Quick: on the Richter scale, how "low" can earthquakes go?
When I first started reading about these pauses in fracking due to seismic events, I was confused, and wrong to some degree with regard to fracking and earthquakes.
I now feel that I understand the issue a whole lot better after reading the articles at the links above.
The Canadian Ghost Town That Tesla Is Bringing Back to Life
Renewed demand for cobalt, the metal, is breathing new life into Cobalt, the town.Ironically, Cobalt, Ontario—population 1,100—was built on silver.
If you can't get to the story due to a paywall, here's another story from CBC News:
There's an old school gold rush underway in northern Ontario, but the
demand is for a special metal that is used in everything from smart
phones to electric cars.
More than a dozen mining companies are staking out claims in Cobalt,
Ont. as price of the mineral with the same name rises, according to the
Northern Prospectors Association.
"The whole situation is a cobalt-style rush, just like an old
fashioned staking rush," said Gino Chitaroni, president of the Northern
Prospectors Association and a geologist from the area.
The town of Cobalt is located along the Quebec border, near
Temiskaming Shores in northern Ontario, and is best known for the
massive amounts of silver that were extracted a century ago.
Original Post
Wow, I can't believe this! I had a post on "cobalt" in draft for several months. I finally deleted it last night because not much seemed to be happening. Then this, in today's WSJ: why investors are amassing cobalt.
Every few months, Robert Mitchell travels from his office near Portland, Ore., to a Connecticut warehouse and checks in on his biggest investment.
Mr. Mitchell’s fund owns millions of dollars worth of cobalt. He is so confident that its use in electric-car batteries will cause demand to surge that he has been buying and storing more than a thousand metric tons of the stuff—worth more than $56 million at current prices.
He feels he has little choice but to hold physical metal, since acquiring a cobalt position in financial markets is so hard.
“There’s a lot of money looking for a home in cobalt,” Mr. Mitchell said. “They really don’t have a great way to play it.”
Cobalt has long been a component in tires, magnets and smartphones. Now, it is the latest material, along with lithium and copper, to benefit from its use in the lithium ion-batteries that power electric vehicles.
Slightly more than half of all cobalt bought or sold last year went toward rechargeable batteries, up from 20% in 2006, according to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence.
Battery manufacturers’ soaring demand for the hard, silvery metal has propelled cobalt’s value to its highest level since 2008. Prices are up 70% this year through Wednesday to $56,500 a metric ton, making it the top-performing commodity traded on a major futures exchange.
In The Wall Street Journal today: Oklahoma Quakes Decline Amid Curbs on Energy Industry’s Disposal Wells. Drop attributed to restrictions on oil and gas companies’ pumping of wastewater from underground operations.
The number of earthquakes in Oklahoma has fallen 25% in 2016 compared
with a year earlier, a decline attributed in part to actions by state
regulators to police the oil and gas industry’s practice
of pumping wastewater from its operations deep underground.
The
Oklahoma Corporation Commission, which oversees the state’s oil and gas
industry, earlier this year stepped up efforts to get companies to
reduce the amount of wastewater they inject into hundreds of disposal
wells, which have been blamed for a surge in earthquake activity in the
state over the past decade.
More than 2,700 temblors of magnitude
2.5 or higher occurred in Oklahoma last year, up from 3 in 2005,
according to data from the U.S. Geological Survey. So far this year,
Oklahoma has had 1,098 quakes of that magnitude—strong enough to be felt
by humans— down from about 1,400 over the same period in 2015.
It's a fine distinction, but an important distinction, it's not fracking per se that has been associated with earthquakes. It is the disposal of "salt water" that is associated with earthquakes.
More than five years after Oklahoma first saw a startling spike in
earthquakes linked to the disposal of huge volumes of wastewater created
by hydraulic fracturing for oil, the state continues to shake at an
unprecedented rate and the number of strong quakes is increasing. In
2009, there were 20 quakes of magnitude 3.0 or higher, according to the
United States Geological Survey. Last year, there were 890. In 2009, no
quake measured 4.0 or greater. Last year, 30 did.
