Texas Oil Revolution -- May 25, 2021

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Something

CLR's Norway Wells

Fancy Buttes: Fancy Buttes is literally two sections big -- that's it -- two sections. It's squeezed in between Dimmick Lake and Johnson Corner. I guess it would be Tier 1 but I've never thought much about it. But, it's so typical of the Bakken. These are mediocre to good wells, but for the mom-and-pop mineral owners, they are outstanding. So much going on. I just don't have time to write about all of this, but these wells really are amazing, considering. Good for CLR. 

The wells:

• 34197, 2,086, Norway 9-5H2, Fancy Buttes, t11/18; cum 253K 9/21;
• 34198, 2,222, Norway 8-5H, Fancy Buttes, t11/18; cum 356K 9/21;
  
• 34199, 1,981, Norway 7-5H1, Fancy Buttes, t10/18; cum 251K 9/21;
• 34200, 2,236, Norway 6-5H2, Fancy Buttes, t11/18; cum 307K 2/20; off line; back on line 4/2; cum 315K 9/21;
  

• 33725, 1.817, Norway 5-5H, Fancy Buttes, t10/18; cum 110K 2/20; off line; back on line, 5/21; cum 121K 9/21;
  
• 33726, 1.995, Norway 4-5H1, Fancy Buttes, t11/18; cum 308K 2/20; off line; back on line, 5/21; cum 321K 9/21;
  
• 33727, 2,232, Norway 3-5H, Fancy Buttes, t11/18; cum 308K 1/20; off line; back on line, 5/21; cum 333K 9/21;
  
• 33728, A/IA/2,127, Norway 2-5H2, Fancy Buttes, t11/18; cum 182K 1/20; off line; intermittent production; off line; back on line; see update here; cum 190K 1/22;
  

• 19380, 497, Norway 1-5H, Fancy Buttes, t3/11; cum 340K 1/20; off line; back on line 5/21; then off line again, 9/21; cum 363K 8/21; a beautiful well;
  

• 37554, loc/NC--> loc/A, Norway 10-5HSL1, Dimmick Lake, first production, 6/21; t--; cum 74K 9/21;
  
• 37555, loc/NC--> loc/A, Norway 11-5H, Fancy Buttes, first production, 6/21; t--; cum 95K 9/21;
  
• 37556, loc/NC--> loc/A, Norway 12-5H2, Fancy Buttes, first production, 5/21; t--; cum 102K 9/21;
  
• 37557, loc/NC--> loc/A, Norway 13-5H, Fancy Buttes, first produciton, 5/21; t--; cum 90K 9/21;
  

Standing Rock IT Director, Contractor Indicted On Bribery Charges -- Sources -- May 25, 2021

A reader alerted me to this story. A huge "thank you." I never would have seen it. 

Link here.

A federal grand jury has indicted the director of the Standing Rock Sioux Tribe’s information technology department and an IT services contractor on three counts of bribery.

The May 12 indictment alleges Sven Schreiber accepted bribes of $5,000 or more twice in 2017 and once in 2019. He was arrested in North Dakota on a warrant issued in the U.S. District of South Dakota. The reservation straddles the Dakotas border. Officials ordered Schreiber to surrender his Swiss passport.

Schreiber became director of the IT department in 2015. He served as the tribe’s primary contact with outside vendors on the department’s bids, contracts and agreements, the indictment states. He was the point of contact with Arnaldo Piccinelli, who is listed on the LinkedIn professional networking site as the senior Java software engineer for the Florida-based company Hexagon Code Inc., which provided IT services to the tribe. The tribe made payments by check to Hexagon or Piccinelli directly at Schreiber’s direction, the document states.

Memo to self: file under "Karma." 

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Summer!

EOG With First Permits In The Bakken So Far In Calendar Year 2021 -- May 25, 2021

These are the first EOG permits so far in calendar year 2021 in the Bakken.

One has to ask why? 

Note the chronologic numbers (in purple). We talked about this years ago during the early days of the boom. 

