. Data points:

• US steelmaker Steel Dynamics (SDI) chose this site over a site in Louisiana
• 30 miles northwest of Corpus Christ
• electric arc furnace: almost $2 billion to build; operations should begin in mid-2021
• 3 million short tons/year of hot-rolled coil (HRC)
• will also have a galvanizing line with a capacity of 550,000 st/year
• will also have a paint line with a coating capacity of 250,000 st/year 
• Sinton, TX:
• SDI's seventh EAF-based steel mill; third flat-rolled facility
• joins Butler, IN, and Columbia, MS -- the latter facilities can produce 6.4 million st/year of HRC

First question: what are all these still mills in the deep south, and not up in Pennsylvania, New York, etc.

By the way, it was George Bush II that really got Texas rolling when he declared Texas open for business some years ago.

Much more at the link, including news of other steel mills being built in the US.

They're Reading The Blog -- "Lost Decade" -- September 26, 2018 -- The Investor Class Vs The Saving Class

Updates

Later, 11:39 p.m. CDT: could someone please provide a graphic of income disparity when the oil barons, the bank barons, and the rail barons owned the US -- let's say, about 1927, or thereabouts? Once I see that graphic, maybe I'll take the current concern about income disparity a bit more seriously. If one can't find that graphic, I would settle for a graphic of current income disparity in ... oh, let's say ... ah ... Venezuela. Cuba. North Korea. Siberia. China. Bangladesh. Syria. Palestine. Paris. NYC. San Francisco. Williston.

Original Post 

We'll never know who first mentioned the phrase "lost decade," but I know I first used it before ever seeing anyone else talk about it. And then the two "lost decades" of course (Bush II and Obama). There are even three "lost decade" tags at the bottom of the blog, a tag I haven't seen elsewhere.

And now we see it again, a reference to the "lost decade":

Back in March, 2018, the German bank then warned that the "liberal world order" is in jeopardy.

Fast forward to today, when Bank of America strategist Barnaby Martin tackles the thorny issue of ascendant populism, which he attributes to the "lost decade" following Lehman's collapse and what he dubs the "era of hubris" - a time when the richest 1% has seen its collective wealth surpass $100 trillion.

Martin begins by reminding us that a decade ago, "the collapse of Lehman Brothers sent shock waves through financial markets" to which the response was an unprecedented amount of central bank support, both in terms of its size and creativity.
And as we have observed on countless occasions, with central banks as a tailwind, financial markets have outperformed real assets over the last decade. Even so, the dichotomy in many cases is staggering:

Simply said, the last decade has seen those who hold financial assets become richer, as markets have lurched higher; meanwhile those without such assets - the vast majority of the middle class - have been increasingly left behind, however, even as wage growth remained stagnant and indebted governments have struggled to provide strong social support. As a result, a great wave of populism emerged as "issues such as wealth and income inequality have started to polarize societies much more."

The next chart shows in staggering fashion just how “rich” the rich are today, especially when compared to some other big numbers and markets. According to BofA estimates the wealth of the top 1% globally has surpassed $100 trillioin now…a number greater than the sum of the big-4 central bank balance sheets, current world GDP and the cost of the ‘07/’08 global financial crisis, for instance.

By the way, I found the article incredibly interesting and I loved the graphics, but I failed to really get a feeling for what the author was trying to say. The writer seemed to have stated the obvious but then failed to come to any conclusion of where this was all headed.

Having said that, the nuanced statement about China near the end, in my mind, was most important. There's a reason China is not putting tariffs on Apple. I'm still waiting to read stories about Chinese bankers jumping out of windows.

The Market, Energy, And Political Page, T+14 -- August 28, 2018

Making America great again: it's ironic that Trump will be impeached in 2019 when the US is doing so incredibly well. On top of everything else, look at the consumer confidence index today. Something tells me the GOP will suffer immensely if they let the charade go through when the economy is doing so well; as Larry Kudlow says, the "US is crushing it"

• highest level since October, 2000 -- two lost decades: Bush II and Obama
• when you look back on Obama: one word -- lazy; what was he doing for eight years? [by the way, Obama himself characterized himself as "lazy" soon after he entered office]
• when you look back on Bush II: intellectually "un-curious"; in street language: "didn't have a clue"
• I digress
• back to today's consumer confidence index
• Americans are happy with an index of 100
• I would be happy with an index of 100 after all we've been through
• what was the estimate? 126.7. LOL. Analysts thought consumer confidence would fall slightly from last month's 127.4. (The "decimal" precision is "false precision" -- something even Sophia at age four years knows, but I digress again)
• the analysts: weren't they paying attention to two things?
• retail sales
• connecting retail sales and decreased gasoline demand
• so, if the estimate was 126.7, what was the actual number? An incredible 133.4
• repeat: 133.4 -- the best in almost two decades
• "lost decade"
• the first time I tagged a post with "lost decade" was back on January 3, 2011; it wasn't until almost five years later that mainstream media was starting to write about the "lost decade" -- which they associated with Bush II; it will be another five years before the mainstream media starts associating the second lost decade with Obama (second lost decade, tag)
• like posts on global warming, talking about the second lost decade gets tedious

Trade wars: some think China has more staying power than the US. Remember this: US retail is starting to put in their orders for Christmas now; by the end of August, maybe September at the latest, US retailers will have put in their buy orders. 

The Market And Energy Page, T+11 -- February 1, 2018 -- Models S+X Sales Way Down; Model 3 Sales Really Disappoint -- Aren't We Supposed To See 5,000 Units/Week Being Delivered?

From Bloomberg: US consumer comfort highest since 2001 on optimism for economy. Didn't President Trump tell us that just the other night? Since 2001? Let's see, finally are the two "lost decades" -- the Bush decade, and the Obama decade -- behind us? We can only hope.

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Let's See If That Optimism Extends To January Car Sales

Numbers will be reported over the next couple of days.

Someone is getting a head start on Tesla over at SeekingAlpha.

• Model S+X estimated to show huge sequential quarterly declines
• Model 3 estimated progress leaves a bit to be desired
• If the numbers are correct, Q1 off to tough start

Since it is the first of the month, we now have third-party automotive sales estimates starting to trickle in. Unfortunately for Tesla, that isn't a good thing this time around, as January deliveries seem to be disappointing. As EV competition gets ready to soar, the situation gets more perilous for the company as we approach next week's quarterly earnings report.

