Sunday, December 10, 2023

Headlines — December 10, 2023

Locator: 46275HEADLINES.

Updates

December 11, 2023: the LA Dodgers' ten-year plan to put Ohtani at the center of the baseball universe. Link here.

Original Post

NFL: Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys this evening. Mike McCarthy will be on the sidelines coaching the Cowboys having just undergone emergency surgery of acute appendicitis. Speaking of which, how is Stephen Colbert doing -- apparently two weeks convalescence may not be enough.

Shohei "show me the money" Ohtani: aka "Shotime. What drove that $700 million? Television rights in Japan. Before the deal was announced:

Bakken highway: $55 million in federal money to continue work on widening US Highway 85 in McKenzie County. An additional thirteen miles: two lanes to four; widen some shoulders; reduce some roadway curves. 

CIGNA: scraps deal to buy Humana. Someone must have read the FTC tea leaves.

IBD: five tech stocks in buy zones; Tesla setting up for run.

**********************
Shotime

From wiki:

Following an injury-plagued 2019 and 2020, Ohtani would go on to have a 2021 season widely considered to be historic, as he became the first in the history of MLB with 10+ home runs and 20+ stolen bases as a hitter and 100+ strikeouts and 10+ pitching appearances as a pitcher in the same season while also holding at least a share of the major league lead in home runs in 14 starts.
Because of his elite contributions both offensively and as a pitcher, a rarity for two-way players, Ohtani's peak is widely considered among the greatest in baseball history, with some comparing it favorably to the early career of Babe Ruth
For his efforts, he was awarded the 2021 American League Most Valuable Player Award. He followed this in 2022 by becoming the first player in the modern era to qualify for both the hitting and pitching leaderboards in one season, reaching the thresholds of 3.1 plate appearances and one inning pitched per game with 586 at bats and 166 innings pitched.
Ohtani completed yet another historic campaign in 2023, becoming the first player in MLB history with 10 wins and 40 home runs in a season, the first Japanese-born player to win a major league home run title, leading the American League with 44 home runs, the first player in MLB history to be a unanimous MVP twice and the first Japanese player to have the most popular Major League Baseball jersey sales.

What a great country. Imagine the excitement among all the "kids" in LA this year.

Two Big Stories Coming Out Of Tech Last Week -- The Pivot To India And The Pivot To Vietnam -- December 10, 2023

Locator: 46274TECH.

There were a lot of stories last week about "tech" pivoting to India, but I simply ran out of time to post them, and truthfully, I really don't care. 

Tech is also pivoting to Vietnam. Today, from Reuters:

These are simply observations, but truthfully, this interests me not.  

It's interesting that Mexico, Brazil, and Argentina can't compete in this market.

Lego has major operations in Mexico

Cargo shipping time:

  • Denmark to the US: 18 days, departing every two to four weeks.
  • so, if "you" miss the departure deadline, one could wait two weeks (and possibly four weeks) for the next departure time; and,
  • then the ocean transit would be upwards of three weeks;
  • throw in Teamsters rules for unloading at US ports, and one can easily see 60 days, which, in fact, is the typical "backorder" date seen at the Lego site. 
  • Mexico to the US: same day. Rail or truck. But, of course, it depends. 
  • Asia to the US: I would assume it's similar to Atlantic crossings.

Five States Operating -- Five States Energy

Locator: 46273FIVESTATES.

This is the extent of Five States Operating activity in North Dakota, to date, December 10, 2023:


 The maps:



Company profile
, link here.

  • Five States Operating has the same mailing address as Five States Energy, HQ in Dallas. 
  • operating in: TX, LA, NM, ND.

Initial Production Data For Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week -- December 10, 2023

Locator: 46272NEWWELLS.

