Notes From All Over -- The Early Evening Portland Edition -- May 24, 2021

This is not a contrarian opinion. I'm seeing variations of this across social media:

It was also noted that Europeans are still not flying; driving instead. Distances much shorter in Europe than in US. France wants to shut down flights of short duration.  

If crude oil surges and gasoline trends toward $5/gallon in California it will have nothing to do with President Biden killing Keystone XL but there will be no shortage of folks like me trying to make the connection. LOL. 

I agree with Peter Sutherland's assessment above. I probably did not have to point that out. 

****************************
Cabot - Cimarex

The merger was probably a one-off but it does suggest that US drillers are getting increasingly acquisitive.

In the Bakken, my hunch is Whiting is still in play after all these years. Market cap of $1.7 billion. 

EOG, market cap: $46.77 billion. 

Enerplus, market cap: $1. 58 billion. 

**************************
LNG Export Terminals

Sabine Pass train 6 and Calcasieu ahead of schedule.

*****************************
Word of the Day: Scud

It's interesting how folks just accept some words without questioning the etymology. I'm very, very guilty of that. 

For me, "scud" is one of those words. Most Americans probably first heard the word during "the Gulf War." I'm sure that was true for me, also. I heard the term often but I never thought about the origin of the word.

While on the flight yesterday from DFW to Portland, Oregon, while reading Sailing Around The World, Joshua Slocum, the illustrated edition, c. 2016, with the original printing in 1890, I came across the word. 

From page 17:

I had read somewhere of a fishing-schooner hooking her anchor into a whale, and being towed a long way and at great speed. This was exactly what happened to the Spray -- in my dream! 

I could not shake it off entirely when I woke and found that it was a the wind blowing and the heavy sea now running that had disturbed my short rest. 

A scud was flying across the moon. A storm was brewing; indeed, it was already stormy.  I reefed the sails, then hauled in my sea-anchor, and setting what canvas the sloop could carry, headed her away for Monhegan light, which she made before daylight on morning of the 8th. 

It turns out, we've all seen scuds, often. I certainly have. From "finedictionary, "Scud - definitions, definition #4:

• scud: loose, vapory clouds driven swiftly by the wind;
• "Borne on the scud of the sea."
• "The scud was flying fast above us, throwing a veil over the moon.

When used by a sailor, it probably foreshadows a squall. From nauticed.org, "a name given by sailors to the lowest clouds, which are mostly observed in squally weather." Sort of when a dog hears "yada, yada, yada, walk, yada, yada, yada" when a sailor hears the captain saying "yada, yada, yada, scud, yada, yada, yada" his heart skips a beat.

*****************
Too Cool For School

Last week of school. 

Amazon Deal For MGM Could Come Be Announced In Less Than 24 Hours -- Apple Continues To Think Different -- May 24, 2021

See this post from May 2, 2021.

My concluding paragraph:

That's the problem with Apple TV. It has no content. I subscribe to Apple TV (still for free. Well, almost free: one cent per month). Apple needs to do something and needs to do something this year if it wants to "save" Apple TV. Every month it waits, the gap between Apple and Amazon, and the gap between Apple and Netflix widens. At some point the moat may be too big for Apple to bridge. Especially if Amazon acquires the MGM catalogue. 

So, today we learn: Amazon deal to acquire MGM to come as soon as tomorrow, Tuesday, May 25, 2021.

One wonders if Apple even considered going after MGM. If not, it confirms that Apple continues to "think different.

It certainly seems Apple has no desire to be seen as simply airing reruns along with other streaming networks. Having said that, I watch Hulu "all the time," and haven't watched a thing on Apple TV+.

**************************
Glut Of Cash Complicates Things;
Short Term Interest Rates Have Plummeted To Historic Lows

Glut of cash. Link here. Six-month treasury at .... drum roll ... 0.02% -- that's not 2%. That's not even 0.2%. It's 0.02%. A year ago, it was almost 0.2%. Life insurance companies must be having a heck of a time.

