Finally, Someone Writing What We All Know Is True -- April 22, 2021

My hunch: John Kemp is constrained in what he can write because he is writing for Reuters. 

Irina Slav is writing what most of us think. 

On another note, I thought this was a joke but it's being reported in multiple places. The US is running short of "used cooking oil," or rather "waste oil." Source: Valero. 

This is going to keep me up all night. 

At the start of the pandemic, when gasoline demand in the United States tanked, several refiners took that time of slack demand to retool their refineries to process used cooking oil—instead of crude oil. At a time when demand was soft, those sizable federal and state incentives looked pretty enticing. 

Of course, many of those projects could take years. 

Even without those projects coming online, that feedstock is in such high demand that the United States is “close to being tapped out right now”, Martin Parish, senior vice president of alternative fuels at Valero said on its Q1 earnings call on Thursday, April 22, 2021.

Notes From All Over -- The Early Evening Edition -- April 22, 2021

GDP Now, 1Q21, link here:

• latest estimate, April 16, 2021: 8.3%
• next estimate: Monday, April 26, 2021

Goldman Sachs: much lower estimate but it appears Goldman Sach is suggesting that "8%+ GDP" will just take a bit longer to show up, link here:

• current consensus, 1Q21: 5.4%; range as high as 7.5%; no estimates as high as 8.3%
• consensus, 2Q21: 8.1%; range as high as 10.5%; 
• by mid-terms (2022), GDP growth significantly reduced;  

The market today: it was doing great until Biden spoke. This reminds me of the Obama administration. Every time the market was doing very well, it crashed after Obama spoke. 

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Back to the Bakken

BR's Renegade wells in Sand Creek have been updated.

Western North Dakota:

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Urban Saga

Some millennial fathers are so busy now they actually schedule dinner dates with their school children. I'm not talking about divorced parents; I'm talking about married couples. 

And when they go out to eat, invariably the father is on his smart phone -- okay, let's be honest here -- his iPhone. Do millennials that schedule dinner time with their children like they schedule "calls" all day long use any phones other than iPhones?

But I digress.

Yes, the distracted parents. The parents that are so concerned about screen time.

From The Atlantic three  years ago:

The Dangers of Distracted Parenting. When it comes to children’s development, parents should worry less about kids’ screen time—and more about their own.

I didn't read the article. I was distracted by Suzi Quatro on YouTube. 

Speaking of which.

We recently moved to a new apartment. It's been a long time since I've been this happy with a new place to live. May and I now have a sit-down dinner every evening. I pretty much do all the cooking. I certainly do all the [dish] washing, etc. 

There are a lot of articles out there about the benefits of meditation. Washing dishes, for me, is my way of meditating. I love doing dishes. May and I have never used a dishwasher in our lives except to store pots and pans. 

With the move, we also discontinued all cable television. We have internet and wi-fi only. We are using this time to decide which "television" package we want. If left up to me, I wouldn't get television. It's been about a month now and I don't miss television at all. 

Having said that, the "deals" out there are incredible once you "cut" the Spectrum "thing." 

It is truly amazing. 

So now I'm watching the most incredible resolution on the biggest Apple desktop computer available -- and now Apple is coming out with an even "better" desktop computers -- the new ones are 11 millimeters thick -- that's one millimeter more than a centimeter. There are 2.54 centimeters in an inch.

But we're looking at our television options. As noted earlier, if up to me, I wouldn't go back to television. But May has some favorite shows -- so that will probably determine which "streaming" service we will go with. May will likely go with Hulu. I have to admit the YouTube package looks pretty good.

So, we'll see.

Dinner tonight was delayed until 9:15 p.m. May took Olivia to her soccer game. Olivia plays on two different "club" teams as well as the high school soccer team, which took third in the state this year. 

For the club teams, she plays with one team that is "her age" team and for one team that is a year ahead of her ("playing up" as they say).

In the game tonight, her team won, 2 - 1. After the game it was noted that her "other" team was playing the next game. May asked if Olivia would be playing that game also. Nope. Apparently some rule that club team players can only play one game per day. The reason Olivia was asked to play the game she did, other than the second game? The game she played, according to her coach, was a must-win game and for a must-win game the coach wants Olivia. 

