Say What? May 13, 2021

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Three Energy Stocks

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Link to Alex Kimani.

The few articles I recall posted by Alex Kimani suggest he and I are on the same page of music. 

The three publicly traded companies:

• Apache Corp: smart hedging strategy;
• Cheniere Energy: pure-play LNG producer;
• Devon: strong earnings + variable dividends

Alex says BofA recently noted three companies with the potential to grow their free cash flow through consolidations or other cost reduction measures:

• Devon
• Pioneer Natural Resources
• EOG Resources

Devon:

• capital (CAPEX) discipline
• no intention of allocating capital to growth projects until demand side fundamentals recover and it becomes evident that OPEC+ spare oil capacity is effectively absorbed by the world markets
• has adopted a variable dividend structure; something Wall Street seems to appreciate
  

Final words re: Devon:

Devon paid an $0.11/share regular dividend and a $0.24/share variable dividend during the quarter, implying an annualized 5.5% yield. Further, the company has forecast a dividend yield of more than 7% for 2021 if current trends hold, illustrating its commitment to return more capital to shareholders in the form of dividends whenever cash flows permit.

Some Wall Street analysts have pointed to the potential for DVN to sport a dividend yield of as high as 8% by year-end.

Another key attraction: Despite the rally, DVN stock remains relatively cheap.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

A Two-Year-Old CLR Well Goes Over 500K BBls Crude Oil, Still Flowing Without A Pump -- Elm Tree -- May 13, 2021

A CLR well with first production only two years ago has gone over 500K bbls crude oil.

The well:

• 33094: MB 1280; 3,043, Sakakawea Federal 14-19H, Elm Tree, t1/19; cum 483K 1/21; huge well; 502K 3/21;

This well and its neighbors are tracked here. 

The Elm Tree oil field is one of the better fields in the Bakken. But then again, there are quite a few great fields in the Bakken.

The MRO Wolf-Fox Pad Wells Updated; They Appear To Have Been Drilled To Depth; Not Completed; Older Neighoring Wells Recently Taken Off Line -- May 13, 2021

The new wells on the MRO Wolf-Fox pad in Moccasin Creek have gone from drl/drl-->drl/NC, suggesting the wells have been drilled to depth but not completed. FracFocus does not provide any frack data. The older wells, four of them, came off line two and three months ago, and remain off line.

The wells are tracked here.

Is Zavanna Bringing The Shepard Wells In Stony Creek Back Online? May 13, 2021

This well has been off line since 5/20. Most recent data suggests Zavanna is bringing this well back on line. The pad this well is on is tracked here.

The well:

• 20111, 718, Zavanna, Wildcat 1-11H, Stony Creek, short lateral, 20 stages, 2.3 million lbs, t8/11; cum 319K 5/20; remains off line 1/21; produces small amount over five days, 3/21; cum 320K 3/21;

Recent production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	3-2021	5	374	319	620	485	359	51
BAKKEN	2-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2020	29	831	819	1426	1560	1114	14
BAKKEN	4-2020	30	1443	1398	1616	1683	1145	91
BAKKEN	3-2020	30	1177	1165	1630	1952	1123	382
BAKKEN	2-2020	23	1147	1107	1492	1761	995	423
BAKKEN	1-2020	27	1244	1226	1442	1416	913	101

From the Breitbart News Desk -- May 13, 2021

From the Breitbart News Desk today:

Federal health officials announced on Thursday, May 13, 2021, that fully vaccinated people don’t need to wear a mask or physically distance regardless of whether gatherings are large or small, indoors or outdoors. This will come as welcome—if overdue—news to many businesses. No one really wants to sit through a concert, a ballgame, or a movie in a facemask. Even shopping was a drag with diminished airflow.

Yet the sudden shift in policy—just over two weeks ago, federal health officials said the vaccinated should still wear masks—will do little to foster confidence in public authorities, whether they are public health officials, central bankers, or those whose jobs should currently be focused on resolving the gas crisis inflicting the southeastern United States. Throughout the pandemic period, the counsel of our public officials has just been too inconstant and unreliable to inspire trust.

Certainly, the Biden administration has done nothing to assist itself in this regard. If anything, its officials have seemed perfectly helpless in the face of the collapse of our gasoline infrastructure this week, warning the public about over-reacting and tut-tutting Americans for "hoarding" gasoline even while gas stations closed down for lack of product. This was, it shouldn't be forgotten, a foreign attack on the economy and security of the U.S. It's as if FDR responded to Pearl Harbor by telling Americans that the harbor would once again be open for business soon enough.

