China, Covid, And Finally Understanding The "Why" -- The New Yorker -- November 30, 2022

I finally understand it. It finally makes sense.

China. 

The lock downs. 

The craziness.

There two competing (?) theories:

• politics: this theory has to do with power; Xi's obsession with remaining in absolute control;
• medical: the other has to do with Xi's genuine fear of Covid-19 getting out of control.

In the big scheme of things, 

• there really aren't that many active cases of Covid-19 in the country; and, 
• even more interesting, the seriousness of the disease is minimal (as reported by others, the Chinese no longer fear the disease; and the mortality in China from Covid -- where healthcare is much less sophisticated than that in the west -- is 0.025%. 
• Compare that with a mortality rate of 1.1 percent in the US.

Okay, so I have flip-flopped on this issue. I initially thought it was a political issue -- Xi using Covid-19 as an excuse to lock up those who disagree / disagreed with him; even if that meant shutting down entire cities that might threaten his regime.

Most recently, I have stated on the blog that it is my opinion Xi is absolutely terrified of Covid-19 and what might happen to China if CCovid truly got out of control.

The media continues to oscillate around those two issues: are the lock downs a tool to maintain political power or a real (medical) concern for the implications for China if the disease gets out of control?

So, that's where most of us stand -- the "us" being who even follow the Chinese Covid story and care. 

Break, break.

I subscribe to The New Yorker. 

As part of that subscription I get a "daily New Yorker note." 

Today, (Wednesday, November 30, 2022) the "daily New Yorker note" had a long essay titled, "Why China's COVID policies led to protest." The full title: "How Covid's policies and party politics set the stage for the protests in China."

Whether the author of that essay -- Isaac Chotiner -- realizes it or not, he stumbled into solving the dilemma. Is it politics or is it medical paranoia that is driving the massive lock downs?

It's all politics. But the reasons remain obscure for almost all Americans, including me until now. 

Absolutely brilliant.

Xi is only part of the problem and it appears he's going to have a major, major challenge turning this ship around. A speech by Xi ending his "zero Covid policy" is not going to work. It's much, much more complicated than that. But very, very easy to explain / understand when one understands the Chinese political structure.

Nine New Permits; One DUC Reported As Completed -- November 30, 2022

Not ready for prime time: in response to an article that suggested that OPEC had cut production by 710,000 bpd in the month of November, a reader asked my thoughts on whether OPEC at some point would quit exporting oil to the US. My response, not ready for prime time:

1. The US exported record amounts oil and refined products this past week, almost 12 million bpd -- compare that to 710,000 bpd which is divided up among all countries to which OPEC exports and domestically consumes.

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/US-Crude-Oil-Oil-Products-Exports-Hit-All-Time-High.html.

2. US imports approximately 1.5 million bopd from OPEC. https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MTTIMXX1&f=M

3. If OPEC were to cut us off, Permian, Eagle Ford, and Bakken could easily make up the difference. In fact, the Bakken might be able to do that on its own. Then there are the other half dozen shale plays onshore and all the federal offshore that could be opened if necessary. Then Canada. And now Venezuela is in play.

4. Global production is around 90 million bopd; that's an average. Can easily reach 100 million bopd. An OPEC cut of a million bopd is inconsequential, ...

5. ... but to answer your question, I doubt OPEC will ever quit exporting oil to the US. The more interesting question is when the US will say "no more OPEC oil for the US (NOPEC).

6. I no longer pay much attention to much of anything OPEC says or does. Unless they open the taps to drop oil to $20 / bbl which seems like something they would never do.

************************

Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: 40.

WTI: $80.48.

Natural gas: $7.017.

Nine new permits (Julianne Geiger, last week, "The shale boom is over."): #39438 - #39446, inclusive.

• Operators: Kraken (5); MRO (4);
• Fields: Burg (Willams County); Bailey (Dunn County)
• Comments:
• Kraken has permits for five Orbit wells, NWNE 25-159-99; 
• to be sited between 425 FNL and 557 FNL and at 2315 FEL;
• MRO has permits for four wells in Bailey oil field, SESW 33-146-94 -- Bunk, Luptak, Margery, and Claudia, 
• to be sited 360 FSL and between 1899 FWL and 2019 FWL

One producing well (a DUC) reported as completed:

• 38730, 1,511, Kraken, Fairbanks 17-20 6H,

The following wells were released from the confidential list (Julianne Geiger, last week, "The shale boom is over."):

• CLR: #37946; #37947; #38921; #37953; #38785; #37952; #37950; #37951; #37949
• Slawson: #38843;
• Petro-Hunt: #38933; #38859; #38860;
• Enerplus: #37966;
• Hunt: #38777; #38779;
• Kraken: #38730;
• Neset Consulting: #38890 (Halite 1);

So Many Bittersweet Memories -- November 30, 2022

Ms Christine McVie was 79 years old.

