Mystery Solved -- March 13, 2019

See this post. The well below was a neighboring well to #20342 explaining the jump in production of that well.

NDIC File No: 32533     API No: 33-053-07513-00-00     CTB No: 132533 Well Type: OG     Well Status: A     Status Date: 12/9/2018     Wellbore type: Horizontal Location: SESW 33-154-95     Footages: 469 FSL 2502 FWL     Latitude: 48.111726     Longitude: -102.903840 Current Operator: PETRO-HUNT, L.L.C. Current Well Name: USA 153-95-4B-9-4H Elevation(s): 1968 KB   1939 GR   1942 GL     Total Depth: 20380     Field: CHARLSON Spud Date(s):  7/27/2018 Casing String(s):  9.625" 1412'   7" 10040'   Completion Data    Pool: BAKKEN     Perfs: 10164-20251     Comp: 12/9/2018     Status: F     Date: 1/6/2019     Spacing: 2SEC Cumulative Production Data    Pool: BAKKEN     Cum Oil: 41752     Cum MCF Gas: 55948     Cum Water: 5277 Production Test Data    IP Test Date: 1/6/2019     Pool: BAKKEN     IP Oil: 946     IP MCF: 1321     IP Water: 113

Monthly Production Data Pool Date Days BBLS Oil Runs BBLS Water MCF Prod MCF Sold Vent/Flare BAKKEN 1-2019 31 26954 27595 1597 37092 34776 2100 BAKKEN 12-2018 23 14798 13702 3680 18856 18693 3

Mocking Bird Hill, Slim Whitman

The Bakken Never Ceases To Amaze -- March 13, 2019

Recent production for a well drilled back in 2011:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	1-2019	31	18660	18742	5033	24830	17676	6939
BAKKEN	12-2018	15	9183	8330	3048	10684	9086	1496
BAKKEN	11-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2018	12	3261	3644	743	7087	5811	1197
BAKKEN	9-2018	30	9277	9448	1985	16977	14265	2503
BAKKEN	8-2018	31	9216	9040	2116	17960	17618	126
BAKKEN	7-2018	31	9724	9873	2209	17890	17595	79
BAKKEN	6-2018	30	10650	11102	2855	16461	16076	176

See background regarding this incredible well. Drilled in 2011, coming up on one million bbls of oil.

Production:

• Crude oil: 928,249 bbls
• Natural gas: 1395004 MCF = 232,462 boe
• BOE: 1.161 million boe
• Look at the dreaded Bakken decline.

This well will continue to produce for 35 years.

Just saying.

Last Date, Floyd Cramer

Random Update Of A BR Well With An IP of Zero -- March 13, 2019

BR holds the Bakken record for the lowest IP for a well that was not dry. Pretty good for a well with an IP of zero, wouldn't you say? I remember all the talk about IPs when the Bakken boom first began. LOL.

The well:

• 31757, 0, BR, Glacier 2-4 MBH, Clear Creek, t3/18; cum 197K 1/19;  

NDIC File No: 31757     API No: 33-053-07169-00-00     CTB No: 231396 Well Type: OG     Well Status: A     Status Date: 3/21/2018     Wellbore type: Horizontal Location: SWSW 9-151-96     Footages: 340 FSL 610 FWL     Latitude: 47.906233     Longitude: -102.981303 Current Operator: BURLINGTON RESOURCES OIL & GAS COMPANY LP Current Well Name: GLACIER 2-4 MBH Elevation(s): 2381 KB   2348 GR   2355 GL     Total Depth: 20575     Field: CLEAR CREEK Spud Date(s):  9/10/2017 Casing String(s):  9.625" 1852'   7" 10939'   Completion Data    Pool: BAKKEN     Perfs: 10939-20575     Comp: 3/21/2018     Status: F     Date: 3/21/2018     Spacing: 2SEC Cumulative Production Data    Pool: BAKKEN     Cum Oil: 196728     Cum MCF Gas: 317689     Cum Water: 67864 Production Test Data    IP Test Date: 3/21/2018     Pool: BAKKEN     IP Oil: 0     IP MCF: 911     IP Water: 4976