At the same time, President Biden and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen have decidedly become unreliable narrators when it comes to the economy, insisting that an extra $300 per week could not possibly be a major cause of businesses struggling to find workers despite high unemployment. This defies common sense. In many states, unemployment benefits pay the equivalent of $20 per hour. As a result, a job that pays $30 an hour—the equivalent of over $62,000 a year—really pays just $10 extra. Many people quite sensibly would prefer 100 percent leisure time than 40 hours a week for an extra 10 bucks per hour.

Meanwhile, Fed officials have insisted the inflation seen in Wednesday's Consumer Price Index and Thursday's Producer Price Index will be only transitory, lasting only a few months. But if economists severely underestimated the level of inflation, they may also be underestimating its duration.

Fortunately, several Republican governors have announced that they will end enhanced unemployment benefits early. That should ease both the labor shortage and some of the inflationary pressures — assuming, of course, that the workers can find the gas they need to drive to work.

– Alex Marlow & John Carney
Breitbart News Network

 

That lede:

Federal health officials announced on Thursday, May 13, 2021, that fully vaccinated people don’t need to wear a mask or physically distance regardless of whether gatherings are large or small, indoors or outdoors. 

This was a huge shift -- just over two weeks ago, federal health officials said the vaccinated should still wear masks.

 

One needs to ask the question: why the sudden shift in policy? Nothing changed in two weeks and here we go: the "all clear" sign if one is fully vaccinated.

 

And there's the rub -- if one is fully vaccinated. 

 

My hunch: the sudden shift in policy was made when the data regarding daily vaccination was noted: the vaccination rate is decreasing. Today's "Thursday data" is the worst "Thursday data in ten weeks. The government needed to do something to spur "everyone" to get vaccinated. 

 

Ah, yes, the carrot and/or stick approach. This was the carrot approach. No mask needed if fully vaccinated. Finally, a science-based policy if the vaccine is 100% effective.

 

It's not. 

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HIPAA

And look what's trending on social media now:

HIPPA: wiki.

MRO's Goth Pad In Bailey Oil Field: The 2E-G-J-S Pad

Five new permits, #38304 - 38308, inclusive:

• Operator: MRO
• Field: Bailey (Dunn County)
  
• Comments: MRO has permits for five new Bailey oil field permits, to be sited in SWSW 12-146-94;
• 38304, drl, MRO, Goth 44-11TFH, Bailey, 283 FSL, 521 FWL, t--; cum 114K 7/22;
  
• 38305, drl/drl, MRO, Stein 14-12H, Bailey, 283 FSL, 561 FWL, t--; cum 125K 7/22;
  
• 38306, drl/drl, MRO, Ebert 14-12TFH, Bailey, 283 FSL, 601 FWL, t--; cum 144K 7/22;
  
• 38307, drl/drl, MRO, Emiley 14-12TFH, Bailey, 283 FSL, 641 FWL, is this why some wells below are off line? t--; cum 94K 7/22;
  
• 38308, PNC, MRO, Jarman 24-12TFH, Bailey, 283 FSL, 681 FWL,

Other wells sited in same section:

• 36737, AL/A, MRO, Kloster 24-12H, Bailey, first production, 11/19; t--; cum 332K 3/21; cum 399K 1/22; off line 2/22; back on line, 5/22; cum 416K 7/22;
  
• 36736, AL/A, MRO, Emil 24-12TFH, Bailey, first production, 12/19; t--; cum 220K 3/21; cum 249K 1/22; off line 2/22; back on line, cum 255K 7/22;
  
• 36735, AL/A, MRO, Ritter 34-12TFH, Bailey, first production, 11/19; t--; cum 265K 3/21; cum 324K 2/22; cum 340K 7/22;
  
• 16654, 311, MRO, Buehner 34-12H, Bailey, t8/07; cum 435K 3/21; huge jump in production 11/19; see this post; re-fracked late 2019; see full production here;re-fracked, 10/17/19 - 11/5/19; 7.1 million gallons of water; 88% water by mass; cum 470K 2/22; cum 482K 7/22;
  

The graphic:

"Holy Jabs, Batman" -- Look At This -- Worst Thursday Data In Ten Weeks -- May 13, 2021

One needs to go all the way back to February 19, 2021.

