This may be one of the most under-reported stories this month. The big question is, "why did it take so long?"
Interestingly enough, the country that gave us western law and the Kirke, gave us this.
From USA Today: Scotland becomes world's first country to make sanitary pads for women free.
One of the best books I ever read, and one that remains on my top shelf:
************************************** TCM Lineup -- Thanksgiving Day
Awesome lineup.
During the day, several movies for older children, though younger children will also enjoy them, as will most adults.
Evening: two great classics, The Rear Window, and The Man Who Knew Too Much.
And elsewhere, I assume there will be social justice, equality, and a BLM-sponsored pro ballgame between a 2 - 7 team and a 1- 8 team.
************************************** Cornish Hen
If I am dining alone on Thanksgiving, my preferred dish: Cornish hen.
Because I will be dining with Corky, Sophia, and Sophia's family tomorrow, I had my Thanksgiving-dinner-for-one tonight. And wow, it turned out nicely. Mashed potatoes, turkey gravy, and Cornish hen. Next year I will add the sides. LOL.
Preparation: ten minutes, at most.
Cornish hen baked on a bed of rosemary and thyme; always trussed;
first time, tonight, I added a slice of thick-cut, high-quality bacon -- just one slice -- on the bed of rosemary/thyme;
brushed with oil; rub of Weber's "Kickin' Chicken," small amount of pepper; smaller amount of salt;
basted with butter during cooking
one Cornish hen: 60 minutes uncovered; an additional 15 minutes covered; at 350°F
Note: if you like crispy skin, and I do, so I will do this differently next time, don't baste with butter.
I haven't seen an article o Hubbert's peak oil theory in a long, long time.
The well:
35690, SI/NC--F/NC, BR, Tailgunner 1E MBH, North Fork, t--; cum 54K after 13 days; t--; cum 97K 9/20; 53K over 13 dayks extrapolates to 123K bbls over 30 days; fracked 11/14/19 - 11/21/19 (fast frack); 7.9 million gallons of water; 88% water by mass;
Pool
Date
Days
BBLS Oil
Runs
BBLS Water
MCF Prod
MCF Sold
Vent/Flare
BAKKEN
9-2020
30
37735
37758
17079
64966
62733
2233
BAKKEN
8-2020
3
5420
5111
2379
7756
7551
205
BAKKEN
7-2020
31
0
0
0
0
0
0
BAKKEN
6-2020
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
BAKKEN
5-2020
31
0
569
0
0
0
0
BAKKEN
4-2020
13
53936
53690
23690
63486
49400
13398
********************** Nearest Well
This well is the nearest well to the west but its jump in production was not due to the well above, but several other XTO wells fracked on the same pad:
20132, 1,029, XTO, Badlands Federal 21X-13, North Fork, t9/11; cum 261K 9/20; nice, huh? A jump from 1500 bbls/month to 35K bbls/month;
Pool
Date
Days
BBLS Oil
Runs
BBLS Water
MCF Prod
MCF Sold
Vent/Flare
BAKKEN
9-2020
21
12174
12272
18607
20784
19512
1223
BAKKEN
8-2020
31
34723
34731
43101
60552
55488
4983
BAKKEN
7-2020
9
5269
4897
9081
7771
6381
1377
BAKKEN
6-2020
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
BAKKEN
5-2020
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
BAKKEN
4-2020
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
BAKKEN
3-2020
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
BAKKEN
2-2020
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
BAKKEN
1-2020
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
BAKKEN
12-2019
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
BAKKEN
11-2019
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
BAKKEN
10-2019
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
BAKKEN
9-2019
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
BAKKEN
8-2019
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
BAKKEN
7-2019
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
BAKKEN
6-2019
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
BAKKEN
5-2019
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
BAKKEN
4-2019
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
BAKKEN
3-2019
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
BAKKEN
2-2019
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
BAKKEN
1-2019
1
8
65
0
18
0
17
BAKKEN
12-2018
25
975
1064
487
2513
1848
0
BAKKEN
