PG&E Can't Get A Break -- With Comments -- February 7, 2019

From oilprice:

A gas line operated by Pacific Gas and Electric Co. exploded yesterday (Wednesday, February 6, 2019), sending flames high into the air [wow, high into the air], the San Francisco Chronicle reported, adding that the explosion set five buildings around the line on fire.

The explosion, it turned out, had occurred by accident [I'm glad it was an accident, I would hate to think it was done on purpose], when a member of a Verizon crew working on the same street struck the gas line.

It took the company two hours to put it out, the daily reports, because, as explained by a PG & E’s spokesman, the crew had to cut the asphalt to get to the line and turn off a valve to stop the flow by hand, with shovels [I'm glad they clarified, that by hands, they "included" shovels]. The reason they could not use machinery was that the line was too close to the surface and the risk of an accidental spark igniting another blast would have been too great.

“You can imagine having to hand-dig in asphalt. It takes time,” company spokesman Blair Jones said. “It’s also very cold right now. If we do this wrong, we shut off gas to potentially hundreds, maybe thousands more people in San Francisco.” [Yes, best to let the fire get out of control than turn off the gas.]

As a result of the blast 2,500 residents in the surrounding area were left without electricity and 300 gas customers were cut off. Within a few hours however, electricity supply was restored to most of the affected households. [And, so we have a happy ending.]

I'm A Believer! Arctic Ocean Getting Warmer; Seals Vanish And Icebergs Melt -- AP And Washington Post -- February 7, 2019

Somehow I missed this article. From the article:

The Arctic ocean is warming up, icebergs are growing scarcer and in some places the seals are finding the water too hot, according to a report to the Commerce Department yesterday from Consulafft, at Bergen, Norway.

Reports from fishermen, seal hunters and explorers all point to a radical change in climate conditions and hitherto unheard-of temperatures in the Arctic zone. Exploration expeditions report that scarcely any ice has been met as far north as 81 degrees 29 minutes. Soundings to a depth of 3,100 meters showed the gulf stream still very warm.

Great masses of ice have been replaced by moraines of earth and stones, the report continued, while at many points well known glaciers have entirely disappeared.
Very few seals and no white fish are found in the eastern Arctic, while vast shoals of herring and smelts which have never before ventured so far north, are being encountered in the old seal fishing grounds.

I'm A Believer, The Monkees
This is the link to "the story" referenced above. Fact checked "true" by Snopes.

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The Market

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here.

From Chesto over at the Boston Globe:

Oh-oh: Fitch Ratings changed its outlook on General Electric's credit to negative from stable, sending the Boston company's stock down 3.9 percent to $10.06. The firm -- which cited risks related to GE's power business, free cash flow, and GE Capital unit -- affirmed its debt rating of BBB+, which is three notches above "junk" status. Moody's and S&P gave GE a stable outlook after lowering their ratings in October.

It's been a long time: In the first big bank deal in more than a decade, BB&T agreed to buy SunTrust Banks for $28 billion in stock. Driving the deal: the need for scale to keep up in a technology arms race with Bank of America and Chase Bank, which are luring consumers with sophisticated digital offerings. The combined bank, to be based in Charlotte, N.C., will be the sixth-biggest commercial bank in the US by assets. 

And the best one:

Pelosi-DOA:  Liberal Democrats led by Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York and Senator Ed Markey of Massachusetts proposed a "New Green Deal," an ambitious resolution intended to redefine the national debate on climate change. It includes a 10-year commitment to convert “100 percent of the power demand in the United States” to “clean, renewable and zero-emission energy sources,” to upgrade “all existing buildings” to meet energy efficiency requirements, and to undertake an enormous expansion of high-speed rail that would, its authors claim, render most air travel obsolete. While the proposal draws a sharp contrast to President Trump's weakening of environmental regulations, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has no plans to take up the measure.  

The MRO Reunion Bay Wells In Section 30-152-93

Early wells:

• 22288, 1,466, MRO, Joanne Quale USA 21-30H, Reunion Bay, t1/13; cum 431K 11/20;  huge jump in production 12/18;
• 22289, 1,444, MRO, Joanne Quale USA 21-30TFH, Reunion Bay, t12/12; cum 429K 11/20; moderate jump in 6/19;

Nine MRO DUCs reported as completed today, five Three Forks wells; four middle Bakken wells:

• 33923, 6,179, MRO, Maleckar USA 31-30H, Reunion Bay, t1/19; cum 341K 11/20;
• 33925, 5,395, MRO, Wendell USA 31-30H, Reunion Bay, t1/19; cum 229K 11/20; was off line 12/19- 3/20; back on line 4/20;
• 33924, 5,517, MRO, Skadeland USA 31-30TFH, Reunion Bay, t1/19; cum 241K 11/20; was off line 12/19- 3/20; back on line 4/20;
  
