Fact-Checking Crude Oil Production By Saudi Arabia — September 15, 2023

Locator: 456723SAUDI.

Link here. Production, y charts through April, 2023.

Link here. Production, Statista, 1998 - 2022.

Link here. Production, CNBC, current.

Link here. Production, CEIC, July, 2023, one data point without subscription.

Link here. Exports. Finally.

Link here. Most interesting. But, note the date, May, 2023.

******

From a reader.

Link here. See first comment below.

Week 37: September 11, 2023 -- September 17, 2023

Locator: 45672TOPSTORY.

Top story:

• Hunter Biden indicted: guns and drugs.
• ABC legal analyst already siding with Hunter saying case is very, very rare; has never seen anything like this
  

Top international non-energy story:

• Russian-Ukraine war continues

Top international energy story:

• 
  

Top national non-energy story:

• UAW strikes top three American auto manufacturers
• Largest IPO since Rivian: ARM / Arm chips
• Apple announces iPhone 15 and Apple Watch series 9

Top national energy story:

• WTI: closes above $91 for the week
• regardless, oil equities fell along with the market

Focus on fracking: most recent edition.

Top North Dakota non-energy story:

• 
  

Top North Dakota energy story:

• 
  

Geoff Simon's quick connects:

• Quick connects.

Bakken economy:

• holding in there

Commentary:

The EVs Wars -- An Existential Issue For Automobile Manufacturers -- September 15, 2023

Locator: 45671EVS.

Updates

September 18, 2023: link here.

Original Post 

This post has not been completed, but I'm bored with the subject and won't add anything more to this page for now.

Link here.

Wow, wow, wow.

Someone is reading the blog.

I've been saying the same thing, for several years now. Not always explicitly. 

But there it is, in Barron's -- EVs are an existential threat to the US auto companies. Ford is probably most at risk, having stated very clearly, the company will be 100% EV sooner than later. Some companies have already back-pedaled, and are moving to PHEVs as an interim option. 

We'll come back to this. The link to the Barron's article: https://www.barrons.com/articles/ford-gm-tesla-ev-war-aa553d83?mod=hp_HERO.

The headline and the lede.

The numbers are daunting. I don't think folks realize these are mature companies literally attempting to move into a new industry. Mature companies that have taken 100 years to get to where they are today.

The old industry: automobiles. Everything built around an ICE and a driver.

The new industry: batteries. Autonomous mobile batteries with walk-in baggage and/or safety observers.

So much more at the Barron's story. EV investors need to save this article and pull it out twenty years from now.

Consumer Sentiment -- September, 2023

Locator: 45670ECON.

Link here.

Updating The MRO Pelton Well In Bailey Oil Field -- September 15, 2023

Locator: 45669B.

The well:

• 17255, MRO, Pelton 24-31H, Bailey. 17255, original well drilled in 2008, thirteen years ago; and re-fracked in 2017:

• 465, MRO, Pelton 24-31H, t9/08; 
•  1,799, MRO, Pelton-24-31H, t4/17; cum 562K 10/21; cum 647K 7/23;
•  the well has produced 647,253 bbls of crude oil since it was first drilled; 
•  before the re-frack the well had produced 179,311 bbls of crude oil (over a period of 103 months);
•  after the re-frack the well produced 382,279 bbls of crude oil (over a period of 55 months)
•  after the well was re-fracked, it produced about twice as much oil in half the time that it produced prior to the re-frack.

Recent production, since 12/21:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	7-2023	26	3322	3287	3224	4174	3154	596
BAKKEN	6-2023	14	1352	1417	1497	1920	1644	91
BAKKEN	5-2023	31	3933	3811	3526	5584	4922	160
BAKKEN	4-2023	30	3792	3848	3225	4556	3791	283
BAKKEN	3-2023	31	4356	4497	4177	5856	5010	306
BAKKEN	2-2023	27	4561	4600	4187	5289	4189	603
BAKKEN	1-2023	31	6204	6182	6423	7037	4906	1457
BAKKEN	12-2022	16	2731	2649	2923	3157	2602	247
BAKKEN	11-2022	30	5701	5669	6478	6400	5039	728
BAKKEN	10-2022	31	6524	6489	7930	7343	5523	1105
BAKKEN	9-2022	30	6885	6932	9127	7160	6418	0
BAKKEN	8-2022	31	8184	8200	14123	8782	7924	0
BAKKEN	7-2022	31	9595	9638	23137	9847	8789	91
BAKKEN	6-2022	30	9077	8932	30179	7658	6664	68
BAKKEN	5-2022	25	5424	5290	26688	4602	3325	697
BAKKEN	4-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2022	2	2	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2022	0	0	136	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2021	7	288	197	205	230	131	44
BAKKEN	11-2021	30	3732	3744	2638	2978	2449	65
BAKKEN	10-2021	31	4892	4995	3863	4167	3570	38

Two MRO Bailey Oil Field Wells WIth Jump In Production -- September 15, 2023

Locator: 45668B.

