Friday, March 15, 2024

Week 11: March 11, 2024 -- March 17, 2024

Locator: 46773TOPSTORY.

Top story:

  • Biden and Trump each claim their party's nomination for US President

Top international non-energy story:

  • Red Sea remains closed; attacks on US Navy surge; seems unable to effectively counter -- unchanged

Top international energy story:

  • (at least) three Russian refineries hit by Ukraine drones; Russia loses about 400,000 bbls or refined production per day (needs to be fact-checked)

Top national non-energy story:

Top national energy story:


Focus on fracking: link here.

Top North Dakota non-energy story:


Top North Dakota energy story:


Geoff Simon's quick connects: link here.

Ten New Permits; Two Permits Renewed; Two Permits Canceled -- March 15, 2024

Locator: 46772B.

WTI: $81.04.

Active rigs: 39.

Ten new permits, #40589 - #40598, inclusive:

  • Operators: CLR (6); Oasis (3) Petroshale
  • Fields: Murphy Creek (Dunn County); Truax (Williams); and, Antelope (McKenzie)
  • Comments:
    • CLR: permits for six Doe wells, NENW 26-145-95;
    • Oasis: permits for three Truax State Federal wells, SWSE 9-153-98;
    • Petroshale with one permit for a Primus well, NWNW 17-152-94, 
      • to be sited 185FNL and 610FWL

Two permits renewed:

  • Whiting: two Helling permits, Pronghorn oil field, McKenzie County;

Two permits canceled:

  • CLR: two Cuskelly permits, Dunn County;

A Reader Alerted Me To The Most Recent News Coming Out Of California -- Updating The Bullet Train -- Still On Track -- Just Needs A Bit More Money For First Phase -- March 15, 2024

Locator: 46771TRAIN.

$0.130 trillion for the California bullet train

Story tracked here.

Two screenshots:


To put this cost in perspective:

A Petro-Hunt Charlson Well That Goes Over One Million Bbls Crude Oil Cumulative --March 15, 2024

Locator: 46770PETROHUNT.

The well:

  • 16963, A/IA/423, Petro-Hunt, USA 35D-1-1H, Charlson Three Forks, t12/08; cum 812K 1/21; NOTE: this is a 640-drilling unit; this is a dual lateral; it's quite a story; off line again, 5/20; remains off line 6/20; last sundry form received in 2012; nothing to explain recent production; cum 890K 9/21; cum 953K 11/22; cum 977K 6/23; cum 996K 1/24;  recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN1-2024312572264913776047578348
BAKKEN12-20233022552590121950034663138
BAKKEN11-2023302616282813966127583781
BAKKEN10-20233129022800155770076660134
BAKKEN9-20233030112869167869106262439
BAKKEN8-2023313196322117757474724711
BAKKEN7-2023313363318019276998672262
BAKKEN6-20232831062745206853704671509

An XTO Well Nearing One Million Bbls Crude Oil Cumulative And Still No Pump -- March 15, 2024

Locator: 46769XTO.

The well:

  • 17113, 3,030, XTO/Denbury, Charlson 14X-35H, Charlson, t10/08; cum 882K 3/21; F; subtle jump in production; cum 890K 6/21; still F; cum 891K 9/21; still F; cum 921K 10/22; F; 933K 6/23; cum 951K 1/24; recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN1-20243126862294138347431410
BAKKEN12-20233127862963174397236390
BAKKEN11-20233029383426213399236700
BAKKEN10-2023272809202054034562516650
BAKKEN9-202311325454226185780
BAKKEN8-20233124142691125365334190
BAKKEN7-20233131373350279542951950
BAKKEN6-2023303634334235844713807437
BAKKEN5-20233139553723526526350440
BAKKEN4-2023189841604781209105796
BAKKEN3-20232027172062578334418581302
BAKKEN2-202320001971960
BAKKEN1-20232623222654733170
BAKKEN12-20222764169778286080
BAKKEN11-202230366223307003780

A Petro-Hunt Charlson Well Goes Over One Million Bbls Crude Oil Cumulative -- March 15, 2024

Locator: 46768RECORD.

The well:

Recent production:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN1-2024312572264913776047578348
BAKKEN12-20233022552590121950034663138
BAKKEN11-2023302616282813966127583781
BAKKEN10-20233129022800155770076660134
BAKKEN9-20233030112869167869106262439
BAKKEN8-2023313196322117757474724711
BAKKEN7-2023313363318019276998672262
BAKKEN6-20232831062745206853704671509
BAKKEN5-202316174718569434226407738
BAKKEN4-2023303558396818957919766248
BAKKEN3-202331400040202237827164071648

Jump in production back in 2023:

BAKKEN7-20213110015949661871684895607072
BAKKEN6-20212910812112786602409038880
BAKKEN5-2021311423614384730323212852014476
BAKKEN4-202130165791627473181288573285348
BAKKEN3-2021271181311497741011599114160
BAKKEN2-20210000000
BAKKEN1-20210000000
BAKKEN12-202020343836041410463644900
BAKKEN11-202030659368252285825880490
BAKKEN10-2020317731767922251003498180
BAKKEN9-202030716973382687865184420
BAKKEN8-2020241409333523397
BAKKEN7-20201101001241240
BAKKEN6-20201103001071070

One Of The First Bakken Wells From The Early Days Hits 2 Million Bbls Crude Oil Cumulative -- March 16, 2024

Locator: 46767RECORD.