Let me start with the Model 3, which is probably what most really care about at the moment. In its January 2018 plug-in scorecard, InsideEvs estimated 1,875 deliveries for Tesla's newest model. That's up a bit more than 800 units over the December level of 1,060 units, but as the InsideEvs scorecard says, the January number was "not as high as projected or expected" (their statement in the scorecard linked above). While the chart below does show growth rising at a sharp pace month-to-month, the Model 3 remains well behind its original schedule.

EV sales are tracked here.

Oh, my goodness, model S+X way down -- total of the two, down to 1,500 for the month of January. Down slightly year-over-year (January sales) but absolutely slumped month-over-month.

Model 3, self-reported deliveries: 1,875 -- weren't we supposed to be up to 5,000/week by now, or 20,000/month? But Elon Musk is selling a lot of flame throwers. Tesla sold 1,060 Model 3 vehicles in December, 2017, so they almost doubled output. Tesla shares? The religious cult is hardly concerned: down barely a percent.

Perhaps a bigger story: Nissan Leaf sales have plummeted. It looks like GM (Chevrolet Bolt / Volt) has the EV mojo right now.

Nissan, even worse than I thought:

• $30K, stripped down model (but upwards of $40K if one wants the best version)
• 151-mile range -- great for commuters, nothing else
• 8 hours required for full charge

The Market And Energy Page, T+346 -- January 3, 2018; Lost Decades Coming To An End? US Manufacturing Best Year Since 2004 -- 13 Years Of Wandering In The Desert

Updates

Later, 9:19 p.m. CT: Weatherford sells US fracking business to Schlumberger instead of forming joint venture as originally announced.


Later, 1:11 p.m CT: GDP Now estimate jumps to 3.2 percent for 4Q17. 

The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2017 is 3.2 percent on January 3, up from 2.8 percent on December 22. 

The forecast of real consumer spending growth increased from 2.9 percent to 3.3 percent after this morning's Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management, while the forecast of real private fixed-investment growth increased from 7.9 percent to 8.9 percent after the ISM report and this morning's construction spending release from the U.S. Census Bureau. 

The model's estimate of the dynamic factor for December—normalized to have mean 0 and standard deviation 1 and used to forecast the yet-to-be released monthly GDP source data—increased from 0.44 to 1.50 after the ISM report. The forecast of the contribution of net exports to fourth-quarter real GDP growth fell from -0.46 percentage points to -0.60 percentage points after the Census Bureau's Advance Economic Indicators release on December 28.

Later, 1:00 p.m. CT: S&P hit 2,700 for the first time ever. 

Later,  12:42 p.m. CT: wow, a talking head on CNBC suggests Tesla Model 3 units delivered will be closer to 2,250 than 3,000.

Later, 12:42 p.m. CT: WTI now up over 2%. WTI at $61.59.

Later, 10:48 a.m. CT: for more background on what's going on in New England -- see comments --

The fact that New England power generators are now importing fuel oil from Europe should come as no surprise as the LNG facility in Everitt, MA, gets its gas from Trinidad.

(Owner of Everitt facility - Engie - was staunch pipeline foe. In addition, Engie was technical advisor to MA Attorney General Healy who backed a soon-to-be-infamous report claiming new gas pipelines were unnecessary. Hmmm ...)

Wanna hear the craziest news of the day?

Source of the coal used in Bridgeport comes from Indonesia/Philippines from mining company Adaro who touts product as "EnviroCoal".

So, we have the Marcellus nearby, huge coal sources in Pennsylvania, US exporting LNG worldwide, and the New England policy makers have brought about a situation where their residents need to bring in fuel from Asia, the Caribbean, and now Europe to stay warm and keep the lights on for their families.

If this does not spur the wider population up there to become enraged and forcefully engage in this process which is - quite literally - destroying lives, then shame on them.

Original Post 

Top story going into the weekend: energy issues on the US east coast due to huge winter storm. See this post and see update below on this page. The US east coast, with temperatures hitting zero degrees, may have power/electric grid issues. North Dakota, with lowest global temperatures this week (- 45 degrees), apparently has no energy issues.

This story is shaping up to be the big story for the week. From twitter this morning, rare tankers of heating oil from Europe headed to the land of banned fracking and no pipelines:

Epic storm: Boston's epic cold snap ties a century-old record. It hasn't been this cold since 1918.


Ice: the Great Lakes have 9x the ice coverage of last year at this time. 

Strain: America's power grid is showing signs of strain during brutal cold -- Bloomberg. Gee, I wonder how that happened? Area of greatest concern is also where majority of CAVE dwellers seem to live.

Markets: all three major indices hit new highs.

WTI: solidly over $61 and up over 1% today.

Forties: that didn't take long. Forties Pipeline system now fully operational.

Presidential tweets; love 'em.

Lost decades coming to an end. US economy, another record, making American great again: manufacturing in US accelerates to cap best year since 2004 -- Bloomberg. President Trump is not mentioned in the article. That's why he needs to tweet. The mainstream media certainly isn't going to mention his economic policies actually might be working. Tags: lost decade; and, second lost decade.

Auto sales surprise, remain strong: auto sales, believe to have dropped in 2017, remain strong.

The U.S. auto industry's historic growth streak may be ending, but demand for new cars and trucks remains healthy as the new year begins.

U.S. sales of new vehicles are expected to fall 2 percent to 17.1 million in 2017, according to Kelley Blue Book. That would be the first year-over-year decline since 2009, ending an unprecedented seven-year expansion.

General Motors and Ford both reported a 1 percent decline in sales last year compared with 2016. Automakers are releasing monthly and annual sales numbers Wednesday.

While sales are likely to fall short of 2016's record of 17.55 million, 2017 is still expected to be the fourth-best sales year in U.S. history. Low unemployment and rising consumer confidence are expected to boost demand this year.

Auto sales -- it's all about the mix, not the absolute numbers. Financial Times reports that "vehicle sales in 2017 shaped up to be the worst year for the US auto industry since the financial crisis. But, as noted above, 2017 might be the fourth-best sales year in US history. But total sales mean less than what is selling.