The wells, from December 17, 2021:

• 18384, 394, MRO, Glenn Eckelberg 24-8H, Bailey, SESW 8-146-93, 33-025-00990, t5/10; cum 487K 10/21; production jump in 2014; the well originally drilled back in 2010; cum 628K 7/23; recent production; note huge jump in production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	7-2023	25	4601	4663	6573	7398	7140	88
BAKKEN	6-2023	30	6059	6204	8916	7823	7544	63
BAKKEN	5-2023	31	8426	8363	7041	10184	9588	297
BAKKEN	4-2023	30	9896	9872	7247	11647	11212	202
BAKKEN	3-2023	31	9258	9161	6746	10285	9410	664
BAKKEN	2-2023	28	6281	6289	7276	9092	8458	489
BAKKEN	1-2023	24	8270	8254	10677	9003	8546	258
BAKKEN	12-2022	24	8948	9009	13384	8158	7647	343
BAKKEN	11-2022	27	14104	14093	21899	12069	11224	557
BAKKEN	10-2022	31	17872	17857	35351	15571	14102	1233
BAKKEN	9-2022	30	15750	15796	45331	16188	15933	7
BAKKEN	8-2022	27	16451	16527	61968	11173	10846	126
BAKKEN	7-2022	7	5100	4802	26119	3835	3252	337
BAKKEN	6-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2022	0	0	11	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2022	29	1793	2006	1090	1147	0	821
BAKKEN	2-2022	28	1848	1825	1178	1166	0	842
BAKKEN	1-2022	31	2065	2035	1278	1304	0	940
BAKKEN	12-2021	31	2106	2157	1261	1332	0	966
BAKKEN	11-2021	30	2044	1983	1367	1292	0	942
BAKKEN	10-2021	31	2125	2093	1392	1340	0	979
BAKKEN	9-2021	30	2145	2175	1518	1348	0	990
BAKKEN	8-2021	31	2403	2392	1658	1444	0	1108

• 16729, 348, MRO, Vihon 44-8H, Bailey, SESE 8-146-93, 33-025-00647, t11/07; cum 393K 10/21; production jump in 2012; the well originally drilled back in 2007; recent production, note jump in production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	7-2023	11	197	183	712	226	149	27
BAKKEN	6-2023	29	2582	2635	2324	2586	2188	8
BAKKEN	5-2023	31	3084	3352	2799	3274	2812	0
BAKKEN	4-2023	30	3149	2923	2951	2881	2089	370
BAKKEN	3-2023	26	2700	2981	2999	2377	80	1956
BAKKEN	2-2023	20	2200	1978	2178	1924	395	1267
BAKKEN	1-2023	31	5040	5144	5941	4412	1396	2411
BAKKEN	12-2022	24	3945	3884	5411	3427	711	2302
BAKKEN	11-2022	23	4964	4736	9647	4234	1035	2676
BAKKEN	10-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2022	0	0	133	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2022	30	1062	1039	612	1074	0	804
BAKKEN	4-2022	29	998	1025	485	1082	0	818
BAKKEN	3-2022	30	1087	1111	538	1083	0	822

Updating A Few MRO Bailey Wells -- September 15, 2023

Locator: 45667B.

Updating several MRO wells, from the following links. It will take awhile to update the wells of interest. Once updated, I will link them below.

• the bountiful Bailey, December 18, 2021; all the new wells need to be updated as well as #16459; see below;
• full speed ahead, December 17, 2021; well of interest, #16729;
• a closer look at two new MRO Bailey oil field wells; December 16, 2021; well of interest, #17255;
• MRO seeks 16 wells on a standup 2560-acre unit, November 20, 2021; well of interest, #17537;
• five new Bailey oil field permits, May 13, 2021, well of interest, #38307;

The well of interest, #16459 -- another jump in production, after 14 years from original production.