• 34597, 3,614, MRO, Sheldon USA 21-30TFH, Reunion Bay, t1/19; cum 328K 11/20;
• 24620, 4,857, MRO, Coburn USA 41-30TFH, Reunion Bay, t1/19; cum 262K 11/20;
• 24621, 2,686, MRO, Bobby Lee USA 41-30H, Reunion Bay, t1/19; cum 253K 11/20; off line 5/20; back on line;
  
• 33928, 5,189, MRO, Honaker USA 41-30TFH, Reunion Bay, t1/19; cum 289K 11/20;
• 33927, 4,722, MRO, Zelda USA 11-29H, Reunion Bay, t1/19; cum 250K 11/20; interestingly off line 11/20; F;
  
• 33926, 3,943, MRO, Cantrill USA 11-29TFH, Reunion Bay, t1/19; cum 333K 11/20;

The graphic of the area:

Room for 28 more wells.

Hey, what about #33639?

NDIC File No: 33639     API No: 33-053-08050-00-00     CTB No: 133639 Well Type: OG     Well Status: A     Status Date: 11/28/2018     Wellbore type: Horizontal Location: NWNW 30-152-93     Footages: 600 FNL 480 FWL     Latitude: 47.961609     Longitude: -102.640027 Current Operator: MARATHON OIL COMPANY Current Well Name: GRETCHEN USA 11-30H Elevation(s): 2057 KB   2030 GR   2035 GL     Total Depth: 20855     Field: ANTELOPE Spud Date(s):  12/21/2017 Casing String(s):  9.625" 2182'   7" 11018'   Completion Data    Pool: SANISH     Perfs: 11118-20723     Comp: 11/28/2018     Status: F     Date: 12/23/2018     Spacing: 4SEC Cumulative Production Data    Pool: SANISH     Cum Oil: 44892     Cum MCF Gas: 54979     Cum Water: 19778 Production Test Data    IP Test Date: 12/23/2018     Pool: SANISH     IP Oil: 3576     IP MCF: 4192     IP Water: 1549

Monthly Production Data Pool Date Days BBLS Oil Runs BBLS Water MCF Prod MCF Sold Vent/Flare SANISH 12-2018 14 44399 44098 19183 54081 0 53995 SANISH 11-2018 18 493 0 595 898 0 898

 

The Permian Should Be Profitable -- Even With $45-Oil -- Rystad Energy -- February 7, 2019

I thought I had posted this easier but maybe not. Whatever. Here it is. The headline seems a bit confusing. Whatever.

But if this is accurate, this has to be very, very concerning for Saudi Arabia. For Saudi Arabia, $45-oil is an existential issue. Period. Dot.

This is the key data point from the article regarding the Permian:

From Oil & Gas Journal:

Having taken a closer look at the detailed economics of the most recent 1,000 wells drilled in the most popular shale hotspot—the Wolfcamp A zone of the Permian Delaware basin—Rystad Energy can see a clear pattern emerging that favors large players.

“Our conclusion is that the average well completed during 2017 and 2018, which mirrors the most likely production profile and costs, appears very profitable even at local oil prices of $45/bbl,” said Per Magnus Nysveen, Rystad Energy senior partner.

“However, there are also many wells that will not be profitable at this price level, and drilling needs to be conducted on a large scale in order to secure robust cash flows even in the hottest play. Betting on a low number of wells could give more uncertain returns than rolling the dice at the nearest casino.”

The graphic:

A few points:

• this is the same thing we saw (and continue to see) in the Bakken
• the decline rate will improve over time -- but it will always be there ... but...
• the decline rate is the wrong metric to follow

It should be noted that it's my understanding that Permian wells are much more expensive to drill/complete than Bakken wells and produce much less oil /well. I know I'm correct on the latter; could be wrong on the former.

Only Two New Permits Today -- February 7, 2019

Active rigs:

$52.65	2/7/2019	02/07/2018	02/07/2017	02/07/2016	02/07/2015
Active Rigs	63	58	40	42	136

Two new permits:

• Operator: Liberty Reources
• Field: Gros Ventre
• Comments: Liberty Resources has permits for a 2-well Dolores/Orris pad in Gros Ventre, in section 15-159-93;

Nine MRO DUCs reported as completed today, five Three Forks wells; four middle Bakken wells:

• 33923, 6,179, MRO, Maleckar USA 31-30H, Reunion Bay, t1/19; cum --;
• 33925, 5,395, MRO, Wendell USA 31-30H, Reunion Bay, t1/19; cum --;
• 33924, 5,517, MRO, Skadeland USA 31-30TFH, Reunion Bay, t1/19; cum --;
• 34597, 3,614, MRO, Sheldon USA 21-30TFH, Reunion Bay, t1/19; cum --;
• 24620, 4,857, MRO, Coburn USA 41-30TFH, Reunion Bay, t1/19; cum --; 
• 24261, 2,686, MRO, Bobby Lee USA 41-30H, Reunion Bay, t1/19; cum --;
• 33928, 5,189, MRO, Honaker USA 41-30TFH, Reunion Bay, t1/19; cum --;
• 33927, 4,722, MRO, Zelda USA 11-29H, Reunion Bay, t1/19; cum --;
• 33926, 3,943, MRO, Cantrill USA 11-29TFH, Reunion Bay, t1/19; cum;

Meanwhile, I have to get that memo to Art Berman in the mail.

Operator transfer: see yesterday's note and this note from earlier today. It looks like another 185 wells (+/-) were transferred from Enduro Operating to Cobra Oil & Gas. 

EQT Reports A 3-Mile Lateral In Pennsylvania -- February 7, 2019

From Energent Group today, look at this:

EQT reported two completions on a multiple well pad in Washington county, Pennsylvania.

Haywood Mon110H24 and Haywood Mon110H25 were completed on January 3 and tested January 7. The H24 produced 15,565 MMcf of gas on its 38 stage lateral with a vertical depth of 7,332 ft.

The H25 was drilled to 7,304 ft with a 129 stage 18,450 ft lateral length. Both wells use frac material provided by FTSI International, perforations by GR Energy Services, and drill out services by Mountain State Pressure Services.

The Cogar 592747, drilled on a separate pad in Washington, Pennsylvania, produced 15,341 MMcf of gas. Its 35 stage lateral was drilled to 5,935 ft with perforations from 8,471 ft to 13,299 ft.  It has a vertical depth of 7,621 ft and a measured depth of 3,556 ft. Frac horsepower was provided by Keane and cementing by BJ Cement Services.

Did you see that? A three-mile lateral? 129 stages and 18,450 feet lateral length. Actually, three miles is 15,840 feel, so this is well over three miles long.

Back to the Bakken, also being reported by Emergency today:

Responding To The Glut Of Light Oil -- February 7, 2019

Updates

Later, 8:46 p.m. CT: see first comment -- Very interesting... I wonder if the Capline ends at Patoka, IL? I believe the Dakota Access pipeline ends at Patoka, IL. Part of the reason for there was that's as high up the barges could come up the Mississipi and carry a full load.(down to Louisiana). Maybe Patoka is a hub of sorts.... the map: from RBN Energy --

 

Original Post

From January 11, 2019:

RBN Energy: will crude soon be flowing south on Capline?

The possibility of reversing the flow on Capline — the U.S.’s largest northbound crude oil pipeline — has been discussed for a number of years now. Finally, it may be on the horizon. The three owners of Louisiana-to-Illinois pipeline announced last week that this month they plan to initiate a binding open season for a reversed Capline system that would enable southbound flows starting in the third quarter of 2020 — only a year and a half from now. And, as we discuss in today’s blog, reversing Capline’s direction could open up new crude-slate possibilities for Louisiana refineries and boost crude exports out of the Bayou State.

Today, it is announced that the Capline will be reversed in September, 2020. Link here.

The reversed Capline is expected to be "available for service" to carry light, sweet crude by September 2020, allowing North American crudes to flow more easily to eastern US Gulf Coast refineries, an executive said Thursday.

This is the third story in less than three weeks regarding how the US oil sector will deal with all that light oil. Slowly but surely. Another great story.

The first story: Chevron to expand a Gulf Coast refinery to deal with light oil.

The second story: ExxonMobil to increase light oil refining capacity along the Gulf Coast in conjunction with a new one-million Permian pipeline (partner with Qater).

This third story: reversing the Capline to get all that light oil to the northeast.

More Global Warming Hits The Bakken -- February 7, 2019

Folks forget. February is the coldest month in the Bakken.

Meanwhile:

 

The CLR Bohmbach Wells Have Been Updated -- February 7, 2019

These wells were all recently "IA." Now they are pretty much all back on line and are big (very big) wells.

Tracked here.

