My Refrigerator Vs Africa -- June 4, 2022

Climate alarmists never took a science course after eighth grade. Or a math course.

Link here.

But look at this chart.  

At that thread, someone wrote:

What a joke. There will be no new nuclear reactors in my investing lifetime which I forecast to be thirty years.

The Far Side -- June 4, 2022

I haven't quite decided. 

My Monday-through-Friday, "Back to the Bakken" is sacrosanct. Three items:

• active rigs / WTI
• wells coming off the confidential list
• RBN Energy

I am seriously considering adding a fourth link: The Far Side. Yes, as of 2020, Gary Larson has his own web page. 

We'll see. 

*************************
The Sports Page

Why would anyone schedule a NASCAR race in Portland, OR? OMG. SMH. ROFL. LOL. LMAO. AYKM?

Everyone has his car covered, and everyone is under an umbrella. Everyone in the stands look as uncomfortable as "hell," trying too look cool with a craft beer and it's raining. Hey, it's Portland. But it looks like they have rain-tires on and the race will start on time, although I see "machinery" out there trying to get the track ready. 

The first turn is a disaster. 

On top of everything else, an incredibly narrow track.

Why, oh, why, NASCAR in Portland? LOL. 

Noah Gragson: "The key is to keep the car on the racetrack." Okay. 

FS1 for those wondering where it is airing / streaming.

Later: now that they've started, it looks like they're running about 50 mph over most of the course.

First six laps: boring.

North Dakota Drought Has Ended -- Multiple Sources -- June 4, 2022

Previously reported, but now The Bismarck Tribune is also reporting this:

For Investors -- June 4, 2022

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.

From the "investors" tab, link here.

June 4, 2022: next week, stocks to watch --

• Apple's WWDC
• economic data to be reported:
• headline inflation:
• forecast, 8.2% y/y for May
• forecast, 8.3% y/y for April
• some see core CPI trickling down to 5.9% from 6.2 (after backing our energy, food)
• reporting earnings next week: Campbell Soup, DocuSign
• investor events: AMD, AAPL
• FB disappears; replaced by META
• dividend watch: Credit Suisse notes: IBM, CVX, KO, EMR, SWK, NEE, CL, SYY, MCD and CAT.

From that same link:

Apple WWDC preview: 

Apple (AAPL) will hold its Worlwide Developers Conference to expectations that updates to iOS/iPad OS, macOS, tvOS, and watchOS, and other software reveals will be made. 

Ahead of WWDC, the company teased an update to the Swift open-source programming language. 

Analysts think there is a chance of a "one more thing" hardware surprise, as well as a potential announcement of a NFL Sunday Ticket contract win. 

Looking ahead, Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives believes the tech giant is gearing up to bid on a number of upcoming sports packages besides the NFL that are coming up for contract/renewals in future years. 

Also of high interest, Morgan Stanley said there is the potential for Apple to tease its entrance into the mixed-reality headset market. 

What does WWDC mean for Apple shares? Over the last 10 years Apple has underperformed the S&P 500 by a median of 100 bps in the week after the event, but outperformed the S&P by 70 bps in the one month following the event.

A Reader Takes A Look At The Ovintiv Rolfsrud Well -- June 4, 2022

In reply to the post on the Ovintiv Rolfsrud well, a reader and regular correspondent sent me this note:

Just as a reminder, at current market prices, these Bakken wells are producing some serious revenue. 

100,000 barrels of oil at $100 per gives gross revenue of ten million bucks. 

Likewise, natgas at $5 per 1,000 cubic feet gives half a million bucks for each hundred million cubic feet. 

That Ovintov Rolfsrud well today produced ~220,000 barrels of oil and ~730,000,000 cubic feet of gas in its first 8 months.

This would have produced  over $25 million at $100/$5 WTI/HH. 

If one uses an $8 million dollar cost to D&C a Bakken well, one can see just how financially worthwhile these wells have become. 

Amongst other ramifications, the productive footprint for North Dakota wells - indeed, ALL the 'shale' plays - has been vastly expanded.

We're In Trouble -- Texas Electricity Rates -- The Dallas Morning News -- June 4, 2022

Of course, this is a local story -- The Dallas Morning News talking about electricity rates in Texas and then re-printed in the Grand Forks Herald. 

The linked article fails to mention one of the major reasons why electricity rates have increased in Texas in the past year. We've talked about this before.

The linked article also fails to mention the "actual" rates among the 50 states:

Most expensive, to least expensive, selected states; in bold red: New England and New York:

• Connecticut: 26.48 cents; hates pipelines, up a whopping 16.7% from a year ago
• Rhode Island: 25.69 cents, up 6.6% from a year ago 
• California: 25.59 cents; up 13.6% from last year;
• New Hampshire: 22.15 cents; hates pipelines; up a whopping 14.9% from last year
• New York: 21.58 cents; hates pipelines; up a whopping 14.9% from last year
• Maine: 20.95 cents; hates pipelines; up an incredible 29% from last year
  
• New Jersey: 15.77 cents; down 3.7% from last year
  
• Pennsylvania: 14.48 cents; lots of natural gas, up 10.7% from a year ago
  
• Texas: 12.28 cents, down 3.6% from a year ago
• North Dakota: lots of coal, 9.64 cents; lots of coal, up 1.9% from a year ago

Texas is near the bottom. North Dakota is least expensive. 