Monthly Production Data Pool Date Days BBLS Oil Runs BBLS Water MCF Prod MCF Sold Vent/Flare BAKKEN 1-2019 31 9858 9928 6388 41928 41851 0 BAKKEN 12-2018 31 14810 14877 6484 41785 41708 0 BAKKEN 11-2018 30 15888 15778 5848 40633 40559 0 BAKKEN 10-2018 30 17932 17825 7620 26879 26805 0 BAKKEN 9-2018 30 15583 15611 6726 20824 20750 0 BAKKEN 8-2018 31 18837 18986 4416 17950 17873 0 BAKKEN 7-2018 31 26011 25806 8176 29796 29719 0 BAKKEN 6-2018 22 23834 23826 6364 34587 32072 2460 BAKKEN 5-2018 22 23862 24017 7013 27502 27447 0 BAKKEN 4-2018 27 29854 29507 8828 35658 35591 0 BAKKEN 3-2018 9 259 259 1 147 0 125 BAKKEN 2-2018 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Facebook Is Down; The Kennedys Are Gobsmacked -- Wednesday, March 13, 2019 -- T+70, Part 6

Facebook is down; Facebook won't say why.

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Boeing

Without question, President Trump did Boeing a favor by grounding the MAX 8. Had there been another MAX 8 crash, it probably would have meant the end of the MAX 8. Boeing itself couldn't ground its own jet which they say is absolutely safe, but they knew it had to be grounded. This was choreographed very well by both POTUS and Boeing.

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The Bakken? Closed, Due To Global Warming

When I was growing up in Williston, back in the 50s and 60s, I never once remember any tweet about bad weather.  No one posted these stories on Facebook back int the 50s or 60s either.

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Weather, Not Climate

Wednesday, March 13, 2019 -- T+70, Part 5 -- Elon Musk -- Just Fooling -- No Price Cuts -- LOL

I can't make this stuff up. "Elon Musk reverses on Tesla price cuts." That's the headline. Here's the link and the story: never mind, who cares?

By the way, supposedly, Tesla will unveil Model Y, tomorrow, Thursday. I can hardly wait. LOL.

On another note. If you haven't gone out and bought a Marie Callender pie, you still have time.

Tomorrow is "global pi day." March 14. 3/14.

3.14.

3.14159265359

So, 3:14 is the date.

159226 is the time, which in modular 60 is 16:32.26.

So, pie at 4:32.26 p.m. local time.

Disclaimer: I often make simple mistakes when translating 60-modular time. 

And, then, of course, a cocktail (or two) [or three] starting at 5:00 p.m. 

I have two treasured items that I will be passing on to our younger daughter who will pass it on to our middle granddaughter.

The first treasured item: a USAF academy engraved sword.

The second treasured item: my set of four Robert Oppenheimer martini glasses. Perhaps the best cocktail glasses I have ever seen. Period. Dot.  

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Vaccinations

It's pretty sad when we have to re-educate millennials about the efficacy of vaccinations. Been there, done that, no longer care. Fortunately, our grandchildren live in a state where common sense for the most part still prevails. [Exception: the 48% that vote for Beto.]

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Notes To The Granddaughters

I retired in 2007 at the age of 57. I stayed right on schedule; that was planned decades ago.

I have now been retired 12.6 years (twelve years and six months).

The government has paid me a few dollars in pension since 2007.

So, retired 12.6 years. Wow. And 12.6 years with the daughters and granddaughters.

No bucket list, but if I had a bucket list, it would be pretty much completed by now.

I have no regrets how things worked out. There were many forks in the road between 1977 and 2007 and any of the forks would have been fine.
  
