Wednesday, July 17, 2024

From The Atlantic -- July 17, 2024

Locator: 48173SERENE. 

Tag: assassination Trump

From The AtlanticLink here.

Posted without comment.

Unambiguous Faith

(Joseph Rushmore for The Atlantic)

View in browser

Lora Kelley: How has the assassination attempt shaped the mood of the RNC?

Mark Leibovich: People are definitely jarred by it. But now that a few days have passed since the shooting, there’s a sense of divine intervention, like Trump has been touched by God. This seems to have stoked an almost spiritual allegiance to him.

There’s an even greater sense of confidence I was hearing while interviewing a bunch of people earlier this week—senators, congressmen, delegates. There are a lot of reasons for them to feel confident based on the political realities on the ground. But the shooting added a new dimension to the collective faith that people have in Trump. This is clearly the party of Trump, and there is no sign of any resistance. Mostly, people are just here for a coronation.

On Monday, I overheard a guy saying that he went out to a drugstore and bought a bunch of gauze pads—like the one Trump was wearing on his ear Monday night—and that he was going to put some kind of logo on them and try to sell them or pass them out. By yesterday, I was seeing people wearing them—mostly plain gauze pads, but I saw a few with writing and logos on them. The merchandising wheels are in motion.

Lora: Is this a different type of RNC than the one you were anticipating before last Saturday?

Mark: The week so far has been spirited but also serene. At the RNC there’s usually much more of a siege mentality. There’s a big victim complex in this version of the Republican Party, this sense of We’re fighting long odds and everyone’s against us. But that feeling is not as strong now.

I was at Trump’s first convention, in 2016 in Cleveland, and a lot of the delegates I talked with this week were there too. At that point, Trump had not quelled the resistance to him at all. Ted Cruz gave this very defiant speech, and was basically booed throughout by the Trump supporters in the crowd.

The contrast to this week is really stark. Now we’re seeing an even more extreme level of falling in line than seemed possible. People were very happy to embrace J. D. Vance, too. That’s an extension of the unambiguous faith people seem to have in Trump.

Lora: What are attendees’ reactions to the name Joe Biden?

Mark: There’s not so much anger as head-shaking, almost a sense of pity. Biden is part of the good fortune Republicans feel right now. They don’t even seem to be bothering with the usual vilification. It’s more of a quiet vilification, almost as if they’re picking on a feeble target at this point.

I don’t want to understate the contempt people here have for the other side and for Biden—and for what losing could look and feel like. Who knows how Republicans would react to a surprise on Election Night? But that does not seem like the prevailing mood, at least so far—and that also may have to do with the shooting.

Lora: What are you seeing from Trump himself?

Mark: There were reports that Trump was thinking about changing the tone of the event to something more unifying and conciliatory, not the usual combative tone. I don’t know if that’s going to hold.

When Trump came out last night, he looked a little bit moved. He doesn’t usually look moved. It seemed to be a look of genuine—I would never say humble, but his face seemed quieter. His whole vibe seemed quieter. He seemed to still be a little bit shocked at what happened to him on Saturday. That would be a normal reaction.

Best Market Ever? July 17, 2024

Locator: 48172INV. 

Tag: Covid

Best market ever?

Yesterday:

 
Today:

Monday (link here):

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Meanwhile

Will a small, white envelope over the ear help ward off Covid?

Best Blog Ever When It Comes To Topical Blogging -- We Saw This Coming Yesterday -- July 17, 2024

Locator: 48171B.

From yesterday:

Saudi: for the archives. Nothing new. Nothing to see here. In round numbers, Saudi produces ten million bopd and exports 60%. Their budget requires / is based on $100-oil.

Today, link here:


From the linked article:

U.S. crude oil exports have been riding some nice tailwinds from Saudi Arabia’s July export cuts so far, likely further lowering U.S. crude inventory this month.
Bloomberg reported that Saudi Arabia’s overseas oil shipments dropped to a 10-month low in June, sitting at around 168 million bpd for the month (~5.6 million bpd).
According to Bloomberg, this figure is only 250,000 higher than the lowest point during the pandemic. HOLY MACKEREL.
Saudi Arabia isn’t the only major OPEC+ country that’s dialing back its crude exports this summer. According to HFI Research, Russian crude exports have fallen from 5 million bpd in June to below 4 million bpd so far in July. HOLY MACKEREL.