Now, however, after quakes have shaken the homes of some top elected
officials — and those of the worried constituents who vote for them —
the state is taking new steps to address the problem, even as critics
say it is too little, too late.
Last month, the Oklahoma
Corporation Commission, the agency that regulates the oil and gas
industry, asked oil producers operating in the northwest part of the
state to reduce the amount of wastewater they are disposing of deep
underground by 40%.
Scientists say natural faults in the area are
being stirred by billions of gallons of water injected deep into the
ground after it is used for hydraulic fracturing, commonly known as
fracking. Water and chemicals are used to break oil and gas free from
rock formations. A large amount of the water returns to the surface and,
under federal law, must be disposed of in a way that does not affect
freshwater supplies.
On Feb. 13, a quake northwest of Fairview, about two hours away,
registered a magnitude of 5.1, making it the third-strongest quake in
the state's recorded history. The strongest was in 2011. The
second-strongest was in 1952; and scientists now say it, too, may have
been induced by nearby oil production.
Since January 1 of 2016 until February 19 Oklahoma has recorded 339 earthquakes of magnitude 2.5 or greater.
Through the same period last year the state had recorded 389 quakes.
This
year, seven earthquakes of 4.0 magnitude or greater have occurred in
the state.
Through the same time last year, four earthquakes of
magnitude 4.0 occurred.
The strongest earthquake this year was a 5.1 that occurred February 13 in northern Oklahoma.
Original Post
Sierra Club files suit against several oil and gas companies in Oklahoma regarding salt water disposal wells in light of recent tectonic activity. Notably Continental Resources was not named in this suit nor in an earlier suit filed by two homeowners in Guthrie or Choctaw. It is possible CLR was named but it was not mentioned or I missed it.
I did not see the new fields in Oklahoma on my trip to the Bakken, but driving through the legacy fields along I-35 really demonstrates why the Bakken is the Bakken. Without seeing it firsthand, it is impossible to adequately describe the inconsequential (by comparison) the singleton donkey heads along I-35 in southern Oklahoma with the giant (by comparison) pumping units on multi-well pads in the Bakken. Vern Whitten has done an incredible job documenting the history of the Bakken. One can google Vern Whitten on the blog to see what I mean.
**************************
Cashless
While traveling I am able to watch cable television (which I don't have at home except for the four basic networks). I happened to catch a segment on "negative rates" on CNBC. The "expert" suggested that "negative rates" would lead to a cashless society. I was unable to connect the dots.
The paper makes a compelling case for stopping the issuance of high denomination notes like the 500 euro note and $100 bill or even withdrawing them from circulation.
I remember that when the euro was being designed in the late 1990s, I argued with my European G7 colleagues that skirmishing over seigniorage by issuing a 500 euro note was highly irresponsible and mostly would be a boon to corruption and crime. Since the crime and corruption in significant part would happen outside European borders, I suggested that, to paraphrase John Connally, it was their currency, but would be everyone’s problem. And I made clear that in the context of an international agreement, the U.S. would consider policy regarding the $100 bill. But because the Germans were committed to having a high denomination note, the issue was never seriously debated in international forums.
The fact that — as Sands points out — in certain circles the 500 euro note is known as the “Bin Laden” confirms the arguments against it. Sands’ extensive analysis is totally convincing on the linkage between high denomination notes and crime. He is surely right that illicit activities are facilitated when a million dollars weighs 2.2 pounds as with the 500 euro note rather than more than 50 pounds as would be the case if the $20 bill was the high denomination note. And he is equally correct in arguing that technology is obviating whatever need there may ever have been for high denomination notes in legal commerce.
What should happen next? I’d guess the idea of removing existing notes is a step too far. But a moratorium on printing new high denomination notes would make the world a better place. In terms of unilateral steps, the most important actor by far is the European Union. The €500 is almost six times as valuable as the $100. Some actors in Europe, notably the European Commission, have shown sympathy for the idea and European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi has shown interest as well. If Europe moved, pressure could likely be brought on others, notably Switzerland.
