Friday, September 15, 2023

Fact-Checking Crude Oil Production By Saudi Arabia — September 15, 2023

Locator: 456723SAUDI.

Link here. Production, y charts through April, 2023.

Link here. Production, Statista, 1998 - 2022.

Link here. Production, CNBC, current.

Link here. Production, CEIC, July, 2023, one data point without subscription.

Link here. Exports. Finally.

Link here. Most interesting. But, note the date, May, 2023.

******

From a reader.

Link here. See first comment below.

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Week 37: September 11, 2023 -- September 17, 2023

Locator: 45672TOPSTORY.

Top story:

  • Hunter Biden indicted: guns and drugs.
    • ABC legal analyst already siding with Hunter saying case is very, very rare; has never seen anything like this

Top international non-energy story:

  • Russian-Ukraine war continues

Top international energy story:


Top national non-energy story:

  • UAW strikes top three American auto manufacturers
  • Largest IPO since Rivian: ARM / Arm chips
  • Apple announces iPhone 15 and Apple Watch series 9

Top national energy story:

  • WTI: closes above $91 for the week
    • regardless, oil equities fell along with the market

Focus on fracking: most recent edition.

Top North Dakota non-energy story:


Top North Dakota energy story:


Geoff Simon's quick connects:

Bakken economy:

  • holding in there

Commentary:

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The EVs Wars -- An Existential Issue For Automobile Manufacturers -- September 15, 2023

Locator: 45671EVS.

Updates

September 18, 2023: link here.

Original Post 

This post has not been completed, but I'm bored with the subject and won't add anything more to this page for now.

Link here.

Wow, wow, wow.

Someone is reading the blog.

I've been saying the same thing, for several years now. Not always explicitly. 

But there it is, in Barron's -- EVs are an existential threat to the US auto companies. Ford is probably most at risk, having stated very clearly, the company will be 100% EV sooner than later. Some companies have already back-pedaled, and are moving to PHEVs as an interim option. 

We'll come back to this. The link to the Barron's article: https://www.barrons.com/articles/ford-gm-tesla-ev-war-aa553d83?mod=hp_HERO.

The headline and the lede.

The numbers are daunting. I don't think folks realize these are mature companies literally attempting to move into a new industry. Mature companies that have taken 100 years to get to where they are today.

The old industry: automobiles. Everything built around an ICE and a driver.

The new industry: batteries. Autonomous mobile batteries with walk-in baggage and/or safety observers.

So much more at the Barron's story. EV investors need to save this article and pull it out twenty years from now.

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Consumer Sentiment -- September, 2023

Locator: 45670ECON.

Link here.

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Updating The MRO Pelton Well In Bailey Oil Field -- September 15, 2023

Locator: 45669B.

The well:

  • 17255, MRO, Pelton 24-31H, Bailey. 17255, original well drilled in 2008, thirteen years ago; and re-fracked in 2017:
    • 465, MRO, Pelton 24-31H, t9/08; 
    •  1,799, MRO, Pelton-24-31H, t4/17; cum 562K 10/21; cum 647K 7/23;
    •  the well has produced 647,253 bbls of crude oil since it was first drilled; 
    •  before the re-frack the well had produced 179,311 bbls of crude oil (over a period of 103 months);
    •  after the re-frack the well produced 382,279 bbls of crude oil (over a period of 55 months)
    •  after the well was re-fracked, it produced about twice as much oil in half the time that it produced prior to the re-frack.

