Earnings -- Anticipation -- January 25, 2021

Earnings, Tuesday, January 26, 2021:

• Microsoft -- yet to report; breaking out;
  
• JNJ -- beats; continues breakout in pre-market trading;
  
• Starbucks -- yet to report; may be best bellwether regarding economy;
  
• GE -- this tells me the "world" is nuts; LOL; misses estimates; on guidance only, shares up 10%
  

Earnings, Wednesday, January 27, 2021:

• Apple
• Tesla
• Facebook
• T (ATT)
• Boeing
• Saudi Basic Industries Corp
• Edward Lifesciences Corp
• Canadian Pacific Railway

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

At $3,000 / Acre, Enerplus Agrees To Acquire Bruin -- January 25, 2021

Bakken operators are tracked here. 

From twitter:

From SeekingAlpha:

• Enerplus agrees to acquire privately-held Williston Basin oil and gas producer Bruin E&P Holdco for $465M. 
• Enerplus says it will fund the deal with a new $400M term loan and a concurrent $115M bought deal equity financing; the company will not assume any Bruin debt as part of the deal. 
• Bruin’s properties are located in North Dakota with significant production and development inventory concentrated in the Fort Berthold area near Enerplus' primary property. 
• Additionally, Enerplus says Q4 production came in at the higher end of guidance, with total output of 86.2K boe/day, including liquids production of 49.2K bbl/day. 
• For 2021, Enerplus expects to deliver production of 103.5K-108.5K boe/day, including 63K-67K bbl/day of liquids, with capital spending of $335M-$385M. 
• The value of Enerplus' Bakken assets "may be diminished depending on what happens with federal oil and gas regulations and the Dakota Access Pipeline," Elephant Analytics writes in an analysis posted on Seeking Alpha.

From a press release:

Acquiring 151,000 net acres in the Williston Basin, including 30,000 net acres contiguous with Enerplus' tier 1 acreage position. The acquisition includes approximately 24,000 BOE per day of existing production, 84 MMBOE of proved plus probable reserves^,  and an inventory of 149 (111 net) drilling locations (including drilled uncompleted wells). 

After the acquisition, Enerplus estimates it will hold more than a decade of drilling inventory capable of sustaining production at 2021 levels, with additional drilling inventory upside on Bruin's acreage if commodity prices strengthen.

With Biden as president, Enerplus may have several decades of drilling inventory.

Back-of-the-envelope: $465 million / 151,000 net acres = $3,000 / acre. 

A New Record Set In Joe Biden's First Full Week As CEO/CIC; Hess Has One New Permit -- January 25, 2021

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

Records: the NASDAQ and the Russell 2000 set record intraday highs. Whoo-hoo!

I guess history of the event will simply fade away. Link here. 

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$52.77	1/25/2021	01/25/2020	01/25/2019	01/25/2018	01/25/2017
Active Rigs	12	56	65	56	38

One new permit, #38090:

• Operator: Hess
• Field: Dollar Joe (Williams County)
• Comments: Hess has a permit for a GO-Braaten section line well in SESW 21-156-97; 
• 350' FSL and 1503' FWL

One producing well (a DUC) reported as completed:

• 37202, x, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Jean 10-9-4-157N-99W-LL TFH, Lone Tree Lake,

One permit canceled:

• EOG: a Liberty LR permit in Mountrail County;

Four permits renewed:

• Whiting: a Kaldahl permit, a G Bergstrom permit, a Roggenbuck, a Helling permit; the first two in Williams County; the third one in Mountrail County, and the fourth one listed in McKenzie County;

Chinatown: "Stay-At-Home" Order Just Lifted -- January 25, 2021

It has just been announced that California has just lifted its "stay-at-home" order.

It was also announced earlier today that the effort to recall governor Newsom has reached another milestone. This announcement came just hours before the "stay-at-home" order was lifted.

With regard to Covid-19 and herd immunity, New York has a huge problem. Whereas North and South Dakota lead the nation in Covid-19 penetration at nearly 13%, New York, below the US average of 7.7%, stands at 7%.

