Thank You, Mr Trump -- November 13, 2018

This is really quite remarkable how fast this happened.

Well played, Mr Trump.

Energy: Has Any Politician Ever Been More Wrong Than Barack Obama Was About U.S. Oil Production And Energy Independence? A Resounding "NO!" -- IEA, IBD, And Anyone Else Paying Attention -- November 13, 2018

I haven't read this article yet -- too busy with family commitments, but it looks like a great article. If it says what I think it's going to say, I will certainly come back and post comments.

For now, enjoy. The link was sent to me be a reader. Much appreciated.

Link here to Investor's Business Daily.

Energy: Has any politician ever been more wrong than Barack Obama was about U.S. oil production and energy independence? Based on the latest report from the International Energy Agency, the answer is unequivocally no.

The Market, Energy, And Political Page, T+8 -- November 13, 2018

Mideast: some time ago I said that "Khashoggi" changed everything in the Mideast. For one thing, President Trump now has almost "unlimited" leverage over the Crown Prince (MbS) of Saudi Arabia.

Interestingly enough, Scott Adams had a special Mideast podcast this afternoon. From where did he start his "Mideast analysis"? Yup, with Khashoggi.

Unfortunately Scott Adams comes to a ridiculous conclusion -- Scott Adams may understand "persuasion," but he does not understand the Mideast. None of us do, but at least we know that we don't understand it.

Daycare: good intentions gone awry. From The Bismarck Tribune, new daycare providers cannot begin work until 'fingerprint screen is complete." At least that's what critics say: a bad law. In fact, law enforcement canget answers back in less than 24 hours. Sounds like something is wrong when it takes a month for a day care employer to get fingerprint results back. Sounds like a job for Amazon cloud!

NYC and DC: speaking of Amazon, apparently it's being reported that Amazon will build its two new headquarters in NYC and in "northern Virginia" -- a euphemism for Washington, DC -- down the street from The Washington Post, no doubt.

Apple: a year or so ago, all indications were that Apple, Inc. was going to start increasing dividends for its shareholders. That did not happen. Share buybacks, yes, but not increasing dividends. What's up? This is about the same time that Apple, Inc, made the decision to quit providing information on number of units sold. Connecting the dots. Which famous investor does not like paying dividends? Which famous investor talks a lot but doesn't give much information out about specifics? Which famous investor recently invested heavily in Apple, Inc? Ah, yes, Not rocket science.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel or relationship decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here.

MRO Reporting Staggering Wells In Reunion Bay -- Absolutely Staggering -- November 13, 2018

MRO reports a well today with an IP of 9,061 bbls of crude oil. Based on other wells in the area (see specifically #32975 and #32970 below) one can expect >100,000 bbls over the first full 30 days. For newbies, some Bakken wells drilled back in 2007 still haven't produced 100,000 bbls.

Subject to change, some weeks ago I suggested that the "large Bakken operator of the year, 2018" will be MRO but with these wells and it being, now, November, it's going to be difficult to see another large operator beat out MRO for this honor.

Records: at FAQs, see question #9 for record IPs.

Today, in the Bakken there was one producing well (a DUC) reported as completed:

• 32973, 9,061, Joshua USA 13-23TFH-2B, Reunion Bay, t9/18; cum 58K over 15 days; extrapolates to 117K over 30 days; sundry forms not yet scanned in; 11.6 million gallons of water; 89% by weight; t9/18; cum 382K 11/19;

Other wells in the immediate area:

• 32975, 9,166, MRO, Jerome USA 12-23TF, Reunion Bay, t9/18; cum 477K 11/19;
• 32974, dry, MRO, Jorgenson USA 12-23H, Reunion Bay, no production data;


• 19446, IA/24, MRO, TAT USA 13-23H, Reunion Bay, t2/11; cum 91K 12/17, off-line as of 10/17; remains off line 11/19;


• 32970, 4,313, MRO, Loren USA 13-23TFH, 56 stages; 11.4 million lbs; Antelope, t8/18; cum 397K 11/19;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
SANISH	9-2018	30	65684	64673	71297	100404	0	96629
SANISH	8-2018	13	35492	35253	34530	37273	0	35249

