MRO To Report Four More Huge Wells In Reunion Bay -- January 12, 2021

I don't think I have ever seen a better string of wells being reported than what MRO has reported for the past two years in Reunion Bay. This is simply staggering. I may have to go back and review every MRO well. LOL. This is truly amazing, even for the Bakken. 

These wells were all reported earlier but they were officially released in the NDIC daily report today as "plugged or producing wells. Much more data regarding these wells at this post.

Four MRO wells plugged or producing, the L-O-T-V pad is tracked here:

• 36921, conf, MRO, Vickall USA 34-5TFH-2B, 33-061-04593, Reunion Bay,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
11-2020	45615	56518
10-2020	0	1

• 36922,, conf, Lang USA 41-8H, 33-061-4594, Reunion Bay,
  

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
11-2020	26539	28983
10-2020	63607	44020

• 36923, conf, Thorson USA 41-8TFH, 33-061-04595, Reunion Bay,
  

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
11-2020	47558	59299
10-2020	21282	18886

• 37323, conf, Oscar Thorson USA 41-8TFH-2B, 33-061-04659, Reunion Bay,
  

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
11-2020	676	0
10-2020	49194	43525

GM Launches Brightdrop; Toyota Halts Production In China -- January 12, 2021

Commercial electric vans will be delivered to FedEx by the end of the year.

****************************
Reason #34 Why I Love To Blog

It was pure happenstance that I started to "follow" semiconductors. I became very, very interested when Apple announced the M1 chip. 

From there, the story snowballed.

Within weeks, we learned, and reported on the blog, that there were indications of a growing global shortage of chips.

Tonight we learn that Toyota has halted production in China due to a global semiconductor shortage. From the report, "there have been warning signs about this for month."

*********************************
The Sports Page

I never cared for Nick Saban, although of course there was no basis for that. Just pure (and inappropriate) emotion on my part.

I'm watching the game tonight, a replay of last night's game. 

Based on what sportscasters were saying about him tonight I have an incredible amount of respect for him. I'll leave it at that. 

***********************************

This might only make sense to those who watch "First Take" religiously. LOL. 

It's Only Getting Worse -- "Never See Snow Again" -- January 20, 2021

From Bloomberg: cold, calm Arctic weather set to rattle Europe energy markets ... and it's on its way to the American midwest. 

Europe is girding for an extended blast of freezing conditions with temperatures set to drop below zero in many parts by the end of this week.

A sub-zero blast that has already blanketed Madrid in a rare snowfall is set to worsen with a weather phenomenon known as a sudden stratospheric warming. The event can disrupt the polar vortex, the winds that usually keep cold air contained in the far north, and allow freezing weather to head south.

It threatens a re-run of “the beast from the east” of two years ago, when a deadly Siberian cold blast lashed Europe, forcing evacuations, stranding trains and snarling traffic. It couldn’t come at a worse time for the region’s heating and power systems, with calm conditions expected to stifle Europe’s wind generation and nuclear plant outages adding to the strain from the cold.

Chilly conditions in Europe January 17-22, 2021, will push the number of heating degree days for that period 11% above the 10-year average.

The measure of when temperatures are below a level needed to warm buildings is expected to climb to 92 days next week, compared to a 10-year seasonal average of 82.7.

****************************
South Dakota Attorney General

No new news in the past four weeks. Link here.

Slawson With Three New Permits; MRO To Report Three Huge Wells -- January 12, 2021

WTI: up almost 2% today; up $1.04 today; trading at $53.29. 

Active rigs:

$53.29	1/12/2021	01/12/2020	01/12/2019	01/12/2018	01/12/2017
Active Rigs	11	55	67	56	36

Three new permits, #38075 - #38077, inclusive:

• Operator: Slawson
• Field: Big Bend
• Comments: Slawson has permits for three new wells, see below;
  

New permits:

• 38075, conf, Slawson, Muskrat Federal 6-28-33TFH, Big Bend, NENE 28-151-92, 325 FNL 1130 FEL,
• 38076, conf, Slawson, Muskrat Federal 7-28-33TFH, Big Bend, NENE 28-151-92, 325 FNL 1080 FEL,
• 38077, conf, Slawson, Vagabond Federal 1SLH, Big Bend, NENE 28-151-92, 325 FNL 1030 FEL, 

The Slawson Muskrat Federal wells are tracked here. 