Ford, from their press release:

• Ford brand sales: 8th consecutive year as America's best-selling vehicle brand
• full-year F-series sales increased 9.3%; best performance since 2005; marks 41 consecutive years for F-Series as America's best-selling pickup
• Ford-brand SUV sales set an all-time record
• trucks up 4.3%; SUVs up 4.3%; cars were down over 15%

Global warming: apparently the current winter storm will be at its worse starting at midnight tonight on the east coast. Thursday (tomorrow) will be bad, but Friday and Saturday will be horrendous -- and it's possible that there may be power outages -- reporting by CNBC. It will be interesting to follow ISO New England. Wind farms will shut down during the high winds. 

All eyes on North Korea. But it looks like Iran is imploding.

The Energy And Market Page, Part 2, T+312 -- November 29, 2017

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decision based on anything you read here or think you may have read here.

UNP: recently hiked its dividend 10%. Earlier this morning, shares hit a new 52-week high, but in afternoon trading really took off. Whoo-hoo. UNP shares jumped almost 4% (up $3.38) and are now trading above $121.

AAPL: on the other hand, not doing so well; two bad days in a row during which the market has surged. Down another 2.5% this afternoon, trading about $169. Hackers reported, and Apple confirmed, a security flaw but Apple has already released a patch to fix the vulnerability. It seems it would be a stretch that this issue is affecting Apple to this degree but I suppose it's possible. If so, the issue should be short-lived.

PLM: a cobalt shortage? From The WSJ, Supply will react too. Companies that operate copper and nickel mines, where cobalt is co-produced, are targeting expansion, and there are some pure-play cobalt mines being planned that could start producing shortly after the projected shortage hits. Comments? 130 -- a huge number of comments; a lot of folks interested in this topic. Gist of comments: it's all about Tesla, and that's why there were so many comments.

Tagged, lost decade. From The WSJ, US economy reaches its potential output for the first time in a decade. Let's see. Who was president this past decade? Oh, that's right.  U.S. GDP growth revised up to 3.3% rate for third quarter, with more business investment in equipment and software, and heftier government spending. Those commenting have it exactly right -- at 3.3% the US has not reached its potential. Reaching full potential -- at least 5 - 7% growth. Seriously.

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The Literary Page

In one paragraph, Jean Moorcroft Wilson explained the origins of WWI in her biography of Siegfried Sassoon. A few quick wiki checks to fill in the gaps and I now have my world view of the origins of WWI -- something I couldn't figure out despite years of reading about WWI off and on. Pretty impressive that an authority on war poets could explain this much history in one paragraph. My world view may be wrong, but I at least have the scaffolding now to begin any serious re-reading of WWI history.

The Political Page, T+276 -- October 24, 2017

Lost decade: wow, wow, wow. Jim Cramer, commenting on the stock market surge, says "it was a lost decade." I've talked about that for many years, even have a tag, "lost decade." Actually two lost decades -- the first under Bush II; the second under Obama. 

Death by a thousand cuts: Iowa halts effort to overhaul ObamaCare. The decision, after federal officials laid out tough conditions for its approval, signals limits to states' efforts to alter parts of the health law.

Iowa had applied for federal permission to move forward under a provision of the ACA that allows states to waive certain parts of the law. Though the Trump administration initially signaled it welcomed such initiatives, states have recently gotten mixed results for their applications. The foundering of Iowa’s much-watched effort will likely be seen as another caution flag as other states consider their own future proposals.

Separately, federal officials said a Massachusetts waiver application was incomplete and couldn’t be approved fast enough.

Iowa officials had said they wanted to repair an ACA exchange that is down to just one insurer next year, Medica. The company is increasing average premiums by around 57%, due partly to the Trump administration’s cutoff of federal cost-sharing payments to insurers.

Iowa’s governor, Republican Kim Reynolds, faulted the 2010 health law for Iowa’s individual insurance market problems and the failure of the waiver application, and she called the ACA “unworkable.”

Sour grapes? More people think rending is a better deal than buying. Some 76% of millennials said rending is an affordable option, up more than 10 percentage points from a year ago.

The data from the Freddie Mac survey and another by the National Multifamily Housing Council suggest there isn’t likely to be a shift toward owning from renting among old and young alike, due to financial reasons and those of lifestyle and preference.

Landlords are likely to see this as welcome news that a widespread shift toward owning isn’t coming anytime soon.

The data also indicate the persistent shortage of homes for sale on the single-family side is depressing the appetite for homeownership.

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Working On Her Spanish

The Political Page, T+217 -- August 25, 2017

EVs: Rigzone contributor: greater EV adoption relies on some big "ifs."

Electric vehicles (EV) constitute a very small share of all cars on the road worldwide. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the total number of EVs hit 2 million in 2016. Compare that to the nearly 1.3 billion figure of all vehicles worldwide, according to 2015 figures from the International Association of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers, and it's clear that EVs do not currently represent a personal transport juggernaut.

EV penetration in the global vehicle fleet could be considerably greater less than 20 years from now, however. A recent study by Wood Mackenzie and GTM Research predicts that more than one in five vehicles worldwide – or more than 350 million units – could be powered by electricity rather than the internal combustion engine. The study's authors foresee such a sharp EV growth trajectory under what they call a "carbon-constrained scenario."

These are the "big ifs":

Achieving a point where EVs make up more than 20 percent of the world's vehicle fleet would represent a significant milestone, but McConnell cautions that EV uptake faces some formidable obstacles. When asked what the biggest "ifs" are for EVs to become more widely accepted, he ticked off the following list:

• battery prices will need to fall fast enough so that sticker prices reach parity with internal combustion engine-powered vehicles
• charging infrastructure will need to be rolled out so that drivers can charge their EVs when and where they want
• the battery supply chain must "ramp up enormously," and it needs to incorporate battery recycling 

The top-3 list did not include "better batteries" -- longer life, longer range. Not much progress has been made in either area. In fact, the biggest names in the business (Sony, Toyota, Apple, GM) have been working on the "battery problem" for the past twenty years (or longer) and any number of small start-ups in the past ten years have failed or gone bankrupt trying to solve the "battery problem."

This tells me that it is unlikely there will be some major battery breakthrough in my investing lifetime. In fact, hydrogen and fuel cell technology may be the big surprise.

Debt limit: from a CNBC talking head this morning -- the likelihood of a government shut down over "the wall" and raising the debt limit and forcing a government shutdown:

• Trump does not care about the "GOP brand, and will play to his base (35% of the US population)
• the DEMS will play to their base -- they won't fund the wall
• the mainstream congressional GOP -- which the talking head called the "third party" -- will be "left in the lurch" or holding the short straw

All politics is local. A government shut-down is almost assured. The vitriol between T and M almost guarantees it. R seems the most "diplomatic" or should we say, the "most adult" among the three.