The well:

  • first drilled in 2006.
  • big jump in production in 9/21:
BAKKEN9-2021301247612403165517228133483059
BAKKEN8-2021311139011476155215904104374713
BAKKEN7-2021311352813397130217875107195628
BAKKEN6-202130109371105137611480091994003
BAKKEN5-2021311437914339386718682126924720
BAKKEN4-2021251366213558550517961707210715
BAKKEN3-20210000000
BAKKEN2-20211800000
BAKKEN1-20210000000
BAKKEN12-20200000000
BAKKEN11-2020145955630910282017866239
BAKKEN10-20201109001430142
BAKKEN9-202012690533300323
BAKKEN8-202021030291200
BAKKEN7-202021171748829022
BAKKEN6-20200000000
BAKKEN5-20200000000
BAKKEN4-20202836293722127746234543813
  • most recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN1-20242812791337301822459612215
BAKKEN12-20233117081658565999398941
BAKKEN11-202330240924227841106110269617
BAKKEN10-202331284528421123110521082313
BAKKEN9-202330338233371406111011085240
BAKKEN8-2023313814386213421317212847109
BAKKEN7-2023314353434727631260112123262
BAKKEN6-202313107710331095151068
BAKKEN5-2023302423250515501090510155551

An XTO Three Forks Well In Alkali Creek -- Update -- March 15, 2024

Locator: 46766XTO.

The well:

  • 35434, SI/NC-->SI/A, XTO, Emma 31X-30E, Alkali Creek, no production data, no activity since 6/19; cum 206K 1/24; FracFocus data available; at NDIC, Three Forks first bench (B1); IP - 716; 40 stages; 10,688,207 lbs; 218,091 bbls fluid; 
  • from the file folder:
    • KOP: reached at 10,011 MD at 0850 hours CDT, June 25, 2021
    • build began: 0850 CDT on June 25, 2021; TVD reached at 1210 hours CDT on June 26, 2012; Three Forks;
      • top of the target window: 15 feet into the Three Forks and extended 10 feet down to a base at 10,436.15 TVD
    • lateral:
      • began at 1415 hrs CDT, June 27, 2012
      • TD: depth of 20,660 MD at 10,330 TVD at 1423 hrs CDT on June 30, 2023
    • so, less than 36 hours for the build; lateral almost exactly three days; 

Full production profile:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN1-202429262825902870176417427
BAKKEN12-202331257525863434199319707
BAKKEN11-202329253624817605145314364
BAKKEN10-2023311223120936363543492
BAKKEN9-20231679383926141289121561
BAKKEN8-20231319321857708405629601063
BAKKEN7-2023001520000
BAKKEN6-202329362035882318816567971310
BAKKEN5-202331453745049132996786831228
BAKKEN4-2023304417442412584102861022325
BAKKEN3-20233153515443857413584117361804
BAKKEN2-202328542553008355938483081030
BAKKEN1-202331361136511683648133930847
BAKKEN12-2022276448653768011241811983435
BAKKEN11-202230919890901692412626109731653
BAKKEN10-2022318621857216662107941073856
BAKKEN9-20221228923000744142564052204
BAKKEN8-20223095839687158941610715623484
BAKKEN7-20223012793127182098717351149202431
BAKKEN6-20223017428174442533515636136192017
BAKKEN5-2022311781017879328991964119431210
BAKKEN4-20222718136181083850420465164484017
BAKKEN3-20222613505132784196414784126572127
BAKKEN2-20223007971000

For The Archives -- Family Note -- March 15, 2024

Locator: 46764ARCHIVES.

Forty-seven years ago, on a Saturday, May and I were driving from west Los Angeles to Las Vegas to get married. Since then, two children and "most" of our married life in Europe. Not necessarily in time but in memories. Thirteen consecutive years overseas -- May says fourteen -- and all of it in Europe except two years in Asia -- yeah, it's hard to believe but eastern Turkey is part of Asia. In fact, east Turkey is in a world of its own.

It's not uncommon for military 20-year and 30-year veterans to have an "I Love Me" wall after leaving the service. I never did. I threw out a lot of my USAF memorabilia after I retired, keeping just the "best" memorabilia. Somewhere along the line I lost my most prized possession but it no longer matters to me. And it's possible it's still in one of the boxes in the garage that hasn't been opened. I quit posting on Facebook years ago, but occasionally I check in with the Bitburg (Germany) Air Base group that is very, very active on Facebook. Photos of USAF a/c still bring back a lot of memories. Especially the F-15, the F-111, and the B-52. I do have a wall in the Bat Cave devoted to USAF plaques and photos.