The drop began after April 13, 2021, when the J&J pause was announced over concerns of safety. 

Still need to make an appointment.

Still need to have an ID.

		Total Doses Administered	Number of People Receiving At Least One Dose	Fully Vaccinated	Delta: Difference in daily doses from previous day
Thursday	May 13, 2021	266,596,486	154,624,231	118,987,308	1,915,642
Thursday	April 29, 2021	237,360,493	143,793,565	99,668,945	2,721,079
Thursday	April 22, 2021	218,947,643	135,791,031	89,245,776	2,995,734
Thursday	April 15, 2021	198,317,040	125,822,868	78,498,290	3,525,204
Thursday	April 8, 2021	174,879,716	112,046,611	66,203,123	3,403,061
Thursday	April 1, 2021	153,631,404	99,565,311	56,089,614	3,358,112
Thursday	March 25, 2021	133,305,295	87,343,622	47,419,832	2,831,442
Thursday	March 18, 2021	115,730,008	75,495,716	40,981,464	2,692,381
Thursday	March 11, 2021	98,203,893	64,071,674	33,863,127	2,482,603
Thursday	March 4, 2021	82,774,284	54,201,638	27,829,503	2,233,810
Thursday	February 19, 2021	57,933,435	41,122,705	16,255,327	1,651,608

MRO With Five New Bailey Oil Field Permits -- May 13, 2021

Natural gas fill rate: link here. No longer interested or interesting.

Permian:

• link: news story; May 6, 2021; Casey Merriman below must have a very full inbox -- his/her note is seven days old; not that it matters;
  
• link: Devon Energy, Danger Noodle;
  

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$63.77	5/13/2021	05/13/2020	05/13/2019	05/13/2018	05/13/2017
Active Rigs	18	16	64	60	51

Five new permits, #38304 - #38308, inclusive:

• Operator: MRO
• Field: Bailey (Dunn County)
  
• Comments: MRO has permits for five new Bailey oil field permits, to be sited in SWSW 12-146-94;
• 38304, MRO, Goth 44-11TFH, Bailey, 283 FSL, 521 FWL,
• 38305, MRO, Stein 14-12H, Bailey, 283 FSL, 561 FWL,
• 38306, MRO, Ebert 14-12TFH, Bailey, 283 FSL, 601 FWL,
• 38307, MRO, Emiley 14-12H, Bailey, 283 FSL, 641 FWL,
• 38308, MRO, Jarman 24-12TFH, Bailey, 283 FSL, 681 FWL,

That's all.

Director's Cut scheduled to be released tomorrow.

Notes From All Over -- May 13, 2021

Disney: subscribers -- number didn't come in as good as forecast. Oh-oh.  Hulu beat on "subs." I am blown away by Hulu. It would be hard for me to find a single "streaming network" better than Hulu.

Merger: S&P Global and IHS Markit to merge. 

SRE: holy mackerel. This $124-stock is up over 2% today; up almost $3.00 / share; trading at $138.06. Pays a dividend, too, I believe.  

AAPL: I still feel strongly this company did its shareholders no favors when it did not pay a special dividend. A friend told me to write that. As if share buybacks made any difference to the average mom-and-pop retail investor.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

Gasoline: average price now $3.01 / gallon. The price may pull back slightly but will head north again if Memorial Day is a busy one. -- GasBuddy's Patrick De Haan. 

Pullback: was that it? A two-day window to buy on the dip. Sell in May. Go away? Bear trap? Head fake? CNBC:

• yesterday: higher costs, wage inflation, end of stimulus, disappointing jobs report, market collapses;
• today: higher costs, wage inflation, end of stimulus, disappointing jobs report, market has stunning reversal;

WTI: plummeting now that the Colonial Pipeline is getting back to normal. Yes, I know, doesn't make sense. See comments. Down over 3%.

Atmospheric CO2: May 13, 2021, and we still don't have the April, 2021, data. What's up with that? Link here.

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The Book Page

From Ocean Navigator, June 12, 2008:

“Running the Easting down” is an old shellback’s term for a wild ride in the Southern Ocean. 

In the golden age of sail the great clipper ships ran before the fierce westerly winds between 40° and 60° south latitude. 

