Tuesday, April 30, 2024

Inflation Watch -- Detergent -- April 30, 2024

Locator: 47114INFLATION.

For previous posts on this subject, search "detergent" on the blog.

The bar is 13 cents / load for detergent, although I have found it for as low as 8 cents / load.

Today, holy mackerel: paid $1.99 for 50-loads --


$1.99 / 50 = 4 cents / load.

I didn't get a picture of the large Tide "on sale": $19.99 for 45 loads: $19.99 / 45 = 44 cents per load.

This wasn't shinkflation. This was seriously misleading by the makers of the detergent, not the retailer.

Can you imagine? Folks who are having trouble making ends meet, pay $20 for a container of detergent vs $1.99 for the same amount in terms of number of loads.

WTI Drops Below $82 -- Oil Sector Spooked -- Huges Losses On Market -- April 30, 2024

Locator: 47113WTI.

A reminder: this is the last day of the month, for whatever that's worth.

"Stagflation" is back in the conversation. Steve Liesman says he doesn't see it. In very strong words, and very loudly, he says he doesn't see "stagflation." His response: he says there are still folks worried about the Fed precipitating a recession. 

Back to WTI: all the above and peace breaking out in the Mideast.

US equity markets: across the board fell 1.5% to 2%. It appears energy and tech took the greatest hits.

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $81.93

Active rigs: 38.

Five new permits, #40704 - #40708, inclusive:

  • Operators: Oasis (3); Phoenix Operating, MRO,
  • Fields: Eightmile (Williams); Burg (Divide); Bailey (Dunn)
  • Comments:
    • Oasis has permits for three Lake Trenton wells, lot 2 section 31-153-102; 
      • to be sited 1782 FNL and between 337 FWL and 436 FWL;
    • Phoenix Operating has a permit for a Axel Ferrari well, SESW 24-160-99, 
      • to be sited 330 FSL and 1426 FWL
    • MRO has a permit for a Simmons wells, SESE 21-146-93, 
      • to be sited 598 FSL and 622 FEL

Interesting:

  • Phoenix Operating, with four Jean Ferrari wells plugged or producing, NENW 26-160-100; 

The maps:

Three producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  • 37924, n/d, BR, Boxer 2A TFH,
  • 37932, n/d, BR, Parrish 3C TFH,
  • 39752, 729, Slawson, Armada Federal 5-14-18TFH,

Breast Cancer: Mammography Recommendations Updated -- April 30, 2024

Locator: 47099BREASTCANCER.

Task force updates guidance for breast cancer screenings for women and older (until age 74. Link here

These new recommendations, published Tuesday in the medical journal JAMA, replace the task force’s 2016 recommendations. Some groups, such as the American Cancer Society, have already recommended for women to start mammograms in their 40s.

Unless I missed it, there is very little (or no) discussion of current mortality rates, or how mortality rates have changed over time.

**************************
Breast Cancer

Previously posted.

Locator: 46916CANCER.

This might be the best link from Radiology, published February 9, 2021. Very, very concerning.

The data years: The authors conducted a retrospective analysis of (a) female breast cancer mortality rates from NCHS data for 1969–2017 for all...

Results

  • between 1989 and 2010, breast cancer mortality rates decreased by 1.5%–3.4% per year for each age decade from 20 to 79 years...
  • after 2010, breast cancer mortality rates continued to decline by 1.2%–2.2% per year in women in each age decade from 40 to 79 years but stopped declining in women younger than 40 years.

The chart at the top of the page at this link has an anomalous data point, undated (?) but most recent data is through calendar year 2020 which suggests same data base as the Radiology link above.  

If I'm reading the chart correctly:

An observation: for all the billions spent on research, the observed death rate in the past ten years, 2009 - 2019, not encouraging. Yes, the drop from 22.2 to 19.4 looks great statistically but to the individual patient, no change in observed death rate in the past ten years

Comment: like everything else in human endeavor, I assume there's a lot of "group think" in research labs around the world. One wonders if some out-of-the-box thinking might be indicated. And perhaps there has been; I certainly don't know. I don't follow breast cancer except for occasionally looking at the statistics. But these statistics are depressing. Maybe I'm being too negative.

