Global Oil Production -- January 28, 2025

Locator: 48422OILPRODUCTION.

From visualizingenergy.org, today. This chart is from Boston University.

AI:

*****************************
A Shortage As Soon As 2012
DOD: Joint Operating Command
October 27, 2011

The US Department of Defense’s Joint Operating Command said in its biennial report that a world oil supply shortfall would pose a serious challenge to military preparedness, he said in an e-mail to OGJ. “They have said that as soon as 2012, total world oil production will begin to decline, and that there could be a 10 million bbl/day shortage by 2015,” he indicated. 

This was back when DOD was paying $126 / gallon for algae-produced aviation fuel. 

 *******************************

Flashback from our own DOE, March 7, 2020, link here:

This is so incredibly cool. I first posted the note in the screenshot below on October 27, 2011, and then posted it again, with a tag to follow-up in December, 2020. It's a bit early, but with WTI dropping below $50/bbl, I thought this was as good a time as ever to post it again.

Link here. The tag, follow-up in December, 2020, will remain.

"... as soon as 2012, total world oil production [would] begin to decline, and .... there could be a 10-million-bbl/day shortage by 2015." 

Flashback To 2020 -- The US Is Running Out Of Oil That We Can Afford -- Update -- Re-Posting Five Years Later -- January 28, 2025

Locator: 48416OIL.

January 28, 2025: price of oil continues to drop. Currently trending back toward $70 / bbl.

Flashback from our own DOE, March 7, 2020, link here:

This is so incredibly cool. I first posted the note in the screenshot below on October 27, 2011, and then posted it again, with a tag to follow-up in December, 2020. It's a bit early, but with WTI dropping below $50/bbl, I thought this was as good a time as ever to post it again.

Link here. The tag, follow-up in December, 2020, will remain.

"... as soon as 2012, total world oil production [would] begin to decline, and .... there could be a 10-million-bbl/day shortage by 2015."

What a bunch of idiots. And to think they were the smartest and the brightest.

Interestingly, the second link in that screenshot takes you to the Russian Times and the story is still "up."

Just think, if Bernie is elected president, the Russian Times will likely be the new "government" newspaper. LOL.

US Field Production -- September, 2024, Data

Locator: 44449B.

Link here.

Data for previous two months revised down slightly.

Midday -- November 19, 2024

Locator: 44357LEGO.

Director's Cut to be released at 3:00 p.m. today. Start here at this link.

Weather: incredibly beautiful weather here in north Texas. A high of 72°F forecast; currently (1:17 p.m. CST), 70°. 

Lego: "Late Holiday, 2024 Catalog" arrived today. Wow. A dozen "nice-to-have," another dozen "really, really nice-to-have" models. But only one "must-have" model: set number 76328. Batman™: The Classic TV Series Batmobile. 

I absolutely don't have any more room or any more need for another Lego model, but this is an exception -- I'll make room. 19" long. $149.99.1,822 pieces = $182.20.

Hyperbole: from the current issue of The Atlantic --

Early in the article: 

Wow, "every president between 1901 and 1921." All four of them -- 

• Theodore Roosevelt: a great president; hardly supports the writer's thesis;
• William H Taft: as good as any president; better than most?
• Woodrow Wilson: the only Dem in this group -- 

During his first year as president, Wilson authorized the widespread imposition of segregation inside the federal bureaucracy and his opposition to women's suffrage drew protests.

His first major priority was the Revenue Act of 1913, which began the modern income tax, and the Federal Reserve Act, which created the Federal Reserve System.

At the outbreak of World War I in 1914, the U.S. declared neutrality as Wilson tried to negotiate a peace between the Allied and Central Powers. He narrowly won re-election in 1916 against Charles Evans Hughes. In April 1917, Wilson asked Congress for a declaration of war against Germany in response to its policy of unrestricted submarine warfare that sank American merchant ships. Wilson concentrated on diplomacy, issuing the Fourteen Points that the Allies and Germany accepted as a basis for post-war peace. He wanted the off-year elections of 1918 to be a referendum endorsing his policies, but instead, the Republicans took control of Congress.