Clippers left the Cape of Good Hope, Cape Leeuwin and Cape Horn to port as they sailed round the bottom of the world for thousands of miles, week after week, dodging icebergs, enduring freezing gales and coping with every kind of equipment failure, injuries and even death. 

These square-rigged ships were built to take the punishment inflicted by mountainous seas and screaming storms. In fact, the big fore- and aft-rigged schooners, so common more than 100 years ago on both coasts of the U.S., were never very successful in that kind of tempestuous sailing.

During our recent move to a new apartment, we put nearly my entire library in storage. More on that later, perhaps.

I have been reduced to a few coffee table books in the apartment and a few softcover books left in the car for something to read if caught in a stau. 

The coffee book I am now reading is fascinating: Sailing Around the World -- The Illustrated Edition, Joshua Slocum, with introduction by Geoffrey Wolff. Web link here.

Early in the book, in the introduction, p XII, I ran across that phrase, "running the easting down." At first I thought it might be a typographical error. Google provided the answer. As usual.

For someone with limited nautical experience, something tells me there will a lot of new words and new phrases

On a separate note, early in the same book, I also ran across the "Bay of Fundy." Wow, wow, wow. What a surprise. I first ran across the "Bay of Fundy" when reading a biography of Wyndham Lewis. For more at the blog on the "Bay of Fundy" place that phrase in the "search" box at the top of the blog on the left. 

New "Intellectual Froglegs" Episode Now Showing -- May 13, 2021

Link here. 

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The Word Page

This is so cool.

A reader writes me that the word of the day is "baradari" or Bara Dari. The wiki entry is here.

Baradari. Rolls off the tip of one's tongue. Baradari. "Bar the doors." Baradari.

When I got the note, I didn't pay a lot of attention to the word (I was preoccupied with Sophia) but now that I have had some to explore this is so cool.

As long time readers know, Sophia's closest friend is Anika, an American of subcontinent Indian descent. We've learned a lot about Indian history and the Indian language through her mom and because of Anika.

So, it was with great pleasure that I learned that baradari is a square shaped structure three doors on each side. 

Bara in Urdu/Hindi means "twelve" and the word dar means "door." 

Is that not cool? On top of that, to make it even move "exciting" for me is the the fact that when I was with the Air Intelligence Agency in the USAF we had a very robust corps of Urdu / Hindi speakers. Having said that,  I've learned more about Urdu after I left the Air Force than when I was on active duty, mostly because I have more free time, and because of Sophia's friends in the apartment complex. 

So, baridari, square-shaped structures with three doors on each side, yielding twelve doors. Twelve in many cultures is a magic number. Certainly in our world, twelve is a very "magic" number. Look at the clock. Look at the calendar. Look at the number of disciples. Look at the number of inches in a foot. It is the number of years required for a full cycle of Jupiter, historically considered the brightest "wandering star." The number of cylinders in an Aston Martin DB11. (James Bond's 1963 Aston Martin D86 was a straight six.) Twelve is the number of signs in the western and the Chinese zodiac. The twelve Olympians are the principal gods of the pantheon; they were preceded by the twelve Titans; Hercules carries out twelve labors. Nancy Pelosi requires twelve "spaces" if one includes the space. Same with Donald Trump.  And, of course, there are twelve rainbow colors in Unicorn-land.

Wow, that's a digression.

From wiki: 

Because of their outstanding acoustic features, these buildings were particularly well-suited for mujra dance or courtesan dance performances by the noble courtesans. They were also well-suited for live performances and private concerts by various musicians and poets in front of the ruling kings of the time. They were also valued for their fresh air during hot summers of India.

So, the word for the day:baradari. 

Vaccine Hesitancy? You Betcha -- May 13, 2021

Updates

Moving the goal posts: Wow, it never quits. Now the CDC is limiting reviews of reported breakthrough COVID infections to severe cases. -- Fortune, May 10, 2021. During the pandemic, CDC reported "anything and everything" as Covid -- which drove the numbers and buried "seasonal flu." But not only is the CDC not reporting these numbers, it's not even going to review all the break-through cases. Ignorance is bliss, apparently.

Now that there is concern about "vaccine hesitancy," the CDC will report only "severe" Covid-break-through cases -- those that require hospitalization and/or those that result in death.

Wow, just think if Americans found out that "the vaccine" is as effective as the "seasonal flu" vaccine. The "season flu" vaccine is about 45% effective -- previously report. 

