Daily Activity Report -- Yesterday And Today -- Thirteen New Permits -- December 15, 2023

Locator: 46241B.

API: link here.

Analysts forecast a draw of 2.3 million bbls. 

In fact, the inventory went in the opposite direction, a build of more than a half-million bbls. In fact, there was a build of everything including Cushing and the SPR. 

WTI closed lower, at $72.32 when I last looked. WTI with a 6-handle is almost a given; some predicting into the 50s. Is oil "dead money"? Saudi in deep doo-doo.

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: 41.

Daily activity report yesterday and today, thirteen new permits, #40363 - #40375, inclusive

• Operators: Enerplus (8); Slawson (3); Zavanna; and, Iron Oil
  
• Fields: Little Knife (Dunn); Pleasant Hill (McKenzie); Stockyard Creek (Williams); and, Bully (McKenzie)
  
• Comments:
• Enerplus has permits for four LK Quilliam wells and four LK Erickson wells, SESW 11-147-97;
• to be sited 498/499FSL and between 1810 FFWL and 2055 FWL.
• Slawson has permits for three Kahuna wells, section 3, 6-149-99; 
• to be sited 320 FNL and between 2224 FWL and 2324 FWL;
• Zavanna has a permit for a Sawyer well, SESE 13-154-99; 
• to be sited 504 FSL aand 884 FEL;
• Iron Oil Operating has a permit for a Stocke well, SESW 36-149-100,
• to be sited 400 FSL and 2386 FWL

Three permits renewed:

• 32381, BR, Hawktail,
• 34363, Formentera, FLX4,
• 34365, Formentera, FLX4,

Six producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 39333, 785, CLR, Hegler 6-13H,
• 39334, 515, CLR, Hegler 7-13H1,
• 39461, 1,091, Hegler 5-13H1
• 39336, 842, Hegler 9-13H1,  
• 39360, 1,312, Hegler 3-13HSl1,
• 39359, 1,032, Arthur 3-12HSL1,
  

Kamala Harris And The Presidency -- December 5, 2023

Locator: 46240HEADLINES.

Breaking: the 10-year-Treasury just dropped below 4.2% -- the lowest since September, 2023. The "inversion" has worsened. But folks "invested" in Treasuries, are truly "invested in Treasuries and that's not going to change for quite some time. Folks absolutely don't accept that the US economy is doing well, and that all indications are that the economy is getting better.

Senator Tuberville: blinks. He disrupted the lives of many service men and women; I wonder if his stubbornness changed anything.

Kamala Harris: sets all-time record for most tie-breaking votes in the US Senate. In other words, Kamala Harris is determining the outcome of a lot of new bills. She's running the US Senate. If she can run the US Senate, can she run the country? Worse, much worse, have been served as presidents of the US.

High-speed rail: LA to LV. $3 billion in funding raised.

From the Bat Cave today:

Unless there's some breaking, big news, I think I'm done for the day.

I learned a lot today.

The weather is incredible.

Time to get out and about.

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Ranking US Presidents

Link here.

Brief, preliminary, not-ready-for-prime-time comments below.

This Does Not Look Like An Impending Recession -- December 5, 2023

Locator: 46239HEADLINES.  

Inflation running about 3%. Meanwhile, AAPL appreciated 52% y/y. In fact, if it were not for "shelter," inflation would be a lot less, and even risk of deflation.

AAPL:

Lego: again, speaks volumes with regards to the economy:

AAPL: Surges — $3.01 Trillion Market Cap (Again) — December 5, 2023

Locator: 46238HEADLINES. 

Lego: again, speaks volumes with regards to the economy:

No has mentioned it yet? Why is oil plummeting in price?

• what is oil? A commodity
• what do commodities do during an inflationary environment? Commodities surge.
• what does oil do when the dollar strengthens?
  
• Q.E.D. If you know, you know.

Dollar: the Chinese, Europeans, really do like us. LOL. 

Chart of the day: both of these tickers have been around forever. Five years ago we all had the same information. Hindsight is 20/20:

BITCOIN: going up almost parabolic. (See comments.) What does BITC need? This is not a trick question.

AAPL: up almost $5 / share today. AAPL 52-week high at $198 but highest 52-week close at $195. AAPL high at $194.40 today.

NVDA: up $8 / share. P/E - 20 — 2025 projected earnings. Price target: $750. Trading ceiling / resistance right now? $500.

TSLA: surging -- Barron's. 

BRK-B: down almost $4 / share.

INTC: down about a percent.

AMD: down.

Smucker: surprise. Speaks volumes about the economy. This also.

Campbell's: down 28% in the past year. Shows no disinflation and yet can't excite investors. Campbell's had the same problem as Hormel. Previously discussed.

Biggest lesson folks are learning: the relationship between US debt and inflation. Not one analyst on CNBC talks about the US debt / deficit and the market in the same breath. If you know, you know.

• I don’t think folks get “it” yet.

Ten-year T: trending toward 4% -- right now -- 4.174%. What happens if TYT goes below 4%. Only 15 basis points from 4%.

VIX: at 13. 