I guess twitter was renamed "X" for a reason; soon to be "XXX"?

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Yellow River

Link here.

Five New Permits; Five Permits Renewed; Ten DUCs Reported As Completed -- July 17, 2024

Locator: 48170B.

Headlines

Covid-19:

  • President Biden clearly states in BET interview, yesterday, July 16, 2024, he's ready to quit the race if he comes down with medical condition that his physicians tell him he cannot continue the race; that interview scheduled to aired this evening, July 17, 2024, at 10:00 p.m. EDT;
  • around 6:00 p.m. tonight, July 17, 2024, the White House reports that President Biden has tested positive for Covid 19; president to self-isolate in private quarters in Delaware; will complete necessary presidential duties from home;
  • President Biden seen struggling to get up last four steps into presidential jet earlier this evening;

 Save your tears:

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Energy

Weekly EIA petroleum report, link here:

  • refiners: 93.7%;
  • jet fuel supplied, up 0.7%;

Gasoline demand, link here:

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $83.36.

Active rigs: 38.

Five new permits, #40931 - #40935, inclusive:

  • Operators: Grayson Mill (4); Hess
  • Fields: Sixmile (Williams); Beaver Lodge (Williams)
  • Comments:
    • Hess has a permit for a BL-Herfindahl well, lot 1, section 30-156-95, 
      • to be sited 527 FNL and 491 FWL;
    • Grayson Mill has permits for four Falcon wells, NWNE/NENE 25-153-103; 
      • to be sited 322 FNL and between 1263 FEL and 1383 FEL

Approved for re-entry:

  • 17384, Mercury Resources LLC, Jean Baptiste 1-11H, 

Five permits renewed:

  • WPX: five Syw wells, NENW 22-149-91, Heart Butte, Dunn County;

Ten producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  • 39560, 1,171, Oasis, Hagen Federal 5792 43-31 2B,
  • 39562, 820, Oasis, Hagen Federal 5792 43-31 4B,
  • 39759, 1,337, EOG, Mandaree 119-1015H,
  • 39760, 836, EOG, Mandaree 21-1015H,
  • 40094, 778, Whiting, Sanish Bay W 5293 34-1 6B,
  • 40095, 392, Whiting, Sanish Bay W 5293 34-1 7T,
  • 40096, 619, Whiting, Sanish Bay W 5293 34-1 8B,
  • 40137, 1,285, CLR, Veigel 4-9H,
  • 40141, 2,143, CLR, Veigel 8-9H,
  • 40299, 908, Whiting, Sanish Bay E Federal 5292 31-6 3B,

Help Save GM's EV Division -- Buy An Overpriced 8-Cylinder Cadillac Escalade! -- July 17, 2024

Locator: 48169EVS.

See this page

At that post, I asked:

Why, oh why, oh why, if EVs are the future, why is Dan Neil reviewing the 2024 Chevrolet Colorado?

So, again, today, over at CNBC, they are reviewing and raving about the new 8-cylinder Cadillac Escalade! If this is the age of the EV, why are we still seeing reviews of ICEs? 

Because that's where GM and others are making their money, and pouring profits into their EV division where they are losing money. Just think: if you buy a Cadillac Escalade, you will pay an inflated price, but that additional cost will help keep the GM EV division afloat.

Earlier this week, GM's CEO Mary Barra said that Americans are not buying EVs to the extent the sector had predicted. And we were shocked!

Link here.

The Biden Administration -- Her Story Is Already Falling Apart -- July 17, 2024

Locator: 48168CONSPIRACY.

Tag: secret service assassination

Link here.

"Her"? Jill's friend.

Headline:

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The Book Page

Every day I read a few paragraphs from Robert Graves' The Greek Myths: Complete Edition. It is so incredibly entertaining. Today, I'm reading about the fifty daughters of Thespius and Heracles (Hercules). Hercules had fifty-one sons by the fifty daughters, over the period of fifty consecutive nights (one story has it all in one night). 

The fiftieth daughter, the fiftieth Thespian, escaped / declined his embraces, but Hercules and two other Thespians made up for that by two sets of twins. 