• 32971, 8,702, MRO, Whitebody USA 14-23H, Reunion Bay, 57 stages; 12.9 million lbs, t8/18; cum 429K 11/19;
  

  Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
  BAKKEN	9-2018	27	54242	54640	43248	71743	0	68143
  BAKKEN	8-2018	10	39659	38738	32589	48655	0	46071

• 32972, 8,887, MRO, Lamarr USA 13-23TFH, Reunion Bay, t8/18; cum 418K 11/19;34484

  ool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
  BAKKEN	9-2018	21	74323	74020	77570	108206	0	103255
  BAKKEN	8-2018	5	17765	17352	10005	16877	0	1572



• 34484, 6,504, MRO, Yellowface USA 13-23H, Reunion Bay, t9/18; cum 386K 11/19; extrapolates to 81,700 bbls in 30 days;
  

  Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
  BAKKEN	9-2018	22	59992	59414	56538	63182	0	59228

The graphic:

***************************************

A Photo For The Granddaughters

Record IPs In The Bakken

For FAQs, go to this link; but FAQ #9 will no longer be updated there. Updates will be posted here.

Note: cumulative production will be affected by operators managing their assets and oil prices. 

9. What is the record IP to date in the Williston Basin? These may hold the record:

• August 18, 2020: the MRO wells in the Antelope-Sanish reported this date; 
• 36859, drl/A, MRO, Rock Woman USA 41-4TFH, API: 33-053-09177, Sanish-Antelope, t--; cum 209K over three months; a whopping 97K month; fracked 2/24/20 - 3/6/20; 8.0 million gallons of water (moderate frack); proppant composition not provided; extrapolates to 104K over 30 days;
  
• July 18, 2020:
• 35272, 3,376, CLR, Carson Peak 4-35HSL, middle Bakken, 40 stages; 16 million lbs (huge), Oakdale, t6/19; cum 485K 5/20; see this note;
• May 19, 2020
• Slawson, #31278, Torpedo Federal; actual 136,924 bbls in 29 days, extrapolates to 141,646 bbls over 30 days; link here;
  
• May 8, 2020: an EOG well that extrapolates to almost 110,000 bbls in a 30-day month; see this post;
• 36413, 2,058, EOG, Clarks Creek 106-0724H, Clarks Creek t9/19, cum 350K 3/20;
• 36415, 3,519, EOG, Clarks Creek 18-0719H, Clarks Creek,  t9/19; cum 315K 3/20;
• 36416, 2,859, EOG, Clarks Creek 105-0719H, Clarks Creek; t9/19; cum 264K 3/20;
• April 20, 2020: MRO wells in Four Bears; 
• December 2, 2019; link here;
• 35331, 6,028, MRO, Dietrich USA 11-2TFH, Reunion Bay, t9/19; cum 114K 58 days;
• 35330, 4,401, MRO, Holmgren 41-3H, Reunion Bay, t9/19; cum 61K 41 days;
• 35332, 5,530, MRO, Tommerdahl USA 11-2H, Reunion Bay, t9/19; cum 94K 58 days;
• June 29, 2019 
• Hess with all-time 24-IP US record; see AN-Bohmbach well below (#35093, #35095)
• June 5, 2019
• 31278, 4,862, Slawson, Torpedo Federal 10H, Big Bend, t12/18; cum 178K in 41 days; TD: 25,490 feet;139,068 bbls in 29 cays, 4/19: see this post;
• June 5, 2019; see this post;
• 32975, 9,166, MRO, Jerome USA 12-23TFH, Reunion Bay, t9/18; cum 372K 4/19; TD: 23,722 feet;
• May 30, 2019
• 35093, 10,626, Hess, AN-Bohmbach-153-94-2734H-8, Antelope-Sanish, t4/19; cum 68K after 24 days; cum 280K 5/20;

OTHERS / Pretty Much Chronological

Even though we have the record (above) "record" IPs will continue to be reported. 

