Locator: 49383SAUDI.
Locator: 49383CHINA.
Locator: 49383RUSSIA.Foreign exchange reserves: Russia, Saudi Arabia, China.
Russia, link here: posted October 14, 2025:
Saudi, link here: posted November 4, 2025:
China, link here, posted October 14, 2025:
Locator: 49283SAUDI.
Locator: 49283CHINA.
Locator: 49283RUSSIA.Foreign exchange reserves: Russia, Saudi Arabia, China.
Russia, link here:
Saudi, link here:
China, link here, posted October 3, 2025:
Locator: 48932SAUDI.
Locator: 48932CHINA.
Locator: 48932RUSSIA.Foreign exchange reserves: Russia, Saudi Arabia, China.
Russia, link here:
Saudi, link here:
China, link here, posted August 22, 2025:
Locator: 48781SAUDI.
Locator: 48790SAUDI.
Locator: 48790CHINA.
Locator: 48790RUSSIA.
Saudi debt: link here.
Russia, link here. June, 2025, data:
China, link here:
Locator: 48790SAUDI.
Locator: 48790CHINA.
Locator: 48790RUSSIA.
Saudi Arabia Foreign Exchange Reserves. Link here.
Russia, link here. June, 2025, data:
China, link here:
*********************
Musical Interlude
It's amazing how well this has held up over the years.
Heart of glass, Blondie.
Locator: 45064WTI.
So, after all this data was released, solar and wind don't dent fossil fuels and global economy is ready to surge post-Covid, and Saudi Arabia cuts production, and Russia almost stages a coup, and .... and .... and ... and ..
What did WTI do today:
The real stories.
Bloomberg leads with this today:
Global electrical generation by fuel, link here:
European electrical generation by fuel, link here:
Global energy consumption, link here (at the link, the screenshot only shows through 2013; click on the graphs to go out to 2022):
Renewables growth did not dent fossil fuel dominance in 2022, link here:
Oil and the Russian coup, link here:
Saudis "tightening" the screws on America, link here:
Saudi in deep doo-doo, link here:
Wind energy: read the small print. Link to Bloomberg. How charts confuse folks.
More important than demand, however, was the November supply of OPEC oil, which declined by 133.5K to below 32.5 million bbl, a fresh six month low if only 195K bbl lower than last year's output, confirming that ahead of last year's production cut agreement, OPEC furiously ramped up production effectively offsetting the subsequent output limit.Saudi Shenanigans link. The graph at this post is one of my favorite graphs; as is this one; and this one. I hope the latter is updated a year from now.
The decommissioning of a nuclear plant, if this is what this is, is a huge bullish story for natural gas.In my "Reality of Renewables" post, December 12, 2017, linked above , I mentioned that there is no way solar/wind will be able to replace all the electricity provided by nuclear plants being decommissioned.On top of that, I get the feeling that tax credits for wind/solar are going to be eliminated/significantly reduced under the new tax bill. Of course that could change. But every time I see a nuclear plant being decommissioned, I know that natural gas will benefit; even if they add a bit of wind/solar it won't be enough and natural gas peaking units will be needed.With regard to your question: I don't think there is a surplus of electricity as much as there is a mismatch between when/where electricity is needed and how it is supplied.
A team researches golden eagles, as an "eagle take" permit is necessary. The research is to be continued during construction and operation of the wind farm so as to be compared with the condition prior to construction. The $3 million research project is paid by PCW. The Bureau of Land Management estimated 40-64 eagles per year for 1.000 turbines, whereas the Fish and Wildlife Service estimates 10-16 for 500 turbines.It's amazing how they can get such a great estimate: an upper limit of 64. Why now 66 or 61 or 73for 1,000 turbines; and, for 500 turbines, why not 14 or 21 or 17 for the upper limit. Of course anything over the limit will result in an inconsequential fine, which will be passed on to consumers, regardless.
Iraqi field-level production data appears to show it has deepened crude output cuts, but methodology changes are the more likely explanation. And data from international oil firms show output from the semiautonomous Kurdistan region to be much higher than the federal government's estimate.
Baghdad is facing pressure to improve its compliance with the production deal struck between Opec and several non-Opec countries. Argus estimates Iraqi output has been 4.45mn b/d so far this year, making it just over 50pc compliant, compared with Opec's overall 101pc compliance rate. Iraq agreed to cut output by 210,000 b/d from an October 2016 baseline figure determined by secondary sources, including Argus, to 4.35mn b/d until March next year. Production data from the federal government in Baghdad put output at 4.54mn b/d this year.