Initial production data for wells coming off confidential list this next week:

  • 39698, conf, WPX, North John Elk 28-27HB, Reunion Bay, np,
  • 39552, conf, Five States Operating, RH 1-8H, Rocky Hill,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-202334130
9-202333430
8-20236960
  • 39230, conf, Grayson Mill, Reidle 6-3F2H, Briar Creek,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-20231977313025
9-20232314017366
8-20232490021883
7-20233362818228
6-2023170199017
  • 39027, conf, Hess, GO-GOLDEN VALLEY-LW-157-96-2832H-1, Ray,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-20231341226673
9-20231902240477
8-20231805232166
7-20232792929481
6-2023121986940
  • 38257, conf, Hess, EN-State B-155-93-0916H-10, Alger,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-20232145126460
9-20232280126413
8-20232394525311
7-20232289116048
6-20232917919954
  • 39697, conf, WPX, North John Elk 28-27HW, Reunion Bay, npd,
  • 38254, conf, Hess, EN-State B-155-93-0916H-7, Alger,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-20231541918178
9-20231575618302
8-20231832020498
7-20231954920274
6-20231663815165
  • 38114, conf, Formentera Operations, LFM1 22-34 161-93 BTF, Leaf Mountain,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-2023123160
9-202373400
  • 39696, conf, WPX, North John Elk 28-27HIL, Reunion Bay, npd,
  • 39291, conf, Hess, GO-TONG Trust A-17-96-2032H-3, Ray,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-20231909636884
9-20231495026757
8-20232397238455
7-20233637764231
6-20232790565959
  • 39292, conf, Hess, GO-TONG TRUST A-157-96-2032H-2, Ray,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-20231588727433
9-20231352020573
8-20231039317581
7-20232375635166
6-20231922416349
  • 39716, conf, Petro-Hunt, Joel Goodsen 149-102-32C-29-1H, Moline, npd,
  • 39715, conf,  Petro-Hunt, Joel Goodsen 149-102-32C-29-2H, Moline, npd,
  • 39312, conf, Hess, SC-JW Hamilton-LN-153-99-1314H-1, Long Creek,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-20231507831432
9-20232751255929
8-20232651637736
7-20233626360098
6-20233205259454
  • 39714, conf, Petro-Hunt, Dudley Dawson 148-103-2B-11-1H, Sheep Butte, npd
  • 39713, conf, Petro-Hunt, Dudley Dawson 148-103-2B-11-2H, Sheep Butte, npd
  • 38255, conf, Hess, EN-State B-155-93-0916H-8, Alger,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-20231834124063
9-20231989724717
8-20232067523703
7-20232172823759
6-20233513029684
  • 38256, conf, Hess, EN-State B-155-93-0916H-9, Alger,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
10-20231734421225
9-20231985322877
8-20232427629225
7-20233168944526
6-20233750643309

Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week -- December 10, 2023

Locator: 46271NEWWELLS.

Wednesday, December 20, 2023: 29 for the month; 178 for the quarter, 748 for the year
39698, conf, WPX, North John Elk 28-27HB,
39552, conf, Five States Operating, RH 1-8H,
39230, conf, Grayson Mill, Reidle 6-3F 2H,
39027, conf, Hess, GO-GOLDEN VALLEY-LW-157-96-2832H-1,
38257, conf, Hess, EN-State B-155-93-0916H-10,

Tuesday, December 19, 2023: 24 for the month; 173 for the quarter, 743 for the year
39697, conf, WPX, North John Elk 28-27HW,
38254, conf, Hess, EN-State B-155-93-0916H-7,
38114, conf, Formentera Operations, LFM1 22-34 161-93 BTF,

Monday, December 18, 2023: 21 for the month; 170 for the quarter, 740 for the year
None.

Sunday, December 17, 2023: 21 for the month; 170 for the quarter, 740 for the year
39696, conf, WPX, North John Elk 28-27HIL,

Saturday, December 16, 2023: 20 for the month; 169 for the quarter, 739 for the year
None.