December 9, 2019:

• 31458, 6,311, Bruin, FB James 150-94-3A-10-6B, Spotted Horn, t11/19; cum 373K 5/20; 
• 35962, 4,471, Bruin, FB James 150-94-3A-10-7T, Spotted Horn, t11/19; cum 142K 5/20;
• 35963, 4,103, Bruin, FB James 150-94-3A-10-8T2, Spotted Horn, t11/19; cum 111K 5/20;
• 35964, 5,029, Bruin, FB James 150-94-3A-10-9B, Spotted Horn, t11/19; cum 195K 5/20;
• 31455, 5,346, Bruin, FB James 15--94-3A-10-11B, Spotted Horn, t11/19; cum 230K 5/20;
• 31456, 4,617, Bruin, FB James 150-94-3B-10-12T, Spotted Horn, t11/19; cum 184K 5/20;
• 31457, 4,406, Bruin, FB James 150-94-3B-10-13B, Spotted Horn, t11/19; cum 258K 5/20;
• 31454, 5,603, Bruin, FB James 15-94-3A-10-10T, Spotted Horn, t11/19; cum 201K 5/20;

November 8, 2019:

• 34755, 4,485, MRO, Higgins 31-26TFH, Killdeer, t7/19; cum 250K 5/20; 
• 34756, 3,011, MRO, Snider 41-26TFH, Killdeer, t7/19; cum 194K 5/20;
• 36267, 4,301, MRO, Blanche 14-36H, Killdeer, t7/19; cum 219K 5/20; 
• 34764, 3,888, MRO, Jocelyn 14-36TFH, Killdeer, t7/19; cum 84K 9/19; 
• 34765, 2,467, MRO, Kinney 34-36TFH, Killdeer, t7/19; cum 95K 9/19; 
• 35175, 5,020, MRO, State Eggert 34-36H, Killdeer, t7/19; cum 118K 9/19;  
• 35176, 3,452, MRO, State Eileen 34-36TFH, Killdeer, t7/19; cum 89K 9/19;   
• 35177, 3,848, MRO, State Elias 34-36TFH, Killdeer, t7/19; cum 110K 9/19;
• 35178, 5,429, MRO, State Etta 44-36H, Killdeer, t6/19; cum 208K 5/20; 
• 35526, 2,795, MRO, Gwen 44-36TFH, Killdeer, t7/19; cum 147K 5/20;
• 35525, 6,220, MRO, Hayes 14-31H, Killdeer, t6/19; cum 235K 5/20; 
• 35524, 4,253, MRO, Mason 14-31TFH, Killdeer, t6/19; cum 204K 5/20;

November 7, 2019, all off line 5/20 during meltdown 2020:

• 36108, 5,396, MRO, Sarah 24-12TFH, Chimney Butte, t8/19; cum 91K in 54 days! cum 224
  K 5/20;
• 36120, 3,196, MRO, Tufte 24-23TFH, Chimney Butte, t8/19; cum 64K in 47 days! cum 191
  K 5/20;
• 36118, 4,348, MRO, Brewster 24-23TFH, Chimney Butte, t8/19; cum 74K in 56 days; cum 184
  K 5/20;
• 36119, 5,068, MRO, Bugbee 24-23H, Chimney Butte, t8/19; cum 68K in 52 days! cum 190
  K 5/20;
• 36352, 3,445, MRO, Delmont 34-23H, Chimney Butte, t8/19; cum 70K in 58 days! cum 217
  K 5/20;

