Later: see comments.
For the record, I'm 1000% in XOM's camp.
From today to 2030, it's only seven years, and XOM has demand only going from 100 to 105; in the big scheme of things, practically flat. Meanwhile, even if BP is correct about demand being flat through 2030 (which is very, very unlikely) that descent is quite remarkable.
VLO: rasies quarterly dividend from 98 cents to $1.02 / share.
WMB: raises quarterly dividend to 44.75 cents/share.
************************
Back to the Bakken
Active rigs: 46.
WTI: $78.87.
Natural gas: $2.684.
Four new permits, #39616 - #39619, inclusive:
Four permits renewed:
Eight permits canceled:
Two producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
38626:
| Pool | Date | Days | BBLS Oil | Runs | BBLS Water | MCF Prod | MCF Sold | Vent/Flare |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAKKEN | 12-2022 | 31 | 10567 | 10368 | 13820 | 8058 | 7398 | 660 |
| BAKKEN | 11-2022 | 11 | 4297 | 4512 | 13165 | 3451 | 3372 | 79 |
| BAKKEN | 10-2022 | 28 | 12568 | 12187 | 12196 | 8154 | 8080 | 74 |
| BAKKEN | 9-2022 | 29 | 0 | 0 | 10258 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
I'm being flip, I know --- "... if we're in a recession, give me more ...." I know I may be singing a different tune three months from now, but one starts to wonder. Are the folks who are worried about a recession underestimating what might happen after "coming out of Covid-induced coma" which might, in fact, be followed by the end of a war in Ukraine? I don't know but the energy story is incredibly fascinating.
Now, if we could just get the egg situation in hand.
HP: link here.
Lotus: to go public.
*******************************
After-Hours Earnings
AMD: beats, 69 cents vs 67 cents. Shares surge, up $6/share. Link here.
On average, analysts polled by FactSet expected the medical devices company to earn 61 cents per share on $1.33 billion in sales.
In the year-earlier period Edwards earnings were 51 cents per share and the company reported $1.33 billion in sales.
For the year, Edwards Lifesciences predicted to 9%-12% sales growth, excluding the impact of exchange rates. EW stock analysts forecasted earnings of $2.49 a share and $5.79 billion in sales.
Reported earlier today:
Tuesday, January 31, 2023, dividend calendar (to include time of release), whisper number vs consensus:
The NDIC hearing dockets are tracked here.
The usual disclaimer applies. As usual this is done very quickly and using shorthand for my benefit. There will be factual and typographical errors on this page. Do not quote me on any of this. It's for my personal use to help me better understand the Bakken. Do not read it. If you do happen to read it, do not make any investment, financial, job, relationship, or travel plans based on anything you read here or think you may have read here. If this stuff is important to you, and I doubt that it is, but if it is, go to the source.
These are cases, not permits.
It's all about choosing the right horse, and again, the US is about to choose the right horse. Link here.
A must-read article from Simon Watkins: here's why Qatar is about to make a big move on Iraqi oil and gas.
Qatar’s move to buy a 30 percent stake in four US$27 billion projects in Iraq that were set to be managed entirely by France’s TotalEnergies are in line with the U.S.’s new strategy for Baghdad.
The four projects are essential to Iraq’s future as a truly independent country.
In the middle of the night. Maybe we'll finally find what we're looking for ... in the middle of the night. Wow, it never quits. "The Expectations Index is below 80 which often signals a recession within the next year."
"Within the next year." Say what. They started talking about the coming recession back in early 2022.
And, maybe even before that.
From today's social media:
This is really, really cool.
From January 30, 2023, Michael Fitzsimmons. He inadvertently waded into the decades-old argument -- dividends vs buybacks vs capital gains ... Warren Buffett vs the "typical" mom-and-pop retail investor:
So, for all those folks complaining about CVX's new dividend -- oh, give me a break. CVX threaded the needle about as well as they could:
Nothing required CVX to actually buyback anything.... $75 billion to be used at their discretion.
It really gets back to a short-term horizon vs a long-term horizon.
I'm lovin' it.
*******************
And So Is The US Market
*********************
Area Under The Curve
Update
January 31, 2023: one "word" -- AMEX.
Original Post
Re-posting from November 20, 2022:
By the way, this is where folks are really hurt by having a poor general education, particularly in math. Folks will look (briefly) at the graph below and note only the "curve" or the solid dark line. Much more important is the "calculus" -- it's the "area under the curve" that should catch your attention.
The "area under the curve." Calculus. Start here.
My reply:
Get a grip. For an investor, it's an open-book test: Mastercard, Visa, Discover, and AMEX. Not only lots of credit card activity but lots of late payments and interest rates rising. They're gonna make out like bandits.
And, oh, by the way, savings rates are at 10-year lows, not all time lows. Went much lower in the mid 2000s.
The area under the curve:
My favorite chart which correlates exactly with the chart above.
Disclaimer: this is not an investment
site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or
relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have
read here. SNAP beats estimates. Fourteen cents vs eleven cents estimate.
Starbucks: reports later this week. Least expensive coffee at Starbucks? $2.85 (or thereabouts -- I was just there two days ago). At home, K-Cup, at Amazon, as low as 27 cents. Starbucks -- 10x K-Cup.
McDonald's: link here. Reminder: a $10 McDonald's meal costs about $2.50 when homemade. A pancake breakfast at home has even bigger savings.
GM: before market open; $1.74 vs $1.68; beats, shares up. $1.39. Shares surge on news. Link here. Link here.
Earlier this morning:
12:14 p.m. CST: Pemex issues bond (singular) worth at least $1.5 billion to refinance debt -- sources.
a ten-year bond
Still looks technically bankrupt to me.
Earlier today:
Coal: Europe. He is not telling the whole story. Conveniently avoids the issue of deindustrialization and complete disruption of energy flow this past year. Another solar nut.
Now, this, from Tyler Durden:
By the way, the Biden administration killed "globalization" when the president signed the MAGA bill, the "inflation reduction act."
From the link: As proof look no further than a study published Monday by Allianz Trade which cited contract expiries and delayed wholesale pricing effects, and which according to Reuters found that German industry is set to pay about 40% more for energy in 2023 than in 2021, before the energy crisis triggered by Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
"The large energy-price shock still lies ahead for European corporates," said Allianz Trade.
As a reminder, in 2022, higher corporate utility bills were contained as long pass-through times from wholesale markets and government interventions mitigated the immediate hit from surging prices as Russia curbed fuel exports to the West. The resulting budget deficits were promptly funded by the ECB, which meant that for all the posturing, Christine Lagarde was directly funding Putin's cash build up.
But the pass-throughs are ending, which means that price increases will soon hit corporate profits across Europe by 1-1.5% and lead to lower investment, which in Germany's case would amount to 25 billion euros ($27 billion).
The silver lining is that German companies' finances are robust, while a state-imposed gas price cap would help (unless it makes things much worse).
At the same time, fears the crisis could lead to de-industrialisation and a loss of competitiveness against the United States were overdone, because labor costs and exchange rates have a bigger impact on manufacturing than energy prices.
Also, while exporters were losing market shares in areas such as agrifood, machinery, electrical equipment, metals and transport, the relative beneficiaries tended to be Asian, Middle Eastern and African, not American.Much more at the link.
The RBN Energy article is "available" for the next few days at the link below.
RBN Energy: bearish 2023 gas market punctuates last throes of shale era abundance. Archived.
The Lower 48 natural gas market has had the most bearish start to a new year in a long time. Production has been at record highs, an exceptionally warm start to January suppressed demand, and LNG exports have been hobbled since last June when Freeport LNG went offline.
The CME/NYMEX Henry Hub February gas futures contract slid to an 18-month low of $2.94/MMBtu last Thursday and expired Friday at $3.109/MMBtu, down 54% from where the prompt contract closed just two months earlier. The March contract extended the slide Monday to a 20-month low of $2.677/MMBtu. Freeport’s eventual return will restore existing export capacity, but there’s no new LNG export capacity due online this year — for the first time since 2016. After one of the tightest gas markets of the last decade in 2022, the stage is set for one of the most oversupplied markets we’ve seen in years.
But the bulls out there can take solace: 2023 will also mark the final throes of the kind of oversupply conditions that defined the Shale Era as we know it. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss how we got here and RBN’s outlook for natural gas supply and demand.
After a great re-cap of 2022 - 2023 -- and it's only January, 2023 -- RBN Energy concludes with this:
That’s 2023. Earlier we promised the bulls among you some good news, however, and here it is:
While 2023 is set up to be overwhelmingly bearish, it’s likely to be the last of its kind for some time to come.
After a slowdown in 2022-23, LNG export capacity additions will come fast and furious over the next several years.
As they do, they will outpace production growth, which will increasingly depend on pipeline expansions.
In other words, 2023 will be the last aftershock of Shale Era surpluses, as the Lower 48 gas market counts down to the next phase: a period of gas shortage and increased volatility, driven by export growth and piecemeal production growth that will be paced by the timing of midstream development.
We got a taste of what that will look like in 2022, but how out-of-whack could the market get? We’ll be back with a more detailed look at our five-year outlook in the next episode of this series.
The Far Side: link here.
Active rig: 46.
WTI: $78.60.
Natural gas: $2.676.
Wednesday, February 1, 2023: 1 for the month; 71 for the quarter, 71 for the year
39075, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Szarka 3-36-25-159N-100W-MBH,
Tuesday, January 31, 2023: 70 for the month; 70 for the quarter, 70 for the year
39043, conf, CLR, Kelling 3-4H,
RBN Energy: bearish 2023 gas market punctuates last throes of shale era abundance. Archived.
The Lower 48 natural gas market has had the most bearish start to a new year in a long time. Production has been at record highs, an exceptionally warm start to January suppressed demand, and LNG exports have been hobbled since last June when Freeport LNG went offline.
The CME/NYMEX Henry Hub February gas futures contract slid to an 18-month low of $2.94/MMBtu last Thursday and expired Friday at $3.109/MMBtu, down 54% from where the prompt contract closed just two months earlier. The March contract extended the slide Monday to a 20-month low of $2.677/MMBtu. Freeport’s eventual return will restore existing export capacity, but there’s no new LNG export capacity due online this year — for the first time since 2016. After one of the tightest gas markets of the last decade in 2022, the stage is set for one of the most oversupplied markets we’ve seen in years.
But the bulls out there can take solace: 2023 will also mark the final throes of the kind of oversupply conditions that defined the Shale Era as we know it. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss how we got here and RBN’s outlook for natural gas supply and demand.
After a great re-cap of 2022 - 2023 -- and it's only January, 2023 -- RBN Energy concludes with this:
That’s 2023. Earlier we promised the bulls among you some good news, however, and here it is:
While 2023 is set up to be overwhelmingly bearish, it’s likely to be the last of its kind for some time to come.
After a slowdown in 2022-23, LNG export capacity additions will come fast and furious over the next several years.
As they do, they will outpace production growth, which will increasingly depend on pipeline expansions.
In other words, 2023 will be the last aftershock of Shale Era surpluses, as the Lower 48 gas market counts down to the next phase: a period of gas shortage and increased volatility, driven by export growth and piecemeal production growth that will be paced by the timing of midstream development.
We got a taste of what that will look like in 2022, but how out-of-whack could the market get? We’ll be back with a more detailed look at our five-year outlook in the next episode of this series.
This is accurate: I’m still in bed. No school today. Link here.
Again, the Dakotas. Link here.
New Mexico: out-producing Mexico. PEMEX to refinance debt; technically insolvent. Owes $105 billion; $10 billion due now. The check is in the mail.
Presidential Hummer: hypocrisy. Doesn’t bother me. Bad optics for the “struggling consumer.” What a doofus.
Coal: Europe. He is not telling the whole story. Conveniently avoids the issue of deindustrialization and complete disruption of energy flow this past year. Another solar nut. And, more here.
EU: outpaced US, China in 2022. Say what?
US natural gas consumption hits all-time record: link here.
Belgium: link here.
Yup. MAGA. Link here.
Norway: go woke, go broke.
Fun fact: link here.
Now, this. And, of all things, by Charles Kennedy. Whoo-hoo!
In a new record for the Lone Star State, Texas produced 11.2 trillion cubic feet of natural gas in 2022, with growth expected to trend even higher going forward, according to the latest report from the Texas Independent Producers and Royalty Owners Association.
TIPRO also noted that Texas supplied the country with 1.83 billion barrels of oil last year.
Texas’ direct oil and gas payroll hit $48 billion in 2022, compared to $11 billion for California and $7.6 billion for Louisiana, the second and third biggest payroll contributors.
In terms of oil production, Texas’ 1.83 billion barrels in 2022 compared to New Mexico, with the second highest at 534 million barrels, and North Dakota, with 393 million barrels.
In the field of natural gas, where Texas broke a new record, the second biggest producer for 2022 was Pennsylvania, which produced 7.6 Tcf.
Gross Regional Product for the Texas oil and gas industry came in at $322 billion for 2022, a figure that represents 16% of the state’s economy. TIPRO, however, notes that the actual contribution to the state's economy is much higher, stating, “Once the typical multiplier for Gross Regional Product is incorporated, the Texas oil and natural gas industry supported 40% of the Texas economy.”
That all earned the state of Texas $24.7 billion in taxes and royalty payments from the oil and gas industry last year.
Elsewhere, from various sources:
Tuesday, pre-market: across the board, great earnings. Shares initially up on news but then profit-taking, last day of the month.
Struggling consumer: link here.
Struggling consumer: link here.
********
Tuesday, January 31, 2023, dividend calendar (to include time of release), whisper numbeer vs consensus:
************************
Remodeling
This is really quite bittersweet for me.
I grew up with Apple.
If there's been one constant in my life, it's been Apple.
I'm actually a bit sad -- I wear nostalgia on my sleeve, as they say -- to see this.
This is probably right up there with the original White Castle.
*********************
A Musical Interlude
I occasionally follow the Wuhan flu -- Covid-19 -- at this post.
Isn't this interesting? Who would ever have thought that the "emergency declaration" some years ago would cross paths / intersect with the "southern surge"?
The Biden administration has a real mess on their hands.
"Everyone" knows that it's time to lift the "emergency declaration" but with the "southern surge" still in play -- lifting of Title 42 --
"Letting the emergencies expire would also lift Title 42 immediately, which the OMB said Monday would "result in a substantial additional inflow of migrants at the Southwest border."
So, what's the administration to do?
This is where the GOP is not being helpful. Again.
Biden has apparently made this decision:
President Biden told Congress on Monday that his administration will end twin emergencies related to the COVID-19 pandemic on May 11, 2023, more than three years after they were enacted.
The COVID-19 national emergency is set to expire on March 1, while the public health emergency (PHE) will expire on April 11. The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) wrote in a Statement of Administration Policy that Biden will extend both emergencies to May 11, at which point they will expire.
Some members of the GOP want an "immediate end" to the emergencies.
I have no comment. This is simply for the archives.
I've long forgotten the particulars, but a reader "recently" asked about the Rainbow Oil Field in Williams County. See map here.
In today's Daily Activity Report:
Link here. Yes, I have this one. Well, I used to have it. I gave it to my son-in-law. I've long forgotten how much I paid, but it must have been less than $300 because that's pretty much my limit when it comes to Lego, and that's very rare for me to buy sets that expensive.
From Amazon:
Now, from The Wall Street Journal today:
See this post: the US remains "the natural gas king."
Now, this today, from the EIA:
********************************
Archived
I wouldn't pay to much attention to any of the numbers below but it helps put things in perspective. The numbers below simply tell me how fast natural gas reserves grew with the "Bakken revolution."
How does this compare to the earlier note, from 2018?
From oilprice, the data comes from BP's annual review, 2017 data.
US natural gas reserves, February 13, 2018, EIA:
What about the rest of the world back in 2013?
Active wells: 46.
WTI: $77.93.
Natural gas: $2.691.
Three new permits, #39613 - #39615, inclusive:
Twelve permits renewed:
Six permits canceled:
Three producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
Lots of interesting background information.
This particular paragraph (which I broke up into smaller bites) caught my eye and why I'm linking/posting the story:
When pricing its grades into Asia, Aramco cut the lighter ones much more than the heavies, a trend that it also followed with its European prices where Arab Light was lowered by $1.40 per barrel, coming in at a -$1.50 per barrel discount to ICE Brent.
In just six months since September 2022, the average formula price in Asia plummeted by $8 per barrel, whilst in Europe the decline was milder, only $5-6 per barrel.
Just as Saudi Aramco finalized the merger of Aramco Trading and Motiva Trading, moving all of its trading activity under one umbrella, prices of US-bound cargoes continue to boggle the mind as the Saudi NOC rolled over the same prices for the fourth straight month.
Hardly a surprise than exports to the United States are a mere quarter of what they were in early autumn, competing with late 2020 readings for the title of weakest flows on record with only three tankers departing towards the US this month.
See US-Saudi imports, this link.
JetBlue pilots: approve contract extension that comes with 21% in raises.
Boeing: will add a new 737 Max production line to meet strong demand.
Costco: preparing to raise its membership prices.
Ports: a lagging indicator.
For the archives, but even more so, for investors. This is great news for investors. Think Warren Buffett and all those Geico-insured cars that weren't "totaled" by hurricane flooding.
And, oh by the way, insurers raised their rates after the hurricanes the previous season.
Locator: 33021.
Updates
Later, 1:25 p.m. CT: It's all about margins.
Original Post
Price wars begin (wow, that was fast): https://twitter.com/GuyDealership/status/1620057370603945986.
This speaks volumes about the future of EVs:
From The WSJ today:
