Wednesday, April 22, 2020

Old MRO Well In Bailey Oil Field; Re-Fracked -- April 22, 2020

There are four wells on this MRO Reunion Bay pad. One of the four is an older well; the other three have recently been fracked/completed:

The wells:
  • 16654, 311, MRO, Buehner 34-12H, Bailey, t8/07; cum 351K 4/20; see full production here; re-fracked, 10/17/19 - 11/5/19; 7.1 million gallons of water; 88% water by mass;
  • 36735, drl/A, MRO, Ritter 34-12TFH, Bailey, t--; cum 126K over 3 months; see production below; cum 169K 4/20;
  • 36736, drl/A, MRO, Emil 24-12TFH, Bailey, t--; cum 102K over 3 months; see production below; cum 137K 4/20;
  • 36737, drl/A, MRO, Kloster 24-12H, Bailey, t--; cum 133K over 3 months; see production below; cum 192K 4/20; fracked 10/17/2019 - 11/5/2019; 7.75 million gallons of water; 88.2% water by mass;
The Parent Well: 16654 -- Hubbert's "peak oil" theory did not predict this --
  • recent production;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN2-20202927972279192970228620026754
BAKKEN1-20202724594246902963124984410019202
BAKKEN12-20193143129432715423439080595824698
BAKKEN11-2019720602201072571516561014152
BAKKEN10-20190000000
BAKKEN9-20190000000
BAKKEN8-20190000000
BAKKEN7-201900800000
BAKKEN6-201928153615487531285690418
  • production after original completion in August, 2007:
BAKKEN3-20083149204653880128412840
BAKKEN2-200824403537791358216921690
BAKKEN1-20082731353764612162216220
BAKKEN12-20073137383801808184118410
BAKKEN11-20073043193955927217821780
BAKKEN10-2007315658581613139269260
BAKKEN9-200728665665231887154615460
BAKKEN8-200718555050682097180318030

**************************************************
The Newer Wells On This Pad

  • 36735:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN2-20202927934279412644031353029489
BAKKEN1-20203130193302233231232476030544
BAKKEN12-20193042215424783990437394136432031
BAKKEN11-20191025323247142473819526016611
  • 36736:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN2-20202321882220612285124375022898
BAKKEN1-20203140215401233952939637815628691
BAKKEN12-2019244010139772484733342297528955
BAKKEN11-2019300463000
  • 36737:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN2-20202942666425903622445765042958
BAKKEN1-20202937960379883533038253312932612
BAKKEN12-20192651812513945331845907196438759
BAKKEN11-201932952886954380399
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A Look At MRO Wells That Came Off Confidential List Today -- April 22, 2020

A closer look at the three "Horn" wells in Reunion Bay that came off the confidential list today.

The wells:
  • 36339, SI/NC, MRO, Lottio Horn USA 21-2TFH, Reunion Bay, t--; cum 130K over 3 months;
  • 36499, SI/NC, MRO, Allen Horn USA 11-2H, Reunion Bay, t--; cum 151K over 3 months;
  • 36338, SI/NC, MRO, Julia Horn USA11-2TFH, Reunion Bay, t--; cum 113K over 3 months;
Older wells in the immediate area:
  • 26464, 1,857, MRO, Kimball 14-35TFH, Reunion Bay, t3/14; cum 229K 11/19; went off line 11/19; remains off line 2/20;
  • 18243, 646, MRO, Gladys USA 21-2H, Reunion Bay, t1/10; cum 390K 2/20; off line 6/19; returned to production 2/20; see below;
  • 26463, 1,169, MRO, Reed 24-35TFH, Reunion Bay, t3/14; cum 191K 2/20; not off line recently;
  • 26462, 2,224, MRO, Myers 24-35H, Reunion Bay, t3/14; cum 326K 12/19; off line as of 12/19; remains off line 2/20;
  • 26461, 1,982, MRO, Skold 24-35TFH, Reunion Bay, t3/14; cum 240K 5/19; off line as of 5/19; remains off line 2/20;
  • 21466, 2,448, MRO, William USA 21-2H, Reunion Bay, t7/13; cum 482K 2/20; off line 10/19; returned to production 1/20; see below;
  • 23209, 2,009, MRO, William USA 31-2TFH, Reunion Bay, t7/13; cum 309K 10/19; went off line 10/19; remains off line 2/20;
******************************

