The First Skarston Well With Huge Jump In Production; Not Re-Fracked -- December 19, 2018

For the Skarston wells, see these two posts:

• April 26, 2016;
• January 28, 2017

There is a ninth Skarston well, the oldest Skarston well:

• 21664, 3,235, Equinor, Skarston 1-12 1H, 33-053-03818, Banks, t9/12; cum 317K 10/18; this well, according to available data, suggests that it has never been re-fracked.

Recent production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	10-2018	31	4009	3792	3380	9335	7559	1011
BAKKEN	9-2018	30	4305	4387	3488	8610	6153	1852
BAKKEN	8-2018	24	4446	4464	3336	7735	6350	727
BAKKEN	7-2018	31	5390	5363	3785	7376	6699	178
BAKKEN	6-2018	30	6500	6409	4405	9066	8458	76
BAKKEN	5-2018	28	4677	4796	3946	4067	3767	36
BAKKEN	4-2018	20	5364	5069	3288	6761	6097	317
BAKKEN	3-2018	0	0	826	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2018	24	10166	9700	6947	34257	30803	2037
BAKKEN	1-2018	19	9515	9597	5785	29831	27398	1064
BAKKEN	12-2017	31	22251	22393	10963	53722	45811	6096
BAKKEN	11-2017	18	9725	9141	4571	17537	15886	1025
BAKKEN	10-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

The Bakken Never Quits -- Another Amazing Story -- December 19, 2018

Updates

Later, 8:59 p.m. CT: see first comment. Don't forget, the Whitman 3-34H was originally drilled short due to pressure issues, and wasn't stimulated to begin with. Fascinating stories. Absolutely fascinating. I am absolutely amazed how good these roughnecks/geologists are -- how they prevented a blowout -- had there been an aggressive driller or an aggressive project manager .... the story could have been much different. And not necessarily a good story.

Original Post 

The CLR Whitman wells in Oakdale were early wells in the Bakken and very, very good wells. They have been posted numerous times. They are tracked here (to some extent). It's interesting to read about #20210 at that link.

The Whitman wells always intrigued me. When they were first drilled, CLR mentioned them often. Of the two wells running south, one was huge, producing 1 million bbls; whereas the other one was lousy (open-hole frack/unfracked). I was always curious when CLR would go back and re-frack the that well (#20212). Well, now they have and the results are amazing (and consistent with what one expected of the Whiman wells).

For newbies: Bakken wells will produce for 35 years. During that time they will have work over rigs; undergo mini-refracks; major refracks; and, impacted by fracking of neighboring wells.

Here's another example (but be sure to read the linked post first to bring yourself up to speed regarding "20210").

The well:

• 20210, 803, CLR, Whitman 2-34H, 33-025-01259, middle Bakken; Oakdale, t9/11; cum 1.6229 million bbls 10/18:

Recent production; FracFocus has no data to suggest this well was re-fracked --

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	10-2018	31	12158	12190	3987	13439	11887	1133
BAKKEN	9-2018	30	13999	14197	6835	15432	14036	1011
BAKKEN	8-2018	4	2075	1375	1231	2073	1580	443
BAKKEN	7-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2018	0	0	221	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2017	2	0	0	19	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2017	3	22	0	21	1	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2017	3	2	38	0	1	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2017	16	3829	3858	232	4800	4703	0
BAKKEN	8-2017	31	9112	9143	428	10829	10590	0

However, it's neighbor well was re-fracked. The well:

• 20212, 482, CLR, Whitman 3-34H, 33-025-01261, Three Forks, Oakdale, t9/11; cum 260K 10/18; again, an incredible well for the cost of a re-frack; completion data: 1,008; t10/17; cum 61 stages; 14.5 million lbs sand;

