Fracking And Water: Flowback, Produced -- February 6, 2020

A reader -- much more knowledgeable than I am regarding all of this -- corrected one of my earlier notes regarding "water." The reader notes that there is a difference between flowback (water) and produced water, but the reader explains much more.

This explains so much -- an incredible note and much appreciated. 

The reader wrote:

There is a major distinction regarding the flowback/produced water situation. 

Prior to the introduction of HVFRs (high viscosity friction reducers) about three (3) years ago, operators "opened the chokes" in the early week or two after fracturing to remove the bulk of the frac fluid.

One big reason for doing so was to minimize the 'skin', aka the 'gumming up' of the fractures due to the guar - or other thickening agents - which was needed to transport the proppant. 

When these polymers - HVFRs - were introduced, proppant transport was enhanced with several other follow on consequences (re-using frac fluid being one).

One big effect  was no 'skin/gumming' occurred and higher formation pressure (via injection of millions of gallons of water) could be sustained indefinitely. 

This is one reason early hydrocarbon production is so high and stays - relatively - high ... along with the now labelled produced water.

Historically, produced water increases each month. The observed decrease in recent wells produced water is further indication that this is almost all frac fluid.

This pertains to the "water" mentioned at this post. 

Idle Chatter Regarding an Oasis Well In Baker Oil Field -- February 6, 2020

This is a very, very typical well in Tier 1 Bakken wells.

The IP is nothing particularly noteworthy (see record IPs here) and the monthly production is not all that remarkable compared to many Bakken wells in Tier 1 locations.

But look at that cumulative production. There are many wells drilled back in the early days of the boom (2008 - 2012) that still haven't hit 100,000 bbls. This one has produced more than 100,000 bbls of crude oil in less than four months of production.

And, again, this is a well that doesn't get my attention. I see these results day in and day out looking at wells now being reported (yes, there is a lot of water (see this note); and much natural gas is being flared). Also note how "small" the frack was -- only 6 million lbs:

• 30188, 1,569, Oasis, Lewis Federal 5300 11-31 2B, 40 stages; 6 million lbs; Baker, t8/19; cum 109K 12/19; 

Full production data:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	12-2019	31	19599	19726	18037	26816	13442	13157
BAKKEN	11-2019	26	28524	28403	24036	30934	23707	7045
BAKKEN	10-2019	30	19417	19553	23199	19162	15185	3767
BAKKEN	9-2019	30	24250	24243	31653	22472	20897	1365
BAKKEN	8-2019	18	17671	17446	23356	17196	16685	385

The Baker oil field is tracked here, though it has not been updated in quite some time. If I have time, I will update it later tonight.

Baker oil field, immediately south of Williston, across the river:

Missouri River Runoff -- 2019 Runoff Could Set Record; Surpass 2011 Record; Water Shortage? What Water Shortage? -- October 22, 2019

From The Bismarck Tribune:

• in 2011: "a historic runoff"; flooding hit Bismarck-Mandan area
• this past year: record-setting rainfall and historic early October blizzard
• global warming? what global warming?
• but look at this: runoff forecast:
• 61 million acre feet
• more than 2.5 x the average of 25.3 million acre feet
• the highest in 121 years
• September, 2019: wettest on record for North Dakota
• August and September came within 1/20 of an inch of breaking the 1900 record
• October runoff? expected to be about 3 x the average (which is more than 2.5 x)
• keep on worrying about global warming, Occasional Cortex

We've Been Through This Before -- The Bakken Has Plenty Of Water. The Permian? No Problem -- Rigzone -- January 22, 2019

From Rigzone: frack water demand in the US skyrockets.

While U.S. shale oil production is hitting record levels, Rystad has found that frac water demand has more than doubled since 2016. The demand in the Permian alone currently exceeds all of U.S. demand of 2016.

The future for frack water demand also looks positive, with Rystad predicting demand to grow by an additional 6 percent in 2019 [inconsequential]. The Permian will see demand surpass 2.5 billion barrels by 2020.

"Even with such steep growth, market concerns about sourcing challenges and bottlenecks appear to be minimal.”

Rystad noted strong growth for the water treatment market in 2018, with a 28 percent expansion to 1.4 billion barrels last year. The market is forecast to double 2016 totals by 2020.

Note: the amount of water used in the Bakken has remained relatively stable for several years.

WAWSA Celebrates Its Five-Year Anniversary -- October 23, 2016

From The [Crosby] Journal:

Many rural families in Divide County are now served by the Western Area Water Supply Project (WAWSP), which will have the capacity to serve as many as 125,000 people by 2038.

WAWSP celebrates its fifth anniversary this year with approximately 1,200 miles of pipeline installed.

The project is managed by the Western Area Water Supply Authority (WAWSA), which has another 650 miles of pipeline planned.

“Every day we are getting more users connected and getting more water infrastructure built,” says Jaret Wirtz, WAWSA’s executive director.

WAWSP, which is a public-private partnership, delivers water to Columbus, Crosby, Fortuna, Noonan, Ray, Ross, Stanley, Tioga, Watford City, Wildrose and Williston.

The partnership also serves rural residents throughout Burke, Divide, McKenzie, Mountrail and Williams Counties.

The authority takes water from the Missouri River and treats it at the Williston Regional Water Treatment Plant. The Williston plant serves as the primary supplier; the R & T Water Treatment Plant near Ray offers a supplemental supply source.

WAWSA has increased the Williston plant’s capacity to 21 million gallons per day and has built and/or upgraded two water towers, 10 reservoirs and 10 pump stations. The authority plans to construct and upgrade an additional tower, as well as four more pump stations and one more reservoir.

I remember folks discussing this project/authority when it was first proposed many years ago. 

Back To The Water Issue In The Bakken -- It's Still Not An Issue -- Those Working Outdoors In The Mud Tend To Use More Water Than Office Workers -- DOE's Argonne National Laboratory -- May 21, 2016

Somehow this research doesn't quite measure up to what I would expect to come out of the Argonne National Laboratory. The laboratory has an incredibly rich nuclear energy history.

Maybe not so much any more if measured by this article in which the laboratory noted that blue collar workers, working in the outdoors, in the mud, tend to use more water on a daily basis than office workers.

The article also fails to note that these workers are not paying for their water on a usage basis; it comes as part of the "hotel" daily or weekly or monthly charge. The study also does not note that even if they did pay by usage, these guys would well afford it, being paid 1.5x, 2x, maybe as much as 5x what an office worker would get paid.

Before you get to deep into the article, this buried deep in the story:

Most of the water used in the North Dakota Bakken comes from Lake Sakakawea. Recent increases in the lake's water use due to population growth and oil development are not currently an issue in terms of continued availability.

Yes, that is correct: water remains a non-issue in the Bakken, and especially now that all the temporary workers have left and fracking has come to a standstill.

But this does take me back to my numerous posts early on with the data showing that water use in the Bakken was negligible compared to the amount released daily by the US Army Corps of Engineers.

It took me about 15 minutes to do that "research," and it cost the taxpayer nothing for my services.

Back to the linked article. The writer talks about three issues:

• water used in initial fracking (the writer doesn't mention that ND is advocating "produced water" for fracking
• freshwater for well maintenance (required for the life of the well)
• personal freshwater use by temporary oil workers

I can't make this stuff up.

This is an incredibly important piece of research however:

• it becomes a footnote in the history of the Bakken; and,
• it pretty much ensures that the Argonne folks won't come back to re-visit this story any time soon.

Hey, by the way, I posted a note on "freshwater for well maintenance" back in 2013. I'll be contacting Argonne to see if I was cited in their research. I don't expect to hear back.

Argonne Laboratory: a 2016 Geico Rock Award nominee?

I still get a kick out of learning that folks working in the mud tend to use more water than office workers.

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Water May Not Be An Issue In The Bakken, But ...

Lake Mead is setting new records -- but records we don't want to see.  The lake has declined to lowest levels in history.

As of Thursday afternoon, the lake’s level stood at an elevation of about 1,074.6 feet. The federal Bureau of Reclamation, which manages the reservoir and Hoover Dam, projects the level to decline a few feet more to an elevation of about 1,071 feet by the end of June, before the level begins to rise again with releases of water from Lake Powell.

Under the federal guidelines that govern reservoir operations, the Interior Department would declare a shortage if Lake Mead’s level is projected to be below 1,075 feet as of the start of the following year. In its most recent projections, the Bureau of Reclamation calculated the odds of a shortage at 10 percent in 2017, while a higher likelihood – 59 percent – at the start of 2018.

But those estimates will likely change when the bureau releases a new study in August. Rose Davis, a public affairs officer for the Bureau of Reclamation, said if that study indicates the lake’s level is going to be below the threshold as of Dec. 31, a shortage would be declared for 2017.

California has nothing to worry about:

That would lead to significant cutbacks for Arizona and Nevada. California, which holds the most privileged rights to water from the Colorado River, would not face reductions until the reservoir hits a lower trigger point.

Actually my hunch is that if there are significant cutbacks for Phoenix, Tucson, and Las Vegas but not for California, the cities and the states will sue. It would likely end up at the US Supreme Court but based on recent history, if the court remains at 4 - 4 split, it's unlikely to take the case.

The 4 - 4 court has ruled that contracts can be broken by midstream operators/MLPs in bankruptcy proceedings, or something to that effect -- I saw the headline about two weeks ago, but did not read the article. Nothing surprises me any more. Laws and contracts were meant to be broken, I guess.

OKE Earnings Are Better Than Okay -- February 23, 2015; 4/4 Wells Go To DRL Status

OKE earnings, forecase 36 cents: fourth-quarter 2014 net income attributable to ONEOK of $94.5 million, or 45 cents per diluted share, which includes income from discontinued operations of $0.8 million.

Fourth-quarter 2013 net income attributable to ONEOK was $90.7 million, or 43 cents per diluted share, which includes income from discontinued operations of $17.1 million, or 8 cents per diluted share.

Income from continuing operations attributable to ONEOK was $93.7 million in the fourth quarter 2014, compared with $73.7 million in the fourth quarter 2013.

Active rigs:

	2/23/2015	02/23/2014	02/23/2013	02/23/2012	02/23/2011
Active Rigs	126	187	181	204	168

Wells coming off confidential list were posted earlier; see sidebar at the right.

Wells coming off the confidential list Tuesday:

• 28016, drl, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-22D-15-5H, Charlson, no production data,
• 28412, drl, Hess, SC-JCB-154-98-1720H-2, Truax, no production data,
• 28777, drl, Slawson, Holst 2-33MLH, Big Bend, no production data,
• 29151, drl, Slawson, Rainmaker Federal 10-36-25TF2H, Big Bend, no production data,

Nine (9) new permits --

• Operators: BR (4), Whiting (3), EOG (2)
• Fields: Corral Creek (Dunn), Twin Valley (McKenzie), Parshall (Mountrail)
• Comments:

Oasis canceled six (6) permits:

• 27643 - 27645: Banks permits in Mountrail County
• 24971: Celia Horob in Williams County
• 24907: Jenny Vaughn in WIlliams County
• 26451: Ranger in McKenzie

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Water Project To Go Forward

Bakken.com is reporting:

An expected reduction in state oil tax revenues due to a global drop in oil prices could mean less money for the Northwest Area Water Supply project.

Gov. Jack Dalrymple’s budget included $18 million for NAWS, but the Legislature is considering $10 million. However, there still should be enough money to go ahead with a proposed $20 million expansion of the city’s water treatment plant.

The $14 million remaining from the current two-year budget and $10 million in new funding would bring the total to $24 million, more than enough to pay for design and construction at the water plant.

The NAWS project is to bring Missouri River water to northwestern North Dakota. Officials in Missouri and Canada have held up the project in the courts for years over environmental concerns, but a federal judge is allowing some construction work to proceed because the upgrades are needed in the area that’s on the edge of the oil patch.

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RBN Energy, Part 2, Refiners
Link here

While producers are licking their wounds after a more than 50% oil price crash, refiners have continued to enjoy healthy margins – even in the face of the largest refinery strike since 1980. Strong refining margins, supported by an ongoing boom in refined product exports, continue to encourage high levels of refinery utilization in the Gulf Coast region – home to more than 50% of U.S. refining capacity. Today we look at how Gulf Coast refiners are faring after the oil price crash.

In Episode 1 of this two part series we noted an uptick in domestic U.S. demand for gasoline and distillates during December 2014 and January 2015, presumably spurred by lower prices following the crude price crash during the latter half of 2014. That surge in demand goes against a longer-term decline trend in the use of these fuels and it remains unclear if it will be sustained in 2015.

What is clear from looking at crack spreads for a typical Midwest refinery is that refiners are still prospering in that region even as the upstream side of the hydrocarbons business suffers after the crude price crash. Midwest refiners have been used to making good margins over the past three years because of their access to cheaper advantaged crude. Following the crude price crash the spread between prices for inland and coastal crudes declined – removing most of that advantage.

However, refiners still fared well by benefitting from the lag between refined product prices (slower to fall) and crude. Now the growing crude surplus being added to Cushing inventories to take advantage of contango market storage will likely keep the lid on Midwest crude prices to the benefit of refining margins.

In this second installment we take a closer look at how Gulf Coast refineries are weathering the crude price crash.

The Gulf Coast region is home to more than 50% of U.S. refining capacity (over 9 MMb/d) but has only in the past two years begun to take full advantage of the shale era boom in U.S. domestic crude production.

While – as we described last time - Midwest refiners have enjoyed access to low priced advantaged crude since 2011, Gulf Coast refiners had to await the build out of pipeline and rail infrastructure to get access to cheaper crude supplies. Nevertheless, as we detailed in a two-part analysis last April, Gulf Coast refineries have enjoyed an export led boom since 2012 - largely driven by increased demand for diesel from Latin America.

And although some of that boom was driven by lower U.S. crude prices, Gulf Coast refinery sophistication and lower fuel costs (using cheap natural gas) were equally important ingredients for success. In the past two years as infrastructure was built out, Gulf Coast refineries became destination central for a flood of new domestic and Canadian production looking for a market.

This year new pipelines such as the 300 Mb/d Magellan/Plains BridgeTex from the Permian Basin and the Enbridge/Enterprise 450 Mb/d Seaway Twin from the Midcontinent continue to increase crude flows to the Gulf Coast.

These new flows are competing with and gradually replacing imported crude supplies. However, a mismatch between refineries configured to process heavy crude and an incoming surplus of lighter crudes has kept downward pressure on crude prices –leaving refiners in the cat bird seat to pick and choose from among competing suppliers and make limited capital investments to increase their throughput of lighter crudes.

 Again, this article will be archived at the source.

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The Oscars

My wife loves the Academy Awards; it might be the only show for which she might skip my funeral. LOL. I very much enjoy watching it with her, but I doubt I would watch it alone. I was thrilled to see The Grand Hotel Budapest won four Oscars, tying with Birdman, for most Oscars, 2015:

The film won the Golden Globe Award for Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy and garnered three more Golden Globe Award nominations, including Best Director for Anderson. It also garnered nine Academy Award nominations, the joint most for the ceremony, including Best Picture and Best Director. It won the Academy Awards for Best Production Design, Best Original Score, Best Costume Design and Best Makeup and Hairstyling.It tied with Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue Of Ignorance) for the most wins (4) this year.

I love GHB; when I get in the mood to see it again, I will watch it three or four or five times in succession over several days.

I did not see Birdman. Some big name actors -- Naomi Watts, for example.

I haven't seen American Sniper; something tells me the Academy was uncomfortable with it. The Academy is about 75% white male; median age about 62 years old.

I don't know how a show-opening joke about the white audience went over for the Oprah Winfrey crowd. But according to the critics it was a joke that had to be done. Sort of "check that box," "get that out of the way," and then get on with the show.

Best part of the evening for me: GBH winning four Oscars early in the show. Best part of the evening for my wife: Eddie Redmayne, best actor, for his portrayal of Stephen Hawking. I can't argue. Absolutely incredible.

Biggest snub: not including Joan Rivers -- a two-second slide -- in the "memoriam" segment. The Academy said there was not enough time.

The show ran over by about 20 minutes.

Biggest Story Of The Year For Fracking? -- September 16, 2014; Holding A Conference And "No One" Attends -- Do You Still Take Selfies?

The AP is reporting:

The final report from a landmark federal study on hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, found no evidence that chemicals or brine water from the gas drilling process moved upward to contaminate drinking water at a site in western Pennsylvania.

The Department of Energy report, released Monday, was the first time an energy company allowed independent monitoring of a drilling site during the fracking process and for 18 months afterward. After those months of monitoring, researchers found that the chemical-laced fluids used to free gas stayed about 5,000 feet below drinking water supplies.

Scientists used tracer fluids, seismic monitoring, and other tests to look for problems, and created the most detailed public report to date about how fracking affects adjacent rock structures.

The fracking process uses millions of gallons of high-pressure water mixed with sand and chemicals to break apart rocks rich in oil and gas. That has led to a national boom in production, but also concerns about possible groundwater contamination.

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Flat Earthers Are Staying Home
(Their Phrase, Not Mine)

It's one thing when "no one" shows up, but it speaks volumes when neither the prime minister of the Australia nor the prime minister of Canada NOR the president of ever-green Germany is attending the green energy / climate change conference in NYC. The link does not say whether the prime minister of the UK is attending. However, this source says he is attending but the EU prime minister will not be attending. The fact that neither Germany nor the EU will be sending their leaders -- just coincidental? The EU prime minister will be in NYC at the UN the following day, so it is a thought-out decision for him not to attend the Climate Change Conference. One must remember that much of the EU is heading into another recession (or never recovered from the last recession), much of it due to emphasis on global warming. The French premier plans to attend. It appears the farther one leans to the socialist agenda, the more likely one is to attend. This serves to point out, more than anything else, the "green movement" is simply an anti-capitalist / anti-free-market movement.

A Meeting Of The Flat Earth Society

This Global Warming Has Been A Blessing For Midwesterners: Fort Peck Reservoir Rose More Than 2 Feet In August; Second Highest August Runoff Into Fort Peck In Its History; Army Corps Releasing More Water; September 6, 2014

Remember this headline and link from earlier this year, April 12, 2014: More Snow For Montana; More Water For Lake Sakakawea -- Will This Winter Of Global Warming Ever End?

Yesterday I noted that the US Army Corps of Engineers releases enough water from Lake Sakakawea in 14 hours to frack every Bakken well that will be drilled this year.

Now, even more snow for Montana is predicted -- and when it all melts, most of it flows down the Yellowstone and the Missouri, to end up at Lake Sakakawea, adding to even more USACE run-off.

There was additional background at this post.

Now, even more water.  The Billings Gazette is reporting:

With near-record runoff into Fort Peck Reservoir in August — 170 percent of normal — the massive lake in northeastern Montana rose more than 2 feet, according to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers.

The Corps manages the upper Missouri River Basin series of dams from Fort Peck downstream. Agency officials announced the numbers during a Friday conference call.

It was the second highest August runoff into Fort Peck in its history, totaling 899,000 acre feet — an area equal to about 1,400 square miles. An acre foot is the amount of water it takes to cover one acre in 1 foot of water. The highest August runoff into the reservoir came in 1993, when 981,000 acre feet poured into the lake.

All of the water came from rain that fell at a rate about 400 percent above normal.

“August runoff was the third highest since 1898,” said Jody Farhat, chief of the Missouri River Basin Water Management Division.

One can track the release of water from a down-river dam -- the Garrison Dam -- at this site. Over the next three days, the average Garrison Dam release will be 26,000 cfs (cubic feet / second). To understand this number, here is a report from earlier this spring (from one of the links above):

Jody Farhat, water management chief for the corps, said plans are to step up releases through Garrison Dam from the current 18,000 cubic feet per second to 24,000 cfs by April 15 and 25,000 cfs by the end of the month.

Farhat said May average releases should be around 27,000 cfs and 30,000 cfs for June. 

She said that would mean a 2-3 foot increase in the level of the Missouri River through Bismarck and Mandan.

Exciting times.  I find it amazing what the global temperature increase of 0.85 degree in a century can result in; the warmists all predicted more snow and more rain.

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Blue Whales Saved By Global Warming

Two data points.

The Los Angeles Times is reporting:

Good news, whale lovers: A new analysis suggests that there are as many blue whales living off the coast of California as there were before humans started hunting them to near extinction 110 years ago.

Today, there are roughly 2,200 blue whales who range from Mexico in the south to Alaska in the north. In the 1930s, that number was closer to 750.

The University of Washington is reporting:

Following rapid warming in the late 20th century, this century has so far seen surprisingly little increase in the average temperature at the Earth’s surface. At first this was a blip, then a trend, then a puzzle for the climate science community.

More than a dozen theories have now been proposed for the so-called global warming hiatus, ranging from air pollution to volcanoes to sunspots. New research from the University of Washington shows that the heat absent from the surface is plunging deep in the north and south Atlantic Ocean, and is part of a naturally occurring cycle. The study is published Aug. 22 in Science.

Subsurface ocean warming explains why global average air temperatures have flatlined since 1999, despite greenhouse gases trapping more solar heat at the Earth’s surface.

Oh, speaking of which, the rising sea predicted by warmists. Doesn't exist. Not a lot of people know that is reporting, based on graphs even my granddaughters can interpret:

It does not take a genius to work out that sea levels have actually declined in the last decade or so. At the longest running gauge in Honolulu, NOAA offer a comparison of 50 yr trends.

Again, these graphs are from the NOAA, the official US government "global warming" agency.

I can't make this stuff up. A big thank you to all the sources providing this data and the links.

More Snow For Montana; More Water For Lake Sakakawea -- Will This Winter Of Global Warming Ever End?

Wow, it never quits.

Yesterday I noted that the US Army Corps of Engineers releases enough water from Lake Sakakawea in 14 hours to frack every Bakken well that will be drilled this year.

Now, even more snow for Montana is predicted -- and when it all melts, most of it flows down the Yellowstone and the Missouri, to end up at Lake Sakakawea, adding to even more USACE run-off.

IceAgeNow is reporting in big block letters so it won't be missed:

APR 12 2014

INCLUDING THE LOCATIONS OF… RED LODGE… ROBERTS… ROSCOE… FISHTAIL… MCLEOD… NYE… COOKE CITY… BURGESS JCT
…WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON SUNDAY…

* TIMING…SNOW WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

* SNOW ACCUMULATION MOUNTAINS…1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW LIKELY. HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR OVER THE NORTH AND EAST FACING SLOPES.

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UN Report On Global Warming "Balances" Science And Politics

That's truly a sad state of affairs when a scientific report has to be "politically correct." Before it could be released, the UN report on global warming had to be "balanced," had to take politics into consideration.

The National Geographic cover of the drowning Statue of Liberty probably did more than anything else to destroy the integrity of that organization. I was quite appalled. 

That National Geographic cover was a truly a cartoon of epic proportions.

Now, the AP plays into the same ruse: "UN climate report balances science and politics." Why not simply the "truth"?

"It's not pure science and it's not just politics," but a blend of both, Rayner said.

In Berlin, the politics showed through in a dispute over how to categorize countries in graphs showing the world's carbon emissions, which are currently growing the fastest in China and other developing countries. Like many scientific studies, the IPCC draft used a breakdown of emissions from low, lower-middle, upper-middle and high income countries.

Some developing countries objected and wanted the graphs to follow the example of U.N. climate talks and use just two categories — developed and developing — according to three participants who spoke to The Associated Press on condition of anonymity because the IPCC session was closed to the public.

The US representatives suggested hiding "facts" in footnotes and really, really small print. 

Russian representatives, I assume, disagreed about the map. The Crimean now belongs to Russia, not the Ukraine.

I can't wait to see the cover of the report: I assume the water will be up to Ms Liberty's nose this time.

Meanwhile, the Antarctic continent of ice keeps getting bigger and bigger and bigger. "They" call is an anomaly. I call it an inconvenient truth. There is no comparison between the small amount of water tied up in Arctic ice compared to the humungous amount of water tied up in the Antarctic ice. 

Just think how much "good" science could be reported if folks were interested in explaining things scientifically rather than what is "politically correct."

By the way, one of the unintended consequences of the UN's focus on global warming: all the money is being sucked up by "warmists," leaving very little money for other pet projects favored by various UN agencies. The UN is hoping that dialing back on "global warming," they can spread the wealth to other pet projects. Unfortunately, the "warmists" are used to all that money and are not going to give it up easily.

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Most Unremarkable Masters In A Long Time

Great Race At Darlington

Tiger Woods did not start. Phil Mickelson did not make the cut.  Twenty-year-old Jordan Spieth could take record from Tiger Woods: youngest player to win the Masters.

Meanwhile, a great race at Darlington. Kevin Harvick wins.

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Solomon Islands May Ban Fracking After 7.6 Earthquake

Just a hunch. Link here.

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Apple's iWatch: Like Several Thousand Dollars (For One)

Based on the comments, it is obvious that folks have no idea how much money is out there; how incredibly rich the ultra-rich are and how they will be more than willing to buy these watches. Apple never goes halfway. I have opined often that Apple's core business is fashion, not technology.  The rich are buying Teslas regardless of the cost or practicality. Likewise, EVs are priced way out of range for an but the wealthy. Apple knows what they are doing.

Enough Is Enough -- MInot

The Minot Daily News is reporting:

2013 was a record-setting year for annual precipitation in the Minot area. In many years that would be welcome news for cropland, hayfields, rivers and sloughs. But a year of unprecedented precipitation throughout the region certainly has grabbed the attention of forecasters and weary residents still struggling to recover from devastating flooding in 2011.

Evidence of the effect of 2013's heavy precipitation can be seen throughout the Minot area. Water tables rose during the year. In places such as Rice Lake southwest of Minot, there was visible proof of aquifers reaching levels of saturation that exceeds recorded history. Many sloughs were full to overflowing at freeze-up. Excess water is seemingly everywhere, but what does it mean?

The reaction of most people who live in wetter than normal areas is that enough is enough. While it is much too early to tell what spring runoff will bring, each snowfall between now and the spring melt will be watched carefully and its moisture content closely evaluated. What is known is that whatever amount of snow that falls in the weeks and months ahead will land on saturated ground.

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ObamaCare: Too Little Too Late

Finally, the mainstream media is reporting what bloggers have been reporting since the beginning. I remember ObamaCare was "sold" on the concern that 30 million Americans did not have health insurance. Now we learn that a lot of those 30 million wouldn't qualify for ObamaCare anyway. To qualify for ObamaCare one has to have "income" and many of the 30 million uninsured were uninsured for exactly that reason: no income.

It appears another 8 million who have lost their insurance due to ObamaCare will be added to the original 30 million uninsured, minus the 1.1 million who "might" be insured through the federal website and another 500,000 who "might" be insured through state exchanges. 30 + 8 - 2 = 36 million uninsured.

It would be "nice" if that was the extent of the debacle. Fiscal Times via The Week exposes how badly ObamaCare really is. We had to pass the bill to see what was in it.

Mandatory birth control for Catholic nuns is as good a soundbite as any for the craziness of ObamaCare. It took an Obama-appointed Supreme Court judge to "temporarily" stop that craziness. The White House has until Friday, this week to respond. It will be interesting to see how they spin this. Catholic nuns requiring birth control coverage.

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For the archives. Fiscal Times, again:

Now, younger consumers who will largely only see a doctor for an annual wellness check and perhaps an acute-issue clinic visit have to pay higher premiums for comprehensive coverage they don’t need, and won’t use. Most of them will have to accept high deductibles just to keep those skyrocketing premium costs within reach – which means they will have to spend thousands of dollars out of pocket anyway before they see any new benefit from comprehensive coverage.  It’s a bad deal for younger and healthier consumers, but the flood of cash is needed by insurers to cover the expenses of older and sicker Americans who will flood into the risk pools.

Based on enrollment figures already released from federal and state exchanges, the age distribution for enrollees in private-insurer plans skews too old, at least so far. Kentucky, where Obamacare advocates have claimed their greatest success, only has 24 percent of enrollments among those under 35 years of age compared to 39 percent above 55. In order to keep premiums from spiking again in 2015, the percentage for younger enrollees has to be close to 40 percent to ensure enough funds coming into the risk pools.

Needless to say, the White House is desperate to get younger Americans to provide that rather regressive wealth transfer.  Only 25 percent of the respondents [in a recent poll] are planning or leaning toward enrolling in private insurance plans, despite the fine that will be imposed for non-compliance. They can do math well enough to know that spending thousands of dollars on premiums and then more thousands on out-of-pocket deductibles for benefits they’re unlikely to access makes less sense than paying a few hundred dollars in fines and a cash price for the occasional clinic visit.

By the way, young, healthy millennials are not going to pay out-of-pocket for annual check-ups. Remember, the annual deductible must be met before insurance starts to kick in.

Lessons Learned: Water Is Also Necessary For Bakken Well Maintenance

This is a good news and a bad news story. The details are now just emerging. The Dickinson Press is reporting:

... a new need for water — for well maintenance.

The need for fracking water is well-known, he said. “But what we’re beginning to realize is that these Bakken wells will need freshwater for maintenance over their life.”

Operators are finding that when salt precipitation in wellbores causes production decline, it can be solved by putting freshwater down the well weekly, Helms said.

When that is factored into water use projections, maintenance water use exceeds frac water use.

“So we’re in the process of trying to find a way to recycle … produced water safely so that we can use produced water for fracking and save our freshwater resources for maintenance,” Helms said.

Billings County highway superintendent Jeff Iverson said both the water use and oil production projections were “staggering.”

Some comments:

• availability, per se, of water is not an issue in the Bakken; delivering water is an issue
• more water --> more jobs
• more water --> increased expenses
• either more pipelines to bring water to wells or more trucks on the highway
• increased productivity with minor tweaking; decelerating the decline curve

Water And Fracking -- California

The New York Times is reporting:

Driven by advances in drilling technology and high oil prices, oil companies are increasingly moving into traditionally agricultural areas like Shafter that make up one of the world’s most fertile regions but also lie above a huge untapped oil reserve called the Monterey Shale. Even as California’s total oil production has declined slightly since 2010, the output of the North Shafter oil field and the number of wells have risen by more than 50 percent.  

By all accounts, oilmen and farmers — often shortened to “oil and ag” here — have coexisted peacefully for decades in this conservative, business friendly part of California about 110 miles northwest of Los Angeles. But oil’s push into new areas and its increasing reliance on fracking, which uses vast amounts of water and chemicals that critics say could contaminate groundwater, are testing that relationship and complicating the continuing debate over how to regulate fracking in California.

“As farmers, we’re very aware of the first 1,000 feet beneath us and the groundwater that is our lifeblood,” said Tom Frantz, a fourth-generation farmer here and a retired high school math teacher who now cultivates almonds. “We look to the future, and we really do want to keep our land and soil and water in good condition.”

So, California has two issues:

• enough water for industrial, agricultural, personal use
• concern over groundwater and safety of fracking 

And they haven't even started talking about fracking, fault lines, and earthquakes in California.

WAWS Water At 13-Mile Corner

CRC provided the link.

Great story. KFYR out of Bismarck reporting:

The demand for water is bigger than ever in western North Dakota, as residential and industrial growth continues to flourish. Thanks to some unique water depots, help is officially on the way. These depots are part of the Western Area Water Supply Project being installed throughout the western half of the state. Unlike most state-run projects, this one is being paid for by the oil industry.

Water is for sale at the 13 Mile Corner and area truckers couldn't be happier.

"Oh this is extremely helpful having this here, it really shortens the distance us truck drivers have to go for water and it makes our turnaround so much faster," said truck driver Rick Ingraham.

Go to the link for some interesting additional data points.

This is a very big story; lots of implications. Key phrase in the article: "state-of-the-art" water depots.

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This really was my favorite album at the time it came out:

Wah-Wah, George Harrison

Huge Story on Fracking Water in the Bakken

Link to The Bismarck Tribune.

A temporary cease-fire in the war for Lake Sakakawea water was issued Tuesday by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers.

The corps will approve its first surplus water agreement to pipe lake water to the oil field, opening the faucet to what could become a significant source of water for hydraulic fracturing of thousands of wells in the oil patch.

Larry Janis, division director for the corps’ Omaha district office, said in an email to Bob Shaver, who directs water appropriations for the State Water Commission, that the agreement was approved at corps’ headquarters in Washington, D.C. The paperwork will be processed in Omaha, Janis said.

The State Water Commission has been sitting on 20 applications for a total of 70,000 acre feet of lake water since the corps said nearly three years ago that it will begin charging a fee for storing the water and needed time to implement the storage policy, said water resource engineer Dan Farrell.

I did not read the "small print" so I do not know what is all about.  All I know is that if the Corps charges a fee for "storage" they are also liable when their "stored water" floods.

For newbies: the amount of water taken from the Missouri for fracking is minuscule. I've talked about that ad nauseam.

Water, Fracking, and Myths

Updates

August 28, 2012: this is the second part of that 2-part series by the Dickinson Press. This is one of the reasons why I support WAWS and have concerns with independents. 

August 26, 2012: The article is all over the place but if you take the time, you might be able to put together the water story posted by The Dickinson Press/InsideCimate News.  For newbies, water per se is not an issue in the Bakken: hauling water, cost of water, and greed, are the problems, but there is more water than necessary to frack wells in the Bakken. It appears that something less than 3,000 wells will be fracked yearly; the US Army Corps of Engineers promised enough water from the Missouri River for 10,000 wells/year (whether they keep that promise or not is another issue).

One inch of water drawn from Lake Sakakawea contains 10 billion gallons of water — enough to drill 5,000 wells using an average of 2 million gallons of water, according to state calculations.

One inch of water from Lake Sakakawea would more than meet the needs of twice the number of wells projected to be fracked in any given year.

One other data point:

"... a thriving market for water that has become an industry with yearly sales estimated at between $45 million to $120 million."

One well costs $10 million to complete; about 200 wells/month are being drilled in the Bakken. The cost of only 12 of those wells in one month alone works out to $120 million; or another way, the dollars it costs to complete one well per month (out of 200 wells) is all that water is costing. The volume of water is even less when put into perspective (see original post and go to link).

It must have been a slow news day. It's hard for me to believe WAWS is still an issue. One word: greed.

Original Post

If you don't do anything else this weekend while surfing the net, visit this site to see a great graphic on how much water is used to frack a typical Marcellus shale gas well. It's absolutely horrendous. When you get to the link, scroll down until you see the graphic on "How Much Water Does a Shale Gas Well Use."

It's shocking. Shocking, I say.

By they way, if you google the question, "how much water does a shale gas well use," the hits all use the same analogy but only tell the first half of the story. Thank goodness for the internet.

The link was provided by Independent Stock Analysis.

Friday Links; Christmas in August: Twenty-Three (23) New Permits; Several Nice Wells, Including Three (3) Nice CLR Wells -- The Williston Basin, North Dakota, USA; Waterless Fracking Update

I may have to do a stand-alone post just to curb my enthusiasm: 23 new permits in the Williston Basin.

• Operators: Hess (6), Surge Energy (5), CLR (5), WPX Energy (4), Oasis (2), Marquis Alliance
• Fields: Antelope (McKenzie), Truax (Williams), Souris (Bottineau), Upland (Divide), Elm Tree (McKenzie), Squires (Williams), Blue Buttes (McKenzie), Sanish (Mountrail -- a salt water disposal)

Five (5) producing wells completed:

• 21585, 1,210, CLR, Roadrunner 2-15H, Dunn,
• 21583, 1,087, CLR, Roadrunner 3-15H, Dunn,
• 21584, 1,081, CLR, Clover 3-10H, Dunn,
• 22495, 805, Liberty Resources, Borrud 156-101-1-12-1H, Williams,
• 20029, 792, Fidelity, Krables 22-15H, Mountrail

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For a few minutes this was lead story at CNBC website; it's now dropped a notch but still on first page: Oil companies desperately seek water amid Kansas drought.

Independent Stock Analysis energy links.
RBN Energy: ethanol -- crushing pain and mandate madness.  Yup.

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These wells come off confidential list on Friday:
20739, 826, Hess, HA-Thompson-152-95-1720H-2, Hawkeye oil field; t5/12; cum 23K 6/12;
20990, 209, Petro-Hunt, Berg 157-100-7D-6-1H, Marmon oil field, t5/12; cum 7,4595 bbls 6/12;
21079, 1,218, Petro-Hunt, Fort Berthold 148-94-19D-18-2H, Eagle Nest; t6/12; cum 6,962 bbls 6/12;

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Just so I don't forget. There has been a lot of chatter about oil companies losing their leases because they can't get to their permitted/leased sites fast enough. From NOG 2Q12 press release:

Northern Oil currently controls approximately 865 undeveloped net acres that are prospective for the Bakken and Three Forks and could potentially expire in the remainder of 2012, representing approximately 0.5% of Northern Oil's overall Williston Basin position.

I can only assume operators are as well positioned. Lots of chatter about a non-issue. 

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Off-shore permitorium continues. From Oil and Gas Journal:

The Obama administration did not properly consult with coastal states as it prepared its 2012-17 US Outer Continental Shelf management program, seven governors from coastal states charged. “In the plan, the administration fails to expand adequate access to resource-abundant areas in the Arctic and fails to establish leasing in the Mid- and South-Atlantic,” they said in an Aug. 8 letter to US President Barack Obama.

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For investors only:

Houston-based oilfield service company National Oilwell Varco Inc. (NOV) will acquire Robbins & Myers in an all-cash transaction valued at approximately $2.5 billion, NOV said Thursday.

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Fracking without water?

Chimera Energy Corp [website] announced Thursday that they have executed a Memorandum of Understanding with PEMEX regarding the utilization of CHMR's revolutionary exothermic Non-Hydraulic Extraction method throughout Latin America. The Non-Hydraulic Extraction method is a revolutionary Shale Oil extraction technology designed to safely and economically replace hydraulic fracturing without negative environmental impacts. The new process uses no water.

But does it use diesel?

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A Note for the Granddaughters

A tradition for our summer in Los Angeles: taking the granddaughters to Griffith Park in Los Angeles where they can ride the ponies/horses (just part of all we do in Griffith Park).

So, today, we started off with pony riding in Griffith Park. Both of them are familiar with the routine, and very comfortable around horses, but it was fun to watch them hold hands as they got closer to the horses, quietly giving each other a bit of support.

This will turn out to be one of my all-time favorite photos of the granddaughters:

Talking Paper on Fracking -- Colorado

Total Amount of Water Used in Fracking (as a percentage) Represents a "Rounding Error"

Don sent me the link to this talking paper on water and fracking.

Lots of great data points.

Perhaps the data point I like best is found on page 4 of the 9-page paper:

Water Demands in Colorada

Total: 17.4 million acre-feet/year
Agricultural: 13.9 million acre-feet/year (85.5%)
Municipal and industrial: 1.2 million acre-feet/year (7.4%)
Total All Others: 1.2 million acre-feet/year (7.1%)

Breakdown of "All Others" (selected):
Recreation: 923K (5.6%)
Hydraulic fracturing: 14K (0.08%)
Snowmaking: 5K (0.03%)

One of the things that I find frustrating in mainstream media is that they deal in numerators and not denominators. We always hear how much water is necessary for fracking, but mainstream media never provides the percent that water represents compared to other industries and other needs.

I assume these percents are about the same in North Dakota. If so, the amount of water used in fracking represents a "rounding error."

For those folks who want to play around with the calculator app on their iPad: one acre-foot is approximately equal to 326,000 gallons.

Another Look at Water and Fracking -- The Bakken, North Dakota, USA

Before reading the data points regarding water and fracking, go back to this link first. This was an early link in which the US Army Corps of Engineers agreed to release enough water from the reservoir to frack up to 10,000 wells per year.

A reader sent me a PDF summary regarding water and fracking that was presented at the 2011 North Dakota Water Convention. The PDF came in as an attachment so I don't have the original link, but it is probably located at the NDIC site.

Here are some high points (some numbers rounded):

• There are 35 fracking crews in North Dakota
• A single fracking crew/rig can frack about 20 wells/year
• 35 x 20 --> 700 wells can be fracked/year in North Dakota at the present time
• The current average water used in fracking is about 6 acre-feet per site
• In 2011, a total of about 4,000 acre-feet of water might be used for fracking in North Dakota

Again, if the US Army Corps of Engineers is willing to release enough water to frack 10,000 wells/year, and at most, the number of wells that can be fracked in North Dakota right now is about 700, one can see why I have repeatedly said water is not an issue in North Dakota (except, of course, distribution: trucks, pipeline, private, public, etc).

The "700" figure looks about right; it looks like the state will see about 2,000 wells drilled this year, and to me, it looks like about 1/3 to 1/2 (maybe more) of these wells will not be fracked during the confidential period.

This post was done in haste; there may be errors in the math (or arithmetic).  The data points are correct, to the best of my knowledge.

Source of Fracking Water for the Bakken

Someone googled that question: the source of fracking water for the Bakken? See question 50 at FAQs (I occasionally change the numbering, so the number could change; use browser to search water if necessary).

It's the Missouri River for the most part.

Well water is also used.

Through 2011, I believe most water was provided by independent water distributors and, perhaps, the city of Williston municipal water supply. Sometime in 2012/2013, I assume most fracking water will be provided by WAWS. I don't know the specifics on fracking water because I do not follow it closely. There is not a supply issue regarding water for fracking in the Bakken.

There is more than enough water in the region for fracking. The one thing the Bakken is not short of is water, regardless of what folks may tell you. One inch of water off the top of the Sakakawea Lake (the Missouri River behind the Garrison Dam) will provide all the water that is needed for 5,000 Bakken wells annually; and the operators can drill a max of about 2,000 wells each year.  So don't let anyone suggest there is not enough water. Period. Dot.

For more, look at the tag "WAWS" or "water" below -- at the very bottom of the blog where the labels/tags are kept.