It Gets Tedious -- It Never Quits ... -- February 7, 2019

... every time I simply want to update wells, I end up with another big well and have to break away and update. For example, this one:

• 20892, 1,352, EOG, Clarks Creek 16-0706H, Clarks Creek, a Bakken Pool well; 4-section spacing; t3/12; cum 340K 12/18;

This well was not re-fracked. It was taken off line recently due to neighboring well activity. Recent production data:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	12-2018	31	5863	5842	4335	40119	38761	408
BAKKEN	11-2018	30	6959	6976	5530	39990	28726	10326
BAKKEN	10-2018	31	10151	10113	7860	41288	40594	184
BAKKEN	9-2018	30	13107	13102	10776	41728	40367	851
BAKKEN	8-2018	11	4739	4674	4540	5563	4967	518
BAKKEN	7-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2018	0	0	10	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2018	12	686	700	332	1275	1191	2
BAKKEN	4-2018	30	1739	1745	1352	2901	2651	8
BAKKEN	3-2018	31	1852	1883	1772	3557	3303	4

Same with this well, not re-fracked:

• 20887, 1,455, EOG, Clarks Creek 13-1806H, Clarks Creek, a Bakken Pool well; 4-section spacing; t3/12; cum 352K 12/18; again, not re-fracked; recent production profile:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	12-2018	31	11081	11023	10800	22876	22051	228
BAKKEN	11-2018	30	11868	11850	11772	24056	17310	6136
BAKKEN	10-2018	31	12721	12665	13299	18807	18431	82
BAKKEN	9-2018	30	14170	14228	17983	21193	20451	424
BAKKEN	8-2018	18	9354	9225	15495	12965	11571	1215
BAKKEN	7-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2018	0	0	14	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2018	15	966	987	1043	2012	1904	2
BAKKEN	4-2018	30	2605	2613	2624	6308	6052	16
BAKKEN	3-2018	31	2714	2749	3805	6939	6683	8

More Moratoria On Natural Gas Hook-Ups Announced For NYC, New England -- February 7, 2019

Wow, before I even get started, I see renewable energy is down to a new low in New England, contributing only 7% to the grid. Natural gas is now supplying more than 51% of electricity for New England.

Anyway, back to the subject at hand. Before I get started, a huge "thank you" to the reader who alerted me to this. This particular reader does not write me often, but when he does it's always incredibly good information. Based on what he sends me, I doubt anyone knows more about the natural gas sector in the northeast United States than he does.

Years ago I worked in a NYC bedroom community, Westfield, NJ. It was important for me to "know" the jurisdictional boundaries of cities, counties, states.

Throw in the boroughs of NYC and it comes even more complicated.

The City of New York is made up of five boroughs. The State of New York is made up of counties. Each City borough is also State county.

• Manhattan - New York County
• Bronx - Bronx County
• Brooklyn - Kings County
• Queens - Queens County
• Staten Island - Richmond County

There are several counties in the area:

• Westchester County: includes Yonkers, New Rochelle, Mount Vernon, and White Plains
• On Long Island:
• Brooklyn County
• Nassau County
• Queens County
• Suffolk County

I do that for my benefit. I became more interested in the geography of the area after reading The Great Gatsby.

But the geography is important for me for other reasons.

A reader reminds me that two utilities in the NYC area have announced moratoria on new natural gas hook-ups (previously posted, but I can't keep track of all this).

From a reader:

Huge utility, Con Ed, rocked New York city area by declaring a moratorium on new gas hookups in Westchester starting in a few weeks (March 15). Developers are apoplectic as this means no new construction will occur sans economical natgas supply.

Second, large utility - National Grid - just followed up with another body blow to region by declaring a new gas hookup moratorium starting May 15 for Brooklyn, Queens, and Long Island.

The reader writes:

There is a short (24 mile long) gas pipeline Northeast Expansion Supply - that would alleviate most of this shortfall, but politics has been holding up construction.

The writer suggests that there are very "big" developers, business interests that won't "go belly up to Save the Planet."

The moratoria?

It's serious. See this this article over at lohud.

Con Ed could run out of natural gas before the moratorium is put into place. 

Cobra Oil & Gas Acquires Enduro's Assets In North Dakota -- February 7, 2019

Updates

Later, 6:27 p.m. CT: It looks like another 185 wells (+/-) were transferred from Enduro Operating to Cobra Oil & Gas. 
 

Original Post

Re-posting.

From the NDIC:

Change of operator: approximately 203 wells were transferred from Enduro Operating to Cobra Oil & Gas ... more on this later. 

One can find permits/wells in North Dakota operated by Cobra Oil & Gas at this link.

From PLS a year ago: 

Enduro signed a $45 million stalking horse PSA with Cobra Oil & Gas Corp. for the sale of long-lived conventional Madison waterflood assets in the Williston and Big Horn Basins in North Dakota. Enduro entered North Dakota in mid-2012 with its acquisition of Ward Williston Oil Company assets. The Ward Williston assets consisted of 162 wells on about 30,000 net acres mostly HBP acres in Renville, Bottineau and Burke counties. Wichita Falls, TX-based Cobra......