Look here, not there! What a joke. CNBC sent one of their anchors all the way to Florida to report on "vaccine tourism." Apparently folks are driving from across the country to get in line to get their vaccine. We're talking RVs worth hundreds of thousands of dollars, occupied by one or two seniors. Big deal. Yet, CNBC conveniently ignores the issue of thousands of people in convoys moving to our southern border now that Biden has promised them a pathway to citizenship. On the one hand, one or two dozen Americans simply trying be vaccinated vs thousands of immigrants from the south planning to cross our borders illegally. And which story gets the coverage? LOL. 

GameStop:

The market today: let's say you are ninety years old. You are really bored; your days of making deals are over." Currency trading" is so yesterday. Things are moving too slowly. You have $2 billion to play with. This leads me to this question: has an individual figured out another way to play this market and have fun while doing it? I think of my dad when he was 90 years old and trading in the market. LOL. Has "international organized crime" figured out how to make huge amounts of money and at the same time disrupt the US economy? Just asking for a friend. 

On another note, it turns out that the Biden call for a minimum wage of $15/hour is a bit of "fake news." More on that later, if I remember, but I'm done blogging for awhile. Sophia is on her way over for "school."

Homeschooling:

PSX: January 25, 2021

The Dow is down almost 400 points. I wonder why? The ten-year Treasury is at 1.04%, down five basis points. I do know that more and more stories are coming out that America is now closed for business. China is now the favorite country in which large companies are investing. Perhaps that's one of the reasons the Dow is now down almost 400 points. After being up as much as  $5.00/share, AAPL has now turned negative. But I digress. 

Following the story on twitter and the volatility of the stock market today suggests the SEC has a huge problem. The NFL had its problem: kneeling. The NBA had its problem: BLM. Now, the SEC has its problem: Robinhood and Reddit traders which appear to be playing outside the sidelines. A video replay should show sneakers on the chalk.

A heavy federal tax on all "trades," but particularly on options trading, would help put a stop to all this. Until then, hang on. Fasten your seat belts.

I'm staying away from energy stocks when it comes to investing. I am starting no new positions in energy. I sold most of my energy positions this past year and now have only a few "legacy" positions that I will never sell. They will go to the grandchildren. To the best of my knowledge I do not own shares in any pure-place Bakken oil company. I think I still hold EOG but haven't checked in a long time. I generally only check when I am thinking about buying or selling something. Otherwise, why would I care?

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

However, tracking energy companies at investment sites provides some insight for me with regard to where the oil and gas industry is headed. 

So, this is not an endorsement one way or the other (see disclaimer), it's simply something of interest and something to do while waiting for Sophia to come over for "school." 

By the way, remember when we were all four or five or six or seven years old and we all played "school" at home with our younger sibs? LOL. Now we're doing it for real. Who knew?

From SeekingAlpha and Mike Fitzsimmons: Phllips 66 -- your #1 reopening energy stock pick.

Summary:

• One year ago today, PSX was trading at over $100/share and the outlook for dividend growth was excellent.
• Then came the pandemic, the resultant drastic demand destruction for refined products like gasoline and jet-fuel. That drastically destructed PSX's stock price too.
• Friday, PSX closed at $72.55. The $3.60/share annual dividend equates to a very attractive 4.9% yield in a near zero-rate environment.
• Certainly, there are still some serious pandemic risks and challenges, but I will make the case that now is the time to buy Phillips 66.
• I predict PSX will pop strongly the day JNJ announces it has received an EUA for its one-shot COVID-19 vaccine and can ramp up to 100 million doses by March.

As a reminder:

The market:

• legacy industries:
• value (JNJ):
• growth (QDEL)
• millennial industries:
• hyper-growth (AMZN)
• ludicrous (TSLA)
• beyond ludicrous (Bitcoin)

Amazon: Just Beginning -- January 25, 2021

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

For the past couple of days I've posted a few notes about Apple and AAPL. I think folks are missing the bigger story with regard to Apple but eventually the share price of AAPL will catch up to where it should be. 

But enough of that, today we turn to Amazon. 

Quick: when folks want to buy a product on line, where do they check first? Even if they don't buy from this site, they turn to this site for product reviews and "lowest" price out there. What site is that? It turns out that about 50% of folks planning to buy something on line, turn to Amazon first, even if they order from Amazon. 

Quick: Amazon Prime members? What percent of Amazon Prime members start with Amazon when searching for a product they plan to purchase on line? It turns out that two-thirds (67%) of Amazon Prime members always start with Amazon.

