Week 17: April 25, 2021 -- May 1, 2021

Top story of the week:

• Joe Biden is still president.

Top international non-energy story:

• Significantly worse: Saudi Arabia's foreign exchange reserves;

Top international energy story:

Top national non-energy story:

• Census: Texas gains two US House seats; California, NYC each lose one seat;
• NYC to "fully re-open" July 1, 2021;
• Covid-19 vaccine hesitancy; and, here; and, here; and, here;
• New jobs, April, 2021: analysts made biggest miss in 23 years; forecast one million + new jobs; came in at 266,000 new jobs;
• California loses population for first time in history;
  

Top national energy story:

• The Newsom announcement; and, here;
• $80-oil by the end of the year -- Goldman Sachs;
• WTI breaks through $64; later, $65;
• Vitol acquires 44,000 acres in the Permian;
• US electricity demand will reach pre-pandemic levels by July, 2021;
• oil companies reporting huge profits for first time in several quarters;

Top North Dakota non-energy story:

Top North Dakota energy story:

Geoff Simon's top North Dakota energy stories:

• Quick connects.

Operators:

• CLR ramping up Bakken operations;
• RimRock with eight new FBIR Johnson permits;
• Elvis has left the building;

Operations:

• Enerplus active on its "Igneous Rock" pad;

Wells:

• CLR has completed the Angus Federal wells;
• BR CCU Gopher wells fracked;
• MRO reports a huge Jonah USA well in the Sanish-Antelope;
• MRO reports a huge Three Forks second bench well, the Daniel USA well, in the Sanish-Antelope;
• MRO's huge Kolba USA well;
• Two huge MRO wells: the Thorson USA and the Pelarske USA; and, here;
• A BR Chuckwagon well back on line after being offline for almost a year;
• Two EOG Hawkeye wells updated;
• The Whiting Finsaas wells in Hay Creek seem to be producing nicely after a period of sporadic production;

Fracking:

Pipelines: 

• Operator / owner wants DAPL case to be heard by US Supreme Court.

Natural Gas:

• Oil-rich Bakken shale shows promise of natural gas growth despite fewer rigs;

Bakken economy:

Commentary: 

Flashback:

• One well, one millionaire;

Daily Breitbart Economic Note -- April 30, 2021

Breitbart Business Digest, April 29, 2021, 1Q21:

John F. Kennedy once said that "a rising tide lifts all boats." 

The aphorism was intended to express the idea that we all share a common interest in an improving economy. Now, however, it may be true in a more literal sense. NBC Connecticut reports that demand for boats is at unprecedented levels as Americans scramble to make summer plans in a country still inflicted with covid restrictions and mask requirements even as actual covid infections fall. 

In fact, demand is outpacing supply, and boat salesmen say they are having a hard time getting their hands on product for customers.

That's becoming widespread through the economy. Microchips are in short supply, and as a result, automakers are having trouble producing enough cars to meet demand. That's sent so many buyers into the used car market that recent vintage used cars are actually appreciating in value, with many models from the last five years worth more today than they were when they were two years newer. Demand for housing has outpaced supply, pushing up home prices even as sales volumes drop and sending builders scrambling to break ground. That, in turn, has caused a run on lumber, sending prices skyrocketing.

The last round of stimulus payments, arising from President Biden's $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan, pumped household incomes up a record 21.1 percent in March, the Commerce Department said Friday. While some of that money is finding its way into the hands of home sellers, boat marketers, and auto dealers, much of it is being saved. 

The savings rate jumped to 27.6 percent, the highest ever recorded apart from last April's lockdown and stimulus-induced record of 33.7 percent. Prepandemic, this tended to run around 7 percent.

The Fed's Jerome Powell has repeatedly assured us that any price rise from all this money sloshing around through the economy will be "transitory" and not lead to the kind of sustained high inflation that would trigger a sudden rate hike. 

On Friday, however, Richard Curtin—the venerable doyen of the University of Michigan's Survey of Consumers—raised doubts about that. 