• T: Trump
• M: Ms Chao's husband
• R: Ryan

Trump rally continues. Dow 30 up over 100 points in early trading. Trump has been tweeting "like mad" this morning, threatens shutdown of the government, and the market rises 100 + points.

Inflation? What inflation? Central bankers have been trying for decades to "awaken long-dormant inflation" without success.

Anemic inflation has become a bugaboo for global central banks .... it's been a speed bump in the US Fed's path toward normalizing interest rates ...

... maybe central bankers need to encourage the Venezuelan model. LOL. Where's Paul Krugman when you need him?

Lost Decade: on CNBC, while discussing the Fed (Yellen vs Cohn), Rick Santelli called the last ten years, "the lost decade." I've had that "tag" for years.

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Amazon-Whole Foods

I assume almost everyone uses "loyalty cards' when shopping: 5% back on credit card purchases; significant discounts in grocery stores; discounts at gas stations; etc. Hold that thought.

[Last night I stopped at the grocery story for two items: cashier rang up $1.74. When I entered my "loyalty card number," the price came down to $0.99 -- a 43% savings. Don't tell me that Amazon doesn't have a lot of wiggle room on pricing.]

Amazon has said it will cut prices for products at Whole Foods. Talking heads argue that grocery prices really can't be cut that much without losing money.

For Amazon, Whole Foods was about two things (and it's not about groceries):

• the Amazon Prime credit card (see loyalty card above); and, 
• distribution centers and logistics behind these stores

Again, repeating, this is all about the credit card. The first is a no-brainer: Amazon has a lot of "wiggle" room on Whole Food prices when one looks at Amazon-Whole Foods-Prime credit card as a complete package. The Amazon Prime credit card costs $99 right now (more than what Costco charges).

It's all about the credit card, but then it dawned on me. I have never missed/lost an Amazon package. But there are occasions when the delivery is compromised/challenged because it is after-hours (or on Sundays when FedEx / UPS cannot get into our gated complex). In some urban areas, I am also aware that porch-theft, especially during the holidays, is a significant problem.

So think about this: I order something from Amazon; have it delivered to my local Whole Foods -- which, by the way is just down the street from where I live -- and then when I get a reminder from Amazon that my purchase has arrived, why wouldn't I combine a grocery shopping trip when picking up my purchase. I'm combing two trips into one; and the round trip is less than 10 miles, which would be perfect for an EV if I had one.

This Amazon - Whole Foods thing is becoming clearer and clearer:

• Amazon has a lot more wiggle room on grocery pricing than analysts are suggesting
• Whole Foods combines the best of the "Costco-Club" model
• Whole Foods Club members are already in place: anyone who has a Prime Credit card becomes a Whole Food Club member
• Whole Foods will be open to all (unlike Costco) and many non-Prime Credit card shoppers at Whole Foods will get a Prime credit card (it's also possible Amazon-Whole foods will offer a loyalty card to those who do not want to spend $99 for a credit card)
• we all knew that Whole Foods would become mini-distribution centers, but no one really articulated how they saw that working; now we know (see above)

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I Can See Clearly Now, Johnn Nash 

We've Had Two Lost Decades -- Will The Next Ten Years Be America's Decade? -- November 23, 2016

Wow -- GDP Now:

Latest forecast: 3.6 percent — November 23, 2016.

The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2016 is 3.6 percent on November 23, unchanged from November 17.

The contributions of real equipment investment and real inventory investment to fourth-quarter growth increased from 0.32 percentage points to 0.38 percentage points and 0.50 percentage points to 0.56 percentage points, respectively, after this morning's advance durable manufacturing report from the U.S. Census Bureau.

The forecast of fourth-quarter real residential investment growth declined from 10.8 percent to 7.1 percent after yesterday's existing-home sales release from the National Association of Realtors and this morning’s releases on new single-family home sales, prices, and construction costs from the Census Bureau.

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Deere Hits All-Time High

Jumps 10% Today

At $101.10, up $9.08 today.

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The Political Page

From twitter: Trump nemesis Mark Cuban quietly meets with Steve Bannon. At one time Mark Cuban supported Trump and at one time Cuban even said he would be willing to take job in Trump's administration.

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The Hare With Amber Eyes: A Family's Century of Art and Loss

 Edmund de Waal, 

c. 2010

Preface, from Charles Swann, Cities of the Plain, Marcel Prout:

Even when one is no longer attached to things,
it's still something to have been attached to them;
because it was always for reasons which other people didn't grasp.

Now that I'm a little too weary to live with other people,
these old feelings,
so personal and individual,
that I had in the past, seem to me --
it's the mania of all collectors -- very precious.

I open my heart to myself like a sort of vitrine,
and examine one by one all those love affairs
of which the world can know nothing.

And of this collection to which I'm now much more attached than to my others,
I say to myself,
rather as Mazarin said of his books,
but in fact without the least distress,
that it will be very tiresome to have to leave it all.

That's the way I feel about Yorkshire, England.

I am still attached to Yorkshire,
for reasons I don't understand,
and for reasons other people will never grasp.

Now that I'm a little too weary to live with other people,
these old feelings,
so personal and individual,
these old feelings,
that I had in the past,
these old feelings
remain, still, very precious.

And of this collection of feelings about Yorkshire,
I'm more attached than ever.
I say to myself, unlike Marcel,
that I say it with distress,
that it will be impossible to ever forget her. 

US Crude Oil Imports Remain Persistently High -- September 15, 2016

Biggest energy story of the day: Brits okay huge nuclear power plant at huge price. Story below. 

AAPL: It's been a wild week for the world's biggest stock. Apple shares surged 3.5 percent Wednesday — after rising 2.4 percent Tuesday — and climbing 2.2 percent on Monday. Over the past three sessions, the company has added some $50 billion in market capitalization. The reason: their iPhones do not explode.

Active rigs:

	9/15/2016	09/15/2015	09/15/2014	09/15/2013	09/15/2012
Active Rigs	34	71	199	178	193

RBN Energy: US crude oil imports continue to rise.