After the Allied victory in November 1918, Wilson attended the Paris Peace Conference. Wilson successfully advocated for the establishment of a multinational organization, the League of Nations, which was incorporated into the Treaty of Versailles that he signed, but back home he rejected a Republican compromise that would have allowed the Senate to ratify the Versailles Treaty and join the League.

• Warren Harding: died as one of the most popular presidents in history. Ohio Central College.

David Brooks: trying to re-write history?

As mentioned earlier, I won't be renewing my subscription. 

Sanctuary City, Los Angeles: city council "poised" to pass a "sanctuary city" ordinance to bar using local resources to help federal immigration authorities. Wow.

******************************
More

Headlines over at twitter so far today:

• Netflix: from The Verge -- Netflix says the Jake Paul vs Mike Tyson fight was "the most-streamed sporting event ever."
• DOGE looking at a more efficient IRS: filing taxes directly. Has been talked about for along time; US Congress always finds way to stop it. Hopefully, taxpayers will be able to tap into their IRS accounts. 
• for investors: which trillion-dollar-tech company (or companies) will benefit?
  
• New York congestion pricing hits a snag.

US field production of crude oil (link here):

The Permian, The Bakken, And The Gulf Eating OPEC's Lunch -- This Graph Is Simply Amazing -- August 13, 2024

Locator: 48408PEAKOIL.

Link here. 

US crude oil field production.

Since August, 2022, not one month less than 12 million bopd.

One year later, August 2023, hit 13 million bopd and never dropped below that 13-handle except for one month -- January, 2024.

Essay On US Production -- Export -- Crude Oil -- April 5, 2024

Locator: 46929WTI.

Link here.

The whole essay is awesome but this paragraph is particularly interesting:

The EIA analysis noted that following nearly 40 years of annual production declines, in 2009, U.S. crude oil production experienced a resurgence, attributed to the widespread adoption of hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling techniques by producers. Since then, production has continued to climb steadily.

The only interruption to this growth occurred in 2020 and 2021, when demand and prices plummeted due to the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Notably, recent increases in total crude oil and natural gas production in the United States have been primarily driven by the growth of production in the Permian Basin, located in western Texas and eastern New Mexico.

Time to review "Hubbert Peak Theory." The fact that the expert did not mention Hubbert Peak Theory suggests that "everybody knows.

Peak Oil Demand -- US Crude Oil Field Production -- December 31, 2023

Locator: 46429B. 

US crude oil field production, three consecutive months, greater than 13 million bopd.

 ******************************
Peak Oil Demand

Bjorn Lomborg: IEA was wrong -- just six months ago.

  

Focus On Fracking -- From Last Week -- US Record Production -- October 22, 2023

Locator: 45793WTI.

Link to last week's edition.

Tonight's edition.

From last week:

US crude oil production -- an all-time high at13.2 million bopd:

US Domestic Oil Production Hit An All-Time Record Last Month, August, 2023

Locator: 45791USA. 

Barrels of oil per day. BOPD.

The EIA will update their chart this week (?). The previous high was 13,000,000 bbls of crude oil per day (bopd) back in November, 2019, just before the Covid-19 lock down. 

The last month the EIA has posted data: 12,991,000 bbls crude oil per day (bopd), July, 2023. 

The new record: 13.2 million bbls crude oil per day (bopd), August, 2023.

So, in 1,000s bbls per day (bopd):

• November, 2019: 13,000.
• July, 2023: 12,991.
• August, 2023, 13,200.

EIA dashboards:

• EIA pdf, Bakken: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/pdf/bakken.pdf
• EIA, pdf, Permian: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/pdf/permian.pdf
• EIA, pdf, Eagle Ford: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/pdf/eagleford.pdf

Weekly EIA Petroleum Report -- Whopping Increase In Crude Oil Produuction -- Rest Of Report Unremarkable -- October 12, 2023

Locator: 45740WTI.

WTI: initially up; now down.

Link here.