Recent production, since 12/21:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN7-20232633223287322441743154596
BAKKEN6-2023141352141714971920164491
BAKKEN5-20233139333811352655844922160
BAKKEN4-20233037923848322545563791283
BAKKEN3-20233143564497417758565010306
BAKKEN2-20232745614600418752894189603
BAKKEN1-202331620461826423703749061457
BAKKEN12-20221627312649292331572602247
BAKKEN11-20223057015669647864005039728
BAKKEN10-202231652464897930734355231105
BAKKEN9-202230688569329127716064180
BAKKEN8-2022318184820014123878279240
BAKKEN7-20223195959638231379847878991
BAKKEN6-20223090778932301797658666468
BAKKEN5-202225542452902668846023325697
BAKKEN4-20220000000
BAKKEN3-20220000000
BAKKEN2-20222200000
BAKKEN1-2022001360000
BAKKEN12-2021728819720523013144
BAKKEN11-2021303732374426382978244965
BAKKEN10-2021314892499538634167357038
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    Two MRO Bailey Oil Field Wells WIth Jump In Production -- September 15, 2023

    Locator: 45668B.

    The wells, from December 17, 2021:

    • 18384, 394, MRO, Glenn Eckelberg 24-8H, Bailey, SESW 8-146-93, 33-025-00990, t5/10; cum 487K 10/21; production jump in 2014; the well originally drilled back in 2010; cum 628K 7/23; recent production; note huge jump in production:
    PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
    BAKKEN7-2023254601466365737398714088
    BAKKEN6-2023306059620489167823754463
    BAKKEN5-202331842683637041101849588297
    BAKKEN4-2023309896987272471164711212202
    BAKKEN3-202331925891616746102859410664
    BAKKEN2-20232862816289727690928458489
    BAKKEN1-202324827082541067790038546258
    BAKKEN12-202224894890091338481587647343
    BAKKEN11-2022271410414093218991206911224557
    BAKKEN10-20223117872178573535115571141021233
    BAKKEN9-20223015750157964533116188159337
    BAKKEN8-2022271645116527619681117310846126
    BAKKEN7-20227510048022611938353252337
    BAKKEN6-20220000000
    BAKKEN5-20220000000
    BAKKEN4-202200110000
    BAKKEN3-20222917932006109011470821
    BAKKEN2-20222818481825117811660842
    BAKKEN1-20223120652035127813040940
    BAKKEN12-20213121062157126113320966
    BAKKEN11-20213020441983136712920942
    BAKKEN10-20213121252093139213400979
    BAKKEN9-20213021452175151813480990
    BAKKEN8-202131240323921658144401108

    • 16729, 348, MRO, Vihon 44-8H, Bailey, SESE 8-146-93, 33-025-00647, t11/07; cum 393K 10/21; production jump in 2012; the well originally drilled back in 2007; recent production, note jump in production:
    PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
    BAKKEN7-20231119718371222614927
    BAKKEN6-202329258226352324258621888
    BAKKEN5-202331308433522799327428120
    BAKKEN4-20233031492923295128812089370
    BAKKEN3-2023262700298129992377801956
    BAKKEN2-20232022001978217819243951267
    BAKKEN1-202331504051445941441213962411
    BAKKEN12-20222439453884541134277112302
    BAKKEN11-202223496447369647423410352676
    BAKKEN10-20220000000
    BAKKEN9-20220000000
    BAKKEN8-20220000000
    BAKKEN7-20220000000
    BAKKEN6-2022001330000
    BAKKEN5-2022301062103961210740804
    BAKKEN4-202229998102548510820818
    BAKKEN3-2022301087111153810830822
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    Updating A Few MRO Bailey Wells -- September 15, 2023

    Locator: 45667B.

    Updating several MRO wells, from the following links. It will take awhile to update the wells of interest. Once updated, I will link them below.

    The well of interest, #16459 -- another jump in production, after 14 years from original production.