To think we were contemporaries ... it seems "just like yesterday."

What I would do to have those days back ... the late 70's.

Wow, Something Was Temporary -- November 30, 2022

CRASH, link here:

Staggering -- November 30, 2022

Weekly EIA petroleum report: staggering

• US crude oil inventories: decreased by a staggering 12.6 million bbls
• US crude oil inventories: at 141.9 million barrels, US crude oil inventories are 8% below their five-year average;
• refiners operating at a whopping 95.2% of their operable capacity;

WTI -- prior to release of report: up 3.06% right now; trading at $80.59. 

Market reaction:

• DVN: flat.
• XOM: down slightly
• EOG: flat.
• HES: flat.
• MNRL: up 1.3%; up 45 cents; trading at $35.30; pay an incredible 8.6%;
• ENB: up 0.8%; trading at $41.18; pays 6.3%

Social media reaction:

• Bullish Trend:

• Giovanni Staunovo:

• Giovanni Staunovo: large swing in net crude imports; way down; down 1.732 million bopd

Holy moly: nearly a three-standard deviation crude draw. 

Julianne: US crude oill, oil products exports hit all-time high. Time for an export ban?

Weekly EIA Petroleum Report -- November 30, 2022

API data yesterday: link here. 

WTI -- prior to release of report: up 3.06%; was trading at $80.59.

Weekly EIA petroleum report: staggering.

• US crude oil inventories: decreased by a staggering 12.6 million bbls
• US crude oil inventories: at 141.9 million barrels, US crude oil inventories are 8% below their five-year average;
• refiners operating at a whopping 95.2% of their operable capacity;
• distillate fuel inventories increased by 3.5 million bbls; but still 11 percent below their averagee;
  
• jet fuel supplied was up 3.7%
  

WTI -- after release of report; up 3.45%; up $2.70; trading at $80.90.

Gasoline demand: link here.

Prolific Renewables Are Key to Pacific Northwest Hydrogen Hub Plans -- RBN Energy -- November 30, 2022

RBN Energy: prolific renewables are key to Pacific Northwest hydrogen hub plans. Archived. Hydrogen is tracked here.

Today, we turn our attention to a pair of hydrogen-hub proposals in the Pacific Northwest, both of which focus on the region’s potential for producing clean hydrogen via electrolyzers powered by renewables — especially electricity from large hydroelectric plants in Washington state and Oregon, but also from new wind farms and solar facilities that would be purpose-built to power clean-hydrogen production. Washington is far and away the U.S.’s leading producer of hydropower, generating more than 70 million megawatt-hours (MWh) from its rivers and dams in 2021, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Oregon was #2 in hydropower, with just over 28 million MWh last year (edging out #3 New York, home of Niagara Falls). And yes, despite Seattle and Portland’s reputation for long streaks of cloudy, rainy weather, many other parts of Washington, Oregon and Idaho are typically dry and sunny — windy too — offering a lot of potential for solar and wind power.

As we said earlier, there are two separate but overlapping hub proposals in the Pacific Northwest. One is advanced by the Pacific Northwest Hydrogen Association (PNWH₂), a public-private partnership led by the state governments in Washington and Oregon that also includes representatives from industry, universities and colleges, labor unions and Native American tribal interests, among others. The other proposal is being advanced by Obsidian Renewables, a Lake Oswego, OR-based solar developer that has been working with a range of port-agency, labor and tribal representatives on what it calls the Obsidian Pacific Northwest Hydrogen Hub — we’ll refer to it as the Obsidian plan. (Obsidian, by the way, is a dark natural glass formed by the cooling of molten lava — Oregon has lots of the stuff.)

Obsidian Renewables took the unusual step of making its hydrogen-hub concept paper public — few, if any, others have — and, given that the proposal is quite specific, we’ll begin with a description of it, then follow that up with a more general look at PNWH₂’s plan.