18243: 7,033 bbls over 19days extrapolates to11,105 bbls/30-day month:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN2-202019703369750419141710
BAKKEN1-20200000000
BAKKEN12-20190000220
BAKKEN11-20190000000
BAKKEN10-20190000000
BAKKEN9-20190000000
BAKKEN8-20190000000
BAKKEN7-20190000000
BAKKEN6-201941804063826720638
BAKKEN5-2019312343242151030212406292
BAKKEN4-201930219621514822434206559

21466: unremarkable; story yet to be told?
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN2-202024130213661689124201055
BAKKEN1-202019100185417641003101766
BAKKEN12-20190000000
BAKKEN11-2019184110202
BAKKEN10-20192629622945178727182209190
BAKKEN9-201930424040312771435827261216
BAKKEN8-201931420843123329486130241416
BAKKEN7-20193142634543563446732930131

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CLR's Chloe Wells In East Fork

****************************************
The CLR Chloe Wells And Surrounding Area

The graphics:







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CLR WIth Three New Permits; Nine DUCs Reporting "Data" Of Sorts -- April 22, 2020

Active rigs:

$14.364/22/202004/22/201904/22/201804/22/201704/22/2016
Active Rigs2962594929

Three new permits, #37530 - #37532, inclusive --
  • Operator: CLR
  • Field: East Fork (Williams)
  • Comments:
    • CLR has permits for a 3-well Chloe pad in SWSE section 20-156-99, East Fork oil field; all will be sited 325 feet from the south line; and each, 1835 feet; 1880 feet; and, 1925 feet respectively;
    • see graphics below
Correction?


Nine producing wells completed:
  • 36735, drl, MRO, Ritter 34-12TFH, t--; cum 126K over 3 months; see this post;
  • 36729, drl, CLR, Marshall 6-24H, t--; cum --;
  • 36727, drl, CLR, Marshall 8-24H, t--; cum --;
  • 35643, drl, CLR, Boise 6-24H, t--; cum --;
  • 36339, SI/NC, MRO, Lottio Horn USA 21-2TFH, t--; cum 130K over 3 months;
  • 36499, SI/NC, MRO, Allen Horn USA 11-2H, t--; cum 151K over 3 months;
  • 35677, SI/NC, CLR, Boston 9-25H1, t--; cum --
  • 36338, SI/NC, MRO, Julia Horn USA 11-2TFH, t--; cum 113K over 3 months;
  • 34848, SI/NC, CLR, Pittsburgh 5-18H1, t--; cum 49K in 1.5 months;
****************************************
The CLR Chloe Wells And Surrounding Area

The graphics:




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I Bet This Is Quite A Sight To See -- Outside Long Beach Port -- April 22, 2020

Updates

May 13, 2020:



April 29, 2020: status of the tankers.

Original Post




Stories here:


Back-of-the-envelope:
  • the US imports 500,000 bopd from Saudi Arabia; link here;  
  • 20 VLCC x 2 million bbls/VLCC - 40 million bbls of crude oil
  • 40 million bbls of crude oil per day / 500,000 bopd = 80 days
A reader commented earlier:
The Saudi's self-reported that they decreased production in March, 2020. However, the average of estimates from the IEA, the EIA, CERA, Reuters, Platts and Argus is that they increased output by 388,000 barrels per day to 10,058,000 barrels per day.
they were supposedly sending a fleet of VLCCs this way in an attempt to flood US storage (which they denied).
Recent reports have them still pumping oil and cutting prices even after last week's agreement.
The amount of storage capacity the Saudis have is probably somewhere between 100 million and 200 million bbls of oil. I think the best estimate is 160 million bbls. 
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Saudi Did Not Increase Production In March, 2020 -- Saudi Emptied Its On-Shore Storage To Flood The Market -- April 22, 2020