That one Thespian who avoided Heracles remained chaste and "to this day," the Thesbian princess standing vigilante at the shrine of Heracle at Thespiae must be chaste. 

Let's see if wiki corroborates that story. Good enough. LOL.

MSFT Selling Banned Nvidia Chips To Chinese -- That's What The Headline Implies -- May Not Be (Entirely) Accurate -- The Book Page -- July 17, 2024

Locator: 48167MSFT.

Tag: Amazon; Nvidia, chips MSFT Microsoft, Google

From Reuters today: this will get Trump fuming: 

It's kind of interesting. Except for some areas -- and very few, at that -- the "globalist" movement begun by Hillary and Bill was on the right track. Trump and JD Vance will likely set the "globalist" movement back by a decade but in the long run, one can't stop a train.

It is quite apparent that the majority of MAGA-cap wearers do not read books any more (if they ever did).

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The Small Screen Page 

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The Book Page


Prairie Man: The Struggle Between Sitting Bull and Indian Agent James Mclaughlin, Norma E. Matteoni, c. 2015.

Matteoni: longtime student of this subject, particularly, Sitting Bull; a legal scholar and a practicing lawyer. Has written a two-volume treatise on the Law of Eminent Domain in California. 

Matteoni, his home, apparently, is in Santa Clara county, California.

The Great Sioux Reservation, 1868 - 1889, was essentially the entire west one-half of South Dakota with a tiny toehold in south-central North Dakota.

When one read's the author's preface, it is amazing (and almost "criminal") that Kathlene DuVal did not mention Sitting Bull even once in her 2024 book, Native Nations. Link here. Link here. Link here.

I'm not sure how much note-taking I will take on this book. I may just read it for pleasure.

Grapevine, TX -- Just North Of DFW -- July 17, 2024

Locator: 48166GRAPEVINE.

Chart of the day: link here. Bidenomics.

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Grapevine, TX

Much of this is brand new -- last year or so.

Best to start with the one at the bottom and then work up to the top.

Walking from Starbucks to McDonald's to city library, morning of July 17, 2024.





Updating Wells That Came Off Confidential List In 3Q16 -- July 17, 2024

Locator: 48165B.

These wells came off confidential list 3Q2016. At that time, a fair number of wells did not report an initial production number. Those wells have all been updated.

The following were of interest to me for various reasons. Most interesting: to see new names having acquired some really, really good wells from some really exceptional first operators in the Bakken. These were the guys that took all the risks, paid huge money for the initial play. Nothing but respect for them. Huge challenges. Amazing what has been accomplished.