Enduro filed for bankruptcy about a year ago. Link here. 

Bloomberg here on Cobra.

Pretty good story at the Ft Worth Star-Telegram.

Enduro Resource Partners, an oil and natural gas exploration company founded in 2010 by the prominent Fort Worth father-and-son team Jon Brumley and Jonny Brumley, has filed for bankruptcy reorganization as the company prepares to sell its holdings in six states.

The company has been "undermined by persistently low oil and gas prices during the past several years," Kimberly Weimer, Enduro's chief financial officer, said in the documents, filed in Delaware Tuesday. Enduro's debt, she said, "became insurmountable."

Enduro has oil and gas properties in Texas, North Dakota, Louisiana, New Mexico, Wyoming and Montana.

Enduro sank $26 million more into the company in 2016, but it wasn't enough. The company was unable to restructure its debt.

By September 2017, Enduro realized it wouldn't be able to pay $208.7 million owed to Bank of America by March 30 of this year. It also owes $141.2 million to Wilmington Trust.

The company will continue to operate as it sheds its assets. The petition includes five Enduro subsidiaries and affiliates. It does not include Enduro Royalty Trust, a publicly traded Delaware trust formed in 2011.

In September 2017, Enduro sold some of its oil and gas properties in the Permian Basin in Texas and New Mexico for $49.1 million. In January, the company started the sale process. The properties are divided into four packages. Enduro has already secured stalking horse bidders for three of those packages. Those bids would bring $96.6 million.

February 7, 2019, T+36 -- Nothing About The Bakken

Am I missing something here? Link here.

A northwest Indiana utility made headlines in September when it announced it will retire its last coal plant within a decade.

That’s not soon enough for the predominately African American community that bears the brunt of the plant’s pollution burden.

NIPSCO’s new timeline for coal retirements has been widely celebrated by environmental groups both in and outside the state. Meanwhile, Indiana NAACP leaders continue to press the utility and regulators to act with greater urgency.

“Those most impacted should not have to wait another decade for clean air,” said La’Tonya Troutman, environmental chair for the NAACP chapter in Michigan City, where NIPSCO plans to continue operating its coal plant through 2028.

And, of course, when they close that coal plant, along with all the others, their monthly electricity bill will go up. And they will be looking for new jobs. 

In the "old days," it was my impression that the NAACP fought for jobs for their constituents. Maybe I was wrong. 

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Connecting The Dots

Folks are finally connecting the dots between racial bias in medicine (affecting African-Americans); blackface; and events unfolding in Virginia. I talked about that a few days ago. Wow. 

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Global Warming

I've talked several times about 1,500 jets to Davos for an AGW conference. 

Now we hear that the Pelosi Dems will advocate banning all air travel within ten years! Occasional-Cortex will not be placed on the Pelosi US House select committee on AGW.

Wow, Wow, Wow! Golden Pass Contract Goes To BHGE -- February 7, 2019

Link here.

Baker Hughes, a GE company (BHGE) reported Thursday that it will supply turbomachinery equipment for the construction of the Golden Pass LNG export facility in Sabine Pass, Texas.

Partners ExxonMobil Corp. and Qatar Petroleum announced Feb. 5 that they had decided to proceed with Golden Pass and expect to break ground on the $10 billion-plus project this quarter. The companies have also awarded a joint venture of McDermott International, Inc., Chiyoda International Corp. and Zachry Group the mega-contract to build the facility, which will produce approximately 16 million tons per year of liquefied natural gas (LNG).

BHGE will supply turbomachinery equipment for three LNG trains, including six gas turbines and 12 centrifugal compressions. 

 Golden Pass LNG export facility vision: to be best in class.

The Daily Activity Report For Wednesday, February 6, 2019, Has Just Been Posted

At 11:25 a.m., yesterday's daily activity report was posted. It should be noted that a couple of the "test dates" were incorrect. But substantively:

Change of operator: approximately 203 wells were transferred from Enduro Operating to Cobra Oil & Gas ... more on this later. 

One can find permits/wells in North Dakota operated by Cobra Oil & Gas at this link.

From PLS a year ago: 

Enduro signed a $45 million stalking horse PSA with Cobra Oil & Gas Corp. for the sale of long-lived conventional Madison waterflood assets in the Williston and Big Horn Basins in North Dakota. Enduro entered North Dakota in mid-2012 with its acquisition of Ward Williston Oil Company assets. The Ward Williston assets consisted of 162 wells on about 30,000 net acres mostly HBP acres in Renville, Bottineau and Burke counties. Wichita Falls, TX-based Cobra......