• US crude oil increased by a whopping 10.2 million bbls; 424.2 million bbls; 3% below average.
• US crude oil imports: 6.3 million bpd; an increase; 3.5% more than same period one year ago
• refiners operating at a very, very low 85.7%
• gasoline production up; distillate production also increased
• distillates: 11% below average
• jet fuel supply up 5.1%

  *************************************
  US Oil Production: 13 Million BOPD Is The Target
  

  Back in September, Rystad predicted that the US would hit a new all-time production record. Link here.

  

  Where do we stand today (most recent government figures)? Link here.

  

  When we hit that record:
  

• faux environmentalists will ignore it;
• faux environmentalists, on camera, when asked, will shedd alligator tears;
• the White House will have no press release congratulating US oil companies.
•  

Just Getting Started -- October 3, 2023

Locator: 45634TEXAS.

Later: the UAW strike in perspective. For GM, F, and STLA, it’s worse than you think.

BRK / HPQ: Third story in about as many weeks as Warren Buffett continues to sell his HPQ. Link here.

• again, note: Barron's won't open with the Firefox browser

• HPQ shares continue to fall in price:
• BRK sold another 5.1 million shares of HPQ in "recent days";
• now holds about 100.9 million shares; worth about $2.6 billion at current price, $25.67;
• Berkshire has been steadily selling HP stock in each of the past nine trading sessions and now holds a 10.2% stake in the company;
• before the selling began in September (2023), Berkshire held about 120 million shares of HP
• Berkshire accumulated the HP stake in early 2022 and the sales in the past month were the first since the company finished buying the stock in April 2022.
• an incredibly short holding period for BRK / Buffett
• also, TSM -- bought and then sold "almost overnight"
• it appears something abruptly changed for Buffett
• has not "yet" sold any of his AAPL

DFW:

• DFW is now the second busiest airport in the world, behind Atlanta, Georgia, USA. Link here. One through five:
  
• Atlanta
• Dallas-Ft Worth
• Denver
• Chicago's O'Hare
• Dubai International

DFW: to make significant expansion; link here.

• $9 billion project
• appears to be joint project between American Airlines and the airport
• brand new Terminal F
• upgrade the international terminal, Terminal C
• currently, 80 million passengers / year
• by end of decade, forecast: 100 million passengers / year

DFW: the typical DFW terminal has 36 to 40 gates. An expansion with "only" fifteen new gates begs the question, "why so few?"

• most likely reason: economics and that's probably how the promoters would answer, 
• but more likely, officials are anticipating much larger aircraft
• regardless, this gives the developers some flexibility
• it would be interesting to see the advantages of a "straight" terminal vs the "curved" terminal, currently the DFW standard

Daimler makes history, link here.

• reminder: Daimler's EVs are simply a transition to hydrogen -- until hydrogen infrastructure can meet demand
• but, for Daimler, EV trucks are not the answer -- except perhaps for certain niches -- hydrogen is where Daimler sees the future for trucks: economics, distance, government policy;
  

*************************************
US Oil Production: 13 Million BOPD Is The Target

Back in September, Rystad predicted that the US would hit a new all-time production record. Link here.

Where do we stand today (most recent government figures)? Link here.

When we hit that record:

• faux environmentalists will ignore it;
• faux environmentalists, on camera, when asked, will shedd alligator tears;
• the White House will have no press release congratulating US oil companies.

US Tight Oil Production Sets All-Time Record -- EIA -- September 9, 2023

Locator: 45581RECORD.

Link here.

With combination of US tight oil and Guyana/Suriname -- OPEC+ has to be very, very concerned.

We'll post Saudi Arabia's foreign exchangs reserves next. The latest numbers are quite shocking.

So, Just Where Do US Oil Refiners Stand? June 21, 2023

Locator: 44998REFINERS. 

We're gonna hit another record this year! Take this to the bank! 

• 18.3 + 0.25 = 18.55
• 18.98 - 18.55 = 0.43 = 2.3%.

Link here to Reuters.

HOUSTON (Reuters) -

U.S. crude oil refining capacity has reversed two years of declines and climbed by more than 100,000 barrels, to 18.1 million barrels per day. This year’s 18.1 million bpd capacity remains below the 18.98 million bpd peak in 2019.

