No Matter How Bad Your Day Was, Probably Not As Bad As Sam's -- Friday -- November 17, 2023

Locator: 46090ALTMAN.

Sam Altman, update.

************************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: 36.

WTI: $75.80. Up almost 4%.

OPEC: said to be considering another cut of one million bopd. Just between you and me and the bedpost, I never thought that in 2023 we would see such a glut of oil and the glut was not coming from OPEC. All those years of "peak oil" concerns -- wow -- truly amazing. 

Coal: and coal use continues to grow, simply because it is so inexpensive. One just gets the feeling that without strong personalities to "push" green energy (like Algore, John Kerry, German leadership, crazy Greta, etc) the "green" energy push will simply die on the vine. 

The question becomes: where does all that electricity come from required by EVs, and data centers? Natural gas.

One new permit, #40345:

• Operator: Whiting
• Field: Sanish (Mountrail)
• Comments:
• Whiting has a permit for a Sanish Bay E Federal well, lot 4, section 3-152-92; 
• to be sitedd 252 FNL and 279 FWL

Four permits canceled:

• CLR: two Ravin permits, McKenzie County; and two Sodbuster permits, Williams County;

BRK-B Down Today -- November 17, 2023

Locator: 46089BRK.

Ticker BRK-B: down $1 today when oil surged, and yet AAPL down only two cents at the close.

Ticker AAPL: closed down two cents today.

MSFT: down a little less than 2% at the close and into the after-market.

Sam Altman, OpenAI, ChatGPT, MSFT -- November 17, 2023

Locator: 46088ALTMAN.

This will be sorted out later.

Close relationship between MSFT and ChatGPT, the latter's parent company OpenAI, CEO Sam Altman.

The board came up with something concerning and fired him. The companyu's chief technology officer will serve as interim CEO starting today, Friday: Mira Murati.

ChatGPT "run" by Sam Altman.

Minutes ago, just before COB of business, it was announced that Sam Altman was fired.

MSFT immediately fell 2%.

Story reported in The Hollywoo Reporter. 

OpenAI had a multi-billion-dollar investment from Microsoft.

Many, many dots to connect, including robotaxi company, Cruise, which recently paused its operations pending an internal investigation into its safety processes. 

And, how will this effect Nvidia which reports next week.

Nvidia blades are the blades to support generative AI.

This is a huge story for tech's magnificent seven -- we now have to see how this plays out over the weekend and into Nvidia's eaarnings next week.

NVDA ticker right now: slightly red today but no related YET to the Sam Altman announcement.

CNBC doesn't have the answer yet. 

Now it comes out: rumors in the tech world that this might not have been unexpected.

"Maybe not shocking but overwhelming news."

The president of the board and co-founder of the company (Greg) was also removed from the board? Greg was not named interim CEO. Corporate problem?  Personal problem involving Altman and Greg privy to information and did not report it to the board? All rumors / extemporaneous statements from taking heads on CNBC.

Not all of this may be accurate; done on the fly.

The Verge and other tech sources will follow the story. At The Verge be sure to follow social comments.

The Market -- November 17, 2023

Locator: 46087INV.

The last few posts were done quickly, not proofread, and need to be cleaned up. I will take care of those housekeeping chores later.

The market: getting closer and closer to all major indices turning green. [Later: all major indices inch into the green. Oil is also up nicely.] AAPL is also in positive territory.

The market: with workers at Ford and Stellantis signing new contract, all three major auto manufacturers now have contracts with the UAW. That was easy.

The market: President Biden signed the continuing resolution, a government shutdown has been averted for two more months.

The market: earlier I posted my "personal investing" thoughts, and have now updated what I bought today. I sold nothing. You can see the update at the earlier post.

************************
The Book Page

I continue to read The History of Jews In America. 

New book this week: Richard III: England's Most Controversial King, Chris Skidmore, c. 2017.

EU Zone Disinflation -- November 17, 2023

Locator: 46086ECON.

GDPNow: link here.

Stagflation.

As a reminder, "stagflation" is a British (more accurately, English) term used loosely in America.

Stagflation has three components:

• increasing unemployment (the main concern for the UK Labour governments)
• declining growth in GDP — although that depends a bit on one’s interpretation of “declining”
• increasing inflation

For the record, as of today, not one of those three components accurately describes the US economy.

*************************
US Productivity and Labor Costs

This monthly report received almost no attention by mainstream business outlets.

Link here.

***************************
EU Inflation

It may be time for folks to re-visit the definitions of "deflation" (really, really bad) and "disinflation) ("okay").

Whatever.

EU zone inflation figures:

• October, most recent: 2.9%
• last month, September: 4.3%

This mirrors what is being reported in the UK.

Spending in the UK: 28% greater in October, 2023, than it was in 2018.

Here in the US, the conversation is pivoting from inflation to disinflation and OMG, deflation (WMT CEO).

GS: surprised by high demand for oil, but that's another story. Will catch up with that later, if I find the story.

Disney Park Prices In Perspective -- November 17, 2023

Locator: 46085DISNEY.

For those folks who suggest "Disneyland" and/or "Disneyworld" are too expensive.

Two words: Taylor Swift.

But here's another great example.

The F1 race in Las Vegas.

The regular / usual average price for a Las Vegas room on the strip where the race will be held: $900 / room per night. For the race, those same rooms are going for $2,000 / night, and most folks will stay two nights, maybe three nights.

In addition, the admission price for the fan area -- bleacher seats, food, etc., -- $500 / person.

Spacing For The CLR North Tarentaise Federal Wells -- November 17, 2023

Locator: 46084CLRTARENTAIS.

See this post for background; and at that link, one can follow another link to where these wells are tracked.

Planning diagram for the CLR North Tarentaise Federal wells.

The spacing unit per the application:

Updating The CLR North Tarentais Federal Wells In Elm Creek -- November 17, 2023

Locator: 46083CLRTARENTAIS.

Wow, wow, I got it figured out. LOL.

The CLR North Tarentaise wells are starting to come off the confidential list. From the NDIC as posted earlier:

Sunday, November 19, 2023: 125 for the month; 125 for the quarter, 695 for the year
39777, conf, CLR, North Tarentaise Federal 7-18H1, tracked here.

Saturday, November 18, 2023: 124 for the month; 124 for the quarter, 694 for the year
39778, conf, CLR, North Tarentaise Federal 8-18HSL,
39079, conf, Hess, RS-State D-155-92-0203H-8,
23676, conf, EMEP Operating, Charles Davis 1-4-9H-142-94,

Friday, November 17, 2023: 121 for the month; 121 for the quarter, 691 for the year
39837, conf, CLR, North Tarentaise Federal 9-18HSL2, 

These wells are tracked here.

I've updated the post.

The data is starting to be reported by the NDIC.

And here it is. My update is correct. The NDIC scout ticket shows the lateral running north:

 

Coal -- Energy -- November 17, 2023

Locator: 46082COAL.

Coal. Link here.

China - Taiwan: if one wants to join the discussion, one needs to read the history of China - Taiwan and the agreement during / after WWII.

Lost In Translation -- November 17, 2023

Locator: 46081ECON.

Big international story today? Being reported everywhere:

Translation: the gap between the US and the EU is widening. And not by a small amount.

Finishing up this week:

Since 1996: one might assume Burlington Northern could be very similar to UNP.

Back To The Bakken -- November 17, 2023

Locator: 46080B.

Bakken gas update: ONEOK.

Production by play: link here.

Cushing: despite low Cushing stocks, we’ve slipped into a  contango situation.

Saudi: trying to maintain price.

US LNG exports hit new record: link here.

WTI: $73.85.

Sunday, November 19, 2023: 125 for the month; 125 for the quarter, 695 for the year
39777, conf, CLR, North Tarentaise Federal 7-18H1, tracked here.

Saturday, November 18, 2023: 124 for the month; 124 for the quarter, 694 for the year
39778, conf, CLR, North Tarentaise Federal 8-18HSL,
39079, conf, Hess, RS-State D-155-92-0203H-8,
23676, conf, EMEP Operating, Charles Davis 1-4-9H-142-94,

Friday, November 17, 2023: 121 for the month; 121 for the quarter, 691 for the year
39837, conf, CLR, North Tarentaise Federal 9-18HSL2,

RBN Energy: renewable naphtha likely to play increasing role in decarbonization efforts.

The push to decarbonize frequently focuses on the transportation sector, which is responsible for the largest share of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. That has led to increased blending of ethanol into gasoline and the development of several alternative fuels, most notably renewable diesel (RD) and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). But as production of those two fuels accelerates, an often-overlooked byproduct of their creation is beginning to attract more attention: renewable naphtha. In today’s RBN blog, we explain the similarities and differences between traditional naphtha and renewable naphtha, look at how renewable naphtha is produced, and show how it can be used to help refiners, petrochemical companies and hydrogen producers meet their sustainability goals and reduce the carbon intensity (CI) of their products.

Let’s start with the basics. Traditional naphtha is derived from the distillation of crude oil or from the separation of NGLs in a fractionation plant. (The heaviest cut produced from NGL fractionation is typically referred to as natural gasoline and is very similar to the light naphtha produced from crude oil at refineries.) It is most often used in gasoline blending and as a petrochemical feedstock in the production of plastics. On the refinery side of things, naphtha can be directly blended into gasoline, although it typically has low octane and, in the case of light naphtha, high vapor pressure, which limits the amount that can be blended directly into gasoline. Still, light naphtha and heavy naphtha can be sent to a refinery’s isomerization or naphtha reforming units before blending to boost octane, increasing its value as a gasoline blendstock. On the petchem side, it can be used as a feedstock in steam crackers to make ethylene and, ultimately, plastics. Light naphtha has high paraffin levels, which is preferred because it provides better yields than other options; it has varying degrees of sulfur and other impurities. (Naphtha competes with propane and butane as a petrochemical feedstock.)

My Favorite Chart Updated -- November 17, 2023

Locator: 46079CHART.

Note: see comments, this link.

My favorite chart: update posted overnight. Break in trend. This is why this chart is my favorite chart.

 

Seasonal flu, update: link here -- how this plays out will speak volumes this year -- trending now -- masks off -- vaccinations plummeting .... all outpatient influenza-like illness visits ---

Covid: some states appear to be no longer reporting Covid cases (I'm speaking to you, Oregon). North Dakota: cases increasing, but no deaths.

Friday — November 17, 2023

Locator: 46078HEADLINES. 

My favorite chart: update posted overnight. Break in trend. This is why this chart is my favorite chart. Posted on blog.

Housing starts: better than expected.

Ten-year dropping: under 4.5%.

Technology, personal: amazing. Particularly the iPad. Inside a case: a must-have.

Taylor Swift: contributed over $8.5 billion to US economy in 3Q23. 

• Next week, Monday, November 20, 2023: Kelce vs Kelce -- KC Chiefs vs Philadelphia Eagles.

Dow, pre-market: up strong at 5:00 a.m. ET.

Top investment story past 48 hours, re-posting: QCOM.

Personal investing: undecided so far today. At the moment, all major indices green. 

Pre-market trading. Considering: BA, AAPL, NVDA, WMT. ENB. MSFT. GLNCY. PXD. RACE. QCOM. ABBV. SCCO. Will buy no more than three of those being considered. Most unlikely, GLNCY, because it would be a new position but very interesting. [Later: bought MSFT, RACE, and SCCO.]

Must-read: Ken Fisher’s top 12 holdings. He’s like me, also. He’s serious about making money. Only he’s much more successful doing it. It’s noteworthy which one stock is not on the list of top twelve.

Stock in the news: MCD. Holy mackerel, lots of news affecting MCD.

Up almost $6 yesterday. Raising dividend almost 10%. Let’s assume you have only one stock: MCD. Let’s assume your only income is the MCD income and you make $100,000 per annum on this dividend. You just got a 10% raise in your annual income, taxed less than income from actual working. And indications are that this dividend acceleration will continue. History. $1.67, ex-date, November 30, 2023. Payable mid-month December.

Inflation: update for investors. In the big scheme of things, it was transitory.

What recession? Consumers still have plenty to spend. Barron’s. An incredibly long article. 

Tea leaves: holiday spending will be much more robust than folks currently think. Key data point: everyone has a job. Second key data point: retailers will market (advertise) heavily. Third data point: the Fed won’t be the Grinch this year. Watch luxury car sales surge. Regional banks may be in better shape going forward with the Fed on pause.

IRA for rural, red America: link here.

D. R. Horton: don’t know if this is a story or an ad. Looks like an ad. Caught my attention due to builder’s success in Texas..

Volvo shares plunge: down 14% as Chinese owner Greeley sells off stock. This EV fad is an unmitigated disaster.

CHPT: recently volatile, but one-year and five-year charts, horrendous.

Enbridge: more solar.

Wind: key supplier of wind turbine blades faces big losses.

Its problems are both industry-related and self-inflicted. Sales are on track to fall 40% this year because wind turbine installations have slowed in key markets. Quality problems forced TPI (ticker: TPIC) to repair wind blades it had already sold, leading to tens of millions of dollars worth of expected warranty charges. A customer bankruptcy shaved nearly $23 million off adjusted earnings. 

The stock, which peaked above $70 in 2021, has cratered 70% this year and now trades for $2.56. 

The bond market is also flashing warning signs. A TPI bond due in 2028 is trading for 43 cents on the dollar, with a 28% yield. “Certainly, liquidity is concerning,” said Evercore analyst James West.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.  

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.