Monday, February 16, 2026

Gobsmacked With Emotions -- February 7, 2026

Locator: 49927ARCHIVES.

Over the weekend, I attended a funeral for an extended family member in southern California.

I hadn't / haven't been back to this part of the country in years. I can't remember when I was last here. We had a house near here many years ago but also sold it many years ago.

Picking up the Enterprise rental car at the airport, I was gobsmacked with emotions. There is just something so different about walking out of a southern California terminal. Fortunately I flew into a regional airport. Small terminal -- the entire terminal I assume was about the size of one terminal at DFW where this flight began. There are two parking garages but both quite small compared to those at DFW. 

The first thing I noted driving out of the parking structure were the palm trees, also the first thing I noticed when driving into Los Angeles in 1970 -- that would have been 55+ years ago. Wow, a lot of water under that bridge.

Talking to a close family friend at the memorial service, I said that the geography, the streets, the buildings have not changed all these years. The only thing that has changed is the culture. And, of course, I was "aware" of that only from watching and reading the news. One wouldn't notice that in these upper-middle income, predominantly white neighborhoods. The freeways are still six lanes wide in both directions and the traffic moved slowly.

In the big scheme of thing, southern California is/was probably the most important part of my life: school, coming of age. 

I went off the grid during this period, at least as far as blogging or replying to any e-mails. Of course, I continued to lurk / surf in the free moments I had. I know I will get back to blogging, but it may take awhile. I really don't know.

I've lost interest in a lot of mundane things, and most of what I blog / blog about is mundane.

 

I have no plans to watch the Super Bowl tomorrow. I assume I watched Super Bowl III, back in the year I graduated from high school, but I do not recall, and that was a most historic Super Bowl ever. Interestingly enough, among some "experts," it did not even rank among the top five "best Super Bowls ever." 

For the past few days, morning talk shows -- except for sports show like Get Up! and First Take -- the talk is all about the food. In fact, if you had no knowledge of what the Super Bowl is all about, watching television three days prior would lead one to believe the even will be hosted on the "Food Channel," and that the event would somehow center around cooking. Mostly chicken wings.

Number 2 on the list above had the same two teams as are playing tomorrow. 

That list also includes the Dallas Cowboys, losing back in 1979. The Cowboys' last appearance (and victory) in the Super Bowl was 1996. I don't recall having watched that. I would have been in my second year in the USAF at which time I incredibly busy. I was very likely working that night. I didn't keep up with my journaling those years. 

Our first child was born a month after the 1979 Super Bowl and I was working seven days a week then, at least ten hours a day some months. [Wow, that's hard to believe 7 days x 10 hours / day = 70 hours; there were periods before that I was working 80+ hours a week.] I never considered it work; it was always a journey. I guess the journey pretty much came to an end in 2004 or thereabouts, three years before I retired from the USAF.

Anyway, enough of this. For the time being, I will remain off the grid, not posting blogs, not surfing social media, and avoiding e-mail. 

But, wow, now sitting in this relatively empty house in southern California, just a mile or so off the coast, in a walled off plot of land, wow, it's peaceful. I would go nuts living out here.

Micron -- Barron's -- February 7, 2026

Locator: 49929MICRON.

Micron's on a tear: link here

Don't fret the small stuff. 

****************************
A Bubble?

For those suggesting this might be a bubble, or this looks like a bubble, ask yourself this: are you using AI more or less now than you did six years ago? Six months ago? Six days ago?

The Reason Behind Broadcom's Recent Surge In Share Price -- February 7, 2026

Locator: 49928BROADCOM.

Broadcom shares surged around February 4, 2026, following Google's announcement of an aggressive 2026 CAPEX plan with estimates ranging up to $185 billion, marking one of the largest AI infrastructure builds in history.

More broadly, the rapid scaling of custom ASIC demand.

Broadcom is a primary beneficiary because it designs and produces AI acceleerator chips (TPUs) for Google. 

Broadcom predicts AI semiconductor revenue for 1Q26 at 100% y/y growth with total AI-related revenue for 2026 expected to exceed $50 billion.

While Nvidia dominates general-purpose AI chips, Broadcom has solidified its position as the leader in custom "bespoke" AI chips, with a reported $73 billion backlog in early 2026. 

