Lucid Update -- September 11, 2023

Locator: 45620EVS.

Holy mackerel! What a great Monday Night NFL game! Holy mackerel!

Okay, now back to reality. 

Could We See $88 Tomorrow? September 11, 2023

Locator: 45619WTI.

This Pipeline Is Dead -- A CO2 Pipeline -- South Dakota Denies Permit -- September 11, 2023

Locator: 45618CCS.

Link here.

An earlier post:

Holy Mackerel -- It Never Quits In The Bakken -- September 11, 2023

Locator: 45617ND.

Link here.

Near Williston.

600 MW.

 

LOL. Does One Really Think That Saudi's MSB Really Cares? September 11, 2023

Locator: 45616OIL.

First of all, $90-oil is not all that high when put into historical perspective and then ... 

From this evening over at oilprice.com:

From a few days ago:

And, of course, Russia needs all the revenue it can get -- it's at war.

A Closer Look At Four New Wells Proposed By Hess -- September 11, 2023

Locator: 45615B.

Right now these permits are not confidential; at some point they will become confidential.

Note: there is much more to do on this post, but it gives one an idea of what's going on in this very, very busy area. 

This is my interpretation of the various file reports which are not yet confidential.  My interpretation could be wrong, but I'm pretty sure I'm pretty close. Readers are welcome to point out my errors so I can correct them. Except for one well, I believe they are all standard two-mile horizontals, but one appears to be a three-mile lateral.  

With the spacing unit already so "crowded," I was curious how Hess was going to squeeze in four or five more wells.

In today's daily activity report, the new permits:

The site where these wells will be sited (inside the oval):

From the company's file report for one of the proposed wells:

And specifically, the wells as listed below In red, I've added the NDIC file number. I am unable to find the fifth file number:

 This is the company's diagram. I will notate it later and provide more explanation later.

Basic information:

• 40193, 2560-acre: 31 / 32 / 33 / 34 - 155-93; Three Forks first bench, BH: 31-155-93; 21209 feet TD;
• 40194, 3840-acre: 26 / 27 / 28 / 33 / 34 / 35 - 155-93; Three Forks first bench, BH: 35-155-93; 26128 feet TD;
• 40195, 2560-acre: 29 / 20 / 31 / 32 - 155-93; middle Bakken, BH: 31-155-93; BH: 31-155-93; Alger; 200965 feet;
  
• 40196, 1280-acre: 21 / 28 - 155-93; Three Forks first bench, BH: 21-155-93; 20673 feet TD;

More:

• Except for #40196, an EN-Dobrovolny well, which runs south to north; the other three wells run east to west, or west to east but regardless of whether they run east or run west, are named EN-Cvancara wells. 

• The two wells that run to the west:
• 40195, A-LN 1, runs east to west and is north of:
• 40193, A, which also runs east to west.

• The two wells that run to the east:
• xxxxx, LS-1, will run west to east; no file number yet (?), and will be north of:
• 40194, LS-2, will run west to east.

Five New Permits; Two Permits Renewed; Three DUCs Reported As Completed -- September 11, 2023

Locator: 45614B.

Active rigs: 35.

Five new permits, #40193 - #40197, inclusive:

• Operators: Hess (4); Five States Operating
• Fields: Robinson Lake (Mountrail); and, Rocky Hill (Stark)
• Comments:
• Hess has permits for three EN-Cvancara A wells and one EN-Dobrovolny well, SESE 29-155-93, 
• to be sited 412 FSL and between 726 FEL and 825 FEL;
• Five States Operating has a permit for an RH well, NWNW 16-138-99; 
• to be sited 350 FNL and 1270 FWL

Two permits renewed:

• BR: a Manchester permit, and a Concord permit, both SWSW 10-147-97;

Three producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 38392, 1,585, Slawson, Lunker Federal 3-33-4H,
• 39266, 1,612, Grayson Mill, Porter 26-35 3H,
• 39613, 921, Kraken, Gladys 29-20-17 3H,

New Covid-19 Vaccines Approved By FDA -- Should Be Available Within Days -- September 11, 2023

Locator: 45613COVID.