Comment: we won't know until 2024 or 2025 but the statistics will be very, very interesting for the calendar years 2020 and 2021 when Covid interrupted outpatient visits when early diagnosis might have been made and for many cancer therapy might have been interrupted. Again, the best study, the Radiology study covered breast cancer data from 1969 to 2017, well before 2021 - 2023.

 *****************************
Prostate Cancer

Link here.

 Again, typographical errors and content errors likely. If this is important to you, go to the source.

Personal Investing -- Taxes

Locator: 47098PERSINV.

I'm starting a new series on investing that I can share with my extended family members, most of whom have Schwab accounts but little understanding about investing.

Anything I write here is meant only for my extended family members and no other readers. It is a starting point for discussion among the family members. Nothing is written in stone. These posts will be updated as conditions change. Blogs for this series will all be linked under the "Personal Investing" tab at the top of the blog. 

Again, this advice is for the money heirs will receive in their inheritance. It is not about their current financial management plan or their financial plan after we die, if that makes sense. The emphasis is on tax-free growth of retirement accounts and college education savings programs.

*****************************
First And Foremost

Unless someone can tell me differently, the most important thing: do everything you can to grow your money tax-free. 

This blog on personal investing is directed to adult family members, with or without children:

  • who have earned income, or is married to a spouse with earned income;
  • who have earned income less than $250,000.01, joint filing;
  • who are saving / investing for retirement;
  • who are saving / investing for college expenses (or other educational expenses);
  • who know very little about investing but are eager to learn:

Highly advised:

  • the extended family members to whom this blog is addressed have established online accounts with a discount broker, preferably Schwab

Risk tolerance:
  • varies but I don't think I address or will address risk tolerance in these notes

Personal Investing -- Coverdell Education Savings Accounts -- Coverdell ESA -- An Alternative To The 529

Locator: 47097PERSINV.

I'm starting a new series on investing that I can share with my extended family members, most of whom have Schwab accounts but little understanding about investing.

Anything I write here is meant only for my extended family members and no other readers. It is a starting point for discussion among the family members. Nothing is written in stone. These posts will be updated as conditions change. They will eventually be collected and linked under the "Personal Investing" tab at the top of the blog.

**************************
Coverdell: An Alternative To The 529

There are some downsides to the "529" which I can discuss at another time. 

I still consider the "529" the best thing since sliced bread for folks like me and the extended family member to whom this is addressed.

However, as noted there are a couple of downsides to the "529."

The first question: can one have a "self-directed 529" just as one has a self-directed IRA?

No.

However. There is a way to accomplish the same thing as a "self-directed 529" if one was allowed to have self-directed 529s.

They are called Coverdell Education Savings Accounts. Link here.

There are many more restrictions on the Coverdale ESA than the "529." In addition, I've always felt uncomfortable with a Coverdell ESA for some reason. I don't know why. Well, it turns out that the law was changed in 2002 with regard to the Coverdell ESA and it appears to be an excellent option for saving for a child's college education.

Does Schwab offer Coverdell ESAs? Yes, of course. Link here.

Lots of restrictions. But they don't matter. 

Advice for the extended family member for which this investing series is directed: have a mix of 529s and Coverdell ESAs. 

I don't consider Covderdell ESAs an alternative to 529s, nor do I consider Coverdell ESAs an "alternative" to the 529. I consider them complementary, offering contributors and beneficiaries flexibility among other benefits.

So, again, have a mix of 529s and Coverdell ESAs. Or a very, very rich uncle. 

Speaking of which, we all have a rich uncle and ROTC scholarships are awesome. But I digress.

Some rules:

  • income limit for the extended family member: around $190,000 (check latest IRS rules)
  • contributions don't reduce your income taxes (same with Roth IRAs)
  • any number of Coverdell ESAs for any beneficiary but total amount any beneficiary can receive in any tax year is $2,000
  • therefore, with two children, under the age of 18, a mother and father can contribute up to $2,000 total for each child, no matter how Coverdell ESAs they have

Item:

  • with a mix of Coverdell ESAs and 529s, when a child goes to school, and starts paying for education, deplete the Coverdell ESAs first.

Links:


Personal Investing -- Tax-Free Retirement Plans Are Not Created Equal

Locator: 47096PERSINV.

I'm starting a new series on investing that I can share with my extended family members, most of whom have Schwab accounts but little understanding about investing.

Anything I write here is meant only for my extended family members and no other readers. It is a starting point for discussion among the family members. Nothing is written in stone. These posts will be updated as conditions change. They will eventually be collected and linked under the "Personal Investing" tab at the top of the blog. 

**************************
Tax-Free Retirement Plans Are Not Created Equal

In fact, calling them tax-free is a mistake. They are tax-deferred. My mistake. I should have said "tax-deferred" but this brings up a nice point.

I can't think of many financial facts of life that will hurt your portfolio more than paying taxes. 

I can't say it often enough: taking the IRA tax credit at the front end is inconsequential compared to the taxes you will pay at the back end.

Forget about the tax deduction on the front end (traditional IRA) and, unless I'm missing something, go with a Roth IRA.

IRS FAQs.

Consumer Spending -- April 30, 2024

Locator: 47112SPENDING.

John Brown, CNBC, pointed this out today, link here

Also, here.

This came up in discussion regarding McDonald's challenges.

Chart Of The Day -- US Wind -- April 30, 2024

Locator: 47111WIND.

This does not bode well for EV infrastructure.

Of the two "renewables," wind greatly overshadows (pun intended) solar.

Link here.

Tech Note -- April 30, 2024

Locator: 47110TECH.

After spending quite a bit of time on Broadcom yesterday (research), it appears that to a great degree all of these "chip companies" -- designers, fabricators -- have a monopoly in their "narrow" sector of the "semiconductor" market.  

The chip companies that appear to be benefiting from this:

  • NVDA -- GPUs
  • AMD (XLNX) -- FPGAs
  • TSM -- fabricator
  • AVGO -- AISCs
  • MU -- memory
  • ASML -- foundries 
  • LRCX -- equipment

Fabs vs foundries: there is a difference


Cloud
:

  • many competitors but the pie is getting exponentially bigger
    • Zeck suggests the cloud is well under-utilized
  • requires lots of chips

Next big thing: not really "next." It's already here: ad-supported streaming. Huge new beneficiary:

  • Netflix

NOG -- 1Q24

Locator: 47109B.

1Q24 highlights:

  • record quarterly production of 119,436 Boe per day (59% oil), increases of 4% from the fourth quarter of 2023 and 37% from the first quarter of 2023 
  • GAAP net income of $11.6 million, Adjusted Net Income of $130.5 million and Adjusted EBITDA of $387.0 million.
  • cash flow from operations of $392.1 million. Ccash flow from operations was $352.5 million, an increase of 19% from the first quarter of 2023 
  • generated $54.0 million of free cash flow.
  • closed on previously announced acquisition of non-operated interests across 3,000 net acres in the Northern Delaware Basin 
  • after the closing of the Northern Delaware acquisition in the first quarter, NOG paid $40 million in common stock dividends, repurchased $20 million of common stock, and repaid approximately $50 million of debt 

Ticker:


Dividend history:

Zeck -- April 30, 2024

Locator: 47108TECH.

On CNBC early this morning. An interview worth watching.

Acronym, KPMs:


The interview

  • Ed Norton was right on streaming;
  • Ed Norton was wrong on streaming sports, news -- but in a very narrow way; overall he was right on
  • the big question: why is it taking so long to go from linear network television to streaming?

On another note: if one wants to see Ed Norton at his best, one might start with Birdman.

With regard to Zeck: no recommendation. This is not an investment site. See disclaimers.

**************************
Personal Note
For the Archives

Our oldest granddaughter will be graduating from Vanderbilt this next autumn, one semester early. Summer internship in Washington, DC. Interviewing for jobs now.

Our "middle" granddaughter has signed to matriculate at Stanford. Yeah, that Stanford. 

Full scholarship. Accepted, but declined, Harvard, Duke where she also had full scholarship. "Safe" schools: UT-Texas-Austin; Texas A&M. Major: electrical engineering. Eager to join several clubs, including: a) advanced hacking; b) polo; c) flying club; d) robotics.

Youngest granddaughter, elementary school: suspended for three hours due to bad behavior on bus along with the entire group on the bus.