Several Wells Coming Off Confidential List Today; WTI Back Over $80 -- November 30, 2022

WTI: up 3.06% right now; trading at $80.59.

Note: the Biden administration will not re-fill the SPR. A floor has been set for the price oil, something the industry has dreamed of for decades -- a floor for the price of WTI, makes CAPEX plans so much easier

• WTI is back over $80; hopefully investors took advantage of the temporary, recent pullback in the price of WTI:
• with regard to the oil industry's response to Biden's comments about the administration's fossil fuel policies, the oil industry PR spokesperson is tone-deaf and will lose the argument; 
• DVN: up 1.72% in early trading; up $1.11; trading at $68.61; well off its 52-week high; pays an incredible 7.53%. 
• COP: up 1.54% in early trading; up $1.91; trading at $126.16; well off its 52-week high; pays  4.12%.

For investors: three top energy stocks to buy right now.

• XOM: a dividend aristocrat;
• DVN: a cash-rich company with an attractive dividend
• the company blazed a trail when it announced a fixed-plus-variable dividend policy, which allows investors to reap bigger rewards when oil prices spike.
• CNBC analysts added more; link here.
  
• OXY: reeduced debt --> more money for shareholders

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.  

***************************
Back to the Bakken

The Far Side: link here.

Active rigs: 41.

WTI: $80.59.

Natural gas: $7.195.

Thursday, December 1, 2022: 3 for the month, 112 for the quarter, 656 for the year.
38174, conf, CLR, LCU Foster FIU 11-28H,
37964, conf, Enerplus, Omelet 151-94-16B-21H,
29285, conf, Slawson, Vixen Federal 4-19-30TFH,

Wednesday, November 30, 2022: 72 for the month, 109 for the quarter, 654 for the year.
38844, conf, Slawson, Vixen Federal 7-19-30TFH,
38819, conf, CLR, Bonneville 7-26HSL,
38728, conf, Kraken, Raymond 16-21 2H,
38173, conf, CLR, LCU Foster FIU 10-28H1,
37965, conf, Enerplus, Ham 151-94-16B-21H,
37945, conf, CLR, Brangus FIU 14-11H2,

RBN Energy: prolific renewables are key to Pacific Northwest hydrogen hub plans. Archived. Hydrogen is tracked here.

Today, we turn our attention to a pair of hydrogen-hub proposals in the Pacific Northwest, both of which focus on the region’s potential for producing clean hydrogen via electrolyzers powered by renewables — especially electricity from large hydroelectric plants in Washington state and Oregon, but also from new wind farms and solar facilities that would be purpose-built to power clean-hydrogen production. Washington is far and away the U.S.’s leading producer of hydropower, generating more than 70 million megawatt-hours (MWh) from its rivers and dams in 2021, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Oregon was #2 in hydropower, with just over 28 million MWh last year (edging out #3 New York, home of Niagara Falls). And yes, despite Seattle and Portland’s reputation for long streaks of cloudy, rainy weather, many other parts of Washington, Oregon and Idaho are typically dry and sunny — windy too — offering a lot of potential for solar and wind power.

As we said earlier, there are two separate but overlapping hub proposals in the Pacific Northwest. One is advanced by the Pacific Northwest Hydrogen Association (PNWH₂), a public-private partnership led by the state governments in Washington and Oregon that also includes representatives from industry, universities and colleges, labor unions and Native American tribal interests, among others. The other proposal is being advanced by Obsidian Renewables, a Lake Oswego, OR-based solar developer that has been working with a range of port-agency, labor and tribal representatives on what it calls the Obsidian Pacific Northwest Hydrogen Hub — we’ll refer to it as the Obsidian plan. (Obsidian, by the way, is a dark natural glass formed by the cooling of molten lava — Oregon has lots of the stuff.)

Obsidian Renewables took the unusual step of making its hydrogen-hub concept paper public — few, if any, others have — and, given that the proposal is quite specific, we’ll begin with a description of it, then follow that up with a more general look at PNWH₂’s plan.

Investor Talk -- November 30, 2022

Investors.

