Does Something "Bad" Happen If We Call "It" A "Recession"? July 28, 2022

It is what it is. 

I'm just going to sit here, watch the golf tournament, and explore some new Bakken wells. 

Good luck to all. 

Lots happening.

Some reminders to newbies to the blog:

1. At the top of the blog, the tab to the far left says "Welcome." It's also where you will find the full disclaimer for the blog.

2. Most important: this is not an investment site.

3. The daily posts are not important. It is the archives that are the most important and what the blog is all about. The archives are all at the sidebar at the right. I do daily posts to keep me from getting bored, but the important "stuff" is archived at the sidebar at the right.

4. I am (almost) always serious about the Bakken. No hidden agenda except that I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken. I post a lot of data about a lot of wells. I post the initial production data for absolutely every Bakken well. Every well. Readers constantly remind me that the good wells I report are not typical of Bakken wells.

5. I am not aware of directly investing in or directly holding shares in any pure-Bakken play company. It's possible I do -- but I don't recall directly investing in any pure-Bakken play company.

6. "The million dollar way" URL used to be simply "milliondollarway" but was changed to "themilliondollarway" several years ago. 

7. "The million dollar way" has nothing to do with investing. It refers to "US Highway 2" that led out of Williston, ND, when I was growing up. It was my literal and figurative road that I took whenever I left Williston. It was called "the million dollar way" by the locals due to automobile dealerships and oil service companies that lined the highway.

8. Comments are heavily moderated.

9. My posts are littered with typographical and content errors. I appreciate folks not telling me about typographical errors if they do not affect the content. When I find errors, I will generally correct them. If you read something that seems wrong, it probably is wrong. In those cases, go to the source to see what the "real" story might be.

10. The original blog was not monetized. Then, as a suggestion from one of my granddaughters I monetized the blog. I had no control over the ads. When I was slapped on the wrist by the blog app owner for something I posted or linked or who knows what, I discontinued the monetization. It wasn't worth the aggravation. I was never told what I posted violated "community standards." 

11. Anything else? I suppose, but this is as good a start as any. For the rest, see the full disclaimer.

Book Of The Week -- July 28, 2022

Parting shot: from what little I've read, the $369-billion climate bill is just fine. Not to worry. And the $250-billion "chip" bill. Total: $619 billion. I incorrectly said these two bills rounded to one-trillion dollars. I was not even close.

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The Book Page

Summer of reading tracked here.

This week, just arrived from Amazon today. "Free" with "points."

• Fantastic Numbers and Where To Find Them: A Cosmic Quest From Zero To Infinity, Antonio Padilla, c. 2022; published July 26, 2022.

CLR Looking To Put In 18 Wells In Two Drilling Units -- July 18, 2022

See first comment and reply. The CLR Anna wells are tracked here. The CLR Anna wells are in a 1280-acre unit drilling unit to the east, sections 27/34-154-100.

From August, 2022, NDIC hearing dockets, screenshot of case 29535:

Thursday, August 25, 2022

Case 29535 (not a permit), CLR, eighteen wells -- 

• Catwalk and/or Last Chance-Bakken
• create/establish i) two overlapping 1920-acre units, sections 28 and 33-154-100 and section 4-153-100; and sections 29/32-153-100 and 5-153-100; eight wells on each of the two proposed overlapping 1920-acre unit, 16 wells; and, ii) an overlapping 3840-acre unit, sections 28/29/32/33-154-100 and sections 4/5-153-100; two wells or a total of 18 wells in this area 

August, 2022, Hearing Dockets Posted

Link here. 

The NDIC hearing dockets are tracked here.  

The usual disclaimer applies. As usual this is done very quickly and using shorthand for my benefit. There will be factual and typographical errors on this page. Do not quote me on any of this. It's for my personal use to help me better understand the Bakken. Do not read it. If you do happen to read it, do not make any investment, financial, job, relationship, or travel plans based on anything you read here or think you may have read here. If this stuff is important to you, and I doubt that it is, but if it is, go to the source.

Wednesday, August 24, 2022

Cases, not permits:

• 29507, BR, Crooked Creek-Bakken; an overlapping 2560-acre unit; sections 15/16/21/22-143-97; one well; Dunn County;
  
• 29508, Ovintiv, Ranch Creek-Bakken, a standup 1920-acre unit; sections 18/19/30-146-98; four wells; McKenzie County;
  
• 29509, Oasis, Painted Woods and/or Ft Buford-Bakken; a standup 1920-acre unit, sections 1/12/13-153-104, four wells; Williams County.
  