During the first two years of the COVID-19 pandemic, processing capacity to produce gasoline, diesel and jet fuel fell 5.4% ...

..... prices surged, Biden demanded prices come down and refiners responded by increasing capacity ...

Increases reflect capacity expansions at Marathon Petroleum and Citgo Petroleum.

The total does not include a 250,000 bpd increase that came after the cutoff date at Exxon Mobil’s Beaumont, Texas refinery in March of this year. The Beaumont expansion, the largest addition to a U.S. refinery in more than a decade, pushed the total to about 18.3 million bpd, still shy of the 2019 peak.

Marathon Petroleum Corp remains the nation’s largest refiner, with its Garyville, Louisiana, refinery now the nation’s third largest with 596,000 bpd capacity.

Marathon’s 2.9 million-bpd crude oil refining capacity represents 16% of the nation’s total.

Valero Energy Corp remains the second-largest U.S. refiner by volume with its 2.1 million bpd capacity equal to 12% of the U.S. total.

Motiva Enterprises, which operates the 626,000-bpd Port Arthur, Texas, refinery, operates the single largest refinery by capacity in the U.S. with Exxon’s Beaumont plant just behind it. Motiva is the U.S. refining arm of Saudi Aramco.

Citgo Petroleum Corp’s Lake Charles, Louisiana refinery grew by 37,000-bpd to 455,000-bpd.

The increase comes as cars and trucks are switching to renewable fuels and rechargable batteries instead of fossil fuels to reduce rising global temperatures from climate change.

**************************
Christopher Nolan Filmography

The films:

• Following (1998)
• Memento (2000) 
• Insomnia (2002) 
• Batman Begins (2005) 
• The Prestige (2006) 
• The Dark Knight (2008) 
• Inception (2010) 
• The Dark Knight Rises (2012) 
• Interstellar (2014) 
• Dunkirk (2017) 
• Tenet (2020) 
• Oppenheimer (2023)

Notes From All Over, Part 1 -- January 29, 2020

Biggest non-story today: Boeing reports loss. But it's a huge story. Not so much for Boeing but for the analysts. How can they get it so wrong? Having said that, Boeing stock up 2% in early morning trading. But how bad were the forecasts?

• earnings:
• analysts forecast a 70% drop in earnings to $1.73/share
• in fact, Boeing posted a huge loss: $2.33 / share
• revenue: 
• analysts forecast revenue would be down 23%; to $21.67 billion
• in fact, revenue fell well below $20 billion, at $17.91 billion
• even defense revenue fell 13%
• negative free cash flow of $2.67 billion vs positive free cash flow of $2.45 billion a year earlier

Next to fall: GE if the Boeing debacle isn't resolved in Boeing's favor by June, 2020. Others agree.

*******************************

EIA: For The Archives

Annual Energy Outlook: 2020

Link here. I hope Sophia pulls this chart up in 2050 to see how everything turned out.

Graphics:

US gross energy trade:

• 21st century: the golden age for the US when it comes to energy
• look at the wide gap between exports and imports
• the gap continues well as far out as one can see

US energy consumption by sector:

• transportation hardly changes
• industrial grows nicely
• subtle, but it appears electric power grows slightly

Electricity generation from selected fuels:

• the pie grows larger -- significantly larger;
• from "4,000" in 2010 to "5,200" in 2050
• if renewables grow to 38% that will be huge -- 
• natural gas, on a percentage basis, holds its own -- in a pie that is growing larger

It Will Be Interesting To See EIA Projections After Recent GeoPolitical Events In The Mideast When Some People Did Some Things -- September 15, 2019

From a January 28, 2019, post:

Meanwhile, from just earlier this month:

One year ago -- repeating, one year ago, the EIA saw American crude oil production averaging just less than 12 million bopd in 2042 -- 24 years from now (from 2018) -- this year, the EIA says "Never mind."

The US will likely produce 14 million bopd in 2020 -- next year. 

