Nineteen Permits Renewed But No New Permits -- January 11, 2023

Gaslighting: Almost 200 million bbls may never be returned to the SPR. I'm shocked. Shocked.

• the US DOE may not have sufficient budget to refill the petroleum reserve;
• it's such a convoluted story, I won't even attempt to break it down.
• but, that pretty much ends any more releases for political purposes in the near future
• and, we all know, the real SPR is now Saudi Arabia for heavy oil, and the Permian for light oil
• something tells me, we have a new floor for the price of oil -- whoo-hoo! 
• it should be an interesting summer.
  

Gasoline demand, link here:

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: link here.

WTI: $77.68.

Natural gas: $3.678.

No new permits.

Nineteen permits renewed:

• XTO (10): four Wood permits in Truax oil field, Williams County; five Hartel permits in Siverston field, McKenzie County; one Carus State permit, Lost Bridge, Dunn County;
• Hess (7):
• Hunt (2): two Patten permits, Parshall oil field, Mountrail County.

Weekly EIA Petroleum Report -- Most Of The Data: A One-Off -- January 11, 2023

Biggest energy story today: WTI keeps "melting up."

Holy mackerel: WTI up 3% despite huge build.

Not only that, but "days of supply" for WTI surges:  

Link here.

• US crude oil inventories jumped by 19 million bbls -- but this is a one-off -- due to recent weather;
• but look at this: at 439.6 million bbls, US commercial crude oil inventories are 1% above the five-year average. Wow, wow, wow.
• imports: yawn
• refiners operating at 84.1% operating capacity;
• distillate fuel inventories decreased by 1.1 millions and are back to a whopping 18% below the five-year average as we go into the planting season;
• propane: look at this: despite a decrease of 2.1 million bbls, inventories are a whopping 18% above the five-year average;
• jet fuel product supplied was down 0.8% -- but again, this was a one-off; machts nichts.

Gasoline demand, link here:

Despite that huge build, though it was telegraphed by the API data yesterday, WTI is up 3%:

Folks Who Disagree With "His" Decision Don't Understand Politics -- January 11, 2023

Updates

January 13, 2023:

Original Post 

This was a no-brainer and I assume the president spent less than ten seconds thinking about it. 

Ten Most Valuable American Brands -- January 11, 2023

Link here.

"Buy With Prime" -- Really, Really Exciting -- January 11, 2023

Link here.

How it works.

AppleBank -- Really, Really Exciting -- January 11, 2023

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.  

Themes: 2023. 

For investors:

• the best place to park your money now through at least the end of 2023, link here.
• cash is king? Dividends? 
• commodities: a generational opportunity?

Note: this was posted January 5, 2023.  

• Has market re-set?
• New trading range?
• New era of 5% overnight interest rates?
• Is that bad? Or just something new from which we can profit?
• How did it happen that we dropped to "free money" in the first place?
• Is cash now king? What does that mean for a company with billions in cash?
• High rates --> high monthly mortgages --> housing market crushed.
• Is auto market next? If so, the canary in the coal mine?
• EVs?

Is cash now king? What does that mean for a company with billions in cash? Apple, Inc.

That was posted on TMDW on January 5, 2023.

Today, on social media:

A few points to add:

• AAPL's biggest "outside" shareholder? Warren Buffett (BRK)?
• who does Tim Cook call when he needs investment advice? And who picks up the phone personally.
• if so, remember, if there's one thing Buffett knows and knows well, it's banks.

Really exciting. Even I have "Apple Wallet" -- linked with my non-Amazon credit card.

From CNBC, June 7, 2022:

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And More

Link here.

Earmarks -- The "Haves" And "Have-Nots" -- January 11, 2023

Updates

Later, 8:24 p.m. CT: link here. I have no problem with this. But it sounds like the project is ... well, you decide -- some curb extensions and some paint for the crosswalks and the price tag, $15 million? It turns out that there are 15 projects altogether, not just this.

 Here's the link to the original story. Fifteen projects. Good for her.

Original Post

2010, US Senator Dorgan: link here. 

 2022: US Senator Hoeven: link here.

The annual government spending bill Biden signed in March included 4,983 earmarks, ranging from $133 million to upgrade port facilities in Alabama to $4,000 to buy a vehicle lift for the Huntington, West Virginia, police department.

