Monday, April 17, 2023

Grayson Mill With Four New Permits; Enerplus Renews Five Permits; Director's Cut Released -- April 17, 2023

Locator: 44409B. 

US gasoline prices: at 5-month highs. Driving season has not yet begun.

Market: finished strong.

  • SCHW: finished the day up almost 4%; up $2.00 / share; trading at $52.77
  • BUD: finished the day up almost 0.6%; up 36 cents / share; trading at $64.92
  • AAPL: in the red all day, actually finished in the green by a penny or two.

Bakken

Director's Cut, February data, released today: link here. Disclaimer applies.

February, 2023:

  • oil: 1,157,303 bopd
  • natural gas: 3,036,428 mcf/day; 95% capture
    • natural gas all-time high, 9/22: 3,175,779
  • DUCs and wells off-line for operational reasons tracked here;

Links here and here


 
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Today

Active rigs in North Dakota: 44.

Four new permits, #39823 - #39826, inclusive:

  • Operator: Grayson Mill
  • Field: Camp (McKenzie County)
  • Comments: 
    • Grayson Mill has permits for four Figaro wells, 
    • to be sited 350 FSL and between 2420 FEL and 2510 FEL;

Five permits renewed:

  • Enerplus: five permits in McGregory Buttes, Dunn County: Aardwolf, Elephant, Gazelle, Lemur, and Zebra.

Themes -- 2024

Locator: 442024C.

Link here.

The 2024 Presidential Race

Tracked here.

The Over-Riding Themes

Global energy: the 21st century is America's century.

Energy transition supercycle: link here.

  • transition to electrification

Information: it's all about AI.

De-globalization: transition accelerates

Energy transition is dead: we may or may not realize it for years;

  • China has never bought into energy transition; India? Not sure.
  • the first to fall: Norway -- though "they" won't admit it 
  • "fell" in 2023: Germany; has industrialized their country.

EVs: have lost their luster

  • update on EVs, February, 2024.
  • 2024 was to have been the break-out year for EVs
  • high interest rates and the long UAW strike will push this transition out at least another three years (2027)
  • it's obvious that EVs are luxury cars, and Americans are subsidizing rich folks to buy luxury cars
  • state governments will realize that lost gasoline tax revenue is a huge problem for highway maintenance, much less new highways

NATO expansion:

  • Finland and Sweden will be part of NATO by 2024; probably 2023 [Sweden officially a member on March 1, 2024]. Finland became a member on April 4, 2023. 
    • Finland has a 830-mile border with Russia, which upon accession more than doubled NATO's pre-existing border with Russia.
  • Ukraine: once war is over
Themes Posted in 2023 for 2024.
With updates.
 
Vision Pro.

AI / AV / AR:

  • OpenAI --> ChatGPT

EVs

  • transition continues  
  • "holy grail" -- a universal supercharger: Ford and GM both partner with Tesla for superchargers (June, 2023)

Fourth Industrial Revolution

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Published Late In 2024

Completely unexpected: the refining stories coming out of California this past week. Reminder: this is not simply about refining oil to produce gasoline, this is about refining oil to produce California's unique CARBOB formulation. CNN: the shrinking number of oil refineries in the state .... California will likely have to source it from out-of-state (Gulf of Mexico refineries?) -- Politico. Oil and gasoline from out-of-state generally shipped in by sea. Some piped in from the north. Watch for an RBN Energy blog on this issue.

Mostly US: overriding themes going into 2025 (and beyond):

  • the changing global geopolitical environment
    • Netanyahu sees an opportunity to significantly change the dynamics in the Mideast
      • amazingly, Iran says it won't retaliate if Israel limits its retaliation to strikes on military targets only; 
        • WTI barely budged late this evening when Israel launched on Iran
        • not even a banner headline on Drudge
        • speaks volumes about the Iranian support for its current leader, and Netanyahu knows it
    • "Putin, quo vadis?"
      • seriously, quo vadis?
      • perhaps the first "adult book" I ever read -- read it in 8th grade, along with Carl Sandburg's Lincoln (one of the volumes); and, Giants in the Earth, Ole Rølvaag 
      • read the latter again a few years ago; had an even greater impact on me
      • as did one of my teachers at that time, a huge impact: Ron Thue.
    • the next president of the United States
      • is this a 1964 redux -- Goldwater vs LBJ?
      • the election of the "uns"? Unhinged, unstable vs unqualified, untested?
  • the incredible energy demands of AI; 
    • the demand is so high, many say we need to return to nuclear energy
  • investing
    • the NASDAQ -- and a small number of companies -- are reshaping investing
      • yes, we're back to the nifty fifty, but this time, the NASDAQ is in the spotlight, not the NYSE
      • to compete, the NYSE feels it needs to expand trading to 22 hours / day
    • Robinhood
    • crypto
    • the public perceptions of the Fed's influence on US economy
  • Covid: had a bigger, lasting effect than folks realize 
    • even the most thick-headed now understand the cause of inflation 
      • even if they fail to admit it
    • genetics, also bigger than folks realize
  • "inflation" will kill the energy transition story, if it already hasn't
  • the economic divide between the US and the EU continues to widen
    • the reason? Energy. The US has check "all the above" when it comes to energy
  • retail success: 
    • US corporations in the tier below the trillion-dollar market caps: will only survive by reputation for customer service
    • this will extend all the way down to mom-and-pop retail stores in all but the smallest communities

Is the US dollar weak or strong right now?


Why was the dollar so strong in 1985?


What was the US inflation rate in 1985?