Original Post

Holding out for a hero: 

Holding Out For A Hero, Bonnie Tyler

Y'all Are Gonna Need A Lot More Natural Gas -- Why Electricity Prices Rise As More And More Wind And Solar Get Added To The Grid -- May 13, 2021

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Green Fantasy Is A Nightmare

Link here. 

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Buttigieg, Biden, and The Bullet Train Back On Track

Sophia is learning about alliteration in first grade.

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#1 App At The App Store

Someone Speaks With Forked Tongue -- John Kerry On Pipelines -- May 13, 2021

Link here.

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A Closer Look At The Monster Well Petro-Hunt Is Bringing Back On Line -- May 13, 2021

The well:

• 16059, 729, Petro-Hunt, USA 2D-3-1H, Charlson, t10/06, re-entered, lengthened, 2020, first production after coming back on line, 6K over 14 days, 11/20; cum 1.782585 million bbls 11/20; off line as of 1/21; remains off line 3/21;

See these previous posts:

• May 9, 2021: update;
• full production here;
• monster wells in North Dakota;
• February 10, 2021: update;

Recent production: 

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	3-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2021	1	8	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2020	14	5955	6309	102	8201	7866	239
BAKKEN	10-2020	1	109	0	0	143	0	142
BAKKEN	9-2020	1	269	0	53	330	0	323
BAKKEN	8-2020	2	103	0	29	12	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2020	2	117	174	88	29	0	22

Production just prior to being taken off line to be lengthened:

BAKKEN	4-2020	28	3629	3722	127	7462	3454	3813
BAKKEN	3-2020	31	6393	6437	280	7374	3014	4144
BAKKEN	2-2020	29	4905	4875	327	4385	0	4183
BAKKEN	1-2020	31	5244	5270	400	4898	0	4682
BAKKEN	12-2019	31	4885	4832	603	5103	0	4887
BAKKEN	11-2019	30	3706	3813	1592	4967	0	4758
BAKKEN	10-2019	31	4726	4759	569	5103	0	4936
BAKKEN	9-2019	30	3627	3584	425	5125	0	5125
BAKKEN	8-2019	31	3447	3350	822	6079	0	6079
BAKKEN	7-2019	31	3827	3847	739	7015	0	7015
BAKKEN	6-2019	30	4197	4147	376	6592	0	6592

 

From the file report:

• new data not yet posted; still with "CONF" cover sheet; should be available by end of day.

Someone Speaks With Forked Tongue; Petro-Hunt Brings Monster Well Back On Line -- May 13, 2021

How to lose one's credibility. Link here. 

Harold Hamm: watching Scott Sheffield in his rear-view mirror. Or breathing his exhaust fumes?

Economy, essay: link here.  

Amazon: to add 75,000  new jobs at fulfillment centers; wages up; signing bonuses of $1,000; will set a record, adding one-half million jobs in one year -- has never been done before -- except perhaps factories building tanks during WWII -- but even that is doubtful;

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Back to the Reality

Active Rigs:

$64.58	5/13/2021	05/13/2020	05/13/2019	05/13/2018	05/13/2017
Active Rigs	18	16	64	60	51

Two wells coming off the confidential list -- Thursday, May 13, 2021: 25 for the month, 46 for the quarter, 127 for the year:

• 16059, 729, Petro-Hunt, USA 2D-3-1H, Charlson, t10/06, re-entered, lengthened, 2020, first production after coming back on line, 6K over 14 days, 11/20; cum 1.782585 million bbls 11/20; off line as of 1/21; remains off line 3/21;
  
• 36122, drl/NC, Slawson, Stallion 5-1-12TFH, Big Bend, no production data,
  

RBN Energy: ethanol cuts gasoline's carbon intensity some, but could it do more? Part 3.

Ethanol is a biofuel that is found in nearly 98% of the gasoline purchased at retail stations in the U.S., in most cases accounting for 10% of the gasoline/ethanol blend. This high-octane, biofuel has grown in popularity around the world, particularly over the last 20 years, due to regulations that require or incentivize its use. As governments continue to evaluate regulations to control greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, ethanol has been overshadowed by some other biofuels lately but it is expected to continue to play an important role as a pathway for meeting low-carbon mandates. Today, we discuss the history, the production, and the still-evolving role of ethanol in the global push to decarbonize.