Okay. I guess I've rambled enough. I still can't believe how crisp the resolution is on this huge Apple computer screen. I can only imagine what Olivia will be watching when she's my age.

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Modified Spatchcock Chicken

Modified? Instead of removing the backbone, I just left it in; a whole easier. 

A Closer Look At A WPX Blue Racer Well In Squaw Creek -- April 22, 2021

The WPX Blue Racer wells are tracked here. These are just incredible wells. This well produced 333,000 bbls of oil in less than a year.

The well:

• 36506, drl,-->drl/A->AL/A, WPX, Blue Racer 14-11HG, Squaw Creek, first production, 3/20; t--; cum 92K 5/20; extrapolates to 40,074 bbls over 30 days; next mont100h (4/20), 44K over 30 days; cum 333K 2/21; test date, 3/15/2020; a middle Bakken well.

From the file report:

• located 1/2 mile southeast of Mandaree in McKenzie County;
• target: 13' from the top of the middle Bakken;
• 100% of the lateral was drilled within the 38' middle Bakken target zone;
• curve section began on December 28, 2019, and completed the same day;
• the lateral was begun on December 30, 2019, and completed on January 2, 2020; three days max;

FracFocus:

• fracked 2/20/2020 - 3/2/2020; 5.2 million gallons of water; 83.5% water by mass;

Full production profile:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	2-2021	21	7677	7678	5729	22953	19719	2307
BAKKEN	1-2021	31	16153	16196	6313	48300	39966	6444
BAKKEN	12-2020	31	19938	19854	6211	43203	40909	0
BAKKEN	11-2020	30	26496	26560	7752	35093	32102	0
BAKKEN	10-2020	31	23005	22958	12145	33438	30820	0
BAKKEN	9-2020	30	36417	36399	14394	44356	39864	440
BAKKEN	8-2020	23	30389	30551	9492	38097	34731	0
BAKKEN	7-2020	31	45798	45706	13482	55783	50260	460
BAKKEN	6-2020	30	39711	39894	15705	59578	55173	0
BAKKEN	5-2020	6	8901	8663	7016	10835	9431	426
BAKKEN	4-2020	30	43590	43607	17918	59355	54533	0
BAKKEN	3-2020	26	34731	34555	19413	42302	13542	24910

Earth Day Nearly Coming To An End For Another Year -- April 22, 2021

Consumers paying ever more for energy, and yet there's a glut. 

Link here. 

No New Permits; Active Rig Count Remains At Sixteen -- The Mid-Afternoon Editiion

Natural gas fill rate, link here, back above the five-year average. Except to have something to do, one almost wonders why we track this:

NOG: 1Q21 earnings - to be released May 7, 2021, before the market opens.

That Amazon union vote again: a Bloomberg op-ed. 

Talking with folks who have been members of a union, every time the union went on strike, it took up to two years to get back to where they were prior to the strike. The big winners in a union: the union management. 

Traders look for any reason to take a profit: the president makes a speech about something that won't happen for months, if not years, if ever (increasing taxes on capital gains), and if it does, will effect big earners only -- and the Dow drops 200 points. All I see is another buying opportunity.

Sixteen Tons, Tennessee Ernie Ford

ATT:

• Ma Bell is back! Huge 1Q21 earnings report; all eyes on HBO subscribers.
  
• link here, WSJ;
• posted gains in wireless and media divisions
• "piled on" more cellphone users, fiber-optic internet customers and HBO viewers
• 44.2 million domestic HBO and HBO Max subscribers, up from 41.5 million previous quarter (4Q20);
• added 595,000 postpaid phoen subscribers -- a highly valued category of customers
• also posted a net gain of 207,000 prepaid phone subscribers
  
• 5G spending boosted overall debt (as expected)
• but look at this:
• Verizon reported a net loss of 178,000 postpaid phone connections;
• T-Mobile is expected to report its first-quarter results next month;
  
• shares jumped 5% to $31.66
• net income: $1.04/share up from 63 cents a year earlier;
• total revenue rose 2.7% to $43.9 billion;
• 5G bandwidth purchases:
• Verizon: $45.5 billion
• ATT: $23.4 billion
  
• link here, MarketWatch;
• EPS, adjusted, 86 cents/share on revenue of $43.9 billion
• consensus: 78 cents in adjusted EPS and $42.7 billion in revenue
  

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$61.64	4/22/2021	04/22/2020	04/22/2019	04/22/2018	04/22/2017
Active Rigs	16	29	62	59	49

No new permits.