Today at Bloomberg:

• cotton: has crashed; wholesale prices down almost 50% in the past six months
• in two years through May, 2022: cotton had more than tripled to $1.58 / pound
• US clothing inflation peaked at 6.5% earlier this year, only the fifth time in 75 years that it’s run above 6% (the others being in 1951, 1974, 1980 and 1991). Cotton wasn’t the only reason; higher shipping costs also contributed.
• coffee: is also crashing
• The reason? Forecasts for a better crop next year in Brazil, the world’s top producer.
• European LNG:  Liquefied natural gas imports from Russia are up about 40% in a year, and the EU is paying record amounts to keep them coming.
• temperatures are poised to plunge next month in northern Europe as cold air blows in from the Arctic in what will be the first proper winter test for the region’s fragile energy systems.  
• copper is poised for its biggest monthly advance since April 2021, as investors bet China may shift from Covid Zero policies and boost demand in the top metal-consuming economy. 
• gold headed for its best month since May 2021 after the dollar fell. 
• electric cars in the US have a charging problem, with not enough stations and spotty equipment, according to the Wall Street Journal. 
• The government is pouring billions of dollars into developing highway charging networks, but businesses aren’t sure how they’ll make money, and some rural stations could operate at a loss for years. 
• I think the writing is no the wall how this will play out
  

Then this, link here:

Elon Musk: his comments and the tone of his comments suggest his twitter revenue may be in deep trouble; certainly Tesla is in trouble. Apple accounts for 50% of twitter ad revenue, according to one source.

Market:

• so much is "on sale." On social media, so many are complaining about the market;
• however, if one has a 30-year horizon, looking good for investors;
  
• in addition, the market is very volatile: great for traders;
• what's not to like;
  
• folks seem to forget that once the Fed pivoted to higher interest rates, and at the aggressiveness this time around, the market would take 550+ days to recover, based on historical data;
  
• we are at day 243
• we have at least 200 more days, based on historical data, of nice buying opportunities
• have a plan
• stick to it

AAPL: only one stock as an investment interests me now -- AAPL

• "interests me": doesn't mean I'm buying; simply means I'm fascinated about what's going on with AAPL right now
  
• I'm sticking with my plan (posted numerous times)
• I thought I would never get the opportunity to buy more AAPL

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 

Covid-19 Snapshot -- November 30, 2022

mRNA: this guy gets it.

Covid-19: like seasonal flu, will probably be with us "forever" -- Pfizer. Clearly no big deal. 

But look at the graphs: posted down below.

Covid-19 deaths per million:

• South Dakota: 3,500
• US: 3,339
• North Dakota: 3,132

Covid-19 cases per million, one-third of the nation has "had" Covid-19:

• North Dakota: 360,471
• US: 303,802
• South Dakota: 302,590

Covid-19 mortality rate:

• US: 1.10%
• South Dakota: 1.157%.
• North Dakota: 0.869%

China's mortality rate during current surge: 0.025%.

US vaccinated, link here:

• at least one dose, percent:
• only Wyoming less than 60%; at 59.2%
• Massachusetts, DC: >95% (CDC caps at 95% to account for variability among vaccines)
• most states running: 70 - 80 percent
• fully vaccinated, does not include booster, percent:
• Wyoming: 51.9%
• all other states running 60 - 80 percent; some exceptions
• at least one booster:
• New England states running above 40%
• rest of nation: running around 20- 40% 
• North Dakota: 25.8
• South Dakota: 28.1%

***************************************
The Graphs

The graphs: 

Inflation Watch -- Flat-Screen Televisions -- November 29, 2022

The other day I posted this but did not include the price of the "advertised" television:

Now that Thanksgiving is over and turkeys recede into the distant background, we can talk about inflation where it really counts: big-screen televisions. Look at inflation here.

So, what was the price of that Amazon Fire TV Omni QLED Series 4K? From the linked article:

I’ve been testing Amazon’s new 65-inch Fire TV Omni QLED Series 4K UHD smart TV. If you’re a casual TV watcher like me, the new Fire TV is easy to use and has great picture quality for the price.

And speaking of price, at the time of publication it’s on sale for $550, about $250 off its launch price, making it cheaper than last year’s model that Amazon still sells. There’s also a more expensive 75-inch model that costs $1,100.

But here in Texas, one can get a  65-inch flat-screen television for a whole lot less, and not even on sale. At Walmart, November 28, 2022, "everyday low price” at $378 vs $550 vs $800:

By the way, there's a reason why these televisions are so inexpensive, but I'll let readers think that out for themselves.