Recent production, re-fracked:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	10-2018	31	37074	36992	10813	39302	35611	3272
BAKKEN	9-2018	30	36826	36625	14331	38670	34010	4265
BAKKEN	8-2018	4	4731	4441	2378	4621	3785	786
BAKKEN	7-2018	1	67	67	84	4	0	3
BAKKEN	6-2018	1	1	138	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2018	0	0	403	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2018	16	3239	3127	473	2465	2376	0
BAKKEN	3-2018	19	5486	5631	756	4317	4139	50
BAKKEN	2-2018	25	5310	5088	595	4445	4261	0
BAKKEN	1-2018	31	10513	10725	1869	8937	8641	50
BAKKEN	12-2017	31	21903	21790	4841	24087	23839	0
BAKKEN	11-2017	30	19452	19809	5379	19667	18479	968
BAKKEN	10-2017	21	12150	11401	6847	13549	7191	6268

By the way, #20212 is a Three Forks well:

Full production is here: link here.

One Bit Of Good News: The Number Of North Dakota Rigs Back To 68 -- December 19, 2018

Gasoline demand (link here), best news all day:

************************************

Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$48.17	12/19/2018	12/19/2017	12/19/2016	12/19/2015	12/19/2014
Active Rigs	68	54	41	64	182

Five new permits:

• Operators: Whiting (4); Zavanna
• Fields: Sanish (Mountrail); Patent Gate (McKenzie)
• Comments: Whiting has permits for a four-well Domaskin pad in section 20-154-92;

One producing well (DUC) reported as completed:

• 26280, 463, Bruin, Fort Berthold 147-94-1B-12-4H, McGregory Buttes, t11/18; cum --

The Market, Energy, And Political Page, Part 4, T+44 -- December 19, 2018

Europe: Over at the sidebar, a link to "the big stories." From there, "Europe at a tipping point." Were the "yellow vests" the beginning of the end?

New England: Massachusetts lifts moratorium on National Grid gas hookups: The move could boost projects that have been stalled for months, but regulators are imposing some restrictions on the utility. Don't expect the floodgates to open anytime soon.

Facebook: What’s Facebook worth to you? About a thousand bucks, according to a new study from scholars at Tufts University and three other schools that asked people how much it would cost to get them to quit the social media network.

It's Official -- A Silurian Well Drilled In 1981 Produced One Million Bbls Of Oil -- 37 Years Of Production

But as soon as it hit one million bbls it was abandoned.

Hit the one-million-bbl milestone:

• 7571, AB/482, Hess, Reitsch NCT-2 4, Blue Buttes, a Silurian well, t4/81; cum 1.0062 million bbls 7/17; 

Most recent production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
SILURIAN	10-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SILURIAN	9-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SILURIAN	8-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SILURIAN	7-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SILURIAN	6-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SILURIAN	5-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SILURIAN	4-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SILURIAN	3-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SILURIAN	2-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SILURIAN	1-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SILURIAN	12-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SILURIAN	11-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SILURIAN	10-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SILURIAN	9-2017	0	0	223	0	0	0	0
SILURIAN	8-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SILURIAN	7-2017	13	287	177	399	552	552	0
SILURIAN	6-2017	30	599	771	3673	1102	1102	0

The scout ticket:

Case Study -- Bakken Well -- Bruin -- Fort Berthold -- McGregory Buttes -- #20879

This page won't be updated. See this note for background. This is what makes unconventional drilling / shale oil / tight oil so exciting.

As I've mentioned many times before, over the course of a Bakken well's lifetime -- 35 years -- the well will see work-over rigs; will undergo mini-re-fracks; and, major re-fracks. Existing wells will be impacted by neighboring wells. The wells will not follow a simple/conventional "depletion" rate curve.

Here's another example.
I followed this well for quite awhile some time and then removed it from the list of wells that needed to be followed.

The well:

• 20879, 2,709, Bruin/HRC, Fort Berthold 147-94-1A-12-2H, McGregory Buttes, t1/14; cum 486K 10/18; back off-line 9/18;

I quit following this well back in 2014 after the successful frack. Since then, it has been an outstanding well, with the typical Bakken decline.

Now I see that this well is back off line. Full production profile here.

There is a lot of activity in this area, as one can see in the graphic below.

Other wells of interest in the graphic:

• 32503, off line as of 10/18; t12/16; cum 295K 9/18;
• 32505, production jump form 3,000 bbls/month (9/18) to 7,000 bbls/month (10/18) but it looks like it might have been off-line much of 8/18 and 9/18; and now back on line for the full month; t12/16; cum 249K 10/18;
• 30680, 823, Bruin, Fort Berthold 147-94-1A-12-9H, McGregory Buttes, t8/15; cum 348K 8/18;

The Slawson Rebel, Bandit, Snakeeyes Wells In Big Bend / Van Hook

From an earlier post:

• October 13, 2018: #33701; coming back on line after neighboring well fracked; see this post;

The graphic:

The wells:

• 19665, 1,126, Slawson, Bandit 2-29H, Van Hook, t2/11; cum 367K 9/20; production profile unremarkable; cum 387K 8/21;
  
• 25317, 329, Slawson, Bandit 3-29H, Van Hook, t7/13; cum 192K 9/20; production profile unremarkable; a fairly mediocre well from the very beginning; cum 219K 8/21;
• 17459, 403, Slawson, Bandit 1-29H, Van Hook, t5/09; cum 204K 9/20; there was a noticeable jump in production in 10/17, going from 900 bbls/month to 4,000 bbls/month; otherwise fairly unremarkable; cum 211K 8/21;

• 29616, 1,272, Slawson, Rebel Federal 1-32-8H, Big Bend, t9/18; cum 277K 9/20; cum 399K 8/21;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	10-2018	31	34513	34546	19762	22758	6556	12313
BAKKEN	9-2018	29	21658	21035	13332	14387	987	10912

• 29617, 2,381, Slawson, Rebel Federal 7-32-8TFH, Big Bend, t8/18; cum 402K 9/20; cum 482K 8/21;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	10-2018	27	24809	25218	34248	15858	1438	11608
BAKKEN	9-2018	28	54342	53728	62611	35177	110	28992
BAKKEN	8-2018	17	25843	25394	31295	16797	0	13817

• 29621, 2,548, Slawson, Lunker Federal 1SLH, Big Bend, t10/17; cum 363K 9/20; cum 386K 8/21;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	10-2018	31	25527	25269	19762	17078	2479	11691
BAKKEN	9-2018	9	4194	3418	2777	2802	0	2308
BAKKEN	8-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2018	1	0	248	0	5	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2018	20	14691	15050	6128	9885	5349	2872
BAKKEN	3-2018	29	24039	24189	9961	16262	10042	3489
BAKKEN	2-2018	26	26957	27241	10715	18796	13920	1847
BAKKEN	1-2018	25	23959	23700	10672	16468	5902	7870
BAKKEN	12-2017	12	6776	7191	2396	4459	7	3674
BAKKEN	11-2017	10	3532	3702	2383	2321	0	1893
BAKKEN	10-2017	18	7892	6453	3860	5248	0	4402

• 33701, 754, Slawson, Snakeeyes 4-29-20H, Big Bend, t10/17; cum 388K 3/20; remains off line 9/20; back on line 10/20; cum 477K 8/21;
  

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	10-2018	31	19896	19923	16940	9591	1537	5759
BAKKEN	9-2018	30	24001	23757	16042	12942	9958	242
BAKKEN	8-2018	4	2800	2328	1572	1423	1014	89
BAKKEN	7-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2018	1	3	252	0	5	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2018	22	16606	16804	6128	8203	4344	1970
BAKKEN	3-2018	30	22301	22535	9961	10757	5534	2684
BAKKEN	2-2018	26	20917	21009	10715	10297	7149	770
BAKKEN	1-2018	31	29052	28827	14120	13972	3473	7234
BAKKEN	12-2017	31	39811	40188	15623	19006	1273	13359
BAKKEN	11-2017	6	3428	2947	1475	1638	0	1237
BAKKEN	10-2017	8	2430	1922	0	1252	0	88433

