Vibecession -- April 9, 2024

Locator: 46966ECONOMY.

Link here.

Vibecession is a neologism that refers to a disconnect between the economy of a country and the general public's negative perception of it, which is mostly pessimistic. The term was coined by Kyla Scanlon in a June 2022 newsletter about Americans' view of their economy.

It is a portmanteau of the words 'vibes' and 'recession'. 

Where, when, and how the word was coined.

Kyla Scanlon.

I love JPow's quote, below:

I agree completely. 

I might have to read her book.

I understand how folks connect the dots and argue that the US government "printing" money leads to inflation.

I'm not convinced of that. But I understand how folks can connect the dots and arrive at that conclusion.

[Question: if printing money is the cause of inflation, why did inflation drop precipitously from early 2023 to early 2024 when government debt worsened, the deficit worsened, and all indications are that both will be worse a year from now -- and yet inflation is back down to its historic "norms" -- about two to three percent.] 

[Question: why does inflation vary from year to year, month to month, if inflation is due to printing money and printing money (as we understand it colloquially) continues to get worse over the past several decades?]

[Suggestion: this might be a good time to read three really, really good books on hyperinflation and the Weimar Republic. Printing money was "something that happened" but was not the cause of hyperinflation.]

This is the IMF (?) definition of inflation but the definition says nothing about what actually causes inflation. 

LinkedIn.

And yes, I've ordered her book. This is truly going to be a hoot.

The Enerplus "Fishing" Pad In Eagle Nest

Locator: 46965ENERPLUSFISHING.

The Wells

On separate pads in Eagle Nest:

• 32341, loc/drl, Enerplus, Quillfish 149-95-36C-25H-TF-LLW, Eagle Nest, t10/16; cum 450K 6/24;
• 31071, loc/drl, Enerplus, Bait 149-95-36C-25H, Eagle Nest, t10/16; cum 535K 6/24;
• 31072, loc/drl, Enerplus, Tackle 149-95-36C-25H TF, Eagle Nest, t10/16; cum 491K 6/24;
  
• 40654, loc/drl, Enerplus, Bobber 149-95-36C-25H, Eagle Nest,
• 40655, loc/drl, Enerplus, Hook 149-95-36C-25H, Eagle Nest,
• 40656, loc/drl, Enerplus, Waders 149-95-36D-25H, Eagle Nest,
• 40657, loc/drl, Enerplus, Line 149-95-36D-25H, Eagle Nest,
• 40658, loc/drl, Enerplus, Reel 149-95-36D-25H, Eagle Nest,
• 40659, loc/drl, Enerplus, Rod 149-95-36D-25H, Eagle Nest,
  

Original Note

Six new permits, #40654 - #40659, inclusive:

• Operator: Enerplus
• Field: Eagle Nest (McKenzie County)
• Comments:
• Enerplus has permits for a six-well "Fishing" pad, SESE 36-149-95 / lot 4, section 31-149-94, 
• with wells to be sited between 449 FSL and 401 FSL and between 20 FEL and 148 FWL (right along the section line); the wells, Bobber, Hook, Waders, Line, Reel, and Rod.

The maps: I believe I have the location correct, but I have been know to make mistakes on such maps.

Enerplus With Six New Permits; Eight Permits Renewed; And One DUC Reported As Completed -- April 9, 2024

Locator: 46964B.

Volume surges, link here:

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $85.28.

Active rigs: 35.

Six new permits, #40654 - #40659, inclusive:

• Operator: Enerplus
• Field: Eagle Nest (McKenzie County)
• Comments:
• Enerplus has permits for a six-well "Fishing" pad, SESE 36-149-95 / lot 4, section 31-149-94, 
• with wells to be sited between 449 FSL and 401 FSL and between 20 FEL and 148 FWL (right along the section line); the wells, Bobber, Hook, Waders, Line, Reel, and Rod.

Eight permits renewed:

• Operator: SOGC; a Nelson permit, Kittleson, Mountrail; six Lizzie Rae permits, Lone Butte, McKenzie; and a Crosby Creek permit, Little Knife, Dunn County;

One producing well (a DUC) reported as completed:

• 39724, 1,296, WPX, Bull Moose 28-27HY,

A Fallacy -- April 9, 224

Locator: 46963BUFFETT.

See if you can find the fallacy in this news story: Buffett's favorite indicator.

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EV Poll In The US

Link here. The number has increased in 2024 over numbers in 2023. 

Almost half of all Americans would not even consider buying an EV, much less even buy one.

More Americans said in 2024 that they would not consider purchasing an electric vehicle (EV) than in 2023, a new Gallup poll found.

The poll found that 48 percent of respondents said they would not consider buying an electric vehicle — up 7 percentage points than those who said the same in 2023. Thirty-five percent said in the latest survey they might consider purchasing one, and 9 percent said they were seriously considering it.

The new poll also found that the percentage of Americans who said they owned an EV ticked up slightly in 2024, with 7 percent saying they have one. Last year, 4 percent said they owned an EV.