Link here.

Memo to self: RSV, "seasonal flu," and Covid-19 (Autumn - 2023).

*************************************
Buc-ee's

On our cross-country trip from Dallas to Philadelphia, three Buc-ee's: Royse City, TX, northeast of Dallas; Nashville, and Knoxville. 

We had so much fun stopping at each one.

Here I am shopping at midnight (or thereabouts) for gifts for the grandchildren at the Buc-ee's in Nashville (or maybe it was Knoxville). 

The Bakken Continues To Amaze -- September 11, 2023

Locator: 45612B.

Just look at all the work that yet needs to be done. This is one section -- less than a mile from far west well to far east well, and look at all the wells still on confidential status:

This is happening all over the Bakken.

A BR Saddle Butte Well Is Starting To Report -- A Very Nice Well -- September 11, 2023

Locator: 45611B. 

 From a year ago:

• 30925, loc/IA, BR, Saddle Butte 44-9TFH North Fork; starting to produce; no data; production now:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	7-2023	26	17314	17508	14166	31586	28905	1295
BAKKEN	6-2023	30	33302	33125	28645	30977	26226	3615
BAKKEN	5-2023	31	10315	10182	5967	11161	10419	275
BAKKEN	4-2023	30	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2023	21	214	214	0	0	0	0

 And, also, this, from a year ago:

• 37814, loc/IA, BR, Saddle Jerome 44-9 MBH-ULW, North Fork, starting to production; minimal production reported;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	7-2023	26	21633	21633	13100	38750	37138	1576
BAKKEN	6-2023	30	31676	31508	16552	44690	39228	3762
BAKKEN	5-2023	31	2714	2714	1281	5166	4884	63
BAKKEN	4-2023	30	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2023	24	153	153	7352	4161	3044	0

Two BR Curtis Wells Starting To Report; Nice But Not Great Wells -- September 11, 2023

Locator: 45610B.

From a year ago:

• 30924, loc/A, BR, Curtis 44-9 MBH, North Fork; starting to produce; no data;
• 30923, loc/A, BR, Curtis 44-9 TFH, North Fork; starting to produce; no data;

Now, new production data:

• 30923:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	7-2023	11	1971	1985	2150	3300	3004	152
BAKKEN	6-2023	30	2856	2829	2999	3429	3054	226
BAKKEN	5-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2023	30	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2023	15	0	0	0	0	0	0

• 30924:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	7-2023	26	17988	17988	9172	33746	30937	1325
BAKKEN	6-2023	30	12892	13037	6582	12009	10364	1196
BAKKEN	5-2023	31	20580	20315	7586	21742	20789	22
BAKKEN	4-2023	30	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2023	12	0	0	0	0	0	0

Updating A Nice Oasis Siverston Well And Another Example Of The Halo Effect -- September 11, 2023

Locator: 45609B. 

 Halo effect and look how long "the halo effect" is lasting / lasted:

•  17952, 406, Oasis, Klamm 13-10H, Siverston; t-6/09; cum 274K 7/23; recent production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	7-2023	12	984	761	1205	4979	4923	2
BAKKEN	6-2023	28	2002	2019	1849	7301	7199	0
BAKKEN	5-2023	31	1940	2309	1518	8883	5876	2905
BAKKEN	4-2023	30	2745	2550	1902	9798	9637	55
BAKKEN	3-2023	31	2008	2188	2453	7120	5655	1436
BAKKEN	2-2023	27	2938	2808	2877	9776	7643	2107
BAKKEN	1-2023	31	3229	3257	2319	11318	9804	1371
BAKKEN	12-2022	18	2989	3001	7025	7163	6517	616
BAKKEN	11-2022	30	4943	4784	2795	11766	11575	37
BAKKEN	10-2022	31	4626	4440	60	11326	10863	423
BAKKEN	9-2022	24	2939	2939	2005	7163	5992	1060
BAKKEN	8-2022	30	5385	5720	150	12011	11203	685
BAKKEN	7-2022	31	7728	7755	10003	16305	15873	52
BAKKEN	6-2022	30	6715	6567	11374	13326	11698	1256
BAKKEN	5-2022	27	5183	5497	9975	10418	4850	5237
BAKKEN	4-2022	19	3775	3219	10050	6260	5143	839
BAKKEN	3-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2022	0	0	59	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2021	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2021	29	381	479	145	1355	1345	1
BAKKEN	9-2021	29	675	715	320	1954	1895	39
BAKKEN	8-2021	28	605	472	150	1976	1953	6
BAKKEN	7-2021	31	570	713	150	1805	1515	275
BAKKEN	6-2021	28	614	706	47	716	404	32
BAKKEN	5-2021	31	630	482	150	1867	404	1153

