ENB Reports Loss -- February 10, 2023

Link here: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/industry-news/energy-and-resources/article-enbridge-posts-quarterly-loss-on-186-billion-charge/.

Huge miss but due to one-time charge. 

PSX Increases Dividend By 8 Percent -- February 9, 2023

Press release: link here.

Record date: 2/21/23.

Pay date: 3/1/23.

Burt Bacharach -- RIP -- 94 Years Of Age -- February 9, 2023

Elsewhere I maintain that 1969 was the best year ever for music [1969 -- six months before, extending to six months after]. [The link may not work in Firefox browser.]

From wiki: "Raindrops Keep Fallin' on My Head" is a song written by Burt Bacharach and Hal David for the 1969 film Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid. 

The uplifting lyrics describe somebody who overcomes his troubles and worries by realizing that "it won't be long till happiness steps up to greet me."

The single by B. J. Thomas reached No. 1 on charts in the United States, Canada and Norway, and reached No. 38 in the UK Singles Chart.

It topped the Billboard Hot 100 for four weeks in January 1970 and was also the first American No. 1 hit of the 1970s. The song also spent seven weeks atop the Billboard adult contemporary chart.

Billboard ranked it as the No. 4 song of 1970. According to Billboard magazine, it had sold over 2 million copies by March 14, 1970, with eight-track and cassette versions also climbing the charts.

It won an Oscar for Best Original Song.

Bacharach also won Best Original Score.

EIA Projects Increased Crude Oil Production In The Permian As New Natural Gas Pipelines Come On Line; Flaring Restricts Crude Oil Production -- February 8, 2023

It's small print in the graphic, so here are the data points:

• EIA
• STEO (short-term energy outlook)
• crude oil production, US, average
• 2019, record: 12.3 million bopd
• 2022e: 11.9 million bopd
• 2023e: 12.4 million bopd
• 2024e: 12.8 million bopd

Permian:

• 2023e: increases by 470,000 bopd to average 5.7 million bopd (9% increase)
• 2024e: increases by another 350,000 bopd
• see also Texas jackpot!
  

In round numbers:

• US crude oil production: 12 million bopd
• Permian crude oil production: 6 million bopd (held back by flaring rules)
• in national emergency, those flaring rules would be relaxed
• the increase production, in such a case, would be immediate (faster than an SPR release)
• needs to be fact-checked
   

All American Pipeline predicts Permian production could increase by 500,000 bopd in 2023, which is pretty in line with the EIA assessment.

An MRO Well With Halo Effect In Bailey Oil Field -- Reminiscing -- For The Archives -- For The Grandchildren -- February 9, 2023

****************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: 46.

WTI: $77.56.

Natural gas:$2.466.

One new permit:

• Operator: CLR
• Field: Pembroke (McKenzie)
• Comments:
• CLR has a permit for a Brooks well, SESW 9-149-98, 
• to be sited 1050 FSL and 2404 FWL

Seven permits renewed:

• Oasis: seven Lars permits in Mountrail County;

Four producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 29294, 1,703, Slawson, Vixen Federal 6-19-30TFH, Big Bend,
• 30868, 1,233, Prima Exploration, Smokey Bear State 3H, Smoky Butte,
• 38592, 3,238, MRO, Killion 44-7H, Bailey,
• 38593, 3,014, MRO, Weeks 14-8TH, Bailey,

 
Most of the wells in the MRO Killion / Weeks area are off line or too new to discuss, but this is one in the immediate area (remember: the Bailley oil field is a great field for observing the halo effect)

