Thursday, February 9, 2023

ENB Reports Loss -- February 10, 2023

Link here: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/industry-news/energy-and-resources/article-enbridge-posts-quarterly-loss-on-186-billion-charge/.

Huge miss but due to one-time charge. 

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PSX Increases Dividend By 8 Percent -- February 9, 2023

Press release: link here.

Record date: 2/21/23.

Pay date: 3/1/23.

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Burt Bacharach -- RIP -- 94 Years Of Age -- February 9, 2023


Elsewhere I maintain that 1969 was the best year ever for music [1969 -- six months before, extending to six months after]. [The link may not work in Firefox browser.]

From wiki: "Raindrops Keep Fallin' on My Head" is a song written by Burt Bacharach and Hal David for the 1969 film Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid. 

The uplifting lyrics describe somebody who overcomes his troubles and worries by realizing that "it won't be long till happiness steps up to greet me."
The single by B. J. Thomas reached No. 1 on charts in the United States, Canada and Norway, and reached No. 38 in the UK Singles Chart.
It topped the Billboard Hot 100 for four weeks in January 1970 and was also the first American No. 1 hit of the 1970s. The song also spent seven weeks atop the Billboard adult contemporary chart.
Billboard ranked it as the No. 4 song of 1970. According to Billboard magazine, it had sold over 2 million copies by March 14, 1970, with eight-track and cassette versions also climbing the charts.
It won an Oscar for Best Original Song.
Bacharach also won Best Original Score.

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EIA Projects Increased Crude Oil Production In The Permian As New Natural Gas Pipelines Come On Line; Flaring Restricts Crude Oil Production -- February 8, 2023

It's small print in the graphic, so here are the data points:

  • EIA
  • STEO (short-term energy outlook)
  • crude oil production, US, average
    • 2019, record: 12.3 million bopd
    • 2022e: 11.9 million bopd
    • 2023e: 12.4 million bopd
    • 2024e: 12.8 million bopd

Permian:

  • 2023e: increases by 470,000 bopd to average 5.7 million bopd (9% increase)
  • 2024e: increases by another 350,000 bopd
  • see also Texas jackpot!

In round numbers:

  • US crude oil production: 12 million bopd
  • Permian crude oil production: 6 million bopd (held back by flaring rules)
    • in national emergency, those flaring rules would be relaxed
    • the increase production, in such a case, would be immediate (faster than an SPR release)
    • needs to be fact-checked
       

All American Pipeline predicts Permian production could increase by 500,000 bopd in 2023, which is pretty in line with the EIA assessment.

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An MRO Well With Halo Effect In Bailey Oil Field -- Reminiscing -- For The Archives -- For The Grandchildren -- February 9, 2023

****************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: 46.

WTI: $77.56.

Natural gas:$2.466.

One new permit:

  • Operator: CLR
  • Field: Pembroke (McKenzie)
  • Comments:
    • CLR has a permit for a Brooks well, SESW 9-149-98, 
      • to be sited 1050 FSL and 2404 FWL

Seven permits renewed:

  • Oasis: seven Lars permits in Mountrail County;

Four producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  • 29294, 1,703, Slawson, Vixen Federal 6-19-30TFH, Big Bend,
  • 30868, 1,233, Prima Exploration, Smokey Bear State 3H, Smoky Butte,
  • 38592, 3,238, MRO, Killion 44-7H, Bailey,
  • 38593, 3,014, MRO, Weeks 14-8TH, Bailey,

 
Most of the wells in the MRO Killion / Weeks area are off line or too new to discuss, but this is one in the immediate area (remember: the Bailley oil field is a great field for observing the halo effect)

  • 18384, 394, MRO, Glenn Eckelberg 24-8H, Bailey, t5/10; cum 575K 12/22, recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN12-202224894890091338473556883308
BAKKEN11-2022271410414093218991099210202507
BAKKEN10-20223117872178573535115571141021233
BAKKEN9-20223015750157964533116188159337
BAKKEN8-2022271645116527619681117310846126
BAKKEN7-20227510048022611938353252337
BAKKEN6-20220000000
BAKKEN5-20220000000
BAKKEN4-202200110000
BAKKEN3-20222917932006109011470821
BAKKEN2-20222818481825117811660842
BAKKEN1-20223120652035127813040940
BAKKEN12-20213121062157126113320966
BAKKEN11-20213020441983136712920942
BAKKEN10-20213121252093139213400979
BAKKEN9-20213021452175151813480990
BAKKEN8-202131240323921658144401108

********************************
Reminiscing -- For The Grandchildren

Some people like to snow-ski. Some like to pontoon-party on the lake. Some like to travel to exotic locales. 

