Updates
Later, 9:54 p.m. CT: the US equity markets futures have been climbing all night. Futures Sunday night mean squat Monday morning but ... all the same ... and WTI is up almost 1%. .... interestingly ... Louisiana Light is down 4.32%, down almost $3.00 --- but that may be old data .... trading at $64.39 -- again. the data may be old ....
Original Post
It's not important any more, at least to me, that the masses don't understand this. It's only important that I, as an investor, understand this.
For the choir:
Are wind, solar, and batteries the magical solutions to all our energy needs? Or do they come with too high a price?
Mark Mills, Senior Fellow at the Manhattan Institute, analyzes the true cost — both economic and environmental — of so-called green energy.
Have you ever heard of "unobtanium"?
It's the magical energy mineral found on the planet Pandora in the movie, Avatar. It's a fantasy in a science fiction script. But environmentalists think they've found it here on earth in the form of wind and solar power.
They think all the energy we need can be supplied by building enough wind and solar farms; and enough batteries.
The simple truth is that we can't. Nor should we want to—not if our goal is to be good stewards of the planet.
This is where the masses quit reading.
Investors continue to read.
To understand why, consider some simple physics realities that aren't being talked about. All sources of energy have limits that can't be exceeded. The maximum rate at which the sun's photons can be converted to electrons is about 33%. Our best solar technology is at 26% efficiency. For wind, the maximum capture is 60%. Our best machines are at 45%. So, we're pretty close to wind and solar limits. Despite PR claims about big gains coming, there just aren't any possible. And wind and solar only work when the wind blows and the sun shines. But we need energy all the time. The solution we're told is to use batteries. Again, physics and chemistry make this very hard to do.
Consider the world's biggest battery factory, the one Tesla built in Nevada. It would take 500 years for that factory to make enough batteries to store just one day's worth of America's electricity needs. This helps explain why wind and solar currently still supply less than 3% of the world's energy, after 20 years and billions of dollars in subsidies. Putting aside the economics, if your motive is to protect the environment, you might want to rethink wind, solar, and batteries because, like all machines, they're built from nonrenewable materials.
Consider these sobering numbers:
A single electric-car battery weighs about half a ton. Fabricating one requires digging up, moving, and processing more than 250 tons of earth somewhere on the planet. Building a single 100 Megawatt wind farm, which can power 75,000 homes requires some 30,000 tons of iron ore and 50,000 tons of concrete, as well as 900 tons of non-recyclable plastics for the huge blades. To get the same power from solar, the amount of cement, steel, and glass needed is 150% greater.
By the way, none of that activity is part of CO2-emissions calculation when Elon Musk says his Tesla has a zero-carbon footprint.
Then there are the other minerals needed, including elements known as rare earth metals. With current plans, the world will need an incredible 200 to 2,000 percent increase in mining for elements such as cobalt, lithium, and dysprosium, to name just a few. Where's all this stuff going to come from? Massive new mining operations. Almost none of it in America, some imported from places hostile to America, and some in places we all want to protect.
Australia's Institute for a Sustainable Future cautions that a global "gold" rush for energy materials will take miners into "…remote wilderness areas [that] have maintained high biodiversity because they haven't yet been disturbed."
And who is doing the mining? Let's just say that they're not all going to be union workers with union protections.
Amnesty International paints a disturbing picture: "The… marketing of state-of-the-art technologies are a stark contrast to the children carrying bags of rocks." And then the mining itself requires massive amounts of conventional energy, as do the energy-intensive industrial processes needed to refine the materials and then build the wind, solar, and battery hardware.
Then there's the waste. Wind turbines, solar panels, and batteries have a relatively short life; about twenty years. Conventional energy machines, like gas turbines, last twice as long.
With current plans, the International Renewable Energy Agency calculates that by 2050, the disposal of worn-out solar panels will constitute over double the tonnage of all of today's global plastic waste. Worn-out wind turbines and batteries will add millions of tons more waste. It will be a whole new environmental challenge.
Before we launch history's biggest increase in mining, dig up millions of acres in pristine areas, encourage childhood labor, and create epic waste problems, we might want to reconsider our almost inexhaustible supply of hydrocarbons—the fuels that make our marvelous modern world possible.