"While temporary price hikes are anticipated, the robust increases in consumer demand will act to lengthen and heighten inflation above the modest increases now anticipated," Curtin wrote in his analysis of the better than expected rise in consumer sentiment in April.

The market seems convinced right now that Team Powell will be proven right, and so asset prices do not seem to reflect much inflation risk. That's likely a reflection of the fact that inflation has been so low for so long and that predictions of coming inflation have made fools of many prognosticators for at least two decades. 

But that also means that it's likely more investors will be caught without a life-preserver to keep them afloat if a rogue wave of inflation hits.

– Alex Marlow & John Carney
Breitbart News Network

Transportation: A 2021 Theme -- April 30, 2021

At the sidebar at the right, near the top, I track "Themes - 2021."

At the first post there, at the top is a link to "Investors."

And from there, well down the list:  

• Rail: link here.  

This story will be add at that site.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

From today's Wall Street Journal: rally in transportation stocks nears 122-year-old record streak. Gains underscore investors' expectations that rebounding economy will boost companies carrying goods, raw materials.

The Dow Jones Transportation Average on Friday notched a weekly advance of 1.4%—its 13th consecutive week of gains. That marks the index’s longest such streak since it rose for 15 straight weeks ended in January 1899.

The transportation average has gained 23% this year to record levels, beating the Dow Jones Industrial Average’s 11% climb to its own recent highs.

Some analysts say transports might still have some open road ahead, as passengers return and freight volumes increase. Adam Scheiner, industrials analyst at UBS Global Wealth Management, said his group expects railroads and airlines in particular to benefit from the return to normal activity.

From late last night, re-posting:

*******************************
Dow Transports

I think I heard today that "Dow Transports" hit an all time high. Whether it did or not, the DJTA chart is pretty amazing.

Years ago I subscribed to a financial newsletter called "Dow Theory." It's long-running thesis was this: if the Dow Transports confirmed the Dow Industrials (going up) it was going to be a bull market, or the bull market would continue. So, I learned to watch "Dow Transports," although to this day I have no idea if that theory holds water. 

Tonight, looking at US equity futures (over at CNN and CNBC) I noted the "pre-market movers" (up and down) over at CNN. 

And look at this: one of my favorite companies to follow, UNP is at the top of the list of movers. Whoo-hoo.

The 52-week high for UNP is $228, so if "that" holds, it will be quite a day tomorrow. It's been my experience that futures at 7:30 p.m. never reflect what's going to happen the next day, unless it's bad news. LOL.

I have found no story explaining why UNP might be surging (of course, the railroads are of more interest right now simply due to the KSC story) but there was this press release nine hours ago:

Union Pacific today announced that it is building a state-of-the-art grain transload facility within its Global IV intermodal terminal in Joliet, Illinois that will reduce supply-chain costs for agricultural producers and processors. The Union Pacific Global IV Transload facility will be managed by JCT, which is a 50/50 joint venture between Consolidated Grain and Barge Co. and Gavilon Grain, LLC.

Rigs Don't Matter -- Not To Be Taken Out Of Context -- April 30, 2021

Link here. This article is archived.

Natural gas processing plants in North Dakota are tracked here.

From the linked article:

Although oil production in most US shale basins is not expected to reach pre-coronavirus levels until at least late 2023, additional processing and higher gas-to-oil ratios might still lead to natural gas growth in the oil-rich Bakken.

Oneok increased its first-quarter natural gas and natural gas liquids volumes processed in the Williston Basin and plans to bring another 200 MMcf/d of processing capacity online before year-end, which will further reduce flaring in North Dakota.

Gas volumes processed in the Rocky Mountain region increased 5% while NGL raw feed throughput volumes grew 20%, the company reported in its first-quarter 2021 earnings call on April 28. This occurred despite winter storm production freeze-offs in February and lower year-over-year drilling activity in the region.

