Four New Permits -- WTI Bounces Back -- November 22, 2022

Link here:

• Sempra confirmed Tuesday it reached a 20-year supply deal with ConocoPhillips to provide 5M metric tons/year of liquefied natural gas from Phase 1 of the proposed Port Arthur LNG project under development in south Texas.
• ConocoPhillips also will acquire 30% of the equity in Phase 1 of Port Arthur LNG and will manage the feedgas supply requirements for Phase 1 of the proposed liquefaction facility.
• The planned $10.5B Phase 1 would be capable of producing as much as ~13.5M metric tons/year of liquefied natural gas, with cargoes expected to be delivered starting in 2027; a similarly sized Port Arthur LNG Phase 2 project also is under active marketing and development.
• Sempra said recently it is expecting to make a final investment decision for Phase 1 in Q1 2023.

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Back to the Bakken 

Active rigs: 37.

WTI: $81.30.

Natural gas: $6.958.

Four new permits, #39427 - #39430, inclusive:

• Operators: Hunt Oil (2); Petro-Hunt (2)
• Fields: Green Lake (Williams); Boxcar Butte; Moline
• Comments:
• Hunt has permits for two Blue Ridge wells, lot 2 section 5-159-100, to be sited 480 FNL with one at 2331 FEL and one at 2301 FEL
• Petro-Hunt has permits for two wells, both SESE 33-149-102, to be sited 420 FSL with one at 735 FEL and onee at700 FEL.

Disney Paid Subscribers -- November 22, 2022

Investors.

Streaming: link here. Streaming wars.

Link here.

Again, For Now, (Mostly) Just The Links -- November 22, 2022

From the NY Times, link here:

 Except for turkeys, looks transitory to me, macro, link here:

mRNA, link here:

 What's PFE doing? Up almost two percent today, but well off its highs.

How the EIA has become politicized.  

This is from today:

This is from their website:

Can you spot the problem?

Turkeys: unlike turkeys, no one is giving away free gasoline.

Plan B? November 22, 2022

From Bloomberg today.

Less than two weeks: December 5, 2022.

The European Union’s ban on seaborne imports of Russian crude is due to come into effect December 5, 2022. 

But one country is lagging in its efforts to secure alternative supplies, and it needs to step up the pace.

Italy is now Moscow’s most important European market, with a refinery owned by Russian oil giant Lukoil PJSC the single biggest buyer. That’s causing a problem for the Italian government.

While other European buyers have already backed away from Russian crude, Lukoil has moved in the opposite direction, using its European refineries as a handy consumer of crude it can’t sell elsewhere on the continent. That policy has worked well for the company so far, enabling it to avoid costly and time-consuming shipments to India that have been the sole recourse for its competitors.

Flows of Russian crude into northern Europe, previously the most important destination for shipments from the Baltic and Arctic terminals, have fallen by more than 90% since early February, before Moscow’s troops invaded Ukraine. In contrast, shipments to Italy have more than doubled during the same period.

But that’s going to have to stop about two weeks from now. And Italy has no plan for life after that, even though the implementation date for the EU sanctions was set back in June.

The Lukoil refinery is the biggest in Italy, providing the equivalent of 20% of the country’s fuel needs. Its closure would put at risk more than 3,000 jobs on the island of Sicily.

Unlike the German government, which stepped in to take control of its big Russian-controlled refinery near Berlin, Rome has done little.

Lukoil has mulled selling the plant, but earlier this month rejected an offer from a US private equity group to buy it.

The Italian government may seek a delay to the imposition of EU sanctions in order to avoid closure of the plant, but that will only provide a temporary solution at best. And there’s no guarantee it will get a waiver.

At some point Rome is going to have to take direct action, either forcing Lukoil to sell or stepping in itself. The sooner it does so, the better.

--Julian Lee, Bloomberg oil strategist

Fast And Furious -- Just The Links For Now -- November 22, 2022

Locator: 33201C.

Permian natural gas: all that talk that production has peaked -- premature.

• Texas: by itself, bigger than Qatar
• then there's the Eagle Ford
• then the Bakken
• and, those are "oil" basins.
• We haven't even got to the natural gas basins:
• Utica, Marcellus, Haynesville, Barnes,

Starbucks: just say "no" to unions.