• August 5, 2019 -- see these MRO wells in Reunion Bay; may have been previously posted;
• July 18, 2019 -- on this date MRO reported the following wells; note #35323:
• 34859, 4,748, MRO, Rochelle USA 21-17TFH, t5/19; cum 297K 5/20;
• 34862, 6,026, MRO, Turkey Feet USA 41-17TFH, t5/19; cum 309K 5/20;
• 34861, 5,243, MRO, Atkinson USA 31-17TFH, t5/19; cum 307K 5/20;
• 34860, 7,889, MRO, Bruhn USA 21-17H, t5/19; cum 369K 5/20;
• 35323, 9,614, MRO, Driftwood USA 41-17H, t5/19; cum 366K 5/20;
• 34858, 4,866, MRO, Miriam USA 11-17H, t5/19; cum 277K 5/20;
• June 29, 2019 
• Hess with all-time 24-IP US record; see AN-Bohmbach well below (#35093, #35905)
• June 5, 2019
• 31278, 4,862, Slawson, Torpedo Federal 10H, Big Bend, t12/18; cum 178K in 41 days; TD: 25,490 feet;139,068 bbls in 29 cays, 4/19: see this post;
• June 5, 2019; see this post;
• 32975, 9,166, MRO, Jerome USA 12-23TFH, Reunion Bay, t9/18; cum 372K 4/19; TD: 23,722 feet;
• May 30, 2019
• 35093, 10,626, Hess, AN-Bohmbach-153-94-2734H-8, Antelope-Sanish, t4/19; cum 68K after 24 days; 

• May 13, 2019
• 34045, 7,152, MRO, Gudmon 44-35TFH, Bailey, t3/19; cum 24K 6 days; see this post;
  
• February 7, 2019
• nine MRO wells 
• see this post, also: #33925 extrapolates to nearly 95,000 bbls/30-day month
• February 4, 2019
• 33636, 4,405, MRO, Irish USA 41-25TFH, Antelope-Sanish, t1/19; cum --
• 33637 4,181, MRO, Snowman USA 41-25H, Antelope-Sanish, t1/19; cum 27K over 8 days, extrapolates to 103,691 bbls/month;
• 33638, 4,402, MRO, Four Dances USA 41-25TFH, Antelope-Sanish, t12/18; cum 34K over 14 days, extraplates to 72,707 bbls/month
• February 1, 2019
• 34428, 7,993, MRO, Klaus 11-28H, runs south, API: 33-025-03422, 9.3 million gallons; 89% water by mass; Bailey, t12/18; cum --; tracked here; (#23980, #17883 -- both off-line)
• January 11, 2019
• 31774, 5,058, Bruin, Fort Berthold 151-94-26B-35-15H, 4 sections, 55 stages; 14.4 million lbs, Antelope-Sanish; a staggering well; t7/18; cum 294K 11/18; a staggering well;
• January 4, 2019
• 34668, 6,640, MRO, Drake 44-16H, Jim Creek, t11/18; cum 41K over 20 days which extrapolates to 62K over 30 days; #17999; #17374;
• 34666, 6,012, MRO, Northrop 34-16H, Jim Creek, t11/18; cum 34K over 23 days;
  #17999; #17374;
• 34892, 5,851, MRO, Gloria 24-16H, Jim Creek, t10/18; cum 57K over 38 days; #17999; #17374;
• 34667, 5,713, MRO, Veddy 44-16H, Jim Creek, t10/18; cum 90K over 38 days --
• November 27, 2018
• 33943, 6,396, MRO, Sibyl USA 44-19TFH, Reunion Day, t9/18; cum 172K 11/18;
• 33942, 6,516, MRO, McDonald USA 44-19H, Reunion Bay, t10/18; cum 78K 11/18;
• 33941, 6,943, MRO, Rue USA 44-19TFH, Reunion Bay, 33-061-04120, t10/18; cum 63K 10/18:
• 33943, 6,396, MRO, Sybyl USA 34-19TFH, Reunion Bay, Three Forks B1, only 45 stages; 6.6 million lbs, 33-061-04122, t918; cum 118K 10/18; years ago Lynn Helms said TF wells would be most likely be better than middle Bakken wells.
• November 21, 2018: MRO wells in Reunion County; incredible IPs; 
• November 20, 2018: 33413, 8,475, MRO, Chauncey USA 31-2H, Antelope, Sanish, t3/18; cum 305K 9/18;
• November 20, 2018: 33415, 7,572, MRO, June USA 31-2H, Antelope, Sanish, t3/18; cum 317K 9/18;  
• November 20, 2018: 30541, 4,871, Bruin, Fort Berthold 151-94-26A-35-4H, Antelope, 55 stages; 14.4 million lbs, an incredible well; staggering, t6/18; cum 292K 9/18; see this post;
• 32973, 9,061, MRO, Joshua USA 13-23TFH-2B, Three Forks B2, 56 stages; 11.4 million lbs, Reunion Bay, t9/18; cum 152K 11/18; 11.6 million gallons of water; 89% by weight; see this post with production profile;