"The Williston Basin continues to surpass our expectations," Oneok CEO Terry Spencer said. "Our increased operations were not reliant on increased rig activity or commodity prices. Instead, it is based on DUC inventory, rising gas to oil ratios and increased ethane demand."

Oneok chief operations officer Kevin Burdick said: "There are 350 DUC wells on our dedicated acreage. With eight completion crews, there is no need for additional drilling or completion crews to maintain our volumes throughout the year. Any additional activity would provide upside."

With more than 200 MMcf/d of natural gas still being flared in the Bakken, according to the latest data by the North Dakota Industrial Commission, more volumes of gas can still be captured even if production stagnates for the foreseeable future, especially with wells demonstrating higher gas-to-oil ratios.

The company is moving forward with its 200 MMcf/d Bear Creek natural gas processing plant expansion and related infrastructure in the Williston Basin, which is slated for completion in the fourth quarter of 2021.

Notes From All Over; The Friday Late Afternoon Edition -- April 30, 2021

Vitol: largest independent, privately-held, energy trader in the world. Wiki entry.

• just bought 44,000 acres in the Permian from Hunt Oil Co.
• purchase price not disclosed
• earlier, Hunt said its acreage could command a price of $1 billion
• so, that's all we have to go on
• $1 billion / 44,000 acres = $23,000 / acre which seems to be in the ballpark for Permian mineral acres
• currently the Hunt acreage is producing about 1 boe per mineral acre.
• this is Vitol's first step into the USL48 = US lower 48 -- the continental US, excludes Hawaii (no oil) and Alaska (lots of oil but producing increasingly trivial amounts)
• I guess the L48 also excludes federal offshore production but I don't know;
• it just seems that all of a sudden the writers and analysts are using L48 as if it's a new term for them
• for me, the L48 is only applicable if reporting from Alaska
• from Hawaii: it's the mainland
• from NYC it's fly-over country (California isn't producing much oil any more)
• our very clever younger adult daughter would argue that "lower" 48 suggests there's an "upper" 48 somewhere?

Alaska: what great timing. Up above I noted that Alaska oil production is becoming increasingly trivial. Literally, less than 30 minutes after writing that, I come across this Rigzone article: 

Crude oil production in Alaska fell to about 500,000 bpd last year, the lowest level since 1976 and down 75% from the peak of 2 million bpd in 1988. [In fact, that 500,000 bopd may be an average rounded up; by the end of the year, I think production had fallen slightly below 400,000 bopd.]

Carbon capture projects, by country. Link here. Readers each get three guesses which country has the most carbon capture projects in the works, and the first two guesses, if wrong, don't count. Hint: the country is not China, Russia, Germany, Norway, Saudi Arabia, or Lichtenstein. 

*********************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$63.58	4/30/2021	04/30/2020	04/30/2019	04/30/2018	04/30/2017
Active Rigs	15	31	64	61	49

No new permits today.

Ten permits renewed:

• BR (5): two Shafer permits; two Sandie permits; and, one Ole permit, all in McKenzie County;
• Whiting (3): three Lacey permits in Mountrail County;
• Lime Rock Resources: one Robert Sadowsky permit in Dunn County;
• SHD Oil & Gas: one War Eagle permit in McLean County;

Yeah -- It's Gonna Take A Lot More Natural Gas -- April 30, 2021

Updates

May 5, 2021: this is really quite humorous. For the archives. 

On the day, New York states shuts down the Indian Point nuclear plant, the Biden administration floats the idea of subsidies for nuclear plants. LOL. 

Nuclear plants don't need subsidies: they need regulatory relief (which they will never get); and, acceptance by the general public (which they will never get, either). 

The Biden administration is talking to the Democrat base: unions, which would build the nuclear plants. 

But it will take ten years for the first spade of dirt to turn for a greenfield project even if there was a "shovel-ready" project on the books today. Anyone who thinks the natural gas industry feels threatened by nuclear energy is an idiot. 

