This is the existing Keystone pipeline recently in the news because of a huge spill.
This is not the Keystone XL pipeline though my hunch is that this is confusing a lot of folks in Washington, DC, thinking Harold built the pipeline without a permit. LOL.
The best "thing" about this link: it takes one to other great links; and, the graphics are great.
See also, Ford, the business model.
Note: while reading this article, remember: "everyone" says the US is headed for a very severe recession in early 2023 to be followed by a long period of American stagflation.
Ford: link here -- long, long story in The Detroit News. The headline puts a positive spin on Ford but --
EVs
Tesla:
Hyundai-Kai:
Ford pickup line up:
All:
Others:
Most interesting, the last paragraph in the story:
Meanwhile, Ford reported that retail orders for 2023 model year vehicles are up 104% compared to orders for 2022 model year vehicles a year ago.
The company, which has increasingly emphasized customers placing orders in advance, has 307,000 orders for '23 vehicles.
Andrew Frick, vice president of sales, distribution and trucks for Ford Blue, said in a statement that growth in the order bank is being driven by demand for the Super Duty and Maverick trucks.
Super Duty has notched a record 152,000 orders since they opened in late October.
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GM in Forbes
GM's Mary Barra confident of complete consumer EV conversion / acceptance.
A quote that surprised me:
“There's a lot of forces that are going to be driving people to electric vehicles. They're fun to drive. They're great vehicles. I've been driving a Bolt and then we own a Hummer and you get used to not going to the gas station really quickly."
Thoughts:
1. I don't picture Mary pumping her own gas;
2. Unless charging at home, waiting in queues to charge an EV certainly is not more pleasant that filling up with gasoline with no wait.
Americans buying an EV is still contingent upon price of gasoline.
From the article:
A survey of more than 2,000 U.S. vehicle owners on their attitudes towards EVs, revealed 56% said they'd consider one if gas prices reached $5.00 a gallon.
Since spiking earlier this year, gas prices have fallen to an average of $3.329 a gallon according to the Triple A. There goes one stimulus to change.
GM goal: all light-duty vehicles to be battery EV by 2035.
Talking her book; I did not a lot of warm fuzzies from the article.
NDSU (1) will play either Incarnate Word (7) or Sacramento State (2). That game is now live on ESPN+. At the end of the first half, Incarnate Word leads 28 - 17.
Incarnate Word is a San Antonio, TX, university.
On the other side of the bracket, SDSU (1) will play Holy Cross (8) tomorrow, Saturday; and, Montana State (4) is crushing William & Mary (5) by a score of 24 - 0 near the end of the second quarter, live on ESPN2. Update: early in the third quarter, 34 - 0.
So, semifinals, right now, looks like:
And the finals:
Top story:
Top international non-energy story:
Top international energy story:
Top national non-energy story:
Top national energy story:
Focus on fracking: most recent edition.
Top North Dakota non-energy story:
Top North Dakota energy story:
Geoff Simon's top North Dakota energy stories:
Bakken economy:
Commentary:
USAF: link here.
USAF will transition from a four/three-bomber fleet to a two-bomber fleet.
Weather: winter storms will be the big story this weekend.
USAF: link here.
Flu: being reported now, a nationwide shortage of "cold and flu" medicine.
Triplepidemic: also being reported, surging cases and deaths -- Covid-19; "seasonal flu"; and, RSV (respiratory syncytial virus -- mostly associated with infants). Previously reported on the blog, a few weeks ago.
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Back to the Bakken
Active rigs: 43.
WTI: $71.02.
Natural gas: $6.245.
Two new permits, #39477 - #39478, inclusive:
Eight producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
One should poll these soon-to-be-idled 1,200 workers, the announcement just before Christmas, their opinions on EVs.
A consistent theme on the blog: the transition to EVs is going to be very, very painful and very, very expensive.
From CNBC just before the news cycle ended Friday, this announcement;
DETROIT – Stellantis said Friday that it plans to indefinitely idle a Jeep plant in Illinois, starting early next year, to cut costs as it invests in electric vehicles.
The plant will cease production as of February 28, 2023. The more than 1,200 workers at the facility, which produces Jeep Cherokee SUVs, will be placed on indefinite layoffs, the company said.
More from the article:
“Our industry has been adversely affected by a multitude of factors like the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and the global microchip shortage, but the most impactful challenge is the increasing cost related to the electrification of the automotive market,” Stellantis said.
The Illinois plant has only been running on one of three assembly shifts. It has sporadically been idled during the coronavirus pandemic and ongoing semiconductor chip shortage.
Cherokee sales were down by about 61% through the third quarter of this year, more than any other vehicle in Jeep’s lineup.
Cherokee sales were down the most? At the low end, price point? This suggests Jeep owners are wealthy and willing to pay "up" for the high-end Jeep -- let's say the Jeep Grand Wagoneer which runs about $90,000.
The Cherokee starts at about $35K.
XOM sees a doubling of its free cash flow by 2027, while Stellantis nixes an iconic Jeep brand to help pay for transition to EVs.
Coincidentally, XOM increased its quarterly dividend this quarter, and the pay date for that first increased dividend: today. LOL. How coincidental.
At last count there are no less than a gazillion auto manufacturers racing to bring EVs to market. Oil E&P? Seven major operators. A dozen or so tier two American operators, not all of which are publicly traded.
Another open-book test for investors.
Stellantis is down about 25% for the year (52-weeks), dropping close to 3% today.
Disclaimer: this is not an investment
site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or
relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have
read here.
All my posts are done quickly:
there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of
my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find
typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
By the way, on a completely different note, PFE announced that it increased its quarterly dividend. Not by much, but still an increase. Stellantis does not have a dividend to increase. XOM, as noted, just increased its dividend
Updates
Later, 5:26 p.m. CT: being reported on nationwide news tonight -- a nationwide shortage of OTC cold and flu medication. I wonder if ivermectin is available? Just joking.
Original Post
All graphs "in agreement."
Tell me again vaccinations don't work.
We continue to hear that daughter wells do not do as well as parent wells.
This well has hit 500,000 bbls crude oil cumulative:
| Pool | Date | Days | BBLS Oil | Runs | BBLS Water | MCF Prod | MCF Sold | Vent/Flare |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SANISH | 10-2022 | 31 | 2290 | 2358 | 691 | 20053 | 19693 | 61 |
| SANISH | 9-2022 | 29 | 2536 | 2360 | 582 | 19643 | 19299 | 70 |
| SANISH | 8-2022 | 22 | 1192 | 1366 | 437 | 12248 | 11668 | 374 |
| SANISH | 7-2022 | 31 | 2234 | 2266 | 693 | 21129 | 11556 | 9277 |
| SANISH | 6-2022 | 30 | 2258 | 2186 | 629 | 21907 | 14040 | 7587 |
| SANISH | 5-2022 | 29 | 3326 | 3457 | 619 | 24044 | 17637 | 6130 |
| SANISH | 4-2022 | 23 | 2324 | 2016 | 674 | 15780 | 15573 | 0 |
| SANISH | 3-2022 | 31 | 3286 | 3611 | 1038 | 16976 | 16703 | 0 |
| SANISH | 2-2022 | 25 | 2827 | 2604 | 480 | 12666 | 11988 | 437 |
| SANISH | 1-2022 | 29 | 2197 | 2188 | 408 | 10345 | 7833 | 2280 |
| SANISH | 12-2021 | 29 | 2387 | 2359 | 476 | 11981 | 11731 | 0 |
The parent well has just come off line suggesting new activity at that well or in the area:
| Pool | Date | Days | BBLS Oil | Runs | BBLS Water | MCF Prod | MCF Sold | Vent/Flare |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SANISH | 10-2022 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| SANISH | 9-2022 | 5 | 130 | 313 | 3 | 207 | 203 | 4 |
| SANISH | 8-2022 | 2 | 88 | 0 | 2 | 180 | 180 | 0 |
| SANISH | 7-2022 | 20 | 771 | 766 | 17 | 1834 | 1834 | 0 |
| SANISH | 6-2022 | 30 | 952 | 1055 | 1088 | 2187 | 2187 | 0 |
| SANISH | 5-2022 | 29 | 1231 | 1019 | 1391 | 2905 | 2905 | 0 |
| SANISH | 4-2022 | 7 | 245 | 503 | 132 | 420 | 420 | 0 |
| SANISH | 3-2022 | 30 | 1300 | 1126 | 199 | 2587 | 2587 | 0 |
| SANISH | 2-2022 | 11 | 441 | 486 | 80 | 1140 | 1140 | 0 |
Some people argue that the number of "new cases" is a function of and correlates directly with the amount of testing
First chart: sorted, from highest to lowest based on "new cases."
Second chart: sorted, from highest to lowest based on "tests / million population."
Third chart: sorted, from highest to lowest, based on total cases / million.
Pre-market:
From Bloomberg's daily note:
It isn’t too early to say it’s been a wild year. Few, outside of US intelligence, predicted Russia invading Ukraine (again). Perhaps fewer still had Morocco knocking Spain out of the World Cup. But I doubt anyone at all predicted 2022 ending with oil prices down and the cost of batteries going up.
The pop in battery prices is all supply-led, as prices for raw materials, lithium included, have soared. Demand is not the problem: BNEF has passenger electric vehicle sales climbing 69% this year. Continued inflation could start tugging at demand. But the industry’s capacity for tweaking chemistries and improving manufacturing remains, as do the structural incentives for electrification. Nothing is certain, of course, but we can probably count on batteries being cheaper in a few years than they are today.
Chart of the day, same source:
Planned utility-scale storage projects would more than triple the amount currently operating in the US by the end of 2025, according to the Energy Information Administration’s latest monthly survey of generators.
California would remain the leading state, but Texas, which could use more batteries to cap power-price spikes on hot summer days, is emerging as a close contender.
That may help explain why NRG Energy Inc., which runs Texas peaker plants that capitalize on those price spikes, made a $5.2 billion pivot into home-management systems this week with its offer for Vivint Smart Home Inc.
Me? My opinions are diametrically opposite of those above.
Vivint?
I know nothing about Vivint, but looking at the Yahoo!Finance chart,
From Bloomberg's daily note:
It isn’t too early to say it’s been a wild year. Few, outside of US intelligence, predicted Russia invading Ukraine (again). Perhaps fewer still had Morocco knocking Spain out of the World Cup. But I doubt anyone at all predicted 2022 ending with oil prices down and the cost of batteries going up.
India: the story today --
Keystone spill:
Either *someone* has heard that the leak is small/outage short-lived, or, more likely, this market isn't in the mood for price-positive news at the moment.
Or it just doesn't matter.
Later: wow, wow, wow. The spill turned out to be one of the largest ever onshore spills in the US -- 14,000 bbls. That contributor over at twitter had no idea what he was talking about. My comment, "or it just doesn't matter" -- right on target.
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Back to the Bakken
The Far Side: link here.
WTI: $72.07.
Natural gas: $5.948.
Sunday, December 11, 2022: 23 for the month, 132 for the quarter, 676 for the year.
38487, conf, Hess, GO-Johnson-156-98-2635H-5,
Saturday, December 10, 2022: 22 for the month, 131 for the quarter, 675 for the year.
38897, conf, CLR, Bonney 7-3HSL1,
RBN Energy: Tier 3 gasoline mandate tests refiners, US octane production, part 2.
A potentially important factor affecting the supply of octane — the primary yardstick of gasoline quality and price — has been lurking in the background over the last few years. The Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) Tier 3 gasoline sulfur standard applies to all refiners and importers who deliver gasoline to the U.S. market, and while delayed compliance requirements and the onset of the pandemic have blunted its full impact to refiners and consumers so far, the implications of meeting the new standard are beginning to take shape. In today’s RBN blog, we explain how the Tier 3 specs are linked to octane supply, where octane destruction comes into play, and how refiners are adapting to the octane-sulfur squeeze.