Friday, December 15, 2023: 20 for the month; 169 for the quarter, 739 for the year
39291, conf, Hess, GO-TONG Trust A-17-96-2032H-3,

Thursday, December 14, 2023: 19 for the month; 168 for the quarter, 738 for the year
39292, conf, Hess, GO-TONG TRUST A-157-96-2032H-2,

Wednesday, December 13, 2023: 18 for the month; 167 for the quarter, 737 for the year
39716, conf, Petro-Hunt, Joel Goodsen 149-102-32C-29-1H,

Tuesday, December 12, 2023: 17 for the month; 166 for the quarter, 736 for the year
39715, conf,  Petro-Hunt, Joel Goodsen 149-102-32C-29-2H,
39312, conf, Hess, SC-JW Hamilton-LN-153-99-1314H-1,

Monday, December 11, 2023: 15 for the month; 164 for the quarter, 734 for the year
39714, conf, Petro-Hunt, Dudley Dawson 148-103-2B-11-1H,

Sunday, December10, 2023: 14 for the month; 163 for the quarter, 733 for the year
39713, conf, Petro-Hunt, Dudley Dawson 148-103-2B-11-2H, 
38255, conf, Hess, EN-State B-155-93-0916H-8,

Saturday, December 9, 2023: 12 for the month; 161 for the quarter, 731 for the year
38256, conf, Hess, EN-State B-155-93-0916H-9,

Deep Dive -- F-150 Lightning Sales -- December 10, 2023

Locator: 46270EVS.

Before we get started, EV charging times for Chevy Bolt, the #1 non-luxury EV vehicle in North America:

  • driving range: 260 miles
  • 120 volt, typical US outlet: 4 miles per one hour of charging -- overnight charging 40 miles range
  • 240 volt, typical US utility outlet: 40 miles per one hour of charging; overnight charging -- full charge -- 260 miles driving range;
  • commercial fast charging: 100 miles in 30 minutes

****************************
Sales

The supply chain problems are resolved except in some sectors, notably batteries.

The Verge 2022 F-150 Lightning review: link here.

  • one of the best reviews I've seen
  • dated August 16, 2022
  • The Verge: huge audience; incredible review; how many comments? Zero. Speaks volumes.
  • the biggest problem: impossible to buy
  • did this get any exposure? I don't recall Phil LeBeaux, CNBC, doing a story on this:

So, I was curious, a year later, how has the F-150 Lightning done?

But look at all the headlines:

  • Inside EVs, November 2, 2023: Ford F-150-Lighhtning US sales hit new record -- 3,712
  • Yahoo!Finance, October 16, 2023: Ford cutting F-150 Lightning factory shift is "emblematic...."
  • Teslarati, July 7, 2023: Ford F-150 Lightning sales up over 100% in 2Q23 -- 4,466
  • wikipedia:
    • 3Q22: 6,466
    • 2022, full calendar year: ca. 2000
    • 1Q23: 7,085
    • 2Q23: 4,466
    • 3Q23: 3,503

And then this, which, I guess, I had forgotten about.


So, I guess, one year later: still impossible to buy.

But, then this, earlier in the year, from Detroit News: Ford on track to produce 150,000 units, according to Ford:

EV Chargers — Nice Update — Texas -- Biggest Recipient In Biden's EV Charger Funding -- Which Just Trickled Down To Tesla -- December 10, 2023

Locator: 46269EVS. 

Note: disclosure -- I added to my Tesla position last week, I think it was on Friday.

Note: this whole subject is very, very confusing for me. I'm just trying to sort it out. 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.

Link here. Huge amount of information packed in this story. Status of government-promoted EV charging. Headline not quite accurate:

There are two stories here:

  • the state of EV charging infrastructure across the US, in general; and,
  • specifically, the "standard" -- the government proposal or Tesla's proposal?

The article does not address the second story. 

But here's the answer to the second question, from Reuters

Companies that hope to tap $7.5 billion in federal funding for this network must also adopt the dominant U.S. standard for charging connectors, known as "Combined Charging System" or CCS; use standardized payment options; a single method of identification that works across all chargers; and work 97% of the time. Tesla, the nation's largest EV maker and charging company, plans to incorporate the CCS standard and expand beyond its proprietary connectors, the administration said.

