Updates
October 20, 2022: link here.
Original Post
There are graphs out there that tell us -- historically -- how long it takes the stock market to recover to its previous "highs," after the Fed starts raising rates.
The steeper / faster the Fed raises rates, the longer it takes.
Going back to the steepest / fastest Fed rate increase it took 502 days to get back to market highs.
The current Jay Powell fed rate increase (JPFRI) is much steeper than anything we've seen historically.
So, perhaps the 502-day-stretch will be closer to 365 x 1.5 = 550 days.
The JPFRI began in March, 2022:
- 74 +365 = March 15, 2022 = 439 days.
- 550 - 439 = 111 days
- 74 + 111 = 185th day of the year = July 4.
550 days after March 15, 2022, will be July 4, 2024, the day the market gets back to where it was prior to the JPFRI cycle.
It doesn't matter whether we've reached "bottom" yet or not. The "trick" is simply to keep accumulating shares while they are "cheap" in anticipation of the next bull market.
The next bull market will begin a lot sooner than when the market gets back to "even."
Be that as it may, we have until July 4, 2024, to accumulate shares in the US market before the market gets back to "where it was."
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