Update

Later, 9:40 p.m. CT: see first comment --
That's what the Saudi's reported to OPEC (the graphic below).
However, the average of estimates from the IEA, the EIA, CERA, Reuters, Platts and Argus is that Saudi Arabia increased output by 388,000 barrels per day to 10,058,000 barrels per day.
they were supposedly sending a fleet of VLCCs this way in an attempt to flood US storage (which they denied). Recent reports have them still pumping oil and cutting prices even after last week's agreement.
Original Post
 
Link here. This may have been previously posted.


... and nowhere to go.
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Legacy Fund April 2020 Deposits Posted

Link here.

April, 2020, deposits: $445,572,403.41.



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I Stand Corrected -- Bragging Rights Go To Lake City, MN -- April 22, 2020


Gas Buddy must have missed this one. Gas Buddy shows the lowest price for gasoline in Lake City, MN, at $1.19. There must be a local price war.
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Weekly Petroleum Report -- EIA -- April 22, 2020

Also: look at most recent posting over at Focus on Fracking. 

Weekly EIA petroleum report, link here.
  • US crude oil in storage: increased by another whopping 15.0 million bbls week-over-week;
  • total US crude oil in storage: 518.6 million bbls, nearly 10% above the five-year average, and the five-year average keeps getting "fatter";
  • refineries operating at 67.6% of their operable capacity;
  • even at that, gasoline production increased last week, averaging 6.2 million bpd, off from the "usual" 10 million bpd;
  • gasoline supplied is down over 40% over the past four-week period compared to last year
  • distillate production increased; holding at 5 million bpd;
  • distillate fuel supplied over the past four weeks is down about 10% from same period last year
  • US crude oil imports decreased by 700,000 bopd, week-over-week;
  • but look at this: over the four-week period, US crude oil imports have averaged about 15% less than the same period last year;
  • jet fuel down a whopping 54%; four-week period year/year comparison
Re-balancing:
Week
Week Ending
Change
Million Bbls Storage
Week 0
November 21, 2018
4.9
446.9
Week 1
November 28, 2018
3.6
450.5
Week 2
December 6, 2018
-7.3
443.2
Week 3
December 12, 2018
-1.2
442.0
Week 4
December 19, 2018
-0.5
441.5
Week 5
December 28, 2018
0.0
441.4
Week 6
January 4, 2019
0.0
441.4
Week 7
January 9, 2019
-1.7
439.7
Week 8
January 16, 2019
-2.7
437.1
Week 9
January 24, 2019
8.0
445.0
Week 68
March 18, 2020
2.0
453.7
Week 69
March 25, 2020
1.6
455.4
Week 70
April 1, 2020
13.8
469.2
Week 71
April 8, 2020
15.2
484.4
Week 72
April 15, 2020
19.2
503.6
Week 72
April 22, 2020
15.0
518.6

Jet fuel delivered:
Jet Fuel Delivered, Change, Four-Week/Four-Week


Week
Week Ending
Change
Week 0
March 11, 2020
-12.80%
Week 1
March 18, 2020
-12.60%
Week 2
March 25, 2020
-8.90%
Week 3
April 1, 2020
-16.40%
Week 4
April 8, 2020
-0.22%
Week 5
April 15, 2020
-39.70%
Week 6
April 22, 2020
-53.60%

US crude oil imports:
Crude Oil Imports



Week (week-over-week)
Week Ending
Raw Data, millions of bbls
Change (millions of bbls)
Week 0
March 11, 2029
6.4
0.174
Week 1
March 18, 2020
6.5
0.127
Week 2
March 25, 2020
6.1
-0.422
Week 3
April 1, 2020
6.0
-0.070
Week 4
April 8, 2020
5.9
-0.173
Week 5
April 15, 2020
5.7
-0.194
Week 6
April 22, 2020
5.6
-0.700
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