Me, my favorite activity -- it's not a pastime -- it's more than that -- is walking. Just that, nothing more, walking. Depending on the weather, the location, the environment, sometimes I prefer walking in a big city; sometimes I prefer walking in the badlands, whether it's North Dakota or North Yorkshire. 

In the badlands, I don't need a destination. In a big city, I need a destination.

And, in the US, that destination is a bookstore with and/or next to a coffee shop with free wi-fi and outlets to recharge several mobile devices. 

I love the big city. 

Forty-six years ago, my favorite city in which to walk, Boston.

Forty-three years ago, San Francisco.

I didn't care much for London, as a walking city. Paris? Supreme, but not for bookstores and that was before mobile devices.

Istanbul? Kind of okay. But I needed more time.

Chicago? Sort of.

Trondheim? Oh, yes!

I prefer walking with a particular type of woman or by myself. Never with another man. I'll have coffee with another man but never walk "aimlessly" with a man. For me, walking is a private activity only to be shared with a woman. Biological XY with pronouns she/her.

So, today, I love Portland. Yeah, that Portland. Oregon. Wow, the weather is perfect, bright sunshine, no rain, no wind. 

It really reminds me of San Francisco, the San Francisco I remember in the 1970s. 

For me:

  • the extended 60s: public school; graduated from high school, 1969; college;
    • North Dakota and South Dakota
    • grew up watching "The Wonderful World of Disney" every Sunday night, 1959 - 1962
      • I believe television first signed on in Williston, ND, in 1957
  • the 70s: professional education; doctorate, 1977; post-graduate degree, 1980;
    • Europe, Boston, Los Angeles, San Francisco
  • the 80s: foot-loose and fancy-free in the USAF, overseas;
    • Europe, Asia, Africa
  • the 90s: the US south; no longer foot-loose or fancy-free, but still in the USAF;
    • Alabama, Virginia, Texas;
  • the 00s: the lost decade
  • the 10s: San Antone
  • the 20s: Sophia

Destination: Powell Books. This is the fourth day in a row I've MAXed from Gresham, Oregon, to downtown Portland. It's an hour ride on the MAX and I probably pass twenty Starbucks along the way. But I want this one, across the street from Powell Books.

Each day, I've bought at least one book from Powell's. Over the four days, I've averaged two books / day. 

I didn't need another book -- I've got six to finish on my trip back to Dallas, but I can't go to Starbucks without a new book when I'm in Portland. That's why I'm here.

My first six books were serious literature or serious science or serious politics. Today, a lark, as they say. 

The two new books: ---

But, first, how I got to these two books -- 

I was nostalgic (but in a very, very good way). I experienced my coming of age in Los Angeles, San Francisco, and Boston with a few stops in between. So, I wanted a "history" book of California -- and what luck -- I found two: a "political history" (sort of) of California which would satisfy the northern California itch, and a book on Disneyland, which would satisfy the southern California itch.

The Disney book is a throw-away -- once read I will pass it on to my younger daughter who will take the twins to Disneyland, Anaheim, California, when they are eight. 

The other book, amazingly, interestingly, coincidentally, is really about the California immigration issue. Wow, it might be a bit dated, but it will serve as the foundation for what's going on now. 

I'm thrilled:

  • California: America's High-Stakes Experiment, Peter Schrag, c. 2006. 
  • Disney's Land: Walt Disney and the Invention of the Amusement Park That Changed the World: Richard Snow, c. 2019.
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The Ovintiv Kramer Wells -- An Update -- February 9, 2023

I'll come back to this page later. But I'm in too good a mood to blog about the Bakken right now. Gonna blog about something else.

But, tell me again, they've run out of good sites from which to drill for oil in the Bakken. Here, hold my oil can: link here.

The Ovintiv Kramer wells are tracked here. 