With regard to the earlier question, how negative rates relate to a cashless society, Business Insider provides this article from last autumn: People are hiding cash in their microwaves as Sweden gets closer to being the first cashless society with negative interest rates.
Sweden is shaping up to be the first country to plunge its citizens into a fascinating — and terrifying — economic experiment: negative interest rates in a cashless society.
The Swedish central bank, the Sveriges Riksbank, on Wednesday held its benchmark interest rate at -0.35%, the level it has been at since July.
Though retail banks have yet to pass that negative rate on to Swedish consumers, they face increased pressure to do so as long as the rates remain where they are. That's a problem, because Sweden is the closest country on the planet to becoming an all-electronic cashless society.
Remember, Sweden is the place where, if you use too much cash, banks call the police because they think you might be a terrorist or a criminal. Swedish banks have started removing cash ATMs from rural areas, annoying old people and farmers. Credit Suisse says the rule of thumb in Scandinavia is: "If you have to pay in cash, something is wrong."
The dots are still hard to connect (counterintuitive, might be a better word) but I think I understand what the "expert" on CNBC was suggesting.
Near the end of the linked article:
So two trends are converging on Sweden at the same time:
Sweden is using less and less cash.
Sweden is an environment of negative interest rates.
And that means many Swedes have no way to "hide" their money.
So Sweden may become the first country whose citizens may have to accept negative interest rates (probably in the form of higher bank charges or fees) or be forced to spend their money to "save" it from those rates.
A resistance is forming, and some people are protesting the impending extinction of cash.
Events are moving very quickly in the world of money and
banking. One tectonic shift that is being reported on in the alternative
media, but very conveniently ignored by the mainstream media is the
link between the elimination of cash and negative interest rates.
Introducing these two conditions into our economy will bring crushing
financial hardship onto the ordinary citizen – yet few understand the
critical link between the two.
February 18, 2016: an op-ed in The Wall Street Journal. I finally understand how negative rates will lead to a cashless society. But it requires a few more steps, including the end of large paper bills (currency) such as the US $100 bill and the EU's 500 Euro bill.
The real reason the war on cash is gearing up now is political:
Politicians and central bankers fear that holders of currency could
undermine their brave new monetary world of negative interest rates.
Japan and Europe are already deep into negative territory, and U.S.
Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen
said last week the U.S. should be prepared for the possibility.
Translation: That’s where the Fed is going in the next recession.
Negative
rates are a tax on deposits with banks, with the goal of prodding
depositors to remove their cash and spend it to increase economic
demand. But that goal will be undermined if citizens hoard cash. And
hoarding cash is easier if you can take your deposits out in
large-denomination bills you can stick in a safe. It’s harder to keep
cash if you can only hold small bills.
So, presto, ban cash. This theme has been pushed by the likes of Bank of England chief economist Andrew Haldane and Harvard’s Kenneth Rogoff,
who wrote in the Financial Times that eliminating paper currency would
be “by far the simplest” way to “get around” the zero interest-rate
bound “that has handcuffed central banks since the financial crisis.” If
the benighted peasants won’t spend on their own, well, make it that
much harder for them to save money even in their own mattresses.
Oklahomans don’t blink when they hear warnings about tornadoes, drought
or ice-storms. Earthquakes, however, catch their attention.
Increasingly tied to tremors shaking the west, fracking for natural
gas is creating alarm and division around western states that until
recently enjoyed a boom in jobs and revenue.
In Oklahoma,
seismologists have warned that significant temblors last week could
signal a larger, more dangerous earthquake to come in a state where
drilling is destabilizing the bedrock.
Last Wednesday night two earthquakes, measuring 4.7 and 4.8 on the Richter scale, struck
rural northern Oklahoma, beneath a major oil and gas producing area.
The state historically experiences two shakes a year registering above
level three.