Net crude oil imports to the U.S. Gulf Coast in 2016 have been running well above the pace set last year, the increase driven by a combination of lower U.S. crude oil production, rising import levels and relatively flat export volumes. The trend toward higher net imports –– an outgrowth of the end of the ban on U.S. crude exports –– is significant in that it affects oil inventories and oil prices. What’s driving this trend, and how soon might net imports peak? Today, we survey recent developments on the crude oil import/export front, with a focus on the Gulf Coast.

Crude oil traders and the audience at the U.S. Open in Flushing Meadows, NY had one thing in common recently: their heads have been whirling, side to side and up and down. In the case of crude oil traders this was due to a sharp drop in imports in the week ending September 2, followed by a sharp rise the following week. The rollercoaster was caused primarily by the coincidence of three factors: a hurricane preventing discharges at Chevron's Pascagoula, MS refinery and disrupting offloading at the Louisiana Offshore Oil Port; the Labor Day holiday slowing operations elsewhere; and the decision by importers in Texas to reduce their intake of imported barrels ahead of the ad valorem tax assessment on September 1. Soon after tax day, the crude came flooding back in. 

Refiners typically would be expected to take in less crude oil in September ahead of maintenance season in the fall. So far, this is not panning out. Waterborne imports in the first 12 days of September are at 3.24 MMb/d, compared to 3.22 MMb/d in August. Based on the number of vessels currently sailing toward the U.S. Gulf Coast, we expect the week ending September 16 to see a dip in imports, followed by a rebound in the week ending September 23, and an equally strong showing in the final week of September. Looking at the entire month, we expect September to show imports about 500 Mb/d higher than in the same month of 2015. This is a wider gap than the 300-Mb/d excess of August 2016 over August 2015. So, if there is to be an inflection point suggesting lower imports, it doesn’t appear likely to happen in September. 

The most important short-term driver for the swings in import levels is shipments from the Middle East Gulf. (Latin American deliveries can swing widely over a few days but quickly revert to a mean.) Middle East producers prize the U.S. market, in part because it remains the largest consumer of oil in the world, and they have kept their prices for U.S. buyers low. Flows from the Middle East have stayed correspondingly high. Looking beyond September, there appears to be enough Middle Eastern oil on the water expected to arrive along the U.S. Gulf Coast in October to hold imports near 1.1 MMb/d for that month. This is in line with August and September levels. So again, there’s no inflection point on the horizon.

Two comments:

• nothing mentioned about overall US gasoline demand (in other words, we saw the numerator, but not the denominator
• no comment about fact that Saudi Aramco has a huge refinery on the Gulf Coast 

**************************************

Job watch: here's the spin for the day -- "applications for US jobless benefits rise less than forecast." Applications edged up 1,000 to 260,000; four-week average dropped to 260,750. 

********************************
UK Approves Huge Nuclear Power Plant

Updates

September 16, 2016: Bloomberg Gadfly weighs in on this. 

Original Post 

Really? Approval for UK's first nuclear-power plant in 20 years announced today. Could be most expensive object ever built: $24 billion. Data points:

• two new reactors
• to be built by French utility along with China General Nuclear Power Corp
• Hinkley Point C, Somerset County, southwest England near two existing plants, one of which has been decommissioned
• huge project; from wiki: 3,200 MW nuclear power plant: $24 billion / 3,200 MW = $7.5 million / MW
• equivalent to three large coal-fired stations
• UK pledges to pay the French utility twice the current market price for electricity for the next 35 years
• French utility gets 9% return on investment
• Brits could pay $48 billion above the market rate over the lifetime of the project
• NOTE: not pay $48 billion BUT pay $48 billion ABOVE the market rate for the project
• would satisfy 7% of UK's power demand
• this is before cost over-runs
• will take a decade before it comes on-line 
• EIA's estimate for new power plant costs
• this speaks volumes about state of global energy

********************************

US retail sales in US decline August by more than forecast, falling 0.3% vs expected 0.1% drop.

Maybe there wasn't enough to buy: manufacturing output in US fell in August. 

New York manufacturing remained weak in September. 

Mexico: Ford moving all small-auto production in the US to Mexico. Toyota moving Tacoma pick-up production from US to Mexico.

Benghazi: Colin Powell says, in e-mail to Condi Rice, that the Benghazi congressional hearings were a witch hunt. Rice said she agreed.

IRS. House GOP won't push for vote on impeachment of IRS chief.

Richard Dawkins: oldest fossils in Greenland (stromatolites) pushes origin of life on earth back to 3.7 billion years ago. Previously, origin of life was estimated to be between about 2 billion and 1 billion years ago (John Hands, CosmoSapiens, c. 2015, p. 286).

AAPL: shares are soaring -- CNBC yesterday.

Energy: Zacks highlights: Spectra Energy, Enbridge, Apache, EOG, and Tesoro.

Crazy: US consumes about 10 million bbls of gasoline daily. India? one-half million bbls of gasoline daily.

Crazier: Venezuela where eggs now cots $150/dozen. 

Most valuable sports franchise: Dallas Cowboys, $4 billion. In 1989, the current owner paid $140 million for the franchise.

Grisly. Water runs red. I was witness to similar "atrocities" when stationed in Turkey.

*************************************

Lost Decade

The story in today's WSJ graphically shows how bad things have gotten under the Obama administration.

The Journal looked at income gains/losses among states, comparing 2015 income with income in 2008. It's hard to say whether the 2008 figures were pre-recession / post-recession. The recession hit full-force in 2009.

The Journal looked at 13 states -- chosen because they are politically important this year. Of the thirteen only three showed any income increase over the past decade, and the gains were minimal:

• Colorado: 1.9%
• Iowa; 1.5%
• New Hampshire: 0.2%

My hunch: expenses over the past decade grew a lot faster than 2% for those folks.
Now the really bad news, the ten states who saw their incomes actually decrease:

• Nevada: -15.5%
• Georgia: -8.5%
• Arizona: -8.2%
• North Carolina: -6.7%
• Florida: -6.0%
• Michigan: -4.5%
• Ohio: 3.3%
• Wisconsin: -3.0%
• Virginia:-1.7%
• Pennsylvania: -0.2% 

Earlier in the week, the Journal reported equally bad news with an upbeat headline:

• Median household incomes stood 1.6% shy of the 2007 level, before the last recession took its toll, and 2.4% below the all-time high reached in 1999.