11-2018
30
1257
1283
606
3147
2327
0
BAKKEN
10-2018
31
1341
1400
683
3271
2424
0
BAKKEN
9-2018
30
1298
1383
702
3228
2325
219
BAKKEN
8-2018
31
1297
1190
718
3224
2518
52
BAKKEN
7-2018
31
1437
1399
773
3523
2658
116
Despite the price of oil (WTI is running about $45/bbl on recent jump in price -- 11/25/20), look at all the activity in this area (it is a rectangle six miles long, and about three miles wide -- or eighteen square miles and that's it):
34384, SI/NC-->SI/A, BR, Veeder 3A MBH, Blue Buttes, minimal production; then none after the first seven days; 45K over 13 days, 5/20; fracked 12/28/19 - 1/5/20; 6.9 million gallons of water; 88.6% water by mass; 45K over 13 days extrapolates to 104K over 30 days;
Pool
Date
Days
BBLS Oil
Runs
BBLS Water
MCF Prod
MCF Sold
Vent/Flare
BAKKEN
9-2020
30
24675
24772
6242
38530
35693
2690
BAKKEN
8-2020
31
27293
27213
6555
64793
43128
21469
BAKKEN
7-2020
7
8622
8424
1644
17983
17764
0
BAKKEN
6-2020
0
0
579
0
0
0
0
BAKKEN
5-2020
13
44915
44336
11108
72131
69892
2192
BAKKEN
4-2020
30
0
0
0
0
0
0
BAKKEN
3-2020
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
BAKKEN
2-2020
7
0
0
0
0
0
0
BAKKEN
1-2020
7
641
641
8840
852
849
0
See this well:
19288, Veeder, BR, Blue Buttes, halo; this is a better post; 19288, 984, BR, Veeder 14-24H, 33-053-03208, Blue Buttes, t4/11; cum 302K 3/20;not
re-fracked according to FracFocus or the NDIC in 2017; huge jump 11/17;
look at #32909 - 32911 above; re-fracked in December, 2019;
I remember while serving in the military and in retirement, non-military folks talking about how lonely we must have gotten when deployed overseas or deployed away from our families over the holidays.
Everyone's experience, of course, was different, and even for individuals, their experiences varied from one holiday to the next, and from one year to the next.
Good commanders were aware of the "lonely soldier" meme and worked to address it.
For me, it seemed the families were the lonely ones. It might have been worse for families stationed overseas, compared to families living stateside. I don't know. We were stationed overseas for thirteen consecutive years while in the military so Europe (and Asia, to some extent) became the family's home.
Overseas, the families bonded together very, very well, for the most part.
For me, the active duty member, I don't recall ever being lonely over the holidays except on one occasion. And that one exception was because I was truly alone. But generally, active duty personnel are deployed with a group of fellow soldiers, seamen, airmen. I suppose the big exceptions: forward air controllers, spies, an occasional medic. But I digress.
As I was saying, generally, active duty personnel were deployed with others and the bond among the group was incredible. In addition, on most deployments I was kept so busy that I never had the chance to feel lonely. In addition, while deployed, calendars really weren't a thing. December 23rd seemed a lot like December 24th and that seemed a lot like December 25th. In fact, it seemed, thinking back on it, it almost seemed worse if folks tried to make the holidays "special" or "different."
That was my experience. But it would have been different for everyone.
Interestingly, on a bummer of a note, I do believe depression and suicide was more of a problem when back at home compared to deployments.
My hunch: loneliness and holidays are worse for roughnecks and truckers in the Permian and the Bakken. The military had incredibly good support systems and really, really worked to take care of their own. Those support systems, it seems are often lacking in other sectors.
I do remember the most lonely moments ... and they were moments, not hours or days. Those moments usually occurred when I was on a 24-hour emergency room shift. About 1:00 a.m. to 3:00 a.m. if things were slow, nothing going on, it could be very lonely in a small, USAF hospital in the middle of nowhere: one physician, one nurse, and two medical technicians. The radiology technician might have been down the hall but that was about it. An empty waiting room, eerily quiet. And then, for a moment, I would feel lonely.