Soccer granddaughter Olivia, along with her dad and boyfriend, Will, are returning home after a week of roughing it -- camping and hiking -- in Big Bend National Park. To some degree -- but much, much different -- it reminds me of the summer after graduating from college that I hitchhiked to NYC from Williston, ND, flew to Europe, and spent two months or so walking across Europe, meeting up with family friends for two weeks in a VW bus from Italy to Portugal via the Mediterranean coast. Had smart phones been around then, I would have documented the trip a whole lot better. But fortunately I did keep a journal.  

It looks like we'll be celebrating our older daughter's birthday a few days early

Huge thunderstorm and tornado (?) and hailstorm in our immediate area overnight. No damage in our neighborhood, but today will be a miserable day to be outside.

**************************
The Home Library Page

Today, I will be reading a bit from the quarterly, Claremont Review of Books, the winter 2023 / 2024 issue which just arrived yesterday. It seems 75% of the articles are just "repeats" of everything "they've" written about for years. It gets tedious. Nothing to suggest any "evolution" in thinking over the decades. No new ideas. Thomas Paine and Benjamin Franklin seem more interesting than most of what's in the Claremont any more. I originally subscribed for the book reviews, and thankfully, a couple of book reviews in this issue might be worth reading.

Max Boot's 2018 The Road Not Taken is absolutely fascinating. A must-read for those who were 18 to 28 years old back during the Vietnam War days. I guess the Baby Boomers and a few early / older Gen Xers. After that, no one seems interested. In fact, those 18 to 28 years old in 1965 means birth years betweenn 1947 and 1957 which means solidly baby boomers and not even Gen Xers. I suppose WWI is to me what Vietnam is for Sophia, age 10. 


*****************************
Word for the Day

 Caesura: think Covid. A "pause."

*******************************
Breakfast

Remnants of pie day -- 3-14:


One of the reasons grocery prices don't seem so high for me: compare what you at your grocery store to what you pay when you go out to eat.

When I was growing up, certainly until I was 15 years old, going out to eat was very, very special. I must have been twelve years old when I had my first pizza. No hyperbole. 

A slice of pie for dessert today might cost me $4.50 at a nice restaurant in our neighborhood. This lemon meringue pie gave us eight generous slices and cost $7.99 -- a dollar a slice, or 8 x $4.50 = $36 at a restaurant not including tax, tip, and other fees.

TGIF -- March 15, 2024

Locator: 46763B.

Players: already missing 15 players, the projected cut line suggests we could lose the following players:

  • Justin Thomas
  • Will Zalatoris
  • Steve Stricker
  • Ricky Fowler
  • Jordan Spieth

The market: it's very possible I won't check in on the market or CNBC today. I'm watching "The Players" PGA championship, and doing some reading.

Maybe something to talk about later:

  • copper prices
  • Biden pause (LNG export permits)
  • Lukoil suicide -- #4

Personal investing: added to my position in CRH today. No recommendation. Just letting family and friends know what I'm doing. CRH is in my big cap, infrastructure bucket for new money.  

Over at the BBC today:

  • the real question -- can you spot the Kate Middleton photo-shopped family photo?

**************************
Back to the Bakken

January freeze: Bakken production decreased but still above one million bopd.

WTI: $80.77.

Sunday, March 17, 2024: 116 for the month; 175 for the quarter, 175 for the year
None.

Saturday, March 16, 2024: 116 for the month; 175 for the quarter, 175 for the year
38100, conf, BR, Stafford 11-34TFH,

Friday, March 15, 2024: 115 for the month; 174 for the quarter, 174 for the year
39247, conf, Whiting, S-Bar Laurel 5393 34-1 4B,
38101, conf, BR, Stafford 11-34MBH, 

RBN Energy: in efforts to bolster power grid, ERCOT seeks to balance reliability, system cost. Archived.

In the three years since the deadly electrical outages caused by Winter Storm Uri, the Texas Legislature, the Public Utility Commission of Texas (PUCT), and the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) have been working overtime to design and implement changes to ensure a more reliable Texas power grid. But it hasn’t been easy.

The state’s energy-only electricity market and its outsized reliance on intermittently available wind and solar power have forced policymakers, regulators and the electric-grid operator to develop a wide range of fixes aimed at maintaining a competitive atmosphere while at the same time incentivizing market players to have power available when it’s needed most. In today’s RBN blog, we look at what they’ve been up to. 

Texas is the energy state. It produced 42% of the U.S.’s crude oil, 25% of its natural gas and more than 12% of its electricity in 2022 — tops among the states in all three categories. Given its large industrial base, Texas is also the largest energy-consuming state. The industrial sector comprises roughly a third of the nation’s refineries, three-quarters of basic U.S. chemical production capacity, and a growing number of semiconductor manufacturing plants. Texas industrials account for more than half of the state’s electricity consumption and 23% of the nation’s total industrial use. Maintaining a low cost of electricity is essential for these industries, making it more critical to the Texas economy — and jobs — than any other state.