One certainly gets the feeling that operators have "shut down" awaiting the outcome of the DAPL.

Notes From All Over -- The Early Morning Market Edition -- April 22, 2021

Wow, with regard to the blog, when it rains, it pours. So much information coming out today, Thursday, Earth Day, April 22, 2021.

Gasoline in Las Vegas: hard to find? Link here.  

Chevron spokesman Tyler Kruzich said that the shortage at several of its valley gas pumps began over the weekend. 

“We are working to resupply those stations as soon as possible,” Kruzich said. 

The company said that with travel and capacity restrictions lifted, the West Coast has seen increases in fuel demand “that may outpace the available supply at times during the month.

Earth Day:

• Coal, earth day: the key driver of the expected rise in emissions is coal, for which demand is set to grow by 4.5% this year, surpassing its 2019 level and approaching its all-time peak from 2014. Source: IEA.
• oil demand to peak in 2026 -- Rystad;
• wind: Germany expects too little interest in next wind power auction; cuts capacity;

US equity markets: there must be 135+ companies reporting earnings today. I am only interested in one.

• UNP: lags 1Q21 earnings and revenue estimates;
• EPS: $2.00 vs $2.06 expected; $2.15 a year ago; 1Q20 was before the pandemic meltdown
• revenue: $5 billion missed; the estimate by 0.7%; year-ago: $5.23 billion;
  

Dividend increases: I mentioned this earlier this week. We're going to start seeing some nice dividend announcements. And yesterday, we saw some:

• ANTH: increased to $1.13, from 95 cents;
• KMI: increased but just barely, from 26.2 cents to 27 cents, I believe (I need to recheck)
• PSXP: increased to 87.5 cents according to the linked site, but another source doesn't reflect that;
• at $3.50 annual dividend, PSXP is paying 10.11%
  

PSXP:

• PSX (Phillips 66) due to report April 30, 2021, before market open; forecast, a $1.40 loss;
  
• SeekingAlpha, February 25, 2021: PSXP may seek merger or other transaction including take-private deal; another SeekingAlpha article here;
• analyst: says filing suggests Phillips 66 is "preparing to take PSXP private ex-DAPL and thereby limits the upside to PSXP units anything but a "best-case" litigation outcome"
• merging PSXP and PSX would be a logical road-to-take
• "everything" hinges on outcome of DAPL decision;

DFS: story on earnings must have been written by a robot; template, fill in the blanks:

Discover came out with quarterly earnings of $5.04 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.88 per share. This compares to loss of $0.25 per share a year ago.
These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items.

This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of 75%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this credit card issuer and lender would post earnings of $2.37 per share when it actually produced earnings of $2.59, delivering a surprise of 9.28%.

Over the last four quarters, the company has surpassed consensus EPS estimates three times.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

Chipotle: same customer experience as McDonald's; truly amazing; customers want the product; they don't want the experience;

• reported previously: McDonald's bottom line improved significantly when in-restaurant dining was eliminated
• less staff required; much less attention required for maintaining bathroom cleanliness:
• one wonders if staff could be cut in half if in-restaurant dining eliminated?
• from $15/hour to $0/hour
  
• child play area closed: no cleaning expenses
• the Chipotle experience and the McDonald's experience suggests customers prefer the food but not inside the restaurant
• eliminates seniors (like me) from spending all day in McDonald's drinking inexpensive coffee:
• eliminates the teenagers and homeless folks from hanging around;
• it will be interesting to see how fast these restaurants open their doors again;

Earth Day -- April 22, 2021

Graphics sent by a reader. I was aware of the data in the second graph; only recently have I been blogging about the data in the first graphic.