I never asked my dad -- who served in the US Navy on a troop carrier -- if he ever got lonely. I know he was very, very close to his mother -- and for that reason, I think he may have had spells of melancholy or loneliness but he never spoke of being lonely. He always said the best two years of his life -- he lived to be almost 96 years old -- were those in the US Navy.
The one musician who can make me unbelievably lonely: Floyd Cramer.
************************************ Memories
Wow, wow, wow. A great idea.
It won't be many years now -- and that's assuming we stay in good physical and mental health -- otherwise it might be even sooner -- that my wife and I end up in an assisted living facility, each confined to a single room, at best.
Because we were seldom apart for extended periods during our lives, we really don't have many letters to treasure in our old age, when confined to that single room. We have lots of photos, but not a lot of letters.
I have kept journals for the three granddaughters from the day they were born. I now have dozens or maybe even scores of journals for the three granddaughters. Then listening to the George Jones song below, it struck me.
I'm going to start a journal for my wife, writing short one- or two-page vignettes -- seed stories, Sophia would call them -- about our years together. Then when we move into our single rooms I will set the journal(s) by her bedside for nighttime reading.
Even if our minds are gone, we might enjoy reading about a couple that were in love for 50+ years.
Renewed permits: over the past couple of weeks -- let's gild the lily -- ever since the election, there seems to be a rush to renew permits in the Bakken. Hmmm, gee, I wonder what that could be all about?
Active rigs:
$45.90
11/25/2020
11/25/2019
11/25/2018
11/25/2017
11/25/2016
Active Rigs
14
57
62
53
37
Three new permits, #37990 - #37992, inclusive:
Operator: BR
Fields: Lone Butte (Dunn), Little Knife (Dunn)
Comments:
BR has permits for a 3-well Lloyd Christmas/Tilton pad in SESW 7-147-97; one in Little Knife; two in Lone Butte;
the three wells will be sited 236/237 FSL and between 2099 and 2144 FWL
Twenty-four permits renewed:
Crescent Point Energy (12): six Ruby permits; six Holmes permits, all in Williams County;
Equinor (4): two Larsen permits and two L. Tufto permits, all in Williams County;
Hess (4): four LK-Bice permits in Dunn County;
CLR (3): two Schroeder permits, Williams County; and, one Stewart permit, Divide County;
Rimrock Oil & Gas: one Moccasin Creek permit in Dunn County
The BR permits in Lone Butte:
19184, 1,281, BR, Tilton 34-7H, Lone Butte, t3/11; cum 254K 9/20; current production is about as good as initial production; four stimulations:
Anyone paying attention is very, very aware of this story. But we all need reminding now and then, again.
Link to Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty: Bitcoin miners are starving entire cities of electricity. Think about that as the Biden administration plans to phase out fossil fuel and switch over to renewable (spoiler alert: not gonna work).
From the linked article:
Byline: Sukhumi, Abkhazia: In the side streets and narrow alleys of Abkhazia’s main city, a low
growl and an oily stench are commonplace. Thrumming diesel generators
provide power amid rolling blackouts that have infuriated residents and
evoked memories of the post-war chaos nearly three decades ago.
But what’s more infuriating for many Abkhaz is what’s causing the blackouts: bitcoin.
Or,
to be more precise, the cryptocurrency “miners” whose computer servers
are sucking the breakaway Georgian region’s electrical grid dry.
“To be honest, after the war, in my opinion, it was easier,” said one frustrated Sukhumi resident, Rimma Khashba, 67.
“We
have to get used to the schedule that they dictate to us. It’s very
difficult because it’s constant: The lights are on, the water’s off; the
water’s on, the lights are off. Or the Internet goes off. You can’t
even turn on the washing machine to do the wash,” she told RFE/RL.