• 16459, 457, MRO, Oscar Stohler 41-4H, Bailey, t10/08; cum 619K 10/21. Production jumped 30x in late 2017, from FracFocus: fracked 5/26/17 - 6/12/17;look how small this frack was, 4.5 million gallons of water; 87% water by mass; sand, 12.3% by mass; cum 705K 7/23; recent production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	7-2023	31	2709	2734	3656	5803	5555	167
BAKKEN	6-2023	23	2113	2039	2284	4304	4111	132
BAKKEN	5-2023	9	1133	1223	1205	2525	2461	28
BAKKEN	4-2023	30	4096	4122	4524	9066	8902	69
BAKKEN	3-2023	31	4544	4496	5102	9786	9549	134
BAKKEN	2-2023	28	4151	4112	4467	8359	8188	84
BAKKEN	1-2023	31	5749	5850	6439	11915	11580	126
BAKKEN	12-2022	28	5333	5317	6495	10260	9810	337
BAKKEN	11-2022	30	6555	6534	7371	13062	12624	296
BAKKEN	10-2022	31	7069	7058	7944	13628	12637	846
BAKKEN	9-2022	29	6351	6347	8870	6563	6289	76
BAKKEN	8-2022	31	7079	7168	10724	4781	4595	0
BAKKEN	7-2022	31	11187	11091	20082	17391	17051	0
BAKKEN	6-2022	30	9762	9702	18624	10445	10113	54
BAKKEN	5-2022	27	8107	8045	19622	4610	4382	28
BAKKEN	4-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2021	3	201	903	184	517	0	482
BAKKEN	9-2021	25	2067	2213	1176	4310	0	4010
BAKKEN	8-2021	30	2426	2240	1339	5025	0	4703
BAKKEN	7-2021	31	2665	2913	1255	5521	0	5167

Closed Above $91 -- September 15, 2023

Locator: 45666B.

Active rigs: 33.

One new permits, #40205:

• Operator: KODA Resources
• Field: Fertile Valley (Divide County)
• Comments:
• KODA has a permit for another Stout well, SESW 14-160-102; 
• to be sited 476 FSL and 1995 FWL

Five permits renewed:

• Grayson Mill: five Tufto permits in Williams County, Cow Creek oil field.

Seven permits canceled:

• Whiting: the following permits canceled -- USA Federal (#36584); USA Federal (#36585; two Lacey permits; three Brehm permits.

One producing well (a DUC) reported as completed:

• 36091, 1,742, XTO, Krieger 42X-17DXA,
• well of interest, #24712, Kulczyk, Alkali Creek, minimal halo effect;
• well of interest, #24711, Kulczyk, Alkal Creek, small, but definite halo effect;
  

The New Chip In The New iPhone 15 Pro, Pro Max -- September 15, 2023

Locator: 45665AAPL.

Apple's A17 will be tracked here.

Link here.

Speaking of "Arm," the new Apple A17 SoC is ARM-based. Whoo-hoo! See below.

The more I read, the more impressed I am with the "15."

I've never upgraded to a current model but I am seriously considering doing something really, really crazy.

But for now, from the linked article: --

-- oh, before I go there, important links -- 

Tech: link here.

Apple Silicon here.

Tech: CPUs, GPUS, cores, threads and all that jazz --

• part one: link here.
• part two: link here.
• part three: link here.
• part four, part four.

How many transistors on a chip?

 Look at the size of those chips. Down to 5 nm.

Intel gave up at 10 nm.

5 nm is pretty impressive.

But now, Apple is mass producing the iPhone 15 with the A17 -- a 3nm-chip manufactured by TSM.

Same link as above.

Look at this:

But let's back up:

 The Apple A17, at wiki.

Donald Hickel: The Greatest Generation — September 15, 2023

Locator: 45665ND.

Link here.

Off The Net For Awhile -- It Looks Like The Surge In Oil Prices Is Real, Rising, And Resilient -- September 15, 2023

Locator: 45664WTI.

WTI: solidly above $90 down.

Dollar jumps to 6-month high. Stronger dollar -- lower oil price. 

Weekly CDC "seasonal flu" / COVID / pneumonia data: most recent weekly data posted:

• it's very, very, very subtle but "things" look slightly better; certainly not worse.
• vaccines are now available for all three: season flu, Covid, and, RSV

Shana Tovah!

How To Cut Production Without Blaming It On Management When Sales Slow -- EVs Re-Defined -- September 15, 2023

Locator: 45663AUTOS.

From my perspective: the UAW strike is a win for the companies. In addition to everything else, CEOs will be able to blame poor quarterly results (3Q23) on the UAW strike and analysts will "buy it."

Why might auto equities be green this morning? President Biden about ready to announce another US auto bailout. LOL. No friend of the unions!

UAW strike: you know -- thinking about this -- targeting one factory at each of the Big Three -- this is a new tactic -- how this plays out -- this is quite counter-intuitive -- 

but ... the bad news -- comes at a time when the auto manufacturers need cash to transition to EVs  ...

but ... but .. but ...there is also incredibly "good news" for the CEOs -- assuming they are nimble ... 

this is an opportunity for auto manufacturers to benefit when sales of some models are slowing down significantly... manufacturers could ramp up operations where factories are not targeted for strike action and cut production elsewhere without announcing a management decision to cut production due to slow sales ... for Wall Street, it's the headline that matters, not the facts.

wow, wow, wow ... a CNBC analyst has just said the same thing.

Hunch: CEOs/management have the advantage, not the UAW ... UAW waited too long to strike ...

Am I right?

• Stellantis: on a down day for the market, Stellantis is up over 2%
• F: up almost 1%
• GM: up an incredible 2.2% on a day the Dow is down 62 points

Ford: may have to re-examine recent decision to close factory in Mexico

• it's not the hourly wage that concerns the automakers;
• it's the increased medical benefits and pension benefits
• these costs lead to re-thinking overseas factories

Automakers: partnering with battery makers to manufacture automobiles

• battery-makers: non-union, in the south
• this is very, very interesting: a paradigm shift:
• EVs are not automobiles in the classical sense
• EVs are mobile batteries with walk-on baggage

Shawn Fain can't be too happy this morning: stock market.

How can mobile batteries with walk-on baggage utilize AI?

• right now, walk-on baggage needs to input destination
• in the future, AI will determine the destination

********************************
EVs Will Generate Unprecedented Waste

Waste:

• mining dumps
• turbine blades
• batteries

And to think we were worried about plastic straws at one time.

Link here.

*************************
Apple News

Lossless audio. Link here. And here. 

Available for pre-order; Apple iPhone 15 --- available to pre-order on the 15th of September!

Production Increases By 11x -- After Nearby Frack -- Halo Effect -- Bailey Oil Field -- September 15, 2023

Locator: 45662HALO.

From the daily activity report, dated September 14, 2023.

Two producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 38619, 3,432, MRO, Wilma 41-16TFH, Bailey,
  
• 38620, 2,821, MRO, Greenshields 11-15HH, Bailey,
  

Wells of interest near #38619 and #38620 (run south, I believe);

• 18253, 344, MRO, State Ralph 31-16H, Bailey, t1/10; cum 519K 7/23; huge halo effect; see production below;
• from 1580 to 18600 = increased by 11x
  
• 16964, 315, MRO, Voigt 11-15H, Bailey, t1/10; cum 569K 7/23; no huge halo effect;
  

Production data for #18253:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	7-2023	31	10342	10345	16625	7328	7272	19
BAKKEN	6-2023	30	13035	13033	21368	9030	8969	22
BAKKEN	5-2023	31	15682	15699	25691	11389	11342	4
BAKKEN	4-2023	30	18583	18565	39146	12609	12552	10
BAKKEN	3-2023	31	18103	18041	51509	13519	13286	188
BAKKEN	2-2023	20	9640	9660	39455	6791	6669	97
BAKKEN	1-2023	10	8539	8519	37986	5912	5681	210
BAKKEN	12-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2022	22	1127	1322	824	746	0	513
BAKKEN	9-2022	30	1581	1586	1147	1034	0	718
BAKKEN	8-2022	31	1676	1624	1310	1104	0	763
BAKKEN	7-2022	31	1775	1847	1288	1160	0	807
BAKKEN	6-2022	30	1825	2000	1327	1172	0	831
BAKKEN	5-2022	31	2332	2099	1559	1445	0	1062
BAKKEN	4-2022	17	927	949	618	589	0	423
BAKKEN	3-2022	31	2055	2030	1329	1292	0	930
BAKKEN	2-2022	20	1589	1585	1071	967	0	716