EIA Projects Increased Crude Oil Production In The Permian As New Natural Gas Pipelines Come On Line; Flaring Restricts Crude Oil Production -- February 8, 2023

It's small print in the graphic, so here are the data points:

• EIA
• STEO (short-term energy outlook)
• crude oil production, US, average
• 2019, record: 12.3 million bopd
• 2022e: 11.9 million bopd
• 2023e: 12.4 million bopd
• 2024e: 12.8 million bopd

Permian:

• 2023e: increases by 470,000 bopd to average 5.7 million bopd (9% increase)
• 2024e: increases by another 350,000 bopd
• see also Texas jackpot!
  

In round numbers:

• US crude oil production: 12 million bopd
• Permian crude oil production: 6 million bopd (held back by flaring rules)
• in national emergency, those flaring rules would be relaxed
• the increase production, in such a case, would be immediate (faster than an SPR release)
• needs to be fact-checked
   

All American Pipeline predicts Permian production could increase by 500,000 bopd in 2023, which is pretty in line with the EIA assessment.