• 29510, Oasis, Painted Woods and/or Ft Buford-Bakken, an overlapping 3840-acre unit; sections 1/2/13-153--104 and sections 6/7/18-153-103; one well; Williams County.
  
• 29511, Oasis, Painted Woods and/or Ft Buford-Bakken, an overlapping 3840-acre unit; sections 1/2/11/12/13/14-153-104, one well; Williams County
  
• 29512, Oasis, Ft Buford-Bakken, a standup 1920-acre unit; sections 24/25/36-153-104, four wells; Williams County;
  
• 29513, Oasis, Ft Buford-Bakken, an overlapping 3840-acre unit, sections 24/25/36-153-104 and sections 19/30/31-153-104, one well; Williams County
  
• 29514, Hess, Tioga-Bakken; a standup 1920-acre unit; sections 2/11/14-157-95, seven wells; Williams County;
  
• 29515, Hess, Tioga and/or West Tioga-Bakken, an overlapping 2/3/10/11/14/15-157-95-157-95; one well; Williams County.
  
• 29516, MRO, Bailey and/or Lake Ilo-Bakken; an overlappinig 2560-acre unit; sectioons 17/18/19/20-145-93; one well; Dunn County
  
• 29517, Hess, pooling,
• 29518, Hess, pooling,
• 29519, Grayson Mill Operating, commingling;
• 29520, Oasis, pooling,
• 29521, Oasis, pooling,
• 29522, Oasis, pooling
• 29523, Oasis, pooling,
• 29524, Oasis, pooling,
• 29525, Ovintiv, commingling,
• 29526, Whiting, pooling,
• 29527, Whiting, pooling,
• 29528, BR, Crooked Creek-Bakken; a standup 1280-acre unit; sections 15/22-143-97; three wells; Dunn County;
  
• 29529, BR, pooling
• 29530, SWD
• 29531, conversion, #8662, to freshwater well
  

Wednesday, August 24, 2022
Supplemental

Cases, not permits:

• 29532, Louis and Allene Nelson, conversion of well (#13411) to freshwater well.
• 29533, Leslie C and Shelly M Haugen, conversion of well (#15487) to freshwater well

Thursday, August 25, 2022

Cases, not permits:

• 29534, CLR, Little Knife and/or Rattlesnake Point-Bakken, two overlapping 2560-acre units, one: section 36-147-97, section 31-147-96, section 1-146-97, section 6-146-96; section 6-147-96, sectino 12/13-146-97, sections 7/18-146-96, two wells, Dunn County;
  
• 29535, CLR, eighteen wells, Catwalk and/or Last Chance-Bakken; i) establish two overlapping 1920-acre spacing units, sections 28/33-154-100 and section 4-153-100; and sections 29/32-154-100 and section 5-153-100; eight wells on each of the two units; ii) an overlapping 3840-acre unit composed of those same six sections, two wells, Williams; 18 wells. See this post.
  
• 29536, Enerplus, Eagle Nest-Bakken, an overlapping 2560-acre unit, sectiiooons 25/36-149-95 and sections 30/31-149-94; one well; McKenzie County;
  
• 29537, WPX, South Fork and/or Heart Butte-Bakken, i) an overlapping 2560-acre unit, sections 9/10/15/16-149-92, one well; ii) an overlapping 3840-acre units, sections 1/12/13-148-93 and sections 6/7/18-148-92, one well; two wells total; Dunn
  
• 29538, Mercury Resources, LLC, Madison formation, one horizontal well; see this note.
  
• 29539, Crescent Point Energy, Blue Ridge-Bakken, an overlapping 2560-acree unit, sections 26/27/34/35-159-100; one well; Williams County;
  
• 29540, WPX, Heart Butte-Bakken,  an existing 1920-acre unit; sections 9/16/21-149-92, five wells; Dunn County;
  
• 29541, WPX, pooling,
• 29542, WPX, pooling,
• 29543, WPX, pooling,
• 29544, WPX, pooling,
• 29545, Crescent Point Energy, pooling,
• 29546, Crescent Point Energy, pooling,
• 29547, CLR, Little Knife-Bakken, an existing 1280-acre unit; sections 1/12-146-97, nine wells; Dunn County;
  
• 29548, CLR, pooling,
• 29549, CLR, pooling,
• 29550, CLR, pooling,
• 29551, CLR, pooling,
• 29552, CLR, pooling,
• 29553, KODA Resources, pooling,
• 29554, KODA Resources, pooling,
• 29555, KODA Resources, pooling,
• 29556, Hunt, SWD
• 29557, Hunt, SWD

End-Of-Day Report -- July 28, 2022

AAPL: huge beat.