Twins, four years old: working on their "s's" in speech therapy. 

***************************
YouTube

I understand it not.

Link here.

40,000 views.

Facebook -- META -- Higher Losses For Longer -- April 30, 2024

Locator: 47107TECH.

Link here.

I don't follow META - Facebook very closely -- but this is very interesting. This may be an interesting ticker to follow. I don't invest in META and have no plans to do so. No recommendation. See disclaimers.

The takeaways for me:

  • AI is here to stay;
  • content providers are going to spend a lot of money on chips;

Out on a limb:

  • does Zuckerberg know something the rest of us don't know?
  • is AI an existential issue for some content providers?
  • implications for AAPL? In a bad way.

Look at the story at the link:

Facebook owner Meta registered nearly $4 billion in losses for its metaverse and AI research wing in the first quarter, with the company’s stock crashing by more than 11 percent in a single day.
Meta's “Reality Labs” division suffered massive losses.
Reality Labs is the company’s research and development wing focusing on immersive technologies like metaverse, virtual reality, and AI.
Reality Labs registered a loss of $3.84 billion between January and March 2024 against a revenue of just $440 million.
Meta began reporting Reality Labs as a separate business segment at the end of 2020. Since then, losses from the segment have exceeded $45 billion.
Mark Zuckerberg suggested that the firm could continue suffering losses for some more time in its AI efforts. More investments will be required before Meta makes “revenue from some of these new products” like AI, he said. 
Meta reported a 27 percent increase in revenue and a 117 percent jump in net income for the quarter compared to first quarter 2023.
However, the chief executive’s comments that Reality Labs’ endeavors will take more time to become profitable negatively affected investor sentiment, especially since the sector has already seen billions of dollars in losses.

Meta’s market capitalization at the end of Wednesday was $1.27 trillion. During Thursday morning trading, its market cap declined to $1.10 trillion—a wipeout of $170 billion in value.
The earnings report also predicted higher expenses for Reality Labs moving forward.

Kraken's Alamo And Maddie Pads North Of Williston -- April 30, 2024

Locator: 47106B.

One of eight, two pads:

39526, conf, Kraken, Alamo 3-34-27 3H,

The map:

Tuesday, April 30, 2024

Locator: 47105B.

CNBC: quarter to date (one month?):

  • loser: INTC leads the list
  • winner: CVX

Market: futures slumped when wage data released this morning. 

  • the employment cost index, a measure of wages for civilian workers, jumped 1.2% in the March quarter, above the 1% consensus estimate from economists polled by Dow Jones. Treasury yields jumped following the data.
  • by noon, this data point will have been forgotten.

Surging: PayPal, Eli Lilly, 3M.

Bloomberg:

  • Cocoa plunged by the most ever — slumping as much as 27% in just two days — with price swings becoming more extreme as fewer investors and companies can afford to maintain trading positions. 
  • Southeast Asia’s heat wave is pushing temperatures and power demand to records, straining grids and prompting traders to bulk up on natural gas cargoes. Europe’s summer is also forecast to be hotter than usual. 
  • Chevron Corp. expects a resolution to a dispute with Exxon Mobil Corp. over a Guyana oil contract in coming months that would allow its $53 billion acquisition of Hess Corp. to complete this year.

McDonald's earnings:

"Free speech" is not free.

****************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $83.10. Recovers a bit in early morning trading.

Wednesday, May 1, 2024: 2 for the month; 66 for the quarter, 265 for the year
40120, conf, Slawson, Teapot Federal 6-15-14TFH,
39526, conf, Kraken, Alamo 3-34-27 3H,

Tuesday, April 30, 2024: 64 for the month; 64 for the quarter, 263 for the year
40233, conf, Empire North Dakota, Bufflehead 29-3A 1H,
40122, conf, Slawson, Teapot Federal 7-15-14TFH,
40121, conf, Slawson, Teapot Federal 1 SLH,
39525, conf, Kraken, Alamo 3-34-27 4H,
39463, conf, Hess, EN-Bakke-157-93-1522H-5, 
39347, conf, Hess, Ti-T Lalim-157-95-0214H-4, 

RBN Energy: upcoming W2W maintenance will tighten Permian oil takeaway, wreak havoc on prices. Archived.