Cryptocurrency values are soaring. A single bitcoin is now worth around $19,000.
Isolated
and cut off from much of the world since 2008, Abkhazia’s economy
relies heavily on trade with Russia, with produce heading north and
Russian tourists and intrepid businessmen heading south.
But since 2016, the region of 250,000 people has also been home to a
thriving cryptocurrency industry. Entrepreneurs -- mainly Russian -- are
importing computer parts and taking advantage of Abkhazia’s cheap
electricity rates, inexpensive real estate, and loose regulations from
the de facto government to set up “server farms” and seek profit from
the global explosion in digital currencies.
Unlike real-world
currencies, which are printed or minted by governments, digital
currencies, roughly speaking, involve running sophisticated computer
algorithms that basically create -- or “mine” -- the currencies. That
requires major amounts of energy-intensive, expensive computer hardware.
I've long lost the bubble with regard to President Obama transferring pallets of cash to Iran back in 2018 or something like that. I don't know what's true any more. Machts nichts. But there is now a story that is being reported in multiple sources that Israel is preparing for another delivery to Iran by another president before he leaves office. No, it won't be cash this time.
Four days ago it was reported that the US deployed an unspecified number of B-52s on short notice from Minot AFB, ND, to the Mideast. That was four days ago. The jets obviously made it; if they had not, we would have read about it in The New York Times. TheB-52s are being serviced as we speak, bomb-loaders are reviewing their standard operating procedures, weapon-system operators are reviewing their maps, and pilots are reviewing their checklists.
As for me, I'm going to watch Dr Strangelove again tonight.
The bombardier in that movie, by the way, was none other than Darth Vader.
I've had one eight-hour sortie in a B-52, and this is as realistic as it gets in a movie like this:
The story of how Slim Perkins ended up in this movie is ... well, worthy of a screenplay.
****************************** US Presidential Politics
In light of recent developments on Thanksgiving eve, perhaps it's time to re-read this short post.
It takes four justices to vote to "grant certiorari" for the US Supreme Court to "take the case"
for argument. However each Circuit Court is assigned to (normally one)
Justice for "immediate" appeals. That justice can refer the "immediate"
case to the full Court and issue emergency stays and such. These
situations are not the actual resolution of the case, which only occurs
at the full Court (nine justices).
From ESPN: NFL says "face shields" no longer acceptable. NFL will only allow "face masks and/or double layer gaiters."
This almost qualifies for a two-fer.
I would love to see Reid come out wearing a MAGA mask!
Non sequitur: time must be slowing down for Joe Biden. I see a judge has stepped in and stopped certification of Pennsylvania's presidential votes. LOL. Probably wants to see the software code used in the voting machines. That would be a good start. And then "run the tape again." LOL.
************************************* A Musical Interlude
It began with this.
From a reader this morning, after Corky re-surfaced:
I sent that to the reader with these observations:
At some level this song/recording is so incredibly bad you can't help listening to it a second time. And a third time. LOL.
The scratchiness, the hauntingly slow beginning suggests something Kenneth Anger might use in one of his short films.
Also, at the very beginning ... just after the introductory notes .... does this not take you to the Beach Boys' In My Room?
In My Room, The Beach Boys
And then, immediately following, there's a phrase/line -- musically and lyrically -- that sounds almost like "..and then I saw Santa Claus kissing you..." or whatever the song was ...
Final observation: if David Lynch's movies were only a few hours longer, he would have incorporated this song. LOL. This song has/had "David Lynch" written all over it -- decades before David Lynch was even a thing.
[One last thing: My Boyfriend's Back won't work for Sophia/Corky: Corky is a "she." The reader knew that but sent revised lyrics for the tune. LOL]
On a completely different note, reading the wiki link and the comments over at YouTube's PS I Love You and My Boyfriend's Back I find myself wishing I had grown up in New Jersey, just across the river from NYC, or near the Jersey beaches in the 1950s. There's another connection, of course, my first true love, who passed away some years ago, was born and raised in Westfield, NJ, a bedroom community of NYC. I spent a lifetime in Westfield decades ago: for me it was a lifetime, for her, my visit was probably not much more than a blip in her life.