That's probably a bit of hyperbole that "Oklahomans don’t blink when they hear warnings about tornadoes, drought
or ice-storms" but the Oklahoma oil and gas industry has cause to worry. There is a bit of irony in that fracking itself is not associated with earthquakes, but rather the disposal of all that waste water in deep salt-water disposal wells.
This seems to be a fair and balanced look at salt water disposal wells and earthquakes, over at Rigzone. The article is all very good so it does not work to provide small snippets. The article has been archived.
Just this small bit:
Studies released this year have highlighted the likely link between
oil and gas wastewater injection and earthquakes. In April 2015,
Southern Methodist University released a study reporting that a string
of earthquakes near Azle, Texas were likely caused by high volumes of
wastewater injection combined with saltwater extraction from natural gas
wells. And a study published in the June 2015 issue of Science Magazine
found that high-rate injection wells in the U.S. Midcontinent, or wells
injected with more than 300,000 barrels of wastewater a month, are much
more likely to be associated with earthquakes than lower-rate wells.
Although
only a very small fraction of injection and extraction activities at
hundreds of thousands of energy development sites in the United States
have induced seismicity at levels that are noticeable to the public,
seismic events caused by or likely related to energy development have
been measured and felt in Alabama, Arkansas, California, Colorado,
Illinois, Louisiana, Mississippi, Nebraska, Nevada, New Mexico, Ohio,
Oklahoma and Texas, according to a 2013 National Academies Press (NAM)
report.
Parts of North Texas just experienced the most powerful earthquake so far to rumble through this part of the world: a 4.0-magnitude temblor in Venus,
just south of Mansfield and west of Midlothian. According to the U.S.
Geological Survey — and countless reports on Twitter and via email — it
occurred at 5:58 p.m.
No surprise: The USGS confirms that’s the largest quake to strike
North Texas. And, it was a shallow temblor, occurring about two miles
deep. The most recent quake reported in that part of Johnson County was a
3.4M in November. Dallas and Irving haven’t experience a quake larger
than 3.6M, which occurred during a day of shaking in early January.
The largest quake ever recorded in Texas occurred in 1931 — a 5.8M near Valentine in far West Texas. There was a 5.7M near Alpine in 1995, and a 4.1M in far East Texas in 2013.
Venus, TX, is about 40 miles south of us, on the southeast side of Ft Worth.
Nope, I did not feel it. I was watching the youngest granddaughter.
Over the next few days, there will be a lot of stories about the earthquakes in Oklahoma. Actually, the first story will be written and then it will simply become a meme and will be reprinted ad nauseum in newspapers across the country.
No one will take the time to look at the underlying geology. I mention it in passing, tongue-in-cheek, earlier this month. A reader provided a great link which provides much more information. When you go to the site, note the difference between Oklahoma and Texas / North Dakota when it comes to the geology.
And, oh by the way, it's not the fracking -- it's the injection of the waste water that comes back up after the fracking. This, too, can be solved. But regardless, it's not an issue for the Bakken. And probably not for the Permian. There will, however, be some stories of induced earthquakes in the DFW area this week.
Expanded oil and gas operations in the central and eastern United States
have triggered earthquakes as large as magnitude 5.7, as drillers
inject wastewater back into the ground. But seismologists now report a
bit of good news: such 'induced' quakes appear to shake the ground less
than a naturally occurring earthquake of the same magnitude would.
That is good news because less shaking means less damage. “Maybe
induced earthquakes aren’t quite as fearsome as they may seem,” says
Susan Hough, a seismologist at the US Geological Survey (USGS) in
Pasadena, California, whose work is published in the Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America.
“The hazard from induced quakes is going to be down a notch relative to tectonic quakes.”
But
the observation holds only for areas more than 10 kilometres from the
earthquake’s epicentre. Anyone close to the drilling would still feel as
much shaking as a natural quake would bring. “This might lead to a
recommendation that deep injection wells should be kept 10 kilometres
away from population centres,” says Hough.
And ten kilometres from the New York State border. No doubt.