LR = "long reach"; longer than the standard two-section horizontal; generally three sections; although a couple may go 3.5 sections so as not to leave orphaned oil behind;

Two new permits, #38324 - #38325, inclusive:

• Operator: EOG
• Field: Parshall (Mountrail)
• Comments: EOG has permits for two Liberty LR wells, both sited in NENW 23-151-91
• one will be sited 750' FNL and 2380 FWL; Liberty LR 119-2320H, 3.5-mile-lateral
  
• the other will be sited 700' FNL and 2380 ' FWL; Liberty LR 56-2317H, 3.5-mile-lateral; section line well;
  

Currently sited in that section:

• 19720, 510, EOG, Liberty LR 14-23H, Parshall, t4/11; cum 310K 3/21;

• 30593, loc, EOG, Liberty LR 29-2321H, Parshall, 3.0-mile-lateral;
• 30594, loc, EOG, Liberty LR 108-2321H, Parshall, 3.0-mile-lateral;
• 30595, loc, EOG, Liberty LR 30-2321H, Parshall, 3.0-mile-lateral;

• 19721, 1,063, EOG, Liberty LR 19-23H, Parshall, t3/11; cum 404K 3/21; 3.0-mile-lateral;
• 18971, 894, EOG, Liberty LR 09-23H, Parshall, t9/10; cum 258K 3/21; spacing: E2 (half section) (320 acres)
  

The graphics;

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Summer Fun

EOG With Two New Permits; Seven Permits Renewed; Four DUCs Reported As Completed -- May 25, 2021

Active rigs (one of the active rigs = SWD):

$65.89	5/25/2021	05/25/2020	05/25/2019	05/25/2018	05/25/2017
Active Rigs	19	14	65	65	50

Operators with active oi and gas rigs:

• CLR (5): Gordon Federal, Gale, Jensen, Pasadena Federal, Harrisburg,
• MRO (3): Jake, Goddard USA, Evans
• Ovintiv (2): Rolfsrud, Rolfsrud
• Rimrock: FBIR Guyblackhawk
• Enerplus: Lynx,
• Iron Oil Operating: Antelope,
• Petro-Hunt: Jorgenson
• Whiting: Lacey
• Oasis: Cliff Federal
• Crescent Point Energy: CPEUSC Burgess,
• Hess: GO-Braaten

Two new permits, #38324 - #38235, inclusive:

• Operator: EOG
• Field: Parshall (Mountrail)
• Comments: EOG has permits for two Liberty LR wells, both sited in NENW 23-151-91
• one will be sited 750' FNL and 2380 FWL;
• the other will be sited 700' FNL and 2380 ' FWL

Seven permits renewed:

• BR (3): three Patton permits in Dunn County;
• Whiting (2): two Pennington permits in Mountrail County;
• WPX: a Charles Blackhawk permit in Dunn County;
• Hess: a BB-State A permit in McKenzie County;

Four producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 35086, drl/A, CLR, Morris 10-26H2, Oakdale, no production data, TD: 19,000';
• 35085, drl/A, CLR, Morris 9-26H, Oakdale, no production data, TD: 18,898';
• 35087, drl/A, CLR, Morris 11-26H, Oakdale, no production data, TD: 18,962';
• 37557, loc/A, CLR, Norway 13-5H, Fancy Buttes, no production data, TD: 21,328'

Note: the CLR Morris wells are tracked here. 

Less Than One Million Vaccinations Reported In Most Recent 24-Hour Period -- May 25, 2021

CDC data here. 

Column 6: number of vaccinations given in previous 24 hours, CDC data.

Column 6 is derived from delta, column 3. 

Most recent 24-hour period, report dated Tuesday, May 25, 2021: only 897,972 doses administered. 