  • 30829, 1,221, XTO, TAT State Federal 14X-36A, Bear Creek, t7/17; cum 435K 12/19; cum 664K 5/24;
  • 30831, 963, XTO, TAT State Federal 14X-36B, Bear Creek, t7/17; cum 377K 12/19; cum 515K 5/24; 
  • 27349, 2,328, BR, Stafford 14-34TFH, Blue Buttes, t5/16; cum 347K 11/19; off line 12/19; cum 502K 5/24;
  • 32581, 1,836, Grayson Mill / Newfield, Jorgenson Federal 148-96-10-15-13H, Lost Bridge, t6/16; cum 54K 7/16; cum 460K 9/23; offline;  
  • 32151, 186, XTO, Johnson 31X-6HXE, Siverston, t11/16; cum 234K 12/19; 60 stages; 17 million lbs; stimulated 9/7/16; cum 320K 1/24; off line for last couple of months; 
  • 31597, 122, XTO, Johnson 31X-6D, Siverston, 40 stages; 7.7 million lbs, t11/16; cum 236K 12/19;  cum 300K 3/24; off line for last couple of months; 
  • 31609, 156, XTO, Johnson 31X-6G, Siverston, 40 stages; 7.3 million lbs, t11/16; cum 157K 12/19; cum 207K 5/24; 
  • 20087, 378, Enerplus, Hudson 13-21H, Mandaree, t3/17; cum 347K 12/19; cum 509K 5/24;  
  • 32305, SI/NC, XTO, Lund 41X-17H2, Siverston, t2/18; cum 179K 5/24; still F; 
  • 32015, TASC-->SI/NC-->5,156, MRO, Hal USA 34-34H, Reunion Bay, t8/18; cum 333K 5/24;
  • 32014, TASC-->SI/NC-->5,666, MRO, Jackie USA 34-34TFH, Reunion Bay, t8/18; cum 395K 5/24;   
  • 29857, 895,  Grayson Mill / Newfield, Jorgenson Federal 148-96-10-15-2HR, Lost Bridge, t6/16; cum 439K 5/24;  
  • 32013, TASC-->SI/NC-->5,550, MRO, Tony USA 24-34H, Reunion Bay, t8/18; cum 349K 5/24;  
  • 32012, TASC-->SI/NC-->7,151, MRO, Ranger USA 24-34TFH, Reunion Bay, t8/18; cum 434K 5/24; 
  • 32011, TASC--> SI/NC-->5,328, MRO, McMahon USA 14-34H, Reunion Bay, t8/18; cum 308K 5/24;
  • 29856, IA/1,000, Grayson Mill / Newfield, Jorgenson Federal 148-96-10-15-3H, Lost Bridge, t6/16; cum 105K 10/16; cum 464K 5/24;  
  • 32010, TASC-->drl--> SI/NC-->7,448, MRO, Colvin USA 14-34TFH, Reunion Bay, t7/18; cum 401K 5/24;
  • 27345, 2,262, BR, Stafford 13-34TFH, Blue Buttes, t6/16; cum 98K 10/16; cum 431K 5/24;  
  • 30783, 1,087, Enerplus / HRC, Fort Berthold 152-93-19D-18-12H, Four Bears, Three Forks, 56 stages, 4.8 million lbs; t1/16; cum 62K 5/16; cum 273K 5/24; 
  • 32004, 1,272, BR, CCU Zephyr 44-34 MBH, Corral Creek, t2/17; cum 298K 4/19; cum 596K 5/24; 

NASDAQ Will Plummet Today -- Led By Tech -- After Trump's Remarks -- Taiwan -- They're On Their Own -- July 17, 2024

Locator: 48164TRUMPMARKET.

Trump "blow-out" -- electoral college -- keep the rumors coming -- will scare the bejeezus out of the Dems as they go into the most boring DNC convention ever. And mega-donors have quit contributing. It's gonna get ugly.

New AP poll: two-thirds of Dems want Biden to drop out. Those two-thirds will not show up to vote for Biden in November. They may show up to vote for a state or local candidate, but they won't vote for Biden, and they won't vote for Trump. Turnout could be highest ever, and yet total votes for both candidates could hit historic low.  

Remember: Truman won (1948). Biden remembers that well (born 1942). He was six years old. He saw the Truman election in real-time, streaming on YouTube. He kept a copy of the Scranton Times.

***********************************
Tech - Taiwan - Trump? Tough Noogies

Intel -- an American company through and through -- should surge. After posting that, I checked ... and INTC is up 5% in pre-market trading. Wow. 

TSM in free-fall. Buying opportunity but I will let the dust settle before I buy more; I assume better bargains yet to come. Including AAPL. 

Trump: as far as he is concerned, Taiwan is on its own -- he's still miffed that "Taiwan" stole the US chip industry. Hell has not fury like a miffed Donald Trump.

The Dow is down, but not much on a percentage basis. We need the pullback -- no matter how bad -- for more buying opportunities -- 30-year horizon.

You know, when the market spikes the day before ... what did "you" expect?

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The Lake

Top Query Of The Day: Crooks Over At Twitter -- July 17, 2024

Locator: 48163MONKEYS.

Tag: assassination Crooks secret service conspiracy

Updates

Comment: I've been "doing" the blog since 2007 and I've seen untold number of "conspiracy theories" -- mostly from the MAGA crowd / far-right conservatives / Trump supporters -- and mostly on twitter .... an you know what? I don't recall one of those conspiracy theories that I've read, ever turning out to be true. It gets tedious. On another note, I get a lot of crackpot political notes that offer no actionable intel and are simply a waste of time.  