In 1999, the feverish rise in
Earth's surface temperatures suddenly slowed, even as greenhouse gas
emissions escalated. This unexpected slowdown has been called a global
warming hiatus or global warming pause.
Most climate scientists don't think this hiatus means global warming
went kaput, but the reason (or reasons) for the slowdown has scientists
flummoxed. Researchers have offered more than two dozen ideas to explain
the missing heat.
Now, a
study published today (Aug. 21) in the journal Science suggests a
natural climate cycle in the North Atlantic Ocean gobbled Earth's extra
heat. While the study is unlikely to settle the scientific debate, it
does support the idea that Earth's global warming continues in the
ocean, even when air temperatures stay flat.
I'm going to have to put thermometers in the ocean now, along with my popsicle sticks with millimeter hash marks. Does this mean the oceans are still rising? Warm oceans, and yet sea ice is expanding, setting new records in the Antarctic? Hard for all this to be reconciled. If nothing else, a new avenue for research grants. I think a good spot to do this research is off the big island of Hawaii. Just saying.
I can't find the post now, but NDIC noted a study of water injection (water disposal) and earthquakes, found a likely cause and explanation, and took steps to prevent this problem.
About
half a million earthquakes are thought to occur around the world
annually. However, the majority of earthquakes are too small to be
perceptible; only about one in five earthquakes can be felt, and the
rest can be detected only by sensitive instruments.
In the United
States, there are recognized areas along fault lines where earthquakes
occur with some frequency. There are also areas, such as the state of
Texas, where earthquakes large enough to be perceptible are relatively
rare.
The link between fracking and earthquakes is indirect.
The most common
method of fracking in use today typically involves the use of a mixture
made of sand, chemicals and water that is injected at high pressure into
the surrounding rock. The amount of water used can vary with each well,
but a typical well in the Eagle Ford might use 7 million gallons of
water, according to the Texas Water Development Board.
When a well has been hydraulically fractured, about 20 percent of the
water used returns to the surface, according to the Ohio Department of
Natural Resources. This water, which is called flowback or produced
water, must be disposed of.
It is the process of injecting this water
into the underground storage wells, and not the actual fracking of the
well, that is most often linked to earthquakes.
SM Energy will report after the market closes today. Valero Energy beats by 16 cents. Reports earnings of $0.57 per share, $0.16 better than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $0.41; revenues rose 4.1% year/year to $36.14 bln vs the $31.02 bln consensus.
The
decrease in operating income was due to lower refining throughput
margins caused by lower gasoline and diesel margins as well as lower
light sweet and sour crude oil discounts. Also contributing to the
decline in operating income were higher costs for Renewable
Identification Numbers to comply with the U.S. federal Renewable Fuel
Standard. Strong performance in the ethanol business partially offset
the decline in operating income. -- Yahoo!In-Play
Apple Inc: Apple's net profit drops but earnings beat forecasts. Apple's (AAPL) FQ4 net profit fell to $7.5B from $8.2B a year earlier, although revenue rose 4% to $37.5B and beat consensus, as did EPS of $8.26. iPhone volumes rose sharply following the introduction of new models in September, although iPad shipments were flat and those for the Mac fell. On the earnings call, Apple CEO Tim Cook said the company will announce any changes to its capital allocation early next year. The comments come as Carl Icahn clamors for a new $150B buyback. Shares were +0.2% premarket after slipping late yesterday. -- SeekingAlpha, October 29, 2013; earnings transcript;
BP's profit falls 26% but shares jump 5%. BP's (BP) shares gushed 5% higher in premarket trading after Q3 underlying replacement profit dropped to $3.7B from $5B a year earlier but exceeded forecasts of $3.4B. BP raised its dividend by 5.6% to 9.5 cents a share, and said it intends to sell another $10B in assets within two years and use the money for payouts to shareholders. -- same link as above, SeekingAlpha, October 29, 2013
COP must be doing something right. Most oil companies have been in a trading range the last few days, most slightly negative, but COP keeps hitting new highs. At one time Warren Buffett owned a huge amount of COP but I've long lost the bubble with regard to how much, if any, he still holds.