A year ago, January, 2018, the EIA forecast that the US would average 11.95 million bbls by 2042. By 2042. That's 20+ years from now. Now, one year later, January, 2019, the EIA forecasts the US will hit 14 billion bopd in 2022, and will top out at 14.53 million bopd in 2031.  

It will be interesting to see how the recent geopolitical events in Saudi Arabia will affect these projections. 

US Oil Production Has "Hit A Wall" -- Oilprice Contributor -- September 9, 2019

For the archives:

Two weeks ago, Oilprice.com published my notes which supported my belief that U.S. oil production has “hit a wall”. Archived.

Last week, EIA confirmed my conclusion. The EIA’s 941 report shows that after U.S. crude oil production peaked in April at 12,123,000 barrels of oil per day production declined 8,000 BOPD in May and another 33,000 BOPD in June.

Preliminary estimates say that when actuals are available for July, they will show an even larger decline.

These are not big declines, but with the active drilling rig count continuing to fall, I feel confident in telling you that U.S. oil production over the second half of this year is not going higher.

When EIA reports actual production figures for July at the end of this month, they are surely going to be lower because of the well shut-ins due to Hurricane Berry in the Gulf of Mexico.

Barring another GoM hurricane, oil production should rebound a bit in August and September. However, I don’t see anything that will return U.S. oil production to the peak set in April.

So, we will see.

EIA 941 reports at this link. Most recently, both Texas and North Dakota showed an increase in production in June, 2019, compared to May, 2019. Alaska and California, along with Oklahoma, Wyoming, and New Mexico, accounted for the greatest decline which was insignificant to say the least. Compare this data with export data from Saudi Arabia.

EIA 914 reports are at this link.

Again, for this oilprice contributor, it's all about rig counts.

Actually, there's something interesting about that. I might come back to that if I remember.

By the way, the oilprice contributor says we will see the data in the July 941's at the end of this month (September, 2019).

We may have a preview with the "EIA dashboards." The current dashboards have actual data through July, 2019, and projected data through September, 2019:

EIA dashboards: 

• EIA pdf, Bakken: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/pdf/bakken.pdf
• EIA, pdf, Permian: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/pdf/permian.pdf
• EIA, pdf, Eagle Ford: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/pdf/eagleford.pdf

The Eagle Ford is declining but I don't see declines in the Bakken or the Permian. And a lot of the decline in US shale is simply good business sense.

So, again, this is where we stand, reposting from above:

Last week, EIA confirmed my conclusion. The EIA’s 941 report shows that after U.S. crude oil production peaked in April at 12,123,000 barrels of oil per day production declined 8,000 BOPD in May and another 33,000 BOPD in June.

Preliminary estimates say that when actuals are available for July, they will show an even larger decline.

US crude oil production:

• April, 2019, all-time record: 12,123,000 bopd
• May, 2019, declined by 8,000 bopd (note the false precision)
• June, 2019, a further decline of 33,000 bopd

• 8,000 / 12,123,000 = 0.00066 or 0.066%
• 33,000 / 12,115,000 = 0.002724 or 0.272%

Background noise.

If the contributor is correct, he will write another article.

If the contributor is not correct, we won't hear a thing.

The EIA dashboards, September production over August production:

• Permian: up 75,000 bopd
• Bakken: up 3,000 bopd
• Eagle Ford: down 6,000 bopd
• net: up 72,000 bopd

Director's Cut for North Dakota, crude oil production:

• June, 2019, preliminary: 1.424624 million bopd; all-time record; an increase, month-over-month of 29,977 bopd [the final figure is generally higher than the preliminary figure]
• May, 2019: 1.394,648 million bopd; an increase of 2,163 bopd (essentially flat, but not a decrease)
• April, 2019: 1.392,485 million bopd: an increase of 725 bopd (flat, but not a decrease)
• March, 2019: 1.391,760 million bopd:

Another US Crude Oil Production Record Set This Past Week -- August 22, 2019

The background to this note involves a lot of history about how the US government comes up with their statistics. If you've been following the blog for awhile you are probably aware of the "inside" story. If not, the story will become clear(er) over time.