July 26, 2024: it's pretty definitive -- it was a bullet -- and no conspiracy. From The New York Times:

Original Post

Link here. [https://x.com/search?q=Crooks&src=trend_click&vertical=trends]

More fun than a barrel of monkeys.

Your $3 billion in taxes to fund the Secret Service at work:

 ******************************
Meanwhile



Best Story All Day -- Yesterday -- Elon Musk Moving To Texas -- Leaving California -- July 17, 2024

Locator: 48162CALIFORNIA.

Elon Musk:

  • personal domicile / state residence to Florida, no income tax;
  • SpaceX? Texas
  • X? Texas

It's such a great story, I may post it again, for a third time tomorrow. Now, where does "X" and SpaceX go? Houston area or DFW area? Could he move SpaceX closer to operations in south Texas? Doubtful. His engineers would prefer to live in the Big D or Houston.

Say what you want, that's a lot of money leaving California. 

The state was already in a death spiral with regard to businesses. To "solve" budget crisis -- actually 'kick the can down the road," the state will  pause some business tax credits to address a remaining revenue gap estimated at $56 billion over the next two years.

Wow, wow, wow. I knew it was bad but this is even worse than expected. The state is making huge cuts across the board and yet, after all those cuts, the "remaining revenue gap is still estimated to be $56 billion over the next two years.

The numbers are here. Full story here; wow, this is bad.

In round numbers, and I'm sure one can come up with any numbers one wants (my numbers could be way off; if this is important to you, go to the source):

  • budget deficit in 2023: $32 billion
  • this year, 2024: $50 billion (one data point does not make a trend, but in this case ...)
  • cuts in this year's budget to "kick the can down the road": $16 billion
  • budget just signed: $300 billion
    • includes bond issue for schools and climate: $20 billion 
  • "revenue gap" over next two years: $56 billion

No one wants to bring bad news to the governor, so I assume the estimate for the next two years is based on rosy revenue forecasts, and, of course, those forecasts were before Musk announced he was moving X and SpaceX out of California.

One assumes the rosy revenue gap was based on Californians voting "YES" on that $20 billion bond issue that works out to $500 to each Californian.

Under a Biden administration, Newsom could count on support from the federal government if push came to shove (issues of solvency); I'm not sure Trump would be so helpful.

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An Aside: Alternatives To Wiki

Wiki and google have their place when "searching."

But, for another look that might be more helpful for some issues, two other options:
Reddit: well known to many as a search engine for young folks;
X: this might be better than folks think

Suggestion: go to X and search "California budget."

Just a sampling:

Link here. Link here. Link here.



Germany -- Renewables -- Missiles -- July 17, 2024

Locator: 48161GERMANY.

Link here and link here

Renewables: Germany steps back

The missile-deal would likely not have occurred under a Trump administration. The Trump policy: let them fend for themselves, the Germans, the Ukrainians, the Taiwanese. Time to cut the deficit.

Hump Day? I Guess So, Wednesday -- July 17, 2024

Locator: 48160B.

Saudi: for the archives. Nothing new. Nothing to see here. In round numbers, Saudi produces ten million bopd and exports 60%. Their budget requires / is based on $100-oil.

Peak oil? Hardly. From Alex Kimani. Peak oil theory so yesterday.

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Back to the Bakken

WTI:

Thursday, July 18, 2024: 33 for the month; 33 for the quarter, 359 for the year
39893, conf, Hess, EN-Madisyn-LE-154-94-0705H-9,
39638, conf, Hess, TI-State-158-95-3635H-4,

Wednesday, July 17, 2024: 31 for the month; 31 for the quarter, 357 for the year
40405, conf, CLR, Chase 5-18H,

RBN Energy: will new crude export terminals spur another Permian pipeline?

For a few years now, crude oil shippers out of the Permian have enjoyed a surplus in pipeline takeaway capacity thanks to a slew of new pipes that came online just as COVID crushed demand, prices and production. But Permian production has recovered, and the takeaway situation is changing for some routes. For example, the pipelines from West Texas to Corpus Christi are running close to full, and if a new offshore export terminal gets built, Permian-to-Gulf-Coast takeaway dynamics would get far more complicated — and fast. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss highlights from our new Drill Down Report, which examines Permian crude flows to existing export terminals and the potential impacts of a new deepwater facility.