• 18384, 394, MRO, Glenn Eckelberg 24-8H, Bailey, t5/10; cum 575K 12/22, recent production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	12-2022	24	8948	9009	13384	7355	6883	308
BAKKEN	11-2022	27	14104	14093	21899	10992	10202	507
BAKKEN	10-2022	31	17872	17857	35351	15571	14102	1233
BAKKEN	9-2022	30	15750	15796	45331	16188	15933	7
BAKKEN	8-2022	27	16451	16527	61968	11173	10846	126
BAKKEN	7-2022	7	5100	4802	26119	3835	3252	337
BAKKEN	6-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2022	0	0	11	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2022	29	1793	2006	1090	1147	0	821
BAKKEN	2-2022	28	1848	1825	1178	1166	0	842
BAKKEN	1-2022	31	2065	2035	1278	1304	0	940
BAKKEN	12-2021	31	2106	2157	1261	1332	0	966
BAKKEN	11-2021	30	2044	1983	1367	1292	0	942
BAKKEN	10-2021	31	2125	2093	1392	1340	0	979
BAKKEN	9-2021	30	2145	2175	1518	1348	0	990
BAKKEN	8-2021	31	2403	2392	1658	1444	0	1108

********************************
Reminiscing -- For The Grandchildren

Some people like to snow-ski. Some like to pontoon-party on the lake. Some like to travel to exotic locales. 

Me, my favorite activity -- it's not a pastime -- it's more than that -- is walking. Just that, nothing more, walking. Depending on the weather, the location, the environment, sometimes I prefer walking in a big city; sometimes I prefer walking in the badlands, whether it's North Dakota or North Yorkshire. 

In the badlands, I don't need a destination. In a big city, I need a destination.

And, in the US, that destination is a bookstore with and/or next to a coffee shop with free wi-fi and outlets to recharge several mobile devices. 

I love the big city. 

Forty-six years ago, my favorite city in which to walk, Boston.

Forty-three years ago, San Francisco.

I didn't care much for London, as a walking city. Paris? Supreme, but not for bookstores and that was before mobile devices.

Istanbul? Kind of okay. But I needed more time.

Chicago? Sort of.

Trondheim? Oh, yes!

I prefer walking with a particular type of woman or by myself. Never with another man. I'll have coffee with another man but never walk "aimlessly" with a man. For me, walking is a private activity only to be shared with a woman. Biological XY with pronouns she/her. [With another male: there was one exception. Walking across Europe in the summer of 1973. Unplanned, but a fellow hiker.]

So, today, I love Portland. Yeah, that Portland. Oregon. Wow, the weather is perfect, bright sunshine, no rain, no wind. 

It really reminds me of San Francisco, the San Francisco I remember in the 1970s. 

For me:

• the extended 60s: public school; graduated from high school, 1969; college;
• North Dakota and South Dakota
• grew up watching "The Wonderful World of Disney" every Sunday night, 1959 - 1962
• I believe television first signed on in Williston, ND, in 1957
  
• the 70s: professional education; doctorate, 1977; post-graduate degree, 1980;
• Europe, Boston, Los Angeles, San Francisco
  
• the 80s: foot-loose and fancy-free in the USAF, overseas;
• Europe, Asia, Africa
  
• the 90s: the US south; no longer foot-loose or fancy-free, but still in the USAF;
  
• Alabama, Virginia, Texas;
• the 00s: the lost decade
• the 10s: San Antone
• the 20s: Sophia

Destination: Powell Books. This is the fourth day in a row I've MAXed from Gresham, Oregon, to downtown Portland. It's an hour ride on the MAX and I probably pass twenty Starbucks along the way. But I want this one, across the street from Powell Books.

Each day, I've bought at least one book from Powell's. Over the four days, I've averaged two books / day. 

I didn't need another book -- I've got six to finish on my trip back to Dallas, but I can't go to Starbucks without a new book when I'm in Portland. That's why I'm here.

My first six books were serious literature or serious science or serious politics. Today, a lark, as they say. 

The two new books: ---

But, first, how I got to these two books -- 

I was nostalgic (but in a very, very good way). I experienced my coming of age in Los Angeles, San Francisco, and Boston with a few stops in between. So, I wanted a "history" book of California -- and what luck -- I found two: a "political history" (sort of) of California which would satisfy the northern California itch, and a book on Disneyland, which would satisfy the southern California itch.