And technology is making it easier to acquire and cleaner to use them every day. The following comparisons are typical—and instructive:
It costs about the same to drill one oil well as it does to build one giant wind turbine. And while that turbine generates the energy equivalent of about one barrel of oil per hour, the oil rig produces 10 barrels per hour. It costs less than 50 cents to store a barrel of oil or its equivalent in natural gas. But you need $200 worth of batteries to hold the energy contained in one oil barrel.
Next time someone tells you that wind, solar and batteries are the magical solution for all our energy needs ask them if they have an idea of the cost... to the environment. "Unobtanium" works fine in the movies. But we don't live in movies. We live in the real world.
I'm Mark Mills, Senior Fellow Manhattan Institute, for Prager University.
August 22, 2021: it appears Continental Resources has "FI" units in all their plays. My hunch becomes more likely simply: "fill-in units." See this very, very good article from 2017.
From the linked article:
Continental Resources recently announced a record-setting density project in the SCOOP Woodford Condensate fairway. The Sympson 10-well project reportedly had a combined 24-hour peak of 47,701 BOE, an Oklahoma density unit record according to Continental. Although this project garnered the most attention, it was Continental's third 10-well density project in the SCOOP Woodford thus signaling the Company’s sustained confidence in the opportunity it sees in its assets there.
It’s been said that opportunities don’t happen, one creates them. The recent CLR announcement got me to thinking about Opportunity, in general, and specifically, the potential of Woodford Condensate development and production. When I think about Opportunity, it has elements of the right timing, location, vision, and risk, as well as patience. Throughout my research on this area, I see the opportunity Continental is creating with its Woodford acreage and thought it might be interesting to analyze the Sympson Unit announcement through the elemental lens of “Opportunity.”
Let’s begin with Location. Obviously, without the optimal location, the Sympson wells wouldn’t have made the Oklahoma record books. Back in mid-2011 Continental embarked on a covert leasing operation focusing on the thick oil and condensate-rich areas of the Cana-Woodford in Carter, Stephens, Garvin, and Grady counties – historically some of Oklahoma’s top oil-producing areas. The map [at the linked article] is based on the cumulative production of wells that were active and producing during January-May 2017.
And here's the "fill in":
The Sympson is a dual zone, a 2-mile long unit containing 14 wells creating a 10-well pattern. Two one-mile parent wells and 12 children wells of various lengths were required to fill in the 10-well 1,280-acre unit pattern. The result the equivalent of 5 wells in the Upper Woodford and five wells in the Lower Woodford. The 12 new wells produced at an average 24-hour peak production rate of 3,145 Boe per day (11% oil), and on average the wells are performing in line with the 2.3 MMBoe type curve.
Salmon. A very concerning story: declining salmon population threatens fishing tourism in Pacific Northwest. In The WSJ. Obviously Sarah Trent is trying to take our minds off Antifa. I have yet to hear of any tourist forsaking Portland because of the declining salmon population, but lots of tourists avoiding Portland for other reasons.
Runs: speaking of salmon runs, Sha'Carri Richardson finishes last -- ninth in a field nine -- in showdown with Tokyo Olympics medalists. Defiant to the end. Link here. My hunch: her endorsements are coming to an end. Even Avis, who always finishes second, can't fit her into their rotation.
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The Book Page
WSJ review of John Keats / F. Scott Fitzgerald, Bright Star, Green Light: The Beautiful Works and Damned Lives of John Keats and F. Scott Fitzgerald, Jonathan Bate, Yale, 435 pages, c. 2021.
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The Recipe Page
Smart scallops: how to avoid overcooking. a.
Did anyone ever connect the dots?
Saudi crude oil inventories, link here:
From July 19, 2021, link here.
This chart simply amazes me: link here. Story here by Charles Kennedy.
Covid-19:
Something I wish I had never posted. Oil prices unlikely to collapse any time soon. Link to oilprice.com. From August 19, 2021.
Talk about poking a finger in the eye of the Greek god of petroleum, Ladi, a most unpredictable and unforgiving god, known for disliking the Arabs. A number of American shale oil CEOs regularly pray to Ladi, CFOs and investors as human sacrifices, but generally without anything to show for that generosity.
Delta's gift is hybrid immunity. Link here to The WSJ.