Environmentalists who won't accept transmission lines through Vermont and won't accept buried pipelines to carry natural gas from Pennsylvania to New Jersey certainly aren't going to fall for that nuclear energy talk. LOL. Where would all that radioactive waste be buried? At sea? Which Japan favors.

May 3, 2021: Indian Point to shut down.  ISO NY link here. 

Original Post

See this note.

Now look at this.

Link here.

I assume it might take two "average-size" natural gas plants to replace this Indian Point Unit 3 nuclear power plant. 

I assume it might take eight "average-size" on-shore wind farms to replace this Indian Point Unit 3 nuclear power plant. 

I don't know. Just guessing. I'm "calculating" wind farms at providing 25% of their nameplate capacity. And that's assuming one can find an optimum wind location in upstate New York. But again, just a WAG.

Just For The Fun Of It -- Matching Google Satellite Map With NDIC GIS Map -- April 30, 2021

Look how accurate the google maps and the NDIC maps are. We'll get back to these maps later. 

See this post. 

Covid-19 Vaccine Hesitancy -- April 30, 2021

It looks like the trend is getting worse, more quickly, as each day goes on.

I posted yesterday's data, Thursday, April 29, 2021, just a couple of hours ago.

Now today's data, Friday, April 30, 2021, has been posted by the CDC.

And it's not a good look.

On March 26, 2021, the number of vaccinations given jumped to over 3 million doses for the first time ever on a "Friday" data report.

Every Friday after that, the numbers stayed well above 3 million. But look at today's "daily doses administered yesterday": the number clearly dropped below 3 million doses. 

Again, vaccines are now recommended for all Americans over the age of 16, and there is more than enough vaccine available. 

Reminder: Los Angeles announced today it was closing it's largest vaccine administration site -- the LA Dodger Stadium. This speaks volumes. 

My hunch why the CDC/Fauci are still recommending masking for everyone, including those vaccinated, is to continue to remind unvaccinated folks the importance of getting vaccinated. Fully vaccinated folks wearing masks makes no scientific sense. Unless "we're" not being told something else about the efficacy of the vaccines.

Link to CDC data.

		Total Doses Administered	Number of People Receiving At Least One Dose	Fully Vaccinated	Delta: Difference in daily doses from previous day
Friday	April 30, 2021	240,159,677	144,894,586	101,407,318	2,799,184
Friday	April 23, 2021	222,322,230	137,723,889	91,175,995	3,374,587
Friday	April 16, 2021	202,282,923	127,743,096	80,609,818	3,965,883
Friday	April 9, 2021	178,837,781	114,436,039	68,202,458	3,958,065
Friday	April 2, 2021	157,606,463	101,804,762	57,984,785	3,975,059
Friday	March 26, 2021	136,684,688	89,559,225	48,695,172	3,379,393
Friday	March 19, 2021	118,313,818	77,230,061	41,934,629	2,583,810

Believe It Or Not, "April Fools" -- April 30, 2021

Since it's unlikely I will be reporting on the US equity markets today, I need to have something to post.

How about this?

From a reader. 

Thank you.

****************************************
EVs

 

Updates

Later, 3:31 p.m. Central Time: this time, Joe Biden is correct; his DOE is wrong. Biden wants to spend $15 billion on public charging stations but the DOE estimates 80% of charging is done at home. And that's the problem: the DOE can't think outside the box.

Biden’s plan to spend $15 billion to help create 500,000 more public stations by 2030 is feeding the optimism, with investors flocking to EV charging companies since his election. The risk is that the early movers will get badly burned, potentially souring capital markets on the industry for years to come.

$15 billion over ten years is $1.5 billion year. The US population is about 300 million. That works out to $5/person/year -- and the DOE is balking. Oh, give me a break. Let's say $100,000 per charging station. $15 billion / $100,000 = 150,000 charging stations. 

Let's say 300 million registered vehicles in the country, but let's say only 200 million are privately owned vehicles. Forty percent are owned by folks who do not live in homes where they could have their own charging stations. That leaves 80 million vehicles. 