The Disney book is a throw-away -- once read I will pass it on to my younger daughter who will take the twins to Disneyland, Anaheim, California, when they are eight. 

The other book, amazingly, interestingly, coincidentally, is really about the California immigration issue. Wow, it might be a bit dated, but it will serve as the foundation for what's going on now. 

I'm thrilled:

• California: America's High-Stakes Experiment, Peter Schrag, c. 2006. 
• Disney's Land: Walt Disney and the Invention of the Amusement Park That Changed the World: Richard Snow, c. 2019.

The Ovintiv Kramer Wells -- An Update -- February 9, 2023

I'll come back to this page later. But I'm in too good a mood to blog about the Bakken right now. Gonna blog about something else.

But, tell me again, they've run out of good sites from which to drill for oil in the Bakken. Here, hold my oil can: link here.

The Ovintiv Kramer wells are tracked here. 

The map:

The wells (pending -- will be delay due to family commitments):

• 22390, 1,252, Ovintiv, Lund 26-18SH, Siverston, t7/12; cum 188K 12/22: halo effect;

• 38243, drl/A, Kramer 150-97-18-19-13H, Siverston, t--; cum 156K 12/22;
  

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	12-2022	30	21477	21374	27965	46950	44680	2122
BAKKEN	11-2022	30	29105	28985	35406	79775	78707	1068
BAKKEN	10-2022	26	38789	39019	42900	78645	78437	208
BAKKEN	9-2022	30	61324	61074	58187	98089	93162	4927
BAKKEN	8-2022	4	5572	5511	6100	7948	7097	776

38242, drl/A, Kramer 150-97-18-19-2H, Siverston, t--; cum 169K 12/22;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	12-2022	23	19857	19796	23997	52379	49867	2368
BAKKEN	11-2022	30	31862	31742	35423	86786	85624	1162
BAKKEN	10-2022	27	47406	47626	28492	93995	93746	249
BAKKEN	9-2022	30	63154	62903	48481	102525	97375	5150
BAKKEN	8-2022	4	6288	6219	4557	8639	7715	843

• 38241, drl/A, Kramer 150-97-18-19-12H, Siverston, t--; cum 171K 12/22;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	12-2022	30	20759	20668	23202	46418	44164	2098
BAKKEN	11-2022	28	29385	29292	28115	74757	73756	1001
BAKKEN	10-2022	31	51865	52073	47832	110231	109939	292
BAKKEN	9-2022	30	62773	62525	45232	114510	108758	5752
BAKKEN	8-2022	4	6369	6299	6658	8473	7566	827

38240,

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	12-2022	25	19060	19011	21749	51895	49405	2346
BAKKEN	11-2022	30	31929	31801	31547	87311	86142	1169
BAKKEN	10-2022	27	44232	44468	45080	99716	99452	264
BAKKEN	9-2022	30	64972	64724	55833	117871	111950	5921
BAKKEN	8-2022	4	7410	7329	3786	9832	8781	959

38239,

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	12-2022	31	18502	18451	18935	56242	53522	2542
BAKKEN	11-2022	30	30501	30367	24674	80793	79711	1082
BAKKEN	10-2022	28	37077	37331	30269	77171	76967	204
BAKKEN	9-2022	30	65274	65013	47982	101036	95961	5075
BAKKEN	8-2022	4	6436	6365	6315	9928	8866	969

 

38849,

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	12-2022	24	14920	14894	18308	35775	34042	1617
BAKKEN	11-2022	29	26695	26591	27034	783	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2022	31	38216	38389	39472	87766	86754	230
BAKKEN	9-2022	30	50121	50014	46110	104576	98677	5219
BAKKEN	8-2022	8	15201	15034	17606	25011	21821	2391

38244,

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	12-2022	30	23642	23499	23712	68193	64920	3083
BAKKEN	11-2022	29	27841	27745	30048	716	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2022	31	45526	45683	57280	86234	85240	226
BAKKEN	9-2022	30	50085	49955	71998	125997	118889	6288
BAKKEN	8-2022	8	12634	12495	27806	24480	21861	2389

38245,

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	12-2022	30	21647	21535	24310	64830	61717	2931
BAKKEN	11-2022	30	28248	28154	29114	78482	77431	1051
BAKKEN	10-2022	31	48020	48216	50113	102907	102635	272
BAKKEN	9-2022	30	58649	58504	60262	119398	113400	5998
BAKKEN	8-2022	10	13579	13430	27424	19488	17403	1902

38246,

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	12-2022	30	19800	19718	24489	44905	42722	2029
BAKKEN	11-2022	30	28635	28506	30925	78725	77671	1054
BAKKEN	10-2022	26	33148	33313	36059	67924	67744	180
BAKKEN	9-2022	30	46334	46272	53950	104753	99491	5262
BAKKEN	8-2022	8	15385	15216	19250	29157	26038	2845

38247,

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	10-2022	31	38216	38389	39472	87766	86754	230
BAKKEN	9-2022	30	50121	50014	46110	104576	98677	5219
BAKKEN	8-2022	8	15201	15034	17606	26615	23768	2597

38248,

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	12-2022	30	18479	18370	25284	36582	34792	1652
BAKKEN	11-2022	29	22087	22007	29049	60808	59994	814
BAKKEN	10-2022	31	34560	34691	45321	73388	73194	194
BAKKEN	9-2022	30	40182	40115	48551	85179	80900	4279
BAKKEN	8-2022	8	12157	12024	17162	20609	18405	2011

31837, look at this halo effect -- 1,558, XTO, Lund 21X-17AXD, Siverston, t12/17; cum 243K 12/22;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	12-2022	27	4864	5013	10747	9094	8281	271
BAKKEN	11-2022	28	6755	6190	9223	12281	11541	78
BAKKEN	10-2022	15	838	1582	1580	990	916	11
BAKKEN	9-2022	30	11716	10812	18563	21152	19584	785
BAKKEN	8-2022	1	129	106	82	211	195	8
BAKKEN	7-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2022	0	0	63	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2022	13	450	566	372	1400	1130	76
BAKKEN	4-2022	28	1364	1379	1540	3137	2602	114
BAKKEN	3-2022	29	1902	1790	3271	4168	3328	366
BAKKEN	2-2022	8	619	537	1688	88	0

21706, 2,002, Ovintiv, Lundin 11-13SEH, Siverston, t4/12; cum 354K 12/23;

 

The graphic:

Crude Oil Resides In Biden's Mind -- Just As It Did In Obama's -- February 9, 2023

Yesterday in an e-mail to a reader I suggested that, politics aside, the State of the Union Address, for investors, telegraphs what will be important for policy makers in Washington, DC

Right on cue from Bloomberg: chart of the day, and op-ed:

Op-ed:

US President Joe Biden went off-script Tuesday night during his annual State of the Union address, acknowledging a reality that the White House had long sidestepped: Even under the most aggressive climate policy, demand for oil will remain strong for some time yet.

In off-the-cuff comments, Biden said the world would need oil for “at least another decade,” an admission that lends weight to a shift in focus among consuming nations: The high prices of last year and the redrawing of global crude flows have elevated energy security to a policy priority — at the cost of efforts to fight climate change.

Policymakers have long wrangled with an energy trilemma: how to ensure accessibility, affordability and sustainability. One of the three is often sidelined in favor of the others. For several years, protecting the environment has been paramount, with Biden pledging a transition away from oil. Now, security of supply and low prices have made a comeback, to the detriment of climate concerns.

Big Oil has, unsurprisingly, embraced the new approach. Exxon Mobil Corp. seized on the change in tack last week, saying it’s not a matter of choosing whether to satisfy demand or spearhead the energy transition; rather it’s “an ‘and’ equation, one in which we help meet the world’s energy needs and lead in reducing greenhouse-gas emissions.”

Energy security will likely remain front of mind this year, particularly at three key forums: the annual summits of the Group of Seven and Group of 20, and the United Nations’ COP28 climate conference. Japan, India and the United Arab Emirates will chair each of these meetings, respectively. All three will, according to diplomats, concentrate more on issues of accessibility and affordability than on sustainability, despite pressure from Europe.

Biden’s impromptu comments are a sure sign of what’s to come.

--Javier Blas, Bloomberg Opinion

 

************************************
A Musical Interlude

Hydrogen -- February 9, 2023

Locator: 10020H2.

And the governor wonders why utility costs (natural gas) are surging in California. LOL.

From The LA Times today:

Full story over at oilprice: link here.

The conversion will involve installing new turbines at the Scattergood Generating Station, which will be operated with hydrogen. The hydrogen will be produced through electrolysis using power from solar or wind power installations. The report notes that green hydrogen power generation has never been done on such a scale.

The plant will not begin burning only green hydrogen from the start. At first, it would only add the low-carbon fuel to natural gas, the report noted.

What's missing in the summary paragraph?

Following consultations, the committee recommended that the authorities make sure the conversion does not lead to increased pollutant emissions and does not create public risks associated with the production, storage, transportation, and use of green hydrogen.

Hydrogen is tracked here.

The Market -- February 9, 2023

Updates

Later, 10:44 a.m. PST: well, that was fast. The initial response to Bob Iger this morning? A 300-point rally in the Dow but as I suggested in the original post, it was all smoke and mirrors or snake oil and once analysts really listened to what Iger said realized Disney's prospects were not that good, and the Dow went negative.

Original Post

Proxy fight for Disney: it's over ... from the horse's mouth at 6:49 a.m. PST. Wow. Amazing to actually hear this in live-time. 

• DIS up $5.49; up 4.91%.

My biggest dilemma:

• whether to subscribe to Barron's; it's now down to $1/week for a full year; cancel anytime
  

Not on my bingo card today: pre-market, the Dow is up 230 points.

• Time to check in on live CNBC / Hulu.
• first time I've logged into live CNBC in several weeks
  
• Wow, wow, wow.
• NVDA: up 2%; up $4.30
• CVX: up a smidge
• That's all I need to know.
• market open: SCCO up almost 2%.
  
• what's moving the market: DIS
  
• more to follow as the morning moves on.

DIS:

• big story breaking
• DIS up almost 6% in pre-market trading
  
• announces re-structuring
• announces 7,000-cut in employees
• beat earnings estimate
• the interview
  
• wow, wow, wow: if you listen to the CNBC interview with Bob Iger this morning, this did not instill a lot of confidence; no free cash flow for at least a year and Iger says they are already talking about re-instating the dividend
• Iger's talk on debt reduction was ... akin to vaorware 
• open-minded on Hulu -- but wasn't forthcoming; obviously in negotiations to buy what DIS doesn't already own -- or sell it ...??? I wasn't quite sure what Iger said on this issue
  

On the agenda today:

• Covid.  
• Weekly data will be posted later.
  
• Variant roundup.
  

Backstory links:

• AAPL: now beta-testing BNPL;
• SCCO: huge;
• INTC: update;
• Homelessness;
• Books;
  

MDU Earnings -- 4Q22, Full Year, And Guidance -- February 9, 2023

Unemployment claims: weekly; today's report. Yawn. 

MDU earnings:

• press release;
• consensus: 51 cents; $1.5 billion
• no whisper number;
• actual:
• EPS: 57 cents; adjusted, 61 cents;
• revenue:
• earnings:  $117.1 million; adjusted $125.7 million
• a year ago: 42 cents; $86.5 million

MDU shares:

• yesterday: shares were down 1.52%
• today, premarket: share are up 1.55%; up 47 cents

Overall market, before the opening:

• Dow: up 223 points

***************************
Back to the Bakken

MDU earnings: see above.

Peter Zeihan newsletter.

WTI: $77.96.

Natural gas: $2.423

Friday, February 10, 2023: 23 for the month; 93 for the quarter, 93 for the year
None. 

Thursday, February 9, 2023: 23 for the month; 93 for the quarter, 93 for the year
39010, conf, CLR, Rhonda 7-28H,

RBN Energy: will Asia start pulling large volumes of LNG away from Europe?

2022 was a particularly significant year for the global LNG industry, distinguished by a sharp increase in LNG demand in Europe tied to the reduction in flows of Russian pipeline gas after Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. Whereas Europe had historically been the last market option for many LNG sellers, it became the most highly priced market in the world and pulled in LNG from multiple locations, including a cargo from Australia delivered in October

Paying premium prices enabled European buyers to fill the continent’s underground storage at an unprecedented rate — as of mid-January, storage there was over 80% full. A mild winter, at least to date, coupled with conservation efforts and fuel switching have reduced European natural gas demand by 10% to 15% and helped avoid a gas shortage. Now, gas prices (and LNG cargo prices) have fallen to pre-invasion levels and prompted market observers to suggest that, with China emerging from pandemic-related lockdowns, Asia may start pulling large volumes of LNG its way. In today’s RBN blog, we examine LNG cargo movements within the Asia Pacific and Atlantic regions and what rising Asian demand could mean for European gas supplies going forward.

A Rambling Thought -- Wednesday, February 8, 2023

I don't know about "you," but in the big scheme of "all things energy" I thought 2022 was a pretty lackluster year for oil investors.

There was no OPEC embargo; there was no huge production cut coming out of OPEC; WTI / Brent didn't trade at particularly high levels; for the most part .... let's do this in bullets:

• there was no OPEC embargo; 
• there was no huge production cut coming out of OPEC; 
• WTI / Brent didn't trade at particularly high levels; 
• for the most part China was still shut down for most of the year due to Covid;
• China's demand for crude oil was way down;
• gasoline demand in the US was way down;
• more than 50% of office workers were still working from home at the end of the year;
  
• President Biden flooded the US market with oil from the SPR which not only resulted in more oil in America but more oil being exported overseas;
• there were the usual currency issues but for the most part "hurt" US companies.

And with all that, XOM, COP, CVX, TTE reported best profits -- not just revenue -- but the best profits in their entire history -- and these companies have been around a long time and have had some really good years in the past -- and they didn't just have a great year, they reported the best profits ever in their company's career and in many cases doubled their profit year/year and that was with a very, very lackluster year when it came to oil.

Imagine when China is fully open; the Russian sanctions fully implemented; US driving season is back; US office workers return to work; WTI hits $100 as predicted by "almost everyone." 

A lackluster year in oil last year and oil companies are reporting their best profits ever in their companies' history. 

That just blows me away.

Another thought along that same line:

• these companies sell absolutely 100% of the product they produce, and they sell it in less than a month after it's produced, so not a lot of wasted  / stagnant inventory;their product doesn't sit on the shelf and expire after some "use-by" date;
  
• month-after-month; every bit of the product these companies produce is sold;
• none of the product is thrown out because it expired
• these companies are cutting rigs and cutting CAPEX simply because they can
• these companies are no longer focused on growing their companies; they're focused on growing their free cash flow; their dividends; and, their share buyback programs.

What's not to like?

By the way, how are the EV companies doing? Over the past six months:

• LCID: down 34%;
• RIVN: down 45%;
• GOEV (Canoo): down 70%;
• ARVL: down 78%;
• F: down 12%;
  
• TSLA: incredibly well; shares have doubled over the past six months;