And finally, the last connection: Sally Horner, Vladimir Nabokov's Lolita in the eponymously-named novel, lived just up the road from Wildwood and Cape May. She lived in Camden; her "new" boyfriend lived in Vineland.
Wow, I'm in a great mood. I have the entire day free. Free.
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.
Investing: I'm not a market timer, and 90% of my investments are managed by "professionals." I am only directly involved with about 10% of my investments. I would have done much better in (my financial) life had 100% of my investments been managed by "professionals" but it would have been nowhere as much fun and I certainly would not have known as much about the market, the economy, the world in general.
Be that as it may, it was wonderful to see the market pull back a bit today, giving me an opportunity to begin a new position in a blue chip company that pays a nice dividend that I held years ago but also sold years ago. Yesterday, at the "all-time high" I sold shares in some company that no longer "thrilled" me -- I don't know if I made money or lost money -- I don't care -- it was a win-win either way, but it was time to move on. I often park money in an equity just to park money somewhere, with no plans to hold it there long. If it does great, wonderful. If not, the government shares in the loss -- and believe me, with this market, we all need some losses to offset our gains -- LOL. What a great country.
On social media, someone wrote that he/she was a buy-and-buy-and-buy investor. None of that buy-and-hold-and-sell-and-buy type of investor. He/she noted that he/she had lost (significantly) on many investments and should have sold but those losses were more than made up by holdings that he/she called "10-baggers." One more or may not agree, but I know where he/she is coming from: I've rued the day often over some of the companies I had in my portfolio and then sold. I could have retired many times over had I held forever.
But, break-break-break, I'm breaking my own rule -- in investing, it's never a good idea of looking back and thinking "what-could-have-been." I'm not saying that one shouldn't look back on one's experiences and try to learn from them, but one should not obsess over what-might-have-been.
Best Buy is the latest big name retailer (following fellow Minnesota-based retailer Target last week) to blow it out of the water for the third quarter as consumers have come to view it as an essential retailer during the pandemic.
It has also helped that Best Buy has adapted to its new environment.
Best Buy shares oddly fell slightly in pre-market trading on Tuesday despite third quarter same-store sales surging 23%.
Non-GAAP operating margins rose 190 basis points from a year ago to 6.1%.
Best Buy saw huge same-store sales gains in the U.S. pandemic-related categories: computing and mobile phones (up 47%); consumer electronics (up 29%); appliances (up 14%).
For Best Buy, the quarterly gains reflect its pivot to new consumer
behaviors during the coronavirus pandemic. The company has moved to
bring packages out to customers’ cars and also expanded its same-day
delivery services. Most of the company’s stores reopened during the
quarter after being closed earlier in the year for foot traffic because
of the pandemic. [I can guarantee you that bringing packages out to customers' cars had little to do with this. LOL.]
Here is how Best Buy performed versus Wall Street’s third quarter estimates.
Net Sales: $11.85 billion versus $10.98 billion
Same-Store Sales: Up 23% versus 13.8% increase
Diluted EPS: $2.06 versus $1.72
****************************** Footprints
My carbon footprint is smaller than the size of one of John Kerry's walk-in closets, and I would rather spend time with Sophia than with Greta.
Can you image a 12-hour flight (and back) just to spend a day with Greta for the photo op. No thanks.
Twelve cars. Wow. I wonder how many of them are EVs. And six houses? Wow.
********************************* Kelly the Krab Out
You wouldn’t know it from the $2.50-plus/MMBtu Henry Hub prompt
natural gas futures prices in the past couple of months, but the U.S.
gas market this injection season just barely managed to avoid a complete
meltdown. Despite gas production volumes trailing year-ago levels all
summer long, it wasn’t until the last month or two of the traditional
injection season (April through October) that the market tightened
enough to escape a major storage crunch. In reality, it took the
multi-pronged effects of production cutbacks — in part from
hurricane-related disruptions — higher LNG and pipeline exports, and
cooler fall weather, to make that happen. Today, we review the U.S.
natural gas supply/demand balance and implications for 2021.