From the reader who sent me these two graphics:

Here's my #2 ranked CO2 table, from Fred Singer about 20 years ago.  

The late Singer is probably the CO2/sunshine-and-breezes-fraudsters-most-hated scientist right up there with Dr Richard Lintzen, who was the first to explain how ethanol consumed more energy than it produced (not counting the near toxic cattle feed byproduct). 

It took years for that to become common knowledge. Another ten years, and a $trillion of wind, solar and battery storage, that hoax will also be "common knowledge, except in liberal minds where there are a lot of strange things bouncing around..

Notes From All Over -- The Salmagundi Edition -- Enerplus Reports A Very Nice Mandaree Well -- April 22, 2021

Jobless claims: unexpected; huge decline.

US transportation:

• gasoline demand: at 93% pre-pandemic levels;
• diesel at 100% pre-pandemic levels;
• source? Valero

Apple, Inc: first to reach $2 trillion; which two companies will be next? 
what to know about Apple's recently announced new hardware -- Joanna Stern in WSJ;
after opening in the "red" this morning, turned "green" by 10:00 a.m. CDT;

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

Fast and furious:

• Coal, earth day: the key driver of the expected rise in emissions is coal, for which demand is set to grow by 4.5% this year, surpassing its 2019 level and approaching its all-time peak from 2014. Source: IEA.
• oil demand to peak in 2026 -- Rystad;
• US cancels all 2Q21 oil, gas lease sales;
• wind: Germany expects too little interest in next wind power auction; cuts capacity;
  

US equity markets:

• making biggest moves pre-market;
• Ma Bell is back!
• link here, WSJ;
• link here, MarketWatch;
• dividends: five best value dividend stocks -- Warren Buffett; and, here;
• profit-taking today; intra-day yesterday (?);
• UNP to report TAS today;
• TAS: transfer agent system; communicates the earnings to all shareholders of record;KMI: posts blowout profit on Texas winter storm; whoo-hoo!
• DFS: story on earnings must have been written by a robot;
• Chipotle: same customer experience as McDonald's; truly amazing; customers want the product; they don't want the experience;
• F: prolongs shutdowns; chip shortage; will affect the F-150; WSJ;
• American Airlines: it's not over until the fat lady sings -- AAL posts a $1.25 billion loss; will delay buying new jets; burned through $27 million each day in 1Q20;
• down from $30 million/day in 4Q20 -- call me naive, but I don't see a lot of difference between $27 million /day and $30 million / day -- and they say drilling a Bakken well is expensive; oh, give me a break;
• rest of story: can't make a purse out of sow's ear, as they say in some parts of the country
  

Oldest profession:

• legalized in NYC; WSJ;
• quotes: Camille Paglia;
• provocations: Camille Paglia;

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$61.09	4/22/2021	04/22/2020	04/22/2019	04/22/2018	04/22/2017
Active Rigs	16	29	62	59	49

One well coming off the confidential list --Thursday, April 22, 2021: 18 for the month, 18 for the quarter, 99 for the year:

• 35800, F/A, Enerplus, Frost 149-93-07A-12H-TF-LL, Mandaree, first production, 11/20; t--; cum 109K 2/21;

RBN Energy: renewable natural gas and its possible role in hydrogen production. Excuse me while I laugh. 

We’ve been writing on hydrogen for a few months now, covering everything from its physical properties to production methods and economics. Given the newness of the subject to most folks, who have spent their careers following traditional hydrocarbon markets, we have attempted to move methodically when it comes to hydrogen. However, we think that things may get more complicated in the months ahead. 

Why, you may ask. 

Well, the development of a hydrogen market — or “economy”, if you will — is going to be far from straightforward, we believe. Not only will hydrogen need some serious policy and regulatory help to gain a footing, the new fuel will have to become well-integrated into not only existing hydrocarbon markets, but also some established “green” markets, such as renewable natural gas, or RNG. So understanding how renewable natural gas is produced and valued is probably relevant for hydrogen market observers. In today’s blog, we take a look at the possible intersection of natural gas, particularly RNG, and hydrogen.