Twelve permits renewed:

• XTO (7): two Satter permits; five Wolf(f) Federal permits, all in McKenzie County;
• MRO (2): two State Willard permits in Dunn County;
• Resource Energy Can-Am (2) a Ranger permit and an Olaf permit, both in Divide County;
• Nine Point Energy: one Novak permit in McKenzie County

Four MRO wells plugged or producing (see more data for these wells here):

• 36921, MRO, Vickall USA 34-5TFH-2B, 33-061-04593, Reunion Bay,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
11-2020	45615	56518
10-2020	0	1

• 36922, MRO, Lang USA 41-8H, 33-061-4594, Reunion Bay,
  

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
11-2020	26539	28983
10-2020	63607	44020

• 36923, MRO, Thorson USA 41-8TFH, 33-061-04595, Reunion Bay,
  

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
11-2020	47558	59299
10-2020	21282	18886

• 37323, MRO, Oscar Thorson USA 41-8TFH-2B, 33-061-04659, Reunion Bay,
  

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
11-2020	676	0
10-2020	49194	43525

The Permian Highway Pipeline -- KMI -- Operational -- January 12, 2021

An old story, S&P Global Platts reported this January 4, 2021. This is now being a "thing" on twitter -- "the Permian Basin has gained an outlet for associated gas." 

From Platts: "Permian Highway enters services, brightening gas market outlook for Texas. "

From the linked article, data points:

• Kinder Morgan: Permian Highway Pipeline
• entered service January 1, 2021
• KMI's second major takeaway project from West Texas
• two billion cubic feet/day project; runway for production growth
• new capacity to support Permian prices beyond winter
• Premium Gulf Coast pull supply eastbound

EIA's STEO Released -- January 12, 2021

Link here.

• IHS Markit: GDP will increase by 4.2% in 2021; 3.8% in 2022;
• rising GDP contributes to EIA's forecast of rising total energy use in the US
• after falling by 7.8% in 2020, EIA forecasts that total US energy consumption will rise by 2.6% in 2021 and 2.5% in 2022, reaching 97.3 quadrillion BTUs, 3.0 quads less than in2019;
• EIA forecasts Brent crude to average $53/bbl in both 2021 and 2022 (that is bad, bad news for Saudi Arabia);
• Brent averaged $42/bbl in 2020

Much, much more at the link. "Focus on Fracking" will like touch on the report this next week. 

**********************************
It Will Be Interesting To See How This Plays Out

Link here. EU dependent on fossil fuel taxes. What happens when fossil fuels phased out?

WTI Breaches $53 -- Whoo-Hoo! -- January 12, 2021

NDIC: active rigs up and running:

$53.02	1/12/2021	01/12/2020	01/12/2019	01/12/2018	01/12/2017
Active Rigs	10	55	67	56	36

Rig	Operator	Well Name and Number	Current Location	County	File No	API	Start Date	** Next Location
H & P 515	PETRO-HUNT, L.L.C.	HAGEN 144-98-12C-1- 1H	NENW 13-144N-98W	BIL	36077	33007019170000	12/30/2020	Undetermined
CYCLONE 38	CONTINENTAL RESOURCES, INC.	Gale 8-32H1	NWNE 32-147N-96W	DUN	37399	33025040080000	1/6/2021	Undetermined
NABORS B27	WPX ENERGY WILLISTON, LLC	Dakota 1-36HY	SWSE 1-149N-93W	DUN	37832	33025040830000	1/7/2021	Undetermined
NABORS B6	BURLINGTON RESOURCES OIL & GAS COMPANY LP	F JORGENSON 1D MBH	SESW 11-151N-97W	MCK	37480	33053093720000	1/9/2021	Undetermined
NABORS x10	MARATHON OIL COMPANY	Black USA 11-35H	SWNE 34-152N-94W	MCK	37610	33053094390000	1/8/2021	Bullseye
UNIT 414	SLAWSON EXPLORATION COMPANY, INC.	STALLION 3-1-12H	LOT3 1-151N-93W	MTL	36125	33061044220000	1/3/2020	Undetermined
H & P 492	MARATHON OIL COMPANY	Etherington USA 34-31TFH	SWSE 31-151N-93W	MTL	37675	33061047650000	1/8/2021	Undetermined
H & P 259	MARATHON OIL COMPANY	Watterberg USA 41-5TFH	LOT4 4-150N-93W	MTL	37787	33061047980000	1/5/2021	Undetermined
NABORS X28	HESS BAKKEN INVESTMENTS II, LLC	BL-A IVERSON- 155-96-1312H-8	NWNE 24-155N-96W	WIL	36770	33105052780000	12/26/2020	Undetermined
NABORS B13	OASIS PETROLEUM NORTH AMERICA LLC	Cliff Federal 5300 43-35 5B	SWSE 35-153N-100W	WIL	37266	33105053960000	1/6/2021	Undetermined

