Electricity: $500/MWH -- Unprecedented Mix Energy Source -- Oil: 24% -- Demand Normal -- December 23, 2022

Updates

Decmber 24, 2022, link here:

Original Post

ISO NE: link here.

Through November, 2023, Ford Has Sold Only 13,258 F-150 Lightnings -- Ramping Up Too 150,000 Units By Next Fall -- December, 2022

Investors.

EVs not for me.

Why Rivian hit an all-time low today:

• perfect storm:
• expensive;
• in tough times, investors want "return" (dividends)
• recession won't treat EVs well
• dire;

F-150 Lightning:

• new price hike (reported earlier); link here;
• the latest pricing increase – at least the third this year – comes as Ford attempts to expand production of the electric pickup to 150,000 units by next fall;
• the company earlier this week said it remains on track to do so, as it recently added a third shift of workers to a Michigan plant producing the vehicle. 
• “Demand for this breakthrough vehicle is strong and continues to grow, we will continue to monitor pricing through the model year,” the spokeswoman said in the emailed statement. 
• through the end of November, Ford had only sold 13,258 F-150 Lightnings.

Most EV companies had "down day" on the market today; on a day the market was otherwise up. 

Tesla, link here:

Tesla stock fell another 8.8% on Thursday, yesterday, December 22, 2022, bringing its year-to-date losses to 64%.

‌

With this decline, more than $800 billion in market capitalization has been erased from the electric carmaker. The current 69.7% drawdown from its most recent high reached in late 2021 is the largest in Tesla's corporate history.

‌

And this slide has been good news to short-sellers.

‌

Data from S3 Partners published Thursday showed that through Wednesday's close, Tesla was the year's most profitable short — or stock traders were betting against — with mark-to-market profits totaling $15.03 billion so far this year. And these figures don't reflect Thursday's decline.

********************************
Nutcracker

Geoff Simon's Top Stories For The Week -- December 24, 2022

Quick connects. 

Last week's blizzard shut down one-third of Bakken total production.

Land Board completes acreage adjustment.

• $130 million returned to private mineral owners
• this was Part II of the 2-part adjustment
• issue: ordinary high water mark west of the Fort Berthold reservation
• Part I: east of US Highway 85
• Part II: west of US Highway 85
• surveys here;

Basin Electric to add 350 miles of high-voltage transmission in western ND over the next five years; archived.

• one of the first phases: Neset-to-Northshore; New Town to Tioga
• expected to be energized January, 2023 (next month)

North Dakota population closes in on 780,000

• a new estimate released by the U.S. Census Bureau shows that North Dakota’s population reached a new all-time high of 779,261 residents as of July 1, 2022.
• the 2021 estimate indicated population had declined.

Week 51: December 18, 2022 -- December 24, 2022

Top US energy story of the year:

Top story:

• Joe Biden is still president

Top international non-energy story:

• Russian-Ukraine war continues
• Zelensky makes first known trip outside of Ukraine since war began
• visits President Biden in DC
  

Top international energy story:

• Russia says it may cut production by 500,000 bopd

Top national non-energy story:

• peaked already? quadruple threat: Covid-19; seasonal flu; pneumococcal pneumonia, and, RSV
• Title 42 -- temporary injunction; "southern surge" -- public health issue -- Covid-19
  

Top national energy story: 

• WTI flirts with $80 by end of week on news that Russia might cut production
  

Javier Blas:

• 
  

Focus on fracking: most recent edition.

Top North Dakota non-energy story:

• Polar vortex shuts down 1/3rd Bakken production
  

Top North Dakota energy story:

Geoff Simon's top North Dakota energy stories:

• Quick connects.
  

Bakken economy:

Commentary:

Entertainment:

Playing Dice With Mother Nature -- December 23, 2022

Note: we're doing our part. Heat / furnace is turned off; it's been off all day except for a.m. when we got up to take off the chill, and then about fifteen minutes earlier this afternoon. But off now and expect to keep it off until tomorrow morning. Lots of blankets on the bed.

Breaking: 7:07 p.m. CT -- it's now being reported tens of thousands of folks are without electricity in Tarrant County (Ft Worth), Texas, our county. There are no storms here, so it must be ERCOT grid unable to keep up with demand.

Slightly earlier: link here.

***********************************
Original Post

ERCOT.

Holy mackerel -- this is going to be close. Earlier today it looked great but it looks like the wind if dying down. It's going to be really, really close.

Playing dice with Mother Nature. This is really, really crazy. 

Someone Else Watches ISO NE -- Twenty Percent Of Electricity In "Green" New England Is Being Produced By Oil -- December 23, 2022

Link here.

ISO NE:

Twenty percent of electricity in "green" New England is being produced by oil.

I wonder if the average New Englander knows that.

Europeans, Russia Working Around Sanctions -- December 23, 2022

Link here. 

The Road To California -- December 23, 2022

Link here.

Random Production Update For The Enerplus Seal Well In Antelope-Sanish -- December 23, 2022

The well:

• 37728, loc/A, Enerplus, Seal 151-94-33D-28H, Antelope-Sanish, first production, 11/21; t--; cum 113K 3/22; cum 229K 10/22;
  

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
SANISH	10-2022	31	14694	14528	8124	47666	45429	64
SANISH	9-2022	30	15204	15218	8527	38138	34865	115
SANISH	8-2022	30	22448	22395	11987	51776	47305	414
SANISH	7-2022	31	23032	23044	15739	44217	40523	3
SANISH	6-2022	30	24375	24423	18999	54334	50400	197
SANISH	5-2022	22	12391	12314	33696	25449	22786	81
SANISH	4-2022	10	4373	4379	16192	9767	8147	168
SANISH	3-2022	26	27356	27361	18611	61618	58122	89
SANISH	2-2022	28	41655	41634	35520	80736	76323	403
SANISH	1-2022	11	19166	19165	16240	33698	31350	603
SANISH	12-2021	0	0	3	0	0	0	0
SANISH	11-2021	12	24373	24322	28717	36387	33085	1347

Random Update Production For An Ovintiv Johnson Well In South Tobacco Garden -- December 23, 2022

The well:

• 38596, conf-->loc/A, Ovintiv, Johnson 150-99-34-27-5HLW, South Tobacco Garden, t--; cum 208K 10/22; at wellhead, 208K x $70 = $14.6 million in eight months;
  

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	10-2022	31	12536	12524	19583	45306	43749	1427
BAKKEN	9-2022	30	15442	15474	22408	45037	43510	1395
BAKKEN	8-2022	31	18583	18503	25634	50456	47304	3021
BAKKEN	7-2022	31	22077	22023	30080	56862	53203	3519
BAKKEN	6-2022	30	27816	27891	32773	51229	48313	2782
BAKKEN	5-2022	31	21926	22119	42736	61376	52948	8265
BAKKEN	4-2022	30	40456	40729	47411	68481	61083	7165
BAKKEN	3-2022	28	48990	48190	66168	78286	75880	2177

Random Production Update For One Of The Incredible CLR Charolais Wells -- December 23, 2022

This page won't be updated. This well is tracked elsewhere.

• 37901, loc/A, CLR, Charolais South Federal 6-10H, Elm Tree, t--; cum 190K 9/22;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	10-2022	31	22367	22350	11465	70621	69909	294
BAKKEN	9-2022	30	23093	23102	11472	61986	61134	466
BAKKEN	8-2022	31	22959	22988	11350	45348	44691	451
BAKKEN	7-2022	31	35231	35248	14546	65284	64094	984
BAKKEN	6-2022	30	35907	35947	13647	58946	58254	500
BAKKEN	5-2022	31	40994	40881	16328	61376	59688	1688
BAKKEN	4-2022	27	31453	31389	14653	45315	44376	939
BAKKEN	3-2022	4	401	401	2201	844	0	844

CLR Bang Wells In Cedar Coulee Have Been Completed -- A CLR Whitman Well With An 80x Jump In Production -- December 23, 2022

There is so much work left to be done in the Bakken. It's all about TOC. 

The Bang wells are tracked elsewhere.

Initial production of Bang #12.

• 38609, conf-->drl/A, CLR, Bang 12-4H, Cedar Coulee, t--; cum 90K 10/22;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	10-2022	31	50232	50545	20096	53011	52158	637
BAKKEN	9-2022	25	39286	38835	17388	43366	40918	2448
BAKKEN	8-2022	1	567	567	1028	458	0	458

Parent well:

• 16797, 108, CLR, Bang 1-33H, Cedar Coulee, t4/08; cum 271K 10/22; recent production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	10-2022	31	34679	34024	47258	43075	42642	214
BAKKEN	9-2022	5	1722	1675	5530	2183	2179	2
BAKKEN	8-2022	1	51	79	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2022	17	3907	4225	1511	4824	4667	0
BAKKEN	3-2022	17	5069	4818	2902	5191	4979	0
BAKKEN	2-2022	24	6372	6654	2750	8244	7946	0
BAKKEN	1-2022	31	11550	11608	5835	14730	14311	0
BAKKEN	12-2021	31	16004	16229	8969	19237	18818	0
BAKKEN	11-2021	30	20533	20341	19563	22195	21790	0
BAKKEN	10-2021	6	3319	3019	5476	3288	3207	0
BAKKEN	9-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2021	1	100	0	1	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2021	30	457	586	117	888	496	0
BAKKEN	5-2021	31	500	524	82	959	540	0
BAKKEN	4-2021	30	477	576	78	897	505	0
BAKKEN	3-2021	31	515	312	93	925	506	0

A Bang-TF parent well:

• 18636, 633, CLR, Bang 2-33T, Cedar Coulee, t5/10; cum 250K 10/22;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	10-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2022	1	41	79	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2022	25	2584	3016	1332	2731	2407	0
BAKKEN	4-2022	29	3071	3183	1468	2940	2512	77
BAKKEN	3-2022	31	3664	3884	1877	3531	3117	0

Just to the east, the incredible CLR Whitman wells. An early parent Whitman well:

• 17061, 664, CLR, Whitman 11-34H, Oakdale, t6/08; cum 585K 10/22; recent production; 31K over 18 days extrapolates to 52K over one month; 52K / 656 = 80x jump in production:
  

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	10-2022	31	14261	14314	12380	18998	18757	2
BAKKEN	9-2022	30	36194	36217	25834	39966	39770	196
BAKKEN	8-2022	18	31218	31087	17708	25267	23665	1602
BAKKEN	7-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2021	14	236	553	7	387	275	0
BAKKEN	8-2021	31	656	550	52	1241	822	0
BAKKEN	7-2021	26	584	756	21	1034	696	0
BAKKEN	6-2021	30	713	579	57	1247	843	0

Whiting's Lacey Well In The Sanish -- December 23, 2022

200K in ten months = 200K x $60 at the well head = $12 million. 

The well:

• 37553, conf, Whiting, Lacey 13-10-2H, Sanish, t--; cum 203K 10/22;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	10-2022	12	5000	5050	4540	7169	6985	184
BAKKEN	9-2022	30	12444	12562	6894	19595	19250	345
BAKKEN	8-2022	23	10428	10514	6635	17727	11069	6658
BAKKEN	7-2022	31	17395	17466	11240	30470	29936	534
BAKKEN	6-2022	30	17246	17323	13797	23095	22120	975
BAKKEN	5-2022	31	23347	23248	14100	25449	24692	757
BAKKEN	4-2022	23	18125	18318	12284	18798	16042	2756
BAKKEN	3-2022	31	27096	27120	16114	23606	22542	1064
BAKKEN	2-2022	28	26801	26629	18298	22016	18346	3670
BAKKEN	1-2022	31	31241	31269	25963	24790	21986	2804
BAKKEN	12-2021	30	13587	13073	31800	5739	5739	0

The parent well, recent production:

• 18953, 2,534, Whiting, Lacey 12-10H, Sanish, t10/10; cum 338K 10/22;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	10-2022	31	1896	1877	874	1317	1223	32
BAKKEN	9-2022	30	1760	1793	891	1258	1177	21
BAKKEN	8-2022	31	2080	2059	785	831	480	289
BAKKEN	7-2022	31	1643	1611	1015	789	714	13
BAKKEN	6-2022	4	106	103	35	151	138	6
BAKKEN	5-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2021	0	0	108	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2021	29	883	801	214	931	931	0
BAKKEN	3-2021	31	1102	1168	214	1251	1189	0
BAKKEN	2-2021	28	1116	1041	238	1037	981	0
BAKKEN	1-2021	31	1300	1445	231	1332	1270	0
BAKKEN	12-2020	30	1135	1059	240	1345	1287