The neighboring well:

• 38334, F/A, Oasis, Soto 5097 12-3 3B, Siverston; very nice well; t--; cum 297K 4/23; cum 325K 7/23; full production profile:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	7-2023	31	8120	8150	9236	52635	52097	41
BAKKEN	6-2023	30	8976	9046	8620	57067	56176	336
BAKKEN	5-2023	31	10194	10159	10241	64849	64035	310
BAKKEN	4-2023	30	10849	10845	11665	71860	71187	123
BAKKEN	3-2023	31	10781	10761	11665	73424	70789	2627
BAKKEN	2-2023	28	11727	11780	12289	53849	50337	3507
BAKKEN	1-2023	31	18816	18771	18578	95299	93570	623
BAKKEN	12-2022	29	22699	22752	42592	82978	79606	3362
BAKKEN	11-2022	19	11598	11584	8873	29032	26486	1872
BAKKEN	10-2022	31	31323	31231	22209	86154	78868	6139
BAKKEN	9-2022	30	30973	31034	20766	72227	68267	2838
BAKKEN	8-2022	31	29384	29393	119	65889	61434	3348
BAKKEN	7-2022	31	28026	28040	20421	59028	55154	2822
BAKKEN	6-2022	30	29711	29745	23153	53600	50173	2284
BAKKEN	5-2022	31	35831	36287	6569	65457	60959	3180
BAKKEN	4-2022	24	24923	24457	42635	52046	47914	3081
BAKKEN	3-2022	31	606	435	5010	1499	1211	64

An Old Enerplus Softshell Well Trending Toward One Million Bbls Cumulative Oil -- Drilled Back In 2014 -- September 11, 2023

Locator: 45608B.

This well is tracked elsewhere.

• 27587, 2,188, Enerplus, Softshell 152-94-33C-28H TF, Antelope, Sanish, t11/14; cum 839K 4/21; incredibly good well with multiple bumps in production; off line 6/19; remains off line 8/19; back on line 7/10 but weird production; only reporting one day but production is obviously a full month; cum 900K 12/22; cum 916K 7/23; recent production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
SANISH	7-2023	31	1997	2016	630	4619	4375	59
SANISH	6-2023	30	2013	2047	635	4744	4524	71
SANISH	5-2023	31	2095	2369	1110	4909	4616	85
SANISH	4-2023	30	2515	2649	1031	5508	4677	659
SANISH	3-2023	31	3144	3099	1573	7753	7274	333
SANISH	2-2023	24	2476	2535	1276	5625	4829	674
SANISH	1-2023	20	1780	1575	581	4662	4549	30
SANISH	12-2022	30	1746	1810	1062	6138	5881	172
SANISH	11-2022	30	2872	3028	1080	4487	3439	826

Could These Enerplus PNC Wells Yet Be Drilled? September 11, 2023

Locator: 45607B. 

These wells are tracked elsewhere.