There were three geographical forks early on:

• North Dakota
• California 
• Boston

I was fortunate enough to have traveled all three forks for awhile before they converged and then separated into two forks again:

• Yorkshire
• Texas 

I'll leave it at that for now.

Okay, one more item: there was a significant other in my life. I wish everyone had her attitude about personal relationships.  

Wednesday, March 13, 2019 -- T+70, Part 4; XTO, BR, Each With Five More Bakken Permits; And Coming Up: Rose Marie! Whoo-Hoo! WTI Breaks Through $58

Trump grounds Boeing's MAX 8 in the US. The Boeing MAX 8 is now "banned"/grounded around the world. One link here. The big question: will the United States Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit allow this?

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs (back to 65 -- whoo-hoo!):

$58.26	3/13/2019	03/13/2018	03/13/2017	03/13/2016	03/13/2015
Active Rigs	65	58	46	32	112

Ten new permits:

• Operators: XTO (5); BR (5)
• Fields: Capa, Bailey
• Comments:
• XTO has permits for a 5-well Olaf pad in Capa oil field, section 11-155-95
• not to be outdone, BR has permits for a 5-well Gorhman pad in Bailey oil field in lot 6, section 31-147-93

Thirteen permits renewed:

• CLR: thirteen Jersey and Jersey Federal permits in Mountrail County

Rose Marie, Slim Whitman

Listen to the 1935 original, and you will see why Slim Whitman was an absolute genius.

In 1955, "Rose Marie" was a hit for the American country singer Slim Whitman, produced by Lew Chudd, of Imperial Records.

Whitman's recording of the song spent 11 weeks at number one in the UK Singles Chart - setting a record which was not beaten until 1991, when Bryan Adams spent 16 weeks at the top of that chart with "(Everything I Do) I Do It for You".

The previous year, in the US, Whitman had peaked at number five on the Best Sellers in Stores chart.

Another Spectacular MRO Well -- This Time In Antelope Oil Field -- March 13, 2019

The well:

• 33636, 4,405, MRO, Irish USA 41-25TFH, Antelope, Sanish target, 33-053-08047, t1/19; cum 66K 1/19:

Production profile:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
SANISH	1-2019	30	65908	65508	34924	97196	10445	86539
SANISH	12-2018	0	0	413	0	0	0	0
SANISH	11-2018	3	413	0	569	812	0	812

Other four wells on this pad:

• 33639, 3,576, MRO, Gretchan USA 11-30H, Antelope, Sanish target, t12/18; cum 109K 1/19; FFU 30: 64K; [exception to other three wells on this pad: this one runs north-to-south; others run east-to-west;
• 33638, 4,402, MRO, Four Dances USA 41-25TFH, Antelope, Sanish target, t12/18; cum 67K 1/19;
• 33637, 4,181, MRO, Snowman USA 41-25H, Antelope, Sanish target, t12/18; cum 75K 1/19; FFU 30: 47K;
• 33636, see above;

• As noted: all run east-west, parallel to the parent well, #19838, but run in the opposite direction as #19838; one exception: #33639 runs south; perpendicular and absolutely "no relationship" to the other three on this pad; 

Parent well:

• 19838, 1,069, MR), Debbie Baklenko USA 12-26H, 33-053-03330, Antelope, Sanish target, 20 stages; 2.8 million lbs, t6/11; cum 245K 1/19, recent production; re-fracked 9/22/18 - 9/28/2018 but look how small the re-frack was: 15 stages; 3.3 million lbs;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
SANISH	1-2019	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SANISH	12-2018	14	13796	13728	16994	19780	0	18940
SANISH	11-2018	3	115	0	154	451	0	445
SANISH	10-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SANISH	9-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
SANISH	8-2018	31	1378	1503	286	2623	0	2152
SANISH	7-2018	31	1595	1455	358	3171	7	2540
SANISH	6-2018	29	1789	1754	357	3326	41	2696
SANISH	5-2018	16	649	676	153	1311	0	1013
SANISH	4-2018	19	728	742	118	1515	4	1114

Wednesday, March 13, 2019 -- T+70, Part 3

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here.