The largest crude oil pipeline exiting the Permian Basin by volume — Wink to Webster (W2W) — is planned to be offline for maintenance for the first 10 days of June. This is inclusive of Enterprise’s Midland-to-ECHO III (ME III), which reflects the company’s 29% undivided joint interest in W2W. Although the outage has not been publicly confirmed, it’s our understanding that 1.5 MMb/d of capacity will be offline to reroute a small section of pipeline. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll examine how the planned maintenance will impact Permian Basin oil takeaway capacity and what it may mean for Midland WTI pricing. 

Monday, April 29, 2024

Tesla -- April 29, 2024

Locator: 47104EVS.

We can talk about this article tomorrow. Too late tonight; I'm heading for bed, some music, some reflection.

Breaking news

Samsung Electronics’ operating profit jumps 933% in first quarter, beats expectations.

CPUs, GPUs, Cores, Threads, And All That Jazz -- Part 2 -- April 29, 2024

Locator: 47103TECH.

So, humor me. We might learn something. I know nothing about this but it could be an interesting rabbit hole to explore.

This goes back to one of my better blogs on "CPUs, GPUs, cores, threads, and all that jazz." 

In the first sentence I mentioned FinFET and GAAFET but TLDR. Tonight I was curious, so I followed the link. Fortunately the link still worked and the article was still accessible. 

Now I understand "FinFET"and to some extent "GAAFET."

This is not a trivial subject for an investor. This article was posted April 17, 2023, one year ago. This paragraph jumped out at me:

The leading semiconductor manufacturers (TSMC in Taiwan, Samsung in Korea, and Intel in the U.S.) are on the cusp of introducing a major change in transistor morphology. [Remember: this was back in 2023 -- last year.]

This new configuration is called GAA, GAAFET (Gate All Around), RibbonFET, MBC, MBCFET (Multi-Bridge-Channel) Nanosheet transistor, or Nanowire transistor, depending on the author. In this article, I will use the term GAAFET.

This seems important to know if one wants a bit of insight into investing in this arena.

Time to get the "reader's digest" version of all this. To wiki we go: link here. It will take a while to go through all of this but look at just this one section:

The first FinFET transistor type was called a "Depleted Lean-channel Transistor" (DELTA) transistor, which was first fabricated in Japan by Hitachi Central Research Laboratory's Digh Hisamoto, Toru Kaga, Yoshifumi Kawamoto and Eiji Takeda in 1989.

The gate of the transistor can cover and electrically contact the semiconductor channel fin on both the top and the sides or only on the sides. The former is called a tri-gate transistor and the latter a double-gate transistor. A double-gate transistor optionally can have each side connected to two different terminal or contacts. This variant is called split transistor. This enables more refined control of the operation of the transistor.

Indonesian engineer Effendi Leobandung, while working at the University of Minnesota, published a paper with Stephen Y. Chou at the 54th Device Research Conference in 1996 outlining the benefit of cutting a wide CMOS transistor into many channels with narrow width to improve device scaling and increase device current by increasing the effective device width.

This structure is what a modern FinFET looks like. Although some device width is sacrificed by cutting it into narrow widths, the conduction of the side wall of narrow fins more than make up for the loss, for tall fins.

The device had a 35 nm channel width and 70 nm channel length.

The potential of Digh Hisamoto's research on DELTA transistors drew the attention of the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA), which in 1997 awarded a contract to a research group at the University of California, Berkeley to develop a deep sub-micron transistor based on DELTA technology.

The group was led by Hisamoto [Hitachi] along with TSMC's Chenming Hu. The team made the following breakthroughs between 1998 and 2004.[16]