Weekly Petroleum Report -- EIA -- Flat; Unremarkable Report; WTI After Report Released -- Up $1.00 To $47.61

Updates

Later, 8:52 p.m. Central Time: see first comment -- from a most knowledgeable reader on this subject -- I had "blown" this off -- not given it much thought (for various reasons) but the reader puts it in perspective and notes it is more important than I realized. From the reader:

The 4.237 million barrel drop in distillates inventories is worth mentioning, especially in light of low coal & gas supplies The drop in distillates was primarily driven by a 417,000 barrels per day increase to 4,886,000 barrels per day in product supplied, the 2nd highest on record, topped only by January 31 2003, which I would read as heat oil demand. 

That now puts our distillate (heat oil) supplies 11% below the 5 year average going into the gut of winter, & might strain another fuel switching option, should the weather get cold enough to need it.

In other words, as long as we have a warm winter, we might be okay --- but if we have a cold snap, it could get very interesting, very fast. 

Original Post

Link here.

• US crude oil inventories: decreased by 0.5 million bbls
• US crude oil inventory: 441.5 million bbls; 7% above five-year average for this time of the year
• refiners working at 95.4% capacity; a bit on the slightly low side
• gasoline / distillate fuel production: no significant change
• for the first time in a long time, jet fuel supplied decreased; was down 5.8% compared with same four-week period last year

Time to re-balance:

Week	Date	Change w-o-w	In Storage	Weeks to RB to 350 Million Bbls
Week 0	November 21, 2018	4.9	446.90	N/A
Week 1	November 28, 2018	3.6	450.50	N/A
Week 2	December 6, 2018	-7.3	443.20	N/A
Week 3	December 12, 2018	-1.2	442.00	Never
Week 4	December 19, 2018	-0.5	441.50	Never at this rate

Around The Bakken -- December 19, 2018

Marathon's Connolly 31-14H, #16187, in Bailey field, back on status after being off line since 5/17;

A million-bbl EOG Austin well, 21-28H, #17227, short lateral went off line 7/18; no neighboring activity noted; nothing in the sundry forms;

Slawson Whitmore wells in Parshall oil field recently fracked, #34921 and #34922. Not sure which way they are running, but based on name and fact that another Whitmore well is off line, it suggests the wells are running north; sited in an unusual location if that's accurate; #17303, a Whitmore well to the north, off-line; two EOG Austin wells (#25839, #25840) in the same area are also off line. Also note this incredible Slawson Whitmore well, drilled in 2008, that went off line 7/18:

• 17354, 2,205, Slawson, Whitmore 1-7H, Parshall, short lateral, t10/108; cum 656K 10/18;

Remains off line; see this post.

• 17318, 483, MRO, Clive Pelton 34-23H, Bailey, t8/08; cum 178K 5/18; taken off-line mid-4/18;

After nice jump in production due to neighboring re-frack, this well is back off line:

• 17345, 902, Newfield, Wisness 1-4H, Westberg, t3/09; cum 428K 10/18; taken off line for less than a month, off and on prior to the jump in production/

Back on line; nice jump in production:

• 17319, 329, BR, CCU Audubon 41-27H, Corral Creek, t12/08; cum 282K 10/18; FracFocus, no re-frack; recent frack:
• 29068, 73, BR, CCU Boxcar 34-22TFH, Corral Creek, t3/18; cum 112K 9/18; [#17319]

17319:

BAKKEN	9-2018	30	6252	6758	2683	2946	2872	0
BAKKEN	8-2018	29	5148	4598	3746	2918	2846	0
BAKKEN	7-2018	22	3379	3360	3031	1553	1498	0
BAKKEN	6-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2018	1	48	0	0	2	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2018	4	25	0	23	20	10	0
BAKKEN	12-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2017	4	190	465	30	117	107	0
BAKKEN	10-2017	31	1437	1375	260	1098	1021	0
BAKKEN	9-2017	30	1320	1132	244	1142	1068	0