Something tells me we won't be seeing this story again -- it will be conveniently ignored by activist environmentalists....but facts are facts, and geothermal renewable energy projects in southern California are causing small earthquakes along the San Andreas fault.
Some worry that these small tremors could set off the BIG ONE.
And "they" can't have it both ways: if geothermal brine injection is KNOWN to cause earthquakes along the San Andreas fault, the argument that fracking MIGHT caught cause micro-tremors is taken off the table. One can't have it both ways.
The geothermal power plants at Southern California's Salton Sea don't
just produce electricity, they also trigger thousands of temblors not
far from one of the West Coast's most dangerous earthquake faults, a new
study says.
Research published online Thursday in the journal Science
found that as production rose at the Imperial County geothermal field,
so did the number of earthquakes. From 1981 through 2012, more than
10,000 earthquakes above magnitude 1.75 were recorded in the area.
"That group of earthquakes …. is connected to the production," said
Emily Brodsky, a UC Santa Cruz geophysicist and the paper's lead author.
US Santa Cruz is one of the more avant garde universities in the UC system. We probably won't hear from Emily again, any time soon. Smile.
But there you have it.
The largest quake during the three-decade study period was magnitude
5.1. The vast majority of quakes were small. But they are occurring
about 12 miles from the southern end of the San Andreas fault, which
seismologists predict will eventually rock the Southland with a
devastating temblor.
Researchers wonder if the many small quakes could trigger larger ones on the nearby fault.
And, folks have known this "for decades."
Geothermal power production began in the Salton Sea field, on the
sea's southeastern edge, in 1982 and includes one of the largest and
hottest geothermal wells in the world. Plants extract superheated water
from thousands of feet beneath the Earth's surface and use it to produce
steam that drives turbines to generate electricity. The remaining brine
is then injected back into the ground.
It has been known for decades that injecting fluids into the Earth
can lead to seismic activity. Previous studies have also linked
earthquakes to geothermal production.
New research has found that hydraulic fracturing (fracking) is "not
significant" in causing earth tremors. Released Wednesday by the UK's
Durham University, the results of a study of hundreds of thousands of
fracking operations showed that the process only caused earth tremors
that could be felt on the surface in three cases.
The research, titled Induced Seismicity and the Hydraulic Fracturing
of Low Permeability Sedimentary Rocks, found that almost all of the
resultant seismic activity was on such a small scale that only
geoscientists would be able to detect it. It also discovered that the
size and number of tremors is low compared to other manmade triggers
such as mining, geothermal activity or reservoir water storage.
And if you can't believe the Brits, who can you believe?
Can one quantify the amount of energy released?
"By comparison, most fracking-related events release a negligible amount
of energy roughly equivalent to or even less than someone jumping off a
ladder onto the floor. Of the three fracking-related quakes that could
be felt, even the largest ever, in the Horn River Basin in Canada in
2011 had a magnitude of only 3.8. That is at the lower end of the range
that could be felt by people. The widely-reported quake at Preese Hall
near Blackpool in 2011 had a magnitude of 2.3."
For archival purposes only: a small earthquake was felt by residents in New Jersey "in the wake of Sandy."
Unless I missed it, the article failed to mention that the earthquake was probably not due to fracking.
Hydraulic fracturing has a low risk for inducing earthquakes that
can be felt by people but underground injection of wastewater produced
by fracing and other energy technologies has a higher risk of causing
earthquakes ....
Others may see some irony in this part of the report:
Carbon capture and storage may have the potential for inducing
seismic events because significant volumes of fluids are injected
underground over long periods of time ...
So, here's the irony: "greens" are against fracking and there seems to be minimal evidence that fracking is related to earthquake activity; "greens" are for carbon capture and there is some suggestion that carbon capture may be related to earthquakes. Personally, I'm not worried about either. There is some evidence that nano/micro-earthquakes might be beneficial in preventing major earthquakes.