  • 1998 – N-channel FinFET (17 nm) – Digh Hisamoto, Chenming Hu, Tsu-Jae King Liu, Jeffrey Bokor, Wen-Chin Lee, Jakub Kedzierski, Erik Anderson, Hideki Takeuchi, Kazuya Asano
  • 1999 – P-channel FinFET (sub-50 nm) – Digh Hisamoto, Chenming Hu, Xuejue Huang, Wen-Chin Lee, Charles Kuo, Leland Chang, Jakub Kedzierski, Erik Anderson, Hideki Takeuchi
  • 2001 – 15 nm FinFET – Chenming Hu, Yang-Kyu Choi, Nick Lindert, P. Xuan, S. Tang, D. Ha, Erik Anderson, Tsu-Jae King Liu, Jeffrey Bokor
  • 2002 – 10 nm FinFET – Shibly Ahmed, Scott Bell, Cyrus Tabery, Jeffrey Bokor, David Kyser, Chenming Hu, Tsu-Jae King Liu, Bin Yu, Leland Chang
  • 2004 – High-κ/metal gate FinFET – D. Ha, Hideki Takeuchi, Yang-Kyu Choi, Tsu-Jae King Liu, W. Bai, D.-L. Kwong, A. Agarwal, M. Ameen

They coined the term "FinFET" (fin field-effect transistor) in a December 2000 paper, used to describe a non-planar, double-gate transistor built on an SOI substrate.

I'll come back to this later, but probably won't post any more blogs on it for awhile (if ever).

The reason this is important to me is to sort out how Broadcom (AVGO) fits into this puzzle. Why? Because of this in a Motley Fool article:

While many investors consider Nvidia the quintessential artificial intelligence (AI) stock, almost every company listed above is well positioned to monetize AI.

For instance, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon are the three largest cloud computing companies in the world, meaning they are gatekeepers of AI infrastructure and platform services. Broadcom is the leader in application specific integrated circuits (ASICs), meaning it helps companies like Meta Platforms and Alphabet design custom AI chips.

Similarly, Tesla is designing full self-driving software and its supercomputer (Dojo) is purpose-built for training computer vision systems; both represent potentially significant revenue streams. Finally, Advanced Micro Devices is the second largest supplier of data center GPUs, though it trails Nvidia's market share by about 90 percentage points.
And how did I happen on that Motley Fool article? I was checking up on QQQ. I'll talk about QQQ later in another blog, but I posted a bit earlier this evening.

I typed out the entire "portfolio" of QQQ which was an incredibly worthwhile exercise. I can't post the QQQ portfolio because it's too long but I highly recommend investors interested in the semiconductor sector spend some time looking at the QQQ fund. 




CNBC -- HSY -- April 29, 2024

Locator: 47102INV.

CNBC had a live interview earlier today and discussed HSY and cost of cocoa. I was watching the crash in the price of cocoa in real time and the ticker price of HSY rising in real time, and CNBC never caught it while interviewing the "analyst / expert" on HSY, and why HSY was continuing to go down in price. 

The producer was not paying attention; failed to call an audible for the CNBC journalist interviewing the HSY analyst / expert.

Link here.


Two CLR Bohmbach Wells With A Great Jump In Production -- April 29, 2024

Locator: 47101B.

 The wells:

  • 18911, 428, CLR, Bohmbach 2-35H, Elm Tree, t7/10; cum 436K 2/24;
  • 18137, 472, CLR, Bohmbach 1-35H, Elm Tree, t7/09; cum 422K 2/24;

18137:

BAKKEN8-201831937289485887129951248493
BAKKEN7-201831102991036267991176210883460
BAKKEN6-20183011549115097464117251125890
BAKKEN5-20182811135107008098149101462569
BAKKEN4-20180000000
BAKKEN3-20180000000
BAKKEN2-2018121285433033
BAKKEN1-201882874795239130824
BAKKEN12-2017311208136023818361460128
BAKKEN11-201730119076023516621258164
BAKKEN10-2017311276158830225342166120
BAKKEN9-201730132999325621851339614
BAKKEN8-2017311524171940929072308361
BAKKEN7-2017158857801381422620705
BAKKEN6-201728123313533151883956712
BAKKEN5-2017311537129444123761880249
BAKKEN4-201730102311761081766143690
BAKKEN3-201731993751821764142393
BAKKEN2-20172883610015815881257135
BAKKEN1-201731121513301952305197893

18911:

BAKKEN11-20183013042130287460319363145490
BAKKEN10-20183121772220151119538875369751481
BAKKEN9-20183024572240761159228291258942133
BAKKEN8-20183133693334386342143505290
BAKKEN7-201831346135624659392224761039
BAKKEN6-2018282296232532421708141357
BAKKEN5-2018233230295045412911266669
BAKKEN4-2018003890000
BAKKEN3-20180000000
BAKKEN2-20180000000
BAKKEN1-2018124202569870056836
BAKKEN12-201731112012801902115177493
BAKKEN11-201730103656625319501576134
BAKKEN10-2017311104133629322511883120
BAKKEN9-2017301091117319721141432442
BAKKEN8-2017311142111922624521883321
BAKKEN7-201731111384620221101061815

Investing -- Commentary -- April 29, 2024

Locator: 47100INV.