Enduro filed for bankruptcy about a year ago. Link here. 

Bloomberg here on Cobra.

Pretty good story at the Ft Worth Star-Telegram.

Enduro Resource Partners, an oil and natural gas exploration company founded in 2010 by the prominent Fort Worth father-and-son team Jon Brumley and Jonny Brumley, has filed for bankruptcy reorganization as the company prepares to sell its holdings in six states.

The company has been "undermined by persistently low oil and gas prices during the past several years," Kimberly Weimer, Enduro's chief financial officer, said in the documents, filed in Delaware Tuesday. Enduro's debt, she said, "became insurmountable."

Enduro has oil and gas properties in Texas, North Dakota, Louisiana, New Mexico, Wyoming and Montana.

Enduro sank $26 million more into the company in 2016, but it wasn't enough. The company was unable to restructure its debt.

By September 2017, Enduro realized it wouldn't be able to pay $208.7 million owed to Bank of America by March 30 of this year. It also owes $141.2 million to Wilmington Trust.

The company will continue to operate as it sheds its assets. The petition includes five Enduro subsidiaries and affiliates. It does not include Enduro Royalty Trust, a publicly traded Delaware trust formed in 2011.

In September 2017, Enduro sold some of its oil and gas properties in the Permian Basin in Texas and New Mexico for $49.1 million. In January, the company started the sale process. The properties are divided into four packages. Enduro has already secured stalking horse bidders for three of those packages. Those bids would bring $96.6 million.

Read more here: https://www.star-telegram.com/news/busine/article211327564.html#storylink=cpy

Read more here: https://www.star-telegram.com/news/business/article211327564.html#storylink=c ************************

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Atmospheric CO2

Link here.

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The Book Page

The imaginary number, i, has always fascinated me. I was talking to an aeronautical engineer some years ago who was working on solutions for both Airbus and Boeing, which was interesting by itself. This aeronautical engineer always thought it was funny that airplanes would not fly were it not for the imaginary number, i, that keeps popping up in equations.

From Genius: The Life and Science of Richard Feynman, James Gleick, c. 1992, page 174:

For Feynman, thinking in his spare time about the pure theory of particls and light, diffusion dovetailed peculiarly with quantum mechanics. The traditional diffusion equation bore a family resemblance to the standard Schrödinger equation; the crucial difference lay in a single exponent, where the quantum mechanical version was an imaginary factor, i. Lacking that i, diffusion was motion without inertia, motion without momentum.

Individual molecules of perfume carry inertia, but their aggregate wafting through air, the sum of innumerable random collisions, does not. With the i, quantum mechanics could incorporate inertia, a particle's memory of its past velocity. The imaginary factor in the exponent mingled velocity and time in the necessary way. In a sense, quantum mechanics was diffusion in imaginary time.

The importance of diffusion? When developing the atomic bomb, from page 172:

The calculation of critical mass quickly became more or less than a calculation of diffusion -- the diffusion of neutrons through a strange, radioactive minefield, where now a collision might mean more than a glancing, billiard-ball change of direction. A neutron might be captured, absorbed. And it might trigger a fission event that would give birth to new neutrons. 

By definition, at critical mass the creation of neutrons would exactly balance the loss of neutrons through absorption (or through leakage beyond the container boundaries).

Pacific Northwest, The Kennedys Are Booking Their Flights Now: Snow Apocalypse This Weekend -- February 7, 2019

This is a once-in-a-lifetime for the Kennedy grandchildren to see snow.

Link here.

“What is forecast to occur late Friday and this weekend is absolutely classic,” says Mass. We’re looking at “one of the greatest snow events in decades.”

Other quotes from the linked article:

Puget Sound region could be blanketed under 18-24 inches (45 to 60 cm) of snow by the the middle of next week, says expert.

“You might stock up on food before noon on Friday. “I certainly am.”

“There is going to be a major snow event over much of the Pacific Northwest starting late Friday and continuing into the weekend,” warns Cliff Mass, a professor of Atmospheric Sciences at the University of Washington.

Low pressure centered at the southwest corner of the state will pull cold air down from Canada while pushing moist air up into the atmosphere, creating what Mass calls a “perfect snowstorm situation.”

Once the storm begins, says Mass, snowfall will be “extraordinary”, with up to 8 inches over Puget Sound within 24 hours.

But then ...

A second storm starting Monday could leave the Puget Sound region under an 18- to 24-inch blanket of snow, says Mass.  “Unbelievable.” A “snow apocalypse.”

 The global warmists predicted this years ago.

The WeatherChannel forecast? Perhaps not so much snow, although they did post a winter storm watch for this weekend, although it's hard to read:

Potpourri -- If You Skip This Page, You Won't Miss Anything -- February 7, 2019; Tesla -- Now They Tell Us

For the archives.

A great link for graphics.

Which word in this group of three does not belong: dilbit; railbit; rarebit. For answer, see this post.

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US Growth Centers

This happened to pop up in discussion with a reader, after stories of socialism in the US. We were discussing what regions, what cities would see an increase in population over the next twenty years. Here were my thoughts:

1. Atlanta, GA, surprises me. Continues to grow and grow and grow.

2. North Carolina is huge growth center.

3. New York wealthy migrate to Florida.

4. Texas: huge. I think that's the real sleeper but I am very, very biased. Mexico will be huge driver for Hispanic growth in Texas.

5. Utah will do very, very well.

Let's see what others have to say:

• Forbes, where manufacturing is thriving in 2018. 
• Brookings, March 3, 2017.

Spot on! See my list above and compare to map below:

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Census

This is a really, really cool map.

The link.

When you click on the link, a black-and-white county map of the US will pop up. Across the top, the very last box (toggle US cities) is not highlighted. Be sure to highlight that one.

Put your cursor on any county, say Williams County, North Dakota, click and get the data for county migration. There are numerous ways to toggle; numerous boxes for additional data. 

To get a quick idea of what's going on:

• put your cursor on Cass County (Fargo), ND
• click on Cass County (Fargo), ND
• you will notice that essentially the whole state is moving to Fargo! LOL!
• and, in fact, practically the whole state of Minnesota is moving to Fargo
• now you know why Fargo keeps growing 
• but also look at the net migration from Fargo to Williston 
• also, look at the net migration from Fargo, ND, to Phoenix!
• this could go on all day 

New York City? The entire city is moving to Florida (but not to Miami).

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Range Cut By Up To 40% When It Gets Cold

Link here.

But it's worse: battery storage for windmills, solar? Not going to work across much of the US.

Natural Gas Draw -- Weekly Data -- February 7, 2019

Updates

February 10, 2019: see first comment --

While the EIA reports that "total working gas is within the five-year historical range", that's because the 5-year reference period includes 2014, which saw multiple outbreaks of the polar vortex, with a withdrawal of 990 billion cubic feet over 4 weeks in February that helped drive that year's natural gas supplies to the lowest on record by the end of March...

We certainly don't expect to approach that kind of cold anymore this year, but the temperatures after January of last year were not exceptional, and yet we still approached the current heating season with our natural gas supplies at the lowest level in 15 years...

Since our natural gas supplies are 6.4% below those of a year ago as of this week, it will take smaller withdrawals through the remainder of this winter and/or larger inventory building this spring and fall to avoid entering the winter of 2020 in the same or worse shape than we entered this one...

That fact isn't lost on natural gas traders, who are still pricing natural gas for January 2020 delivery more than 15% higher than the price of the front month contract for natural gas today...

Later, 12:44 p.m. CT: this is an epiphany for me. Years ago it was an epiphany for me when I realizd the importance of the difference between light oil and heavy oil (99% of Americans have no clue).

Now, a second epiphany. The EIA graphic on natural gas, to some extent is irrelevant. What is important with regard to natural gas is "regional," not national.

See this post: ConEd may run out of natural gas. Has announced a moratorium on new natural gas hook-ups in Westchester County, NYC.

Original Post

Linked here.

We're through the worse. Everything held. A new five-year graph will evolve, shifted downward. A fascinating year, to say the least.

This Looks Like The End Of Fracking In Great Britain -- February 7, 2019

From twitter:

The link to the story is here.

For a more-friendly, no-paywall site, click here:

The shale gas firm Cuadrilla has said commercial fracking cannot go ahead in the UK unless rules on minor earthquakes are relaxed, after admitting it had only been able to frack a tiny section of its gas well near Blackpool because of seismicity regulations.

The company became the first to frack in the UK for years when it started operations last October at its Preston New Road site but was repeatedly forced to pause work for causing tremors that breached a 0.5-magnitude limit.

In a statement on Wednesday, the company revealed that less than 5% of the well had been fracked, or only two of the 41 so-called fracking stages along the well.

Wow, how long have they been fracking this well. They frack one stage, measure the seismic response; if it exceeds ridiculously low limits, they must stop drilling until seismic activity returns to baseline. They they wait 48 hours and frack the next stage. Repeat. Ad nauseum.

I think they've been drilling this wells since 2012. The article says they began operations last October at this site, but I've reading about Caudrilla and fracking and seismic activity since at least 2012.

For more on Cuadrilla, search at the blog site.

2017 North Dakota Crude Oil Production By Formation

Link at this site.

US Imports Of Heavy Sour Crude Oils -- RBN Energy -- February 7, 2019

From RBN Energy, February 7, 2019:

February 7, 2019, T+36, Day 14 Of Open Border Negotiations -- Nothing About The Bakken

Pocahontas says there will be more: apparently there are multiple documents out there with her Native American heritage notated. I assume it was on every college, law school, and state bar registration application.


What is it about Virginia that generates so much craziness:

Meanwhile, this: Gucci and late-night TV hosts --

But if nothing else, the Virginia Dems have deflected the fourth-trimester-abortion issue.

Seven Wells Coming Off Confidential List Today -- February 7, 2019

NDIC daily activity report: for yesterday -- pending -- link here.

Jobs: first time unemployment claims -- 234,000 -- link here:

• previous: 253,000 (surge due to government shutdown)
• forecast: 225,000
• actual: 234,000 (Steve Liesman will be happy)

************************************

Back to the Bakken 

Wells coming off the confidential list today -- Thursday, February 7, 2019: 31 wells for the month; 133 wells for the quarter

• 34615, 937, Oasis, Florence 5303 11-2 2B, Painted Woods, t8/18; cum 93K 12/18;
• 33726, 1,995, CLR, Norway 4-5H1, Fancy Buttes, 11/18; cum 57K 12/18;
• 33462, 1,622, CLR, Omlid 5-19H2, Elidah, t12/18; cum 14K after 12 days;
• 33374, drl, EOG, Liberty 45-1311H, Parshall, t8/18; cum 114K 12/18;
• 33373, drl, EOG, Liberty 44-1311H, Parshall, t8/18; cum 132K 12/18;
• 32924, SI/NC, BR, Renegade 34-15TFH, Sand Creek, no production data,
• 30317, 1,685, Hess, EN-Weyrauch C-154-93-2932H-12, Robinson Lake, t12/18; cum 5K after 4 days;

Active rigs:

$53.26	2/7/2019	02/07/2018	02/07/2017	02/07/2016	02/07/2015
Active Rigs	62	58	40	42	136

RBN Energy: how will the ban on Venezuelan crude affect US refiners? Yesterday I said the ban on Venezuela crude oil will have NO effect on the US (in the big scheme of things -- the refiners will have some challenges, and the price of gasoline might go up slightly -- but overall not a big deal). It will be interesting to see what RBN Energy says.

The U.S. Treasury Department last week announced new sanctions on Petróleos de Venezuela, S.A. (PDVSA), the national oil company of Venezuela, that effectively halts imports of Venezuelan crude oil into the U.S. Given that the Venezuelan crude imported to the U.S. is of the heavy sour variety, which is not produced in large amounts in the U.S. (except for California), certain refineries along the Gulf Coast are left scrambling to find alternative sources of feedstock for their facilities. Today, we evaluate historical crude oil imports from Venezuela, the refineries that are most heavily impacted, and the potential effects of the sanctions on U.S. refiners.

Refineries in Petroleum Administration for Defense District (PADD) 3, which includes the Gulf Coast, processed an average of 9 MMb/d of crude oil in 2018, and of that total, approximately 1.6 MMb/d was of the heavy sour variety. Of the heavy sour portion, ~420 Mb/d came from Venezuela. Some may wonder how a country that supplies less than 5% of PADD 3’s crude slate could cause industry headaches; today, we’ll explain why.

Wow, the RBN Energy analysis comes to the very same conclusion to which I came:

What does all this mean? Substituting crude oils on short notice, especially heavy grades that are generally less fungible (from a quality standpoint) and likely already under contract to other buyers, is a tricky process. It requires linear program (LP) modeling in conjunction with commercial intelligence to determine the “next best” grade(s) to purchase, which of course depends on each refinery’s specific configuration. Assuming Gulf Coast refiners can’t increase imports of Canadian and Mexican crude oils by meaningful amounts (due to Canadian delivery constraints and Mexican production declines), coking refiners there will be scrambling to get their hands on alternative heavy crude oil streams. Grades closer to home in South America are a potential — albeit limited — source, so we’ll likely see some increases in imports from the Middle East and Russia. With this supply crunch, the light-heavy differential along the Texas and Louisiana coast should remain narrow (in other words, heavy crude oil stays relatively expensive) and also have a domino effect on medium sour grades (e.g. Mars), as we’ve already seen. Refiners will adapt, but processing profits may take a hit in the near term — especially for refineries highly dependent on Venezuelan grades. Things may change as we get closer to January 2020, when IMO 2020 takes effect. We’ll continue to track this and provide an update when appropriate.

Be cognizant of railbit and dilbit.

Nice graphic from RBN Energy at this post.