    • 16459, 457, MRO, Oscar Stohler 41-4H, Bailey, t10/08; cum 619K 10/21. Production jumped 30x in late 2017, from FracFocus: fracked 5/26/17 - 6/12/17;look how small this frack was, 4.5 million gallons of water; 87% water by mass; sand, 12.3% by mass; cum 705K 7/23; recent production:

    PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
    BAKKEN7-20233127092734365658035555167
    BAKKEN6-20232321132039228443044111132
    BAKKEN5-202391133122312052525246128
    BAKKEN4-2023304096412245249066890269
    BAKKEN3-20233145444496510297869549134
    BAKKEN2-2023284151411244678359818884
    BAKKEN1-2023315749585064391191511580126
    BAKKEN12-202228533353176495102609810337
    BAKKEN11-2022306555653473711306212624296
    BAKKEN10-2022317069705879441362812637846
    BAKKEN9-2022296351634788706563628976
    BAKKEN8-2022317079716810724478145950
    BAKKEN7-20223111187110912008217391170510
    BAKKEN6-2022309762970218624104451011354
    BAKKEN5-20222781078045196224610438228
    BAKKEN4-20220000000
    BAKKEN3-20220000000
    BAKKEN2-20220000000
    BAKKEN1-20220000000
    BAKKEN12-20210000000
    BAKKEN11-20210000000
    BAKKEN10-202132019031845170482
    BAKKEN9-202125206722131176431004010
    BAKKEN8-202130242622401339502504703
    BAKKEN7-202131266529131255552105167



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    Closed Above $91 -- September 15, 2023

    Locator: 45666B.

    Active rigs: 33.

    One new permits, #40205:

    • Operator: KODA Resources
    • Field: Fertile Valley (Divide County)
    • Comments:
      • KODA has a permit for another Stout well, SESW 14-160-102; 
        • to be sited 476 FSL and 1995 FWL

    Five permits renewed:

    • Grayson Mill: five Tufto permits in Williams County, Cow Creek oil field.

    Seven permits canceled:

    • Whiting: the following permits canceled -- USA Federal (#36584); USA Federal (#36585; two Lacey permits; three Brehm permits.

    One producing well (a DUC) reported as completed:

    • 36091, 1,742, XTO, Krieger 42X-17DXA,
      • well of interest, #24712, Kulczyk, Alkali Creek, minimal halo effect;
      • well of interest, #24711, Kulczyk, Alkal Creek, small, but definite halo effect;
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    The New Chip In The New iPhone 15 Pro, Pro Max -- September 15, 2023

    Locator: 45665AAPL.

    Apple's A17 will be tracked here.

    Link here.

    Speaking of "Arm," the new Apple A17 SoC is ARM-based. Whoo-hoo! See below.

    The more I read, the more impressed I am with the "15."

    I've never upgraded to a current model but I am seriously considering doing something really, really crazy.

    But for now, from the linked article: --

    -- oh, before I go there, important links -- 

    Tech: link here.

    Apple Silicon here.

    Tech: CPUs, GPUS, cores, threads and all that jazz --

    How many transistors on a chip?

     Look at the size of those chips. Down to 5 nm.

    Intel gave up at 10 nm.

    5 nm is pretty impressive.

    But now, Apple is mass producing the iPhone 15 with the A17 -- a 3nm-chip manufactured by TSM.

    Same link as above.

    Look at this:

    But let's back up:


     The Apple A17, at wiki.

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    Donald Hickel: The Greatest Generation — September 15, 2023

    Locator: 45665ND.

    Link here.

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    Off The Net For Awhile -- It Looks Like The Surge In Oil Prices Is Real, Rising, And Resilient -- September 15, 2023

    Locator: 45664WTI.

    WTI: solidly above $90 down.

    Dollar jumps to 6-month high. Stronger dollar -- lower oil price. 


    Weekly CDC "seasonal flu" / COVID / pneumonia data: most recent weekly data posted:
    • it's very, very, very subtle but "things" look slightly better; certainly not worse.
    • vaccines are now available for all three: season flu, Covid, and, RSV

    Shana Tovah!

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    How To Cut Production Without Blaming It On Management When Sales Slow -- EVs Re-Defined -- September 15, 2023

    Locator: 45663AUTOS.

    From my perspective: the UAW strike is a win for the companies. In addition to everything else, CEOs will be able to blame poor quarterly results (3Q23) on the UAW strike and analysts will "buy it."