Spain: Incomprehensible Cold -- January 12, 2021

Link here.

EIA STEO Scheduled To Be Released Today -- January 12, 2021

EIA STEO scheduled to be released today.  The short-term energy outlook is released on the first Tuesday after the first Thursday of each month. Release time: generally between 12:00 p.m. (noon) and 12:15 p.m. EDT (summer) and EST (winter). Link here. At that link, click on the PDF icon at the top of the page.

This note from last night, link here:

Asia -- "Never See Snow Again" -- January 12, 2021

Updates

January 14, 2021: could this turn into a humanitarian crisis?

Original Post

They saw this coming four weeks ago -- back on December 18, 2020: electricity prices jump as winter chill hits Japan. Link here. Electricity prices surged to 59 cents/kilowatt hour -- thirty of thirty-three nuclear reactors off line and prices of LNG skyrocketing.

Fears of Japan blackouts as power prices hit record highs! Cold snap and low LNG supplies leave portions of electricity system with little capacity. Wow, these advanced nations are looking more and more like third-world countries now that they've turned to renewable energy. But I guess that's the price to be paid to save the earth. Link here to Financial Times.

Japanese electricity prices have soared to all-time highs as a cold snap coincides with tight supplies of liquefied natural gas to raise fears of blackouts in parts of the country.

Power companies begged their customers to leave the heating on but turn off other appliances as the electricity system hit 99 per cent of its maximum capacity in western parts of the country on Tuesday. 

The spike in energy prices comes just two months before the tenth anniversary of the Fukushima disaster — the aftermath of which pushed Japan into a radical rethink of its energy mix away from nuclear power — and two months after it announced an ambitious plan to become carbon neutral by 2050.

Warnings of potential blackouts come with just three of Japan’s 33 nuclear reactors in operation, leading experts to predict that the current crisis could add an urgency and strength to government efforts to accelerate the restart programme. 

A week of unusually severe weather has dumped more than a metre of snow on parts of the country and prompted many households, which are working from home because of Covid-19, to turn up the heating.

Japan scrambles! Link here. 

LNG Asian benchmark: link here. 

Freezing in Asia: link here. 

How's that coal phase-out working out for Japan? Link here. 

Apple: January 12, 2021

Updates

January 14, 2021: did anyone else catch this? Bloomberg: missing chips snarl car production at factories worldwide:

After first wiping out auto demand, the virus is now hindering parts supply: chips used in vehicles are harder to come by because semiconductor manufacturers allocated more capacity to meet soaring demand from consumer-electronics makers such as Apple Inc.

January 13, 2021: Now this: global iPhone shipments up 10% in 2020 compared to previous year. Apple bucked a trend as falling global smartphone shipments in 2020 by increasing its shipment rate by over 10% copared to the previous year. 

Global smartphone shipments suffered an overall 8.8% decline to 1.24 billion units last year, due in part to the crippling effects of the health crisis.

Despite that, however, worldwide shipments of 5G-enabled smartphones reached as high as 280-300 million units in 2020, up from the 20 million units shipped a year earlier, indicating a surge in demand for the faster data speed.

In the first quarter of 2020, global shipments "dove over 20% on year in the first quarter of 2020, fell by a double-digit rate in the second, and narrowed the decline to a single digit in the third, before staging a single-digit rebound in the fourth," according to the DigiTimes' figures.