Four weeks in July: inside the Biden White House while "struggling" to contain the delta surge. Link to The Washington Post. Not behind a paywall?
Sports venues:
Data: daily new cases -- one would expect this number to be much great then last year -- "everyone" is being test on an almost daily basis -- not entirely true, but it sure seems like there's been a lot of announcements requiring testing.
DCCC - Nancy Pelosi fundraiser -- NAPA: no masks: link here. Except for the slave staff.
Warren Buffett: make income while you sleep. Number one on that list of three: ONEOK. Yield, 7.3%.
OKE has an investor-friendly management team. The company has provided a stable dividend for over 25 years. For the past 18 years, they have provided consistent dividend increases. The current dividend of $0.935/ share calculates to a 7.3% annualized yield. OKE has the third-highest dividend yield in the S&P 500 behind Altria and Lumen Technologies. Not just that, OKE has significantly outperformed the S&P 500 in the past 15 years.
For the record, I've been accumulating OKE for my daughters and grandchildren for years, first brought to my attention by a reader. Thank you very much.
Very scary thread for shale oil energy investors. The author is very, very well respected. I take him seriously -- assuming he's a "he" and binary. Link here.
Recession: I just mentioned the possibility of a recession later this year in a blog post a couple of days ago. Now this headline from another business source dated August 20, 2021: "Flash Recession" Could Hit Markets By The Fall. Rationale:
Markets are acting like the global economy is headed for a slowdown, according to Bank of America.
Unprecedented amounts of fiscal and monetary stimulus have been unleashed into the global economy, yet reopening trades and other trades indicating increased appetite for risk-taking are seeing a W-shaped recovery, indicating momentum is petering out.
The tale of the tape is "recessionary," wrote Michael Harnett, chief investment strategist at Bank of America, pointing to the action in U.S. Treasurys, commodities and global equity markets.
In the U.S., the yield curve when measured by the five-year and 30-year yields, fell to 110 basis points this week, the flattest in a year. A flatter yield curve indicates growth is likely to slow in the months ahead.
The last "flash recession": the last time this happened was just a year ago (?) and last .... drum roll ... thirty-three days. Shortest "recession" on record. It was steep and it turned out to be a great buying opportunity.
The Fed: the Fed has canceled its annual Hajj to Jackson Hole, WY, due to concerns about the delta virus, despite the fact that by that time this surge is pretty much over, and the actual number of folks descening on that western enclave is far less than the number who attended the birthday bash on Martha's Vineyard, just as the delta surge was beginning.
Unemployment benefits forever. Link here. If anyone has ever done any strategic planning, this is right on cue.
One wonders if these "transitory" power states will be like "transitory inflation."
Record: electricity demand in lower 48 states reaches a high of 720 gigawatthours on August 12, 2021 -- a couple of things
New England: Clean Energy Connect transmission line -- shut down by judge; absent some late reversal on appeal (highly unlikely), the project faces years' long, DAPL-like, delay and probably cancellation. Update from earlier this spring. Reader's note suggests the project is delayed once again by judge.
We first mentioned this project on the blog on August 6, 2021, thanks to an alert from Geoff Simon.
In the 11+ years I've been blogging, I've never read an article on a drought in eastern North Dakota, whereas the western third of the state seems to be in a perpetual and never-ending drought.
From a reader today:
From a reader:
I am inherently suspicious of this kind of project.I really don't like taking water out of the southern-draining Missouri and rerouting it to drain into Hudson BayI really, really don't like it because it gives the eastern part of the state a reason to be interested in how much water we use to frack.I suspect that rather than prepare for a rare drought, what they really want to do is pump flood water the other direction. Many more floods in the Red River than droughts. Of course, it costs money to pump water uphill.
World data:
Tell me again the purpose of the full year Fauci lockdown.
The graphs for the US and most of the states look practically identical. Some states are much worse, e.g., Louisiana and Tennessee regarding the most recent wave.
Israel's third wave is as bad as, or worse, than any other country, with exceptions of course, and they are perhaps the most vaccinated country in the world.
In the US, Oregon is one of the most vaccinated states and its current wave is one of the worst in the states right now.
South Dakota: yawn.