UNP: up over 2% today; up about $3.40; now trading at $168.25. The 52-week range is $126 t0 $172.

Best metric to follow the health of the US economy? The railroads? I don't know.

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Back to the Bakken

Updating a spectacular MRO well in Reunion Bay. See this note first which includes neighboring wells. Observations:

• a Three Forks, first bench well
• moderate frack, both in number of stages and total amount of proppant
• geologist's report not yet posted
• some problems during casing apparently resolved satisfactorily

The well:

• 33940, 5,602, MRO, Axell USA 34-19TFH, Reunion Bay, 33-061-04119, 45 stages; 6.6 million lbs, t10/18; cum 184K 1/19; ; 10/18 production extrapolates to 85K over 30 days:

Monthly production data:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	1-2019	23	32665	32844	22525	41388	0	38918
BAKKEN	12-2018	26	46589	47101	24750	60171	0	56435
BAKKEN	11-2018	27	60025	59385	31604	68727	0	64752
BAKKEN	10-2018	16	45091	44727	29395	60301	0	57309
BAKKEN	9-2018	2	39	37	929	916	0	799

Global Warming Generates Another "Cyclone Bomb" -- March 13, 2019

First things first: it looks like Flickr.com is now dead. Done. Kaput. It was a great site until taken over by SmugBug. Even folks who paid for their account cannot log in according to social media message traffic. The good news: YouTube, Instagram, and at least a half dozen other sites from which to choose.

Now, back to US weather.

Yes, I prefer "cyclone bomb" to "bomb cyclone." But that's just me.

Link here. Again, this is weather, not climate.

The storm on Wednesday is expected to bring up to 18 inches of snow in parts of Colorado and Wyoming, and possibly one of the strongest storms that Kansas has experienced.

Right in the middle of spring break. God, seriously, has a sense of humor.

Watches, warnings, and floods.

200,000 people without electricity overnight in Dallas-Ft Worth area. Electricity in "my" Starbucks was out -- but fortunately six other Starbuck cafes in the immediate area. And two McDonald's. What a great country.

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Meanwhile, Global Warming In Texas Last Week

Wednesday, March 13, 2019 -- T+70, Part 2

A slow day but a great day.

WTI jumps (see earlier note). Those invested in oil are having a great day.

Oilprice: oil prices spike as EIA confirms inventory draw. Watch for gasoline prices to start going up -- now that we are approaching driving season ... and this:

Gasoline inventories, the EIA reported, fell by 4.6 million barrels in the seven days to March 8, which compared with a decline of 4.2 million barrels in the previous week. Distillate fuel inventories gained a modest 400,000 barrels, after falling by 2.4 million barrels in the last week of February.

In our neighborhood, somewhat on the expensive side, least expensive regular gasoline is going for $2.29/gallon, a significant jump from the $2.09 just a few weeks ago, or whatever it was. [Update: I just "filled up.' $2.49/gallon -- ouch.]

Oh, yes, I have to laugh. Yesterday or earlier this week or whenever it was, a lot of headlines were generated when it was reported that the EIA revised its estimates on US crude oil production for 2019. Headlines appeared to shout that US crude oil production was going to plummet (for any number of reasons). I didn't pay attention to the numbers. I don't think I even read the stories.

But at the linked oilprice article ... how far did the estimates plunge? Hold on to your hats. Here is the revision:

The EIA, in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, said it expected this at a record-high although it revised downwards the actual figure for 2019 by 110,000 bpd to 12.3 million bpd. Next year, the EIA expects U.S. crude oil production to hit 13 million bpd.

You have got to be kidding. That was the downward revision that generated those headlines. Laughable.

False precision. 12 million bopd. 110,000 bopd. 0.9%. That much is sloshing around in a VLCC; a unit train, or a pipeline.

And just a year or so ago, the US was producing a paltry 10 million bopd.