This surge is part of a broader, long-term trend where Broadcom has moved from a diversified chipmaker to a cornerstone AI infrastructure company, with analysts forecasting a $3 trillion market cap by 2027. 

Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week --- February 8, 2026

Locator: 49929WELLS.

Wednesday, February 18, 2026: 28 for the month, 81 for the quarter, 81 for the year,
41960, conf, Kraken, Charity 3-19-15 1H, 
41500, conf, Enerplus, MHA Memphis 4894 41-34 3BU,

Tuesday, February 17, 2026: 26 for the month, 79 for the quarter, 79 for the year,
41962, conf, Kraken, Charity 3-10-15 3H
41961, conf, Kraken, Charity 3-10-15 2H, 
41878, conf, Petro-Hunt, State 159-92-36D-24-3H, 

Monday, February 16, 2026: 23 for the month, 76 for the quarter, 76 for the year,
41963, conf, Kraken, Charity 3-10-15 4H, 

Sunday, February 15, 2026: 22 for the month, 75 for the quarter, 75 for the year,
41333, conf, Hess, BW-Stoveland-LE-149-100-1003H-1, 

Saturday, February 14, 2026: 21 for the month, 74 for the quarter, 74 for the year,
41816, conf, BR, Rolla 6C, 

Friday, February 13, 2026: 20 for the month, 73 for the quarter, 73 for the year,
41353, conf, Hess, GO-Beck Living TR-156-98-2017H-2, 

Thursday, February 12, 2026: 19 for the month, 72 for the quarter, 72 for the year, 
None.

Wednesday, February 11, 2026: 19 for the month, 72 for the quarter, 72 for the year,
41240, conf, Hunt, Clearwater 157-90-13-12H-2, 
41239, conf, Hunt, Clearwater 157-90-13-12H-1, 
41005, conf, Hunt, Palermo 156-90-2-31H-2, 

Tuesday, February 10, 2026: 16 for the month, 69 for the quarter, 69 for the year,
None.

Monday, February 9, 2026: 16 for the month, 69 for the quarter, 69 for the year,
41815, conf, BR, Rolla 6B,
41354, conf, Hess, GO-Dustin Brose-156-98-2932H-3,

Sunday, February 8, 2026: 14 for the month, 67 for the quarter, 67 for the year,
41335, conf, Hess, BW-Stoveland-149-1003H-4,

Saturday, February 7, 2026: 13 for the month, 66 for the quarter, 66 for the year,
None.

Only One Of These Companies is Not Chasing Cash -- February 7, 2026

Locator: 49925MARKET.

Link here

These six companies, combined, will bring in $2+ trillion worth of revenue in CY25, just passed.

Only one of these six companies is not chasing cash:

  • Apple, $435.6 billion 
  • Google, $402.8 billion 
  • Microsoft, $305.5 billion 
  • Amazon, $716.98 billion 
  • Meta Platforms, $201 billion 
  • Tesla, $94.8 billion 

The one is bold, #1 in revenue and it is chasing cash.

It's another one of the six that is not chasing cash. 

Amazon's Moat And Chatbot -- An Update -- February 7, 2026

Locator: 49927AMAZONCAPEX.

See graphic this link. 

Consumer-facing chatbots (shopping and assistance):

  • Rufus
  • Alexa+
  • Customer service bots

Business and developer chatbots (AWS):

  • Amazon Q
  • Amazon Lex
  • Amazon Q in Connect

The above chatbots are powered by Amazon's own foundational models (such as Amazon Nove) and models from Anthropic (like Claude) which are accessible via Amazon Bedrock.

Investing Club -- February 7, 2026

Locator: 49926INVESTINGCLUB.

I've never liked the idea of belonging to an investing club. Early on, decades ago when I was just starting out, I though the idea of an investment club was a great idea.

But over time, I learned I was too opinionated to be a good member of such a club. 

But now I have different ideas, thinking about my grandchildren, how I would do it. Obviouslyi they would need to be at least in junior or senior year of high school, and preferably well into college. 

The meetings would last about an hour each week. More often if the members enjoyed the meetings.

They would be set up on the quarter system like Stanford, or the semester system like most other schools.

Initial sessions would be TED talks by each member telling their investment journey -- where they had been, where they are now, and where they are headed.

Probably two TED talks each week.

Once the TED talks had been completed, the one-hour sessions would be divided in half. The first 30 minutes a didactic session on investing, the one that the older granddaughters participated in with their father and with me. 

The second thirty minutes would be on practical matters, making sure members had a checking / savings account, a brokerage account, and a Roth IRA, to get them started. 

The semester would follow that format through to the end.

The second semester, the same group would meet again, same format. I assume the didactic portion would have reached some sort of end and we could now move on to a book club. We would assign two books for the second semester and tackle the books in bite-size bites, a couple chapters at a time. The second thirty minutes again would be dealing with practical matters but now we could get into more specific discussions on investing. 

The key that makes this different than investing clubs of which I am familiar: there would not be a common "pot of money" or a "investment club account" in which folks would buy shares, and members would decide, as a group, which stocks to buy, hold, and sell.

Members would have their own brokerage accounts and manage those accounts themselves, though other members would offer as much or as little advice as an individual member would want. 

********************************** 
Investing or Trading

By its very name, "an investment club," means that members of the club would concentrate on buying with the intention of holding for a "long" time. "Long time" would mean different things to different folks but since this club would be a by yourself / member of a group, it would be up to the individual member how he/she would define "long." But active trading would be discouraged, I suppose.  

I'm not a member of Jim Cramer's CNBC investment club but I bet it's quite similar. But "knowing" Jim Cramer, it's probably not a lot different than his television program, "Mad Money." 

Legacy Fund -- January, 2026, Deposits -- February 7, 2026

Locator: 49930LEGACYFUND.

Link here


Initial Production Data For Wells Coming Off Confidential This Next Week -- February 8, 2026

Locator: 49930WELLS.

  • 41960, conf, Kraken, Charity 3-19-15 1H, 
  • 41500, conf, Enerplus, MHA Memphis 4894 41-34 3BU, McGregory Buttes, 
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
12-20252082415914
11-20252417522130
10-20253069627931
9-20252934824522
8-20251455011624
  • 41962, conf, Kraken, Charity 3-10-15 3H, Boxcar Butte, npd, 
  • 41961, conf, Kraken, Charity 3-10-15 2H, Boxcar Butte, npd, 
  • 41878, conf, Petro-Hunt, State 159-92-36D-24-3H, Cottonwood, npd, 
  • 41963, conf, Kraken, Charity 3-10-15 4H, Boxcar Butte, npd, 
  • 41333, conf, Hess, BW-Stoveland-LE-149-100-1003H-1, Ellsworth,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
12-20251041325995
11-20251698031170
10-20252098429377
9-20252893147503
8-20251843127511
  • 41816, conf, BR, Rolla 6C, Elidah, npd, 
  • 41353, conf, Hess, GO-Beck Living TR-156-98-2017H-2, Wheelock, 
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
12-20251412718977
11-20251192522025
10-20251833430926
9-20251265037582
8-20251259515290
  • 41240, conf, Hunt, Clearwater 157-90-13-12H-2, Clear Water, 
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
12-2025144102828
11-2025138191408
10-2025128473708
9-2025166826613
8-202551891921
  • 41239, conf, Hunt, Clearwater 157-90-13-12H-1, Clear Water, 
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
12-2025129252963
11-202596461094
10-2025105083136
9-2025126214895
8-202560311866
  • 41005, conf, Hunt, Palermo 156-90-2-31H-2, Ross, 
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
12-2025208064916
11-2025225944565
10-2025252208431
9-2025201156499
8-2025165362614

  • 41815, conf, BR, Rolla 6B, Elidah, npd,
  • 41354, conf, Hess, GO-Dustin Brose-156-98-2932H-3, Wheelock, 
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
12-20251524923787
11-20251404926430
10-20252322039490
9-20251323839948
8-20251976820502

  • 41335, conf, Hess, BW-Stoveland-149-1003H-4, Ellsworth, 
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
12-20251553726635
11-20251664826622
10-20251476219690
9-20252341731912
8-20252644345850