The TCL television pictured above: 

TCL at wiki:

TCL Technology (originally an abbreviation for Telephone Communication Limited) is a Chinese electronics company headquartered in Huizhou, Guangdong Province.

It designs, develops, manufactures, and sells consumer products including television sets, mobile phones, air conditioners, washing machines, refrigerators, and small electrical appliances.

In 2010, it was the world's 25th-largest consumer electronics producer. It became the second-largest television manufacturer by market share by 2019.

On 7 February 2020, TCL Corporation changed its name to TCL Technology.

Devon -- An Update, As It Were But Probably Nothing New -- November 29, 2022

As Twitter gets weirder and weirder (or is it, more and more weird), it behooves folks to be very, very circumspect in whom to follow. I follow only oil-related contributors with a few exceptions. I follow no politicians. Often someone I follow re-tweets a post originally tweeted by someone else. If it pertains to energy or oil, I am generally fine with that. However, a pet peeve is when the re-tweet is off-subject, especially political.

I assume that's how a lot of folks feel about the MDW blog: it's great as long as it sticks to the Bakken but the other stuff -- especially the political stuff -- is really, really unwelcome.

So, as Twitter gets more and more weird (and it some cases downright dumb and dumber) I find myself looking for new contributors to follow.

Devon Energy - blue check validated -- seems to be an account I will enjoy following. First link here. That was a "search." Under that "search": Devon Energy; Rock Creek Freak; Emily Patsy; and, then many others that we all know: Rystad Energy, and Josh Young, for example.

Surinam Update -- November 29, 2022

Guyana-Surinam is occasionally tracked here.

This is a non-story but it is posted:

• for the archivees; and,
• for the reason, it's a pretty good summary of operations to date.

*************************
Price Watch

Coke: just weeks ago, two-liter bottles of Coca-Cola were running $2.58 (Walmart) and $2.59 (Target).
yesterday I noted these two-liter bottles were priced at $1.88 (Target)
today: at our favorite high-end store where prices are slightly more expensive than Target, these two-liter bottles were priced at $1.69

Lettuce: after weeks, maybe two months, of being able too find iceberg lettuce anywhere, it finally appeared at Walmart; Target still does not have iceberg lettuce though it has a small amount of relatively expensive romaine lettuce

Chicken: apparently dropping in price faster than the price of used cars.

• mixed news for Costco, I assume
• it now seems a no-brainer to buy grocery store rotisserie than cooking one yourself

One Last One -- Then Going Biking -- Apple Store Opening At "Massive" American Dream Mall Outside NYC -- November 29, 2022

We're going to hit a high of 77°F today; partly cloudy but no rain. Perfect for biking.

Link here to the Apple story.

American Dream is the second-largest shopping mall in the U.S. behind the Mall of America in Minnesota.

Opened in 2019, the three-million-square-foot shopping destination has several indoor attractions, including the Nickelodeon Universe amusement park, DreamWorks Water Park, a year-round indoor skiing and snowboarding resort, an NHL-sized ice skating rink, a burger restaurant owned by YouTube star MrBeast, and more.

Apple's grand opening date at American Dream was first spotted by Michael Steeber, who recently released an iPhone app tracking all of the company's retail locations.

**********************
The Book Page

The best history of the story of the Arabic numeral zero (0) that I have found to date:

Fantastic Numbers And Where To Find Them, Antonio Padilla, c. 2022, pages 155 to 173. 

The book: part of my summeer, 2022, reading program. 

Another Open-Book Test For Investors: COP - Qatar Sign Off Fifteen-Year Deal To Supply Germany With LNG Starting In 2026 -- November 29, 2022

Conversion

Link here:

COP/Qatar to deliver:

• two billion tonnes = 17,746,228,927 boe
• 17,746,228,927 / 365 = 48,619,805 boepd
• rounding 50 million boepd

Germany consumption:

• Germany used 100 billion cubic meters of natural gas in 2021
• 100 billion / 365 = 273,972,603 cubic meters / day
• rounding = 300 million cubic meters / day
• one cubic meter = 0.4049 tonnes
• 273,972,603 x 0.4049 = 110,931,507 tonnes / day
• 110,931,507 tonnes = 984,307,959 boe

So, assuming the math is correct, feel free to fact-check:

50 million boepd / 984,307,959 boepd = 4.9%.

That seems reasonable. Now why could the journalist not have done this? We always get these articles without context, or denominators.