 **************************
Electric Truck Startup Lordstown Starting To Look Down

Lordstown Motors will sharply cut back its production outlook for its electric truck and still, it needs to raise more capital. 

Just-in-time inventory generally means that companies have two weeks worth of inventory parts on hand. Lordstown Motors says it has all the semiconductor chips it needs to meed met production goals for the year. 

Link here.  

The company posted a loss of 72 cents a share, incredibly worse than the consensus 25-cent-loss, and almost five times worse than the 16-cent-loss one year ago. 

RIDE's year-end liquidity went from an expected $200 million two months ago to just $50 million announced today. Lordstown is burning through cash at a stunning rate. Forecast revenue for 2021E down to basically $0 and CAPEX + OPCOSTS surging. 

Didn't they say that about Tesla years ago?

But backed by GM, the company has very, very deep pockets. Not to worry.

**************************
PG&E To Move Out Of San Francisco

Will move across the bay to Oakland. 

**************************
"202One?"
CDC, US SecState: "Here, Hold My Flag"

CDC and State Department: highest-level warning -- Americans should not visit Japan. At this level everything is political. 

Did either clear this with President Biden? Was Japan called before this announced?

Japanese Olympics in July. This is almost June. 

More and more Japanese businesses say "NO" to "202One."

One New Permit; WTI Closes Above $66; Readers Telling Me They Are Getting Increased Number Of Offers For Their Minerals -- May 24, 2021

California: moving to ban fracking in the state by 2024. We've discussed this before. Machts nichts. Virtual signaling at its best. 

********************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$66.05	5/24/2021	05/24/2020	05/24/2019	05/24/2018	05/24/2017
Active Rigs	17	14	65	65	49

One new permit, #38323:

• Operator: Petro-Hunt
• Field: Alexandria (Divide);
• Comments:
• Petro-Hunt has a permit to site a Tomlinson well in lot 1 section 2-161-100
• the well will be sited 285 FNL 955 FEL

One producing well (a DUC) reported as completed:

• 35084, drl/A, CLR, Carson Peak 10-35H1, Oakdale, no production data, the Carson Peak wells are tracked here, This is very interesting. I do make typographical errors on the blog but I'm usually pretty careful about the "status" of wells. When I went to the "Carson Peak wells" link I see that #35084 was PNC, and yet now, CLR/NDIC shows it as drl/A.
• let's check FracFocus: 33-025-03520; no frack data; so, CLR reports it as  drl/A but yet no frack data;
• what does the well file say: a sundry form suggests it was the typical "permit expired; needs to be renewed" -- if accurate, state PNC'd it and CLR re-instated it.
• neighboring wells on the pad:
• 35109, IA/956, Morris 7-26H2, big well, but off line for past 2.5 months.
  
• 35081, IA/3,556, Carson Peak 8-35H2, a huge well, but off line 2.0 months;
  
• 35082, IA/1,593, Morris 8-26H2, a nice well, but off line for past 6.5 months.
• 38083, drl/NC, Carson Peak 9135H, on line 2 days, 3/21; no oil runs/production;
  
• 35085, drl/NC, Morris 9-26H, no production data,
  
• 35086, drl/NC, 10-26H2, no production data,

Pipeline Expansions? Say What? Enbridge Pipeline 3 Is Long Pole In The Tent -- May 24, 2021

 I thought pipelines were being shut down. Then this from ArgusMedia today: 

Heavy Canadian crude shipments to the US are set to rise as more pipeline expansions come on stream and oil sands output climbs above pre-Covid levels.

Pipeline capacity to ship heavy crude from Canada to the US is scheduled to rise by at least 420,000 b/d this year. The expansions are expected to increase Canadian heavy crude's market share in the US Gulf coast refining hub and could lead to higher heavy sour crude exports.

Canadian crude accounted for close to 56pc of all US imports in March.

Line 3:

The largest boost to export capacity will come from Enbridge's Line 3 replacement project, which will increase capacity from western Canada to the US midcontinent by 370,000 b/d. 

Enbridge has completed about 60pc of the work in Minnesota and the line is on track to start up in the fourth quarter. 