The Lower 48’s natural gas market has come a long way since the early
days of summer. Less than six months ago, the prompt gas futures prices
were scraping along 25-year lows just below $1.50/MMBtu, and the
storage inventory was carrying a hefty 600-plus-Bcf surplus vs. last
year that, if it lingered through fall, threatened to test the U.S.
storage capacity limit. By the end of October, however, the traditional
threshold between injection season and the winter withdrawal season,
that surplus had been whittled down to less than 200 Bcf; the November
prompt contract expired just shy of $3/MMBtu; and December futures
stepped into prompt position at upwards of $3.30/MMBtu, which was the
highest we’ve seen during October trading in six years. That bullishness
has receded in November with the warmer-than-normal weather and rising
storage surplus, but prices remain at a premium to year-ago levels.
Yeah, I don't think folks understand from where the funding comes for highways on which EVs drive. LOL. Big Orrin made my day. Thank you.
Australia is taxing consumers who refuse to burn fossil fuels, according to Renew Economy.
First, it was the carbon price that was world-leading — then trashed to please those who think climate change is a hoax.
Then there was the possibility of introducing fuel efficiency standards — an idea that got trashed as well when the media touted it as a “carbon tax on wheels.”
This made Australia “a dumping ground for dirty and expensive cars,” the article pointed out, while emphasizing that those engines are so inefficient that, according to the government’s own estimates, it added around $600 annually to the fuel cost of the average family car, and billions of dollars to the country’s health bill.
Our cable (Spectrum) television -- streaming -- was out earlier the morning. The outage must have lasted about four hours. I didn't check the television set to see if cable television was on -- I assume it was -- it was only the streaming app -- as far as I know -- that was down.
September 30, 2020: $29,300,951 million or $29.3 trillion
$29.3 trillion x 1.084 = $31.76 trillion
Now assume, the top 10% of the US population held 90% of that $31.76 trillion (use your own numbers/assumptions if you don't like mine):
0.9 x $31.76 trillion = $28.584 trillion
US population: 330 million
$28.584 trillion / 33 million = $866,181.
So, rounding, assume that the top ten percent of the US population saw their net worth in equity investments jump almost one million dollars between September 30, 2020 and November 24, 2020, any wonder that home sales are surging? From today's news (no link; Google blogger app won't allow it, but googling key phrases in story below will lead you to it; hint: Breitbart):
New single-family houses sold in October at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 999,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development.
The figure for September sales was revised up from 959,000 to 1,002,000. That was initially reported as a decline from August and below expectations.
The October figure is 41.5 percent above the sales figure from a year earlier.
Apart from the revised September number, it is the fastest sales rate since November 2006.
Figures were revised up for August and July, as well. That indicates that the boom in single-family homes has been even stronger than the data suggested.
Extremely low mortgage rates and a surge in demand for single-family homes has lifted the residential real estate market this year. Demand for commercial properties, from offices to rental apartments, is down in many big cities as remote working, closed schools, rising murders, and shuttered urban amenities have sent Americans searching for houses in the suburbs.
New homes account for about 14 percent of the housing market.
But because homebuilding is labor-intensive and new homes need to be outfitted with consumer goods, the category punches above its weight-class when it comes to the broader economy.
The median selling price rose 2.5 percent from a year earlier to $330,600, an indication that demand for new homes remains very high. Supply has struggled to catch up with demand for homes after the building industry shutdown across much of the country this spring. A shortage of existing homes on the market is pushing some buyers into the new home market.
I have a pet peeve with this story and this analysis, but I've run out of time.
One last thing: my net worth since September 30, 2020, did not quite increase by $866,000 which means I am not in the top 10% of the US when it comes to holding equities. Oh, well. Another star to shoot for.