So, everyone is excited that US household income is surging -- and yet it is 2.4% below that of 1999.

Two lost decades. The first under George Bush. The second under Barack Obama.

However, that wasn't the big story. The big story was the "haves" vs the "have-nots." Some states are doing well; others are in deep, deep trouble.

***************************

Valiant Ambition: George Washington, Benedict Arnold, and the Fate of the American Revolution

Nathaniel Philbrick

c. 2016

DDS: 973.4 PHI

Chapter 4

The Year of the Hangman

1777

Recap: 1775 - 1776

• Benedict Arnold, successful in holding Fort Ticonderoga; prevented British forces from the north connecting with Howe on the Hudson; HQ is Morristown, NJ
• Geo Washington: a series of failures; retreats; crossed the Delaware twice; finally takes Trenton, NJ; his HQ across the Delaware in Newton, PA

This chapter:

• Benedict Arnold in Morristown; wants to rid his hometown, New Haven, CT, of the Brits
• both Geo Washington and Arnold upset with Continental Congress
• Geo Washington handles it better than Arnold
• Benedict sees action in Connecticut; Brits perhaps won, but at great cost, and not much to show for it
• Washington moves HQ to Morristown, NW, where Benedict had been
• Benedict promoted to major general based on actions in CT, but still not give seniority; he submits letter of resignation 
• "year of the hangman": so-called because the Brits planned to hang several turncoats/rebels (not sure if that ever happened)

Key takeaway: 

• Geo Washington finally switches tactics that will allow him to win the war; quit fighting the British offensively; fight a defensive war; guerilla war; war of attrition

Now: 

• the chapter is important for continuity, but not much happened in the big scheme of things

Friday, July 31, 2015 -- Part III

 Updates

August 1, 2015: the wing has arrived at a French facility.  The linked story is dated August 1, 2015, but no time-stamp was placed.

Original Post

 

Is it just me or does it seem we are being slow-rolled on the investigation of that piece of wing found off Madagascar (Reunion Island), thought to be part of a Boeing 777? Only one Boeing 777 has ever been lost. This morning, a news story on the radio reported that the wing part is being flown to some military installation where it will be studied.

Call me naive, but you can't tell me that Boeing couldn't have had a team on the ground by now, and verified "yes/no" it was part of a Boeing 777?

This seems to be dragging out much longer than seems reasonable.

***********************

Lost Decade

From AEIdeas: Lost Decade? The US is about to have its first 10-year period since World War II without at least one year of 3% growth. [Another reason, no doubt, the Obama administration decided a few months ago to revise the formula for calculating the nation's GDP.] This will be the legacy President Obama leaves us. 

If you read the Bloomberg article, which I doubt any will do, just remember that President Obama presided over the second lost decade. (The first lost decade, 1998 - 2008; the second lost decade, 2008 - present).

`This has been a uniquely slow period of growth that's delivered very little for low- and middle-income households,'' said Jared Bernstein, a senior fellow at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities in Washington and former chief economist for Vice President Joe Biden. ``We need to grow faster and more equitably.'' 

The last time America expanded at 3 percent-plus for the year was 2005, according to Commerce data.  That means the nation is on track to miss such growth for an entire decade, a first in the post-World War II era. Why?

Notice the words that were not seen in the linked article: TrainWreck, ObamaCare, Keystone, wind energy, solar energy, Solyndra, trillion-dollar stimulus, Fed rate.

Notice the phrase in the linked article: " ... a uniquely slow period of growth." Unique = one.

And this phrase: "... that's delivered very little for low- and middle-income households." Very little? How about nothing?

At the same that story was being read, Reuters reported that GE may ship $10 billion in work overseas as U.S. trade bank languishes. Not much more needs to be said. 

****************************

Native Americans Didn't Read The Act Either

NativeAmericans on the hook for big fine from US government for "avoiding" OabamaCare.

**************************************

American Pie, Don McLean

The Obama War On Pipelines -- November 2, 2014

January 20, 2017, can't come soon enough.

Over at IceAgeNow:

A 2013 INGAA Foundation study found that the number of interstate natural gas pipeline authorizations issued more than 90 days after federal environmental assessments were completed climbed from 8% to 28% since Congress passed the 2005 Energy Policy Act. Rather than streamlining permits, as Congress had intended, the law had the opposite effect. It removed the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission’s ability to keep project reviews on a strict schedule, allowed both state and federal agencies to drag their heels on pipeline permitting, and opened the door to more objections by environmental pressure groups.

Authorization delays were caused by conflicts among federal agencies, as well as inadequate or under-trained agency staff, applicant changes to projects requiring additional or revised environmental review (often in response to environmentalist or other third-party protests and demands), site-access problems, and FERC and other agency reviews of requirements for mitigating asserted environmental impacts, INGAA concluded. Increased partisanship at FERC has also increased delays.

The Obama Army Corps of Engineers slowed pipeline permits by citing the Clean Water Act. Its Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) cited the Migratory Bird Treaty Act to justify slow-walking permits. Its Environmental Protection Agency wants to control all “waters of the United States," so as to exert regulatory authority over activities on federal, state and private lands – including drilling, fracking and pipelines – in the name of sustainability, climate change prevention and other eco-mantras.

The MBTA bans the “taking” (harassing, harming, killing, capturing or wounding) of migratory birds, their nests and eggs related to natural gas pipelines and other projects. Because building a pipeline requires clearing a right-of-way, excavating and other activities that could affect wildlife for a short time, a permit is required. But native grasses soon cover the route, and state-of-the-art steel, valves and safety features greatly reduce the likelihood of ruptures and spills, compared to earlier generation pipelines.

And yet the Obama FWS drags its feet on pipeline permits – while approving numerous renewable energy projects beloved by the President and his “green” base, including massive wind turbines that slaughter millions of eagles, hawks, bats and other threatened, endangered and migratory species every year.

Much more at the link. Can't wait until we get adult leadership back in the White House. Another lost decade.

For me personally, I just keep sending letters of "thank you" to the great folks of Minnesota and Nebraska.  Posted earlier:

On another note, it's a shame Warren Buffett bought Burlington Northern Santa Fe some years ago. The closest I can find to compare BNSF is the Union Pacific.

Check out the 10-year graph: http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=UNP+Interactive#{%22range%22%3A%225y%22%2C%22scale%22%3A%22linear%22}.