My initial thoughts: Tesla is the huge winner here. 

Actually, the EV consumer is the biggest winner but investors don't invest in "EV consumers." Investors invest in auto makers and EV charging companies.  This forces Tesla to incorporate the CCS standard -- which they will do -- and, now, Tesla customers can tap into any charging unit in North America. Tesla, by far, has the most charging stations already, so automobile manufacturers will still have to provide NACS accessibility.

Texas will receive the most of that Federal money

Reminder:

NACS: wiki. Nice summary

The Biden mandate, back in February, 2023.


From the Electrek link:

Texas has officially approved an initiative that would force charging stations to be equipped with Tesla’s NACS connector in order to get access to over $400 million in subsidies.
After the first wave of automakers announced that they would adopt NACS, a connector that Tesla designed and is trying to make the new charging standard in North America, Texas’s Department of Transportation announced that it planned to add NACS as a requirement to get access to millions in new funding for charging stations.
However, Texas Transportation Commission faced pushback from charging station companies over the initiative due to concerns about getting access to the NACS connectors to build those stations. It pushed the vote back, but today, it was made official (via Reuters), this was back in August, 2023:
Texas on Wednesday approved its plan to require companies to include Tesla’s technology in electric vehicle (EV) charging stations to be eligible for federal funds, despite calls for more time to re-engineer and test the connectors.
Now this new requirement is a state requirement on top of the federal requirements – where the money is coming from – which includes a requirement that the charging stations have CCS connectors.
Therefore, charging stations in Texas will need to have both CCS and NACS connectors to get access to federal money. Texas will receive more money for EV charging stations from the federal government than any other state – $407 million.

And then look at this from the Reason.com link (same as above):

Even with federal funds, part of the problem may also be cost, because the chargers are quite expensive to build and maintain. The types of chargers mentioned in the law are either Level 2 or Level 3, also known as Direct Current Fast Charging (DCFC). Level 2 chargers use alternating current electricity and take between four and 10 hours to charge an E.V., while DCFCs use direct current and can charge an E.V. in less than an hour. Any long-term solution would prioritize DCFCs—no road-tripper will want to wait all day for their car to charge when fueling up a gas burner takes minutes. But DCFCs are considerably more expensive to install: A 2019 study by the Department of Energy found that while Level 2 chargers can cost up to $6,500 to install, DCFCs can cost as much as $40,000. Depending on factors like hardware costs, other estimates have put the price between $50,000 and $100,000.

One million units x $100,000 = ^6 +^5 = ^11 = a hundred thousand million = $100 billion. The Biden authorization: $7.5 billion.

The goal, here, is not to buy EV charging stations, but to buy votes. 

By the way, $7.5 billion is surprisingly close to how much the Biden administration has just awarded two bullet train initiatives in California: $6 billion.

******************************************
Understanding EV Charging

Re-posting.

Locator: 45415B. 

 Updates

December 10, 2023: F-150 Lightning update.

December 10, 2023: EV chargers -- nice update.

August 27, 2023: tech writer for The WSJ buys an EV for the family. The "buying experience" here at "YouTube." Exactly why EVs will not catch on for a long, long time. 

Original Post

I know very little about cars or car engines, but when shopping for a new car, all I need to know is mpg. One number. Okay, two: city / highway.
  • I never ask about range
  • I never ask about the kind of pump I need to use
I know nothing about electricity and nothing about EVs, but when shopping for a new car, I need to know:
  • type of connector
  • type of charging station 
  • the size of the tire which affects range
  • range on a fully charged battery (see below)
    • a very cold day
    • a “normal” day
    • a very hot day
  • level charging station: level 1, 2, or 3
  • how long does it take to fully charge the vehicle
  • how do I know when it is optimally charged? What is the optimal charging range?
  • advertised range vs actual range (this is more relevant than you will ever realize until after you’ve bought the car);
This is how I understand it (right, wrong, or indifferent) now. This is how I would explain it to Sophia, subject to editing, correcting, and adding more information as I get a better understanding and as technology, batteries, charging stations evolve over time.