Current 10-well pad:

• 36987, drl/drl-->drl/TASC-->drl/A, Bass....25H, t--; cum 240K 7/23;
  
• 36988, drl/drl-->drl/TASC-->F/A, Bluegill...25H-TF, t--; cum 200K 7/23;
  
• 36989, drl/drl-->drl/TASC-->drl/A, Shad....25H, t--; cum 244K 7/23;
  
• 36990, drl/drl-->loc/TASC-->F/A, Moray....25H-TF, t--; cum 207K 7/23;
  
• 36991, drl/drl-->drl/TASC-->drl/IA, Minnow....25H, t--; cum 289K 7/23;
  
• 21754, 654, Enerplus, Grouper 149-94-36D-25H, Squaw Creek, t7/12; cum 337K 2/22; off line;  back on line; cum 370K 7/23; halo effect -- short-lived;
  
• 36992, PNC, Steelhead....25H-TF,
• 36342, PNC, Gnu....10H-TF-LL,
• 36343, PNC, Addax....10H-TF,
• 36344, PNC, Camel....10H,
• 36345, PNC, Genet....10H-TF, 850 FNL 826 FWL

Note the "PNC" wells above. The "map" suggests they may still be drilled.

Monday, Monday -- September 11, 2023

Locator: 45606TECH.

Qualcomm: speaks volumes about shortage of chips. Link here. [Later: jumps 4% today.]

Dollar club: no longer. Prices have doubled. Now it's the two-dollar club.

I remember when Harry's Shave Club -- or whatever it was called -- sold high-end blades for $1, shipped free to one's house? It's been at least a year now or so that the blades have doubled in price to $2. I was reminded of that when I heard a Harry commercial still griping about the high cost of blades. So, fact check.

• Harry: 

• Amazon:

Tesla: now a Buy, up from Hold, over at Morgan Stanley. Link here.

Size matters: the iPhone Mini -- one of Apple's most popular phones may be discontinued. We will know tomorrow. Link here.

Before Apple, I had a Nokia flip phone -- which I really enjoyed. When I switched to an iPhone years ago, I looked for the smallest and always bought the smallest -- easier to keep in my pocket. But I recently bought the new iPhone SE, slightly bigger (?) and I love it. Interestingly, I am starting to find that I do prefer a bigger screen. I often take my large-screen iPad to sporting events because the camera / video is so much better. 

I don't think the mini will be missed.

Apple will see bigger margins on bigger phones.

Rumors: the new iPhone 15 will be $100 more expensive. Analysts will be upset but sales won't be hhurt by the higher price -- if nothing else, the higher price gives retailers like Walmart and Amazon an opportunity to sell them at a lower price, spurring sales.

Costco: link here. Note date of article. Probably not much change(d) over the years.

• balsamic vinegar
• olive oil
• bacon
• eggs
• maple syrup
• butter
• saffron
• quinoa
• Virginia peanuts
• peppercorn

Buc-ee's: just in time for Halloween.

Six Wells Coming Off Confidential List Over Weekend -- September 11, 2023

Locator: 45605B.

 Focus on Fracking: link here.

• oil price hits 10 month high; 
• US commercial oil supplies​ and gasoline supplies both at ​nine month low​s; 
• total domestic oil supplies, including SPR, at a ​new 38 year low​

WTI: $87.02.

Monday, September 11, 2023: 77 for the month; 279 for the quarter, 524 for the year
None.

Sunday, September 10, 2023: 77 for the month; 279 for the quarter, 524 for the year
39673, conf, Hydra Services, SWD,
39030, conf, Liberty Resources, Temple 159-96-36-25-3MBH,

Saturday, September 9, 2023: 75 for the month; 277 for the quarter, 522 for the year
39067, conf, Hess, TI-Fossaa-158-94-1819H-2,
38901, conf, Whiting, Snowshoe Federal 31-30-2H,
38899, conf, Whiting, Snowshoe Federal 31-30-4H,
37927, conf, BR, Parrish 2C MBH,

RBN Energy: E&Ps assume debt to sustain shareholder return as cash flow falls.

What a difference a year makes! The summer of 2022 was a golden age for U.S. E&Ps that embraced a dramatic shift in their business model from prioritizing growth to a focus on maximizing cash flows and emphasizing shareholder returns. Oil prices over $90/bbl and gas prices hovering about $7/MMBtu filled their coffers and funded lavish increases in share repurchases and dividends. But those golden days quickly faded as oil prices retreated and gas prices plunged 66% to just above $2/MMBtu. In today’s RBN blog, we explain how E&Ps are scrambling to sustain shareholder return programs in the face of shrinking cash flow.