Updates 

Later, 11:54 a.m. CT, November 29, 2022, link here:

Original Post

I may have to re-think my "new money allocation" plan. See below.

To review:

• a rolling 30-year horizon
• new money allocation (slight change in past few weeks):
• 35%: Buffet, blue-chip; dividend-paying;
• current favorites: DE, CAT
• more AAPL only when below $155 / share
• 30%: beaten-down tech (mostly semiconductors)
• 20%: energy (mostly oil; those with announced focus on shareholder return)
• 10%: mRNA (mostly Big Pharma)
• 5%: Daimler (might be considered part of Buffett, blue-chip)
• invest new money twice a month regardless of overall market conditions
• first week of the month
• third week of the month
  

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.  

COP / Qatar: 15-year deal to supply Germany with LNG.

• to start in 2026;
• link here to Reuters:

The deal, the first of its kind to Europe from Qatar's North Field expansion project, will provide Germany with 2 million tonnes of LNG annually, arriving from Ras Laffan in Qatar to Germany's northern LNG terminal of Brunsbuettel.

"(The agreements) mark the first ever long-term LNG supply agreement to Germany, with a supply period that extends for at least 15 years, thus contributing to Germany's long-term energy security," Saad al-Kaabi said in a joint news conference with ConocoPhillips CEO Ryan Lance.

Favorite two words in that press release: "at least."

COP today: 

Covid-19: Right Now It's An "Asian Problem" -- November 29, 2022

Data links. 

Coronavirus: statistics. 

Japan, out of control?

Global, sorted by new cases, as reported two days ago:

• Japan leads the list, almost double the next country down, South Korea

Global, new deaths, single day, two days ago:

• Japan: 142
• Russia: 51
• Canada: 44
• South Korea: 39
• Indonesia: 35
• Taiwan: 25
• Philippines: 24
• USA: 20
• Hong Kong: 20
• Chile: 20
• .
• .
• .
• .
• China: 1 -- yup. One. One less than two. One more than zero.

Boeing Customer Goes Broke Is The Headline -- Orders Weren't Going To Get Filled Anyway -- A Non-Story -- Novmeber 29, 2022

Blame it on the bossa nova. 

Being reported elsewhere that "a Boeing customer" went broke / bankrupt.

It's a non-story.

The orders were never going to be filled anyway.

Here's one article on the story

CargoLogicAir, the U.K.-based all-cargo airline affiliated with Russia’s Volga-Dnepr Group, appears to be officially going out of business, collateral damage from the invasion of Ukraine.

The airline, which flew two Boeing 747-400 freighters out of London airports, ceased operations earlier this year after the U.K. government sanctioned majority shareholder Alexey Isaykin for signing a deal with the city of Moscow for Volga-Dnepr Airlines to maintain supply chain connectivity with countries in Asia and the Middle East.

On Wednesday, CargoLogic Air (CLA) appointed corporate restructuring firm Buchler Phillips to administer its insolvency ....

CLA was a small carrier, but the grounding of two extra-large freighters is part of the story behind the shortage of cargo capacity compared to pre-COVID times and why rates haven’t dropped more with weak demand. Sister company CargoLogic Germany, with a fleet of four Boeing 737 freighters, has also been grounded after filing for bankruptcy protection in May. And AirBridgeCargo, Volga-Dnepr’s scheduled airline that flew a large fleet of Boeing 747 freighters, has been shut down along with subsidiary Atran Airways.

Established in 2015, CLA had a spotty history. It reduced operations in 2019 under weak market conditions and closed down in early 2020 but regained its operating certificate in April when the pandemic created intense demand for freighter service. CLA employed about 130 before the sanctions and turned a profit in 2020. 

CLR's Bang Wells -- November 29, 2022

Disclaimer: in a long note like this, there will be content and typographical errors. It's for my benefit only. If this is important to you, go the source. I remain inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken.

Tracked here.

All CLR Bang wells updated two days ago.

Very, very nice wells; perhaps not monster wells but better than what we saw in the early days of the boom.

Number of Bang wells: I count fourteen (14). When I first started the blog in 2007 / 2009, I told folks that if you "had" one well in the Bakken, you would eventually have four, probably eight, possibly twelve and perhaps even more than that. The MDW blog was the first to "predict" / note that. 