    Why might auto equities be green this morning? President Biden about ready to announce another US auto bailout. LOL. No friend of the unions!

    UAW strike: you know -- thinking about this -- targeting one factory at each of the Big Three -- this is a new tactic -- how this plays out -- this is quite counter-intuitive -- 

    but ... the bad news -- comes at a time when the auto manufacturers need cash to transition to EVs  ...
    but ... but .. but ...there is also incredibly "good news" for the CEOs -- assuming they are nimble ... 
    this is an opportunity for auto manufacturers to benefit when sales of some models are slowing down significantly... manufacturers could ramp up operations where factories are not targeted for strike action and cut production elsewhere without announcing a management decision to cut production due to slow sales ... for Wall Street, it's the headline that matters, not the facts.
    wow, wow, wow ... a CNBC analyst has just said the same thing.
    Hunch: CEOs/management have the advantage, not the UAW ... UAW waited too long to strike ...

    Am I right?

    • Stellantis: on a down day for the market, Stellantis is up over 2%
    • F: up almost 1%
    • GM: up an incredible 2.2% on a day the Dow is down 62 points

    Ford: may have to re-examine recent decision to close factory in Mexico

    • it's not the hourly wage that concerns the automakers;
    • it's the increased medical benefits and pension benefits
      • these costs lead to re-thinking overseas factories

    Automakers: partnering with battery makers to manufacture automobiles

    • battery-makers: non-union, in the south
    • this is very, very interesting: a paradigm shift:
      • EVs are not automobiles in the classical sense
      • EVs are mobile batteries with walk-on baggage

    Shawn Fain can't be too happy this morning: stock market.

    How can mobile batteries with walk-on baggage utilize AI?

    • right now, walk-on baggage needs to input destination
    • in the future, AI will determine the destination

    ********************************
    EVs Will Generate Unprecedented Waste

    Waste:

    • mining dumps
    • turbine blades
    • batteries

    And to think we were worried about plastic straws at one time.

    Link here.

    *************************
    Apple News

    Lossless audio. Link here. And here. 

    Available for pre-order; Apple iPhone 15 --- available to pre-order on the 15th of September!

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    Production Increases By 11x -- After Nearby Frack -- Halo Effect -- Bailey Oil Field -- September 15, 2023

    Locator: 45662HALO.

    From the daily activity report, dated September 14, 2023.

    Two producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

    • 38619, 3,432, MRO, Wilma 41-16TFH, Bailey,
    • 38620, 2,821, MRO, Greenshields 11-15HH, Bailey,

    Wells of interest near #38619 and #38620 (run south, I believe);

    • 18253, 344, MRO, State Ralph 31-16H, Bailey, t1/10; cum 519K 7/23; huge halo effect; see production below;
      • from 1580 to 18600 = increased by 11x
    • 16964, 315, MRO, Voigt 11-15H, Bailey, t1/10; cum 569K 7/23; no huge halo effect;

    Production data for #18253:
    PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
    BAKKEN7-2023311034210345166257328727219
    BAKKEN6-2023301303513033213689030896922
    BAKKEN5-20233115682156992569111389113424
    BAKKEN4-202330185831856539146126091255210
    BAKKEN3-2023311810318041515091351913286188
    BAKKEN2-20232096409660394556791666997
    BAKKEN1-202310853985193798659125681210
    BAKKEN12-20220000000
    BAKKEN11-20220000000
    BAKKEN10-202222112713228247460513
    BAKKEN9-20223015811586114710340718
    BAKKEN8-20223116761624131011040763
    BAKKEN7-20223117751847128811600807
    BAKKEN6-20223018252000132711720831
    BAKKEN5-202231233220991559144501062
    BAKKEN4-2022179279496185890423
    BAKKEN3-20223120552030132912920930
    BAKKEN2-2022201589158510719670716
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