Eighty million vehicles / 150,000 charging stations = 500 vehicles per charging station. These are vehicles that would need to be charged at least once a week. So 500 vehicles competing for each charging station each week.

Original Post

 

Link here.This corroborates another survey reported earlier this month: twenty percent of Tesla / EV owners would not buy another EV. [That may change if gasoline hits $6/gallon in California this year. For the naysayers: if gasoline does not hit $6/gallon in California, it takes the wind out of that sail for "rationalizing" why one would buy an EV in the first place.]

I've said that from the beginning. Every day I'm reminded what a pain it is to re-charge my mobile devices: iPhone, laptops, tablets. I can't even imagine the hassle thinking about re-charging my vehicle on a daily basis, unless I had a personal charging station. 

[By the way, with reports of spontaneous battery fires, would you really wants to park your Tesla inside your garage attached to your multi-million-dollar home? But I digress.]

Anecdote. This was my not-ready-for-prime-time-e-mail reply regarding a couple of Tescla charging stations maps posted earlier: 

There was a backstory for posting those two maps.

We live in a pretty upscale apartment complex near the DFW airport (north Texas, Dallas-Ft Worth) now that we have moved.

There are maybe two or three Tesla owners here and one charging station on site.

I was speaking to a Tesla owner yesterday. He just moved to Texas in January. He moved from Reno, NV, probably in his late 50's -- very, very well off.

He moved to Texas to get away from west coast liberalism. Doesn't care for the weather in north Texs all that much but loves Texas in all other respects.

He was curious what I thought about "the hill country," Texas (Austin to San Antonio).

He is looking for interesting places to explore in Texas right now.

He said he made a mistake driving his Tesla from DFW to Austin last weekend -- he couldn't find Tesla charging stations along his intended route and had to make significant changes in his route plans.

He said Tesla was great for driving around town when one has charging station at home or on site (apartment complex) but he says Teslas are "no good' for cross country trips.

What struck me was that DFW to Austin is one of the busiest routes in the entire US. The "hill country" is a huge tourist destination for all Texans.

To hear that there was a paucity of charging stations in this area simply blew me away.

The range for my Honda Civic, full tank, can exceed 500 miles. Tesla range is about 350 miles, I assume. So, when traveling long distance, I stop fairly often to re-fuel; an average stop takes less than five minutes and service stations are everywhere. I never have to look for them.

So, taking that same trip with a Tesla would be a real hassle. If someone has that much trouble tethered to an EV between DFW and Austin (where Tesla is building a gigafactory) one can imagine how difficult it is in the rest of fly-over country.

Five Additional NDIC, May, 2021, Hearing Docket Cases; Consideration For A Huge CTB

This is unimportant in the big scheme of things.

NDIC just released a supplemental hearing for additional NDIC hearing docket cases for May, 2021.

For May 27, 2021, five additional cases:

• 28816, NDIC, confiscation of production-related equipment, Chola Sherwood Unit 6-1 well, file #4064, Renville County;
• 28817, NDIC, confiscation of production-related equipment, Chola Sherwood Unit 9-1 well, file #5073, Renville County;
• 28818, NDIC, confiscation of production-related equipment, Chola Sherwood Unit 9-2 well, file #6328, Renville County;
• 28819, NDIC, confiscation of production-related equipment, Chola Sherwood Unit 10-1 well, file #4058, Renville County;
• 28820, NDIC, confiscation of production-related equipment, Cramer 1 well, file #15002, Renville County;

These will be added to the May, 2021, summary posted here.  

******************************
Humongous

Also from the May, 2021, NDIC heading dockets. 

Can you imagine how big this complex is going to be? Including all the gathering pipelines.