That money was not distributed evenly: Alaska and Vermont pulled in more than $300 worth of earmarks per resident, according to a Reuters analysis, while North Dakota, Wyoming and Montana got no earmarks at all.

2022: one of the best years ever for earmarks. 

The bigger story: what earmarks were submitted by the ND delegation that were denied by the congressional body?

Science: link here. 

The $1.7 trillion spending package that President Joe Biden signed into law last week does more than fund the entire U.S. government for the first 9 months of this year. Senators and members of the House of Representatives from both parties also used it to funnel $15 billion to 7200 projects in their districts that federal funding agencies never requested. The projects include new research facilities and academic programs at hundreds of public colleges and universities.

That spending signals the robust resurgence of earmarks, the sometimes controversial—and until recently banned—practice in which legislators reward constituents using their constitutional authority over federal spending. The dollar amount and number of earmarks rose by half over last year, according to one count by The New York Times. The new total also tops levels seen before Congress banned the practice in 2010 after some notorious earmarks drew widespread ridicule—and figured in the conviction of one lawmaker for accepting bribes.

California, Texas, Tesla And All That Jazz -- January 11, 2023

The big story today: being reported everywhere -- 1% of California residents pay 50% off California taxes. Once you throw in yacht docking fees, and sales taxes and luxury vehicles, that 1% pays a lot more than 50%.

• California: had a $100 billion just a few months ago; now a $25 billion deficit:
• governor admits the deficit is due to fact that only 1% pay state taxes ...
• will cut "climate-change" funding. Say what? That's an existential issue;
• also on the cutting board: child-care. Say what? How much is the state spending on child care; and from where are all those children coming
• supports my contention Trump mishandled the border crisis;
  
• Texas? Record-breaking $33 billion surplus;
• California: state income tax
• Texas: no state income tax
• link to WSJ;
• this is probably as good an analysis as any -- and it was written last August

After 170 years of population growth — occasionally explosive growth — California is now experiencing population loss for the first time.

As foreign immigration and birth rates declined, they no longer offset net losses in state-to-state migration. Since 2010, 7.5 million people have left California while 5.9 million people have come from other states.

That gives rise to a question: Who is leaving California and why?

“Most people who move across state lines do so for housing, job, or family reasons,” Hans Johnson, a demographer for the Public Policy Institute of California, wrote earlier this year. Johnson also notes that those who leave California tend to be poorer and less educated than those who migrate to the state, which is not surprising given that housing and jobs dominate motivations.

There is, however, a less obvious subset of those who leave California — high-income families seeking relief from the state’s notoriously high taxes.

Again, that was written six months ago.

By the way: it speaks volumes that no one mentioned the elephant in the room: Elon Musk and Tesla departing California for Texas.

Texas and here:

Speaking of Elon Musk, Tesla, and Texas: the latter is considering an additional $770 million investment in Austin, Texas. Link here.  I wonder how the Berlin gigafactory is doing? That's rhetorical: don't reply; I really don't care.

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Covid: The "Haves" and "Have-Nots"

Also being reported by The LA Times:

One Well Coming Off Confidential List; GDP Looking Good -- January 11, 2023

GDPNow: link here.

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Back to the Bakken

The Far Side: link here.

Active rigs: 43.

WTI: huge build reported by API yesterday, and WTI is up almost a buck today; trading at $76.03.

Natural gas: $3.706.

Thursday, January 12, 2023:
38735, conf, Hess, EN-Anderson-156-94-1819H-2,
37564, conf, Petro-Hunt, Jorgenson 158-94-12C-1-1HS,
27882, conf, CLR, Jersey Federal 20-6H2,

Wednesday, January 11, 2023:
27880, conf, CLR, Jersey Federal 18-6H,

RBN Energy: could a proposed EPA rule spur more refinery closures? Part 2. Archived.

Since 2019, more than 1.3 MMb/d of U.S. refinery capacity has been either shut down for economic reasons or converted to renewable diesel production. The decline in the nation’s ability to produce gasoline and diesel hampered the refining sector’s response to the post-COVID demand recovery and exacerbated the big run-up in motor fuel prices that followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last February, 2022.

Now, there may be a new threat to U.S. refining, namely the possibility that a proposed Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) rule on hydrofluoric-acid-based alkylation could, over time, spur an even larger round of refinery closures. In today’s RBN blog, we continue our look at alkylate — a critically important part of the U.S. gasoline pool — the prospective regulation and its possible effects.