The links:
This is the most important graphic. It doesn't require any understanding of anything; just keep the graphic in you mind. 


What to note in the graph:
  • the left side of the graph/chart: 
  • the charging stations you see in parking lots around town
  • measured in kW (you don't even have to know what a kW is -- just know that's how EV charging station ports are "rated;
  • in the example: one charging port is rated at 7.5 kW; the other charting port is rated at 60 kW
  • some existing ports are now rated higher than 60 kW
  • as time goes on, the ratings will increase in size (power)the right side of the chart:
    • this is your car, your EV
    • when you talk to your dealer or to you friend, you will ask about / talk about the "size of the battery" or the "battery's energy" -- or whatever the phrase is
    • if you don't have much money, the EV you buy will have a battery with a lower energy rating, such as 15 kWh in this example;
    • if you are rich, you will be able to afford an EV with a "bigger battery" -- such as 120 kWh in this example
    • like most things in life (but not golf scores), bigger is better
    • buy the "biggest" EV you can afford
Charging: in the graph above -- 
  • when you pull into a charging station, the greater the rating of the charging station, in this case 7.5 vs 56, the faster you can charge your EV
  • so, why doesn't everyone just plug into the the charging port / station with the higher / highest rating, 56 in this case
  • you can't plug your cheap little EV into a charging station that has too much power for your little pathetic EV
  • so, in the example above, if your pathetic little EV is rated at 15 kWh, it cannot plug into a charging unit with a higher rating. 
  • so, in the example above, you can only plug your 15-kWh-rated pathetic little EV into the 7.5-kW-rated charging port / station
And that's all you need to know.

Except for this, in the graph above: the small print.
In the graphic above, the bigger car rated at 120kWh pulls up to the charging unit rated at 60kW. The car takes a charge for two hours. Two (2) hrs x 60 kW = 120 kWh which is what the bigger car in the graph above is rated. 
So, a "big" car with a rating of 120 kWh can be fully charged in two hours if plugged into a charger rated at 60 kW.

If that "big" car with a rating of 120 kWh pulls into a charging station rated at 7.5 kW, it will take .... 120 / 7.5  = 16 hours to fully charge.

Okay, so that's all you need to know.

But there's a lot more one can know if one is interested.

We shouldn't have to say this but an EV rated at 120 kWH can "last longer" (longer range, all things being equal) than a pathetic little EV rated at 15 kWh.
 
*******************************
Charging Stations

Level 1 vs level 2 vs level 3 charging stations
 
Level 1
  • 120 volts — AC
  • your garage
  • absolutely worthless
Level 2
  • 240 volts — AC
  • can be installed in your garage
  • In the Target parking lot
  • at 60 kW, two hours to “achieve” 120 kWh, so four hours to fully charge a soccer mom’s SUV
Level 3
  • 480 volts — DC
  • not at your house, ever

************************
Connectors
 
Connector type: non-Tesla
  • J1772: level 1 and level 2
  • CCS1: level 3
NCAS for all Tesla modelslink here.

***************************
Miscellaneous

Other facts / factoids / opinions / comments:
  • hybrids are fake EVs -- they are the worst thing one can buy in the "EV family" but Ford is now transitioning to hybrids ... more on that later. Ford will sell a lot of hybrids, as well as Toyota will sell a lot of hybrids. That's good for the car companies but bad for you; really bad for the roads (but you won't care about that); and really, really, bad for the environment (again, something yo won't care about. You will be happy just knowing that you are part of the EV community).
  • Ford is "going all out" with hybrids. Link here.
  • charging stations prone to “breaking down”; generally, outside of big cities, if the charging station you visit is “out of order,” you are really “out of luck.” If you thought running out of gas is bad, you haven’t experienced the seventh level of hell until you experience a dead battery and a broken charging unit.