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From A Reader
A reader who tracks this more closely than I do and maybe even understands it better than I do now that we've had a year's worth of data to review:
Well, Israel is supposedly the most vaccinated country in the world - and 85 % of their hospitalized COVID patients are double shotted, or triple shotted.https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/08/grim-warning-israel-vaccination-blunts-does-not-defeat-deltaMost COVID-19 Patients at Israel Hospital Fully Vaccinated, Doctor Calls Mandates ‘Diabolic’ - Vision TimesSo, I think of the Israelis are quite a focused nation - and the vaccine isn't working well there. This does not surprise me.
As a matter of fact, I tried to get folks to bet with me early on. I maintained that our vaccines wouldn't be any more effective than the normal flu vaccines - and in the last 10 years the flu vaccine has been less than 50 % effective on average, and in one year didn't break 20%. Not only that, the trend is a downward slope. The last 6 years averaged 35% effectiveness. A coin flip has better odds than all but 3 years! Oh, nobody would bet. They all said this was different, focused research, specific development, yada yada.
But, talk's cheap... if they won't bet = ha! I heard all about how our normal flu vaccine had to be developed in advance, predicting what the strain would be, yada yada. Of course, I knew that. My point was did they think this virus would just hang around and not mutate? Oy vey. Oh, this was going to be 90% effective, and we were going to wear masks, and we were going to sanitize our hands, and we were going to have one-way traffic in grocery stores, and we weren't going in grocery stores - they were bringing the groceries to the car, yada yada.
That chart is straignt from the CDC.I think I mentioned that I have friends who thought they went into hard lockdown. They aged their mail overnight in the garage before bringing it in - and I think it was Lysoled in the interim. She ordered her groceries online, and I think there was Lysol involved before they were brought in....I believe they cut each other's hair. She and I had lunch early this summer - hadn't seen her in over a year. She selected a restaurant with patio dining.... But, in the middle of their draconian measures, she went in to have her face lift retouched. (;>)So, everybody's definition of lockdown was different.During the Spanish flu, Grand Junction managed to avoid any flu deaths. People patrolled the town perimeter - armed people. No one came in. Nothing came in. Now, that's a lockdown.Back to the Israeli numbers - can the USA numbers be that different? Or is it just a difference in measurement/reporting here. We're sure being led to believe a different story.Of course, New Mexico has locked down everything except our southern border. If folks from Sandia Labs (weapons research - huge employer) went out of state, they had to quarantine when they came back. But, that border has been wide open since the day Biden arrived............India has double vaxxed fewer than 8 percent of its population. And we're still accepting international travelers - even when they come in on a scheduled aircraft - not to mention all the weary "pilgrims" that stream in thru Mexico.
These three Slawson wells coming off the confidential list this week, the week of August 22, 2021. The "whirls" run north; the Snipers run south:
The other three wells on this Slawson pad are all off line:
The wells:
| Date | Oil Runs | MCF Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 6-2021 | 39593 | 38101 |
Monday, August 30, 2021: 16 for the month, 27 for the quarter, 207 for the year:
None.
Sunday, August 29, 2021: 16 for the month, 27 for the quarter, 207 for the year:
None.
Saturday, August 28, 2021: 16 for the month, 27 for the quarter, 207 for the year:
None.
Friday, August 27, 2021: 16 for the month, 27 for the quarter, 207 for the year:
37920, conf, Slawson, Whirlcat Federal 5-31-19TFH,
Thursday, August 26, 2021: 15 for the month, 26 for the quarter, 206 for the year:
38203, conf, CLR, Kelly Draw SWD,
37919, conf, Slawson, Sniper Federal 3-7-7H,
Wednesday, August 25, 2021: 14 for the month, 25 for the quarter, 205 for the year:
37918, conf, Slawson, Sniper Federal 4-6-7TFH,
Tuesday, August 24, 2021: 13 for the month, 24 for the quarter, 204 for the year:
None.
Monday, August 23, 2021: 13 for the month, 24 for the quarter, 204 for the year:
None.
Sunday, August 22, 2021: 13 for the month, 24 for the quarter, 204 for the year:
37988, conf, CLR, Harms Federal 18-33H, Antelope, producing,
Saturday, August 21, 2021: 12 for the month, 23 for the quarter, 203 for the year:
36078, conf, Petro-Hunt, Hurinenko 144-98-11C-2-2H, Little Knife, no production data,