Halo effect noted in the field. This well was refracked, 6/7/22 - 6/15/22: 7.7 million gallons of water; moderate frack; 89.1% fresh water; 10.2% proppant in that frack. 

Original report:

• spud: 1/12/2007
• td: 20,619'
• td: 2/21/2008
• days total drilling: 40.
• days drilling lateral: 14.
• kick-off:
• began January 29, 2008
• completed build on February 2, 2008
• drilled out of casing oon February 7, 2008

Open-hole frack:

• on/about March 12, 2008
• 1,646 bbls of water
• 70,067 pounds of sand

Stripper well: June 16, 2014.

Comment:

• this same well -- if drilled in the Bakken today -- expectations --
• spud to td: seven days, maybe six
• vertical: 24 - 36 hours
• curve build (kick off): 12 hours
• lateral: three days
• frack: seven days
• 8 million gallons of water
• 30 - 60 stages
  

Recent production and updated cumulative production:

• 16797, 108, CLR, Bang 1-33H, Cedar Coulee, t4/08; cum 237K 8/22; huge halo effect;
  

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	9-2022	5	1742	1675	5566	2183	2179	2
BAKKEN	8-2022	1	51	79	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2022	17	3907	4225	1511	4824	4667	0
BAKKEN	3-2022	17	5069	4818	2902	5191	4979	0
BAKKEN	2-2022	24	6372	6654	2750	8244	7946	0
BAKKEN	1-2022	31	11550	11608	5835	14730	14311	0
BAKKEN	12-2021	31	16004	16229	8969	19237	18818	0
BAKKEN	11-2021	30	20533	20341	19563	22195	21790	0
BAKKEN	10-2021	6	3319	3019	5476	3288	3207	0
BAKKEN	9-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2021	1	100	0	1	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2021	30	457	586	117	888	496	0
BAKKEN	5-2021	31	500	524	82	959	540	0

The Incredible "Waffle House / Hearty Breakfast" Pad Wells In The Antelope Oil Field -- Enerplus -- November 29, 2022

The Enerplus pads in the Bakken.

Hearty Breakfast (Enerplus, Antelope). In some places referred to as the "Waffle House" pad.

The Antelope: perhaps the best field in the Bakken.  

Enerplus is reporting out its "Hearty Breakfast" pad wells this week and next.

Look at the initial production of these wells from the Hearty Breakfast pad:

• 37964, loc, ERF,  Omelet 151-94-16B-21H, Antelope:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
9-2022	35104	50732
8-2022	62154	90239
7-2022	16150	25668
6-2022	22210	30175

• 37962, loc, ERF,  Sausage 151-94-16B-21H, Antelope, no production data,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
9-2022	70501	98008
8-2022	18354	24281
7-2022	37759	47114
6-2022	6909	9387

•  37961, loc, ERF, Waffle 151-94-16A-21H, Antelope:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
9-2022	15248	21027
8-2022	13763	23107
7-2022	19792	38250
6-2022	48122	65381

• 37965, conf, Enerplus, Ham 151-94-16B-21H, Antelope,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
9-2022	9592	13363
8-2022	43666	64108
7-2022	3381	5725
6-2022	37704	51226
5-2022	0	776

• 37966, conf, Enerplus, Bacon 151-94-16B-21H, Antelope,
  

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
9-2022	37046	55889
8-2022	42944	63305
7-2022	2317	3807
6-2022	64942	88234
5-2022	0	204

On My Radar Scope Today -- November 29, 2022

Tee leaves: President Biden will go down in history as one of the better US presidents. 

• depends how one defines "better"
• "more effective" than many US presidents?
• more statesmanlike?

The impending rail strike.

The triplepidemic: the seasonal flu, Covid-19, and RSV "chest cold" data is absolutely fascinating

• Covid surging in China, Japan
• mortality and serious disease from Covid in China? About 0.025%. Let that sink in.
• Japan: huge surge in cases; tell me again the vaccine program in the US is not working
• seasonal flu is particularly severe this year -- CNBC. Hospitals feeling the pressure ... again

NFL Monday night: pathetic

• Thursday night: some great matchups
• what changed? Amazon owns NFL TNF
• Jeff Bezos: well-played

Pet peeve: blaming high prices on some food items on inflation;
in fact, other forces at work, though inflation pays a role
examples: iceberg lettuce; to some extent romaine lettuce; chickens; eggs

Coca-cola:

• for the past several months, a year? Price of 2-liter Coke:
• Target: $2.59
• Walmart: $2.58
• yesterday, Walmart: $1.88. What just happened.