In all my years of investing -- since 1984 -- wow, that's 40 years -- hopefully I've learned something along the way -- I've never seen anything like this market. 

I cannot recall any time when the best sector surged, like the current tech sector surged, and seems to be "real." This is unlike the dot-com surge/bubble in the 1990s (Investopedia) which I remember very, very well. 

We won't know for several years if it's another bubble but right now, unlike the dot-com bubble, the surging sector -- the tech sector actually has a product to sell and can't keep up with demand. 

So, there's that. An AI-surge that doesn't seem to be an AI-bubble.

Then this: this is the longest bull market ever. Again, this is the longest bull market in history. It began in 2009 and any pullback was an anomaly -- the 2020 - 2021 Covid lockdown -- smart investors kept investing through that pullback and by 2023, the bull market trend was back on track.

So, there's that. The longest bull market in history.

Then, this: the bull market shows no slowing despite the Fed doing what it can to slow the market. That's not their mandate, but that's what the Fed is doing -- call it "collateral damage" --  trying to tame inflation. 

So, there's that. 

But this is what's really, really huge.

The huge demographic change between what's going on now and what was going on during the past five bubbles.

Right now, the largest transfer of wealth in the history of humankind.

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QQQ

Link here.

There are 100 tickers in the QQQ. Remember Peter Lynch? 20 companies (tickers). His bio is worth a read.

We'll talk about this later. See this post for the beginning of this discussion.



Chart Of The Day -- April 29, 2024

Locator: 47099B.

Link here. This absolutely destroys "Hubbert's peak theory." But we knew this years ago.

Now, back to the EIA charts. The EIA link is here.

It seems the EIA was concentrating on the one-year change from 2021 to 2022. 

The bigger story is the "Bakken revolution" -- a metonym for the US shale revolution which began slowly in 2000 in Montana Bakken and then took off in 2007 in the North Dakota Bakken. The Bakken reached its stride in 2012 at which time the Permian began to take off.

So, let's run the numbers based on the graphs.

Crude oil:

  • 2000: 22 billion bbls
  • 2007: 20 billion bbls (an actual decrease, y/y)
  • 2012: parabolic to 30 billion bbls -- up 50% between 2007 and 2012 -- five years
  • 2013: peak up to that year -- 40 billion bbls, doubled in thirteen years (from 2000)


In this same time period, Saudi Arabia's reserves remained constant.

  • 2015 - 2016: another record set, 48 million bbls
  • 2022: trending toward 50 million bbls -- which would represent an increase from 20 million bbls in 2005 to 50 million bbls in 2022 -- is that a 150% increase over seventeen years?

Again, in the same period, Saudi Arabia's reserves remained constant.

This is what bothers me, surprises me, irritates me -- the EIA focused on a one-year change, from 2021 to 2022. Yes, they showed the graphics, but the real story is the 150% increase in US crude oil reserves in half my investing lifetime.

Natural gas?

  • from a low of 190 TCF in the 1990s to 700 TCF in 2022
  • (700 - 190) / 190 = 2.68 = a 268% jump in reserves.

Holy mackerel. 

I often make simple arithmetic errors and I often misread reports; if any of this is important to you, go to the source. 

Can you imagine what the numbers would have been had we had a national government that actually supported the crude oil / natural gas industry?

***************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $82.63 -- drops 1.45%.

Active rigs: 42.

One new permit, #40703:

  • Operator: BR
  • Field: Antelope (McKenzie)
  • Comments:
    • BR has a permit for a Bohmbach well, NENW 26-153-94, 
      • to be sited 325 FNL and 3124 FWL