Samsung and Huawei felt the impact worst over the course of the year, both seeing their shipments dip by a double-digit rate. Out of the top six smartphone brands in 2020, only Apple and Xiaomi managed to ramp up their shipments compared to 2019.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

 Original Post

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

The Street, four hours ago. Link here. 

From the linked Street article:

• evidence continues to mount that Apple likely had a killer fiscal first quarter (Oct - Dec 2020)
• Mac: unusually high demand throughout the pandemic year and holiday season should be no different
• if so, iPhone and Mac will deliver a 'one-two punch on earning day
• IDC says Apple shipments should be "on fire"
• Mac shipments skyrocketed, to the tune of nearly 50%
• Apple's market share increased to 8.0% from 6.8% in the previous holiday; no other manufacturer experienced growth at these levels
• Apple may have benefited from the introduction of the M1-equipped models (previously posted)
• again, no "whisper numbers"
  

Whisper numbers: no one seems willing to post whisper numbers. This is the best I've found:

Analysts will be keen to see if the quarter will beat the record-breaking 1Q20 quarter, which saw revenue of $91.8 billion stemming from extremely strong iPhone 11 sales. There is some uncertainty surrounding whether or not Apple will set another revenue record, given much of 2020 was affected by the Covid-19 pandemic, which affected both Apple's production and sales.

Flashback: 1Q20 -- AAPL: best quarter ever. Shares surge. One year ago: $4.99 / undiluted share. 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Exceeded: iPhone 12 sales in China hit nearly 18 million units in 4Q20; exceeded all expectations: link here.

16% increase: Apple shipped 16% more PCs in 2020: link here.

Mad Mac! Mac shipments rise significantly inQ20 amid overall PC market growth: link here.  

To the best of my knowledge Apple never / rarely "misses" when earnings are announced.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

No Wells Coming Off Confidential List Today -- January 12, 2021

I'm following several stories. Several posts in the past few days and updates later today:

• huge reversal on Covid from NY governor Cuomo;
• Florida and Covid
• energy crisis in Japan;
  
• freezing weather in China; 
• LNG surge in Asia;
• incomprehensible cold in Spain;
  
• Apple;
• semiconductor chips;

Fired! Philadelphia Eagles fire the coach.  

Is NDIC embargoing list of active rigs? Third day site is down.

********************************
Apple

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Exceeded: iPhone 12 sales in China hit nearly 18 million units in 4Q20; exceeded all expectations: link here.

16% increase: Apple shipped 16% more PCs in 2020: link here.

Mad Mac! Mac shipments rise significantly inQ20 amid overall PC market growth: link here.

*********************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

• still unable to access; have no idea what this is all about; map shows 12 active rigs;
• does NDIC have an embargo on active rigs list?
  
• WTI: $52.72

No wells coming off confidential list today.

RBN Energy: refiners cut CAPX and signal shift toward renewables.

In the spring of 2020, as the COVID-19 crisis started hitting the energy sector hard, many refiners made the tough decision to dramatically cut back capital spending plans and operating costs for the year in order to weather the storm. While these cuts were swift and sizeable, they were not absolute — they couldn’t be, given that refining is a capital-intensive industry with complex assets that require seemingly constant maintenance, equipment swap-outs, and upgrades. And then there’s the added pressure that refiners also need to invest in keeping their facilities in compliance with changing environmental rules, and to consider the overall impact of investments in new, “greener” fuels, such as renewable diesel, that may help them improve their profitability going forward. Today, we look at refiner capital spending in the context of recent history and highlights some of the growth projects being pursued in the sector.

From a capital spending perspective, refiners are very different animals than exploration and production companies (E&Ps). Sure, both sectors of the energy industry require a lot of capital, but while E&Ps’ capex can ramp way up or way down year-to-year, reflecting shifts in hydrocarbon supply, demand, and (mostly) pricing, refiners’ spending tends to be more consistent over time. Why? Refiners focus primarily on maintaining existing assets and on making the incremental enhancements needed to refine new grades of crude, to expand refining capacity, and to comply with new environmental regulations.