Great Britain:

• wind not blowing
• renewables providing almost no electricity for the Brits right now

Apple vs Twitter spat:

• probably not good for either
• but mainstream media missing the big story
• has to do with revenue
• reminder: Apple destroyed Meta because of Apple's privacy rules

Tech, Russia:

• the country's largest tech company exits Russia
• winner: certainly not Russia

LNG, Europe: the story keeps getting bigger and bigger

• winner: US. Huge story. Few following the story.

WTI: recovering.

****************************
Back to the Bakken

The Far Side: link here.

Active rigs: 41.

WTI: 78.66.

Natural gas: $7.268.

Wednesday, November 30, 2022: 72 for the month, 109 for the quarter, 654 for the year.
38844, conf, Slawson, Vixen Federal 7-19-30TFH,
38819, conf, CLR, Bonneville 7-26HSL,
38728, conf, Kraken, Raymond 16-21 2H,
38173, conf, CLR, LCU Foster FIU 10-28H1,
37965, conf, Enerplus, Ham 151-94-16B-21H,
37945, conf, CLR, Brangus FIU 14-11H2,

Tuesday, November 29, 2022: 66 for the month, 103 for the quarter, 648 for the year.
38921, conf, CLR, Medicine Hole 3-27HSL,
38843, conf, Slawson, PhatKat Federal 7-18-7TFH,
37947, conf, CLR, Brangus FIU 12-11H1, 
37946, conf, CLR, Brangus FIU 13-11H,

RBN Energy: more Gulf Coast LNG export capacity is on its way; where will the feedgas come from? Archived.

The first wave of Gulf Coast liquefaction and LNG export facilities was well-timed, coming as it did with fast-rising natural gas supplies in the Lower 48 and a slew of pipeline reversals and expansions that enabled billions of cubic feet a day of low-cost Marcellus-Utica gas supplies to reach Gulf Coast markets. Permian and Haynesville supplies helped too. The next wave of LNG development, which will kick off in earnest in 2024, may not go quite as smoothly, however. Global demand for LNG is there — there’s little doubt about that. But the next phase of export capacity growth may well be hemmed in by domestic factors, namely the timing and availability of gas supplies to the Gulf Coast due to potentially serious midstream constraints. In today’s RBN blog, we look at where the feedgas supply is likely to come from and what that will mean for pricing dynamics.

I Got Up At 3:00 A.M. To Post This — November 29, 2022

 https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1597106643329687552

Monthly Electricity Bill -- This Month? No Conservation Efforts -- November 28, 2022

Our monthly utility bill -- we don't have natural gas, only electricity.

I purposely did not do anything to conserve electricity. I am showering once or twice every day now that I am in the fitness center so much. In addition, washing clothes more frequently, not worried about consolidating large loads to save energy.

Here's our most recent electricity bill, for October, 2022, and one can see we used quite a bit more electricity that the previous two months.

Including fees, taxes, etc.,  works out to 14.5 cents / kWh. 

Fourteenpointfive cents. 

Average retail rate by state.

One New Permit; Eight Permits Renewed; Rigs Back Up To 41 -- November 28, 2022

Active rigs: 41.

WTI: $76.32.

Natural gas: $6.712.

One new permit, #39435:

• Operator: Koda Resources
• Field: Daneville (Divide)
• Comments: 
• Koda has a permit for a Stout well, lot 2 section 6-160-102; 
• to be sited 565 FNL and 2145 FEL

Eight permits renewed:

• Petro-Hunt (6): six USA permits in McKenzie County; five in SESE 3-153-95 and one in lot 4 section 4-153-95;
• Iron Oil Operating: one Buffalo permit in McKenzie County, NENE 17-148-100;
• Slawson: one Challenger Federal permit in Mountrail County; NWNWW 29-151-92;

Enerplus canceled one permit:

• 37315, PA, Enerplus, Brugh Bear 2-11H, McKenzie County.
  

Focus On Fracking -- November 27, 2022

Link here.

Seasonal Flu -- 2022 - 2023 Season -- Update -- November 28, 2022

Updates

November 29, 2022: link here.

Original Post 

Link here.

*****************
Triplepidemic

 

 Link here.