Quick: what percent of Amazon shoppers are influenced by ads? One hundred percent. 

Quick: what percent of Amazon Prime members are big spenders on line? One hundred percent. 

A reader sent me an article yesterday that advertisers are pulling out of the Super Bowl this year, and the price for an ad (30-second ad?) has dropped from $5.6 million last year to $5.5 million this year, or something like that. Or maybe it was $5.5 million to $5.4 million. Whatever, it was a half-million-dollar drop year-over-year.

Oh, sorry for the digression. 

But where do you think advertisers are headed? Yup, to Amazon. 

Note some interesting data points at this Motley Fool article. 

Search:

• Google: searches everything; relies on ads.
• Amazon: searches consumer preferences. Ads make up a small part of its bottom line.
• Apple: no proprietary search engine yet, but is there a niche for Apple and search?

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On Another Note

While "researching" this note, an Amazon advertiser targeted me with an ad for this product (yes, I'm in the market for a new power strip). 

I didn't tell anyone that I was looking for a new power strip. I did not even mention it to Alexa but somehow Amazon knew I was in the market for a new power strip, and targeted me with this ad. And I love it. I would not have found it on my own. And I very seldom get ads on social media sites where I am known that do not pertain to me. If I'm going to get ads, I prefer targeted ads. Just saying.  

This morning I spent a lot of time on Amazon and a couple of tech sites looking for various cables for iPhones, iPads, laptops. Perhaps that's how I was spotted. LOL. 

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On Another Note

Holy Mackerel It's A Nice Day In North Texas! Science Lesson For The Day -- January 25, 2021

First things first: IMF says Iraq has requested emergency assistance, talks ongoing. Data points:

• $6 billion loan package requested
• requested for "economic reforms" (LOL)
• IMF's Rapid Financing Instrument provides quick financial assistance, which is available to all member countries facing an urgent balance-of-payments need.

Now, back to science:

Chinese flu update:

• variants:
• Variant: 1.1.7 (UK)
• Variant 1.351 (South Africa)
• Variant P.1 (Brazil
• vaccine efficacy:
  
• under Trump: current vaccines won't work
• under Biden: current vaccines will work
• vaccine rollout
• under Trump: corporations did not reach out to help vaccine distribution. 
• under Biden: corporations stepping all over each other trying to be the first to help with vaccine distribution.
  

NYC: unable to open up new vaccination center; doesn't have enough vaccine. In fact, New York is near the bottom of the list among states who have used the vaccine already distributed. Does anyone remember the NY "ventilator" problem? It never quits. 

Holy mackerel it's a nice day today. Winter -- north Texas. I don't know what the temperature is outside but I've not got the heat on -- always a good sign -- and the sun is shining and it's a bright, sunny day. It's incredible. And on top of that, Tom Brady is going back to the Super Bowl. 

Hallelujah! The Google blogger app I use "fixed" a glitch over the weekend. Makes blogging a whole lot easier. Improves my efficiency by an average of 37% when updating older posts. Hallelujah!

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$52.22	1/25/2021	01/25/2020	01/25/2019	01/25/2018	01/25/2017
Active Rigs	12	56	65	56	38

Wells coming off the confidential list are tracked here. No wells are coming off confidential list today. Nor are Tuesday or Wednesday, and then just one on Thursday. 

RBN Energy: how will Biden XL's latest setback impact Canadian crude oil producers? Archived.

Sure, there was at least some hope among Keystone XL’s supporters that President Biden might back away from his promise to kill the much-maligned crude oil pipeline project. 

After all, KXL developer TC Energy had done all it could to make the 1,210-mile project more palatable to the incoming administration by making Canadian First Nation groups partners in the project, reaching a favorable labor agreement with the four U.S. unions that would build the pipeline, and, most recently, committing to invest in renewable energy to power KXL’s pumps and other equipment. 

But it wasn’t enough, and now, with Biden’s decision to revoke the project’s Presidential Permit, it appears that the Alberta-to-Nebraska pipeline is all but dead, and that Western Canada will need to get by without its 830 Mb/d of southbound capacity. The looming question now is, what does that mean for Alberta’s producers — particularly those that have signed up for more than 500 Mb/d of space on KXL? Today, we discuss what’s ahead.