		Total Doses Administered	Number of People Receiving At Least One Dose	Fully Vaccinated	Delta: Difference in daily doses from previous day	Percent (B+C)/A	Percent Of Americans Considered Fully Vaccinated
Tuesday	May 25, 2021	287,788,872	164,378,258	131,078,608	897,972	102.66%	51.14%
Monday	May 24, 2021	286,890,900	163,907,827	130,615,797	1,170,314	102.66%	50.96%
Sunday	May 23, 2021	285,720,586	163,309,414	130,014,175	1,779,363	102.66%	50.72%
Saturday	May 22, 2021	283,941,223	162,470,794	129,006,463	2,345,872	102.65%	50.33%
Friday	May 21, 2021	281,595,351	161,278,336	127,778,250	2,198,101	102.65%	49.85%
Thursday	May 20, 2021	279,397,250	160,177,820	126,605,166	2,107,077	102.64%	49.39%
Wednesday	May 19, 2021	277,290,173	159,174,963	125,453,423	1,754,966	102.65%	48.94%
Tuesday	May 18, 2021	275,535,207	158,365,411	124,455,693	2,609,796	102.64%	48.55%
Monday	May 17, 2021	272,925,411	157,132,234	122,999,721	-619,796	102.64%	47.99%
Sunday	May 16, 2021	273,545,207	157,485,596	123,282,685	2,712,865	102.64%	48.10%
Saturday	May 15, 2021	270,832,342	156,217,367	121,768,268	2,393,676	102.64%	47.51%
Friday	May 14, 2021	268,438,666	155,251,852	120,258,637	1,842,180	102.63%	46.92%
Thursday	May 13, 2021	266,596,486	154,624,231	118,987,308	1,915,642	102.63%	46.42%
Wednesday	May 12, 2021	264,680,844	153,986,312	117,647,439	1,548,283	102.63%	45.90%
Tuesday	May 11, 2021	263,132,561	153,448,316	116,576,359	1,533,180	102.62%	45.48%
Monday	May 10, 2021	261,599,381	152,819,904	115,530,780	1,882,392	102.58%	45.07%
Sunday	May 9, 2021	259,716,989	152,116,936	114,258,244	2,369,784	102.56%	44.58%
Saturday	May 8, 2021	257,347,205	151,315,505	112,626,771	2,567,872	102.56%	43.94%
Friday	May 7, 2021	254,779,333	150,416,559	110,874,920	2,805,581	102.56%	43.26%

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BLM

Oil & Gas: Disrupted By Technology, But Many Investors & Companies Still Don't 'Get It' -- Contributor -- SeekingAlpha -- May 25, 2021

Link here.

Archived.

Keeping America Great -- May 25, 2021

Re-posting.

Keeping America great. This has to be frustrating for "the Squad" -- the US just keeps getting better and better (if one ignores what is going on in East St Louis, downtown Minneapolis, and Portland, OR, in general). In the last twenty-four hours, three stories highlighting how far the US has come:

• semiconductor chips: there's a shortage right now but it's temporary and the US will come out of this stronger than ever;
• apparently the US -- not France -- now leads the global fashion industry;
• and then agriculture -- Deere, Caterpillar both with incredibly earnings and guidance and now Cargill -- barreling toward its most profitable year ever. The $4.3 billion in net income in the first nine months of its 2021 fiscal year already surpasses its best ever annual profit. 

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The Good Ol' Days

Notes From All Over -- The 6:00 A.M. Portland, Oregon, Edition -- May 25, 2021

Merger mania: this from "WAR52" -- perhaps the most interesting observer over at Twitter. When he posts, I "listen." See replies here:

Nordstream 2: I'm too bored to talk about it now, but I will post this now for the "time-date" stamp: "the Merkel Markup."

Covid-19: The other day I mentioned that my data suggests that 50.3% of all Americans over the age of 16 are now fully vaccinated. The LA Times is now reporting that "half of Los Angeles County residents 16 and older are now fully vaccinated against Covid-19." With 15% to 30% having naturally-acquired immunity, it's hard to argue that herd immunity does not exist in southern California.

Restaurants in Chicago: can open but must have "vaccinated zones." Not a good idea. Will backfire. Unvaccinated will soon sport an armband of courage.  

Zones: speaking of zones, over the past few days I've noticed something in north Texas that I had never seen before: the highway system around DFW has a gazillion signs designating "zones." I have no idea what these zones are. They seem to be numbered completely randomly. Then, out at the DFW airport on Saturday, it appears that the zones designated "rider app" zones. If that makes sense. Let's see what google says. I think this may be what it's all about: Tarrant County (Ft Worth, Texas) ZIPZONE. This is quite amazing. Instead of some complicated address for the Uber driver, one simply types in a two-digit zipzone. And it appears each zip zone is ten to twenty feet of linear real estate.

PGA Tournament: most "shocking" scene -- thousands of fans mobbing Phil and Koepke going to the 18th green. And I didn't see anyone wearing a mask. Virtual signaling: post-tournament interview -- the interview stood twelve feet away when interviewing Phil. I assume they were both fully vaccinated.