The Biden administration finalized a rule last month that could result in 56 percent of new vehicles on the market being electric by 2032. While the rule does not mandate a shift to electric vehicles, it sets pollution standards for an automaker’s vehicle fleet that would be challenging to meet without increasing the share of electric or other low-carbon vehicles.

Does that "percent" seem high? The new poll says 7 percent of Americans say they own an EV. You don't need a poll to determine that number; one can google vehicle registrations.

• number of EVs registered in the US: 2,400,000.
• number of automobiles registered in the US: 278,870, 463.

Statistics from 2022.

• 2,400,000 / 278,870,463 = 0.008606 - 0.86%.

In our relatively affluent neighborhood I count about seven Teslas on the road for every 100 cars. Very, very informal observation. Btu that's in a very affluent neighborhood. I doubt the numbers don't come that close in "more typical north Texas" neighborhoods.

In California:

• 903,620 / 31,400,000 = 0.0288 = 2.9%. 

Olive Oil -- Inflation Due To Climate Change; Excess Olive Oil Drives Prices Down -- April 9, 2024

Locator: 46962INFLATION.

This is pretty funny but very, very typical.

Late last year we were told over and over how inflation was driving the price of oil higher and higher.

Now, today, .... well, take a look:

Link here. 

I wonder if folks will talk about the "deflation" in the price of olive oil. Probably not. Won't fit their narrative.

Cooking oil, the bar: 8 cents / ounce:

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FDIC Rules Change For Trusts

Link here.

$250,000 per depositor per bank.

Exception: trust -- $1.5 million per trust per bank (if this concerns you, go to the source, this needs to be fact-checked at the source):

• five beneficiaries of a $1.5 million trust
• $250,000 per beneficiary per bank

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Bat Cave

Holy mackerel.

If you don't have a man-cave or a she-shed, I suppose, you are really missing out.

From a male's perspective, one absolutely needs a man's cave. I don't know about women, but I assume the same. My man cave is a "Bat Cave" -- I have the sign -- and visitors are by invite only except for Sophia -- open invitation. 

It's incredible.

Catching up on my reading when in the background -- what popped up on the Amazon Firestick? Uninterrupted -- commercial free -- episodes of WKRP In Cincinnati. I've tried for years to find the series and now I've found it.Wow. Jan Smithers (Bailey Quarters)  and Lonnie Anderson. Good Morning, 1987; WKRP, premiered 978. Check out season 2, episode 14. 

I don't know if WKRP was the best sitcom ever but if not, it's in the top two. LOL. I find myself laughing out loud. A "Mary Tyler Moore" production.

Meanwhile, I'm reading the new "biography" of Lord Byron.

George: Maker's Mark.

Me? Islay Scotch whisky single malt Scarbarus. 

I see, "breaking news," the parents of their "shooter son" get 10 to 15 years. 

Intel is marketing a 5 nm chip. Meanwhile, Apple already has a 3 nm chip in their new computers and are working on a 1.4 and a 1.3 nm chip with TSM.

Intel in the news, up 0.02%, up $0.007 -- okay. That moved the needle. LOL.

I don't "own" Intel, never will. But SCCO -- I have been accumulating SCCO for years -- today, SCCO is up 3.2% on a down day for the market. Whoo-hoo.

I get a kick out of what folks on CNBC mention. LOL.

And pays almost 3% -- and well beyond 3% for early investors. LOL.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.

Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.

Notes On Texas Energy -- Just 'Cause We Need It, Doesn't Mean It Will Be A Great Investment -- April 9, 2024

Locator: 46961ENERGY.

Okay, we all agree that energy demand is going to surge in the US due to AI, cryptomining, data centers, EVs. 

Link here.

A decade ago I was deeply concerned that we "would run out" of energy -- accessible, affordable energy. 

No more. Things have changed. 

We are never going to run out of energy.

What has changed is that the government will play a much, much bigger role in determining which energy we will use to generate electricity: nuclear, solar, wind, natural gas, coal.

Yesterday's eclipse reminded us about solar energy.

Texas, solar: at Reuters', the eclipse overshadowed Texas' solar power strength. Link here.

Texas wind: also from Reuters'. 

LITTLETON, Colorado, Feb 15 (Reuters) - Power generated by Texas wind farms dropped by 22% in January 2024 from the same month in 2023 as low wind speeds continue to stifle output across the main power system in Texas, the largest power market in the United States.

Wind generation in January was 356,000 megawatts (MW), compared to 455,000 MW in January 2023, data from the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) shows.

As wind power is the second largest source of electricity behind natural gas in Texas, the drop in wind output so far this year has forced utilities to sharply increase generation from fossil fuels to balance system needs.

Combined output from natural gas and coal was close to 50% greater in January 2024 than in January 2023, underscoring the enduring importance of fossil fuels within the ERCOT system despite the ongoing build-out of renewable generation capacity.

But energy is now a regional story in the US. California will need nuclear.

 

But, and this is key: just 'cause we're going to need it, doesn't mean it's going to be a great investment.

 

Exhibit A: natural gas. Operators are paying others as much as $2.00 / MMBtu to take their natural gas away (in other words, natural gas has actually turned negative at times this year). But even at best, when natural gas is "positive," it's selling at well under $3.00 / MMBtu and that's not enough to make a meaningful profit. Oil E&P operators hate natural gas. It's actually a drag on their profitability.

 

With regard to energy, right now, investors are pretty much making money only with oil. But as an investment, the oil story is a story for another day.

 

The energy story today, energy (outside of oil): for investors, energy is now "dead money." If energy is not necessarily "dead money," there are so many other places to invest, outside of energy (again, I'm talking about all forms of energy outside of oil). 

 

Natural gas, again, re-posting: the chart at this post simply blows me away. 

NOVI, Ted Cross, natural gas production in the Permian: link here. 

Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.

See disclaimer. This is not an investment site.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.

Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market, I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple.

TED: Economics Daily -- US BLS -- Interactive Chart -- April 9, 2024

Locator: 46960JOBS.

Link here.

Oasis Slagle Wells In Camp Oil Field, Northeast Of Alexander

Locator: 46959SLAGLE.

The wells:

• 35076, conf, Oasis, Slagle 5101 43-12 6B,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
2-2024	28651	36215
1-2024	28673	34456
12-2023	31801	40379
11-2023	26588	32138
10-2023	17379	18559

• 35075, conf, Oasis, Slagle 5101 43-12 5B,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
2-2024	30875	39203
1-2024	23003	25997
12-2023	25108	30482
11-2023	30461	36314
10-2023	20209	21806

The maps:

Back of the proverbial envelope:

• 30,000 bbls x $80 at the well-head = $2.4 million.

Inflation Watch -- Tueday Morning -- The Market Is In A Holding Pattern -- Waiting For Inflation Data Later This Week -- April 9, 2024

Locator: 46958B.

Updates

Later: this is what caused the market to plummet -- oh, give me a break.

Original Post 

Reuter's tech, ARM, AMD, and Microsoft (ARM, AMD, MSFT):

 

Tech: most interesting development -- QCOM back in favor? Wasn't it less than a year ago and folks were concerned about QCOM / AAPL story. Now, MSFT / QCOM. Wow. On a down day for the market yesterday, up 1.22%; up $2 / share. In pre-market trading today, up a bit again. Microsoft says its upcoming Windows laptops with Qualcom processors will be faster than MacBook M3 laptops. 

Time for a deep-dive with regard to Qualcom? Link here.

Tech: but there's a bigger story with regard to Microsoft / Qualcom. Did anyone catch it?

Tech: today's it's Samsung -- US CHIPS Act -- Samsung, $6.6 billion -- Taylor, Texas -- Texas' silicon valley -- northeast of Austin.

Streaming: PARA. What a debacle for BRK. Search the blog, Paramount. I wasn't following the market yesterday. Completely missed this. I knew PARA was in trouble, doing badly, but I had no idea it was this bad, dropping almost 8% yesterday; down 50% in past year. Of course, the driver yesterday was the Motley Fool story on BRK / Paramount.

Energy: crude oil -- higher for longer. Doesn't get much press, does it? And yet ....

Oil: it's simply hard for me to believe we won't see incredible earnings headlines for the oil majors this quarter but one never knows. 

Mideast peace? Yes, as noted yesterday, it seems the IDF ... well, to paraphrase Mark Twain, the news that Netanyahu was pivoting on Rafah was greatly exaggerated. 

Mixed estimates, but this source suggests Hamas still has four battalions in Rafah. Elsewhere, I've seen numbers as high as six battalions in Rafah. Hamas:

• strength: 30,000
• five brigades (each led by a BG-equivalent)
• 24 battalions (each led by a colonel-equivalent)
• 140 companies (leach ed by a junior-grade officer)

Personal investing:

• sold most of my MCD holdings;
• completed my VZ investment goal
  
• rest of month, most new money, add to CAT position, by rule
• added to QCOMposition based on recent news 
• no recommendation
• see disclaimer

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $86.59.

Wednesday, April 10, 2024: 17 for the month; 17 for the quarter, 216 for the year
38011, conf, BR, CCU Plymouuth 34-29MBH,
37484, conf, SOGC, Saetz Federal 5-36H,
35076, conf, Oasis, Slagle 5101 43-12 6B,
35075, conf, Oasis, Slagle 5101 43-12 5B,
20860, conf, Petro-Hunt, Hartman 144-97-5A-8-1HR,

Tuesday, April 9, 2024: 12 for the month; 12 for the quarter, 211 for the year
39782, conf, CLR, Thorvald 6-6H,
37471, conf, SOGC, Saetz Federal 4-36H,

RBN Energy: navigating the permitting hurdles in a race to build the next deepwater crude oil export project.

The deepwater crude oil export projects under development along the U.S. Gulf Coast offer a number of potential benefits to shippers and customers alike. These include the ability to fully load a Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) and the economies of scale that come with that, the elimination of reverse lightering and the corresponding decrease in emissions, and freed-up access on congested ship channels for other exports such as NGLs, refined products and clean ammonia. So, given all the potential upside, why hasn’t anyone fully committed to building one? In today’s RBN blog, we focus on the obstacles faced by deepwater export facilities and where each of the projects under development is in the permitting process.