The map:


The wells (pending -- will be delay due to family commitments):

  • 22390, 1,252, Ovintiv, Lund 26-18SH, Siverston, t7/12; cum 188K 12/22: halo effect;
  • 38243, drl/A, Kramer 150-97-18-19-13H, Siverston, t--; cum 156K 12/22;

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN12-20223021477213742796546950446802122
BAKKEN11-20223029105289853540679775787071068
BAKKEN10-2022263878939019429007864578437208
BAKKEN9-20223061324610745818798089931624927
BAKKEN8-2022455725511610079487097776

38242, drl/A, Kramer 150-97-18-19-2H, Siverston, t--; cum 169K 12/22;

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN12-20222319857197962399752379498672368
BAKKEN11-20223031862317423542386786856241162
BAKKEN10-2022274740647626284929399593746249
BAKKEN9-202230631546290348481102525973755150
BAKKEN8-2022462886219455786397715843
  • 38241, drl/A, Kramer 150-97-18-19-12H, Siverston, t--; cum 171K 12/22;

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN12-20223020759206682320246418441642098
BAKKEN11-20222829385292922811574757737561001
BAKKEN10-202231518655207347832110231109939292
BAKKEN9-2022306277362525452321145101087585752
BAKKEN8-2022463696299665884737566827


38240,

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN12-20222519060190112174951895494052346
BAKKEN11-20223031929318013154787311861421169
BAKKEN10-2022274423244468450809971699452264
BAKKEN9-2022306497264724558331178711119505921
BAKKEN8-2022474107329378698328781959


38239,

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN12-20223118502184511893556242535222542
BAKKEN11-20223030501303672467480793797111082
BAKKEN10-2022283707737331302697717176967204
BAKKEN9-202230652746501347982101036959615075
BAKKEN8-2022464366365631599288866969

 

38849,

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN12-20222414920148941830835775340421617
BAKKEN11-20222926695265912703478300
BAKKEN10-2022313821638389394728776686754230
BAKKEN9-202230501215001446110104576986775219
BAKKEN8-2022815201150341760625011218212391


38244,

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN12-20223023642234992371268193649203083
BAKKEN11-20222927841277453004871600
BAKKEN10-2022314552645683572808623485240226
BAKKEN9-2022305008549955719981259971188896288
BAKKEN8-2022812634124952780624480218612389


38245,

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN12-20223021647215352431064830617172931
BAKKEN11-20223028248281542911478482774311051
BAKKEN10-202231480204821650113102907102635272
BAKKEN9-2022305864958504602621193981134005998
BAKKEN8-20221013579134302742419488174031902


38246,

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN12-20223019800197182448944905427222029
BAKKEN11-20223028635285063092578725776711054
BAKKEN10-2022263314833313360596792467744180
BAKKEN9-202230463344627253950104753994915262
BAKKEN8-2022815385152161925029157260382845


38247,

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN10-2022313821638389394728776686754230
BAKKEN9-202230501215001446110104576986775219
BAKKEN8-2022815201150341760626615237682597


38248,

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN12-20223018479183702528436582347921652
BAKKEN11-2022292208722007290496080859994814
BAKKEN10-2022313456034691453217338873194194
BAKKEN9-20223040182401154855185179809004279
BAKKEN8-2022812157120241716220609184052011


31837, look at this halo effect -- 1,558, XTO, Lund 21X-17AXD, Siverston, t12/17; cum 243K 12/22;

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN12-202227486450131074790948281271
BAKKEN11-202228675561909223122811154178
BAKKEN10-2022158381582158099091611
BAKKEN9-2022301171610812185632115219584785
BAKKEN8-20221129106822111958
BAKKEN7-20220000000
BAKKEN6-202200630000
BAKKEN5-2022134505663721400113076
BAKKEN4-20222813641379154031372602114
BAKKEN3-20222919021790327141683328366
BAKKEN2-202286195371688880

21706, 2,002, Ovintiv, Lundin 11-13SEH, Siverston, t4/12; cum 354K 12/23;

 

The graphic:



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Crude Oil Resides In Biden's Mind -- Just As It Did In Obama's -- February 9, 2023

Yesterday in an e-mail to a reader I suggested that, politics aside, the State of the Union Address, for investors, telegraphs what will be important for policy makers in Washington, DC

Right on cue from Bloomberg: chart of the day, and op-ed:

Op-ed:

US President Joe Biden went off-script Tuesday night during his annual State of the Union address, acknowledging a reality that the White House had long sidestepped: Even under the most aggressive climate policy, demand for oil will remain strong for some time yet.

In off-the-cuff comments, Biden said the world would need oil for “at least another decade,” an admission that lends weight to a shift in focus among consuming nations: The high prices of last year and the redrawing of global crude flows have elevated energy security to a policy priority — at the cost of efforts to fight climate change.

Policymakers have long wrangled with an energy trilemma: how to ensure accessibility, affordability and sustainability. One of the three is often sidelined in favor of the others. For several years, protecting the environment has been paramount, with Biden pledging a transition away from oil. Now, security of supply and low prices have made a comeback, to the detriment of climate concerns.

Big Oil has, unsurprisingly, embraced the new approach. Exxon Mobil Corp. seized on the change in tack last week, saying it’s not a matter of choosing whether to satisfy demand or spearhead the energy transition; rather it’s “an ‘and’ equation, one in which we help meet the world’s energy needs and lead in reducing greenhouse-gas emissions.”

Energy security will likely remain front of mind this year, particularly at three key forums: the annual summits of the Group of Seven and Group of 20, and the United Nations’ COP28 climate conference. Japan, India and the United Arab Emirates will chair each of these meetings, respectively. All three will, according to diplomats, concentrate more on issues of accessibility and affordability than on sustainability, despite pressure from Europe.

Biden’s impromptu comments are a sure sign of what’s to come.
--Javier Blas, Bloomberg Opinion
 
************************************
A Musical Interlude

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Hydrogen -- February 9, 2023

Locator: 10020H2.

And the governor wonders why utility costs (natural gas) are surging in California. LOL.

From The LA Times today:

Full story over at oilprice: link here.

The conversion will involve installing new turbines at the Scattergood Generating Station, which will be operated with hydrogen. The hydrogen will be produced through electrolysis using power from solar or wind power installations. The report notes that green hydrogen power generation has never been done on such a scale.

The plant will not begin burning only green hydrogen from the start. At first, it would only add the low-carbon fuel to natural gas, the report noted.

What's missing in the summary paragraph?

Following consultations, the committee recommended that the authorities make sure the conversion does not lead to increased pollutant emissions and does not create public risks associated with the production, storage, transportation, and use of green hydrogen.

Hydrogen is tracked here.

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The Market -- February 9, 2023

Updates

Later, 10:44 a.m. PST: well, that was fast. The initial response to Bob Iger this morning? A 300-point rally in the Dow but as I suggested in the original post, it was all smoke and mirrors or snake oil and once analysts really listened to what Iger said realized Disney's prospects were not that good, and the Dow went negative.

Original Post

Proxy fight for Disney: it's over ... from the horse's mouth at 6:49 a.m. PST. Wow. Amazing to actually hear this in live-time. 

  • DIS up $5.49; up 4.91%.

My biggest dilemma:

  • whether to subscribe to Barron's; it's now down to $1/week for a full year; cancel anytime

Not on my bingo card today: pre-market, the Dow is up 230 points.

  • Time to check in on live CNBC / Hulu.
    • first time I've logged into live CNBC in several weeks
  • Wow, wow, wow.
    • NVDA: up 2%; up $4.30
    • CVX: up a smidge
    • That's all I need to know.
    • market open: SCCO up almost 2%.
  • what's moving the market: DIS
  • more to follow as the morning moves on.

DIS:

  • big story breaking
  • DIS up almost 6% in pre-market trading
  • announces re-structuring
  • announces 7,000-cut in employees
  • beat earnings estimate
  • the interview
    • wow, wow, wow: if you listen to the CNBC interview with Bob Iger this morning, this did not instill a lot of confidence; no free cash flow for at least a year and Iger says they are already talking about re-instating the dividend
    • Iger's talk on debt reduction was ... akin to vaorware 
    • open-minded on Hulu -- but wasn't forthcoming; obviously in negotiations to buy what DIS doesn't already own -- or sell it ...??? I wasn't quite sure what Iger said on this issue

On the agenda today:

Backstory links:

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MDU Earnings -- 4Q22, Full Year, And Guidance -- February 9, 2023

Unemployment claims: weekly; today's report. Yawn. 