Case No. 28804: 

Application of Hess Bakken Investments II, LLC pursuant to NDAC § 43-
02-03-88.1 for an order allowing vent gas produced from the EN-Johnson-
155-94- 2017H-1 (File No. 20162), EN-Johnson-155-94- 2017H-2 (File
No. 20164), EN-Johnson-155-94- 2017H-3 (File No. 20166), EN-Johnson-
155-94-2017H-4 (File No. 27099), EN-Johnson- 155-94-2017H-5 (File No.
27098), EN-Johnson- 155-94-2017H-6 (File No. 27097), EN-Johnson- 155-
94-2017H-7 (File No. 37707), EN-Johnson- 155-94-2017H-8 (File No.
37706), Sections 17 and 20, T.155N., R.94W., EN-Johnson A-155-94-
2932H-1 (File No. 20163), EN-Johnson A-155-94- 2932H-2 (File No.
20165), EN-Johnson A-155-94- 2932H-3 (File No. 20167), EN-Johnson A-
155-94- 2932H-5 (File No. 28251), EN-Johnson A- 155-94-2932H-6 (File
No. 37708), EN-Johnson A- 155-94-2932H-7 (File No. 37709), EN-Johnson
A- 155-94-2932H-8 (File No. 37710), EN-Johnson A- 155-94-
2932H-9 (File No. 37711), Sections 29 and 32, T.155N., R.94W., EN-Johnson
A-LE- 155-94-2932H-1 (File No. 37712), Sections 28, 29, 32 and
33, T.155N., R.94W., EN-Dakota N-155-94- 211609H-1 (File No. 22395),
EN-Dakota N-155-94- 211609H-2 (File No. 22394), EN-Dakota N-155-94-
211609H-3 (File No. 22393), EN-Dakota S-155-94- 211609H-4 (File No.
22396), EN-Dakota S-155-94- 211609H-5 (File No. 22397), EN-Dakota S-
155-94- 211609H-6 (File No. 22398), Sections 9, 16 and 21, T.155N.,
R.94W., EN-Jeffrey-155-94- 2215H-1 (File No. 22687), EN-Jeffrey-155-
94- 2215H-2 (File No. 22685), EN-Jeffrey-155-94- 2215H-3 (File No.
22683), EN-Jeffrey- 155-94-2215H-4 (File No. 28951), EN-Jeffrey- 155-94-
2215H-5 (File No. 28952), EN-Jeffrey- 155-94-2215H-6 (File No. 28953),
EN-Jeffrey- 155-94-2215H-7 (File No. 28954), EN-Jeffrey- 155-94-2215H-
8 (File No. 28955), EN-Jeffrey- 155-94-2215H-9 (File No. 28956), ENJ-effrey
A-155-94- 2734H-1 (File No. 22686), EN-Jeffrey A-155-94- 2734H-
2 (File No. 22684), EN-Jeffrey A-155-94- 2734H-3 (File No. 22682), EN-Jeffrey
A 155-94-2734H-4 (File No. 25923), EN-Jeffrey A 155-94-2734H-
5 (File No. 25924), EN-Jeffrey A- 155-94-2734H-6 (File No. 27571), EN-Jeffrey
A- 155-94-2734H-7 (File No. 27572), EN-Jeffrey A- 155-94-2734H-
8 (File No. 27573), EN-Jeffrey A- 155-94-2734H-9 (File No. 27574),
Sections 15, 22, 27 and 34, T.155N., R.94W., EN-Kiesel- 155-94-1918H-1
(File No. 29585), EN-Kiesel-155-94- 1918H-2 (File No. 19851), ENKiesel-
155-94-1918H-4 (File No. 29586), Sections 18 and 19, T.155N.,
R.94W., EN-Kiesel- LE-155-94-1918H-1 (File No. 30439), and EN-Kiesel-
LE-155-94-1917H-2 (File No. 30438), Sections 17, 18, 19 and 20, T.155N.,
R.94W., EN-Nelson- 155-94-2833H-6 (File No. 29188), EN-Nelson- 155-
94-2833H-7 (File No. 29187), EN-Nelson- 155-94-2833H-8 (File No.
29186), and EN-Nelson- 155-94-2833H-9 (File No. 29185), Sections 28
and 33, T.155N., R.94W., Mountrail County, ND, wells 

to be commingled in an existing CTB (CTB No. 220164-01) located in the SESW of Section
20, T.155N., R.94W., pursuant to NDAC § 43-02-03-48.1 or granting such
other and further relief as may be appropriate.