Iraq's low compliance led to an appearance before a joint ministerial monitoring committee meeting earlier this month to discuss its future production plans. Saudi Arabia's oil minister Khalid al-Falih made comments after a meeting with his Iraqi counterpart Jabbar al-Luaibi on 8 August that could be interpreted as a public hint that Iraq needs to improve its compliance.
Iraq's production published two days later in Opec's latest Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) showed output at 4.4mn b/d in July, down by 150,000 b/d from June. A regional breakdown for July, provided by the oil ministry, shows a decline of 374,000 b/d when compared with the previously-published breakdown for September 2016, before the Opec agreement. The biggest fall comes from state-owned North Oil, (NOC) followed by the Kurdistan region (see table).
An explanation for the large drop from NOC could be a methodology change. The ministry's September figure for NOC included production from Bai Hassan and Avanah Dome, in Kirkuk, even though these fields were taken over by the KRG in 2014 to prevent them falling to Islamist group Isis. Production from the two fields totalled 275,000 b/d in September last year.
Data from the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) placed the region's output at just over 560,000 b/d for the same month in 2016, similar to the federal government's estimate but including production from Bai Hassan and Avanah Dome.Wisconsin refinery: small Calumet Specialty refinery to be bought by Husky Energy for $435 million.
Husky produces primarily heavy oil from oil sands and conventional operations in western Canada and the deal will help it manage exposure to depressed global crude prices, which are hovering below $50 a barrel on concerns about a persistent supply glut CLc1.
Husky said it would retain about 180 workers at the refinery, which can process Canadian heavy crude and light and medium barrels from Canada and the Bakken region, and also boosts the company's asphalt production capacity.Alibaba. Huge beat.
Platts says "not including Libya and Nigeria, compliance among OPEC's 12 members ...remains robust at 114%, down slightly from 116% in June, based on an average of January through July output."
Compliance is 114% but yet OPEC production "hits high of 32.82 million bopd." Okay.
Week
|
Date
|
Drawdown
|
Storage
|
Weeks to RB
|
Week 0
|
Apr 26, 2017
|
529.0
|
180
|
|
Week 1
|
May 3, 2017
|
0.9
|
528.0
|
198
|
Week 2
|
May 10, 2017
|
6
|
522.0
|
50
|
Week 3
|
May 17, 2017
|
1.8
|
520.2
|
59
|
Week 4
|
May 24, 2017
|
4.4
|
515.8
|
51
|
Week 5
|
May 31, 2017
|
6.4
|
509.9
|
41
|
Week 6
|
June 7, 2017
|
-3.3
|
513.2
|
60
|
Week 7
|
June 14, 2017
|
1.7
|
511.5
|
57
|
Week 8
|
June 21, 2017
|
2.5
|
509.0
|
62
|
Week 9
|
June 28, 2017
|
-0.2
|
509.2
|
71
|
Week 10
|
July 6, 2017
|
6.3
|
502.9
|
58
|
Week 11
|
July 12, 2017
|
7.6
|
495.3
|
47
|
Week 12
|
July 19, 2017
|
4.7
|
490.6
|
43
|
Week 13
|
July 26, 2017
|
7.2
|
483.4
|
38
|
Week 14
|
August 2, 2017
|
1.5
|
481.9
|
39
|
Saudi Arabia is doing a great job in perpetuating this myth, that ND and TX won't play along.
In fact, as I posted on the blog earlier this week, total OPEC production has hit new records (mostly due to Iraq).
Saudi Arabia has a problem; it's not ND, TX. Saudi Arabia's problem is Iraq, Iran, and Libya.
I assume it was Saudi money that was behind all the efforts to kill shale crude oil pipelines and all the anti-fracking activity. Not all Saudi money but a huge portion of it.Later: the reader reminds me that Putin was also involved in the US anti-fracking, anti-pipeline movement.
OPEC is worried that its plan to drain a global oil glut—and thereby raise crude prices—isn’t working.And then this.
A long-planned meeting in St. Petersburg, Russia, on Monday to discuss the oil market with big producers outside the cartel has turned into a critical gathering. Over the weekend, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said, its ministers have held a series of “intensive consultations” about the challenges for an output-cutting deal the 14-nation cartel struck last year with Russia and other big producers.