Ten-year treasury: drops below 1.6%. Amazing.

Jim Cramer: lead story today? Apple. 

FAANGS: add Snowflake. 

SRE: in the news today -- SeekingAlpha --

• Sempra Energy will own 96.4% of Mexican counterpart IEnova after settling the exchange offer launched last month. 
• The company says it achieved its target of exceeding 95% ownership of IEnova through the exchange offer, placing it closer to achieving its goal of acquiring the remaining 3.6% interest. 
• Sempra's common stock will begin trading on the Mexican Stock Exchange on May 28 while continuing to trade on the New York Stock Exchange. 
• Sempra said last November it would work with IEnova on the proposed Energia Costa Azul liquefied natural gas export facility in northwestern Mexico.

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Road Trip!

Los tres amigos!

No Wells Coming Off Confidential -- May 25, 2021

Active rigs:

$66.11	5/25/2021	05/25/2020	05/25/2019	05/25/2018	05/25/2017
Active Rigs	19	14	65	65	50

No wells coming off the confidential list. 

RBN Energy: LNG's role in decarbonizing the shipping industry, part 2. 

IMO 2020, the mandate that ships plying most international waters slash their sulfur emissions starting in January of last year, was only another step in the International Maritime Organization’s long-running effort to ratchet down the shipping industry’s environmental impact. 

The group’s next focus, as you might expect, is reducing shippers’ carbon footprint — while no specific rules have been set, the IMO in 2018 laid out the goal of cutting ships’ carbon dioxide emissions by 40% from their 2008 levels by 2030. One way to move toward that goal would be fueling more ships with LNG, which emits 20-25% less CO₂ than very low sulfur fuel oil. But as we discuss in today’s blog, shippers could augment those emission reductions by moving from the LNG trade’s traditional point-to-point model to optimization through cargo swapping.

Stock To Watch Tomorrow -- May 25, 2021

If earnings beat forecast, watch this stock explode. There are hints that Nvidia could miss forecasts.

Today is Tuesday, May 25, 2021. Nvidia is expected to report earnings tomorrow, Wednesday, May 26, 2021. 

Nvidia announces a four-for-one split late last week and the stock surged 4%, up $25, closed at $624, on the first trading day after the announcement. In pre-market trading, before results known, NVDA is up another 1%; up over $7; and trading at $631. 

Split:

• record date: June 21, 2021
• split date: July 19, 2021
• first trade date for new shares: July 20, 2021

Analyst:

As far as their earnings go, what we're looking at is a potential for a huge quarter for Nvidia, as much as 75% revenue growth for the quarter and as much as 83% on adjusted EPS.

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Others

RIDE: investors can't get out of Lordstown fast enough. 

In February, 2021 -- just weeks ago -- this stock traded for $31. Yesterday it was a $10 stock. In pre-market trading, RIDE is down almost 15%; down $1.37; trading at $8.30.

OKE: will trend toward a 52-week high.

ET: when I was in middle school, my dad's advice when it came to investing -- "6-6-6." A company whose shares trade for $6; have a dividend of 6%; and, sport a P/E of 6. LOL. Look at ET:

• trades at $10
• a dividend that pays 6%
• a P/E of 8

It would be a challenge to find a "better" example of my dad's "6-6-6" rule. One drawback for some: it's an MLP.

DAPL: Is The EIS Even Required Any More? Has The EIS Become Moot? -- May 25, 2021

This story is tracked elsewhere.

From SeekingAlpha this morning: bombshell if I'm reading this correctly -- the lack of action by the US Army Corps of Engineers suggests to one contributor to SeekingAlpha that the EPA reassessment may not be needed, assuming I am reading this correctly.  

Read the fourth bullet closely:

• DAPL can continue to ship oil.
• The court basically admitted that the law limited the options while raising an extremely high bar for an injunction.
• The Army Corps has refused to rule on the trespass of the pipeline.
• The lack of the Corps' action may result in an outgrant without the necessary NEPA requirements.
• Plaintiffs now have a very limited (if any) set of options.
• This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Oil & Gas Value Research. 

At the linked article, note the incredible forest in the Bakken. I had no idea. 

Back to the EIS issue, from the liked article:

The problem here is that the EIS is due to be completed by March, so there is not much time and the completion of the EIS may make such a process moot. This is something the plaintiff attorneys will have to examine among any other items that they feel they still have.

The Army Corps presented a rather unique position of its enforcement options:

The Corps additionally maintained - without citing any authority - that it was under no obligation "to take any particular action to cure an encroachment within a specified time period" or even "to ultimately cure the encroachment at all.

Source: District Court Decision Dated May 21, 2021.

This statement threw a monkey wrench into how the original Appeals Court Decision figured things would work. The Appeals Court originally assumed that the Army Corps would make a decision on the encroachment in a prompt manner.

[T]he Court of Appeals emphasized that it "would expect [the agency] to decide promptly. To do otherwise would be to issue a de facto outgrant without engaging in the NEPA analysis that the Corps concedes such an action requires.

Source: District Court Decision Dated May 21, 2021.

Now that the Army Corps has delayed the decision, the question before the district court was whether or not the now voided easement was enough to shut down the pipeline. The court's reasoning was that the vacated easement was not reason enough to shut down the pipeline.

That decision was properly the decision of the Army Corps of Engineers. This same Corps is now doing an EIS as the court ordered back in 2020.

Now, about the possibility of a leak "getting to the sacred waters":

Some insights as to likely conclusions were given by the court in its decision. First, there is the fact that the pipeline is a good 90 feet below the lakebed. Any leak would have to be substantial enough to (and move in the right direction) to cover that 90 feet. That would be quite a leak.

Secondly, there appears to be some natural layers between the pipeline and the lake that would inhibit liquids from making it through to the lake bed to begin a pollution-type event.

The biggest thing is that DAPL is a new pipeline with some of the latest safety measures and monitoring equipment available. Most new pipelines have relatively good track records (as does DAPL). Therefore, the court had to conclude that a damaging leak itself was not a realistic possibility because the court classified it as remote (at best).

Even the operating record of Energy Transfer submitted to the court could not overcome the inherent safety of a new pipeline. So any attempt by the plaintiffs to mention damage as a reason for an injunction failed.

DUC Inventory Dropping -- April, 2021, Data

Wow. The inventory of DUCs is at record lows. 

Many story lines.

This information was sent to me by a reader several weeks ago. I am finally getting it posted. A huge "thanks" to the reader.

Month-Year	Bakken				Eagle Ford				Permian
	Drilled	Completed	DUC		Drilled	Completed	DUC		Drilled	Completed	DUC
Dec-13	--	--	570		--	--	993		--	--	660
Jan-14	178	143	605		333	334	992		581	590	651
Feb-14	210	158	657		379	316	1,055		582	519	714
Mar-14	224	218	663		338	384	1,009		609	624	699
Apr-14	217	207	673		401	335	1,075		657	632	724
May-14	226	208	691		365	347	1,093		653	628	749
Jun-14	236	225	702		365	351	1,107		668	616	801
Jul-14	250	243	709		369	332	1,144		613	601	813
Aug-14	226	207	728		361	365	1,140		659	580	892
Sep-14	256	232	752		389	337	1,192		677	600	969
Oct-14	186	243	695		380	416	1,156		689	669	989
Nov-14	209	202	702		293	401	1,048		568	575	982
Dec-14	224	194	732		330	386	992		632	577	1,037
Jan-15	197	193	736		398	352	1,038		573	476	1,134
Feb-15	230	151	815		471	261	1,248		499	398	1,235
Mar-15	182	170	827		347	284	1,311		393	442	1,186
Apr-15	142	127	842		253	236	1,328		338	323	1,201
May-15	124	139	827		233	174	1,387		273	341	1,133
Jun-15	110	135	802		210	183	1,414		306	359	1,080
Jul-15	102	124	780		212	213	1,413		298	365	1,013
Aug-15	111	101	790		199	246	1,366		335	322	1,026
Sep-15	99	92	797		193	228	1,331		321	288	1,059
Oct-15	118	84	831		188	162	1,357		308	264	1,103
Nov-15	100	89	842		161	153	1,365		275	230	1,148
Dec-15	98	78	862		150	156	1,359		259	236	1,171
Jan-16	71	80	853		153	143	1,369		239	239	1,171
Feb-16	61	41	873		113	128	1,354		191	220	1,142
Mar-16	68	45	896		87	113	1,328		214	213	1,143
Apr-16	43	39	900		66	119	1,275		182	215	1,110
May-16	46	59	887		60	140	1,195		171	193	1,088
Jun-16	42	54	875		62	103	1,154		191	223	1,056
Jul-16	45	56	864		62	101	1,115		192	190	1,058
Aug-16	53	82	835		99	123	1,091		238	254	1,042
Sep-16	49	66	818		86	119	1,058		250	238	1,054
Oct-16	59	85	792		80	133	1,005		272	232	1,094
Nov-16	61	86	767		89	124	970		301	269	1,126
Dec-16	53	49	771		105	93	982		290	250	1,166
Jan-17	62	52	781		124	132	974		351	259	1,258
Feb-17	51	58	774		141	134	981		298	267	1,289
Mar-17	78	71	781		148	150	979		391	320	1,360
Apr-17	78	104	755		158	155	982		399	348	1,411
May-17	94	82	767		177	166	993		424	341	1,494
Jun-17	76	105	738		123	162	954		380	314	1,560
Jul-17	95	103	730		183	167	970		412	313	1,659
Aug-17	99	110	719		169	146	993		495	375	1,779
Sep-17	98	97	720		172	167	998		458	383	1,854
Oct-17	104	110	714		172	177	993		488	434	1,908
Nov-17	93	86	721		131	159	965		423	453	1,878
Dec-17	77	65	733		155	149	971		471	383	1,966
Jan-18	107	72	768		174	154	991		485	403	2,048
Feb-18	74	74	768		147	173	965		503	462	2,089
Mar-18	95	90	773		169	188	946		498	518	2,069
Apr-18	109	110	772		207	181	972		522	477	2,114
May-18	124	131	765		194	204	962		553	496	2,171
Jun-18	108	118	755		214	166	1,010		550	499	2,222
Jul-18	134	155	734		219	183	1,046		555	473	2,304
Aug-18	108	138	704		180	210	1,016		566	516	2,354
Sep-18	108	122	690		183	182	1,017		587	490	2,451
Oct-18	120	118	692		228	202	1,043		596	446	2,601
Nov-18	110	99	703		219	189	1,073		565	465	2,701
Dec-18	108	70	741		196	145	1,124		535	421	2,815
Jan-19	120	71	790		223	174	1,173		583	479	2,919
Feb-19	108	56	842		219	166	1,226		547	464	3,002
Mar-19	111	110	843		202	208	1,220		576	505	3,073
Apr-19	118	112	849		209	184	1,245		573	454	3,192
May-19	127	127	849		191	186	1,250		557	515	3,234
Jun-19	118	149	818		205	179	1,276		544	478	3,300
Jul-19	122	121	819		177	184	1,269		544	494	3,350
Aug-19	122	144	797		180	211	1,238		510	458	3,402
Sep-19	110	87	820		166	207	1,197		498	451	3,449
Oct-19	116	108	828		162	141	1,218		467	506	3,410
Nov-19	96	88	836		137	146	1,209		464	435	3,439
Dec-19	94	86	844		166	133	1,242		448	384	3,503
Jan-20	99	98	845		209	184	1,267		448	442	3,509
Feb-20	94	99	840		191	185	1,273		463	466	3,506
Mar-20	94	109	825		205	160	1,318		460	461	3,505
Apr-20	69	35	859		120	78	1,360		331	252	3,584
May-20	33	15	877		42	26	1,376		199	88	3,695
Jun-20	18	25	870		22	30	1,368		149	85	3,759
Jul-20	18	29	859		16	33	1,351		137	114	3,782
Aug-20	19	30	848		15	52	1,314		132	198	3,716
Sep-20	18	51	815		15	70	1,259		133	232	3,617
Oct-20	19	46	788		24	63	1,220		140	272	3,485
Nov-20	20	42	766		33	66	1,187		148	277	3,356
Dec-20	20	46	740		37	76	1,148		169	255	3,270
Jan-21	20	44	716		41	70	1,119		187	280	3,177
Feb-21	19	40	695		37	52	1,104		172	190	3,159
Mar-21	25	47	673		44	68	1,080		214	320	3,053
Apr-21	26	52	647		51	74	1,057		245	366	2,932