October 16, 2018: 32972, 8,887, MRO, Lamarr USA 13-23TFH, Reunion Bay, fracked 6/25/2018 -- 7/9/18; 10 million gallons water; 88% water by weight 11% sand by weight, t8/18; cum -- ; (19446 - TAT USA 13-23H); see this post;

September 12, 2018: 32971, 8,702, MRO, Whitebody USA 14-23H, Reunion Bay, fracked 7/9/18 - 7/25/18; 10 million gallons water; 88% water by weight12% sand by weight, t8/18; cum -- ; (19446 - TAT USA 13-23H); see this post;

August 9, 2018: a number of MRO wells in Bailey oil field with huge IPs.

August 2, 2018: MRO with an IP of 7,448 -- Reunion Bay; see this post.

August 1, 2018: still on confidential, but for first full month of production, 95,959 bbls of oil; #30541, Bruin, Fort Berthold 151-94-26A-35-4H, Antelope; see this post;

June 29, 2018: Whiting, #33120 and #33121, with 70K+ and 80K+ in first unconstrined month;

May 3, 2018: Marathon, #33493, 8,160, MRO, Mark USA 11-1H, Antelope, Sanish pool, t4/18; cum 436K 5/20;

May 2, 2018: Marathon -- a number of records, it appears

April 18, 2018:

• 33415, 7,572, MRO, June USA 31-2H, Antelope, Sanish pool, API - 33-053-07958; 9.4 million gallons; 84%, t3/18; cum 535K 5/20;

December 31, 2017:

• 33398, 3,291, WPX, Hidatsa North 14-23HX, Reunion Bay, huge well; if this is not a typo, could be a new record: 83,607 bbls in the first full month

December 22, 2017:

• 32888, 6,278, MRO, Forsman USA 44-22H, Antelope, Sanish, 45 stages; 15 million lbs, t12/17; cum --

From the Whiting 1Q15 transcript: The Flatland Federal 11-4TFH well produced at an initial rate of 7,800 BOEs per day during a 24-hour test of the Three Forks formation, making this the very best well in the basin. The Flatland Federal 11-4HR well produced at an initial rate of 7,100 BOEs per day during a 24-hour test of the Middle Bakken formation.

From a November 11, 2014, post (see also the November 25, 2014, post, same subject); The first well, in the Middle Bakken formation, was completed with 94 stages and was flowing 7,120 BOE/d on October 10, 2014, according to the operator. When the well was completed, it established a world record for number of stages in a single well.

Soon after, an offset well in the Upper Three Forks formation was completed with 104 stages. This well was flowing 7,824 BOE/d on October 11, 2014. This was a hybrid completion comprising 97 NCS GripShift cemented casing sleeves, with seven NCS BallShift cemented ball-drop sleeves in the lower section of the well. In both wells, all stages were successfully fractured.

More to follow: in 2Q14 earnings report, WLL: Tarpon Well Completed in 2nd Bench of Three Forks Flowing 6,071 boepd. Not a record in the Bakken -- see Statoil's #23992. But still, this is huge for the second bench.

Statoil reported an IP of 5,417 on September 26, 2013: #23992, Beaux 18-19 7H, Banks oil field. Based on its IP for natural gas (9,663), this well had an IP of 7,083 boepd. 

Statoil reported an IP of 5,387 on July 19, 2013: #23387, Beaux 18-19 4H, Banks oil field. This might be a new record (this is the IP for crude oil only).