I lost count -- perhaps 50 wells?

This CTB is near this existing well:

• 37712, loc/drl, Hess, EN-Johnson A-LE-155-94-2932H-1, Alkali Creek, no production data, 

Graphics and maps pending. For now, the location is east of Lunds Landing, north of the river, just north of ND Highway 1804, directly south of White Earth, southeast of Ray, southwest of Ross. 

The google maps:

"Everyone Is Welcome" -- BRK -- Annual Shareholder Meeting -- Tomorrow, 12:30 P.M. ET, Saturday, May 1, 2021

Link here. 

Apparently this is the site for the live streaming.

*********************************
Warren Buffett Would Like To Add
More Natural Gas Power Plants In Texas

With more solar / wind, less natural gas, the renewable energy boom will result in more blackouts -- Forobes. Link here.

That link was provided by an essay in ZeroHedge: "the ugly truth about renewable power."

The good news: additional blackouts and rolling brownouts will result in a decrease of atmospheric CO2 all things being equal.

Of course, we won't actually see a decrease in atmospheric CO2 because all things are not equal, as we saw during the 2020 - 2021 pandemic-induced global lockdown. Even with the global economy coming to a screeching halt, atmospheric CO2 continued to increase, at about the same rate as previous years.

Cornucopia -- Reuters -- April 30, 2021

"Themes - 2021" are linked at the sidebar at the right. One of the 2021 themes:
the US: farmers to the world, cornucopia.

Today, we have this Reuters story: surging US crop prices reverse fortunes in rural Iowa. 

A surge to eight-year highs in U.S. corn and soybean prices is boosting farmers' incomes and their demand for land, tractors and tools. It is a turnaround for the agricultural sector after farmers struggled for years with a series of challenges: an oversupply of grain, former President Donald Trump's trade war with China and then the pandemic.

In western Iowa, where Arkfeld lives, the rise in farm income is helping to revitalize the rural economy, after a deadly flood in 2019 submerged fields and drove some growers out of business. Farm families are spending more at stores that sell clothing, grooming products and home improvement supplies, local businesses said.

Iowa's economy is particularly tied to agriculture as the state is the No. 1 U.S. producer of hogs and corn, as well as home to many seed and agricultural equipment dealerships.

One wonders to what extent slightly higher temperatures, "longer" summers," and slightly higher atmospheric CO2 levels are adding to the cornucopia along the northern tier of the US and along the southern tier of Canada?

Electricity Demand -- EIA -- Latest Data -- February, 2021

US electricity sales in megawatthours will be back to 2019 (pre-pandemic levels) by July, 2021.

• compare July, 2021, data with July, 2019, data when the July, 2021, data is released in September, 2021
  

Note: in a long note like this with lots of numbers, there will be typographical and content errors; if this is important to you, go to the source.

EIA data.

Sales of electricity to ultimate customers.

Annual:

• 2018: 3,859,185
• 2019: 3,811,150 (note the drop even before the pandemic)
  
• 2020: 3,663,741

Month/Year:

• January, 2019: 328,609
• January, 2020: 311,318 (a drop from a year earlier; lockdown did not being until after January 2020)
  
• January, 2021: 321,219 (already exceeds that of January, 2020, which, as noted, not yet in the pandemic lockdown)
  

Month/Year:

• February, 2019: 295,798
• February, 2020: 290,120
• February, 2021: 299,051 (exceeds February, 2019)
  

YTD (January - February of indicated year)

• 2019: 624,407
• 2020: 601,438 (the draconian lockdowns did not begin until March, 2020)
  
• 2021: 620,269 (very, very close to YTD / 2019)
  

Rolling 12 months ending in February:

• 2020: 3,788,182
• 2021: 3,682,572

****************************************
Duke Energy

The reason for posting the data above was a link to a story sent by a reader. [Later: Charles Kennedy over at OilPrice covered the same story. Sounds like he agrees. It will be interesting to see who comes closest: Charles Kennedy or me. LOL.]