The agreement was supposed to take almost 1.8 million barrels of crude oil off the global market and drain an oversupply that has weighed prices down for three years and sent a shock through the economies of oil-producing economies. But prices have remained stubbornly low as the glut persists. Brent, the international benchmark, fell 2.5%, to $48.06 on Friday because of doubts about OPEC’s ability to turn around the market.
Libyan and Nigerian officials have signaled a willingness to limit their production once it stabilizes, but the details are being negotiated.
An OPEC official said Iraqi production would also be discussed, as the cartel member’s output has remained much higher than its agreed upon levels.Compare that to what I posted just a few hours earlier: Saudi Arabia has an Iraqi problem. Nigeria and Libya are red herrings.
Conflict-torn Libya, divided between rival factions in the east and the west, recently reached 1 million bpd of crude oil output—for the first time since 2013.Bottom line: no matter how you spin it; no matter how many times OPEC has meetings, there is a huge global crude oil glut. Period. Dot. Every Arab for himself. And we're going to see exactly how cheap crude oil can go before US oil companies cry "uncle."
The sustained fall in oil prices over the past week is indicative of the consensus view that the 1.8 million barrel per day coordinated output cut among the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and non-OPEC is not deep enough to rebalance global oil markets in 2017, or even in 2018.
Also contributing to this bearish outlook are serious concerns around U.S. gasoline demand. In its Weekly Petroleum Status Report on Wednesday, the U.S. Energy Information Agency (EIA) showed a surprise build to gasoline stocks for the week ending June 9.
The report also showed that gasoline demand in the United States had fallen week over week and was 5 percent lower than during the same period in 2016. Over the last four-week period, total motor gasoline consumption in the United States averaged 9.5 million barrels per day, which was 1.2 percent lower than the same period last year. OPEC cuts not cutting it and US gasoline demand not cutting it.Note again, from the lede:
... the 1.8 million barrel per day coordinated output cut among the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and non-OPEC is not deep enough to rebalance global oil markets in 2017, or even in 2018...Over the last four-week period, total motor gasoline consumption in the United States averaged 9.5 million barrels per day, which was 1.2 percent lower than the same period last year...I think that's the first time I've seen that in the mainstream business media so explicitly, that at the current rate of US crude oil supply / demand, "re-balancing" is not going to occur any time soon.
Week
|
Date
|
Drawdown
|
Storage
|
Weeks to RB
|
Week 0
|
Apr 26, 2017
|
529
|
180
|
|
Week 1
|
May 3, 2017
|
0.9
|
528
|
178
|
Week 2
|
May 10, 2017
|
6
|
522
|
29
|
Week 3
|
May 17, 2017
|
1.8
|
520.2
|
95
|
Week 4
|
May 24, 2017
|
4.4
|
515.8
|
38
|
Week 5
|
May 31, 2017
|
6.4
|
509.9
|
41
|
Week 6
|
June 7, 2017
|
-3.3
|
513.2
|
60
|
Week 7
|
June 14, 2017
|
1.7
|
511.5
|
63
|
Also weighing on prices was Wednesday’s report from the International Energy Agency (IEA), which projected 2018 oil supply from non-OPEC producers to grow by 1.5 million barrels per day (almost twice the increase estimated for 2017).
The significant uptick in estimated production growth for 2018 is due mostly to rising expected production from U.S. tight oil formations. The IEA estimated that demand would grow by 1.4 million barrels a day in 2018 – largely from China and India.In case you missed it, based on estimates:
Saudi Arabia has committed to reducing its exports to the United States to under 1 million barrels per day during the summer months. In addition, the Kingdom has increased its pricing to Asian customers of its crude, which should have the effect of lowering export volumes.
Whether the move to decrease exports to the United States is an attempt at sleight of hand to convince oil markets that crude inventories are draining is up for debate. It should be noted that most crude traders essentially use U.S. crude inventory levels as a proxy for the health of global crude markets due to the availability and quality of data.
Many in the market believe that the Saudis may not be reducing its overall production levels, and could in fact, possibly be using crude that was otherwise destined for the United States as feedstock for power generation in-country – when demand for air-conditioning surges during the summer months.Remember: Saudi Arabia HAS to cut imports to the US during the summer months -- all things being equal -- if the kingdom cuts production (wink, wink). Saudi has decreased its crude oil inventories significantly and Saudi's domestic consumption of oil surges in the summer months to provide electricity to run air conditioners.