And color me impressed if any reader can show me a total utility bill (electricity + natural gas) that is lower than my total utility bill for the month of May, 2022:

My monthly bill. This is my entire utility bill. I do not have natural gas:

Yes, this is in Texas, where apparently we have a problem.

Right now, Saturday morning, 10:12 a.m. EDT:

• ISO-NY: Long Island, $100 / MWh
• ISO-NE: Boston, $70 / MWh

April 26, 2022 rates, link here, monthly cost, numbers rounded:

• Massachusetts; $230
• New Hampshire: $200
• Texas: $110 (year/year change: down 4%)
  
• North Dakota: $85

A Twofer: They're Reading The Blog -- Why I Love To Blog -- June 4, 2022

I said this a couple of weeks ago; I even had a poll: name the one thing -- with regard to energy -- that will never again be built in the US. I may find that link later, if the spirit moves me.

Now, the CEO of CVX said the very same thing. Link here. 

And that, unfortunately is what we need. We have plenty of oil, way more than we need. What we need is more refining capacity. US refiners are already working at 93% of their operable capacity, more than double what IRS employees seem capable of doing.

EVs -- After Two Decades, Still Not Ready For Prime Time -- June 4, 2022

Updates

June 4, 2022: link here. 

And this won't change. The "wait-time" will only get worse as time goes on. 

Original Post

Link here to The WSJ. 

Most interesting are the comments to this article which attempt to "defend" EVs. Those comments fall into two groups:

• the driver / writer would not have had this problem had she driven a Tesla; and,
• the highways from Chicago to New Orleans are particularly lacking in charging stations compared to other highways ... like those, say, in North Dakota, Montana, and Wyoming.

The fact is, EVs are nowhere near ready for prime time in the US. 

Exhibit A: the linked article.

Exhibit B: GM "slashing" the price of the Chevy Bolt despite record high gasoline price.

Exhibit C: how long has it been?

• when did this article appear? 2022
• when was Tesla founded? 2003

*****************************
Rivian

Link here to The WSJ:

From the linked article:

Car factories around the world routinely churn out models around the clock. 

About eight months after production on Rivian’s electric trucks started, executives recently marked a milestone in uninterrupted work days: The company’s plant ran at full speed for an entire 10-hour work shift for the first time. 

Rivian, which investors see as the Tesla Inc. of trucks, has tens of thousands of customer preorders in the burgeoning market for electric vehicles. The startup is rolling out three new models in quick succession at its freshly overhauled factory—an undertaking that even seasoned auto executives say is fraught.

Are you kidding me?

• when did this article appear? 2022
• when was Rivian founded? 2009

*********************************
Meanwhile

Link here. 

Rigs Don't Matter -- June 4, 2022

Rigs don't matter -- don't take that out of context.

Link here. 

This is an incredibly interesting graphic -- but it's subtle and my arrows are only part of the story. The rest of the graphic is so subtle in what it says I cannot explain it using written words. I may have to do a video to point out what I'm seeing. 

In addition, the graph shows another interesting phenomenon regarding the Permian (which, by the way, also applies to the Bakken, of course). Again, too hard to explain without a video. Maybe later. 

The original graph:

The graph with overlying black arrows:

Have A Great Weekend -- June 4, 2022

Link here.

In California, Taking "Self-Identificatiion" To The Next Level -- Honeybees Can Self-Identify As Fish -- June 4, 2022

This is from The Sacramento Bee, not The Babylon Bee. 

I cannot make this stuff up. 

Next, The Onion will run a story about Brussels sprouts self-identifying as okra.

Mr Greni: 50 Years Old This Year -- Happy Birthday -- June 4, 2022

Mr Greni, original post is here. Mr Greni:

5227, 624, Luff Exploration, Greni 33-26, a Red River well, t11/72; cum 1,317,961 bbs 6/19; this well has a pretty colorful history. I believe it began as a vertical well, was re-entered and two very short laterals were placed; a work-over rig in 2003 significantly increased production. Note that it was drilled in late 1972, and continues to produce about 1,400 bbls of oil per month, which is what some Bakken wells produce after the end of the severe decline rate and then begin to level off. Is that about 47 years of production? Note: over 1.3 million bbls of oil to date; cum 1.358734 4/22. Still producing nicely:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
RED RIVER	4-2022	29	1205	1425	6551	297	0	253
RED RIVER	3-2022	31	1388	1432	7382	342	0	295
RED RIVER	2-2022	28	1239	1056	6510	305	0	263
RED RIVER	1-2022	31	1357	1398	7146	334	0	287
RED RIVER	12-2021	31	1348	1390	7171	332	0	285
RED RIVER	11-2021	30	1302	1365	6959	320	0	275
RED RIVER	10-2021	31	1262	1025	7191	311	0	264
RED RIVER	9-2021	30	1300	1400	7090	320	0	275
RED RIVER	8-2021	31	1377	1401	7243	339	0	292
RED RIVER	7-2021	31	1415	1361	7070	348	0	301
RED RIVER	6-2021	30	1397	1350	7100	344	0	299
RED RIVER	5-2021	26	822	642	5432	202	0	163
RED RIVER	4-2021	29	1053	1358	5662	312	0	268

