Three Wells On The MRO Chauncey-Winona Pad Yet To Report -- April27, 2021

Three wells yet to report on the MRO Chauncey-Winona pad.

• 36222, drl-->drl/NC-->conf, MRO, Morsette USA11-2H, first production, 1/21; t--; cum 100K 2/21;
• 36223, drl-->drl/NC-->conf, MRO, Sherman USA 21-2TFH, first production, 1/21; t--; cum 130K 2/21;
• 36224, drl-->drl/NC-->conf, MRO, Valarie USA 21-2H, first production, 12/20; t--; cum 130K 2/21;
  

This is an incredible pad. Initial production for the three wells that have not reported yet:

36222:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
2-2021	46110	60113
1-2021	58056	46567
12-2020	64	0

36223:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
2-2021	52556	67549
1-2021	57891	58189
12-2020	27599	17679

36224:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
2-2021	36724	54920
1-2021	57971	52016
12-2020	34354	21900

Weekly Petroleum Report -- April 27, 2021

Today's data was the API data, link here; tomorrow, the EIA data. 

Again, Julianne Geiger says it was a "surprise." LOL. It's always a surprise.

Today's surprise: "US oil inventories rose beyond expectations." That's an understatement.

API reported an extensive build in crude oil:

• a build of 4.319 million bbls;
• forecast: 659,000 bbls
• yes, I would say that was quite a surprise.

We'll see what the EIA reports tomorrow; that link is here. 

API reports that even as oil inventories rose substantially, US oil production held steady at 11. million bpd. Pretty remarkable. So, either imports or less demand.

Deere John -- Canada And North Dakota -- April 27, 2021

These headlines just warm the cockles of my heart. 

Two words: Deere John. 

Canada's canola planted area is expected to rise this year for the first time since 2017 with farmers encouraged by soaring export prices amid strong oilseeds demand. Link here to social media. Link to the source article here. 

Another word: China. 

Other headlines related to canola:

• North Dakota farmers optimistic amid challenges; one month ago, KX News
• pollinators on the decline in North Dakota; one day ago, KX News
• tight soy supplies good for canola, four days ago, The Western Producer
• nervous North Dakota farmers are set to "seed in faith" ... record-breaking dryness in North Dakota, two weeks ago, Reuters

MRO Reports Another Huge Well In The Sanish-Antelope -- April 27, 2021

Record IPs in the Bakken: tracked here. 

The Jonah USA well is on the MRO Chauncy-Winona pad and is tracked here.

The well:

• 37089, drl/A, MRO, Jonah USA 11-2H, Sanish-Antelope, first production, 1/21; t--; cum 101K in less than two months; 33-053-09248; 52,960 bbls over 17 days extrapolates to 93,459 bbls of crude oil over 30 days, and, of course, there's a bit of natural gas, also.

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
SANISH	2-2021	27	52306	52147	22546	71870	68076	3624
SANISH	1-2021	17	52960	52503	18639	48605	40526	7967
SANISH	12-2020	5	175	171	193	726	0	716

The geologist's report is yet to be scanned in. Spacing unit: 1280 acres. 

FracFocus:

• fracked 11/22/20 - 12/3/20;
• 8 million gallons of water;
• 45.1% fresh water by mass;
• 38.7% produced water by mass;

I've been told daughter wells don't do as well as parent wells in the Bakken.

Memo to self: look up the parent well.

This Is Another Second Bench Three Forks Well -- April 27, 2021

Record IPs in the Bakken: tracked here.

The Daniel USA well is on the MRO Chauncy-Winona pad and is tracked here.

The well:

• 36221, drl/A, MRO, Daniel USA 11-2TFH-2B, Sanish-Antelope, first production, 1/21; t--; cum 122K in less than two months; 33-053-08982; 84,000 bbls over 25 days extrapolates to 100,806 bbls of crude oil over 30 days, and, of course, there's a bit of natural gas, also.
  

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
SANISH	2-2021	26	37780	38063	20542	51002	48236	2646
SANISH	1-2021	25	84005	83278	50812	121157	91845	29058
SANISH	12-2020	2	188	184	426	1195	0	1185

The geologist's report is yet to be scanned in. Spacing unit: 1280 acres. 

FracFocus:

• fracked 11/22/20 - 12/2/20;
• 8 million gallons of water;
• 52.7% fresh water by mass;
• 30.9% produced water by mass;

The Market Notes Continue -- April 27, 2021

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

OKE: Zacks here and press release here.

• earnings beat estimates;
• EPS: 86 cents/share vs 79 cents forecast;
• one year ago: earning of 83 cents; that was the last quarter before the Covid lockdowns began;
• shares have appreciated 30% since the beginning of the year compared to the S&P 500's gain of 125;
• company raises guidance;
• increases the diluted EPS midpoint to $3.02
• pays 7.4%; P/E: 36
  
• but look at this -- if I'm reading / reporting this correctly, this almost boggles the mind; look at CAPEX:
• three months ended March 31, 2021: $177 million
• three months ended March 31, 2020: $950 million
• this caught my attention because I've talked about this before;

Earnings reports scheduled for tomorrow, Wednesday, April 28, 2021, of the 265 scheduled a few interest me; I hold shares in only four of the following:

• AAPL: after market close;
• YUM:
• F:
• BA (Boeing):
• CLR:
• NSC:
• HES:
• FB:
• QCOM:
• Ovintiv:

Notes From All Over -- Early Evening Edition -- April 27, 2021

Natural gas: EU admits it can't "go net-zero" without natural gas. Link here.

Let's assume he's telling the truth: what is he saying? Link here. 

News we won't see on ABC Nightly News tonight: Germany sees it as the coldest April in 104 years; the second coldest since 1881; and the snowiest since 1986. Link here. 

And AMD? I haven't read the report yet but AMD was down 0.23% during the day and after hours it surged 3.85%, up $3.28; trading just below $90. That speaks volumes. Before looking at the AMD report, what did XLNX do? Whoo-hoo! XLNX popped after hours, up 3.4%, up $4.50; and trading at $138. So, let's go back to AMD. Don't you just love the phrase "smashes first-quarter estimates"? LOL. Link here. And on top of that, "guided higher."

• adjusted EPS: 52 cents vs 44 cents
• sales: $3.45 billion vs $3.21 billion forecast;
• y/y: earnings "rocketed" 189% and sales almost doubled;
• with Apple's M1 / M2 chip, and now AMD/XLNX, one really has to take another look at Intel
• also, Texas Instruments posted better-than-expected results; reporting today, also;

MSFT: apparently the earnings report was superb, but the stock closed flat and then, after hours, dropped 2.5%, dropped almost $7; trading at $255. Same thing could happen to AAPL tomorrow.

MRO With Two New Permits; WTI Flirts With $63 At The Close -- April 27, 2021

Captain Obvious: I haven't read the article yet. I just saw the headline. Reminder: I recently said that California's decision to ban fracking and eventually end all oil production in the state was political theater and entirely irrelevant.  

Let's see what Tsvetana Paraskova has to say; again I have not read the article yet; let's read it together. 

• first of all, it's a fairly long article;
• she agrees: the ban on fracking will have little impact on US oil production, or even on California production, apparently;
• then a bunch of stuff we already know
• then this: California's average price of regular gasoline, at $4.00 / gallon on April 26, 2021, is the highest in the United States;
• California was the third-largest US state by refining capacity in early 2020, but more than half of the crude oil was supplied by Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Ecuador, and Colombia;
• California is the second largest consumer of petroleum products among all US states;
• California accounts for ten percent of the US total petroleum products consumed;
• and then the article ends, simply saying, a total ban on oil production in California would simply result in lost jobs and increased dependence on production from foreign countries (not from the US)

WTI: up today; on news that OPEC won't open the spigots; Saudi Arabia will stay the course.

*************************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$62.94	4/27/2021	04/27/2020	04/27/2019	04/27/2018	04/27/2017
Active Rigs	16	30	64	62	48

Two new permits, #38277 - #38278, inclusive:

• Operator: MRO
• Field: Werner (Dunn County)
  
• Comments:
• MRO has two new permits in Werner oil field, NWNE 27-146-92,
• Kisse will be sited 883 FNL 1568 FEL; and,
• Videlius will be sited 883 FNL 1608 FEL

Three permits renewed:

• NP Resources: three Elkhorn Ranch Federal permits, all in Billings County;

Four producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 36221, drl/A, MRO, Daniel USA 11-2TFH-2B, Sanish-Antelope, astonishing / staggering results: see this post;
  
• 36357, drl/A, Slawson, Gunslinger Federal 9-12-1TFH, Sand Creek, no production data,
  
• 36360, drl/A, Slawson, Gunslinger Federal 10-12-1TFH, Sand Creek, no production data,
• 37089, drl/A, MRO, Jonah USA 11-2H,Sanish-Antelope; a huge well; see this post;
  

"Fauci, We Have A Problem" -- April 27, 2021

Continuing a theme we started about the time Dr Fauci "paused" the JNJ vaccine. 

CDC data linked here. 

In the spreadsheet below, I've hidden all rows except "Tuesday." Again, this probably reflects the number of vaccinations given on Monday, again, depending on how fast local and state health departments report their numbers.

Note column "D": the number of vaccinations given in the previous 24 hours. This is one of the lowest numbers reported on a Tuesday going back six weeks.

And remember, starting last/this week, vaccines are now available to everyone over the age of sixteen. We should be seeing "blow-out" numbers. 

The US is able to administer nearly four million doses in a 24-hour period based on previous and current data. This past Monday/Tuesday? Less than 1.7 million doses. 

This may have nothing to do with the "JNJ vaccine pause" but it sure makes me wonder. 

By the way, the greatest number of vaccinations for a Tuesday were given on April 13, 2021. That was the date the US government "shut down" the JNJ vaccine so "it could be studied." Four days later, the government was ready to re-instate the vaccine, but wait another full week. We've discussed that previously.

		Doses of vaccine distributed to health facilities	Change from day before	Vaccinations given	Change from day before	Percent of distributed vaccine that is actually administered
Tuesday	April 27, 2021	297,543,635	6,851,630	232,407,669	1,639,215	78.11%
Tuesday	April 20, 2021	272,030,795	7,525,070	213,388,238	1,806,929	78.44%
Tuesday	April 13, 2021	245,364,805	7,568,500	192,282,781	2,590,736	78.37%
Tuesday	April 6, 2021	219,194,215	11,302,820	168,592,075	1,404,280	76.91%
Tuesday	March 30, 2021	189,451,285	8,804,720	147,602,345	1,789,510	77.91%
Tuesday	March 9, 2021	123,232,775	6,854,160	93,692,598	1,602,746	76.03%
Tuesday	March 2, 2021	102,353,940	5,951,450	78,631,601	1,731,614	76.82%

The Coming US Natural Gas Boom -- Rystad -- April 27, 2021

This story was posted last week but the original source document was not linked. This comes from Rystad, April 22, 2021.

The report begins:

Natural gas production in the US is set to grow to a new record in 2022, at 93.3 billion cubic feet per day (Bcfd) and will continue to rise further, exceeding 100 Bcfd in 2024, a Rystad Energy analysis shows. As a result, the performance of the country’s key gas basins is going to attract increased interest from investors and markets, with CO2 emissions intensity, capital efficiency and potential bottlenecks drawing close scrutiny.

The country’s output reached a record in 2019, at 92.1 Bcfd, but production declined subsequently to 90.8 Bcfd in 2020 as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic. Rystad Energy expects that 2021 volumes will fall even further, to 89.7 Bcfd but the trend will quickly change as the effect of the pandemic subsides and activity builds up across the country’s major gas basins.

Rystad Energy’s analysis reveals that the Appalachian Basin was US’ best-in-class in 2020 when it comes to CO2 emissions intensity, and the region is set to report a record-high capital efficiency in 2021, as reinvestment to maintain output will drop to its lowest ever. Meanwhile, the Haynesville play will offer the largest gas output growth going forward, risking bottlenecks unless more pipelines are approved.

The graphic:

US Markets -- Early Morning -- April 27, 2021

Mid-Day Market

CDC: fully vaccinated folks don't need to wear masks outdoors. Does that include garden parties?

Of interest:

• WTI: looking good. OPEC holds production quotas.  
• COP: up 1% 
• CVX: flat to up slightly; 
• XOM: up half a percent;  
• OKE: up slightly; basically flat 
• ENB: surprisingly, up about 1%: 
• EPD: flat, down slightly; 
• MNRL: down about half a percent 
• DFS: continues to surge; after several great days, up another 1.2%;
• My favorites: 
• UNP: up half a percent; 
• SRE: down about a third of a percent; a-$124-stock now trading at $136 
• WMB: maintains dividend; pays just slightly less than 7%. 

Original Post

Wheat futures in Chicago touch highest since 2013. 

Consumer confidence:

• better than expected
• 121.7 vs 113 forecast
• highest in fourteen months
  

Blow-out earnings and blow-out margins:

• the re-opening trade;
• the re-opening is just getting started

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

The US markets.

UPS:

• jumps into record territory after big profit and revenue beats; and,
• here at The WSJ;
• sales jump 27% to $23 billion; supply-chain and freight segment up 34%

BP:

• profits soar; this is quite a story; link here;
• commits to share buybacks after 1Q21 earnings double; link here;
  
• when earnings season is all over it will be interesting to see how XOM did compared to the rest;
• story: XOM failed to take advantage of "trading;" 

TESLA:

• reports record earnings; previously posted; this is The WSJ story;
• TSLA: down almost 4% in early trading today
  

AMD: reports after market closes later today.

Others of interest:

• XLNX: green, but barely;
• UNP: up slightly;
• AAPL: flat, actually down one penny today;
• DFS: up about half a percent;
• MNRL: up 1.53% -- whoo-hoo!

GE:

• does anyone care any more?
• another bad quarter: hit by slump in aviation business; well, duh;
• profit and free cash flow beats estimates (the bar must have been set low) but revenue fell shy;

A Closer Look At The MRO Kolbo USA Well -- 220K In 3.5 Months -- April 27, 2021

The well:

• 36918, F/A, MRO, Kolbo USA 34-5H, 33-061-04590, Reunion Bay, first production 10/20; t--; cum 219K 2/21; fracked 9/30/20 - 10/14/20; 10.8 million gallons of water; 66% fresh water by mass; 18% produced water by mass; new data not yet scanned in at NDIC; 54,049 over 20 days extrapolates to 81,074 bbls crude oil over 30 days;
  

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	2-2021	19	33762	33987	19323	47035	44861	1979
BAKKEN	1-2021	31	70051	69719	42646	98921	94970	3630
BAKKEN	12-2020	28	43615	43873	34374	57226	54626	0
BAKKEN	11-2020	20	54049	54102	67042	67815	64625	0
BAKKEN	10-2020	7	17778	16949	27894	17695	14901	1764

Two parent wells in the drilling unit show a halo effect, though not marked:

• 21630, 1,378, MRO, Waltom USA 43-8TFH, Reunion Bay, t9/12; cum 434K 2/21;
• production, 11/19: 1,978 bbls
• production, 1/21: 5,3136bbls
• 18693, 560, MRO, Betty Shobe USA 41-8H, Reunion Bay, t9/10; cum 353K 2/21;
• production, 12/18: 1,561 bbls
• production, 2/21: 5,496 bbls

MRO Reports A Huge Well In Reunion Bay -- April 27, 2021

NDIC hearing dockets for May, 2021: not yet announced, although NDIC has posted a few hearings for early May but these are all continuation cases; 

WTI: up temporarily due to transitory event in Mideast overnight. 

***************************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$62.45	4/27/2021	04/27/2020	04/27/2019	04/27/2018	04/27/2017
Active Rigs	16	30	64	62	48

One well coming off confidential list -- Tuesday, April 27, 2021: 22 for the month, 22 for the quarter, 103 for the year:

• 36918, F/A, MRO, Kolbo USA 34-5H, 33-061-04590, Reunion Bay, first production 10/20; t--; cum 219K 2/21; see this note for more data;
  

RBN Energy: propane markets writhe due to supply/demand uncertainty.

So far in April, there was an unexpected run-up in propane prices early in the month, followed by a 21% swoon in the past 15 days of trading. The forward curve suggests smooth sailing from now through next winter season, but that seems unlikely, given recent market developments.

Propane inventories, which are supposed to be building this time of year, actually fell last week, putting stocks at 16.9 MMbbl below this point in 2020, according to EIA statistics released last week. The data also showed that weekly exports spiked to the second-highest peak of all time at 1.7 MMb/d, while production declined two out of the past three weeks.

And just over the horizon, there’s the potential for a big increase in Chinese propane demand as new petrochemical plant capacity comes online over the next three years. Today, we look at how these issues are likely to shape the propane market over the next few months and suggest that you consider attending our upcoming virtual conference, where we will pose these questions to industry leaders from production, midstream, exports, and retail market segments.

If you don’t follow U.S. propane prices on a regular basis, Figure 1 will catch you up with the recent twists and turns. Before the meltdown in April 2020, the Mont Belvieu propane price was averaging about 40 c/gal, then dropped to 25 c/gal during the COVID crash. But in very short order the price was back up to 50 c/gal all through last summer, before taking off like an Elon Musk rocket in January 2021. The price bounced around in the 90s c/gal range, spiking up to $1/gal during the February Deep Freeze. This month, however, propane prices have come back to earth, standing at only 78.3 c/gal as of yesterday. 

Will the price of propane continue to fall? Well, the ICE forward curve says no (dashed red line in Figure 1). It’s flat as a board out through February 2022, averaging 76 c/gal, more than 30% above the 2020 price level for the same months in the prior year.