Storms Never Last, Tompall Glaser, song by Jessi Colter
I may replace the video above with Jessi Colter's version later. We'll see.  I hope the angel that collects country western female singers also collects those who blog about the Bakken, all three of us.

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Crazy -- But Not Surprising

Off my radar scope, but apparently there is a fairly "severe" measles outbreak in White Plains, New York.  Link here.

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The Game Of Life

From The God Problem: How a Godless Cosmos Creates, Howar Bloom, c. 2015.

What's a game? A repetition of simple rules to achieve one of two well-defined outcomes. To beat  your opponent and to win by outsmarting, outfoxing, and outlucking her.

Or to lose.

But the rewards and punishments of games are not just human artificialities. They are built into our biology. Win a game and you get more than just two minutes of praise, envy, and attention. If you win, your biology rewards you. It perks you up and tunes your immune system to high. It gives you a dopamine rush, a testosterone boost, and an endorphin lift.

Lose too often and your biology goes into a slump. Your mind gets dazed and foggy and your immune system dials down a notch or two. You are slowed by stress hormones, glucocorticoids. And that's not all. Win and you become more attractive to others.

Lose, and you lose your popularity. So winning or losing is a bigger deal than most game critics think. -- p. 488.

Today, with the jump in the price of WTI, I must be experiencing a dopamine rush, a testosterone boost, and an endorphin lift. Maybe I will have a ahi tuna burger at Hopdoddy for lunch. Or as Don would call it: "bait on a bun." LOL.

March 13, 2019 -- Wednesday -- T+70

Weekly EIA petroleum report: link here.

• US crude oil inventory: decreased by 3.9 million bbls
• WTI jumps: up 1.55%; up 88 cents; trading at $57.75
• US crude oil inventory: at 449.1 million bbls, about 2% above the five year average, and that five year average continues to increase
• US refining capacity: 87.6% capacity -- wow, that's low
• gasoline and distillate fuel production, said to have decreased but in big scheme of things, backgroud noise; essentially flat
• US crude oil imports: at 6.7 million bopd; down by 255,000 bopd -- also background noise but it is 9% less than same four-week period last year

Re-balancing: some rows hidden to keep spreadsheet manageable -- note: we are no closer to re-balancing than we were when I started re-following this metric sixteen weeks ago, November 21, 2019. Sixteen weeks ago, the US had 446.9 million bbls of crude oil in storage; most recent data, one week ago: 449.1 million bbls. The goal is to re-balance to 400 million bbls in storage even though historically the US did just fine with 350 million bbls in storage.

Week	Date	Change w-o-w	In Storage	Weeks to RB to 350 Million Bbls
Week 0	November 21, 2018	4.9	446.9	N/A
Week 1	November 28, 2018	3.6	450.5	N/A
Week 2	December 6, 2018	-7.3	443.2	N/A
Week 9	January 24, 2019	8.0	445.0	Won’t happen i my lifetime
Week 10	January 31, 2019	0.9	445.9	Won’t happen in my lifetime
Week 11	February 6, 2019	1.3	447.2	Won’t happen in my lifetime
Week 12	February 13, 2019	3.6	450.8	Won’t happen in my lifetime
Week 13	February 21, 2019	3.7	454.8	Won’t happen in my lifetime
Week 14	February 27, 2019	-8.6	445.9	Won’t happen in my lifetime
Week 15	March 6, 2019	7.1	452.9	Won’t happen in my lifetime
Week 16	March 13, 2019	-3.9	449.1	Won’t happen in my lifetime
		0.4

Slow day.