AMZN: huge. No slowdown in consumer demand. 

AMZN: I think this is the story everyone is missing:

To put that in perspective, if I recall correctly, Apple only has $179 billion in cash. 

ROKU: down 26%. Streaming wars starting to sort out winners and loser.

• third (?) biggest holding in ARKK

Color me as in "tickled pink." 

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OTHERS

CLR: press release

• cash flow from operations: $1.74 billion
• free cash flow: $1.23 billion
• quarterly dividend: 28 cents, unchanged
• net income: $1.21 billion; adjusted, $1.25 billion;
• EPS: $3.35; adjusted $3.47

AMZN: 

• earnings suggests my thoughts on Walmart's earnings were exactly on target

INTC:

• down 7% after hours
• semi-conductors / chips starting to sort themselves out
• remember: huge "chip bill" just passed
  

CMCSA:

• also down 9%; not good 
• streaming wars starting to sort themselves out

Refiners, link here: 

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $97.24.

Natural gas: $8.210

Active rigs: 45, according to NDIC, today's daily activity report.

One new permit, #39116:

• Operator: Hunt -- SWD
• Field: Ross (Mountrail County)
• Comments: none

Re-entry:

• 38351, Resonance Exploration, Resonance Wilmot 8-27H, SENE 27-162-80; 1437 FNL and 271 FEL, South Westhope; 

Eleven permits renewed:

• Rimrock (5): all in Dunn County -- Amethyst, Citrine, Emerald, Ruby, and Sapphire
• Slawson (4): all in Mountrail County -- four Mole permits
• Bowline (2): two Shaffer permits

So, We're In A Recession -- July 28, 2022

So, we're in a recession, the Fed raises rates 75 basis points, unemployment at record lows, and US stock market surges. For the archives.

The Fed raises rates 75 basis points and the Biden administration has a one-trillion-dollar stimulus package ready to be signed. For the archives.

Shortest recession on record. Two quarters. Biden administration apologists are calling for 1Q22 to be a "mulligan."

Hershey With Dividend Increase -- July 28, 2022

History here. Was $0.901, or 90.1 cents / share.

New dividend: $1.036.

Let's see:

• $1.036-0.901 = 1.036-0.901 = 0.135 / 0.901 = 15%? increase.

This goes along with news from Coca-Cola, and McDonalds,  two things:

• brand-name companies are able to take advantage of "inflation"'; increase prices while holding lid on own costs;
• consumers willing to "pay up" for "their brand"
  

Also, perhaps the US consumer is not "tapped out."

Also suggests Walmart's quarter was a one-off for Walmart and mismanagment of inventory control (some of it / much of it, perhaps, beyond their control).

But I wouldn't let Walmart's 2Q22 numbers influence my investment strategy. 

By the way, how is WMT doing today? Up almost 3%; up $3.55; trading at $130. It appears there was a buying opportunity on July 26, 2022.

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Politics

At this link, if you scroll down, you can find the video itself.

It's amazing how folks tried to figure this out when all one had to do was look at the tie.

This was at least two different clips spliced together. Nothing to see here. Simply a political video. Give it a rest. Just one of the reasons I tire of political "stuff."

If the political "stuff" offers me no "actionable information" for investing, I really have minimal interest.

For The Archives -- Lithium-Sulfur Batteries -- July 28, 2022

This seems a bit bogus but we will post it for the archives and see how this plays out.

Link here.

Lithium-sulfur batteries?

Sodium-sulfur batteries?

After decades of study and billions of dollars spent on R&D for EV batteries, I have a natural (healthy?) skepticism of "an accidental discovery."

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The Apple Page

Link here.

Apple is opening a new development site in Jerusalem, Israel, to develop new Apple silicon chips for future Macs.

Over time, chip companies will marginalize China. 

Off The Net -- Going Swimming -- Back Around 11:00 A.M. CT -- July 28, 2022

TTE: profit more than doubles on high oil and gas prices. Link here.

Beyond Meat: McDonald's ends trial in Canada. Old story but had not previously posted. Beyond Meat down another 4% at open.

Ford: huge earnings report. Will raise dividend from 10 cents to 15 cents. Speaks volumes on company's cash flow, and expectations going forward. GM does not pay a dividend. 

Dow: opens up 86 points. All indices green?

WTI: $98.98.

Natural gas: $8.606.

VOD: comes out of Saudi Arabia today -- link here.

Oil, supply, demand: everyone is on same page of music: CVX, TTE, and Shell. Link here.

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Back to the Shale Revolution

How about those rigs? Rig counts, Y charts:

• New Mexico rig count: 109
• North Dakota rig count: 36
  
• Texas rig count: 365
  

How about that production?

• New Mexico: 1.5 million bopd, link here.
• North Dakota: 1.1 million bopd.
• Texas: 5.0 million bopd, link here.

Gasoline demand, link here:

• the overall chart improves slightly, but,
• the data going forward looks really, really good

Natural gas fill rate, link here:

• I don't think it will happen, but it certainly appears working gas in underground storage could drop below the five-year minimum.

GDP 2Q22: Down 0.9% -- First Look 2Q22 GDP

Updates

Later, after GDP number released:

• MasterCard: earnings, huge numbers; crushed it; certainly doesn't support recessionary fears

Original Post

This would be a great time to re-listen to Jay Powell's remarks yesterday.

• some say he was dovish going forward;
• some say he was hawkish going forward;
• should he have hiked 100 basis points?
• should he have raised "inter-meeting"? 
• my take: this suggests that Jay Powell is not as worried about the economy as other might be
• raising 100 basis points and an "inter-meeting" raise would have sent a huge negative message, a message perhaps more negative than the message the negative GDP is sending
  

Down 9/10th of one percent. 

• criteria: pervasive, pronounced, prolonged
  
• much of this was from less federal government spending
• but "inflation reduction act" plus "chips act" will add another trillion dollars in spending
• just in time for election
• SOS: Solyndra on steroids
  
• White House yesterday: not necessarily
  

Dow: reaction: from down 59 to down 95 ( futures)

• after ten minutes, back to about 60 points down;
• wow! twenty minutes later, Dow implied open goes positive 
• half hour later: back where we were before the GDP was announced: down 45 points, Dow futures
  

Ford: beat, huge, earnings, link here.

Pfizer: beat. Link here.

EPD: raises dividend again. Link here.

Crescent Point Energy: earnings, press release.

Shell, earnings, twitter.

EOG: earnings, twitter.

Semiconductors, chips: poised for growth, link here.

• Pelosi sells $4 million worth of Nvidia stock at a major loss, link here.

Mercedes: robust earnings, guidance, link here.

Meta: miss expectations, net income plummets 36%; link here.

BP annual report: link here via Rigzone.

******************************************
Back to the Bakken

Far Side: link here.

WTI: $99.22.

Natural gas: $8.501

Thursday, July 28, 2022: 28 for the month, 28 for the quarter, 367 for the year

• 38667, conf, CLR, Bang 4-4H,

Wednesday, July 27, 2022: 27 for the month, 27 for the quarter, 366 for the year

• 38614, conf, CLR, Bang 13-4H1,

RBN Energy: drill down report on ESG in the energy industry. 

Over the past few years, the simultaneous drives for action on climate change, diversity in the workplace, and corporate accountability have coalesced into the environmental, social, and governance (ESG) movement. The energy industry has been at the center of all this, of course, because significant volumes of greenhouse gases (GHGs) are generated with the production, processing, transportation and –– especially –– consumption of hydrocarbons. But while many energy companies have developed ESG strategies and goals, the ESG movement has also come under increasing scrutiny and criticism –– and from all sides, it seems. So where does the movement stand today, and what are its prospects in a world that is now as focused on energy security and affordability as it is on quickly reining in GHG emissions? In today’s RBN blog, we discuss highlights from our new Drill Down Report on the issues surrounding ESG.

It’s not surprising that ESG came to the fore in the late 2010s, or that players in the energy industry — oilfield service companies, E&Ps, midstreamers and refiners — have taken on central roles in the movement. Back in 2015, the Paris Agreement attracted the world’s attention and made it clear that governments and industries of all stripes would be taking serious steps toward reducing GHG emissions. Also, a new generation of entrepreneurs and investors was eager to take socially responsible investing to the next level with the multifaceted aims of making corporations more open, more diverse in their management and staffing, and more committed to improving their environmental performance.

By 2020 and 2021, most energy companies had developed ESG strategies in which they detailed their efforts to reduce emissions of carbon dioxide, methane and other GHGs and to ramp up their efforts on the social and governance fronts. But there’s been some blowback, especially lately. Advocates of more aggressive climate action have asserted that ESG programs by many hydrocarbon-focused energy companies are little more than greenwashing, a subterfuge designed to soften the skepticism among ESG-minded investors and lenders and the general public about their industry and its activities and products.