Random Update: Oldest Producing Well In North Dakota? Woodrow Star "A" 1 -- June 4, 2022

It appears CLR has bragging rights to the oldest producing well in North Dakota; full story about this well is posted here; it's quite a story. This well will be 63  years old later this year. Update today:

• 1987, 150, CLR/Pan American/Prima, Woodrow Star "A" 1, Antelope field; Sanish; t10/58; cum 1.105586  million bbls 6/19; cum 1.107755 million bbls 4/22; recent production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
SANISH	4-2022	25	140	0	53	321	0	0
SANISH	3-2022	31	251	456	122	419	0	0
SANISH	2-2022	28	246	0	105	378	0	0
SANISH	1-2022	29	246	448	87	385	0	0
SANISH	12-2021	24	252	223	82	324	0	0
SANISH	11-2021	28	237	233	118	662	0	284
SANISH	10-2021	31	262	238	112	579	0	178
SANISH	9-2021	30	209	233	120	600	0	195
SANISH	8-2021	27	212	229	127	562	0	211
SANISH	7-2021	14	114	0	222	227	0	38
SANISH	6-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SANISH	5-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SANISH	4-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SANISH	3-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SANISH	2-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SANISH	1-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SANISH	12-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SANISH	11-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SANISH	10-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SANISH	9-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

"Zero" production went all the way back to 12/18. 

Happy Birthday To You, Happy Birthday To You, .... June 4, 2022

So I don't forget, an early birthday wish, to Cedar Creek Unit 8B 14X-2A-8 -- celebrating its 61st birthday in August:

• 2949, 260, Denbury Onshore, Cedar Creek Unit 8B 14X-2A-8, Cedar Creek, unitized, t8/61; cum 474K 4/18; producing for 61 years; cum 486K 4/22;
  

Random Update Of An Ovintiv Rolfsrud Well -- June 4, 2022

The well;

• 38193, conf-->drl/A, Ovintiv, Rolfsrud 152-96-29-32-7HLW, Westberg, API 33-053-09667; first production, 8/21; t--; cum 219K 4/22; no frack data, yet;
  

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	4-2022	29	10802	10839	15934	78640	77798	842
BAKKEN	3-2022	31	15492	15525	19463	92072	91379	693
BAKKEN	2-2022	28	15861	15880	20062	84383	81061	3322
BAKKEN	1-2022	31	20609	20953	24152	81402	80411	991
BAKKEN	12-2021	31	22268	21934	24167	67964	66735	1229
BAKKEN	11-2021	30	31063	31149	35003	93467	92944	523
BAKKEN	10-2021	31	40212	40141	41791	96154	95843	311
BAKKEN	9-2021	30	41292	41310	45967	102878	101615	1263
BAKKEN	8-2021	16	21139	20823	29113	44816	44816

Incredible QEP MHA Wells In Van Hook -- Update -- June 3, 2022

These wells came off confidential list, 4Q21: 

Friday, October 1, 2021: 4 for the month, 4 for the quarter, 228 for the year:

• 35456, con-->drl/A, QEP, MHA 5-29-30H-150-92, Van Hook, first production, 5/21; t--; cum 302K 4/22;
  
• 35454, conf-->drl/A, QEP, MHA 5-27-26H-150-92, Van Hook, first production, 5/21; t--; cum 199K 4/22;
  
• 35451, conf-->loc/A, QEP, MHA 4-29-30H-150-92, Van Hook, first production, 5/21; t--; cum 342K 4/22;
  
• 35449, conf-->loc/A, QEP, MHA 4-27-26H-150-92, Van Hook, first production, 5/21; t--; cum 239K 4/22;
  

Note production for #35456:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	4-2022	22	8890	9033	0	8607	6654	1588
BAKKEN	3-2022	31	16187	16195	11774	14624	12174	1882
BAKKEN	2-2022	28	16187	16163	11660	15928	13895	1462
BAKKEN	1-2022	31	19718	19705	14055	18726	13288	4751
BAKKEN	12-2021	31	20740	20565	15820	18391	12437	5182
BAKKEN	11-2021	30	21058	21201	18922	19439	12429	6138
BAKKEN	10-2021	31	24410	24101	1216	24934	8951	15899
BAKKEN	9-2021	30	25289	25662	23669	22575	2671	19904
BAKKEN	8-2021	31	28200	27820	24573	26382	15333	11046
BAKKEN	7-2021	28	25512	25537	23564	22056	13784	8272
BAKKEN	6-2021	30	44939	44939	40408	34521	25490	9031
BAKKEN	5-2021	31	49096	48994	47281	39185	21911	17180
BAKKEN	4-2021	2	1498	1433	2416	318	221