BNSF, BRK, and UNP investors need to thank Nebraska and Minnesota for the windfall.

By the way, when you get to the 10-year graph on UNP, be sure to look at the bottom of the graph and note the increase in dividends: from 13.5 cents/share in 2009, to 50 cents currently.

And, also note, that the shares split 2-1 back in June, 2014. I assume this means that one is effectively getting $1.00/share, but I could be wrong on that.

Reminder: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here. Don't change any travel plans based on what you read here. 

One of the things about investing, don't fight reality. Watch what's coming out of Washington, DC; it's an open-book test.

********************************
Sports Restaurant Mismanagement

At lap 287, of a 334-lap race, of the NASCAR race I raced down to the neighborhood sports restaurant to see the finish. Wow, not one television set tuned to the race. The Cowboys game was over, so they must have been watching the New England Patriots blow out the Denver Broncos. I raced home on my bike to catch the end of the race on the internet (we don't get ESPN on our basic cable).

What an incredible race to have watched. Last lap -- 334 -- following a caution -- Jimmy Johnson / Jeff Gordon -- 1-- 2. Another caution. Keselowksi fights for 1st. Gordon spins. The caution. 

For all I know the race is over; internet delayed.

I see Gordon did not finish in the top 5. Spun out. It will be interesting to read the sports story.

Having said that, I'm a bit disgusted with the local sports restaurant. The owner has two sports restaurants on the same frontage road about a quarter-mile apart. He must have been struggling because he shut one down this past year and is selling it. In my mind, he shut down the better of the two. Be that as it may, it seems to be me poor management when all television sets are tuned to one football game that does not even involve the local team. If the football game were important, or even close (in score), maybe. But this was a Broncos-Patriot game (the restaurant is in Texas) and the Patriots were blowing out the Broncos. There were probably other football games -- I didn't stick around long enough to look -- but no NASCAR -- third to last race this season -- everything on the line -- and at the Texas Motor Speedway about 20 miles to the west, no less. I am truly amazed. And disappointed.

[Later: saw the comments about Keselowski/Gordon in the green-white-checker. I'm a huge fan of Jeff Gordon's but I think he may have blown it. Keselowski was his usual aggressive self; Gordon failed.]

**********************************

99 Things To Do; Bitchin' Is Not One Of Them

I saw that quote over at the Macrumors discussion board the other day. It's a great quote. I use it every time my wife complains about something trivial.

I thought of that when I went to check NASCAR to see the write-up on the finish of today's race, and saw a headline about "thousands turn out to protest Redskins' name at Minnesota game." My hunch is 99% don't even know what "redskin" refers to  (it's not what you think, at least not what I think you think).

So, let the thousands protest the Redskin's name. I've got 99 other things to do, protesting the Redskins' name is not one of them:

• buy flowers for my wife -- done
• pick up photos at Walgreens of our granddaughters -- done
• read some more of my book on dinosaurs and birds -- done
• watch Only Lovers Left Alive -- doing
• follow today's NASCAR race on the internets -- done
• look at UNP's share price over the past five years -- done
• study investment opportunities -- doing
• pour another beverage of my choice -- done
• plan my trip back to the Bakken -- doing
• thaw an Omaha Steak wrapped in bacon for dinner -- doing done (ready to grill)
• blog -- doing
• delete spam -- doing
• ride my bike to local sports restaurant to check out NASCAR -- done
• journal about the loves of my life (three of them; all female; two incredibly sexy; one incredibly beautiful; one incredibly young for being 56 years old)
• sending photos of our granddaughters to my mom who lives on her own in the Rocky Mountains
• reply to e-mail from readers
• pour myself another beverage of my choice -- going to do in a few minutes
• look at the picture of a whitetail that Don sent me
• start preparing dinner for my wife and me; she should be home any minute; babysitting new granddaughter
• continue watching Only Lovers Left Alive -- doing
• plan agenda for daughter who arrives from Portland Tuesday
• plan agenda for brother-in-law, his wife, who arrive from California Tuesday
• watch one or two episodes of Big Bang Theory later tonight while eating dinner
• watch a bit of Sunday Night Football later tonight
• watch Lost In Translation at midnight
• check in on the Broncos-Patriots game -- done (43 - 21; what a debacle)
• write letter to bicycling friends in California, about cycling fun out here

The Gap Widens

This is the top link at Yahoo!Finance at the moment: how Americans will adapt to lower living standards.

Tyler Cowen, author of Average Is Over: Powering America Beyond the Age of the Great Stagnation, creates a stark image of a future U.S. economy in which most people either rocket toward the top or drift toward the bottom.

For me the "great stagnation" is the "Lost Decade: which is a tag at the bottom of the blog. I haven't added much to the "Lost Decade" in a long time.  The "Lost Decade," by the way, has become the two lost decades: first, 2000 - 2007 (not quite ten years), and now 2008 - 2018 (slightly longer than one ten-year period. 

Americans may adapt to lower living standards (like the Brits have done) but at least "we" will have the specter of "free" healthcare for all, whereas the Brits actually have it.

I don't quite agree that "most" people will "rocket" toward the top or drift toward the bottom. I think about 20% of educated, investing Americans -- many employed by the US government, including the military -- will "rocket" toward the top; another 47% will remain among the lower-middle class, lower class, and the "homeless"; another 40% (which we used to call the working middle class) will actually drift toward the bottom.

The upper-middle class (the 20% noted above) will disappear ( most will become rich, but not super-rich, who in turn will be different than the hyper-rich). The middle-middle class (the 40% noted above) will drift toward the lower middle class.

The upper-middle class will be those who have incomes that match those in Congress who were voted in before they were "rich." If that makes sense.

The remaining 3% (super-rich and mega-rich) will be the John Kerry-s and the Warren Buffett-s of America.

I don't see the "47%" number changing much, but I do see the quality of life improving immensely for about half of this group; deteriorating for the other half.

***********************

A Note To The Granddaughters

I picked up The Last Stand: Custer, Sitting Bull, and The Battle of the Little Bighorn, by Nathaniel Philbrick, c. 2010, at the museum / bookstore at the Chief Crazy Horse Memorial just north of Custer, South Dakota, in the Black Hills.

Absolutely fascinating book. I will write about it when I have time over at my literature blog. 