From that article:

In a new interview Lynn Good — CEO of Duke Energy, one of the nation's largest utility companies — said the company remains hopeful about a rebound in electricity usage but doesn't expect a full recovery until next year (2022). 

The company experienced a notable decline in overall electricity usage during the pandemic, due to a drop-off among industrial and commercial customers hammered by the downturn before the new data was released. 

"We are optimistic about the rebound," Good says. "But we still believe it's going to take us until 2022 to get back to 2019 levels."

The article is unclear whether she was talking about the US in general, or Duke's situation.

Obviously, the EIA data suggests US electricity demand will easily be back to 2019 (pre-pandemic) levels by July, 2021, well before 2022, as much as a year earlier than what the Duke Energy CEO anticipates.

It appears that the Duke CEO was talking to his shareholders (or analysts) with regard to the region he serves, the mid-Atlantic region.

Vaccine Anxiety -- April 30, 2021

I started noticing this about ten days after CDC/Fauci's "JNJ pause" -- a drop in the number of vaccinations being given. I started posting that on the blog about April 23, though I forget the exact day. Over the past few days, the mainstream media is now reporting the same thing, and today, The Los Angeles Times also reported that numbers were dropping.

So, below, I've hidden all rows except "Thursday" data for the past ten weeks. The "rolling seven-day average" shows the same thing; I report that average on Tuesdays.

There was a huge jump from February 25, 2021, to March 4, 2021, and the number of vaccinations continued to rise through April 15, 2021 (with one slight decline reported on April 8, week-over-week).

The "CDC/Fauci JNJ pause" was announced April 13, 2021, which of course, came too soon to the April 15, 2021, date to affect that reporting period, which was data from April 14, 2021.

But then look what happened one week later, April 22, 2021:

• from: 3,525,204 vaccinations,
• to: 2,995,734 vaccinations,
• a drop of 15% in one week, ten days after the "safety" of the vaccine became the headline story
  
• making this more significant, more vaccine than ever has been delivered; supply exceeds demand; and, the guidelines now recommend the vaccine for everyone over the age of 16, not just high risk and "essential" personnel

If anything, vaccinations should be increasing significantly, not falling.

It is now generally "believed" that post-vaccination adverse / side effects are worse in folks who have a history of having actually had the "wild virus" infection.

Los Angeles has announced it is closing its largest vaccination site: LA Dodger stadium.

Vaccinations will pick up once sites open up to "walk-in, no reservation required."

		Total Doses Administered	Number of People Receiving At Least One Dose	Fully Vaccinated	Delta: Difference in daily doses from previous day
Thursday	April 29, 2021	237,360,493	143,793,565	99,668,945	2,721,079
Thursday	April 22, 2021	218,947,643	135,791,031	89,245,776	2,995,734
Thursday	April 15, 2021	198,317,040	125,822,868	78,498,290	3,525,204
Thursday	April 8, 2021	174,879,716	112,046,611	66,203,123	3,403,061
Thursday	April 1, 2021	153,631,404	99,565,311	56,089,614	3,358,112
Thursday	March 25, 2021	133,305,295	87,343,622	47,419,832	2,831,442
Thursday	March 18, 2021	115,730,008	75,495,716	40,981,464	2,692,381
Thursday	March 11, 2021	98,203,893	64,071,674	33,863,127	2,482,603
Thursday	March 4, 2021	82,774,284	54,201,638	27,829,503	2,233,810
Thursday	February 25, 2021	68,274,117	46,074,392	21,555,117	1,809,170