EVs -- Lucid, Porsche, Renault, GM -- April 17, 2023

Locator: 44408F.  

EVs: link here. Scorecard

Lucid. On which planets do these folks live? Link here.

The Lucid Air starts $180,000, though that is the going rate for a Porsche Taycan Turbo S.
The Model S Plaid [Tesla], essentially the car the Lucid likely benchmarked the Air against, starts at around $130,000 when optioned with full-self driving.
Whether the Lucid is worth around $50K more is an interesting question.
The Lucid Air in Grand Touring trim does much more range (516 miles) than the Model S (348 miles).
That being said, if you're in the market for that high-end super performing sedan, electric sedan, the Lucid here is an unbelievable package. And if you're looking for a cheaper version of this car, there's the Pure edition which will start around $80,000 and comes well equipped and offers 400 miles of range.

Renault: in light of Tesla price cuts, Renault reviewing its prices worldwide. Link here.

GM: ditches Apple CarPlay. WSJ. 99% of those commenting at the article consider this a really, really dumb move on the part of GM. Announced by GM's CFO. GM is desperate to cut costs.

Anticipating A Big, Big Day With Regard To Trends, Meme Stocks -- April l17, 2023

Locator: 44407B.  

Flashback, link here.

  • Peter Lynch oon Louis Rukeyser's Wall Street, June 28, 2002 -- more thhan twenty years ago.

Putin's War: shifting the burden to the population. The Russia File -- from the Wilson Center. Link here.

Lucid: on which planet do these folks live? Link here.

The Lucid Air starts $180,000, though that is the going rate for a Porsche Taycan Turbo S.
The Model S Plaid [Tesla], essentially the car the Lucid likely benchmarked the Air against, starts at around $130,000 when optioned with full-self driving.
Whether the Lucid is worth around $50K more is an interesting question.
The Lucid Air in Grand Touring trim does much more range (516 miles) than the Model S (348 miles).
That being said, if you're in the market for that high-end super performing sedan, electric sedan, the Lucid here is an unbelievable package. And if you're looking for a cheaper version of this car, there's the Pure edition which will start around $80,000 and comes well equipped and offers 400 miles of range.

Renault: in light of Tesla price cuts, Renault reviewing its prices worldwide. Link here.

GM: ditches Apple CarPlay. WSJ. 99% of those commenting at the article consider this a really, really dumb move on the part of GM. Announced by GM's CFO. GM is desperate to cut costs. 

Germany shuts down last nuclear reactor. Everyone following this story (rationally) says this was a most stupid move -- to shut down its entire nuclear energy program. On so many levels.

Copper: Teck, Glencore, BHP, Rio Tinto Group, Anglo, Vale SA, Freeport McMoRan -- link here.

HP and Rio Tinto Group have already shown they’re willing to pay hefty premiums for copper, both doing recent deals for about a 50% premium (Glencore’s Teck offer is 20% by comparison), but these were relatively small, bolt-on acquisitions.

A Teck bid would be an order of magnitude higher, and — unlike the recent deals — would likely attract competition. It has already been reported that Anglo, Vale SA and Freeport McMoRan Inc. would be interested in the company’s metals business following a spinoff.

Teck investors, who get to decide the company’s immediate future at a vote next week, will now have to weigh up whether the lure of its copper mines is enough for the big players to break free from the financial shackles they’ve worn for the past decade and pursue a landmark deal.

 Finland: fourteen years delayed!!

Europe’s largest nuclear reactor has begun regular power output 14 years later than planned, boosting the region’s energy independence. The 1,600-megawatt plant in Finland is the first new atomic reactor in the Nordic countries since the mid-1980s.

Before market opens:

  • SCCO: flat in the pre-market.
  • BUD: up 1.1%.
    • first time ever, a Budweiser commercial on my twitter feed
    • the classical Clydesdale commercial
  • SCHW: up 2.0%
    • earnings: forecast, 90 cents / share
    • beats by 3 cents; link here;

At open, SCHW falls over 2%. Was "up" pre-market and then with announcement about buy-backs, drops. But mid-morning, back up over 3%.

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: 41.

Peter Zeihan newsletter.

WTI: $82.01.

Natural gas: $2.181.

Tuesday, April 18, 2023 -- taxes due: 32 for the month; 32 for the quarter, 287 for the year
39217, conf, SOGC (Sinclair), Grasslands Federal 14-15-5H,

Monday, April 17, 2023: 31 for the month; 31 for the quarter, 286 for the year
38866, conf, Liberty Resources, CA S 158-93-21-23-3MBHX,

Sunday, April 16, 2023: 30 for the month; 30 for the quarter, 285 for the year
38638, conf, Whiting, Braaaflat 11-11-3H,
38372, conf, Oasis, Rey Federal 5201 32-11 3B,

Saturday, April 15, 2023: 28 for the month; 28 for the quarter, 283 for the year
None.

RBN Energy: Energy Transfer steps up its Permian game with Lotus Midstream deal, part 5. Archived.

It’s not just the upstream side of the Permian that’s in the midst of a major consolidation. Over the past couple of years, a slew of significant M&A deals have been made in the midstream space, most recently Energy Transfer’s $1.45 billion plan to acquire Lotus Midstream. Backed by private equity, Lotus has assembled an impressive array of crude-oil gathering, storage and long-haul pipeline assets in West Texas and southeastern New Mexico — including the Centurion pipeline system that links the Permian with the crude oil hub in Cushing, OK. In today's RBN blog, we discuss the deal and what it means for Energy Transfer, whose role in the U.S.’s most prolific crude-oil-focused production area is poised to expand by leaps and bounds.