MDU earnings:

  • press release;
  • consensus: 51 cents; $1.5 billion
  • no whisper number;
  • actual:
    • EPS: 57 cents; adjusted, 61 cents;
    • revenue:
    • earnings:  $117.1 million; adjusted $125.7 million
  • a year ago: 42 cents; $86.5 million

MDU shares:

  • yesterday: shares were down 1.52%
  • today, premarket: share are up 1.55%; up 47 cents

Overall market, before the opening:

  • Dow: up 223 points

***************************
Back to the Bakken

MDU earnings: see above.

Peter Zeihan newsletter.

WTI: $77.96.

Natural gas: $2.423

Friday, February 10, 2023: 23 for the month; 93 for the quarter, 93 for the year
None. 

Thursday, February 9, 2023: 23 for the month; 93 for the quarter, 93 for the year
39010, conf, CLR, Rhonda 7-28H,

RBN Energy: will Asia start pulling large volumes of LNG away from Europe?

2022 was a particularly significant year for the global LNG industry, distinguished by a sharp increase in LNG demand in Europe tied to the reduction in flows of Russian pipeline gas after Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. Whereas Europe had historically been the last market option for many LNG sellers, it became the most highly priced market in the world and pulled in LNG from multiple locations, including a cargo from Australia delivered in October
Paying premium prices enabled European buyers to fill the continent’s underground storage at an unprecedented rate — as of mid-January, storage there was over 80% full. A mild winter, at least to date, coupled with conservation efforts and fuel switching have reduced European natural gas demand by 10% to 15% and helped avoid a gas shortage. Now, gas prices (and LNG cargo prices) have fallen to pre-invasion levels and prompted market observers to suggest that, with China emerging from pandemic-related lockdowns, Asia may start pulling large volumes of LNG its way. In today’s RBN blog, we examine LNG cargo movements within the Asia Pacific and Atlantic regions and what rising Asian demand could mean for European gas supplies going forward.

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A Rambling Thought -- Wednesday, February 8, 2023

I don't know about "you," but in the big scheme of "all things energy" I thought 2022 was a pretty lackluster year for oil investors.

There was no OPEC embargo; there was no huge production cut coming out of OPEC; WTI / Brent didn't trade at particularly high levels; for the most part .... let's do this in bullets:

  • there was no OPEC embargo; 
  • there was no huge production cut coming out of OPEC; 
  • WTI / Brent didn't trade at particularly high levels; 
  • for the most part China was still shut down for most of the year due to Covid;
  • China's demand for crude oil was way down;
  • gasoline demand in the US was way down;
  • more than 50% of office workers were still working from home at the end of the year;
  • President Biden flooded the US market with oil from the SPR which not only resulted in more oil in America but more oil being exported overseas;
  • there were the usual currency issues but for the most part "hurt" US companies.

And with all that, XOM, COP, CVX, TTE reported best profits -- not just revenue -- but the best profits in their entire history -- and these companies have been around a long time and have had some really good years in the past -- and they didn't just have a great year, they reported the best profits ever in their company's career and in many cases doubled their profit year/year and that was with a very, very lackluster year when it came to oil.

Imagine when China is fully open; the Russian sanctions fully implemented; US driving season is back; US office workers return to work; WTI hits $100 as predicted by "almost everyone." 

A lackluster year in oil last year and oil companies are reporting their best profits ever in their companies' history. 

That just blows me away.

Another thought along that same line:

  • these companies sell absolutely 100% of the product they produce, and they sell it in less than a month after it's produced, so not a lot of wasted  / stagnant inventory;their product doesn't sit on the shelf and expire after some "use-by" date;
  • month-after-month; every bit of the product these companies produce is sold;
    • none of the product is thrown out because it expired
  • these companies are cutting rigs and cutting CAPEX simply because they can
  • these companies are no longer focused on growing their companies; they're focused on growing their free cash flow; their dividends; and, their share buyback programs.

What's not to like?

By the way, how are the EV companies doing? Over the past six months:

  • LCID: down 34%;
  • RIVN: down 45%;
  • GOEV (Canoo): down 70%;
  • ARVL: down 78%;
  • F: down 12%;
  • TSLA: incredibly well; shares have doubled over the past six months;
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