Social Security: Barron's has a story out today that suggests that the Social Security solvency issue is a minor inconvenience at worse. This is the sub-headline in an article on how to prepare for cuts in Social Security: "Social Security isn't going away. Even in a worst-case scenario, you're going to get some of your promised benefits." Wow. The article says Congress will have to act before 2032 to prevent Social Security cuts.
If Congress fails to act, current and future Social Security recipients would see automatic benefit cuts. An average 54-year-old couple would lose up to $194,500 in lifetime benefits, while a high-earning couple would lose up to $509,000, according to the report from HealthView Services, a healthcare analytics firm for financial advisors.
The article suggests -- which I believe completely --is this: it you are over the age of 45 on/before 2032, you will see absolutely no cut in benefits. Congress can do what they did the last time: raise retirement age by one year, from 67 to 68. I've read somewhere else that increasing the contributions from 6.2% each (employer + employee to 12.4% total) to 6.7% would also solve the problem. I'm surprised it would take so little to get us out of this problem.
Whatever. I'm also convinced that the folks who read Barron's are absolutely unconcerned about this problem. A year ago, when I read practically the same article, I was no longer concerned.
President Trump leaves office in January, 2029, which means that the next president will be smack-dab in the middle of all this.
Let's do the math: a person earning $100,000 pays in 6.5% or $6,500 / year to social security. Raising that contribution from 6.5% to 7.0% would be a dollar increase to $7,000 / year or $500 more each year.
Investing: Repsol's 2Q26 adjusted profit more than triples on refining strength. RPPYY is up 86% in the past year; was up 2.45% for the day, at the close, July 22, 2026.
Mideast: twelfth (12th) consecutive night of bombing concluded at 10:30 p.m. ET, July 22, 2026.
Spectrum cable is "out" (down, not working) in our area and has been "out" several hours. The company has alerted us that they will update us every three hours!
I'm working off my cellular data which is much slower than my computer. So, bear with me. ERCOT capacity is well above demand, so it's not that. Unless, it's a regional thing.
Update: Spectrum has now gone nine hours with no solution. Spectrum is still down. Updates are given every three hours. The next update is scheduled for 4:00 a.m. CT.
Was it a cooling problem that caused this or did some foreign country hack into Spectrum?
AI -- the sixth industrial revolution (officially I guess it's the fourth industrial revolution). Corroborating this: Google's earnings release earlier today. Google's "Cloud" service revenue is growing faster than Search, YouTube, and other Google services.
Tesla: free-cash flow turned negative -- and this is before Elon Musk told us that 2027 will be a very, very expensive year for Tesla.
WTI: trading about a $1.50 earlier than this evening. This was after a tanker off the coast of Saudi Arabia was struck by a foreign object This particular tanker was in the Red Sea and the Houthis would most likely be responsible. This tanker was the one that made a u-turn earlier today; it is currently listing at 3 km/hour and apparently not under control. Much of this needs to be confirmed. It's amazing that Saudi Arabia let the Houthis get this far in active military warfare
A tanker was struck off Saudi Arabia just after Trump escalated verbal threats. It's very clear that a foreign country with satellites is providing Iran with specific coordinates of targets as small as ships. Hitting tankers off the coast of Saudi Arabia is clearly an act of desperation. Iran is clearly working / hoping to get Saudi Arabia to tell the USA to stop the bombing.
Everything suggests the Trump / Hegseth / CENTCOM plan is working. The question is whether the US Congress will permit it to go on. Apparently the US House has approved the Defense funding bill which will now go to the US Senate. If that's accurate, that's quite amazing how fast it seemed to get through the House. Clearly it is time for Trump / Hegseth / CENTCOM to quit (give in to Iranian demands) or "take the gloves off," as they say.
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Back to the Bakken
WTI: $88.40 (11:26 p.m. ET), Wednesday, late evening, July 22, 2026. Brent breaks $96.
New wells reporting:
- Friday, July 24, 2026: 37 for the month, 37 for the quarter, 390 for the year,
- None.
- Thursday, July 23, 2026: 37 for the month, 37 for the quarter, 390 for the year,
- 41545, conf, Oasis, Phoenix 5602 13-17 4B,
RBN Energy: which upstream E&Ps won investor favor in 1H26? Link here. Archived.
The first half of 2026 was a tale of two commodity markets as crude oil prices surged during the spring while natural gas prices retreated sharply after an exceptionally strong winter rally. Those diverging commodity trends led to higher profits and cash flows for those with the greatest exposure to strengthening oil prices while penalizing those most vulnerable to weakening natural gas markets. Yet commodity prices alone do not fully explain how investors allocated capital during the period. In today’s RBN blog, we examine H1 2026 shareholder returns across three upstream peer groups — Oil-Weighted, Diversified and Gas-Weighted E&Ps — to identify not only which companies outperformed during the first half of 2026, but also why investors rewarded certain business models over others.
Figure 1 below compares the relative performance of the XOP Index (blue line), WTI crude oil price (orange line) and the S&P 500 (gray line) during the first half of 2026. The XOP Index, the State Street version of the S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Index, closely tracked the dramatic swings in crude oil prices, although with considerably less volatility. WTI briefly climbed to nearly $113/bbl in early April, almost doubling from the start of the year, as escalating tensions involving Iran heightened concerns over global supply disruptions. As those fears eased during the second quarter, oil prices retreated but still finished the first six months of the year up just over 21%.