Europe Is No Longer Worried About Global Warming: Switching To Coal In Lieu Of Natural Gas

This is a most interesting article. Industry leaders are focused on investment opportunities, in this case, coal vs natural gas. But the Oil and Gas Journal editors missed the bigger story; perhaps they will reference it in an editorial.

Faux environmentalists in the US are focused on global warming, and missing these stories, like the one linked above. This is from Europe; the article suggests it is not as bad in Asia, but my hunch is that it is still an issue --> a switch to cheap coal.

This is a hard article to read; I doubt faux environmentalists will get through to the end of the article.

Expensive, oil-indexed-priced natural gas in Europe is struggling to compete with plentiful coal and subsidized renewables.
....  Europe in 2011 was alone among the world’s gas-market regions in seeing a decline in natural gas demand. .... in fact it was lower than in 2009, the year following the start of the global financial crisis.

That drop in 2011 was due not only to milder winter weather but also to high commodity prices and lower regional gross domestic product. Removing weather from the equation, she called the last 10 years in European gas demand a “lost decade.”

And 2012 is looking no better: Natural gas demand for the first 7 months of 2012 fell by 3%. Since 2011, she said, high-priced gas can no longer compete with coal, especially increased cheap supplies from the US. Those supplies in turn are being driven out by record-low US gas prices.

Wow, in Europe, "high-priced gas can no longer compete with coal." I'm not sure what is meant in the last linked paragraph above "... especially increased cheap supplies from the US." What cheap supplies, coal or natural gas? I assume coal.

Regardless, the financial crisis has trumped ideology: Europe is no longer focused on global warming.

The US is going to go it alone. Trying to turn back the global warming clock on its own. 

[Note: this use of "lost decade" is different than my use of "Lost Decade," but that's a different post for a different time. See tag at bottom of blog for "Lost Decade" and "Second Lost Decade."]

The Lost Decade -- Absolutely Nothing To Do With The Bakken

If you came here for the Bakken, please scroll up or down until you find a story about the Bakken, but avoid this post at all costs.

There is a story elsewhere on the "lost decade." I haven't read this particular story yet. I started talking about the "lost decade" a very long time ago, and even have a tag at the bottom of the post, "Lost Decade." In fact, I even have a new tag, the "Second Lost Decade."

Sometime in 2008, 2009, maybe 2010, I was optimistic with regard to the end of the first "Last Decade." I defined the first "Lost Decade" as 2001 to 2010, inclusive, as the "lost decade."  I thought that "we" might turn the corner, but then I noted two things

First, starting about a year ago, maybe two years ago, it became very obvious that the mainstream media was printing more and more stories about the immorality of making money in the US. Even "too big to fail" is a subset of those stories (the federal government and the states of California and Illinois are exceptions: they are too big to fail).

And, then, last Friday, to entrepreneurs, "If you have a company, you did not build it, someone else did." And something to the effect that the government built the internet so everyone could make money off it.

So, I see another "lost decade" in the works, regardless of how November turns out. We are already well into 2012, business plans are in the works for 2013, and it takes awhile for an economy the size of the US to turn around. With the mainstream media printing more and more stories on the immorality of making money in the US, ... not a pretty picture.

But I remain an eternal optimist. Just remember the story about the two walkers in the forest confronted by a bear, and one walker asks the other why the other is putting on tennis shoes, noting that even with tennis shoes, he won't be able to outrun the bear.

An Inconvenient Truth -- Wow, Is It Ever!

From Yahoo!News:

President Barack Obama's Secretary of Energy Stephen Chu uttered the kind of Washington gaffe that consists of telling the truth when inconvenient. According to Politico, Chu admitted to a House committee that the administration is not interested in lowering gas prices. 

Chu, along with the Obama administration, regards the spike in gas prices as a feature rather than a bug. High gas prices provide an incentive for alternate energy technology, a priority for the White House, and a decrease in reliance on oil for energy. 

The Heritage Foundation points out that hammering the American consumer with high gas prices to make electric and hybrid cars more appealing is consistent with Obama administration policy and Chu's philosophy. That explains the refusal to allow the building of the Keystone XL pipeline and to allow drilling in wide areas of the U.S. and offshore areas. 

The consequences of the policy are not likely to be of benefit to the Obama administration. The Republican National Committee has already issued a video highlighting the spike in gas prices and the failure of the administration to address the issue.

Another lost decade. 

Lost Decade

Link here. After reading the story, the headline should have read: Another Lost Decade

It will be forever lost, who coined the phrase "lost decade," but I know I was among the first to use it.

I used the phrase in my first blog, which I deleted one evening in a fit of temporary insanity (wow, I lost some great posts).

The "lost decade" I was referring to was 2000 - 2010. I had periods of optimism in 2011 that "we" would be moving out of that "lost decade" into a decade of opportunity, but that, too, appears to be a mirage.

There will be a generation of Americans who will never work, at least not work in the area for which they had hoped. Another group of Americans, those aged 45+ and having been laid off from their life-long career, will also never work again.

For me, in the field that most interests me (energy), killing the Keystone XL may be the defining moment of 2012. I hope it is does not define the entire decade, but one wonders.

From the link above, in case the link breaks:

Five years after the credit crisis began, Western economies are confronting the prospect of a lost decade of growth, and international diplomats are warning the damage could get even worse if Europe allows its sovereign debt crisis to fester much longer.

International Monetary Fund chief Christine Lagarde is heading to Berlin on Monday to urge action after the IMF called for member countries to provide the fund with $500 billion for new loans to help out troubled countries.

G20 officials also say Europe must double the size of its rescue fund to $1 trillion as a crucial step to stabilize financial markets and prevent the euro-zone crisis from spreading. Europe finance ministers meet on their debt plan on Tuesday.

The World Bank already sees the damage taking hold as European banks pull back their lending to emerging economies. Last week it slashed its growth forecast more than one percentage point to 2.5 percent for 2012, a pace not seen since 2008 when the world was last in a global recession.

Te Deum, Arvo PartFor Pat.

Europe Now Facing A "Lost Decade"

"Lost decade" stories have been tagged since January, 2011, at this site.

The phrase has since become mainstream for the US.

Now we see that others are writing about the "lost decade" facing Europe. I find it fascinating because all the technological advances in the field of hydrocarbon energy suggest that this could be one of the most exciting decades ever, if only folks weren't afraid of progress.

As just one example: France banning fracking.