Thursday, August 19, 2021

Notes From All Over -- August 19, 2021

US crude oil imports:

  • summer of 2021, the last twelve weeks:

  • same period, one year ago, 2020:

US crude oil imports, some thoughts:

  • look at the huge jump (as a percentage) in imports starting in August, 2021
  • part of this is due to the mix of types of oil desired; US top heavy in light oil; needs heavy oil from Canada, Mexico, Russia
  • part of this is due to price / competition
  • most of this simply due to a comparison with the year of the plague (2020); a better comparison would be with 2019;
  • big question: to what extent is domestic production not keeping up?
    • to what extent is domestic production not keeping up by design;
    • to what extent is domestic production not keeping up simply because it cannot;

Saudi crude oil inventories, link here:

Afghanistan: social media video coming out of Kabul suggests:

  • things are going to get much worse, sooner (before August 31, 2021) than later
  • more US combat troops will have to be sent in,
  • and even then, it may not be enough

Sensing a pattern here, from social media earlier this morning. Highlights from President Biden's ABC interview:

  • did not "recall" being warned by US military to not push ahead with his plan;
  • did not know US has troops in Syria
  • did not know certain events in Kabul happened this week
  • said people falling "off" US transport aircraft happened "four, five days ago"; in fact, that happened the day before the interview
  • did not know people were getting killed
  • most commonly used "legal phrase" in the interview: "I do not recall." 
  • it's my experience folks generally don't believe "I do not recall" answer, but in this case, it's probably accurate. Very accurate.