The project will expand Line 3 capacity from Alberta to Wisconsin to 760,000 b/d from 390,000 b/d and will enable Enbridge to capitalise on growing heavy crude demand amid a declining global heavy supply outlook. 

The nearly 700km Minnesota segment is the last section needed to complete the project, but regulatory and legal issues have delayed progress. Opponents are suing to stop the expansion and the Minnesota Court of Appeals heard arguments in March on a challenge to the state's approval. 

Producers expect the expansion to provide substantial relief to pipeline congestion. 

Enbridge needed to reject 52pc of requests for space on its two largest heavy crude lines for June, representing just over half of its near 3mn b/d Mainline system. 

Enbridge has had to reject on average 47pc of all nominations for capacity on the lines in the first six months of this year. The rejections should drop to 10pc once Line 3 comes into service.

Enbridge Express, Hardisty, Alberta, to Casper, WY:

• boosting capacity on its 280,000 b/d
• plans to complete the second phase of the 50,000 b/d expansion in the second quarter.
• the line connects to the Platte system, which moves crude from Casper to Wood River, Illinois.
  

Enbridge's Mainline system:

• increased by 100,000 b/d in 2019 and may see further increases;
• option to increase Mainline capacity by another 200,000 b/d
  

Enbridge's Southern Lights:

• Enbridge weighing a plan to reverse its 180,000 b/d Southern Lights pipeline from Illinois to Alberta to add more southbound capacity. 

Keystone:

• TC Energy was planning a 50,000 b/d expansion of its Keystone pipeline system from Hardisty to Patoka, but says it does "not have a timeline to share" on any increase in capacity. 

Much more at the link.

NP Resources With Plans To Drill In Bicentennial -- May 24, 2021

From the June, 2021, NDIC hearing dockets, two NP Resources cases of interest. Here's one of the two cases (the other case is tracked here):

Case 28845 (not a permit), NP Resources, Bicentennial-Bakken, establish a 320-acre unit; one vertical well; S/2 section 28-144-103, Golden Valley;

In section 28-144-103, there have been several oil and gas wells along with a SWD well. The O&G wells:

• 8590, PA/160, Red River, SM Energy, Moore-Federal 1-28, Bicentennial, t11/81; cum 317K 3/01; twenty years of production;
• 14976, AB/662, Birdbear, NP Resources, 20002 JV-P Agate 1, Bicentennial, vertical, t7/2000; cum 833K 8/17;
• 15029, PA/1,120, Birdbear, Energy Equity Company, Moore-Federal 2-28, Bicentennial, vertical, t12/2000; cum 241K 12/08;
• 15091, A/154, Red River, NP Resources,  20002 JV-P Agate 2, Bicentennial, vertical, t7/2001; cum 197K 3/21; still active at 20 years of production;

NP Resources Active In Beaver Creek-Bakken -- May 24, 2021

From the June, 2021, NDIC hearing dockets, two NP Resources cases of interest. Here's one of the two cases:

Case 28846: NP Resources, Beaver Creek-Bakken, establish a 320-acre unit; one vertical well; N/2 section 6-142-102, Billings County;

This is quite interesting. NP Resources already has three sites in the adjacent section, 1-142-103, on the confidential list, not yet producing, but recent:

• 30792, conf, NP Resources, 9210 Barkland 112-3H, Beaver Creek, look at that "112" number;
• 30793, conf, NP Resources, 9210 Barkland 112-1H, Beaver Creek, look at that "112" number;
• 30794, conf, NP Resources, 9210 Barkland 112-2H, Beaver Creek, look at that "112" number;

I assume the "112" number: sited in section 1; bottom hole terminates in section 12 to the south.

There's also an old dual lateral, #15762, that is plugged and abandoned.

And finally, the vertical well:

• 15428, Red River / Birdbear, 52/102, NP Resources, 9210 JV-P Barkland 1, Beaver Creek, t9/17/03 and 4/11/04; cum 79K (Red River) and cum 38K (Birdbear); the Duperow was also targeted in 2004, and was dry. Spacing: E/2 of NESE 1-142-103. 