The initial production of any well, self-reported by the producer, is becoming less meaningful over time. Having said that, it looks like the record IP for a Bakken well is now 5,200, a Newfield well (July, 2011): 18691, 5,200, NFX, Wisness Federal 152-96-4-2H, Westberg, Bakken.

Statoil reported on July 10, 2013: 23385, 5,070, Beaux 18-19 6H, Banks, t6/13; cum -- ; 7 days to drill the lateral; I did not see completion data; 31 swell packers planned; 

Two earlier wells: a Whiting well which had an IP of 4,761 boepd: file #17612, 4,761 boepd IP, Whiting, Maki 11-27H, Mountrail County, Sanish field.  This is still current as of February 20, 2010. Since then, BEXP claims to have set a record with the Sorenson 29-32 1-H, #18654, with a 24-hour flowback of 5,133 bopd. However, the NDIC reported an IP of 2,944. BEXP also reported the Jack Cvancara 19-18 #1H (this site is down) in the Ross project area with a 24-hour flowback of 5,035.

New record in the Bakken, November 3, 2011. The Tarpon Federal 21-4H is a Whiting  Petroleum operated well and had a 24-hour initial production (IP) rate of 7,009 barrels of oil equivalent (BOE), setting a new Williston Basin record for a Bakken well.

Whiting said this was a record TFS well at the time, early 2012, file #20526, Smith 34-12TFH, 2,446, 102K in first 4.5 months.

A corollary: what is the best Bakken well? For 2012, click here. 60,000K in first month.

• 36266, 4,318, MRO, Dashu USA 44-11H, Chimney Butte, 45 stages, 8.2 million lbs, t8/19; cum 35K over 22 days;
• 36265, 5,929, MRO, Dorothy 14-12TFH,  Chimney Butte, 45 stages; 6.4 million lbs, t8/19; cum 61K over 29 days;

• 32525, 4,984, MRO, Kermit USA 14-9H, Antelope-Sanish, t8/17; cum 393K 6/19; that's almost 400K in less than two years; early production; see this link;
• 35093, 10,626, Hess, AN-Bohmbach-153-94-2734H-8, Antelope-Sanish, t4/19; cum 68K after 24 days;   

WTI Trades Below $55.50 -- Meeting Trump's Goal To Bring Down The Price Of Oil, Gasoline -- November 13, 2018

Bakken operators hedged through 2019 are going to make a killing. Others? Hard to say; depends on how long this will last and how much farther WTI will fall. CLR does not hedge. Most others do.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.


Active rigs:

$55.28🙈	11/13/2018	11/13/2017	11/13/2016	11/13/2015	11/13/2014
Active Rigs	65	54	38	64	188

Three new permits:

• Operators: Newfield (2); True Oil
• Fields: Pembroke (McKenzie), Red Wing Creek (McKenzie)
• Comments: True Oils Red Wing Creek permit targets the Madison formation; 

Ten permits renewed:

• CLR (7): five Jack permits in Dunn County; and two Sacramento permits in Williams County
• QEP (2): two MHA permits in Dunn County
• Petro Harvester: an STR1 permit in Burke County

Two permits canceled:

• Resource Erngy Can-Am: a Leona permit and a Mathilda permit, both in Divide County

One producing well (a DUC) reported as completed:

• 32973, 9,061, Joshua USA 13-23TFH-2B, Reunion Bay, t9/18; cum 58K over 15 days; extrapolates to 117K over 30 days; sundry forms not yet scanned in; 11.6 million gallons of water; 89% by weight;

Remember The Service Station "Gasoline Wars" In The 1950s? Now, Crude Oil Price Wars On A Global Scale-- November 13, 2018

Who's loving this? China. The country will buy as much as they can as fast as they can. They will be kicking themselves that they haven't built more storage.

From oilprice:

Global crude oil price war.

But is anyone paying attention?

Both from oilprice. I guess it all depends on what your definition of a "cliff" is. LOL.