For the archives, three stories, cleaning out the in-box:

• developer admits they did some things wrong; Mariner East pipeline project; Energy Transfer Partners; long, involved story; something tells me this won't end well;
• Shell -- Royal Dutch Shell -- aims to become world's largest electric company (paywall) but Bloomberg also has the story; this looks like a big story; may come back to it later;
• Shell --Royal Dutch Shell -- is looking to bulk up its position in the Permian Basin -- Motley Fool -- even if not interested in RDS -- lots of data regarding the Permian

Reminder: one of the best climate sites / wildlife sites on the internet. Incredible photographer. From that site:

Antarctic: some weeks ago, there was a story about a piece of the Antarctic, the size of Manhattan, about ready to break apart from that continent -- another story about global warming. I don't have the link any more. Don't really care. But buried deep in the story: the size of this piece breaking off from the Antarctic does not even make the "top 20" list of such Antarctic events.

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Meanwhile

 

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 A Renaissance Man 

Shel Silverstein.

From wiki:

The phrase "Renaissance man" tends to get overused these days, but apply it to Shel Silverstein and it practically begins to seem inadequate.

Not only has he produced with seeming ease country music hits and popular songs, but he's been equally successful at turning his hand to poetry, short stories, plays, and children's books.

Moreover, his whimsically hip fables, beloved by readers of all ages, have made him a stalwart of bestseller lists. A Light in the Attic, most remarkably, showed the kind of staying power on the New York Times chart—two years, to be precise—that most of the biggest names (John Grisham, Stephen King and Michael Crichton) have never equaled with their blockbusters.

His unmistakable illustrative style is another crucial element to his appeal. Just as no writer sounds like Shel, no other artist's vision is as delightfully, sophisticatingly cockeyed. One can only marvel that he makes the time to respond so kindly to his friends' requests. In the following work [Murder for Revenge (1998)], let's be glad he did. Drawing on his characteristic passion for list making, he shows how the deed is not just in the wish but in the sublimation.

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The Book Page

John Conway.

The Game Of Life.

"Rumpled-looking" mathematician from Cambridge University who would become a fellow of the Royal Society in 1981 and who five years later would migrate to a high-prestige professorship at Princeton.

He was born in Liverpool in 1937. Hold that thought: Liverpool.

His father was a chemistry teacher who taught a few local wannabe musicians. Those musical hopefuls would later form a band called the Beatles.

Says fellow mathematician ... "It's as though John Conway's brain is hard-wired for mathematics ... His mother discovered him at the age of four reciting increasingly higher powers of 2 to himself."

Entering secondary school at age eleven he was asked what he wanted to be when he grew up. He replied that he wanted to be a mathematician at Cambridge. John Conway got his wish. He earned his doctorate at Cambridge in 1964, just as his dad's students, the Fab Four, John, Paul, George, and Ringo, were breaking big time on the record charts.

Liverpool.

From The God Problem: How a Godless Cosmos Creates, Howar Bloom, c. 2015. 

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Collectors

I was talking to a gentleman in Starbucks this morning, a gentleman who collects coins, and thinks nothing of spending $5,400 for a collectable silver dollar. His collection is vast.

After reading those short snippets about Shel Silverstein and John Conway above, I got to thinking (scary thought).

I often think, ask myself, why are we here? Why did God create the universe, why did God create man/woman?

It dawned on me after reading those two short snippets above, of Shel Silverstein and John Conway, and reflecting on the coin collector's comments, that the answer is obvious.

God is a collector (and so are his angels). Some angels collect breeds of dogs. Some collect orchids. Some collect country music lyrics. But God and the angels farther up the heirarchy collect humans. God's collection is the best, of course: Adam, Even, Homer, Shakespeare, Goethe, as a start. There's an angel that collects Hungarian physicists, but God has Hans Bethe. One of the lesser angels who collects American politicians has Ronald Reagan, but God has George Washington and Thomas Jefferson.

Once Adam and Eve were created, God let the fractals take over. No more creations in this universe: God set the parameters, pushed the "on/start" button, and there was light. Now "he" sits back waiting for the next "piece" for his collection.

The fact that so many politicians are in their 80's and 90's today suggests that neither God nor the angels want some of these in their collections.

Clarence, It's a Wonderful World