Meanwhile, in the section in question, section 6-142-102, something similar:

• two old vertical wells, #14953, and #11698; and,
• three wells on confidential list, not yet producing;

The vertical wells:

• 11698, Red River, 502, NP Resources, 9210 JV-P Federal DM1, Beaver Creek, t1/86, cum 546K 3/21 (very little production currently); but 35 years old and holding the lease by production. Half-section (320-acre) spacing.
• 14953, Red River, AB/725, NP Resources, Federal DM1 9210 JV-P 2, Beaver Creek, t3/2000, cum 525K 7/18; off line 8/18 and currently AB. But still: 525K over 21 years. Half-section (320-acre) spacing.

The newer permits:

• 30661, conf, NP Resources, 9210 Beaver Creek 631-3H, Beaver Creek, look at that "631" number;
• 30662, conf, NP Resources, 9210 Beaver Creek 631-1H, Beaver Creek, look at that "631" number;
• 30663, conf, NP Resources, 9210 Beaver Creek 631-2H, Beaver Creek, look at that "631" number;

I assume the "631" number: sited in section 6; bottom hole terminates in section 31 to the north. 

Can We Really Afford To Do This Now? When We Were So Close To "Saving The Earth"? -- May 24, 2021

Every day I read stories that renewable energy is now less expensive than (or at least competitive with) fossil fuels. If so, what a great win-win for everyone!! 

Americans can switch from fossil fuel to renewable energy to save the earth and save money!

Wow, "saving the earth" and "saving money."

But now this from the Biden administration, link here: https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2021/05/24/biden-climate-adviser-gina-mccarthy-its-ridiculous-to-ask-americans-to-sacrifice-for-the-climate-right-now/:

Something tells me something isn't playing out as planned.

I do know that for the first time in years solar panels are increasing in price. From China. I wonder what that's all about? But I digress. 

If non-binary Gina is really saying this -- that it's "ridiculous to ask Americans to sacrifice for the climate right now" -- it suggests that gasoline prices are rising a bit too fast. Here in north Texas gasoline is one dollar / gallon more than it was a year ago under orange-man, and apparently in California gasoline is trending toward $5 / gallon and the American driving season has not yet started. Oh-oh. 

It also suggests electricity prices are starting to rise. I'm certainly getting mixed messages. I thought all this renewable energy was going to lower our utility bills. 

What really scares me, if "we" only have eight more years left (see Greta, AOC, et al), how can we possibly "quit sacrificing" now? More than ever we need to be switching to renewable energy, especially now with fossil fuel prices rising so quickly.

Another digression: generally wind farm developers market their projects by promising to maintain prices for twenty years. Something suggests that if the inflation we are now seeing is, in fact, not transitory, these developers are setting themselves up for a big "fail." Of course, they will get bailed out.

From the linked article:

White House National Climate Adviser Gina McCarthy said it would be “ridiculous” to ask Americans to “sacrifice” for the climate right now, given the uphill battle many face due to the ramifications of the Chinese coronavirus pandemic, which battered the economy, leaving many jobless. [Not to worry: once "we" quit sending out all those supplemental unemployment checks a lot of folks will return to work ... or so they say.]

Speaking on Axios on HBO, McCarthy, who led the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) under former President Barack Obama, admitted it is not a good idea, at least right now, to ask Americans to make sacrifices for the climate.

I wonder if non-binary Gina prefers to move oil by truck, rail, or pipeline in the US? Asking for a friend. 

"Damn The Torpedoes, Full Speed Ahead" -- CLR's Bice / Dolezal -- May 24, 2021

The NDIC hearing dockets for June, 2021, were posted last week. 

Today, the NDIC announced three new cases (see link above).

Among the three additional cases, this:

• 28847, CLR, sixteen wells on an existing 2560-acre unit; sections 29/32-146-95 and sections 5/8-145-95, Dunn County;

Note: if these wells are important to you, I recommend you go to the source for information / documentation. The notes below are for my benefit trying to understand the Bakken better. This is about as far as my headlights go so there may be content errors. As usual, there will always be typographical errors. 

 ***************************
The Wells

I only checked a few, but I believe CLR already has eight wells producing in this 2560-acre unit. If so, then case 28847 is for an additional eight wells. None of the existing wells are particularly good wells. It will be interesting if newer completions strategies change things.

• 31509, running north, 306, CLR, Bice 6-32H1, Chimney Butte, t8/16; cum 112K 3/21; not a particularly good well; 30 stages; 9.5 million lbs sand; Three Forks, it looks like the vertical depth of the Three Forks first bench lateral was 10,970 feet. If these numbers are accurate, then the vertical separations was 80 feet and the horizontal separation at some points narrowed to zero feet -- in other words, the two pipes (#31509 and #17884) were "right on top of each other, but vertically separated by 80 feet;
  
• 31510, running north, 760, CLR, Bice 5-32H, Chimney Butte, t8/16; cum 221K 3/21; 
• 31511, running south, 439, CLR, Dolezal 5-5H, Chimney Butte, t1/18; cum 185K 3/21; 
• 31512, running south, 307, CLR, Dolezal 6-5H1, Chimney Butte, t1/18; cum 185K 3/21;

• 24835, running north, 1,473, CLR, Bice 3-32H, Chimney Butte, t12/13; cum 295K 3/21; 
• 24836, running north, 416, CLR, Bice 4-32H1, Chimney Butte, t12/13; cum 211K 3/21; 
• 24839, running south, 758, CLR, Dolezal 3-5H, Chimney Butte, t2/14; cum 290K 3/21; huge jump in production, 7/18; see #31511 and #31512 above; 
• 24841, running south, 954, CLR, Dolezal 3-5H1, Chimney Butte, t2/14; cum 284K 3/21; no real jump in production when neighboring wells fracked;
  

Two parent wells sited in section 5:

• 19728, running south, 549, CLR, Dolezal 2-5H, Chimney Butte, t5/11; cum 299K 3/21;
• 17372, running south, 426, CLR, Dolezal 1-5H, Chimney Butte, t9/09; cum 203K 3/21; was off line as of 2/20; returned to production  3/21; a small jump in production in early 2014, but did not last long;

Two parent wells sited in section 29:

• 17884, running south, 147, CLR, Bice 2-29H, Chimney Butte, t1/10; cum 442K 3/21; a small jump in production in early 2014, but did not last long;
• 16943, running south, 516, CLR, Bice 1-29H, Chimney Butte, t5/08; cum 201K 3/21;
  

Note: it looks like the daughter wells are going to be better than the parent wells. Or at least, just as good. Just saying. Again, it will be interesting what the granddaughter wells will look like with new completion strategies.

**********************************
Anti-Collision

17884, middle Bakken, 10,890' TVD. See #31509 above.

Note production for #17884 (reminder, the Three Forks first bench, #31509) with definite, but not huge, jump in production on/after/on/about 8/16), i.e., a halo effect between two differing formations. We talked about this a long, long time ago. If I recall correctly (and I probably don't), CLR used the Bice wells to show that the middle Bakken and the Three Forks first bench do not communicate.

BAKKEN	4-2017	30	4263	4484	4403	4189	3949	0
BAKKEN	3-2017	31	5417	5140	2566	7249	7001	0
BAKKEN	2-2017	28	6694	6756	3424	7111	6887	0
BAKKEN	1-2017	31	7544	7583	5298	5232	4984	0
BAKKEN	12-2016	30	3878	3806	5291	2641	2281	137
BAKKEN	11-2016	29	3573	3995	3751	2720	2507	0
BAKKEN	10-2016	31	4128	3526	6559	2939	2416	312
BAKKEN	9-2016	12	399	663	1018	323	233	63
BAKKEN	8-2016	31	5468	5507	12359	4062	3282	536
BAKKEN	7-2016	19	3132	2826	9249	2059	520	1413
BAKKEN	6-2016	10	441	863	250	540	474	9
BAKKEN	5-2016	31	2012	1757	1038	2267	2019	0
BAKKEN	4-2016	30	2070	2230	982	2298	2060	0
BAKKEN	3-2016	31	2304	2227	1051	2586	2338	0
BAKKEN	2-2016	29	2102	2006	960	2016	1784	0
BAKKEN	1-2016	31	2282	2656	1019	1999	1751	0
BAKKEN	12-2015	31	2282	1991	1093	1761	1518	0
BAKKEN	11-2015	30	2404	2419	1399	1914	1308	367
BAKKEN	10-2015	12	762	651	374	679	469	130
BAKKEN	9-2015	30	2227	2208	899	2062	1214	609
BAKKEN	8-2015	31	2353	2423	1000	2302	1646	408
BAKKEN	7-2015	30	2140	2172	942	1988	1338	419
BAKKEN	6-2015	30	2275	2241	959	2226	1586	402
BAKKEN	5-2015	31	2517	2553	1095	2305	1849	208

The graphics:

Waiting For DAPL Decision? "Damn The Torpedoes, Full Speed Ahead!" -- May 24, 2021

The NDIC hearing dockets for June, 2021, were posted last week.

The NDIC released three additional cases for June, 2021. Again, these are cases, not permits:

• 28845, NP Resources, Bicentennial-Bakken, establish a 320-acre unit; one vertical well; S/2 section 28-144-103, Golden Valley;
• 28846, NP Resources, Beaver Creek-Bakken, establish a 320-acre unit; one vertical well; N/2 section 6-142-102, Billings County;
• 28847, CLR, sixteen wells on an existing 2560-acre unit; sections 29/32-146-95 and sections 5/8-145-95, Dunn County; see this note.
  

Capline Pipeline Reversal -- DAPL Implications? Two New DUCs, No Production Data -- May 24, 2021

Cabot, Cimarex, link here:

• Marcellus shale: 173,000 net acres (Cabot)
• Permian and Anadarko: 560,000 net acres (Cimarex)
• all stock deal; valued at $17 billion
• $17 billion / 733,000 acres = $23K/acre
  
• someone must have done some fast talking
• purpose of deal: prevent Cimarex from being taken over by a "major" and CEO with no job
• something more? the answer was worthy of the Delphi oracle but the fact that someone actually asked about the Bakken in this context is incredibly interesting.
  

******************************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$64.67	5/24/2021	05/24/2020	05/24/2019	05/24/2018	05/24/2017
Active Rigs	19	14	65	65	49

Two wells coming off the confidential list --

Monday, May 24, 2021: 37 for the month, 58 for the quarter, 139 for the year:

• None.

Sunday, May 23, 2021: 37 for the month, 58 for the quarter, 139 for the year:

• 37780, drl/NC, CLR, Brandvik 12-25H, Corral Creek, no production data, the Brandvik/Weydahl wells are tracked here; the unitized Corral Creek oil field;
  

Saturday, May 22, 2021: 36 for the month, 57 for the quarter, 138 for the year:

• 37779, drl/NC, CLR, State Weydahl 12-36H, Corral Creek, no production data,

RBN Energy: crude oil industry prepares as Capline Pipeline closes in on "flip-day." Archived.

Over the next few months, a variety of market players — crude oil producers, midstreamers, refiners, and exporters — will be making preparations for one of the most anticipated infrastructure additions in recent years. Actually, it’s not technically new; it’s the long-planned reversal of the 632-mile, 40-inch-diameter Capline, which for a half-century transported crude north from St. James, LA, to Patoka, IL. 

Line-filling will begin this fall and Capline will start flowing south from Patoka in January 2022, providing Western Canadian and other producers with new pipeline access to Gulf Coast markets. Upstream of Patoka, the impending reversal has been spurring the development of new pipeline capacity to supply the soon-to-be-southbound Capline, and in Louisiana, refiners and exporters have been making plans for the crude that will be flowing their way into St. James. Today, we discuss the broad impacts of the “new” Patoka-to-St.-James pipeline.

See this RBN Energy post from August 18, 2019.

Akso at February 7, 2019.