That "falling off a cliff" article is linked here. It was posted November 12 -- yesterday. Amazing how fast oilprice took down that article and headline. It was one of the few articles I actually read at oilprice from beginning to end. It did not give me any comfort. Certainly no reason to feel bullish on oil right now. But then again, that's just me. This is not an investment site. [Update: I see oilprice has re-posted the "cliff" story.]

Cry me a river:

Mad Dogs and Englishmen

WTI Continues To Plunge; Drops Another 4%; Now Below $57.50 -- API US Crude Oil Inventory Data Out Later Today -- November 13, 2018 -- Obama Had His "War On Coal"; Trump Has His "War On Oil"

This is just one example of many during the period between 2014 and 2017 when Saudi Arabia tried to kill US fracking by flooding the market with oil:

It will be interesting to see if they try again.

The slump in oil prices, however, was due to "bait and switch" this time -- by President Trump. More on that later but the bottom line: the low gasoline prices that Americans are enjoying right now are 100% due to actions by President Trump.

Making America great again.

OPEC forecast: just released. Look at how fast things are changing. Last month, OPEC forecast non-OPEC growth to be 2.2 million bopd in 2019; this month -- just one month later -- OPEC predicts non-OPEC growth to be 2.3 million bopd in 2019:

With U.S. production alone estimated to have hit 11.6 million bpd earlier this month, it’s no wonder OPEC sees the United States as the biggest driver behind non-OPEC supply growth, which it sees this year at 2.31 million bpd. This is 90,000 bpd more than what OPEC forecast a month earlier, and will be also helped by higher production in Canada, Russia, and Kazakhstan.

Comment: I remember folks writing me several years ago suggesting that by now (2020) the world would be oil-short because no deepwater drilling was being done. This must be driving the "peak-oil"crowd nuts.

Also interesting: OPEC still doesn't know how to model shale production. It is very, very different than what they are used to when modeling conventional oil.

*********************************************

Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$57.45😧	11/13/2018	11/13/2017	11/13/2016	11/13/2015	11/13/2014
Active Rigs	65	54	38	64	188

Experts Back In 2011: "There Could Be A 10-Million-BOPD Shortage By 2015"; Northwest Passage Will Be Ice-Free By 2015 -- November 13, 2018

Updates

November 14, 2018: either no one caught it or no one bothered to report it but there's no way the US is going to be producing 50 million bopd by 2025 -- see WSJ headline below. This is the correct headline:

Original Post 

Link here.

DOE’s optimistic future supply forecasts are dangerously unrealistic, James S. Baldauf, president and cofounder of ASPO-USA, told reporters during an Oct. 26 press conference in front of DOE’s headquarters. “If these exuberant predictions are wrong, the consequences could be catastrophic. We need to be conservative in planning for the future,” he said. “We are not running out of oil. But we appear to be running out of oil that we can afford.”

The US Department of Defense’s Joint Operating Command said in its biennial report that a world oil supply shortfall would pose a serious challenge to military preparedness, he said in an e-mail to OGJ. “They have said that as soon as 2012, total world oil production will begin to decline, and that there could be a 10 million bbl/day shortage by 2015,” he indicated.

Note: that was back in 2011.

Link here.

Imagine that: " ... as soon as 2012, total world oil production will begin to decline, and that there could be a 10 million bbl/day shortage by 2015."

10 million bbl/day shortage. What were they smoking? Whatever it was, it probably wasn't even legal.

Memo to self: remind me to look at this report in December, 2025.

Fast forward to November 13, 2018.

From The WSJ today: the IEA predicts that the US will produce half of global oil and natural gas output by 2025 -- that could happen under President Trump's second term. IEA says growth in American production will be primarily driven by fracking. 

That in bold/red is a "cut/paste" from the WSJ. Here's the screenshot.

Huge glaring error in the headline. Free subscription to the blog for one year for first reader to note the huge glaring error. And this in the WSJ. Embarrassing. It will be interesting to see if they correct it. I bet they don't.

Memo to self: notes to Art Berman and Jane Nielson.