JOLTS jolted the market? Josh Brown doesn't buy it. Forecast, 9.6 million vs actual, 8.7 million. The Fed should love this.

Recession? I guess we're gonna get through 2023 without a recession. Now -- on to 2024.

Josh Brown: still gets it. Wow, wow, wow -- he just connected the Fed, inflation, PCE, and shelter. Amazing. "Absurd shelter data from one year ago." The bulls understand what's happening. Doesn't matter when first rate cut comes, Q1 or Q4. Consensus: if first rate cut comes NST July, 2024, it will be a) (too) late; and, b) JPow will be forced to move faster in second half than most Fed members would like.

ROM-COM; This is absolutely crazy. Someone gets it. This is simply amazing. The difference between BRK and WMT. Whoever thought of this? A genius. Apple actually inspired this. Popular in China. Just starting to take off in the US. “The Bachelor” on steroids. Will FTC / US Congress find a problem with this? On another down day for the Dow, WMT is up nicely.

WSJ videos getting better and better. Exhibit A.

Inflation slows to lowest rate since 2021. Link here. Inflation right now: essentially house prices. Let that sink in. Bigger story right now: deflation. If you know, you know. 

Dion Rabouin. Google Dion rabouin videos. Link here. Russia doesn’t have a “monopoly” on jailing reporters. Uses large-screen MacBook Air? 

Better late than never: NDIC posts yesterday’s daily activity report. I’ll summarize later. But high points:

• active rigs: 40 — going into the winter — interesting
• DUCs reported completed: 10
• Enerplus with 8 new Quilliam / Erickson permits in Little Knife oil field; spud separation: 35 feet

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source. 

WTI Trending Toward $70 -- December 5, 2023

Locator: 46237HEADLINES.

Investing: not only "conviction" stocks, but cream of the crop -- AAPL and NVDA. Goldman Sachs. Link here.

ATT: partners with Ericsson. Says adios to Nokia.

Nvidia: for those who missed it, a great blog on supercomputers.

EVs infrastructure:

AAPL: after a bit of a scare yesterday, it appears that AAPL is back above $190. We'll see.

Inflation killer: CVS to lower drug costs. Link here. You can all send a thank-you note to Amazon Pharmacy and Mark Cuban and, perhaps, even President Biden. CVS must be getting slammed by on-line pharmacies -- or they see what's coming down the road. From the linked article:

CVS Health , the nation’s largest drugstore chain, will move away from the complex formulas used to set the prices of the prescription drugs it sells, shifting to a simpler model that could upend how American pharmacies are paid.

Under the plan, CVS’s roughly 9,500 retail pharmacies will get reimbursed by pharmacy-benefit managers and other payers based on the amount that CVS paid for the drugs, in addition to a limited markup and a flat fee to cover the services involved in handling and dispensing the prescriptions.

Today, pharmacies are generally paid using complex measures that aren’t directly based on what they spent to purchase specific drugs.

A similar payment model, sometimes known as “cost plus,” has been promoted by entrepreneur Mark Cuban’s eponymous pharmacy company, among others [insert Amazon logo here], which have said it brings greater clarity and accountability to drug pricing.

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Back to the Bakken

WTI; $72.38

Thursday, December 7, 2023: 159 for the month; 159 for the quarter, 729 for the year
39308, conf, Hess, SC-JW Hamilton-153-99-1314H-9,

Wednesday, December 6, 2023: 158 for the month; 158 for the quarter, 728 for the year
None.

Tuesday, December 5, 2023: 158 for the month; 158 for the quarter, 728 for the year
39309, conf, Hess, SC-JW Hamilton-153-99-1314H-8,
39148, conf, Enerplus, LK Bice 147-96-6-31-5H,
31769, conf, BR, Ivan 4-1-29MBH,

RBN Energy: Transco Corridor expansions give Appalachian gas producers a way out, part 2. Archived.

When it comes to midstream development in the Northeast, Appalachian natural gas producers have learned by now not to hold their breath. The region is notorious for its staunch environmental opposition to hydrocarbon infrastructure and its propensity for sending gas pipeline projects to the trash pile.

Against all odds, however, midstream development in the region has thawed in recent months, in large part spurred by the unlikely advancement of Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP), the long-embattled project to move up to 2 Bcf/d from the Appalachia gas supply basin to the Transco Corridor, which runs north-south along the Eastern Seaboard.

In today’s RBN blog, we take a look at historical flows on Williams’s Transco Pipeline and what they can tell us about how MVP and Transco’s own planned expansions might reshape gas flows along the corridor. 

In Part 1, we looked at the latest on MVP and the slew of Transco Corridor expansions that were recently announced. For its part, MVP resumed work on the project in August, shortly after a Supreme Court ruling removed its last major legal hurdle. It has faced construction slowdowns since then, but Equitrans Midstream said during its Q3 earnings call in late October that it expected to finish the bulk of the work by the end of the year, followed by commissioning of the greenfield system in January, and full completion in Q1 2024, with commercial service starting April 1. That’s a delay from the end-of-2023 target set this summer, but for the first time ever, the project is now all but guaranteed to come to fruition.