From a reader:

The lower 48 set a production record this week, but I doubt that anyone mentioned it.

The output from wells in the lower 48 states rose by 100,000 barrels per day to a rounded record high of 12,000,000 barrels per day, while there was a 94,000 barrels per day decrease to 339,000 barrels per day in Alaska's oil production, and hence the final rounded national production total that everyone cites was unchanged at 12,300,000 barrels per day.

Most of this year, Alaska was adding 500k to the national total. I have no idea what happened in there this week, unless they had a hurricane we didn't hear about.

My hunch: polar bears are turning off the oil pumps to do their part to prevent global warming. 

This information will be repeated in greater detail and explanation this next Sunday, at "Focus On Fracking," linked at the sidebar at the right.

See EIA data at this link. And, yes, 12,300,000 million bopd for the week ending 8/16/2019. I believe those are "estimates."

This EIA data is apparently "actual" production data but such data lags a couple of months.

US Crude Oil Production Hits Record, Milestone; Whopping US Crude Oil Draw -- API; WTI Closes Near $59 -- June 26, 2019

US crude oil production: new all-time high -- 12.2 million bopd -- Rigzone/API. And note:

“These milestones were achieved despite less drilling activity, which is testament to productivity but also pipeline infrastructure expansions that helped enable drilled but uncompleted wells to come to market,” the API report stated.

WTI: closed up almost $1.00 / bbl today; closed at $58.82. This follows a whopping draw (see below).

API weekly crude oil inventories:

• forecast: a draw of 2.891 million bbls
• actual: a whopping draw of 7.5 million bbls (link here)
• EIA numbers come out Wednesday, June 26, 2019

Active rigs:

$58.82	6/26/2019	06/26/2018	06/26/2017	06/26/2016	06/26/2015
Active Rigs	62	64	59	30	75

Two new permits:

• Operators: Kraken Operating; Sinclair Oil & Gas
• Fields: Oliver (Williams); Lone Butte (McKenzie)
• Comments:
• Kraken has a permit for a single Stevenson-Garner well in lot 1/section 6-157-98; Oliver oil field
• Sinclair has a permit for a single Renae well in section 9-147-98, Lone Butte oil field

Four permits renewed:

• Whiting (2): two Lassey permits in McKenzie County
• MRO: a Jan permit in Mountrail County
• Resource Energy Can-Am: a Lincoln State permit in Divide County

Three permits canceled:

• BR: two Three Rivers permits and one Three Washers permit, all in McKenzie County

"Red Hot Permian Set To Jolt US Shale Output To New Reocrd" -- EIA -- Oilprice -- April 20, 2019

Link here. Data points from EIA's most recent "drilling productivity report":

• there are seven key shale regions in the US
• US shale expected to increase production by 80,000 bopd in April
• US shale will hit a record 8.46 million bopd in May
• the Permian will account for half of that monthly gain
• will see production jump by 42,000 bopd
• this would be a record high of 4.136 million bopd in May
• this would place the Permian in the #3 spot in the world, behind Saudi Arabia (9.79 milion bopd) and Iraq (4.52 million bopd)
• next milestone for the Permian: to become #2 in the world
• the Niobrara: would add 22,000 bopd, to 764,000 bopd in May; second largest growth after the one in the Permian
• other regions to see increased production: the Bakken, the Eagle Ford, and the Appalachia region
• Anadarko: may slip a bit next month (May)
• total US crude oil production:
• February, 2019: 11.8 million bopd
• March, 2019: 12.1 million bopd
• 2019 average: 12.4 million bopd
• 2020 average: 13.2 million bopd 

Reminder: EIA dashboards:

• natural gas storage 
• EIA pdf, Bakken: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/pdf/bakken.pdf
• EIA, pdf, Permian: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/pdf/permian.pdf
• EIA, pdf, Eagle Ford: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/pdf/eagleford.pdf

Making America Great -- March 5, 2019

Data lags: but one can track US crude oil exports here.  It appears US crude oil exports hit an all-time high back in October, 2018. It's really quite amazing when one thinks about it.

Link to story here.

From twitter today: