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Thursday, February 9, 2023

EIA Projects Increased Crude Oil Production In The Permian As New Natural Gas Pipelines Come On Line; Flaring Restricts Crude Oil Production -- February 8, 2023

It's small print in the graphic, so here are the data points:

  • EIA
  • STEO (short-term energy outlook)
  • crude oil production, US, average
    • 2019, record: 12.3 million bopd
    • 2022e: 11.9 million bopd
    • 2023e: 12.4 million bopd
    • 2024e: 12.8 million bopd

Permian:

  • 2023e: increases by 470,000 bopd to average 5.7 million bopd (9% increase)
  • 2024e: increases by another 350,000 bopd
  • see also Texas jackpot!

In round numbers:

  • US crude oil production: 12 million bopd
  • Permian crude oil production: 6 million bopd (held back by flaring rules)
    • in national emergency, those flaring rules would be relaxed
    • the increase production, in such a case, would be immediate (faster than an SPR release)
    • needs to be fact-checked
       

All American Pipeline predicts Permian production could increase by 500,000 bopd in 2023, which is pretty in line with the EIA assessment.

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