From the linked article:

In its annual World Energy Outlook report, the IEA said its main projection scenario through to 2040 foresees the U.S. accounting for nearly 75% and 40% of global oil and gas growth, respectively, over the next six years. Growth is expected to be driven primarily by shale fracking, which should lead U.S. shale oil supply to more than double, reaching 9.2 million barrels a day by the mid-2020s.

“The shale revolution continues to shake up oil and gas supply, enabling the U.S. to pull away from the rest of the field as the world’s largest oil and gas producer,” said the Paris-based organization that advises governments and corporations on energy trends. “By 2025, nearly every fifth barrel of oil and every fourth cubic meter of gas in the world come from the United States.”

The article is archived. 

Key point in that WSJ article was not mentioned. Saudi Arabia will be a net importer oil oil by 2040.

Saudi's foreign exchange reserves as of September, 2018, most recent available:

Oasis Reports Two Huge Wells -- November 13, 2018 -- Eleven Wells Come Off Confidential List -- Seven Of Them Are DUCs

Wells coming off the confidential list Tuesday, Monday, over the weekend (NDIC was closed Monday; Veterans Day observance):

Tuesday, November 13, 2018:

• 34844, 198, BR, Rink 8-1-5 MBH-R, Pershing, t9/18; cum --: for newbies, this is a typical IP for a BR well; it will be a nice well;
• 34366, SI/NC, XTO, Cherry Creek State 14X-36AXD, Siverston, no production data, 
• 34028, 286, NP Resources, Trotter State 145-102-23-14-2H, Cinnamon Creek, a nice well; about 11K per month for three consecutive months; t6/18; bcum 40K 9/18;
• 33869, SI/NC, MRO, Wickett 24-35TFH, Bailey, no production data, 
• 32943, 818, Oasis, Ceynar 5298 42-32 8B, Banks, t6/18; cum 113K 9/18: 

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	9-2018	30	20439	20371	13805	63932	31586	32188
BAKKEN	8-2018	31	29949	29926	22513	78783	46235	32385
BAKKEN	7-2018	31	26071	26069	17836	52476	50344	1969
BAKKEN	6-2018	30	22980	23044	15103	59036	36243	22635
BAKKEN	5-2018	19	13081	13003	22983	25538	21514	3924

Monday, November 12, 2018:

• 34368, SI/NC, XTO, Cherry Creek State 14X-36EXF, Siverston, no production data,  
• 32944, SI/NC, Oasis, Ceynar 5298 42-32 9T, Banks, t--; cum 69K 9/18:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	9-2018	30	17759	17688	18552	33905	33747	0
BAKKEN	8-2018	31	15657	15647	19101	47663	22142	25358
BAKKEN	7-2018	31	16684	16683	21615	41986	39854	1969
BAKKEN	6-2018	28	13809	13830	18912	28170	28023	0
BAKKEN	5-2018	19	4909	4880	15822	9574	6892	2582

Sunday, November 11, 2018:

• 34370, SI/NC, XTO, Cherry Creek State 14X-36B, Siverston, no production data,
• 33222, 1,173, CLR, Miles 6-6H2, Dimmick Lake, 4 sections, t8/18; cum 53K 9/18;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	9-2018	24	19050	19044	35854	35498	31031	4464
BAKKEN	8-2018	30	27214	27290	41447	49866	41428	8435
BAKKEN	7-2018	7	5779	5616	8479	9276	8432	844
BAKKEN	6-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2018	5	1001	1001	2605	2014	0	2014

Saturday, November 10, 2018:

• 34495, SI/NC, WPX, Howling Wolf 28-3HY, Wolf Bay, no production data, 
• 33315, SI/NC, Oasis, Muri 5198 11-4 3B, Banks, a huge well; t--; cum 136K 9/18;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	9-2018	30	33069	32752	26828	73179	34667	38332
BAKKEN	8-2018	31	30881	30881	24909	67559	39657	27716
BAKKEN	7-2018	31	34084	34084	26341	70792	66943	3663
BAKKEN	6-2018	30	34986	34986	28484	71067	65845	5042
BAKKEN	5-2018	12	3302	3302	18068	8713	6401	2240