Apple:

• I don't need to beat the market by one percent; I need to sleep well at night.
  
• Tesla, a partner?
• Magic Trackpad 2 sold out -- and it's not even Thanksgiving yet 
• Walmart: Black Friday deals are now a week long
  
• China: hasta luego.
• Hello, Arizona.
  

Covid-19: low IQ-anon.

• getting spoofed.

Cost of renewables: rising, faster than ever.

Amazon, well positioned -- JPMorgan.

MSFT: business model.

Arctic, Equinor: investing the equal of 2,000 Bakken wells.

Josh Young: wow.

CLR: to cease trading prior to tomorrow morning, November 23, 2022.

Enbridge: will apportion space on the huge Mainline.

WSJ / OPEC: needs to be investigated.

• and, here; and, here;
• Saudi first.

EVs not for me, link here:

• Lucid: why the stock crashed, November 21 2022, Motley Fool.
• Rivian: DTC won't work.

Solomon Islands earthquake, 7.0, massive; oil companies told to quit fracking in the Pacific.

Argo, startup backed by Ford and VW:

• layoffs, July 8, 2022;
• shut-down, October 26, 2022.

Moats, link here.

Snow. Our grandkids will never see snow again -- Patrick Kennedy, et al.

Basque: earliest document found.

Marcel Proust: where to begin?

Jane Austen: almost quit.

Dr Zhivago, TCM.

Offices: how ideas take shape.

Sex: how Medieval Era writers dealt with sex.

Lego, link here.

Wow, Wow, Wow -- November 22, 2022

Link here.

North Dakota Legacy Fund -- November, 2022, Data

Link here.

Will The US Gulf Coast Soon Be Home To Floating LNG Export Capacity? RBN Energy -- November 22, 2022

Talking turkey: I wonder if the "Farm Bureau" will update their survey?

• from November 16, 2022: 

The centerpiece on most Thanksgiving tables – the turkey – costs more than last year, at $28.96 for a 16-pound bird. That’s $1.81 per pound, up 21% from last year, due to several factors beyond general inflation. 

• $30 is about half the price of the entire $65 dinner
• today on CBS (according to a reader; I don't watch network television), turkeys are now going for 90 cents / pound 
• at 90 cents / pound, that's significantly less than last year 
• the Farm Bureau, in the narrative, did note that turkeys could be fond for a lot less than $1.81 / pound but that was not their headline story;
• much could be said but we must move on.

Gasoline: in north Texas, most expensive gasoline (regular) is $2.79; one can it for less.

Crude oil in the US: days of supply drop to 27.4 days.

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Back to the Bakken

The Far Side: unable to reach The Far Side server.

ISO NE: should be $10 -- not $110. A reminder: the incumbents won.

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: 37.

WTI: $81.52.

Natural gas: $6.639.

Wednesday, November 23, 2022: 40 for the month, 77 for the quarter, 622 for the year.
38786, conf, Medicine Hole 8-27H,
37954, conf, CLR, Brangus Federal 5-11H1,

Tuesday, November 22, 2022: 38 for the month, 75 for the quarter, 620 for the year.
38787, conf, CLR, Medicine Hole 9-27H1,
37955, conf, CLR, Brangus FIU 4-11H,

RBN Energy: will the US gulf coast soon be home to floating LNG export capacity?

The need for more LNG export capacity, driven both by Europe’s push to wean itself off Russian gas and long-term Asian demand growth, is resulting in a new wave of development. Two major U.S. projects have reached a positive final investment decision (FID) in the past six months and more are likely to do so soon, both in the U.S. and elsewhere. But conventional export terminals take time to build, leading at least some, like New Fortress Energy, to explore the potential for floating LNG (FLNG) facilities — basically, an LNG export terminal located on the topside of a large tanker — which can bring new capacity online faster, much like the floating storage and regasification units (FSRUs) that are now boosting European import capacity. In today’s RBN blog, we take a look at FLNGs, what’s already out there, and what could be coming to North America in the next few years.